91 replies to this topic

[phragle]

Buchholz slider has turned into a cutter. Link.

Also even though most of Buch's fastballs have been 95-97 there is a interesting group of them in the 93 range, but the are not sinkers.

Why isn't Clay getting groundballs like last year?

Actually it'd be hard to say he has thrown a 2-seamer yet. The 2-seam fastball is a sinker which is what helped him get all those groundballs last year. Link.

[rembrat]

Actually it'd be hard to say he has thrown a 2-seamer yet. The 2-seam fastball is a sinker which is what helped him get all those groundballs last year. Link.

Right. The Jose Guillen shot was a weak 2 seamer moving in. Perhaps he isn't feeling it today.

[Sprowl]

Also even though most of Buch's fastballs have been 95-97 there is a interesting group of them in the 93 range, but the are not sinkers.

Actually it'd be hard to say he has thrown a 2-seamer yet. The 2-seam fastball is a sinker which is what helped him get all those groundballs last year. Link.

Yea, I don't know what to make of those 93 fastballs -- there's enough of a separation to make one think that they are intentionally different from Buchholz's regular fastball, yet the movement doesn't seem unusual. Is there anything systematic about when those 'slow' fastballs are thrown (eg, a get-me-over fastball in a 3-0 count)?

His slider continues to get harder: the slider has climbed from 85 to 92 over the course of two years.

Neither Buchholz nor Meche usually throws 97 -- I think the KC velocity readings are probably inflated by 1-2 mph.

[phragle]

Yea, I don't know what to make of those 93 fastballs -- there's enough of a separation to make one think that they are intentionally different from Buchholz's regular fastball, yet the movement doesn't seem unusual. Is there anything systematic about when those 'slow' fastballs are thrown (eg, a get-me-over fastball in a 3-0 count)?

Probably, more than half of them are the first pitch of the AB.

His slider continues to get harder: the slider has climbed from 85 to 92 over the course of two years.

I was just about to say it's gone to far, but since he has throw in some sliders with less speed and more break. A lot of pitchers can vary the speed and movement on their sliders, I'm thinking that is what Clay is doing. I'll do more with this after the game.

[phragle]

[Sprowl]

Breaking out from the 4/11 game thread -- Buchholz's first start of 2010.

Buchholz's fastball straightens out when it gets up in the zone. Much of his forward progress in 2009 came from avoiding mistakes, especially avoiding the high fastball. Buchholz's strike zone on 4/11 against the Royals.

[Adirondack jack]

Neither Buchholz nor Meche usually throws 97 -- I think the KC velocity readings are probably inflated by 1-2 mph.

The KC broadcast mentioned this a few times as well this afternoon. They said it's inflated a couple MPH.

[Miskatonic PhD]

Then it would be appear to be key for Clay to pitch when umpires are actually calling the low strike. If he gets a West/Hernandez type he's by and larged fucked, isn't he?

[Vegas Sox Fan]

Yea, I don't know what to make of those 93 fastballs -- there's enough of a separation to make one think that they are intentionally different from Buchholz's regular fastball, yet the movement doesn't seem unusual. Is there anything systematic about when those 'slow' fastballs are thrown (eg, a get-me-over fastball in a 3-0 count)?

I don't have a link but I seem to remember Lester being quoted as saying one of the big differences during his breakout was when he realized he could throw his fastball with less velocity for a change of pace type pitch. Does anyone else remember this? Is it possible Clay is doing the same thing?

[pokey_reese]

That strike zone was fairly good yesterday, though it looks like there were 6 pitches within the imaginary box that were called balls (5 in the bottom of the zone), and none that were outside of it, even barely, that were called strikes. So it wasn't a friendly strike zone, but the umpire didn't kill him out there either.

What struck me a few times was how much he was going to the fastball, and how rarely the offspeed stuff, especially the curve. He started off the 2nd inning with 7 straight FBs, and 8 or the first 9 pitches, including the home run to Guillen on his 5th FB in a row, and out of 16 pitches, 13 were FBs. Pods' double to open the 4th also came in an AB where he saw 4 straight FBs, and of the 7 hits Buchholz gave up, 5 were on FBs, compared to 2 on offspeed pitches. Granted, since he throws more FBs than anything else, you would expect that to be the case, but he only recorded 4 outs with the FB (2 of which were line drives that happened to be hit at fielders), compared to 9 outs on offspeed pitches (plus the error on Hall) against 2 hits on offspeed pitches.

