21 replies to this topic

[mabrowndog]

* GET YOUR WEAPONS READY - Have you your pistols? Have you your sharp-edged axes? No, this ain't no Levi's commercial, but its still worthy of Whitman's verse. The enemy encroaches upon our borders for the second time this season, having taken 2 of 3 from Boston in the season's opening series at Fenway. The Sox have a huge opportunity to gain back some ground against a team that's still playing great baseball, but is showing some chinks in its armor. Their center fielder is on the DL, their 5th starter is kerosene incarnate, and nagging injuries are cropping up with key players, including 3 of the 4 senior citizens on this week's Sports Illustrated cover. They're only one-sixth of the way through their season, and Yankee fans have every right to be nervous about this team's ability to stay healthy and productive into October.

* SCHEDULE & WEATHER – A threat of showers for Saturday afternoon, and a tad chilly on Sunday night. Looks like we might see stiff winds straight out to right field for the finale, similar to the ones that carried Martinez's and Napoli's homers over the RF pens last night. There's also a chance of thunderstorms tonight, but they're not expected to hit the area until after midnight.



As usual, the parasites at FOX and ESPN monopolize the weekend coverage of this rivarly, force feeding us back-to-back heapin' helpin's of McCarver and Morgan – the baseball broadcasting equivalents of broccoli and brussels sprouts.

* TEAM RECORDS – In contrast to the Sox' embarrassing collective bend-over in Baltimore last weekend, the Yankees made the Orioles their bitches in a 3-game sweep. They arrive at Fenway winners of 4 straight and 7 of their last 8. Meanwhile the Sox did the exact same thing to the Angels, a team that took 3 of 4 from the Yankees in Anaheim last week. Yesterday's off-day allowed the Yankees to skip their #5 starter.

NYY - 19-8 (.704), 2nd in AL East (1.0 game behind TB), 2nd best record in AL
BOS - 15-14 (.517), 4th in AL East (6.5 games behind TB), 6th best record in AL (tied w. OAK & TEX)

NYY - Scoring 151-96, Pythag W-L: 19-8
BOS - Scoring 150-150, Pythag W-L: 15-15

It's fair to say the Yankees have yet to be truly tested. The average current W-L record of the teams they've played so far is 13.1-16.0, and only 3 of their 27 games have been against teams with a record better than 15-14. Meanwhile the Sox' average oppositional W-L is 14.6-14.3 with 13 of 29 games against teams better than 15-14.

* PITCHING MATCHUPS – The bummer here is that the Sox miss Javier Vazquez, who's been the David Ortiz of AL starting pitchers this year. The rest of the rotation has been lights out. Pettitte (14.9), Burnett (14.0), Sabathia (12.2) and Hughes (11.3) rank 4th, 5th, 8th and 12th in VORP among AL starting pitchers. They're 15-1 with a 2.14 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a .216/.288/.300/.588 opponents' batting line. They've combined for a .259 BABIP, and regardless of what extent that's due to good defense (doubtful) or poor quality of contact (likely), I doubt luck has been an overwhelming factor. Not even the friggin' Yankees can be that lucky in 22 starts.



Credit where credit is due: Where the Yankees appear to have flubbed their management of Joba Chamberlain's development, they've hit it out of the park with Hughes. It started in mid-2006, when he became less reliant on his slider and began developing his 1-7 curve, which he threw in the low 80s. His fastball sat in the 91-95 range, but he struggled to control his changeup, which posed a significant hurdle to his advancement the next two years.

Two big things happened in 2008 for Hughes: First, he developed a cutter (the archived page seems to be redirecting mid-read, so I'll spoiler the copied text):

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[mabrowndog]

Had to fix some broken link formatting. Should be all set now.

[mabrowndog]

Pitcher vs Hitter for game one:

[joyofsox]

Excellent work, 'dog!

[Trlicek's Whip]

These are awesome, awesome primers. Thank you for taking the time to post them.

[Pandemonium67]

Well, except that broccoli and brussel sprouts are good for you...

[EastCoasterOutWest]

Well, except that broccoli and brussel sprouts are good for you...

But the gas.

Also, these write-ups are stellar.

[IpswichSox]

Robinson Cano has a nearly 1.100 OPS against Beckett in 47 ABs? I'd like to suggest a first-pitch four-seamer to the rib cage.

(Great work on all this, Dog.)

[Max Power]

Robinson Cano has a nearly 1.100 OPS against Beckett in 47 ABs? I'd like to suggest a first-pitch four-seamer to the rib cage.

I'd suggest one every time up. That would keep his OPS down to 1.000.

[JMDurron]

Well, except that broccoli and brussel sprouts are good for you...

