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Tim Bogar, the A's, and Vertigo


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#1 mabrowndog


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:21 PM

Mother of Christ. Sending Victor (whose toe & foot are still sore as fuck) to the plate all the way from 1st when both Patterson and Pennington have strong arms??? Are you shitting me???

The cameras cut away from Patterson just as he picked up the ball from the carom off the wall. Martinez was still 4 or 5 steps away from third base at that moment.

Edited by mabrowndog, 03 June 2010 - 01:22 PM.


#2 findguapo

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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:22 PM

Another horrible send. Bad throw, great pick and tag, ZERO OUTS. If it was a better throw, Suzuki would have caught it and been standing there waiting for Martinez. How can you send Victor Martinez, with zero outs? If there were 2 outs, I can see it, but with no outs, that is a horrible, horrible send.

#3 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:23 PM

Another terrible call by Bogar, and he seems completely oblivious to the situation. You would have had 2nd and 3rd, nobody out, with Beltre coming up. Instead, he sends a clearly laboring Martinez- your starting catcher who hasn't been 100%- and has him thrown out by several feet and ending up with runner on 2nd, 1 out, and no one scores. This guy is beyond awful.

#4 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:24 PM

QUOTE (mabrowndog @ Jun 3 2010, 02:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Mother of Christ. Sending Victor (whose toe & foot are still sore as fuck) to the plate all the way from 1st when both Patterson and Pennington have strong arms??? Are you shitting me???

It wasn't even a good throw ... and Martinez was STILL out by a good margin. A good throw would've beat him to the plate by 10 feet.

Are we reaching a point where players are just going to start ignoring Bogar's instructions? He doesn't seem to have any judgment as to which players to send at what times. Martinez isn't even a fast guy when he's healthy. Sending him with a bad foot is being totally ignorant of the situation and of context.

#5 reggiecleveland


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:27 PM

That isn't just a bad read. If he is thinking at all, slow guy, none out, injured very valuable guy, close game, eqarly in the game. Everything points to not sending him.

#6 The Gray Eagle


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:33 PM

I'm not even watching live, but when gametracker showed this, it was obviously yet another bad send: "no outs. Youkilis doubled to deep left, Martinez out at home, Youkilis to third." I came over here to see if there was anything weird going on, if somehow maybe it wasn't Bogar's fault, but it seems to be on him yet again.

I mean NO OUTS. You absolutely can't get the runner thrown out at home like that. A slow runner nursing an injury on a hit to left makes it even worse, but the key factor is NO OUTS. That's really all you need to know. That is a fact that Bogar knew before the play even started. This is ridiculous, there's no excuse for this to keep happening.

It's like John Henry bought a $100,000 car but a cheap turn signal keeps shorting out and sending the car into the shop like 4 or 5 times. Time to get a new turn signal and put a stop to this nonsense.

#7 SaveBooFerriss


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:37 PM

At what point do the Red Sox simply decide that Bogar is not good at this job? All the evidence suggests that he isn't. How long can they keep their heads in the sand and pretend this isn't a problem?

Coaching 3b requires processing of information quickly and making snap decisions. No amount of experience can overcome not being able to properly make those sanp decisions. Haven't they seen enough to decide that this is not a good fit for Bogar.

#8 mabrowndog


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:40 PM

I'm... I'm...

...just fucking speechless right now.

#9 soxfaninyankeeland


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:41 PM

A worthy successor to Kim and Sveum.

#10 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:41 PM

WOW. Again, not a close play.; and NOBODY OUT. Would have had bases loaded, NOBODY OUT. This guy doesn't have a fucking clue.



#11 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:45 PM

QUOTE (Rudy Pemberton @ Jun 3 2010, 02:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
WOW. Again, not a close play.; and NOBODY OUT. Would have had bases loaded, NOBODY OUT. This guy doesn't have a fucking clue.

Not only that, but Bogar sent a guy who had hurt his ankle literally two minutes before Hermida's hit.

"Oblivious" doesn't even begin to describe it. He seems to be blind or mentally challenged out there.

#12 yecul


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:50 PM

He's bad for so many reasons that it's hard to really articulate. Situation, player, opponent, etc. Where do you start?

