86 replies to this topic

[Paul M]

Maybe this is adding fuel to the fire that is the Rock Bottom thread, but from where I sit 500 miles from Fenway, tomorrow night as is as close to must-win before the calendar even hits June as any game in a long time. For most of the last 15 years or so, .500 through the first 40 or so games was tolerable. Now, you have a team that's obviously performing well below expectations (under .500 and more importantly allowing nearly 6 runs per game!) PLUS you have two super-elite teams in the AL East.

Moreover, the Sox have not fared well versus Tampa this year or NY at all since last spring. In sum, I don't think this team can afford to fall 9 losses behind the Yankees who might have the usual back of the rotation problems, they have only started out as fast as any Yankee team in a long time. And they've managed well despite their own rash of injuries and slow starts from some key bats.

I hope I'm just overreacting and I am tempted to just not even hit add this given it is not even May 15th. So, tell me I'm nuts and that the Sox can make up 9 losses if they do in fact lose tomorrow night. And if they fall 10, 12 whatever games out by June they really have few commodities worth a lot so I am not sure there's even a silver lining to be found. Lester has a chance to be the true ace and I think he will come up big and we need it: because for me it's do or die.

[Trautwein's Degree]

Paul you're as rational and as astute of a poster on this site. Y ou're not nuts. This team won't make up ground against the Rays or the Yankees for the simple reason that they're no where near as good as either of those teams. The only point I disagree with you on is that tomorrow is must win. The damage has already been done. The hole is already too deep.

Edited by Trautwein's Degree, 08 May 2010 - 08:18 PM.

[mr_smith02]

Maybe this is adding fuel to the fire that is the Rock Bottom thread, but from where I sit 500 miles from Fenway, tomorrow night as is as close to must-win before the calendar even hits June as any game in a long time. For most of the last 15 years or so, .500 through the first 40 or so games was tolerable. Now, you have a team that's obviously performing well below expectations (under .500 and more importantly allowing nearly 6 runs per game!) PLUS you have two super-elite teams in the AL East.

Moreover, the Sox have not fared well versus Tampa this year or NY at all since last spring. In sum, I don't think this team can afford to fall 9 losses behind the Yankees who might have the usual back of the rotation problems, they have only started out as fast as any Yankee team in a long time. And they've managed well despite their own rash of injuries and slow starts from some key bats.

I hope I'm just overreacting and I am tempted to just not even hit add this given it is not even May 15th. So, tell me I'm nuts and that the Sox can make up 9 losses if they do in fact lose tomorrow night. And if they fall 10, 12 whatever games out by June they really have few commodities worth a lot so I am not sure there's even a silver lining to be found. Lester has a chance to be the true ace and I think he will come up big and we need it: because for me it's do or die.

This team, as currently assembled, is done. No Division title with the Rays and Yanks in the way. No Wild Card for the exact same reason. I really feel like their built for some spurts of quality play and to play spoiler down the stretch.

I do not know the logistics of changing this current roster, but it needs to happen.

[yecul]

Well that depends. What is your goal? The playoffs? Yes, they have to turn it around but quick. Being above .500? Plenty of time for that? Winning 88-92 games and finishing third? Definitely a chance of that happening.

Anyone who doesn't see them as the third best team in the division must be watching different games. Face facts, TB and NY are better. The better team won today and only have a Lester-gem holding them back from a sweep.

Must they win to be better going forward? No. The pitching will improve. The OF will get health. Players will start approaching their normal levels of production. That still won't all add up to a team that can win the 95+ (++?) needed to score a playoff spot.

To those that want to hedge themselves and say there's a chance, sure there is, they are not playoff eliminated now. Does that make you feel better about their performance or their chances?

[Mike Greenwall]

I've tried to be patient and not get too high or too low through the first 6 weeks, but if Boston can't get a meaningful win tomorrow night, my expectations for this year has to change. It sucks this is only May 8th, and they might go 20-5 in a month, but if they lose Sunday, I'll be following this team differently. To see the development of our two young SP, and other individual performances will be my focus. If the AL East only had one strong team, it would be different, but the hole Boston could find themselves in very soon is daunting to say the least.

I'll take shit from this board all year if I'm wrong. I hope I am.

[SonsOfCharlieZink]

Time to build a World Series winning caliber team for 2012.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The talent just doesn't appear to be there. It seemed like the Sox had a better staff than the MFY and Rays, but in hindsight, it's probably not true. Both those teams have pretty deep and effective staffs, perhaps better than the Sox. Sox offense, which has been pretty good, is certainly inferior to the MFY, and it seems like there are a lot of hitters on the team that feast on the dregs of the league more than most and are rendered useless vs. good pitching.

The defense may be better, but it's certainly not making highlight reels on a nightly basis like we may have been led to believe. At this point, you just hope they start playing better and see what happens. It's not as if there are a lot of major league ready players in the minors; so the Sox pretty much have to sink or swim with what they've got.

Ultimately, it seems like there are only a few really good teams in the league (MFY, TB, Minnesota); so the Sox should be able to get things going. But I don't expect them, at this point, to do much damage against the Yankees or Rays.

[SoxFanSince57]

The MFY have started out as hot as I can remember in recent history. They and TB won't play .733/.724 ball for the rest of the year. They will come back to earth.

The Sox will come back, but I am not overly confident that they will hit on enough cylinders to make it into the post season. I am not as down on the pitching staff as most and I think the return of our OF will provide some uplift emotionally and performance wise.

Unfortunately, I believe it will be hard for this club to make it into the post season as constructed and right now, I really don't think there are any realistic options on the trade front that will change things. I am expecting we will see a Sox "fire sale" in July, but there is still a sliver of hope. Right now, I am hoping that Lowell becomes DH, our starters and relievers return to form and the batting order outperforms their career norms. Like I said, I have some hope. It is way too early to throw in the towel.

Baseball remains "a funny game" where anything can happen.

[irinmike]

Right now this team is a bridge to no where. Pitching has not even begun to live up to its billing, and we know hitting was suspect before the season even started. Can't hold a runner on first, even if its a catcher running. Defense has not lived up to the preseason billing, and the team in general just does not appear to have the spark necessary to compete against elite teams like the MFY and Rays.

