34 replies to this topic

[phragle]

Jnai bought up something interesting in the game thread today. Lester threw a lot of change-ups, more than I ever recall seeing. He also didn't throw many cutters, or anything I can conclusively call a sinker. If they were sinkers, they didn't have typical movement of one.

Lester's first start:

Link to the game

Much like a traditional chart for Lester throwing his fastball, curve, sinker, and cutter and a few change-ups

His second:

Link to the game

This doesn't really look like a Jon Lester chart. The fastball and curve are there, but the cutter is all over the place, he may have not even thrown a sinker, and he threw 12 change-ups. With out looking at every start he has ever thrown I'm pretty sure he has never thrown 12 change-ups.

[Sprowl]

In prior years Lester has tried to keep the changeup outside off the plate to right-handed batters. Today he let several of them end up in the strike zone, whether by design or poor command, I don't know. The changeup was working pretty well, although Lester did give up a single in the 5th inning. It was a key part of Lester's approach against Longoria, one of the few matchups where Lester seemed in control.

Lester's big problem was a failure to command his fastball, which ended up clustered in a sweet spot in the strike zone: this is no donut hole. When Lester is going well, he locates the fastball on the edges of the plate, with the cutter usually ending up down and in to RHB and the curve in the dirt to all batters. Like so many of the Red Sox starters early in the season, he lost velocity inning by inning. Stamina and fastball command seem to elude Lester in April.

[Jnai]

As Sprowl pointed out in the Gamethread, the lack of the two-seam fastball may have been a conscious decision because of the poor field conditions (and worries about inducing ground balls). It could also have been scouting information. He might also have expressed difficulty throwing it in the slick conditions. They might also have decided that he should try to get back to basics after a few tough outings and leave the pitch aside, to see if that helped his command of his 4-seamer.

We can handwave a dozen possible answers, but it would be nice to know from the kid himself.

Whatever it was, it was sure odd to see a gaping hole in his repertoire. It would be great to know what the hell happened.

Edited by Jnai, 18 April 2010 - 07:38 PM.

[OrlandoMerced]

You guys weren't the only ones curious:

http://soxblog.projo...lester-had.html

The question was posed to Red Sox pitching coach pretty vaguely:
Was Lester consciously throwing more changeups than usual on Sunday?

"I thought his pitch mix overall was very good, given what we know of this (Tampa Bay) team, given what our game plan was coming into this series. There were more changeups today than cutters. Six of his seven hits came off hard stuff -- fastball-cutter combination. Only the one base hit, (Ben) Zobrist to left, was off a changeup. Everything else was off velocity-oriented-type pitches.

In other words, Lester wanted to throw changeups because Tampa Bay is such a good fastball-hitting team. (According to FanGraphs.com data, the Rays created more runs off fastballs last season than all but four teams in the major leagues.)

[Sprowl]

Jon Lester's first near-quality start of 2010 looked the part: velocity sustained throughout, approaching 96 in the first and sixth innings; five swinging strikes on the cutter down and in to RHB; lots of fastballs and changeups thrown for strikes. Throwing the changeup for strikes and to lefties like Markakis -- instead of a ball outside to RHB to monkey with their timing -- seems to be an ongoing feature of Lester's 2010 approach. In this game, he threw a lot of sinkers, mostly for strikes, and plenty of cutters, including some for strikes as well as the usual ones low and inside. Lester also overcame his poor fastball command from prior starts, throwing very few high pitches. There were plenty of belt-high pitches, including 4 for base hits, and the strike zone was stingy: lots of Lester's balls looked like good pitches at the knees. Maybe it was Lester's improved command and consistent velocity, or maybe it was the obligingly inept Orioles, but Lester looked better in just about every aspect of his performance than he has since his first inning against the Yankees.

[Sprowl]

After his first near-quality start, Lester turned in something beyond quality: a dominant 1-hitter with 11 strikeouts. He did it with raw stuff, not control. Lester didn't stay on the edges, although a few batters took him to a full count. Instead, he challenged hitters and they lost, over and over again. The center of the strike zone is crowded with red and yellow dots for called and swinging strikes. Every pitch was working: Lester used both the cutter and the curve as backdoor pitches as well as in on the ankles -- and he also threw them right down the pipe; the changeup started out with three swinging strikes; and the fastball maintained 95 velocity for six innings (93 in the seventh).

Baseball Reference lists Lester at 6'4", 240 lbs. Formidabull.