Instead of vitamins, ESPN and FOX inject money into our team's system (and every other team's, of course). It's still a poor-tasting experience, but a necessary one, so I think the comparison holds up.

[Wingack]

Robinson Cano has a nearly 1.100 OPS against Beckett in 47 ABs? I'd like to suggest a first-pitch four-seamer to the rib cage.

(Great work on all this, Dog.)

Well, you got one to the knee.

[kartvelo]

I couldn't see the game - were the HBP suspicious? He hit two guys who hadn't even gotten on base all night.

[mabrowndog]

I couldn't see the game - were the HBP suspicious? He hit two guys who hadn't even gotten on base all night.

Not at all. On Cano's, Tek was set up on the left edge of the plate, and Beckett threw it a good 18 inches left of that. Beckett had completely lost all command of his crap.

Edited by mabrowndog, 09 May 2010 - 07:33 AM.

[mabrowndog]

Did anyone else noticed Buchholz completely screwed up his backup assignment on the RBI single to center that led to Victor blocking the plate? He was just randomly roaming around the area in front of the mound and finally scampered to a point outside the LHH batter's box. Had McDonald's throw to the plate been off the mark, Clay was in no position whatsoever to back up the play.

The fundamental lapses of this team are growing more and more disconcerting with each week that passes.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I know it's only 32 games into the season, yadda yadda yadda, but the gap between those teams- which was so narrow a few years ago, even in the Sox favor, seems to have really widened. Really really discouraging to see the Yankees beat the piss out of the Sox on our turf.

[ShaneTrot]

I know it's only 32 games into the season, yadda yadda yadda, but the gap between those teams- which was so narrow a few years ago, even in the Sox favor, seems to have really widened. Really really discouraging to see the Yankees beat the piss out of the Sox on our turf.

The MFY are not this better than the Royals. Let's face it. The pitching is really killing the team. They have allowed more runs than any team in the AL. TB has allowed 90 runs in 30 games, the MFY have allowed 102 in 29, the Sox have allowed 174 in 31 games. Its amazing how small this rotation has come up.

[paulftodd]

Mistakes are always noticed more when you lose.

The MFY are not this better than the Royals. Let's face it. The pitching is really killing the team. They have allowed more runs than any team in the AL. TB has allowed 90 runs in 30 games, the MFY have allowed 102 in 29, the Sox have allowed 174 in 31 games. Its amazing how small this rotation has come up.

Last year we were 19-12 and gave up 160 runs (only 14 runs less). Of course, we scored 181 runs (25 runs more). and played the MFY when they were playing like us this year last year At this point last year we were 5-0 against the MFY and 4-0 against the Orioles (total 9-0). This year we are 3-9 against these teams. A 5-1 record against the Orioles instead of 2-4 would give us a 18-13 record. The MFY were 15-16 at this point last year and went on to win 103 games. The road to 162 games can take many different paths.

Anyways, Lackey, Lester and Beckett all have a history of bad starts. It should turn around.

Edited by paulftodd, 08 May 2010 - 10:30 PM.

[Frisbetarian]

Did anyone else noticed Buchholz completely screwed up his backup assignment on the RBI single to center that led to Victor blocking the plate? He was just randomly roaming around the area in front of the mound and finally scampered to a point outside the LHH batter's box. Had McDonald's throw to the plate been off the mark, Clay was in no position whatsoever to back up the play.

The fundamental lapses of this team are growing more and more disconcerting with each week that passes.

I saw that, and also saw that JD Drew, on the Gardner bunt down the 3rd base line in the 1st inning, was barely jogging over toward the line to back up the play when the throw from Martinez sailed past 1st. Had Pedroia not made a great play backing up that throw, Drew was in no position to back it up and the runners would have been able to run for a while.

Also, Martinez inexplicably caught the relay throw from Youkilis on the Swisher single that scored ARod in the 7th in front of the plate and tried to tag ARod going by instead of blocking the plate.

It would take 5000 words to detail all the stupid from Adrian Beltre this season.

[rembrat]

Actually, now that you mention it, Fris, I'd like to hear your thoughts on Adrian Beltre's defense from a visual/scouting standpoint. I noted in a GT how he seems to be one of these guys that relies on their natural talent more than good fundamentals and technique when fielding a ball. For example, there is this play that he is constantly doing that annoys the hell out of me. A sharply hit groundball to his glove handside, instead of attempting to position his body in front of the ball, he turns his body so he is facing 2B, and while he is in a great position to quickly throw to 2B, he is in a horrible position to guard against the ball taking a ball hop. It's my recollection that he has twice messed this play up, the most recent coming this weekend off of Rodriguez' bat.

I know I have seen Mike Lowell do this same thing, failing to square up a groundball but he is less mobile than Beltre so he probably gets a pass on that.

