86 replies to this topic

[Rooster Crows]

I know its Lupica, but I can't help but agree with his observation:

- You know what Josh Beckett was doing when he started hitting people on Friday night? Pouting.

The Red Sox must be pretty excited, after what they've seen so far this season, to have Beckett locked up for the next four years.
In that moment it was hard to remember him as the best big-game pitcher in the game, one the Yankees used to envy.
The kid, Phil Hughes, looked like that kind of pitcher at Fenway. Not Josh Beckett.

There were some obvious holes going into the season, particularly on offense. These have become more glaring as the pitching isn't even allowing the offense to start on an even playing field - more often having to come from behind. That said, the errors for an "improved" defense are simply unacceptable, even with a new group getting used to each other, and the DH needs to hit. Its as if they are all playing down to their worst, not reaching down and pulling out their best, performances - even during these Yanks games which were so often exciting because both sides amped up their game.

I hate to bring up the dreaded "intangibles", but it seems to me as if they're just not in sync, or gelling, or whatever word you want to use. Whether they are pushing too hard, or not enough, I don't know. Getting back to Josh - he's supposed to be the ace, a team leader, and this stuff doesn't do much to set a good example. Unless and until they are mathematically out of it, I'm not counting them out, but they need something more than some different pieces which look good on paper, imo - they need to start playing like a team, and small ball their way back into the race.

[Cuzittt]

What are you trying to accomplish with this post? That anything is possible? I think that's been said a number of times. That this is your viewpoint -- that they will win 95+ on their way to the playoffs? If so, can you explain how and why you think that will take place?

You need it laid out? OK.

We have had 30 games of suck. We have been awful against our two biggest competitors. And, it is all but 30 games in.

I DO NOT KNOW if the Red Sox are going to make the playoffs. I DO NOT KNOW if the Red Sox are going to turn this around and finish over .500. And, I completely understand the negative attitudes in this thread.

However, the past tells us that many teams have started off super poorly... and still managed to salvage the season. Will the Red Sox be that team this year... only time will tell. However, while we can grouse about what has happened... is it so inconceivable to have some hope that the season may turn around? Because, history tells us that this actually happens... quite a lot.

This team CAN go on a massive run this year. This team has potentially great starting pitching... and if they start pitching to their potential, they could put up a streak like that Oakland team in '01. Or, you know, they can flame out.

So, yeah, anything is possible. It's not bad to actually point that out with actual data points.

[yecul]

Oh, I thought I was going to elicit a commentary on some who, what, when, why, and how things would turn around. It was just an anything is possible post? Ok. Yes. Anything is possible.

I think it's a major disservice to cast the 'everyone is just being negative' broad strokes. No one is being negative. They are being very reasonable in regards to this team, it's performance to date, and their chances going forward.

[Spacemans Bong]

It would be the height of foolishness for me to come in here and declare that the Red Sox are going to go to the playoffs this season. Obviously, they have built themselves a nice little hole to climb out of. They are in a division with two really good teams. There is a good likelihood that the Red Sox will not make the playoffs this year.

But, we do ourselves a disservice to not look at history. On May 9th last season, The Yankees lost to the Orioles 12-7. It was their fifth loss in 6 games. They were 14-16. As we know, they won over 100 games and the World Series.

In 2001, the Oakland As were 13-20 on May 9th. On June 13th, they briefly made it over the .500 mark at 32-31... but quickly fell under .500 again. They finally broke .500 again on July 8th (44-43). They went on to win 102 games in the regular season.

The 1951 Giants were 13 Games Back of the Dodgers on August 11th. Do I have to remind you Who won the pennant?

Heck... we can look at our OWN history. The 1988 Red Sox were 10 Games Back on June 13th (28-30). They didn't even break .500 for another week (June 20th). They only made it to first place by themselves on September 5th. They, as we all know, won the division.

This is not to say that this current Red Sox squad will do what the above teams did. But it is silly to count them out at this point. They have 130 games to go... there is a lot of time yet left.

[And, no, the above list of 4 is simply the 4 that I quickly came up with. There are many, many more examples of teams starting slowly and cranking it up and making the playoffs.]

The 1988 Red Sox won 88 games. If you told me 88 games would win the division this year I'd be in the Church of Playoff Believers for sure.