[fuzzy_one]

After his first near-quality start, Lester turned in something beyond quality: a dominant 1-hitter with 11 strikeouts. He did it with raw stuff, not control. Lester didn't stay on the edges, although a few batters took him to a full count. Instead, he challenged hitters and they lost, over and over again. The center of the strike zone is crowded with red and yellow dots for called and swinging strikes. Every pitch was working: Lester used both the cutter and the curve as backdoor pitches as well as in on the ankles -- and he also threw them right down the pipe; the changeup started out with three swinging strikes; and the fastball maintained 95 velocity for six innings (93 in the seventh).

Baseball Reference lists Lester at 6'4", 240 lbs. Formidabull.

Given what you and phragle have said upthread, does it seem likely that Lester will actually have stretches of being *more* dominant than he was against the Jays? Now that he's throwing his best raw stuff, refining location with repetition doesn't seem improbable. <Bob Bainborough>This is just damned exciting!</bainborough>

[BucketOBalls]

After his first near-quality start, Lester turned in something beyond quality: a dominant 1-hitter with 11 strikeouts. He did it with raw stuff, not control. Lester didn't stay on the edges, although a few batters took him to a full count. Instead, he challenged hitters and they lost, over and over again. The center of the strike zone is crowded with red and yellow dots for called and swinging strikes. Every pitch was working: Lester used both the cutter and the curve as backdoor pitches as well as in on the ankles -- and he also threw them right down the pipe; the changeup started out with three swinging strikes; and the fastball maintained 95 velocity for six innings (93 in the seventh).

Baseball Reference lists Lester at 6'4", 240 lbs. Formidabull.

I'm a little worried that he wouldn't be able to get away with that vs a better lineup. Anyone remember his pattern last year? I.e. did he get his stuff back and then his control?

FTR the park Lester has the most starts in(after Fenway) is Toronto(7), and he's been very good there, holding the BJ's to a .578 OPS. It's his best park in the division.

[koufax32]

Lester survived April. Now it's on to May. Over the course of his career he's been markedly better in May His SO/BB goes from 1.81 to 2.52. BA goes down from .269 to .256. The stats get even better as he moves into June. The reasons could be discussed ad nauseum. Hopefuly his last effort is a harbinger of his shift into his next gear.

Lester monthly splits

[Jnai]

Another great performance from Lester, hopefully swinging the "Pitching" part of our "Pitching and Defense" strategy back into full gear.

But, another game where he stayed away from the two-seam fastball and threw a lot of changeups.

It's easiest to differentiate the two pitches on this plot, which shows the Spin Axis of the ball by pitch speed:


If you were wondering, Lester's changeup is primarily a weapon against RHH (this plot shown in the more conventional H-Mov x Speed Style):

Only one of those was thrown with a LHH at the plate. Rs and Ls here code batter handedness.

A final note: one of Lester's problems early in the year was difficulty sustaining velocity over the course of a start. He would seem to "tail off" in the fifth or sixth inning, and with it would go his control (or vice versa, impossible to know).


But, through his 120 pitches last night, he was able to sustain strength and keep firing heat as the game wore on. A good sign.


The changeup/two-seam thing is really baffling, though. I can understand if it's an approach that they're consciously deciding on, and maybe it's the next phase of his development. But whereas last season (and earlier) he threw only the very rare changeup, it seems to have become a consistent part of his arsenal this year.

Edited by Jnai, 05 May 2010 - 01:24 AM.

[mabrowndog]

Heading into yesterday, the Sox leader in VORP among pitchers was...

Manny Delcarmen at 5.7. Seriously. Lester was 5th at 3.0, behind Bard (4.6), Buchholz (4.0) and Papelbon (3.9).

After last night's game, Lester has vaulted all of them at 6.9, which now ranks 23rd in the AL.

Edited by mabrowndog, 05 May 2010 - 10:58 AM.

[Bdanahy14]

Another great performance last night - his cutter was fantastic. I was looking at the Swisher at-bat and Nick's ability to take the 2-2 cutter just off the plate changed the whole at bat. The 6th pitch, with a 3-2 count, Lester threw his 3rd fastball, this time leaving to much over the plate and Swisher just killed it.

When Arod got up a couple of batters later... there wasn't really a mistake made. Three fastballs, first one down and inside for ball 1, second one up and in for ball two and third one high over the strike zone for a high fly ball home run. Tough ball to hit... did anyone notice which way the wind was blowing last night? Was windy as hell in NY.