[BucketOBalls]

I wouldn't call it a must win, but what needs to happen.

-Everyone needs to hit at their career levels or close to it, with a few people doing slighly better.

-Becket and Lackey need to start posting sub 4 ERA's stat. And they need to pitch well vs GOOD teams.

-The bullpen needs to not suck

-They need production from the DH spot. Either from Ortiz or a replacement

-Really, every game vs TB and NYY is a must win at this point. They probably need a winning record vs the two best teams in baseball at this point.

The most likely thing is that only some of those things happen and they fall short would be my guess. The potential is there, but a whole lot of things need to change their current direction.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

It's corny, but I think the 6th inning yesterday really had an effect on this team. They were feeling good about themselves post-Angels, were getting a decent performance out of Beckett (certainly a thrilling first two innings), and looked like they had a chance to dent Hughes, who's been lights-out thus far (10 hits in his first 25 innings).

Then the wheels came off as fast as I've seen in a long time. Beckett looked like someone just stole his Binky, Beltre made yet another bone-headed play (cover the goddamn bag!), and suddenly everyone's staring at their feet digging in the dirt.

Clay looked like he wanted to be anywhere other than on the mound in the rain today, even against a line-up with Winn, Cervelli, AND Pena in it, and the team was quickly back to its listless ways. That was a pounding they took today, and no one looked all that interested in doing anything about it.

Theo's said it on more than one occasion: The team often just doesn't look like it came to play. Sure, that's how you see it in retrospect when they get spanked, and maybe it is a talent deficiency, but since when does Josh Beckett give up nine runs in a start? Why can't Beltre make elementary baseball decisions? Why doesn't Pedroia walk anymore? Youkilis hardly seems angry when he strikes out three times in a row.

Considering Papi's recent comments, Lowell's comments, Theo's frustrations, etc., this seems hardly to be singularly focused on winning. They get swept tomorrow at home by the Yanks? There could be a death spiral on the way.

Who knows what must win really means in a 162-game season, but it sure seems like it could keep this team from completely falling apart.

[paulftodd]

They have 131 games remaining. They must catch either TBR or the MFY to get to the playoffs. They have 26 games remaining against these 2. They can play 650 ball in the other 105 games and tack on 68 wins, that gives them a 83 - 53 record. But to get to 95+ wins, they have to play at least 500 against the Rays and Yankees. If they are not good enough to do that, they don;t deserve to be in the playoffs anyways.

This is arguably the easiest stretch of games on the schedule. Most of the tougher teams played at home, and a bunch of games against bad teams like the KCR, LAA and Orioles. Both Texas and Toronto were struggling at the time we played them. It gets a lot tougher from May 15 onward.

FWIW, the Yankees were 15-16 last year and 5.5 games down. They won 103 games.

Edited by paulftodd, 08 May 2010 - 09:43 PM.

[Ed Hillel]

FWIW, the Yankees were 15-16 last year and 5.5 games down. They won 103 games.

The Yankees also had a vastly superior team and were missing one of the best players of all time in his prime.

This team just isn't good enough. They'll win 88 games, give or take a few, and finish in third. Part of it is a result of the team having to add an extra year to keep players around (Lowell, Ortiz), part of it is because Theo and ownership missed out on a few opportunities (namely Teixiera), and part of it is because they're quite possibly in a division with the two best teams in baseball. The starting pitching should turn it around, though I suppose Beckett is up for argument, and should still end up one of the better 3 or so in baseball. The hitting and bullpen, however, aren't going to get that much better anytime soon. They need a slugger or two, and guys like that just aren't available right now and will come at a premium cost later in the year. The thing is that, at that point later in the year, the team will likely be completely out of it. Theo and ownership will have to decide whether or not to sell a guy like Papelbon and maybe go after Adrian Gonzalez (if he's available) at the cost of prospects or if they're better off waiting and pursuing some guys like Crawford/Werth in the offseason.

Anyway, to answer this question, no. Tomorrow's game doesn't matter, because they're just not good enough to win the 96+ games that will likely be required to make the playoffs in this division.

I'm not quitting or anything, because baseball is awesome, and nothing is certain here, but I'm not going to get upset when they lose to superior teams. The Baltimore series...now that was upsetting.

Edited by Ed Hillel, 08 May 2010 - 09:00 PM.

[Vermonter At Large]

I'm not sure which thread to put this in, but think that the assumption that the lineup will get better when Ellsbury and Cameron return is questionable. Watching recent games, I'm not sure if Ellsbury is any better or will ever be any better than Darnell McDonald is right now, which isn't saying a lot. Ellsbury seems to have more holes in his swing (especially against same-handed pitchers), has less power, and may not be a significant defensive upgrade. Speed aside, is Ellsbury really ever going to be much more than replacement-level? We haven't seen enough of Cameron to be judgemental yet, but he certainly isn't going to be a better offensive player than McDonald or Hermida, so his value is going to be based on how good his defense really is. He's certainly not going to be good enough to prevent those 3-run homers we've been seeing too much of lately.

I'm not meaning to dump on these guys, but I think the assumption that their return is going to right the ship is far from a sure thing.

[DukeSox]

part of it is because Theo and ownership missed out on a few opportunities (namely Teixiera)

Come on man, they were never going to get him. Any increased bid would be topped by the Yankees -- which is what he and his wife wanted. I thought everyone knew that at this point.

[Ed Hillel]

Come on man, they were never going to get him. Any increased bid would be topped by the Yankees -- which is what he and his wife wanted. I thought everyone knew that at this point.

Not sure if you're being sarcastic or not but:

I've heard a lot of stories about these meetings. One of them, which I believe Michael Holley was talking about, is that either the night before he signed with the Yankees or a few nights before, Boras came to Theo and said "if you agree to pay X amount [which I believe was ~184 million] right now we will sign the contract right now." The story from Holley is that Theo brought it to Henry and Henry said no. But even Holley said he wasn't sure, but "that's how the story goes." I've also heard Mazz talk about the same thing.