Edited by rembrat, 09 May 2010 - 09:45 AM.

[Frisbetarian]

Actually, now that you mention it, Fris, I'd like to hear your thoughts on Adrian Beltre's defense from a visual/scouting standpoint. I noted in a GT how he seems to be one of these guys that relies on their natural talent more than good fundamentals and technique when fielding a ball. For example, there is this play that he is constantly doing that annoys the hell out of me. A sharply hit groundball to his glove handside, instead of attempting to position his body in front of the ball, he turns his body so he is facing 2B, and while he is in a great position to quickly throw to 2B, he is in a horrible position to guard against the ball taking a ball hop. It's my recollection that he has twice messed this play up, the most recent coming this weekend off of Rodriguez' bat.

I know I have seen Mike Lowell do this same thing, failing to square up a groundball but he is less mobile than Beltre so he probably gets a pass on that.

I think your assessment is good. Beltre is an unorthodox fielder who eschews fundamentals and does things like take balls off to the side and throw flat footed. When it works, and it has for him throughout his career until this season because he has a great first step, which with his decent speed gives him plus range at third especially to his left, an unbelievable arm, and quick (although not exceptionally soft) hands, he looks great.

This year, however, his lack of technique has not worked and his athletic gifts have not been able to save him. He has 7 errors and could (some would say should) have 3 more. He has also missed balls in the hole between short and third that it appeared he had plays on (the one yesterday was ridiculous), has thrown to the wrong base at least twice, and neglected to cover third once. While he has made a few nice plays, overall he has been a disaster, and was, in my opinion, Theo's target when he made his unintelligent baseball comment (remember, Beltre also forgot the number of outs running the bases and was thrown out at third to end an inning on a "steal" attempt).

The scariest thing about this is that I have begun wondering just how much better Mike Lowell's hip is this season. I know how bad Lowell's defense was last year, and I see how slow he is on the basepaths, but Beltre has been so bad defensively that I'm starting to wonder how much longer the team can leave him out there. He is killing them. I hope he turns things around, and his history says he will, but there has been nothing that tells me that is coming.

There are a few players I can think of who had incredible hand/eye coordination and were amazing athletes, and that allowed them to get away with bad fundamentals or a lack of knowledge of the strike zone for a while, but never for their entire career. Nomar comes to mind immediately, as both offensively and defensively he was unorthodox, swinging at first pitches and pitches out of the strike zone, fielding almost every ground ball hit to him backhanded, even balls right at him, throwing balls sidearm on the run even when he had time to set, etc. Despite this, he had phenomenal success early in his career, but when he lost a little of the hand/eye, or slowed down just a touch, he fell off a cliff. Jim Rice offensively is another player in that same mold. I hope this is not the case for Beltre, but boy am I happy the guy is on a one year deal.

[paulftodd]

The scariest thing about this is that I have begun wondering just how much better Mike Lowell's hip is this season.......

I hope this is not the case for Beltre, but boy am I happy the guy is on a one year deal.

Way back when the Beltre talks first started up I expressed the hope that Lowell be given a chance to play 3B in hope this might be the case. The downside might have been giving Tek more time catching to rest Lowell, which would have been a plus in April, with V-Mart at 1B and Youk at 3B (not so good for Youk). It would have avoided the situation we have with an unhappy Papi and Lowell making 24.5 million at DH while wondering WTF the Red Sox were thinking with Beltre. Of course, who would have known that Lowell would still be with the team after they signed Beltre.

To be honest, I never seriously questioned Beltres defense or baseball IQ and accepted he was what they said he was, at least defensively. Fenways IF plays tough and perhaps is not as well suited to his style of defense as in other parks where the balls are less prone to bad hops and snakelike movements. Offensively I doubted he would get much of a power boost at fenway since his hit charts showed his power is to CF and CF-RF.

I believe he has a 5 million dollar option which increases to 10 million if he gets enough PA ( 605 IIRC).

It may still work out, the season is young, and I imagine Beltre will adjust as all good athletes do. It must be tough for him going from Seattle to the Boston pressure cooker with snakes in the grass, and not every player has what it takes to play in Boston. They may try harder, but sometimes that has the opposite effect. Offensively he was been fine though, at least within my limited expectations.

Edited by paulftodd, 09 May 2010 - 06:40 PM.

[mabrowndog]

I believe he has a 5 million dollar option which increases to 10 million if he gets enough PA ( 605 IIRC).

Close. It kicks in at 640 PA. He also triggers a $1M buyout once he reaches 575 PA.

The most important factor is the option is Beltre's to exercise, not the club's.

Edited by mabrowndog, 09 May 2010 - 10:06 PM.