#13 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:54 PM

Is it even likely that Bogar is fired or moved elsewhere? I can't remember the last time a team got rid of its third-base coach during the season.

EDIT: The only recent thing I can find is that Kansas City canned their third-base coach last month, but only as part and parcel of firing Trey Hillman (the 3B coach was Hillman's bench coach the year before and had been with Hillman from the start).

Edited by TheYellowDart5, 03 June 2010 - 01:56 PM.


#14 SaveBooFerriss


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:57 PM

QUOTE (TheYellowDart5 @ Jun 3 2010, 06:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Is it even likely that Bogar is fired or moved elsewhere? I can't remember the last time a team got rid of its third-base coach during the season.


But why is that? If the decision is made that he isn't good enough, how can you justify not making a move? If the Sox actually make the playoffs, do they want Bogar sending runners to their doom? Why do a keep asking questions?

#15 JakeRae

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Posted 03 June 2010 - 01:57 PM

At want point does a smart organization like the Red Sox finally realize that the traditional coaching progression is absurd?

I think this question is, in many ways, more meaningful and interesting than the one about Bogar's specific fate. It isn't a stretch to think that the difference between an excellent 3rd base coach and a bad one is upwards of a win over the course of the season. Considering that a win on the FA market costs close to $5 million, it seems like an organization concerned with optimizing resources would put some time and energy into training potential 3rd base coaches. I see this as a great opportunity to capitalize on a market inefficiency in baseball. If they gave Demarlo Hale a significant raise and moved him back to third, would that make it clear that he is still there most highly regarded coach? The extra $50,000 or so it might cost to get him to make that switch would easily be made up for in eliminating just one of Bogar's mistakes. For the future, 3rd base coaching clearly needs to be scouted at the minor league level before promotions to the major league squad are made. Giving away runs through bad coaching is not just unacceptable, it is wasting runs to appease tradition, something I would think this Sox organization would be unwilling to do.

#16 The Gray Eagle


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 02:00 PM

Seriously, when you send a little league kid out to coach third, you remind him to pay attention to the number of outs. Because it's stupid to get runners thrown out at home with no one out, obviously.

With two out, it's very different. You send a guy on a 50-50 play with two outs, but NEVER on a 50-50 with no outs.

Everyone at every level of baseball knows this, from little league up.



#17 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 02:19 PM

Wasn't there talk, at one point, about how the Sox were going to have specialists as coaches....kind of the NFL coordinator mindset, and that they were going to get an edge over other organizations that way? I seem to recall something about 5 years ago; but evidently they abandoned it.

#18 JohntheBaptist


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 02:20 PM

This may be a dumb suggestion for reasons I'm not aware of, but if it continues like this- why not swap Bogar and Ron Johnson? He really couldn't be any worse, and this way you don't have to fire Bogar mid-season (which, as someone mentioned above, isn't really done that often for coaches).

I can't believe he did it twice in one game.

#19 MiracleOfO2704


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 02:28 PM

I'm sitting in Section 27. I couldn't see the whole play thanks to a support beam, but I'm not sure Martinez rounded third when the cut-off had the ball. The McDonald play was just ridiculous. A gimpy player, no outs, and the RF began his throw 10 feet behind the 2nd base position. Simply inexcusable.

#20 jsinger121


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 02:39 PM

QUOTE (JohntheBaptist @ Jun 3 2010, 03:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
This may be a dumb suggestion for reasons I'm not aware of, but if it continues like this- why not swap Bogar and Ron Johnson? He really couldn't be any worse, and this way you don't have to fire Bogar mid-season (which, as someone mentioned above, isn't really done that often for coaches).

I can't believe he did it twice in one game.


It's not dumb at all. Ron Johnson coached third all the time as the manager in Pawtucket. He would slide into that position pretty comfortably in my opinion. If they don't can Bogar this should be the move that happens.

#21 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 03:14 PM

Just an off the cuff guess, but a well-coached team should probably have no more than 1 "first out at home plate" play in an entire month. Bogar just caused two in the same game. It's time for the Red Sox to acknowledge the painfully obvious and fire his ass. He's got no fucking business coaching third base at any level, never mind for a team that styles itself a championship contender.