I haven't heard/read anywhere that the intention from the beginning was to sign with the NYY. Do you have a link/source for that? Not saying you're wrong, I've just never seen it.

Anyway, this is tangential. The Sox aren't good enough, for whatever reasons, and they aren't going to get better in time to make the playoffs.

[pk1627]

FWIW, the Yankees were 15-16 last year and 5.5 games down. They won 103 games.

But they won their must game in May.

[The Gray Eagle]

They have 26 games remaining against these 2.

Oh my god, I don't know if I can watch that many more ass-beatings. Like 17 of those are on the road, too right?

Tampa and NY have come into Fenway and beat the living shit out of the Red Sox every way you can beat a team. At this point, the Sox are barely even putting up any resistance. We're 14-8 against everyone else in the league, but these two have annihilated Boston at Fenway already in most of the matchups that will be played in Boston this year. After tomorrow, we'll have played 10 home games against these 2, with what, 9 left at home?

When you play teams is a big, big part of the randomness of a long baseball season. Well the schedule has given us loads of home games against these team when the Sox are playing like garbage and both of them are just killing everyone. There's plenty of time left for the Red Sox to win 90 games or whatever this year, but with so many road games left against these two teams, it's just going to be incredibly hard to make up ground. And we won't get to 90 if we don't start showing up in the head-to-head matchups.

Sunday is not a must-win game, because even if the Sox win, they'll still be way behind both and will still have gotten destroyed in the early season head-to-head home games that are now gone from the schedule. It's a really-really-want-to-win-game to save some freaking pride and avoid humiliation. Show you aren't just wetting your pants every single game when these teams come to your park, and we'll go from there.

Neither of these teams has any fear of playing the Red Sox in Fenway, in fact they play like they couldn't be happier to be there. I guess we couldn't do any worse on the road in these matchups, so we've got that going for us in all those many games to come in Tampa and NY.

[bob burda]

I'm going to go back to the design of the '66 to '83 Orioles, because I still think this is the template from which the Sox try to work, especially now.

In '83 Bill James wrote a piece on SF, comparing the way F.Robby ran that team with Weaver's Orioles. James said that the Orioles under Weaver always established a rotation in the spring and stayed with it, and they would wait for their starting pitchers to round into form as the weather got warmer. They would invariably start "cold," lose to lousy teams and play at or near .500 - and then the pitching would lock in and they'd be off to another division title. They teased the Sox a lot this way back then. The Sox would lead in May, and then the Orioles would get hot in June and bury them ('71, '73, and '74 come to mind - and everybody thought it was happening again in '75 but the Sox held them off - you can maybe add '79 to this list). After '71, most of those Oriole teams were good for 90-95 wins a year (sometimes more, rarely less) - and that usually was enough.

I think when you build around good pitching and more specifically, a good starting staff, this is the way it goes. You can see the Sox getting good later on, with the pitching rounding into form - and then nobody wanting to play them. The problem, as pointed out by others, is the MFYs and Rays look stronger than 90-95 wins. The Orioles confronted this problem in '78 - winning 90 games and finishing FOURTH. So the timing for the "old Orioles strategy" is bad for this particular year - but you can see the Yanks aging/declining in future years (nobody lasts forever, and late 30's guys decline - in all cases), and the Rays' talent base probably is not sustainable because of its cost....and the Sox will still have that pitching.

There is still the possibility that the pitching is not what it's supposed to be - that Lackey and Beckett turn into Barry Zito Lite, Clay regresses, Lester has an off year, Dice-K never gets it back, Papelbon continues to walk 7 per 9 innings etc - making the Sox an 80 win club or worse. I think it is more likely that the weather gets hot, the pitching comes around and they win 85-90 games - which ain't gonna do it - but would be more entertaining than this.

They will only be in a race if disaster strikes the clubs ahead of them. My comfort there is that the MFYs are more likely to be the club to implode than the Rays, because the MFYs count on so many players who are long in the tooth.

So my conclusion is that tomorrow's game is of significant importance only if you think disaster is going to strike the Rays or the MFYs and bring one of them into the 85-90 win level, that the Sox would get to that level, and that some other WC contender outside the AL East will not be better than 85-90 wins. I don't think ALL those things will happen, and hence I do not think tomorrow's game is a must win.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

-Really, every game vs TB and NYY is a must win at this point. They probably need a winning record vs the two best teams in baseball at this point.

I doubt there was ever a possibility of a playoff run if they couldn't put up a winning record against one or both teams. There's no reason to believe the Sox were going to be able to beat up on the rest of the league to such an extent that they could get away with anything less than .500 against both.

[Bleedred]

Not sure if you're being sarcastic or not but:

I've heard a lot of stories about these meetings. One of them, which I believe Michael Holley was talking about, is that either the night before he signed with the Yankees or a few nights before, Boras came to Theo and said "if you agree to pay X amount [which I believe was ~184 million] right now we will sign the contract right now." The story from Holley is that Theo brought it to Henry and Henry said no. But even Holley said he wasn't sure, but "that's how the story goes." I've also heard Mazz talk about the same thing.

I haven't heard/read anywhere that the intention from the beginning was to sign with the NYY. Do you have a link/source for that? Not saying you're wrong, I've just never seen it.

Anyway, this is tangential. The Sox aren't good enough, for whatever reasons, and they aren't going to get better in time to make the playoffs.

