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Red Sox Starters and Pitch Usage


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#1 ScubaSteveAvery


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Posted 18 May 2010 - 03:03 PM

There's been an interesting back and forth in the Vent thread between Sprowl & Smas about the pitch usage of Sox starters this year. And I wanted to see how the usage fluctuated from year to year and if they reflected major events (Farrell becoming pitching coach, or V-Mart taking over regular catching duties). For those who don't remember, Farrell came after the 2006 season, and V-Mart last year (I hope you remember that...).

All the percentages are from Fangraphs. A couple things about how I put all this in tables. I started with 2006 because it was the year before Farrell was hired as the pitching coach, so it gives us at least some barometer of how much pitchers were throwing of each pitch. I also chose Red Sox starters that gave the Sox at least 100 IP as a starter in at least one year. I used shades of red to differentiate between years where a pitcher gave less than 100 innings as a visual way of warning about SSS. The darker the red, the lower amount of innings thrown. I didn't include Wakefield for obvious reasons, and I included Tavarez & Penny's numbers for pre and post Red Sox tenure to see if their usages changed when they were not playing for the Sox. Also, Lackey is in there for similar reasons. For players who only played partial seasons before moving to a different club, I used their splits with the Sox only that year. Finally, Fangraphs does not differentiate between 2 and 4 seam fastball.

Also, there are many things these numbers don't tell us. So its important to add some context before drawing any hard conclusions. I'm not sure how helpful this data is, but I thought it would be interesting to just see if people notice any general trends. Anyways, I'll start with the curve:

Red Sox Starters' Curveballs 2006-2010
Pitcher 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Schilling 5.30% 9.50% N/A N/A N/A
Beckett 21.20% 25.10% 23.70% 25.50% 18.70%
Lester 11.90% 15.40% 17.20% 19.30% 13.90%
Matsuzaka N/A 5.10% 4.10% 0.70% 1.70%
Penny 19.40% 12.60% 16.00% 17.50% 16.90%
Tavarez DID NOT THROW CURVE W/ SOX
Buchholz N/A 15.40% 21.40% 11.40% 7.80%
Lackey 21.70% 20.10% 24.50% 24.70% 23.50%


- Curve usage is down from last year across the board with exception of Lackey.
- One other observation: After Farrell was hired, curve usage increased for Schilling, Becket, and Lester.

Red Sox Starters' Cutter Usage: 2006-2010
Pitcher 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Schilling 7.00% 3.10% N/A N/A N/A
Beckett 0.20% 0.20% 2.10% 5.10% 11.10%
Lester 2.00% 22.00% 22.00% 19.60% 21.40%
Matsuzaka N/A 14.60% 15.00% 16.30% 10.30%
Penny DOES NOT THROW A CUTTER
Tavarez DOES NOT THROW A CUTTER
Buchholz DOES NOT THROW A CUTTER
Lackey STOPPED THROWING CUTTER IN 2008


- As discussed in the other thread, Beckett's cutter usage is up and has been rising the last few seasons.

Red Sox Starters' Slider Usage: 2006-2010
Pitcher 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Schilling 1.40% 7.40% N/A N/A N/A
Beckett DOES NOT THROW A SLIDER
Lester 15.90% 1.90% 0.20% N/A N/A
Matsuzaka N/A 17.20% 23.10% 20.10% 18.60%
Penny 0.40% N/A N/A 3.30% 2.60%
Tavarez 14.70% 14.70% 18.90% 50.60% N/A
Buchholz N/A 6.50% 7.60% 10.50% 15.60%
Lackey 7.90% 13.70% 13.80% 13.30% 9.00%


- Buchholz slider usage has increased every season, and is up again this year.
- Did Penny learn to throw a slider when he came? Because he only threw a few in 2006, and then threw 3.3% here and kept throwing it when he left.

Red Sox Starters' Fastball Usage: 2006-2010
Pitcher 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Schilling 61.90% 53.80% N/A N/A N/A
Beckett 69.00% 63.10% 66.90% 60.80% 58.20%
Lester 64.70% 54.20% 57.00% 54.50% 52.50%
Matsuzaka N/A 52.70% 52.20% 53.80% 60.30%
Penny 73.90% 71.70% 69.50% 72.40% 46.90%
Tavarez 71.10% 64.50% 55.40% 34.90% N/A
Buchholz N/A 52.90% 47.40% 54.80% 57.40%
Lackey 57.70% 62.10% 59.80% 58.60% 62.40%


And finally, change-up usage:

Red Sox Starters' Change-up 2006-2010
Pitcher 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Schilling 0.40% 5.90% N/A N/A N/A
Beckett 9.50% 11.50% 7.40% 8.60% 12.10%
Lester 5.50% 6.50% 3.70% 6.60% 12.20%
Matsuzaka N/A 4.70% 3.80% 5.60% 10.00%
Penny 5.30% 15.60% 4.40% N/A 5.20%
Tavarez 6.70% 16.40% 11.30% 12.40% N/A
Buchholz N/A 25.20% 23.60% 23.30% 19.20%
Lackey 4.70% 4.00% 1.40% 3.30% 5.10%


- Change-up usage increased for Schilling, Beckett, and Lester after Farrell arrived.
- Change-up usage is up across the board this year, except for Buchholz, who seems to have replaced change and curve usage with more sliders.

Anyways, I figured I'd post this and see if anybody else notices something, or can add some useful context. Just taking a quick glance at this stuff, it seems that with Victor taking over as full time catcher, he is calling less curves and more change-ups. I wonder if that is something unique to his calling style, or if something else is going on.


#2 Alternate34

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Posted 18 May 2010 - 03:15 PM

A quick note, the changeup usage seems kind of screwed up to me. There is one starter on the staff who I am confident has a great changeup and that is Buchholz. The other guys have changeups that range from effective to ehn. I can understand a lower number of changeups from Clay because he threw it alot, but it doesn't seem like the other pitchers should be throwing more.

#3 redinchicago

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Posted 18 May 2010 - 03:35 PM

QUOTE (Alternate34 @ May 18 2010, 01:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
A quick note, the changeup usage seems kind of screwed up to me. There is one starter on the staff who I am confident has a great changeup and that is Buchholz. The other guys have changeups that range from effective to ehn. I can understand a lower number of changeups from Clay because he threw it alot, but it doesn't seem like the other pitchers should be throwing more.


Disagree. Lester's change is his 2nd best pitch this year according to data and to my eyes. And Buchholz' 'slider' could be classified as a cutter in my book. Pitch FX may say different, but that's a cutter.

And Daisuke Matsuzaka threw 104 pitches last night: 89 of those were either 4 seam (41), 2 seam (24), or cut (24) FBs, FWIW.

#4 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 18 May 2010 - 04:38 PM

Interesting point about Buchholz's slider/cutter/slutter. I just noticed today, looking at the PitchFX page from Fangraphs that Sprowl linked to, that what PitchFX calls Buchholz' slider made an abrupt change late last year, picking up 3-5 mph of velocity and losing a bit of horizontal and vertical break--in short, becoming more cutter-like.

It's also an interesting question whether Lackey does or doesn't throw a cutter. If you look at his FG PitchFX page, you can see the cutter disappearing in '08, reappearing last year, and then this year suddenly getting used a whole lot more often. The old, '07 cutters are consistently 2-3 mph slower than the fastballs, and midway in horizontal movement between the FB and breaking pitches. But when the cutter reappears after '08, there is no velocity distinction between cutter and FB, and the cutter is noticeably closer to the FB in horizontal movement. So I'm inclined to suspect PitchFX is making a spurious distinction among the fastballs and the new cutter is a mirage.

#5 Sprowl


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Posted 18 May 2010 - 04:59 PM

QUOTE (Savin Hillbilly @ May 18 2010, 02:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It's also an interesting question whether Lackey does or doesn't throw a cutter. If you look at his FG PitchFX page, you can see the cutter disappearing in '08, reappearing last year, and then this year suddenly getting used a whole lot more often. The old, '07 cutters are consistently 2-3 mph slower than the fastballs, and midway in horizontal movement between the FB and breaking pitches. But when the cutter reappears after '08, there is no velocity distinction between cutter and FB, and the cutter is noticeably closer to the FB in horizontal movement. So I'm inclined to suspect PitchFX is making a spurious distinction among the fastballs and the new cutter is a mirage.

I agree -- for whatever reason, the PitchFX and Fangraphs/BIS classifications have both had big problems classifying Lackey's fastballs, and have changed approaches so completely that the long-term pitch type proportions are somewhat unreliable. Lackey is a hard pitcher to classify because his curve and slider overlap, and his fastballs, sinkers and (possibly a few) cutters also vary along a continuum of movement and velocity.

In contrast, Pitchfx now classifies Buchholz almost perfectly.

#6 ScubaSteveAvery


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Posted 18 May 2010 - 05:24 PM

Huh, I never noticed the large discrepancy between the regular Fangraphs data and the pitchfx data on Fangraphs site. For the record, I grabbed all that data off the regular Fangraphs page for Lackey: Link.




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