Wow- Bill Deane's argument on Grady Little's behalf is just horrible
The essence of which is:
a ) You've got the best pitcher in the AL on the mound
b ) your alternative is a reliever on a hot streak due for reversion to the mean
c ) the evidence that says Pedro falls apart after pitch 100 is invalid because of small sample size
A ) Pedro was one of the best pitchers in the AL on an ERA basis BECAUSE you took him out of the game in the 7th or 8th when he got close to the 100 pitch mark
B ) what are the odds that Embree, Timlin, and Williamson are going to collectively revert to the mean before they get 6 outs. Better or worse or a push with Pedro falling apart late in the game, late in the season. Which decision has more downside risk?
C ) great time to test that theory
Bill Deane also ignores the most maddening part of the whole saga- that Little didn't have the opportunity to pull Pedro once. He had the opportunity at least 4 times before the score was tied
YANKEES 8TH: Johnson popped to shortstop;
Jeter doubled to right;
Williams singled to center [Jeter scored];
Matsui doubled [Williams to third];
Posada doubled to center [Williams scored, Matsui scored];
EMBREE REPLACED MARTINEZ (PITCHING); Giambi
flied to center;
TIMLIN REPLACED EMBREE (PITCHING); SIERRA
BATTED FOR WILSON; Sierra was walked intentionally; BOONE RAN
FOR SIERRA; Garcia walked [Posada to third, Boone to second];
Soriano forced Garcia (second to shortstop); 3 R, 4 H, 0 E, 3
LOB. Red Sox 5, Yankees 5.
Excuse me while I go post something in the 2003 Game threads. [Dammit the hate filled 2003 Game Thread was lost ]
Edited by ilikedonuts, 04 May 2006 - 03:35 PM.