Of course, it is tough to tell what to make of this, since you could easily argue that the effectiveness of his offspeed pitches was because he was pitching off the fastball, but on a pitch-by-pitch basis it appears that his offspeed stuff more effective for getting weak contact and swinging strikes (again though, that is helped when hitters are expecting the FB). If he could start just getting more called strikes with the curveball to go with the change-up, which he should as get gets his feel back for it over the next few starts, then he should be very effective. I was pretty pleased with this start, all things considered.

[smastroyin]

Of course, it is tough to tell what to make of this, since you could easily argue that the effectiveness of his offspeed pitches was because he was pitching off the fastball, but on a pitch-by-pitch basis it appears that his offspeed stuff more effective for getting weak contact and swinging strikes (again though, that is helped when hitters are expecting the FB). If he could start just getting more called strikes with the curveball to go with the change-up, which he should as get gets his feel back for it over the next few starts, then he should be very effective. I was pretty pleased with this start, all things considered.

This is true of almost every pitcher in the game. Of the 14 AL teams, 12 had a negative linear weights value on fastballs. Of the 229 pitchers in the AL who threw more than 20 IP, only 80 had postive linear weights on fastballs.

This jibes pretty well, IMO, with how hitters approach the game.

[phragle]

Then it would be appear to be key for Clay to pitch when umpires are actually calling the low strike. If he gets a West/Hernandez type he's by and larged fucked, isn't he?

Well every pitcher is going to have more trouble if the umpire isn't calling the low strike. You are right that a GB pitcher with a fastball that straightens out up in the zone is going to have more trouble. Fortunately, Buchholz has the off-speed pitches (change, slider, and curve) to get the swing and misses to survive if the ump isn't calling the low strike or if his sinker isn't working.

[pokey_reese]

This is true of almost every pitcher in the game. Of the 14 AL teams, 12 had a negative linear weights value on fastballs. Of the 229 pitchers in the AL who threw more than 20 IP, only 80 had postive linear weights on fastballs.

This jibes pretty well, IMO, with how hitters approach the game.

Thank you very much for including those stats, I didn't know that but it confirms what I was trying (badly) to get across. As I was writing I was worried that people would think that I was suggesting that he had a terrible fastball and should only through curveballs, hence all the parenthetical notation. I certainly don't want him to pitch like our old friend Bronson Arroyo, but Buchholz seems to have the stuff/pitch repetoire to approach hitters like Greinke or Verlander, if he can locate his fastball better. I like that he is trying to get ahead in the count, but when he throws the first pitch to each hitter or needs a strike at a later point in the AB, it is almost always either a FB right down the pipe or well out of the zone. I certainly understand that it is a game of inches, and God knows it is really hard to have pin-point control under any circumstances, but if Clay can just be a little finer with that pitch consistently, there is no reason that he can't be just as good as Beckett.

[ScubaSteveAvery]

Yea, I don't know what to make of those 93 fastballs -- there's enough of a separation to make one think that they are intentionally different from Buchholz's regular fastball, yet the movement doesn't seem unusual. Is there anything systematic about when those 'slow' fastballs are thrown (eg, a get-me-over fastball in a 3-0 count)?

His slider continues to get harder: the slider has climbed from 85 to 92 over the course of two years.

I was just about to say it's gone to far, but since he has throw in some sliders with less speed and more break. A lot of pitchers can vary the speed and movement on their sliders, I'm thinking that is what Clay is doing. I'll do more with this after the game.

Whatever Buchholz has done with his slider, its working. His slider is the only one of his pitches to have continually gotten better the last two years. I think part of that has to do with the increase in speed, as well as his ability to pitch smarter with it (i.e. mix the speeds and breaks, as well as locate the pitch better). Looking at linear weights we see an improvement with his slider from 2008 to 2009:

Clay Buchholz: Slider

Season	wSL	wSL/C	BF
2007	1	4.71	88
2008	2.1	2.01	357
2009	3.3	2.17	399

wSL is the run expectancy of his sliders, cumulatively. wSL/C is the run expectancy of his slider, per 100 sliders thrown. I also threw in total batters faced in order to emphasize the small sample size we are working with. I don't really think too much can be gleaned from 2007 considering he only faced 88 batters. But in 2008 we see that his slider was a successful pitch. Since he faced so few batters, and threw a small amount of sliders (only 7.6% of his pitches thrown that year), I'll turn to wSL/C to compare him to other sliders in the league. In 2008 Jon Lester's slider was the best in the league with a 9.14 normalized run expectancy. A normalized run expectancy of 2.01 would rank Buchholz 16th out of all MLB starting pitchers in 2008 (if he were eligible as a SP at FanGraphs). And then in 2009 we also see another improvement on his slider, which I think corroborates Sprowl's and Phragle's evidence of increased speed and smarter pitching. FanGraphs has Buchholz 2009 slider coming in at an average of 4.4 mph faster than 2008. Furthermore, he threw it 2.9% more than in 2009 and had a full 1.2 greater cumulative run expectancy. However, the normalized data shows a much smaller increase of 0.16. One possible explanation is that since the slider wasn't drastically better in the normative data, he threw the pitch more effectively overall (as evidenced by the cumulative data). We shouldn't' expect the normalized data to fluctuate as much, but I think it doesn't reflect as big of increase. In 2009 his slider was 13th overall out of all MLB starters (A.J. Burnett was the best with an incredible 21.76 wSL/C). Overall, the LW data indicates that Buchholz' slider is a really strong pitch, and that its getting stronger (although we should be mindful that the sample sizes are still pretty small, as he's yet to pitch a full season so far).

Edited by ScubaSteveAvery, 15 April 2010 - 08:59 PM.

[ScubaSteveAvery]

I think it was interesting that in this start Buchholz’ slider had an inverse relationship with last start’s slider. The harder sliders had more movement and the slower ones had less movement. The pitch was still effective. Out of the 16 or so I count, only 1 was put into play (out). He also got 2 swinging strikes and 3 called strikes with it. One was fouled off. About 50% were thrown for balls. I’m really digging that change though - lots of movement and little contact, with more swinging strikes. It seemed to cluster around 83 mph and run in about 5 inches to a RHH. Only 5 curve and none that caused any damage.

He pitched with a lot of success down and in to RHH. The ump was also generous with his calls in that area, so I’m glad to see Buchholz working it (link). As expected, balls around the middle of the plate were hit into play, and Burrell’s double was up and away. I see a lot of foul balls and called strikes. He seemed to work all over the plate with rightes, mixing up locations well.



Buchholz tried to work the outer half of the plate against lefties, which had mixed success. He kept the ball away for the most part, but had a lot more contact. The two hits to lefties were fastballs on the outer half the plate (Crawford’s single and Jaso’s double). He still drew about 3-4 foul balls on the outer half. And I see 5 called strikes and 2 swinging strikes:



Overall though, I though outside of the first inning, this was a promising start for Buchholz. Without the error by Cameron, Buchholz would have been out of the first inning with a single and a walk. He needs to cut down on the walks, and throw more breaking pitches for strikes, but at least he was able to keep his fastball down for the most part:

[John DiFool]

Then it would be appear to be key for Clay to pitch when umpires are actually calling the low strike. If he gets a West/Hernandez type he's by and larged fucked, isn't he?

West called his no-no.

Edited by John DiFool, 18 April 2010 - 10:13 PM.

[phragle]

I think it was interesting that in this start Buchholz’ slider had an inverse relationship with last start’s slider. The harder sliders had more movement and the slower ones had less movement. The pitch was still effective. Out of the 16 or so I count, only 1 was put into play (out). He also got 2 swinging strikes and 3 called strikes with it. One was fouled off. About 50% were thrown for balls. I’m really digging that change though - lots of movement and little contact, with more swinging strikes. It seemed to cluster around 83 mph and run in about 5 inches to a RHH. Only 5 curve and none that caused any damage.

I don't know if you could say that his slider had an inverse relation to first game, but it surely wasn't like the first game. I'd say there was no relation between speed and break. Is that why he threw 10 of 19 for balls? I don't know, we will have to wait and see.

What I do know is that his 2-seam (sinker) was much more effective than his 4-seamer. All the swinging strikes came on the 2-seamer and most of the balls came on his 4-seamer

Overall though, I though outside of the first inning, this was a promising start for Buchholz. Without the error by Cameron, Buchholz would have been out of the first inning with a single and a walk. He needs to cut down on the walks, and throw more breaking pitches for strikes, but at least he was able to keep his fastball down for the most part:

He kept his fastball down alright! he kept everything down, in the dirt even!
9 of the pitches below the strike zone were fastballs
8 were change-ups
7 were sliders
5 were curves (which isn't bad)

Next outing I'd like to see him not drill for oil.