Great to see Jon really settling into a groove.

[luckysox]

Another great performance last night - his cutter was fantastic. I was looking at the Swisher at-bat and Nick's ability to take the 2-2 cutter just off the plate changed the whole at bat. The 6th pitch, with a 3-2 count, Lester threw his 3rd fastball, this time leaving to much over the plate and Swisher just killed it.

When Arod got up a couple of batters later... there wasn't really a mistake made. Three fastballs, first one down and inside for ball 1, second one up and in for ball two and third one high over the strike zone for a high fly ball home run. Tough ball to hit... did anyone notice which way the wind was blowing last night? Was windy as hell in NY.

Great to see Jon really settling into a groove.

Out to right, I believe. But that ball is caught for an out in lots of other stadiums. Left field giveth, and she taketh away.

[redsox11507]

Lester's got three good starts in a row to make up for his not so hot April.



More heat last night with the cutter and fastball and fewer sinkers, change ups, and curves last night than the previous outing. The lack of change ups was probably due to the Yankees being loaded with switch hitters and Lester only seeing four true right handed hitters. Six of his twenty eight cutters were whiffed at and twenty of his sixty three strikes were stared at, in a pretty small zone to boot.





You also see his average speed tail off a bit last night, but he was worked pretty hard his last time out.

[Eric Van]

Lester threw 20 consecutive first-pitch strikes last night, starting with the Mauer GDP that ended the 4th and ending when he started Cuddyer off 2-0 with 2 outs in the 9th. Overall on the night, he was 28 out of 32.

[donutogre]

Was just reading back over this thread and noticed how it started with a discussion about Lester moving away from the sinker and using more changeups...

Looks like that still holds true but it clearly isn't hampering his effectiveness. PitchFX only classified 6 of his pitches as sinkers, compared to 14 changeups and 28 cutters.

[Jnai]

Was just reading back over this thread and noticed how it started with a discussion about Lester moving away from the sinker and using more changeups...

Looks like that still holds true but it clearly isn't hampering his effectiveness. PitchFX only classified 6 of his pitches as sinkers, compared to 14 changeups and 28 cutters.

Yup. Another game where the cluster of changeups is huge compared to the cluster of sinkers.

[Sprowl]

Yup. Another game where the cluster of changeups is huge compared to the cluster of sinkers.

Equally striking is how effective those changeups were: 4 swinging strikes and 2 balls in play for outs. Lester also uses the changeup for more purposes than he used to: 4 in the strike zone and 4 more below the knees, in addition to 4 outside. He used to throw the changeup only to the last location. What hasn't changed is that all the changeups are thrown to the right=opposite-handed batter.

[donutogre]

Sprowl/Jnai/others more knowledgeable than I,

I've often heard about pitchers (Lester in particular) who only throw changeups to the opposite handed batter. What about the changeup makes it an "out" pitch against opposite handed batters but causes him to stay away from it with same-handed batters?

[Alternate34]

Sprowl/Jnai/others more knowledgeable than I,

I've often heard about pitchers (Lester in particular) who only throw changeups to the opposite handed batter. What about the changeup makes it an "out" pitch against opposite handed batters but causes him to stay away from it with same-handed batters?

The reason I can think of is that the changeup breaks away from opposite handed batters. This is one of the reasons why you throw your curveball/slider to same handed batters.

Now, this wouldn't apply to some straight changes as those have no horizontal movement.

Edited by Alternate34, 21 May 2010 - 02:18 PM.

[Sprowl]

Sprowl/Jnai/others more knowledgeable than I,

I've often heard about pitchers (Lester in particular) who only throw changeups to the opposite handed batter. What about the changeup makes it an "out" pitch against opposite handed batters but causes him to stay away from it with same-handed batters?

I don't know why it works so often for so many pitchers, but the conventional wisdom is that a pitcher should throw the sinker to the same-handed batter (it works beautifully for Lowe and Masterson) and the changeup to the opposite-handed batter (works for just about every pitcher with an above-average changeup). Lester follows this division of labor quite reliably -- his sinker and changeup have almost exactly the same movement, and differ only in velocity and location. Why a change-of-pace would work for batters who see the ball better, and a hard sinker better for batters who don't see the ball as well, still puzzle me.