The most incompetent coaching job I've seen since Wendell Kim. Even Sveum was light-years better than this. It's amateurish and embarrassing.

#22 wutang112878

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Posted 03 June 2010 - 03:57 PM

QUOTE (jsinger121 @ Jun 3 2010, 03:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It's not dumb at all. Ron Johnson coached third all the time as the manager in Pawtucket. He would slide into that position pretty comfortably in my opinion. If they don't can Bogar this should be the move that happens.


IIRC didnt Dale Sveum last the entire 04 season with Tito too? I think Tito is loyal to his guys. However, it certainly feels like Bogar is much worse than Sveum at this point. Firing him is probably out of the question during the season, but as loyal as Tito is moving him might have to happen. Eventually he even moved Ortiz out of 3rd, this is no different

#23 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 04:01 PM

Why would firing him during the season (more likely, today) be out of the question? He cost them the game today, he's clearly incompetant, and the race to the playoffs is going to be life and death. The Sox have no problem in DFAing players when they suck; they should do the same with their cosches. There's no good reason for Bogar to keep his job.

#24 FelixMantilla


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 04:12 PM

How about moving Ron Johnson over to coach third base and returning Bogar to first base? Johnson has coached a lot of third base during his time in the minors. And he can't possibly be worse than Bogar.

#25 PedroSpecialK


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 04:12 PM

QUOTE (Smiling Joe Hesketh @ Jun 3 2010, 05:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Why would firing him during the season (more likely, today) be out of the question? He cost them the game today, he's clearly incompetant, and the race to the playoffs is going to be life and death. The Sox have no problem in DFAing players when they suck; they should do the same with their cosches. There's no good reason for Bogar to keep his job.

Especially when his blunder could have cost the Sox a win that was worth his salary many times over. I won't pretend to know his importance in terms of game preparation or in the clubhouse, but the tangible results point to a firing - the intangibles can usually be replaced, anyhow.

#26 Otis Foster


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 04:38 PM

QUOTE (Smiling Joe Hesketh @ Jun 3 2010, 05:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Why would firing him during the season (more likely, today) be out of the question? He cost them the game today, he's clearly incompetant, and the race to the playoffs is going to be life and death. The Sox have no problem in DFAing players when they suck; they should do the same with their cosches. There's no good reason for Bogar to keep his job.


It certainly feels different, maybe because expectations for that sort of thing are different for players (esp. those on the edge) and coaches. If coaches seldom get fired in mid-season, it's a real black mark when it happens to you. For the Atchisons and McDonalds of this world, it's just what it is, you're scrambling to hold on and if you're cut, so are lots of others.

This is not a defense of Bogar, whose record is miserable, maybe more of an argument to get Johnson or Hale over there, get Bogar out of harms way and cut your losses at the end of the season

#27 twoBshorty


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 05:55 PM

They aren't moving Johnson to third because he has an Achilles injury and can't move around well. Francona addressed this very recently:

QUOTE
He’s been dealing with tendinitis in left Achilles heel and the pain became so bad that he was having trouble putting any pressure on it, so he finally had a team doctor look at it. Johnson, 54, was given a mobile cast to wear until it heals. After spending 18 seasons as a minor-league manager, this is his first big-league job, so he’s been reluctant to let the injury interfere with his duties.

Last weekend Red Sox third-base coach Tim Bogar returned home to Illinois for his son’s high school graduation and there was some thought to move Johnson across the diamond. But because of his mobility issues, and the fact Sox bench coach DeMarlo Hale served in that role for four seasons, manager Terry Francona decided to keep Johnson at first.

“It’s been killing him since the end of spring training,” said Francona. “He’s been very self-conscious about it and it was one of the reasons we couldn’t have him coach third the other night, because he hasn’t been moving very well.”


http://espn.go.com/b...n-gets-the-boot

#28 bd11

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Posted 03 June 2010 - 07:45 PM

This is hardly the first poor decision this idiot has made this year and the last time he fucked up he said "if the guy was safe no one would be blaming me." This demonstrates that the asswipe doesn't understand that a guy should not be sent home in these situations unless he can score without a throw. Lachemann was a god compared to this moron. The next fuckup could get a player injured. Given the sample size, the next Bogar screwup is on Theo and Tito and not Bogar, because they have no excuse not to can his ass. I'm pissed. It cost them the game for crying out loud.