[czar]

He kept his fastball down alright! he kept everything down, in the dirt even!
9 of the pitches below the strike zone were fastballs
8 were change-ups
7 were sliders
5 were curves (which isn't bad)

Next outing I'd like to see him not drill for oil.

Relative to total pitches thrown?

Buchholz 4/17 Frequency Table (Number of pitches per type per height bin)

pz (feet)	CH	CU	FF	SL
0-1	4	2	5	5
1-2	8	4	17	4
2-3	7	2	26	7
3-4	1	0	11	2
4-5	0	0	2	0
SUM	20	8	61	18

Buchholz 4/17 Normalized Percentages (Pitch type by height bin)

pz (feet)	CH	CU	FF	SL
0-1	0.2	0.25	0.08	0.28
1-2	0.4	0.5	0.28	0.22
2-3	0.35	0.25	0.43	0.39
3-4	0.05	0	0.18	0.11
4-5	0	0	0.03	0

(pz is the height in feet from the ground, I binned the pitches in each 1 ft height band and then normalized by total pitches thrown -- FF = fastball, CH = changeup, CU = curveball, SL = slider)

Quantitatively he really buried the CH, CU, and SL when he needed to. "Drilling for oil" with these pitches (especially the changeup) are actually very good signs; when he keeps the changeup between 0-2 feet (a little above the knees or below) it means he started the pitch in the middle of the strikezone (if you are sitting fastball) and he should a lot of swinging strikes if he hides the ball well*. I'd go so far as to say that only having 60% of your change at or below the knees (12/20 pitches) is actually not a high enough ratio since it means you are leaving 40% up where they are easily hittable if you get the read (or guess) right. A nice side effect to keeping offspeed pitches down is that even if the opposing batter picks "change" or "curve" it's hard to do much about it if you make a good pitch.

While he did have some fastballs down in the zone (including a few skipped stones), his trouble (again) was the disproportionate number of FF up in the zone. 39 of his 61 fastballs were either in the middle of the strike zone (heightwise) or higher. Probably not a long-term recipe for success. In this case we need more pitches down-- we want to see that maximum in height frequency go from the 2-3 ft bin to the 1-2 ft bin.

* One thing that should be noted, is that the Rays did an extremely good job laying off changeup down, not swinging at any that were below 1.7 ft (10 of them). In fact they laid off 2-3 that were technically in the normalized strike zone but called balls by the HPU. I'll have to dig around for some more numbers, but you'd think ~1-2 feet is prime swinging strike territory. Kind of surprising that he didn't get any with his go-to pitch down there yesterday. As for the curve and slider; he got a couple more swings and misses at those when they were way down (1-1.5 feet) but again, the Rays still did an extremely good job not going out of the zone down. Honestly, I'm actually surprised at the discipline they had when I actually look at the raw data as opposed to what I remember from watching the game yesterday.

EDIT: I hate tables; that's the best I'm doing for now.

Edited by czar, 19 April 2010 - 01:02 AM.

[Miskatonic PhD]

West called his no-no.

Was West calling a low strike that day? Was Clay pitching the same way then he is now?

Not being a smart-ass. Particularly on the second point.

As to the first, I ask because if these guys were consistent that would be half the issue with them solved, wouldn't it?

[Sprowl]

Buchholz pitched a brilliant six innings against the Rangers, and in the seventh he lost command and velocity at the same time. Buchholz usually handles left-handed hitters by throwing them fastballs away, away, away. For the first six innings, he hit his spots, but in the 7th, he lost command and velocity at the same time. Against Murphy in the 7th, he threw 1) a fastball high and away, 2) a changeup for a swinging strike, over the middle of the plate and just above the knees, and 3) a 91.8 mph 2-seamer in exactly the same spot, below the belt, but over the heart of the plate. Against Hamilton the same pitch got Buchholz in trouble: a sinker that didn't get outside enough. Against Nelson Cruz, Buchholz gave up singles on two sliders, both down and out, but in the strike zone. Otherwise, he was simply brilliant against righties, with more swinging strikes than the Red Sox staff seems to have had all year. With the benefit of hindsight, though, it looks like Buchholz had 90 pitch stamina.