Against lefties, Lester has started to throw the cutter more often. He used to use it primarily down and in against RHB; now he uses it quite often as a brushback (or front-door) cutter to LHB. His command of the cutter continues to improve.

The reason I can think of is that the changeup breaks away from opposite handed batters. This is one of the reasons why you throw your curveball/slider to same handed batters.

Now, this wouldn't apply to some straight changes as those have no horizontal movement.

That rule of thumb seems to work well for Buchholz, whose changeup was more effective against the same-handed batter (at least until this year -- I haven't seen a recent breakdown of pitch types by batter stance for the 2010 season). Against the Twins, with their many LHB and switch-hitters, Buchholz threw everything to everybody -- but especially sliders to the LHB.

[Alternate34]

I don't know why it works so often for so many pitchers, but the conventional wisdom is that a pitcher should throw the sinker to the same-handed batter (it works beautifully for Lowe and Masterson) and the changeup to the opposite-handed batter (works for just about every pitcher with an above-average changeup). Lester follows this division of labor quite reliably -- his sinker and changeup have almost exactly the same movement, and differ only in velocity and location. Why a change-of-pace would work for batters who see the ball better, and a hard sinker better for batters who don't see the ball as well, still puzzle me.

Against lefties, Lester has started to throw the cutter more often. He used to use it primarily down and in against RHB; now he uses it quite often as a brushback (or front-door) cutter to LHB. His command of the cutter continues to improve.

Well, it seems to fit in generally that with higher velocity pitches, you want the pitch breaking in toward the batter. A faster pitch breaking into a batter makes it seem even harder to catch up to because they are trying to make contact with the ball a little earlier to pull the pitch. With a slower pitch the batter isn't trying to catch up to the ball, so the breaking in on the hands just isn't as daunting.

Thinking about it in terms of vision, from what I gather, the illusion of pitch movement is far more daunting than actual pitch movement. A faster pitch breaking in seems to leap into you and can't be picked up as well because two things are creating the illusion, the speed of the pitch and its motion. A slower breaking pitch loses the leap from velocity, meaning the illusion is greatly reduced. I don't know if this is true at all, this is more speculation.

[Jnai]

The reason I can think of is that the changeup breaks away from opposite handed batters. This is one of the reasons why you throw your curveball/slider to same handed batters.

Right. And, it applies to almost every pitcher, not just Lester. There was an article by John Walsh in THT's annual a few years back (and an article on my site a few years ago) that looked at which pitches cause the "platoon" split, which is essentially what we're talking about here (efficacy of different pitches depending on batter/hitter handedness).

Fastball/sliders tend to be the biggest culprits. It's why, for example, that most LOOGY's (or in the case of someone like Chad Bradford, a "ROOGY") tend to be almost exclusively fastball/slider pitchers with excessive platoon splits. And why Masterson was "death on RHH" but couldn't get a lefty out to save his life. Not only do you risk throwing an inside breaking pitch right into a LHH's wheelhouse, but the pitches actually look discernibly different in terms of trajectory when viewed from the RHH and LHH batter's box. From the LHH's batter's box, a LOOGY's fastball and slider are very hard to distinguish; from the RHH's batter's box, the extra few feet and different perspective gives the slider a much more obvious break.

Of course, Lester's arsenal against RHH is bolstered by the strong cutter that he can bury down and in against them.

It's also why Oki is probably not a good option as a LOOGY. His over-the-top delivery creates much less lateral action on his pitches. He still has a traditional platoon split, but I'm just not sure his stuff lends itself very well to that role.


Edit: Can see I was beaten to the punch by just about everyone. =)

Edited by Jnai, 21 May 2010 - 02:29 PM.

[donutogre]

Thanks all. Thinking about the slider being thrown by a lefty, I can imagine Drew flailing at them as they dive down and away from him and it seems very evident why that is effective.

I guess when I think about it, a slider going in on a lefty batter (being thrown by a righty) could be an absolute meatball if it doesn't break far inside on the hands, but it seems to me if you bury a slider in on the hands it would be hard to do something with. I guess that's what the cutter is for though - higher velocity makes it harder to mash?

It seems to me like a slider thrown by a righty to a lefty could look like a fat pitch up the middle until it dives in on the hands, which would sound like a good pitch, but I'll yield to the data since I don't know what I'm talking about

EDIT: Jnai, I don't suppose you have a link to that article on your site? Sounds interesting.

Edited by donutogre, 21 May 2010 - 02:39 PM.