The 2001 A's won 20 games in a row. The 1951 Giants won 16 in a row and went 37-7 to end the season. These are two of the most famous hot streaks in the history of baseball; it doesn't inspire confidence that the Red Sox need history to be a playoff team.

So last year's Yankees are probably the likeliest scenario and that was a team that was just really good; their longest streak was 9 but they had multiple streaks of 5, 6, 7 games that pulled them into an unassailable division lead. But BP's Pecota odds have the Red Sox at about an 11% chance to make the playoffs, to the reality is it's really unlikely.

[dynomite]

The 2001 A's won 20 games in a row. The 1951 Giants won 16 in a row and went 37-7 to end the season. These are two of the most famous hot streaks in the history of baseball; it doesn't inspire confidence that the Red Sox need history to be a playoff team.

The one thing I'll say, though, is that the A's went on their run in part because they had the best 1-3 starters in the American League. During their 11-game win streak in early August, here were the runs scored against them:

4
1
1
1
3
2
1
0
1
6
2

While it's true that our starters' ERA today is 5.21 (right?) who here would be shocked if Beckett, Lester, Lackey, and Buchholz put together a month of dominance? That's what makes it so hard for me to write off this team, all evidence and common sense to the contrary -- pitching still wins, and if our 4 starters get "hot" at the same time (in the same way that 3 of them have been "cold" at the same time) we could win a bunch of games in a hurry.

Edited by dynomite, 09 May 2010 - 12:38 PM.

[Cuzittt]

The 2001 A's won 20 games in a row. The 1951 Giants won 16 in a row and went 37-7 to end the season. These are two of the most famous hot streaks in the history of baseball; it doesn't inspire confidence that the Red Sox need history to be a playoff team.

Sure, but the Red Sox of '10 have a lot more games to play than either the Giants or A's do. They don't need something historic... they need a sustained streak of winning. They have 130 games left... not the 80 that the A's had or the month and a half the Giants did.

And yecul, I'm not actually saying that people aren't right to be negative. What the team has shown us has been bad. If one extrapolates the performance to the rest of the season, of course the Sox aren't anywhere near the playoffs. But... that was sort of the point of me bringing up these examples. We can't see the team having a sustained string of success right now. If you were to tell an A's fan in June of '01 that they were going to win 100 games... frankly, you would have gotten the same "negativity" as we are having in this thread. And yet, they went on an absurd hot streak.

And, there are plenty of other examples. The Rockies in '07 (6.5 GB - SEPTEMBER 16). The 69 Mets (10 Back - August 13th).

Winning will cure a lot of ills. So... to answer the thread title... no, tonight is not a must win. But... a win would certainly help things.

[bankshot1]

And, there are plenty of other examples. The Rockies in '07 (6.5 GB - SEPTEMBER 16). The 69 Mets (10 Back - August 13th).

And at least one other comes to mind that strikess a little closer to home, 1978, when the MFYs were in 3rd place, 14 games behind The Gerbil & Co. in July, and we know how that turned out. So is it to late? Nope, and tonite's not a must win game. By my count the sox got at least another 6 games and a 2 months to piss away, but chasing down 2 elite teams, not just one, makes this a somewaht daunting, if not an impossible task.

Edited by bankshot1, 09 May 2010 - 01:31 PM.

[erfus]

It's not over yet. Far from 'anything is possible' some form of turnaround is actually probable. The pitching should come back, there's too much talent just in the starting 5 for it not too unless there is an injury involved. Just using ERA: The Sox 5.11 ERA will drop by about a run before it's over (4.35 in 09, 4.01 in 08, 3.87 in 07 and many of us thought this could be the best year since 07 pitching-wise). Beckett will finish a bit better than 7.46. A lot of this bad start is still carry-over from April when Lester was also struggling mightily and Wakefield was in the rotation. If the starters bounce back, the relievers will throw less (currently 3rd in the AL in IP) and the HR allowed will likely also creep down (relievers are currently 3rd worst in the AL at 35 or 1.9/9 innings--whereas starters have given up 16 in 185 IP)

They'll also get 2/3rds of their starting OF back. While we've all enjoyed McDonald's ride, his 572 OPS vs. righties won't be missed. Hermida's had some big hits, but he's making a lot of outs as well (including a paltry .290 OBP against righties). I think the situational offensive problems has been talked about too and that's probably also something that will even out over time and perhaps with health and a settling of the roles of the DHs on the club.