Sorry for the sidetrack, but I couldn't agree more with the bolded version of Ed's post. The way business is done is if you really want a player (in my business, it's commercial real estate), you get the Seller to state their asking price and you agree to do the deal at that price and don't let the Seller shop the deal or walk out of the room until they sign a contract or letter of intent. Even if the story isn't true, it doesn't mean it couldn't have been true. In other words, if the Red Sox really wanted Texeira and didn't want the Yankees to be a stalking horse bidder, then Henry, Luchino and Epstein could have made very clear to Boras and Texeira that they were not leaving Texas without a deal done. While that may have been giving up their leverage at the time of the negotiation, it would have effectively taken the Yankees out of the bidding, assuming the Sox were amenable to paying Tex's asking price. The sox decided not to do that, which was their prerogative, but the consequences of that decision IMO will have a 5 year effect on the success of the team.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

In other words, if the Red Sox really wanted Texeira and didn't want the Yankees to be a stalking horse bidder, then Henry, Luchino and Epstein could have made very clear to Boras and Texeira that they were not leaving Texas without a deal done. While that may have been giving up their leverage at the time of the negotiation, it would have effectively taken the Yankees out of the bidding, assuming the Sox were amenable to paying Tex's asking price. T

Yeah, the devil, as they say, is in the details. What do you suppose Scott Boras would have proposed as a don't-make-me-call-the-Yankees number? And what happens when it makes the guy who signs the paychecks choke?

That number might have been $184m, but that is "as the story goes." And meaning no particular disrespect to Holley and Mazz, they're not journalists. They're radio personalities who know guys who have agendas.

[Bleedred]

Yeah, the devil, as they say, is in the details. What do you suppose Scott Boras would have proposed as a don't-make-me-call-the-Yankees number? And what happens when it makes the guy who signs the paychecks choke?

That number might have been $184m, but that is "as the story goes." And meaning no particular disrespect to Holley and Mazz, they're not journalists. They're radio personalities who know guys who have agendas.

You may be right, but the sox brass are business people and they know that they could have closed that deal. There was a number where it gets him to sign the contract, and they chose not to go there. Again, that's their choice, but I find it hard to believe that they didn't sign him because the sox brass feared they were being used as leverage against the yanks. They know, as hard core business people, that they could control that and they chose not to.

[Plympton91]

I've tried to be patient and not get too high or too low through the first 6 weeks, but if Boston can't get a meaningful win tomorrow night, my expectations for this year has to change. It sucks this is only May 8th, and they might go 20-5 in a month,

What sucks is that they might go 20-5 over the next month, and not make up more than 2 or 3 of the 8 games they're down to Tampa and NY.

This team doesn't suck. The 2004 team played .500 baseball for almost half the season, won the wild card going away, and then won the world series.

The problem is simply that this team is not as good as Tampa and NY. Sure, the Red Sox have a great rotation that is the strength of the team. The Yankees have a better rotation. Given the development of Davis and Price, Tampa Bay might actually have a better rotation than the Yankees.

And in the case of the Yankees, when healthy, they have an all star at every position in their lineup, and are going to simply beat even the best pitching staffs senseless all season. The Red Sox have a nice lineup, but they're going to get shut down by the best pitching staffs all season.

[SoxFanPJ]

Sorry for the sidetrack, but I couldn't agree more with the bolded version of Ed's post. The way business is done is if you really want a player (in my business, it's commercial real estate), you get the Seller to state their asking price and you agree to do the deal at that price and don't let the Seller shop the deal or walk out of the room until they sign a contract or letter of intent. Even if the story isn't true, it doesn't mean it couldn't have been true. In other words, if the Red Sox really wanted Texeira and didn't want the Yankees to be a stalking horse bidder, then Henry, Luchino and Epstein could have made very clear to Boras and Texeira that they were not leaving Texas without a deal done. While that may have been giving up their leverage at the time of the negotiation, it would have effectively taken the Yankees out of the bidding, assuming the Sox were amenable to paying Tex's asking price. The sox decided not to do that, which was their prerogative, but the consequences of that decision IMO will have a 5 year effect on the success of the team.

'
Not to get all Teixeira tangential, but he was on the Dan Patrick show this past week and said that when considering where to sign, he had an actual (not metaphorical) checklist, and that when he went through it with the multiple teams that were pursuing him, the Yankees were the only team that got a check mark in each category. Basically it was were he and his wife wanted to go all along.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Please. In baseball there is no must-win game in May. Whether the Sox win tomorrow or not, they are not getting into the playoffs as constructed.

The Yankees are simply better than the Sox this year, and it would take season-ending injuries to Arod, Teixeira, and Sabathia to close the gap. The Rays are simply better than the Sox this year, and it would take season-ending injuries to Crawford, Garza, and Price to close the gap.

With both of those teams standing in the way, the Sox are looking at 3rd-4th place whether they win tomorrow or not. Unless the lead-pipe list gets some play.

[MoVaughnsTruck]

'
Not to get all Teixeira tangential, but he was on the Dan Patrick show this past week and said that when considering where to sign, he had an actual (not metaphorical) checklist, and that when he went through it with the multiple teams that were pursuing him, the Yankees were the only team that got a check mark in each category. Basically it was were he and his wife wanted to go all along.

I'm curious what was on Teixeira's checklist. All I've read was that Don Mattingly was his favorite player growing up, and the Yankees were his first choice. Taking offers from other teams was just a ploy to drive up the price.

[Ed Hillel]

You may be right, but the sox brass are business people and they know that they could have closed that deal. There was a number where it gets him to sign the contract, and they chose not to go there. Again, that's their choice, but I find it hard to believe that they didn't sign him because the sox brass feared they were being used as leverage against the yanks. They know, as hard core business people, that they could control that and they chose not to.

Right, and again sorry to sidetrack, but even though we don't know whether the story is accurate we do know that this current ownership has done the same thing in the past. I don't remember the exact number, but didn't the exact same thing happen with ARod back in 2003? The number was around 6 to 8 million for a contract that was approaching similar number to Texiera's IIRC and Henry didn't pull the trigger. Then Georgie sent out that (somewhat hilarious) email to the press crapping on Henry for doing it. I completely understand the strategy when you're talking about value players, but I think when it comes to superstars who come around once every 5 years or so, you have to pay the money. I think Ownership here is generally pretty willing to overspend in terms of value or additional years, but I also think they've made a few key mistakes, and I would not be surprised at all if Texiera was one of them. And, if that is indeed the case, I don't blame Theo at all. It wasn't his call.

Not to get all Teixeira tangential, but he was on the Dan Patrick show this past week and said that when considering where to sign, he had an actual (not metaphorical) checklist, and that when he went through it with the multiple teams that were pursuing him, the Yankees were the only team that got a check mark in each category. Basically it was were he and his wife wanted to go all along.