#29 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 07:52 PM

QUOTE (bd11 @ Jun 3 2010, 08:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
This is hardly the first poor decision this idiot has made this year and the last time he fucked up he said "if the guy was safe no one would be blaming me." This demonstrates that the asswipe doesn't understand that a guy should not be sent home in these situations unless he can score without a throw. Lachemann was a god compared to this moron. The next fuckup could get a player injured. Given the sample size, the next Bogar screwup is on Theo and Tito and not Bogar, because they have no excuse not to can his ass. I'm pissed. It cost them the game for crying out loud.

Depending on who you ask or how you look at it, Bogar already has gotten a player injured when he sent Pedroia against the Rays. And Pedroia's been in a nasty slump ever since he hurt his knee in that game.

If Bogar can really look at the two instances today when he sent a runner and say that he would do it again, then he's simply not cut out for the job.

#30 The Gray Eagle


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 08:05 PM

Amalie Benjamin's twit from after the game: "AmalieBenjamin: Bogar: "Nobody out, 2 bad decisions and I got 2 runners thrown out. It's all about results, and obviously both times I was wrong."

It's all about results? This guy still doesn't get it.

It's NOT all about results, it's about situations. If a guy gets thrown out by 10 feet with two outs, that's one thing. But with NO OUTS, you don't send them unless they're 95% likely to score even on a good throw.

And if the runners today had been safe because of a dropped tag or a horrible throw, they were STILL bad sends. It's NOT about results, it's about knowing the freaking situation, and every third base coach needs to realize the situation before the pitch is even thrown. Hours later and it seems like Bogar still doesn't get it.

Every third base coach will have runners thrown out sometime. But a halfway competent one will almost never have one thrown out at home by 5+ feet with zero outs. This clown does it all the time, and shows no inkling of understanding WHY they were bad sends.

I usually try not to care what a player or coach says to the media, but to have this clown say it's all about results makes me want to see a bus run him over, while Wendell Kim is signaling the bus driver to GO!


#31 E5 Yaz


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 09:32 PM

QUOTE
"Obviously nobody out, I made two bad decisions and got two runners thrown out at the plate," said Bogar, who last season was Boston's first-base coach until moving across the diamond to replace DeMarlo Hale, who was superb as third-base coach but deservedly was promoted to bench coach when Brad Mills left to become manager of the Astros.

"Obviously it's all about results, and obviously both times I was wrong, so I'll take full responsibility for it.''

The gimpiness of the runners, Bogar said, "had nothing to do" with what transpired.

"Just two decisions I made that didn't go our way,'' he said. "Obviously I should have learned from the first one.''


http://sports.espn.g...m...&id=5249466

#32 Bellhorn


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 10:38 PM

"I should have learned from the first one" may be the most damning quote of all.

#33 Ted Cox 4 president

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Posted 03 June 2010 - 10:49 PM

"So I'll take full responsibility for it" suggests he thinks he has a choice in the matter, which isn't exactly the case. Very frustrating, to say the least.

#34 Rasputin


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 11:35 PM

QUOTE (Bellhorn @ Jun 3 2010, 11:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
"I should have learned from the first one" may be the most damning quote of all.


You mean considering it was two months ago...

#35 Bellhorn


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Posted 03 June 2010 - 11:49 PM

QUOTE (Rasputin @ Jun 4 2010, 12:35 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
You mean considering it was two months ago...

More like considering that "don't send a runner with 0 out unless you'd bet your house that he'll make it" is a pretty fundamental principle of third-base coaching, not something that he should be learning through trial and error on the job.

#36 smastroyin


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Posted 04 June 2010 - 07:16 AM

The worst part about this story is the "promotion to bench coach" bullshit for DeMarlo Hale.

If I could eliminate bureaucracy from my work life, my productivity increase would only be bettered by my happiness . If I could eliminate bureaucracy from the government, we would enter into utopia. But now bureaucracy is affecting the performance of the Red Sox?

Really?

I mean, eff me.