It may not be enough to catch 2 outstanding clubs ahead of them, but the deficit is 7 GB and still manageable.

Edited by erfus, 09 May 2010 - 01:44 PM.

[SMU_Sox]

Oh, I thought I was going to elicit a commentary on some who, what, when, why, and how things would turn around. It was just an anything is possible post? Ok. Yes. Anything is possible.

Here's why they will turn around. Keeping in mind we're basically at .500 now.

1) Lester will keep up his solid performances and his ERA will continue to drop below 3.93.
2) Beckett will improve. His ERA isn't going to be anywhere close to 7.46 by the end of the season. His WHIP won't be 1.66. His BAA won't be .311.
3) Clay might get even better. I think his last two starts are not indicative of his future starts.
4) John Lackey will continue to give solid starts and continue his improvement from the bump in the road in the beginning of the season.
5) Our 5th starter spot, Dice-K or Wake, won't end the season anywhere near a 7+ ERA.

If 2/5 starting pitching spots perform like they should then this team contends again. We're almost at .500 now and I expect to see all five spots get even better. Even if 5/5 improvement is unrealistic, and I don't think it is, 4/5 isn't with the current staff we have now.

There are other reasons too...
Once Ellsbury and Cameron get back our line-up gets better and our D is also improved. Even if the OPS difference between a hot Hall and McDonald, and a career avg. Cameron and Ellsbury is minimal, 1) Hall and McDonald's numbers might not be sustainable, 2) Cameron and Ells play better D, and 3) Ells adds 50+ SBs.
Beltre isn't going to be this bad defensively the whole season.
Situational hitting will lead to more runs as we improve to the mean.

We're hovering around .500 now with all of those problems. All, or even some, of those improvements should put us at a .6-.65 WP.

[joyofsox]

BP's Pecota odds have the Red Sox at about an 11% chance to make the playoffs, to the reality is it's really unlikely.

Cool Standings had the 15-16 MFY at 12.9% to make the 2009 playoffs. They have the Sox at 4.4% right now.

[Pumpsie]

Cool Standings had the 15-16 MFY at 12.9% to make the 2009 playoffs. They have the Sox at 4.4% right now.

Makes perfect sense. The 2010 Tampa Bay team is MUCH better than last year's edition.

[bosockboy]

One wildcard at play here that could help us get back in things....the possibility that one of TB and NYY beats up the other one head to head. They have 15 left....say one team wins 11 of 15. At bare minimum its 15 games one of them is guaranteed to lose.

All of that means nothing if we don't win some road series against both of them, though.

[Rasputin]

Feel better?

[CR67dream]

Feel better?

Yeah, a bit, but everything's relative. If you've still ot the game thread in a a couple of weeks, I'll be friggin ecstatic.

No pressure, or nuthin.....

[Eric Van]

TB 17-7
NYA 15-6, 1/2 GB
Bos 14-8, 2 GB

Those are the standings exclusive of head-to-head.

(And both teams have a 3 game edge on us vs. the O's.)

If you played all year at a 14-8 pace and split the games with the rivals, you'd win 98 games.

I don't have any doubt that the team will win 90+ games and probably 95+. Making the playoffs will come down to kicking serious butt in the remaining games vs. the rivals. There is no guarantee of that no matter how well the team is playing, so it will take some luck (in every sense from broad to narrow).

[Spacemans Bong]

Sure, but the Red Sox of '10 have a lot more games to play than either the Giants or A's do. They don't need something historic... they need a sustained streak of winning. They have 130 games left... not the 80 that the A's had or the month and a half the Giants did.

And yecul, I'm not actually saying that people aren't right to be negative. What the team has shown us has been bad. If one extrapolates the performance to the rest of the season, of course the Sox aren't anywhere near the playoffs. But... that was sort of the point of me bringing up these examples. We can't see the team having a sustained string of success right now. If you were to tell an A's fan in June of '01 that they were going to win 100 games... frankly, you would have gotten the same "negativity" as we are having in this thread. And yet, they went on an absurd hot streak.