Well, I'd like to completely believe that horse-faced douchebag, but there's part of me that wonders whether he's just saying that now that he's in New York. I'm not saying it's not true, just that he would have reason to mayhaps stretch the truth without consequence.

Edited by Ed Hillel, 08 May 2010 - 11:22 PM.

[Plympton91]

'
Not to get all Teixeira tangential, but he was on the Dan Patrick show this past week and said that when considering where to sign, he had an actual (not metaphorical) checklist, and that when he went through it with the multiple teams that were pursuing him, the Yankees were the only team that got a check mark in each category. Basically it was were he and his wife wanted to go all along.

It would be incredibly stupid for Teixeira to say anything different once he decided to sign with the Yankees. Sure, it might be true, but he wasn't running around saying it while other teams were still bidding for his services, so saying it now is just public relations 101. I don't think it's worth much.

Of course, as a Boras client, we know that one of the things on the checklist was "team that pays me the most money," and that's always the Yankees if they want it to be.

[judyb]

Yeah, the devil, as they say, is in the details. What do you suppose Scott Boras would have proposed as a don't-make-me-call-the-Yankees number? And what happens when it makes the guy who signs the paychecks choke?

That number might have been $184m, but that is "as the story goes." And meaning no particular disrespect to Holley and Mazz, they're not journalists. They're radio personalities who know guys who have agendas.

Even according to Mazz, the $184M came with 2 easily vesting options years at $20+M each.

[SoxFanPJ]

Davenport's Postseason Odds Calculator

Before today's loss the Sox look like an 82-80 team with a 4% shot at the World Series Title, 9.5% chance at the WC and 13.5% chance to make the playoffs.

Even if the Rays play .500 the rest of the year they would finish 88-74,if they play .550 its 94.6-67.4. If the Yankees played .500 would be on pace for 87.5-74.5, and if its .550 they end up at 94.15-67.85.

If the Sox play .500 they would be at 80.5-81.5. Even if they play .600 ball they finish around 93.6-68.4. IF they play .550 ball they end up around 87.05-74.95.

Sox winning percentage by year
2004- .605
2005- .586
2006- .531
2007- .593
2008- .586
2009- .586
2010- .484

Just for comparisons sake Winning percentage as of May 8, of each year.

2004- .633
2005- .581
2006- .613
2007- .677
2008- .622
2009- .633
2010- .484

FWIW, the numbers don't seem like they are on the Sox side this year. It seems to me its just going to be to hard to make up ground against two teams, that would have to collapse pretty hard to fall behind the Sox in the standings.

[DukeSox]

The way business is done is if you really want a player (in my business, it's commercial real estate), you get the Seller to state their asking price and you agree to do the deal at that price

Then you're a chump if you simply give the seller whatever his asking price is. Any intelligent buyer negotiates down from that starting point.

Whatever, immaterial. The Red Sox starting rotation consists of pitchers with good history. If these pitchers can perform as expected over the next 131 games, the Red Sox have a good chance to climb back in the race. If these pitchers perform worse than expected...well, there's not much you can do about that. I am more optimistic than others in this thread; it's a long season and much will happen between now and September.

[BucketOBalls]

Right, and again sorry to sidetrack, but even though we don't know whether the story is accurate we do know that this current ownership has done the same thing in the past. I don't remember the exact number, but didn't the exact same thing happen with ARod back in 2003? The number was around 6 to 8 million for a contract that was approaching similar number to Texiera's IIRC and Henry didn't pull the trigger. Then Georgie sent out that (somewhat hilarious) email to the press crapping on Henry for doing it. I completely understand the strategy when you're talking about value players, but I think when it comes to superstars who come around once every 5 years or so, you have to pay the money. I think Ownership here is generally pretty willing to overspend in terms of value or additional years, but I also think they've made a few key mistakes, and I would not be surprised at all if Texiera was one of them. And, if that is indeed the case, I don't blame Theo at all. It wasn't his call.

Huh? I generally agree with you on superstars, but there really havn't been many to reach FA while Theo was around.

Texas gave A-Rod the giant contract and he was traded to the MFY 2003. I suppose you could have argued af the Sox had not wanted his contract restructured the trade would have gone though. However the Sox were supposed to send Manny the other way, so it wouldn't have been that big an upgrade actually. (The Yanks gave up...Alfonso Soriano and guy who never got out of AAA. A-Rod and Manny will be hall of famers unless there is ped backlash. Soriano...not so much).

It depends what catagory you put Teixeira in really.

[Ed Hillel]

Huh? I generally agree with you on superstars, but there really havn't been many to reach FA while Theo was around.

Texas gave A-Rod the giant contract and he was traded to the MFY 2003. I suppose you could have argued af the Sox had not wanted his contract restructured the trade would have gone though. However the Sox were supposed to send Manny the other way, so it wouldn't have been that big an upgrade actually. (The Yanks gave up...Alfonso Soriano and guy who never got out of AAA. A-Rod and Manny will be hall of famers unless there is ped backlash. Soriano...not so much).

It depends what catagory you put Teixeira in really.

How Manny performed and ARod performed at the time is hindsight. The perception at the time was that ARod would have made the Red Sox a better team, which is why the team was looking to make the trades for Konerko and ARod in the first place. The fact of the matter is that an amount less than 10 million dollars got in the way of the Sox obtaining ARod. Did it turn out well? Hell yeah, it did. But that's not the point, is it? I guess I don't understand why you pay for an extra year of Varitek at an amount higher than it would take to get ARod or Teixiera.

As for Teixiera, I'm trying to think of the last position-player FA of his caliber and nobody is coming to mind outside of ARod after his opt-out, and I'm not sure there was ever any real doubt as to where he was going to end up. Other than ARod? I'm sure I'm forgetting someone, but nobody is coming to mind in the past 5 years. Teixiera is an MVP talent that can swing a division.