It's a pity because for the first six innings, his velocity was impressive, his location was excellent, and all three of his offspeed pitches were devastating.

[pokey_reese]

Buchholz had an amazing 26 swinging strikes last night. By way of comparison, when Beckett had his gem against Tampa Bay last Friday, striking out 8 over 7 innings, he got 11 swinging strikes. The Rangers were, until the 7th, completely unable to guess what was coming from Buchholz, and once he threw, they seemed to have a very hard time picking up the ball and identifying the pitch, leading to a lot of weak swings at sliders away, and change-ups down.

[Pumpsie]

Buchholz pitched a brilliant six innings against the Rangers, and in the seventh he lost command and velocity at the same time. Buchholz usually handles left-handed hitters by throwing them fastballs away, away, away. For the first six innings, he hit his spots, but in the 7th, he lost command and velocity at the same time. Against Murphy in the 7th, he threw 1) a fastball high and away, 2) a changeup for a swinging strike, over the middle of the plate and just above the knees, and 3) a 91.8 mph 2-seamer in exactly the same spot, below the belt, but over the heart of the plate. Against Hamilton the same pitch got Buchholz in trouble: a sinker that didn't get outside enough. Against Nelson Cruz, Buchholz gave up singles on two sliders, both down and out, but in the strike zone. Otherwise, he was simply brilliant against righties, with more swinging strikes than the Red Sox staff seems to have had all year. With the benefit of hindsight, though, it looks like Buchholz had 90 pitch stamina.

It's a pity because for the first six innings, his velocity was impressive, his location was excellent, and all three of his offspeed pitches were devastating.

Excellent analysis, as usual, Sprowl. THIS is why we have a manager, or are supposed to. Can't Francona and Farrell SEE this change in Buchholz' pattern as its happening and can't they reach the same conclusion? It's like they're asleep. Sometimes I miss Jimy Williams, and that's saying a LOT.

Edited by Pumpsie, 23 April 2010 - 10:34 AM.

[donutogre]

I think, to be fair, that even though Francona et al have the best seats in the house, it still isn't the same as having a perfect view of the pitcher dead center to tell when he starts missing by little bits, or that his velocity slipped a few MPH (can what is posted on the scoreboard really be trusted?). He should have been faster with the hook, no doubt, but I just wonder how much more obvious it is to us sitting at home with Gameday and HDTV to see things happening.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

What's stopping the Red Sox from having someone sitting in a room or a truck watching the feed and relaying that kind of information to the dugout? In the age of instant replay, you'd think it would be a relatively simple matter of making sure the manager is as informed as possible at all times.

[Max Power]

What's stopping the Red Sox from having someone sitting in a room or a truck watching the feed and relaying that kind of information to the dugout? In the age of instant replay, you'd think it would be a relatively simple matter of making sure the manager is as informed as possible at all times.

Good idea. And while they're at it, they could use the same system to relay the opposing catcher's signs to the hitter.

[smastroyin]

I also think that they also find some value in Buchholz trying to figure it out rather than using the Jimy Williams method. We all know that though it exasperates the denizens of SoSH, and though with the slow start they have less margin for error, Tito and company are going to absolutely treat this like a marathon. If Clay losing a bit of his feel in April costs the Sox some portion of a win (since they were shut-out, it's hard to make the argument that the third or even second run made much of a difference in this game) but the experiences helps make Clay better for June-October and 2011 and beyond, my guess is they would take the trade-off.

Also, it amazes me that some of the people who want faster games also complain about slow hooks. It takes time to get pitchers ready. Clay was cruising. So, unless you are going to blow through guys by warming them up too much, what is your strategy here? The first batter Clay has a problem with, you get someone throwing in earnest? Even if you did that, unless you use stalling tactics, he is going to probably have to pitch to two more guys.

[czar]

Piggybacking off what Sprowl already discussed but in the seventh...

Buchholz threw four pitches to Hamilton: FB, CH, CH, SL, FB. The velocity on the fastball was good (only down about 0.5 mph from his game avg) and he pounded the bottom of the zone-- the count was 3-1, but pF/X shows both the first changeup and the slider were right at the knees and could have gone either way. The FB that Hamilton eventually raked was also a good pitch.