#37 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 04 June 2010 - 07:54 AM

Smas, I must disagree with you there. With the departure of Mills, the Sox really did need someone to be the bench coach and next in line to run the club should something happen with Tito's health again. Hale has been a managerial candidate in the past (he interviewed for the Sox after Gump got dumped) and is pretty highly regarded in the coaching community, so I must say I was pleased that he received the promotion in order to get experience from the dugout and give his thoughts and opinions to Tito while learning from him.

The problem isn't that Hale is the bench coach. The problem is that they hired a fuckwit to replace him at 3B. They merely need to make the necessary change and get someone competent in there and the bureaucracy issue solves itself. Bogar's there only by happenstance anyway as he was the guy the team hired after they inexplicably fired Luis Alicea following the '07 season. Alicea was a guy who was thought to be a manager in waiting and the organization had tracked him to the major league club, but they got rid of him and it was never said why. That episode left a very sour taste in my mouth.



#38 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 04 June 2010 - 08:15 AM

QUOTE (Bellhorn @ Jun 4 2010, 12:49 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
More like considering that "don't send a runner with 0 out unless you'd bet your house that he'll make it" is a pretty fundamental principle of third-base coaching, not something that he should be learning through trial and error on the job.

John McGraw's corpse must be spinning so fast he could power the Fenway light towers.

#39 Doctor G

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Posted 04 June 2010 - 08:33 AM

An important part of the job is to minimize potential collisions at the plate. Bogar is unapologetic about being aggressive. "Thats who I am." If you're sending guys into out by ten feet situations you are going to eventially get an equally aggressive player hurt and out of the lineup. Lets hope Ron Johnson has to be dropped from first cause of his achilles and Bogar can be sent back across the diamond. Maybe Torey Lovullo can do a better job at third.

#40 smastroyin


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Posted 04 June 2010 - 08:37 AM

QUOTE (Smiling Joe Hesketh @ Jun 4 2010, 08:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Smas, I must disagree with you there. With the departure of Mills, the Sox really did need someone to be the bench coach and next in line to run the club should something happen with Tito's health again. Hale has been a managerial candidate in the past (he interviewed for the Sox after Gump got dumped) and is pretty highly regarded in the coaching community, so I must say I was pleased that he received the promotion in order to get experience from the dugout and give his thoughts and opinions to Tito while learning from him.

The problem isn't that Hale is the bench coach. The problem is that they hired a fuckwit to replace him at 3B. They merely need to make the necessary change and get someone competent in there and the bureaucracy issue solves itself. Bogar's there only by happenstance anyway as he was the guy the team hired after they inexplicably fired Luis Alicea following the '07 season. Alicea was a guy who was thought to be a manager in waiting and the organization had tracked him to the major league club, but they got rid of him and it was never said why. That episode left a very sour taste in my mouth.


What really prevents a bench coach from standing in the third base coaches box, though?



#41 joe dokes

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Posted 04 June 2010 - 08:57 AM

QUOTE (smastroyin @ Jun 4 2010, 09:37 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
What really prevents a bench coach from standing in the third base coaches box, though?


Assuming the bench coach is as valuable as managers seem to believe, having one not on the bench for half the game would seem to be an issue.
I think the response about Johnson's achilles -- rather than him saying, "why would we change things" -- suggests that there were some disucssions with Bogar.

Edited by joe dokes, 04 June 2010 - 08:58 AM.


#42 TheoShmeo


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Posted 04 June 2010 - 09:51 AM

Hale might be a fine bench coach and the best candidate they had for that job. But coaching third is the most specialized, skills based coaching position in baseball, I believe. You either have that special skill of being able to judge the overall situation and make a snap decision under pressure or you don't. The ability to make tactical decisions and provide input to the manager and the players is important but I would guess that many good baseball men could do that well.

When they promoted Hale, they made a reasonably sure bet that he'd be a good bench coach and took a flier on Tim Bogar at third. Bogar likely had some third base coaching experience in the minors but there was probably little data on how he'd fared. They were essentially saying that he's a great baseball coach so he can do this job, too...we hope.