Don't get me wrong, I think Theo and this ownership group are, overall, very good to excellent. Shitting on Theo for the results this year doesn't work for me. These guys have brought us 2 world championships, and we are forever indebted to them for that. They've also assembled an awesome rotation for the foreseeable future. I also completely understand why they gave the extra year to Ortiz and Lowell, and I think that's generally the right type of strategy for a big-market team, and I know that it means there are going to be down-years lke this. Given the situation this year, I don't think there's anything Theo could have possibly done this offseason to make this team a contender this year without spending well over 200 million. I just think that there have been a few instances from this ownership group with superstars where they have made mistakes by setting an absolute ceiling at the expense of a comparative pittance.

Whatever, immaterial.

Sorry, but having Mark Teixiera versus not having Mark Teixiera is far from being "immaterial."

If these pitchers can perform as expected over the next 131 games, the Red Sox have a good chance to climb back in the race.

They're probably gonna have to win 80 of those 131 to make the playoffs. To quantify the odds of that happening as "good" even with the starters performing as "expected" with this offense is, to say the least, optimistic.

Anyway, sorry for the sidetrack. I wasn't expecting the offhand comment in my original post to grow like this. I won't comment on it anymore here.

Edited by Ed Hillel, 09 May 2010 - 10:32 AM.

[barbed wire Bob]

Sorry, but having Mark Teixiera versus not having Mark Teixiera is far from being "immaterial."

It has been immaterial to this point in the season. If you assume the Red Sox did sign Teixiera then Youk would would be playing third instead of Beltre (assume Lowell is still with the team or his replacement is comparable). Under that assumption Teixiera essentially replaces Beltre. Teixiera's stats are: .207/.343/.396/.740. Beltre's stats are: .327/.358/.442/.801.

Now I do understand that Teixiera's numbers to date are an aberration and he will improve but, at the very least this should show the offense is not the problem. The very deep hole that this team is in was dug by the pitching staff, poor defense, injuries and an under-performing DH.

[bankshot1]

Teixiera = spilled milk

The Rays and MFYs are both better teams this year, the Sox are playing from way behind, and unless the Ys or Rays f up massively, or get real unlucky or real injured, there's no post-season party for the Sox this year.

Back in '02 or '03 Theo layed out the game plan for the Sox
-build a team for 95 wins
-rebuild the farms, selectively use FA
-hope you don't get side-tracked by injuries
-and you should get into the post-season more often than not.

And its turned out to be a sound game plan,
but this is shaping up to be a "not" year.
I'm not happy about it, as pennant races are more fun than being 20 games out in July

However it seems there might be a very good pennant race in the AL East year
just that the Sox aren't part of it (hello 1957-1966)
Not quite ready to say "Go Rays" but not I'm not that far from it either

so what does Theo do?
My guess is if by mid-June the Sox are in 3rd or 4th 10-15 games out
he's a selective/opportunistic seller, dump some salary, repositioning his team for '11 and '12
that maybe wish his mom and wife a Happy Mother's Day today

Edited by bankshot1, 09 May 2010 - 06:36 AM.

[BosRedSox5]

Every game is just as important, and at the end of the year we'll be wishing we had a few more wins... so must win games can come any time during the season. Bridge year or no, I thought we'd be much better than this, and we probably will be when it's all said and done... but as presently constructed I don't think this team will make the playoffs... and if they do it'll be a short stay. I don't see us trading a lot of prospects to get better either, but we could make a play for Berkman and pay the freight in exchange for a couple average prospects (no blue chip guys.) At least that's what the talking heads say the market will amount to. Also, maybe I'm just ignorant on this... but what exactly are we "bridging" to?

Michael Bowden (23)- Struggling in Pawtucket right now

Josh Riddick (23) and Ryan Kalish (22)- don't look quite ready... and they're both left handed hitting corner outfielders on a team with Ellsbury and Drew

Junichi Tazawa (23)- Out for the year with Tommy John surgery, but pitchers have been known to come back even stronger the following year.

Luis Exposito (23)- Having a decent year in Portland so far, looks like he might be able to help next year sometime.

Lars Anderson (22)- Absolutely destroyed AA pitching to start the year before a hasty promotion to AAA. Holding his own so far, with a homer last week.

But mostly, looking at the guys you think will end up being really good... like Casey Kelly, Jose Iglesias or even guys like Tony Rizzo, Yamaico Navarro, Felix Doubront, Will Middlebrooks... etc. They are mostly too young to be able to help next season (or maybe even the season after)

So which of these guys are we building a bridge to? It'd be easier to stomach all this losing, and talk of being sellers at the deadline if we were sitting on Freddy Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez, Kelly Shoppach, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis in the minors, but I just don't see where our saving grace is going to come from.

Edited by BosRedSox5, 09 May 2010 - 07:20 AM.

[Sportsbstn]

This Sox team was supposed to be built on pitching and defense. Well so far both have completely failed them as they rank a poor 19th in fielding and a horrible 26th in ERA. Even the hitting, which does not look terrible in the rankings, have been terrible against the top teams. Out of 12 games so far against Tampa, NY and Minnesota, the Sox have only score more than 3 runs, 4 times. Right now beating the Yankees tonight seems very improbable even with Lester on the mound. This week though brings Toronto and Detroit and they must make headway and come out better than .500 in those series. If their pitching and defense does not improve, they will be what they are, a .500 team getting hammered by the top teams.

[OttoC]

Winning in May? Has anyone looked at the upcoming schedule? Including tonight's finale against the Yankees, Boston's next 17 games come against opponents with a collective .649 winning percentage, and 11 of those games are on the road.

The following table shows the mathematically expected result for the next 17 games (pink) and the clubs' expected wins over 162 by three different methods (blue)--actual inning percentage times 162, Strength Of Schedule, and the Pythagorean Method with an exponent of 1.83--plus an average of those three.

There is a formula for the expected outcome of a team with winning percentage A playing a team with winning percentage B. I applied this using the current winning percentage for the Red Sox and each of their opponents for the next 17 games, multiplying the resulting expected winning percentage by games scheduled. This same concept was used to compile a Strength Of Schedule projection for each team in the majors. It is dynamic in that it recalculates as a team's winning percentage and those of its opponents fluctuate daily.