And, there are plenty of other examples. The Rockies in '07 (6.5 GB - SEPTEMBER 16). The 69 Mets (10 Back - August 13th).

Winning will cure a lot of ills. So... to answer the thread title... no, tonight is not a must win. But... a win would certainly help things.

Well, this plays into what I said, doesn't it? The Red Sox have about a 1 in 9 shot of making the playoffs, and while we can rack off a bunch of teams who have done this we can see it's not an every year phenomenon.

I certainly wouldn't be looking at trading some of our chips for prospects, but my point is don't get your hopes up.

[JimD]

I think the success of this season is likely to come down to what the Red Sox do and not because the Rays and Yankees leave them in the dust. If the Sox can start to right the ship, it’s not unrealistic to think that the Yankees could come back down to Earth given the age of some of their key players. I’m not counting on this, but I do believe there’s a decent chance that injury starts to take its toll. PettiTTe, Rivera and Posada are already ailing and I could see two or three of them losing significant time this year. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the number of innings Sabathia has pitched in recent years starts to catch up to him at some point, especially if Girardi starts to ride him harder to make up for the lack of quality starts from the lower end of the rotation. All of this is moot, of course, if the Red Sox do not take advantage.

[seantoo]

I doubt there was ever a possibility of a playoff run if they couldn't put up a winning record against one or both teams. There's no reason to believe the Sox were going to be able to beat up on the rest of the league to such an extent that they could get away with anything less than .500 against both.

Or at least close to .500.
One thing I have learned however is, never say X, Y or Z has to happen in order for the Red Sox to achieve XX number of wins and contend, because almost without fail "X,Y & Z don't get the memo however the team still gets it done. Things allmost never happen for the exact reasons you think they will even if you are right about the final result, there is far to many variables that offset the line you drew in the infield dirt.

I felt the Sox needed to take this series with the Yanks and they failed. However I never feel like May is a must win situation although I nearly have this time around. What this starts truly means is that their margin for error down the road of this long season is greatly reduced.
Continued poor performances by key players or injuries to primary players would derail this season.

One good thing going forward, is the play of several prospects down on the farm. Jose Inglesias, if not to put to much stock into early returns, looks like he'll be ready to slide into SS as Scutaro's contract winds down. He's been solid so far at AA. Lars Anderson last year is clearly an outlier and he's back on track and very likely will be with this parent club from September on if not at some point early next season. Injuries have been a blessing in disguise in some ways. Hermida has had a chance to play and has only increased his value. Lowell has had a chance to play and has only increased his value to other clubs or at least opened the door for the Sox to go the opposite route and trade Ortiz, flexibility is always a good thing. More Sox prospects have increased their stock than dropped in value to far. The High A Salem team has been outstanding. Portland has been good. The two year bridge may only be a year and half away. This will allow the Sox to trade from a position of strength from players either currently with the parent club or the farm or a combo while still strengthening the overall franchise.
So in conclusion even if this ends up being an off year, there is no reason at all to think they won't contened next season, not that I'm throwing in the towel yet it's way to early for that.

[OttoC]

... or at least opened the door for the Sox to go the opposite route and trade Ortiz,...

Who would take Ortiz with his $12.5M contract and his .680 OPS? If he improves his performance at bat enough to make him attractive to other teams, wouldn't he also be valuable to Boston?

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I would be curious to know who you've talked to that thinks pitching is 90% of the game. If that's even close to the case, teams are allocating their resources very poorly.

I have no idea how old this article is, but the author concludes (using games in the late 1970s and early 1980s) that pitching/defense is between 54% and 58% of the game.

[Cuzittt]

Well, this plays into what I said, doesn't it? The Red Sox have about a 1 in 9 shot of making the playoffs, and while we can rack off a bunch of teams who have done this we can see it's not an every year phenomenon.

I certainly wouldn't be looking at trading some of our chips for prospects, but my point is don't get your hopes up.

All of this is a fair point. There is nothing here to disagree with...

However, every name brought up (with the exception of the Yankees) has been further out AND later in the season. So... I wanted to look at where the playoff teams for the past few years have been after 32 games.