[Alternate34]

I don't know why it works so often for so many pitchers, but the conventional wisdom is that a pitcher should throw the sinker to the same-handed batter (it works beautifully for Lowe and Masterson) and the changeup to the opposite-handed batter (works for just about every pitcher with an above-average changeup). Lester follows this division of labor quite reliably -- his sinker and changeup have almost exactly the same movement, and differ only in velocity and location. Why a change-of-pace would work for batters who see the ball better, and a hard sinker better for batters who don't see the ball as well, still puzzle me.

Against lefties, Lester has started to throw the cutter more often. He used to use it primarily down and in against RHB; now he uses it quite often as a brushback (or front-door) cutter to LHB. His command of the cutter continues to improve.


That rule of thumb seems to work well for Buchholz, whose changeup was more effective against the same-handed batter (at least until this year -- I haven't seen a recent breakdown of pitch types by batter stance for the 2010 season). Against the Twins, with their many LHB and switch-hitters, Buchholz threw everything to everybody -- but especially sliders to the LHB.

The rule of thumb does break down. It seems like something more of a rule of thumb that is used that is often untrue. I can come up with a lot of pitchers who use pitches that use breaking pitches that break in toward the batter. Randy Johnson would throw his slider to righties all of the time as I recall and some changeup guys would throw their changeups to whoever they wanted. The rule of thumb also ignores backdoor breaking balls on the outside of the plate as well.

Edited by Alternate34, 21 May 2010 - 02:40 PM.

[Jnai]

EDIT: Jnai, I don't suppose you have a link to that article on your site? Sounds interesting.

When I transitioned my site over to the new layout I think it got eaten. I will have to dig to find it, but will post it here when I do.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Against lefties, Lester has started to throw the cutter more often. He used to use it primarily down and in against RHB; now he uses it quite often as a brushback (or front-door) cutter to LHB. His command of the cutter continues to improve.

You could really see this last night when he caught Mauer and Morneau looking in succession on front-door cutters, both thrown to the same spot (inside edge, thigh-high). Throwing that pitch in that location to those hitters suggests a pretty high degree of confidence in it.

[Spacemans Bong]

The rule of thumb does break down. It seems like something more of a rule of thumb that is used that is often untrue. I can come up with a lot of pitchers who use pitches that use breaking pitches that break in toward the batter. Randy Johnson would throw his slider to righties all of the time as I recall and some changeup guys would throw their changeups to whoever they wanted. The rule of thumb also ignores backdoor breaking balls on the outside of the plate as well.

I think it's probably better to say that instead of it being a rule of thumb, it's a strategy many pitchers follow. For guys with Grade A breaking pitches, it makes more sense. Of course Randy Johnson threw his slider to whomever he wanted - he had one of the best sliders ever. He'd have that thing sweeping right in on people's hands. it was as fast as many people's fastball and guys couldn't hit it. Likewise Pedro throws his changeup to righties but that's because his changeup is so good. Here you see it, here you don't. Whiff.

I think for guys whose stuff isn't as good, it probably makes more sense. Unless you've got a straight dead-fish change, you have to start your changeup off the outside corner for guys from the same side as you, unless you want to take a risk and start it off over the plate and have it break inside. I don't know if every pitcher has that kind of confidence in their changeup, unless they've got a really good one. Same with the slider - you better have it breaking their bat or it'll get deposited in the seats.

Edited by Spacemans Bong, 21 May 2010 - 06:10 PM.

[mabrowndog]

From today's Red Sox game notes:

Last night, Jon Lester made his 100th career start (101st appearance), improving to 46-18 (.719) in his career starts…According to Elias, it is the 9th best winning percentage ever through a pitcher’s 1st 100 starts, behind Whitey Ford (.773, 58-17), Ron Guidry (.765, 62-19), Sal Maglie (.759, 60-19), Dwight Gooden (.756, 59-19), Bill Hoffer (.750, 72-24), Lefty Gomez (.736, 64-23), John Clarkson (.735, 72-26) and Larry Corcoran (.729, 70-26)…Next behind Lester on that list is Roger Clemens (.718, 56-22) (includes starts only).

[Jnai]

When I transitioned my site over to the new layout I think it got eaten. I will have to dig to find it, but will post it here when I do.

Still trying to find the article, but here is the difference in appearance I was talking about (found the images):





Those are the same kinds of pitches, (sinkers and sliders) thrown by Justin Masterson last year in a game against RHH and LHH.