If the prediction holds and the Red Sox only win 6 of their next 17 games, then they would have a 21-27 record forty-eight games into the season and in order to finish with 95 wins, they would need to 74-40 (.649) to end the season. I have strong doubts that 95 wins would be enough to gain the wildcard spot.

Next 17 Games and Projected Wins

Team	Win%	Gms	HA	E{wins}	E{losses}	Win%162	SOS	Pyth183	Avg3
BOS	.484					78.4	75.4	72.9	75.6
NYY	.724	1	H	0.3	0.7	117.3	116.6	118.0	117.3
TOR	.563	3	H	1.3	1.7	91.1	86.7	89.2	89.0
DET	.567	3	A	1.3	1.7	91.8	94.8	84.1	90.2
NYY	.724	2	A	0.5	1.5	117.3	116.6	118.0	117.3
MIN	.645	2	H	0.7	1.3	104.5	107.3	103.3	105.1
PHI	.600	3	A	1.2	1.8	97.2	96.4	103.6	99.1
TBR	.733	3	A	0.8	2.2	118.8	118.6	124.7	120.7
Total	.649	17	6/11 H/A	5.9	11.1

formula

win%A - (win%A x win%B)
----------------------------------
(win%A + win%B)-(2 x win%A x win%B)

[Bleedred]

Then you're a chump if you simply give the seller whatever his asking price is. Any intelligent buyer negotiates down from that starting point.

No offense, but you're either an idiot or don't have any business experience. In a market where the Seller is holding an asset that is extraordinarily valuable, the most aggressive buyer that realizes the leverage is all on the other side has to meet the Seller's asking price if the Buyer wants that asset off the market. In 90% of the transactions I work on, that is not the case, however, there are those transactions (1 in 10) where the Buyer desperately wants the asset and is competing with multiple buyers. In that context, if my client wants the asset bad enough and wants it off the market, they make a deal with the Seller at asking price and they have a binding letter of intent executed within moments of striking that deal. If you want to "negotiate down," that's your prerogative, but you run the risk of losing the asset for what is normally negligible dollars, and then you are kicking yourself. IMO, this is what happened to the Red Sox with Texeira.

[Montana Fan]

And in the case of the Yankees, when healthy, they have an all star at every position in their lineup, and are going to simply beat even the best pitching staffs senseless all season. The Red Sox have a nice lineup, but they're going to get shut down by the best pitching staffs all season.

Plymp, I'm not saying the Yanks don't have an advantage but do you really see Gardner, Winn and Swisher as all stars?

Bob Burda, nice insightful post, best in the thread.

And to answer the question, no, today is not a must win game. It's 1 of 162 a quarter of the way into the season. I think it's a must win game if the Sox hope to keep Paul M's close attention for the rest of the year.

edit: misspelled Winn.

Edited by Montana Fan, 09 May 2010 - 09:19 AM.

[Paul M]

I guess the answer is it's already over which I guess is not surprising. Yet, this is so rare to be putting up the white flag not even 40 games into it that what has really changed in the last 6 weeks? A lot of people both on here and other places that generally feature cool, rational thought had Boston 95-100 wins on paper. Personally, I am still somewhat skeptical as far as quantifying defense and even more cautious about projecting it so that I had the Sox more in the 90-94 win range as opposed to the upper 90s. I think the balance shifted a little too far to the glove side though I know the economics are such that this was the better value decision and did not require longer term contracts. Clearly, the Sox are not fielding and pitching as well as we thought and I'd say almost every pitcher is below their expected performance which is pretty much all you need to know.

But, let's say they somehow manage to go 13-13 in the 26 games left vs. TB/NY. Ok, that gives them 31 wins. Then there are 105 games left and of those you have to figure you need 64 wins to get to 95. 6 weeks ago, would people say they could not win 64 of 105 (.605 winning % or 99-win caliber)--and none of the 105 are vs. TB or NY?

I was really half-serious with the original question but a 2-game swing is somewhat material and I think for Jon Lester it is a very, very big game, if not for the team.

[Vermonter At Large]

I think it's possible for them to win 95 games, but they have been playing more like the Pirates than a seasoned veteran playoff contender - finding ways to lose with errors, baserunning mistakes, untimely hitting, pitchers mowing down batters then giving up the 3-run HR, etc. I think that, more than the team composition, is what is most likely to cause this team to underachieve.

[yecul]

First off, this month is brutal and will make things very clear in short order.

Secondly, the problem I have envisioning the big turnaround is that we're not seeing a single area that is dragging them down nor a few key players. There is bad play across the board. Bonehead decision making, lackluster offense against non-horrible opponents, defensive crappiness abound, and one of the worst performing staffs. Oh, and some injuries on top of all that.

Sure they can turn it around. In some bizzaro parallel universe the Titanic managed to swerve past the iceberg. And, yes, that's an apt comparison. They are the Titanic. Will they be able to turn? All of them? In all areas? Soon? Let's hope so. But, as I said, if they do not then after the next few weeks they will decisively be out of it with those opponents.

[OCD SS]

Teixiera = spilled milk

Thank you. IIRC the offer Boras presented to JWH/ Theo after they flew down to Texas was well above $184M and more in the neighborhood of 10 years/ $225M; the general consensus on this board was that would be a gross overpayment.

If the Sox had a chance (assuming that the Yankees wouldn't have trumped that offer), it was to blow the Yankees out of the water before they even came into the picture, and that is not how this ownership group does business. They have also neglected to even engage the Yankees in a bidding war that might cause them to expend their resources above their bids so to possibly hamper them down the line. Bidding on CC would've been a great opportunity to do this, but this ownership group appears that it would rather not push the price of FA's up for everyone else.

Looking forward I think the Sox's best plan is to build for 2012 and beyond. If they're only going to spend when the Yankees let them then they should focus on building the farm and not expend prospect resources when the players they're targeting are so close to free agency.

[Cuzittt]

It would be the height of foolishness for me to come in here and declare that the Red Sox are going to go to the playoffs this season. Obviously, they have built themselves a nice little hole to climb out of. They are in a division with two really good teams. There is a good likelihood that the Red Sox will not make the playoffs this year.