'09 - Angels (1.5 GB, 17-15), Twins (3 GB, 15-17), Yankees (6.5 GB, 15-17), Red Sox (1 GB, 20-12), Philadelphia (2 GB, 16-16), St. Louis (2 GA, 20-12), Dodgers (5.5 GA, 22-10), Rockies (8.5 GB, 13-19)

'08 - Rays (3.5 GB, 17-15), Red Sox (1.5 GA, 19-13), Chicago (1.5 GB, 15-17), Angels (1 GA, 19-13), Phillies (.5 GA, 18-14), Cubs (2.5 GB, 18-14), Brewers (5 GB, 16-16), Dodgers (3 GB, 18-14).

'07 - Red Sox (6 GA, 22-10), Yankees (6 GB, 16-16), Cleveland (.5 GB, 20-12), Angels (1 GA, 17-15), Phillies (5.5 GB, 14-18), Cubs (7 GB, 16-16), Arizona (3 GB, 16-16), Colorado (5 GB, 14-18)

I could go further... but I think even just with 3 years, this gives us some good information.

1) We, as Red Sox fans, probably perceive that teams have to start out well because over the past 3 years, the Red Sox have done exactly that. Based on our own recent history, merely starting .500 through 32 games seems like a death knell.
2) 11 of the past 24 post-season participants were at .500 or BELOW 32 games into the season.

None of this is saying the Red Sox will be able to make up the deficit they have carved out for themselves. The teams above them may just be too strong. However, it would not take a historic run for the Red Sox to make the playoffs... the past 3 years show that half the teams that make the playoffs (including teams from the AL East) have been at .500 at this point in the season.

[yecul]

So you're telling me there's a chance??

[The Hit Dog]

All of this is a fair point. There is nothing here to disagree with...

However, every name brought up (with the exception of the Yankees) has been further out AND later in the season. So... I wanted to look at where the playoff teams for the past few years have been after 32 games.

'09 - Angels (1.5 GB, 17-15), Twins (3 GB, 15-17), Yankees (6.5 GB, 15-17), Red Sox (1 GB, 20-12), Philadelphia (2 GB, 16-16), St. Louis (2 GA, 20-12), Dodgers (5.5 GA, 22-10), Rockies (8.5 GB, 13-19)

'08 - Rays (3.5 GB, 17-15), Red Sox (1.5 GA, 19-13), Chicago (1.5 GB, 15-17), Angels (1 GA, 19-13), Phillies (.5 GA, 18-14), Cubs (2.5 GB, 18-14), Brewers (5 GB, 16-16), Dodgers (3 GB, 18-14).

'07 - Red Sox (6 GA, 22-10), Yankees (6 GB, 16-16), Cleveland (.5 GB, 20-12), Angels (1 GA, 17-15), Phillies (5.5 GB, 14-18), Cubs (7 GB, 16-16), Arizona (3 GB, 16-16), Colorado (5 GB, 14-18)

I could go further... but I think even just with 3 years, this gives us some good information.

1) We, as Red Sox fans, probably perceive that teams have to start out well because over the past 3 years, the Red Sox have done exactly that. Based on our own recent history, merely starting .500 through 32 games seems like a death knell.
2) 11 of the past 24 post-season participants were at .500 or BELOW 32 games into the season.

None of this is saying the Red Sox will be able to make up the deficit they have carved out for themselves. The teams above them may just be too strong. However, it would not take a historic run for the Red Sox to make the playoffs... the past 3 years show that half the teams that make the playoffs (including teams from the AL East) have been at .500 at this point in the season.

This is fine, but it doesn't take into account that the Red Sox have to leapfrog two teams, not just one (and I'm not even counting the Blue Jays, although their pitching staff is better than expected this year). So looking at '07, when, yes, the Yankees made the playoffs after starting 16-16 and being 6 GB, isn't really helpful, because the team they caught - the Sox - also made the playoffs, and there was no interfering 3rd team. And unfortunately, the two teams the '10 Sox have to catch are the two best teams in baseball. Reading this thread, I think I'm one of the more optimistic posters, but the Sox don't have some NL Central schmucks in front of them.

[seantoo]

Who would take Ortiz with his $12.5M contract and his .680 OPS? If he improves his performance at bat enough to make him attractive to other teams, wouldn't he also be valuable to Boston?