The flier has gone down in flames and the Sox need to make a change. Whether that's moving Hale back to third and suffering his absence for half the game from the bench, moving Johnson over when he's able, promoting someone from the minors or hiring someone from outside the system, Bogar cannot remain in this job. He will cost the team outs and games and eventually get one of the players seriously injured. They dodged a bullet with Pedrioa (though he really hasn't hit well since that ridiculous send). Every other time Bogar has sent someone foolishly we've all held our breath and hoped that the player would walk away unscathed. So far, so good, but the time for on the on job training has passed, as Bogar already has made more obvious blunders than Hale made in four years on the job.

In my view, if the Sox fail to remove Bogar from his current position, it will be by a terrible, stubborn and foolish decision, and will be the single worst decision that Theo and the Trio have made during their tenure. Even the worst free agent signings or trades -- such as Lugo and Renteria -- are based on a reasonable set of expectations and are hard to rectify given financial considerations and the lack of better readily available options. Bogar doesn't cost much, he can be re-assigned to another position in the organization and there are no shortage of candidates who could do the job better. This can be fixed. The whole "steady as you go, it's a long season" mantra doesn't apply with this guy; the two month plus sample size is big enough.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 04 June 2010 - 09:53 AM.


#43 barbed wire Bob

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Posted 04 June 2010 - 10:05 AM

QUOTE (Smiling Joe Hesketh @ Jun 4 2010, 05:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Bogar's there only by happenstance anyway as he was the guy the team hired after they inexplicably fired Luis Alicea following the '07 season. Alicea was a guy who was thought to be a manager in waiting and the organization had tracked him to the major league club, but they got rid of him and it was never said why. That episode left a very sour taste in my mouth.


Minor correction but Alicia was let go after the 2008 season. He then became the first base coach for the Mets in 2009 and was let go at the end of the season. Alicia was the only coach the Mets fired outright when they made changes to the coaching staff and no specific reason was stated. Maybe he is difficult to work with.

Edit: forgot a word.

Edited by barbed wire Bob, 04 June 2010 - 10:06 AM.


#44 geoduck no quahog

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Posted 04 June 2010 - 10:08 AM

Seems to me there are new-ish unwritten rules that have imposed themselves on the game.

It used to be that the 3rd base coach was the #2 guy, but then all of a sudden the "bench coach" appeared. I don't remember growing up with a bench coach in the mix. Now it seems there's this inviable structure that has the manager's best boy friend sitting next to him all game and the 3rd base coach sitting on top of the field hierarchy. It also seems that the bench coach is now coronated as the next-in-line for a managing position either with or without his team.

So now we have Hale back-to-3rd looked at as a demotion.

All sounds stupid to me. Just put the best guy in the best position to succeed.

I guess the other part has to do with fraternity and loyalty. A manager sets up his stable and now social forces come into force with no one wanting to throw someone under the bus and no one wanting to take intrusive direction from above.

It's also impossible for us to know what benefits coaches bring outside of game-time...how much work and productivity they provide. I suspect that's where Bogar's real value comes into play.

These guys all mean a lot to the team. It's too bad a hierarchy has been developed that proves so inflexible that they can't be used to their best abilities without upsetting some un-natural order.

#45 Eric Van


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Posted 04 June 2010 - 10:10 AM

When McDonald tweaked his ankle at 1B, I swear I said "great, now Bogar can send him home with no outs." I was fucking kidding.

The change in Run Expectancy on the first play was 1.06 runs, and the break-even point was surprisingly low at 72% (it's driven down by Youkilis getting to 3B with 1 out even if you fail). But that assumes an average run environment. (In a low run environment -- say, facing a Hallladay or Sabathia with weak hitters coming up -- that's actually an exception to the rule, a time you actually do gamble making the first out at home.)

However, given that Mazzaro has been a below average pitcher and is facing one of the best lineups in MLB, and had just come into the game and walked the first hitter and given up a smoked double, the run environment is much higher and that means the change in RE is higher and hence the break-even point is higher, too.

Given Martinez's gimpiness, I thought it was just about the worst call I'd ever seen a 3B coach make.