But, we do ourselves a disservice to not look at history. On May 9th last season, The Yankees lost to the Orioles 12-7. It was their fifth loss in 6 games. They were 14-16. As we know, they won over 100 games and the World Series.

In 2001, the Oakland As were 13-20 on May 9th. On June 13th, they briefly made it over the .500 mark at 32-31... but quickly fell under .500 again. They finally broke .500 again on July 8th (44-43). They went on to win 102 games in the regular season.

The 1951 Giants were 13 Games Back of the Dodgers on August 11th. Do I have to remind you Who won the pennant?

Heck... we can look at our OWN history. The 1988 Red Sox were 10 Games Back on June 13th (28-30). They didn't even break .500 for another week (June 20th). They only made it to first place by themselves on September 5th. They, as we all know, won the division.

This is not to say that this current Red Sox squad will do what the above teams did. But it is silly to count them out at this point. They have 130 games to go... there is a lot of time yet left.

[And, no, the above list of 4 is simply the 4 that I quickly came up with. There are many, many more examples of teams starting slowly and cranking it up and making the playoffs.]

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

In that context, if my client wants the asset bad enough and wants it off the market, they make a deal with the Seller at asking price and they have a binding letter of intent executed within moments of striking that deal. If you want to "negotiate down," that's your prerogative, but you run the risk of losing the asset for what is normally negligible dollars, and then you are kicking yourself. IMO, this is what happened to the Red Sox with Texeira.

First of all, no one is questioning that a buyer bids enough, he can get an asset - the only question here is how much that offer would have been. Reportedly, Boras told Henry that he had offers of 8 yrs/$200M. It's pretty clear to me that in order to walk out with Teixeira off the market when they met in 2008, Boston would have to bid north of $200M.

In other words, if you really think that Theo and JWH would have offered $180M but turned down the chance to lock Teixeira up for $184M, I just have to strongly disagree.

Oh, and one other thing - I'm fairly certain there has never been a player in MLB history that has executed a binding letter of intent. Until he signs on the dotted line, Teixeira was on the market, and he had lots of ways to give himself more time to negotiate.

Let me put it this way. Let's say you're Teixeira and you've always wanted to play in NY and your wife wants to be in NY and you're sitting down talking to an owner of a ballclub worth in the upper nine figures and who runs a hedge fund. That owner says to you, "Mr. Teixeira, we really want you to be a Red Sox. What will it take?"

You really think $184M is going to do it? You start w/ $184M and then add a couple of extensions and then add suites and cars and hotels and flights - and eventually, you get to A-Rod and Manny territory.

That's what happens when price is no object.

[yecul]

It would be the height of foolishness for me to come in here and declare that the Red Sox are going to go to the playoffs this season. Obviously, they have built themselves a nice little hole to climb out of. They are in a division with two really good teams. There is a good likelihood that the Red Sox will not make the playoffs this year.

But, we do ourselves a disservice to not look at history. On May 9th last season, The Yankees lost to the Orioles 12-7. It was their fifth loss in 6 games. They were 14-16. As we know, they won over 100 games and the World Series.

In 2001, the Oakland As were 13-20 on May 9th. On June 13th, they briefly made it over the .500 mark at 32-31... but quickly fell under .500 again. They finally broke .500 again on July 8th (44-43). They went on to win 102 games in the regular season.

The 1951 Giants were 13 Games Back of the Dodgers on August 11th. Do I have to remind you Who won the pennant?

Heck... we can look at our OWN history. The 1988 Red Sox were 10 Games Back on June 13th (28-30). They didn't even break .500 for another week (June 20th). They only made it to first place by themselves on September 5th. They, as we all know, won the division.

This is not to say that this current Red Sox squad will do what the above teams did. But it is silly to count them out at this point. They have 130 games to go... there is a lot of time yet left.

[And, no, the above list of 4 is simply the 4 that I quickly came up with. There are many, many more examples of teams starting slowly and cranking it up and making the playoffs.]

What are you trying to accomplish with this post? That anything is possible? I think that's been said a number of times. That this is your viewpoint -- that they will win 95+ on their way to the playoffs? If so, can you explain how and why you think that will take place?

[geoduck no quahog]

It would be the height of foolishness for me to come in here and declare that the Red Sox are going to go to the playoffs this season. Obviously, they have built themselves a nice little hole to climb out of. They are in a division with two really good teams. There is a good likelihood that the Red Sox will not make the playoffs this year.

But, we do ourselves a disservice to not look at history. On May 9th last season, The Yankees lost to the Orioles 12-7. It was their fifth loss in 6 games. They were 14-16. As we know, they won over 100 games and the World Series.

In 2001, the Oakland As were 13-20 on May 9th. On June 13th, they briefly made it over the .500 mark at 32-31... but quickly fell under .500 again. They finally broke .500 again on July 8th (44-43). They went on to win 102 games in the regular season.

The 1951 Giants were 13 Games Back of the Dodgers on August 11th. Do I have to remind you Who won the pennant?

Heck... we can look at our OWN history. The 1988 Red Sox were 10 Games Back on June 13th (28-30). They didn't even break .500 for another week (June 20th). They only made it to first place by themselves on September 5th. They, as we all know, won the division.

This is not to say that this current Red Sox squad will do what the above teams did. But it is silly to count them out at this point. They have 130 games to go... there is a lot of time yet left.

[And, no, the above list of 4 is simply the 4 that I quickly came up with. There are many, many more examples of teams starting slowly and cranking it up and making the playoffs.]

I see greater analogy to the 2009 Rays, who, after 30 games were 14-16 and never recovered - finishing with 84 wins. Even more telling: after 30 games the Rays were 4-3 versus the Sox and 3-2 versus the Yankees (they ended up 16-20 against the two teams). Their April, at 9-14 was, however, uglier than what we're seeing.

[SoxFanSince57]

Here is what I think, jon abbey has been logged on to this thread for 24 hours straight and is happier than a pig in shit.