OttoC, I mention it only as a possibility, yes it's not a strong one I agree. He is starting to hit and then he becomes as valuable to us as someone else which makes it null and void. If he continues to progress AND the Sox are concerned that he could not sustain it for the rest of the year, then it at least opens that door. I'm big on opening as many doors as possible. Changing the preconceived parameters we all put on ourselves & problems that we encounter. I think if someone was willing to take on Lowell's deal then it's conceivable someone would do the same with Ortiz despite his only ability being as a hitter as this point.
I was not clear enough in my prior post.

[JimD]

This is fine, but it doesn't take into account that the Red Sox have to leapfrog two teams, not just one (and I'm not even counting the Blue Jays, although their pitching staff is better than expected this year). So looking at '07, when, yes, the Yankees made the playoffs after starting 16-16 and being 6 GB, isn't really helpful, because the team they caught - the Sox - also made the playoffs, and there was no interfering 3rd team. And unfortunately, the two teams the '10 Sox have to catch are the two best teams in baseball. Reading this thread, I think I'm one of the more optimistic posters, but the Sox don't have some NL Central schmucks in front of them.

The Sox 'only' have to pass one of those teams to make the playoffs, plus whatever lesser teams may get in the way (Detroit, Toronto and Oakland as of this morning).

[JakeRae]

This is fine, but it doesn't take into account that the Red Sox have to leapfrog two teams, not just one (and I'm not even counting the Blue Jays, although their pitching staff is better than expected this year). So looking at '07, when, yes, the Yankees made the playoffs after starting 16-16 and being 6 GB, isn't really helpful, because the team they caught - the Sox - also made the playoffs, and there was no interfering 3rd team. And unfortunately, the two teams the '10 Sox have to catch are the two best teams in baseball. Reading this thread, I think I'm one of the more optimistic posters, but the Sox don't have some NL Central schmucks in front of them.

Except, the Red Sox only have to pass one of the Yankees and the Rays. The goal is to make the playoffs. Winning the division is nice, not having your season end on Oct. 3 is priceless.

So, looking at the Yankees and how they have, in several recent seasons, gotten off to slow starts and still overcome the Red Sox shows us that this is certainly possible, if not probable. The odds calculators agree with this sentiment. BP has their playoff odds at almost 15 percent, jumping to almost 19 using the PECOTA adjusted forecast (which I would still trust more at this point in the season). A 1 in 5 chance may not be great, but it isn't trivial.

This is still a very good baseball team that will be in contention through September unless they sustain catastrophic injuries. That was true at the beginning of the season. It is true today.

[absintheofmalaise]

OttoC, I mention it only as a possibility, yes it's not a strong one I agree. He is starting to hit and then he becomes as valuable to us as someone else which makes it null and void. If he continues to progress AND the Sox are concerned that he could not sustain it for the rest of the year, then it at least opens that door. I'm big on opening as many doors as possible. Changing the preconceived parameters we all put on ourselves & problems that we encounter. I think if someone was willing to take on Lowell's deal then it's conceivable someone would do the same with Ortiz despite his only ability being as a hitter as this point.
I was not clear enough in my prior post.

Texas was not willing to take on Lowell's deal. It was reported that the Sox were going to pay $9mm of his $12mm salary. How is that "someone willing to take on his deal?"

[URI]

I have no idea how old this article is, but the author concludes (using games in the late 1970s and early 1980s) that pitching/defense is between 54% and 58% of the game.

Well it doesn't say that. It says defense is 54% and 58% of the game. A big chunk of that would be fielding.

[czar]

Well it doesn't say that. It says defense is 54% and 58% of the game. A big chunk of that would be fielding.

Maybe I misread something...

For both leagues, defense, as represented by pitching (earned-run average) and fielding, is more important to Team Wins than the offensive statistic, runs scored, as follows: A.L.: 58%-42%; N.L.: 54%-46%.

Edited by czar, 11 May 2010 - 08:55 AM.

[URI]

No, I missed that he said "pitching/defense" rather than just pitching.

Either way, it destroys the made point that pitching itself is anything more than about 40% of the game, let alone 50-90%.

[trekfan55]

Re: Cuzzit's chart

One glaring thing in this chart is that in 09, 08, and 07 the Sox had a great start, they even were ahead in the division in 2 of the 3 years. Then they lost steam as the season wore on and in two of the 3 cases lost the division (once to the Yanks, once to the Rays, and 2007 was a lot closer than anyone ever thought would be, prompting Yankee Fans to chant 1978). I won't even bring up 2006.