The change in RE on the second play was 1.40 runs and the break-even point was 88%. In a neutral run environment. What was the actual run environment? Mazzaro had faced 7 hitters and only retired two of them, giving up a 2B, three 1B, and a BB. How often do you see a guy load the bases with no out and get out of it without the runner on 3B (that is, anyone) scoring? It's rare enough that Bill James has coined a name for it (a "Houdini") and tracks it on his web site. How many pitchers who are pitching that poorly have ever turned around and pulled one off? There was essentially no chance whatsoever of McDonald not scoring had he been held at 3B.

(Of course, it looks even worse when you take Mazzaro's entire outing into consideration. He "held" opponent hitters to a .563 BA, a .556 OBP (when was the last time you saw a BB and a SF that combined to reduce OBP?), and a 1.063 SA. I've tried to calculate the actual run environemnt given Mazzaro's outing and it's something like 21 runs per game. Linear Weights says he should have given up 7 or 8 runs rather than 3, if he'd been asked to get 10 outs by himself.)

So this is a situation where you basically cannot send the runner if there is going to be any kind of play at the plate. It would be a terrible call sending Jacoby Ellsbury. Sending a guy who has just twisted his ankle moments before -- it actually trumps the first call in badness.

And that, my friends, is without factoring in the fact that after the first boneheaded call, a guy should be having second thoughts about making a similar mistake.

There is essentially no question that Tim Bogar singlehandedly cost them this game. That's on top of, what, three games where he made similar blunders and they lost in extra innings? It's kind of astonishing, but I think it's fair to point at Tim Bogar as the single leading cause of this team's disappointing performance (admittedly, in part because every time he screws up, the missing run or runs proves to be enough to win the game). He has cost them more than Beckett's injury, than the OF injuries, you name it. They wouldn't tolerate a pitcher with a 15.00 ERA (I'm just pulling numbers out of my butt because I haven't the heart to calculate them) or a hitter with a .380 OPS, and I think you'd have to be that bad to have the actual negative impact on wins that Bogar has had. (I mean, Josh Beckett, by WPA, has cost them 0.8 wins compared to an average pitcher; Bogar has probably been close to 3 wins worse than the average 3B coach, again, admittedly factoring in the crap luck of every mistake turning out to be crucial).

To say that he has shown less than zero aptitude for the job would be an understatement. Calling him incompetent would be an insult to incompetent people. Something needs to be done.

#46 OilCanShotTupac


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Posted 04 June 2010 - 10:21 AM

The situation can be addressed without putting Hale back at third. Just fire Bogar and get a 3B coach who has shown an aptitude for the job. This management seems to excel at evaluating talent for every other need - this shouldn't be rocket science.

Bogar has got to go.

#47 bosockboy

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Posted 04 June 2010 - 10:32 AM

QUOTE (OilCanShotTupac @ Jun 4 2010, 10:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The situation can be addressed without putting Hale back at third. Just fire Bogar and get a 3B coach who has shown an aptitude for the job. This management seems to excel at evaluating talent for every other need - this shouldn't be rocket science.

Bogar has got to go.


Easier said than done, though. Most any competent baseball man will be currently employed with another team. One thought....is Jimy employed right now? He's an excellent 3B coach.

#48 DanoooME

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Posted 04 June 2010 - 11:09 AM

QUOTE (bosockboy @ Jun 4 2010, 11:32 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Easier said than done, though. Most any competent baseball man will be currently employed with another team. One thought....is Jimy employed right now? He's an excellent 3B coach.


Dave Trembley is available, the O's canned him today

He managed in the minors for 20 years, so he's got some experience in the 3B coaches box.


#49 The Gray Eagle


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Posted 04 June 2010 - 11:33 AM

If we didn't have a third base coach at all this year, just an empty coaching box, we might well be a couple games better off in the standings.

That's the infuriating part, Bogar is actively hurting the team with his incompetence. He's done a much worse job out there than a tree stump, a box of rocks, Helen Keller's casket or an inanimate carbon rod would have done in his place.

#50 Lose Remerswaal


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Posted 04 June 2010 - 11:36 AM

QUOTE (DanoooME @ Jun 4 2010, 12:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Dave Trembley is available, the O's canned him today

He managed in the minors for 20 years, so he's got some experience in the 3B coaches box.

He seems to get along with Tito






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