Edited by Jnai, 22 May 2010 - 09:40 AM.

[donutogre]

Thanks for posting...I've never seen a chart like that. Crazy stuff.

[Sprowl]

Lester gives up 1 hit, walks 5, strikes out 9.

Was Lester's control bad? The strike zone was wide and shallow for both pitchers, and Lester did not suffer disproportionately -- indeed, he got a few gifts. Lester refused to groove pitches: his strike zone chart is remarkable for the nearly empty sweet spot.

Savin Hillbilly and I have been following the progress of Lester's newfound front-door cutter, thrown inside to LHB, and backing them off the plate while getting a called strike 3 on the inside edge. This is a new pitch for Lester: slower (85-6, sometimes overlapping in velocity with his changeup), with more horizontal cut, and designed to produce called strikes. It can be contrasted with the cut fastball thrown down and in to RHB -- that pitch is faster, cuts less (or not at all), and aims to end up out of the strike zone. It's best outcome is the swinging strike. In the cutter cluster, most fast cutters are thrown to righties, and most of the slower cutters are thrown to lefties. The latter probably deserve to be called a true slider. Lester is up to six pitches now.

[smastroyin]

Has anyone seen anything anywhere about why Lester was so distracted by the mound and what the problem was? Despite the fact that he seemed to be bothered, talked to a trainer, and seemed to be wild at times, the Boston press did not apparently think to ask him a question about it.

[Bdanahy14]

Lester gives up 1 hit, walks 5, strikes out 9.

Was Lester's control bad? The strike zone was wide and shallow for both pitchers, and Lester did not suffer disproportionately -- indeed, he got a few gifts. Lester refused to groove pitches: his strike zone chart is remarkable for the nearly empty sweet spot.

Savin Hillbilly and I have been following the progress of Lester's newfound front-door cutter, thrown inside to LHB, and backing them off the plate while getting a called strike 3 on the inside edge. This is a new pitch for Lester: slower (85-6, sometimes overlapping in velocity with his changeup), with more horizontal cut, and designed to produce called strikes. It can be contrasted with the cut fastball thrown down and in to RHB -- that pitch is faster, cuts less (or not at all), and aims to end up out of the strike zone. It's best outcome is the swinging strike. In the cutter cluster, most fast cutters are thrown to righties, and most of the slower cutters are thrown to lefties. The latter probably deserve to be called a true slider. Lester is up to six pitches now.

Thanks Sprowl - I noticed the pitch last night... and figured he had slowed down the cutter. Have you been able to notice any change in delivery? Does the arm speed slow down? Is it a pitch that after people start to see more often they will be able to notice? Has he only thrown it to lefties so far?

[Sprowl]

Thanks Sprowl - I noticed the pitch last night... and figured he had slowed down the cutter. Have you been able to notice any change in delivery? Does the arm speed slow down? Is it a pitch that after people start to see more often they will be able to notice? Has he only thrown it to lefties so far?

Lester doesn't appear to change arm speed on the brushback slider to LHB, compared to the cutter down and in to RHB. He does get a little extra horizontal cut on it, and a little less velocity -- of course, reduced velocity does give the pitch a little more time to move, even if it's a very small difference at the margin. He's thrown the slower slider more often to lefties, but the differences are small enough to make a definite conclusion presumptuous.

***

Lester's rate stats tell an interesting tale about what has made Lester so successful in May. Lester's walk rate is shooting up, but his hit rate is plummeting -- one hit and 5 walks against the Rays preceded 4 hits and 4 walks against the Royals. He is nibbling more often, trying to get hitters to chase: Zone = 43.9%, compared to 47-51% in his previous four years. Often enough, hitters do chase bad pitches: O-swing = 30%, up from 21-27% before 2010. Lester's BABIP is down to a tidy .264, his GB/FB ratio is 2.13 (5th in the AL; Buchholz is 6th at 1.85), and a FB% of only 25.8% is way down from past years -- it gives batters fewer chances to hit a home run.

***

The most striking development against the Royals was the use of the changeup as an out pitch: he threw 7, 5 of them resulting in balls hit in play for outs. Lester lost velocity early, sitting at 90-92 from the third inning onwards, but all of his pitches were working -- 2 swinging strikes on the curve and the cutter, and 5 on the fastball. How fortunate to have a pitcher any one of whose five pitches may be an out pitch in any given game.