My point is that not only do the Sox need to go on a tear (which is doable) and leapfrog over either the Rays or the Yankees, but they need to play in an atypical way for them. Here's hoping they can do it.

So far, I am not looking at the standings yet.

[bosockboy]

Re: Cuzzit's chart

One glaring thing in this chart is that in 09, 08, and 07 the Sox had a great start, they even were ahead in the division in 2 of the 3 years. Then they lost steam as the season wore on and in two of the 3 cases lost the division (once to the Yanks, once to the Rays, and 2007 was a lot closer than anyone ever thought would be, prompting Yankee Fans to chant 1978). I won't even bring up 2006.

My point is that not only do the Sox need to go on a tear (which is doable) and leapfrog over either the Rays or the Yankees, but they need to play in an atypical way for them. Here's hoping they can do it.

So far, I am not looking at the standings yet.

Maybe finally being the hunter instead of the hunted will suit them well. If they got their yearly swoon out of their system in April I'll be just fine with it.

[Bdanahy14]

Am I wrong for not giving a crap what Coolstandings says in May? I mean, with 32 games - those percentages can swing quickly in either direction in a very small period of time. I keep comparing it to a players BA or OBP early in the season... with such a small sample the percentages can swing to drastically and to quickly for me to be to worried about it.

They had a 4.4 chance of making the playoffs yesterday - today its a 6.9% chance. We win a few more and it can easily be 10-12%.

Like I said, I may be wrong - but I never really even consider checking coolstandings till July comes.

We just need to win games. We need some sweeps. We need to play better against the good teams... but at the end of today, especially with Vazquez pitching - we could find ourselves 4 back from the Yankees on May 12th.

[seantoo]

Texas was not willing to take on Lowell's deal. It was reported that the Sox were going to pay $9mm of his $12mm salary. How is that "someone willing to take on his deal?"

The deal was agreed upon in principle, with the parameters you give, and only canceled when Lowell failed the physical with his thumb or wrist and not his hip. That is the same type of deal I would expect to be revisited again at some point. The further the season goes on the less money the Sox would have to swallow and the same may be true for the other team as well.

Consider the deal was done. The player has proven to be more healthy than most of us anticipated to the point he could back up at third for another team and certainly DH. His contract is smaller with each game. Should the Sox fall out of contention the Sox rest assured will off load at least one of these players if even for a second tier prospect or a reliever at the back end of the pen. This may happen regardless of contention. In either case they Sox would of course have to eat most of the contract.

Edited by seantoo, 11 May 2010 - 11:28 PM.

[czar]

Am I wrong for not giving a crap what Coolstandings says in May? I mean, with 32 games - those percentages can swing quickly in either direction in a very small period of time. I keep comparing it to a players BA or OBP early in the season... with such a small sample the percentages can swing to drastically and to quickly for me to be to worried about it.

They had a 4.4 chance of making the playoffs yesterday - today its a 6.9% chance. We win a few more and it can easily be 10-12%.

Like I said, I may be wrong - but I never really even consider checking coolstandings till July comes.

Not that I'm putting any weight in them this early, but a word about Cool Standings' projection schemes.

The "smart" projections at Cool Standings (the ones that are in the "single digits" in terms of playoff odds referenced above) assume the Red Sox pythag (which is poor, to say the least) will hold for the remainder of the season. Unless you figure the team to finish with 70-80 wins (our current pythag 162-game estimate), it won't, so it's not really a good assumption working a month's sample size.

The "dumb" projections (everyone is 50/50 to win every game) is probably a bit more apt if you assume the pythag will improve as the team performs up to their projections, and the Sox are at ~25% to make it after tonight. This will devalue good teams and overvalue bad teams but it will eliminate the whole "projection scheme thinks the Sox are going to be an under .500 team the remainder of the season" thing.

[The Gray Eagle]

Must win in May, Part Deux?

There obviously no must-win games in May, but the hole they're digging is very deep. It seems pretty important to not dig it any deeper tonight. Also, it'd be great for everyone if Beckett came up big tonight instead of being a Yankee punching bag yet again.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The good news is that it's raining pretty heavily in NYC, perhaps we get a rain out.