He also threw 5 pitches to Cruz. FB, SL, FB, FB, FB. Again the count was 3-1 when Cruz got a hit (A changeup (88.2 mph) middle in), but Buchholz's velocity during that AB was actually higher than the Hamilton AB (94.07 mph). The location wasn't quite as good as in the previous AB, but again, on balls 1 and 3, Clay wasn't more than 4 inches above or below the normalized strike zone; well within the range that could have been "deemed a strike" by the HPU.

To Murphy he threw 3 pitches. FB, SL, FB. First fastball was 93.6, but second one (one that he got the hit on) was much slower. This was probably the first real "bad" AB Buchholz threw, getting a fastball strike over the middle for strike 1, leaving a CH high for ball 1, and grooving a FB in pretty much the same spot as the first one for the double.

Did he fatigue in the 7th? Sure looks like it (although I disagree that his FB velocity dropped a lot in this inning; he threw a couple slower ones that skewed the average down, but he really plateaued in the 4-5-6 in terms of absolute velocity). But those who think Terry left him in too long, what objective evidence did we have a priori that told us "this isn't good" until it was too late? The data implies the AB to Hamilton was actually pitched quite well. The Cruz AB had a negative outcome as a result of one suspect pitch. His first poor AB that implied he was gassed was the third one, and even after that he still threw pretty good AB vs. the next three hitters (his eventual error notwithstanding).

EDIT: Moved images to my server so as to stop pounding Jnai's.

Edited by czar, 23 April 2010 - 11:49 AM.

[curly2]

Plus Bard and Papelbon were probably unavailable after each pitching two innings the night before. And Oki was probably available for only one inning (the ninth if they were ahead). So it was either Clay, who had looked great and showed no signs of fatigue entering the inning or going to Ramirez, Delcarmen, Schoeneweis or Atchison at the first sign of trouble. I'd take my chances with 80 percent of Buchhholz, especially the way he'd been dealing last night.

[trekfan55]

Good idea. And while they're at it, they could use the same system to relay the opposing catcher's signs to the hitter.

Well, tapegate aside, the NFL uses this system. they have a coach upstairs viewing eveything and they constantly send video and pictures down to the QB and the staff on the field which is used to make adjustments.

Edited by trekfan55, 23 April 2010 - 12:38 PM.

[teddywingman]

In addition to what has already been said regarding Clay's last inning:

It's easy to look at the cumulative data and say that he should have been pulled. But when the game is in progress, even if we had Sprowl or Czar sitting in a truck, it would have been hard to say 'pull him.' Even with that pitch count, and bullpen issues aside- there seemed a good chance he would make it out of the inning with minimal damage.

[Eric Van]

Others have pointed out that this can't be regarded as a slow hook. Given who was available, do you actually lift him with 98 pitches after he's given up his first run on a well-hit double but a ground ball single up the middle? Furthermore, after Murphy smoked him for the second run, he got Davis and fanned Teagarden with pitches 102-113 and the third run scored on a play where Buchholz himself could have recorded an out with a good fielding play and the batter made that more difficult by running right down (or in fact a bit inside of) the baseline.

As someone said, the extra runs didn't cost you the game, and you gave him some valuable experience. His WPA for the game was positive. On a normal day you win 5-3 and no one thinks twice about the 7th.

In the meantime, for six innings he looked fantastic and he got swinging strikeouts on all five of his pitches.

Hamilton - 4-seam
Cruz - change
Teagarden - curve
Andrus - slider
Young - change
Davis - slider
Andrus - 2-seamer
Teagraden - slider

[rembrat]

How the hell is Clay throwing his 2seam fastball at 95 MPH? I've always read that a fastball with run on it is generally slower than your 4seam fastball and I don't remember him throwing it that hard last year. I have yet to see one of his starts this year but Pitch f/x says he has hit 97 with his fastball. Is he really throwing this hard or is it the Fenway gun at it again?

[czar]

I have yet to see one of his starts this year but Pitch f/x says he has hit 97 with his fastball. Is he really throwing this hard or is it the Fenway gun at it again?

We discussed this last year-- unfortunately StupendousMan's image comparing the ballparks pF/X data is broken, but the general consensus was the the Sox system was a bit on the high end (although everything was within 1.5 mph or thereabouts, IIRC).

AFAIK the NESN numbers are rounded pF/X numbers, so what you get on the TV should be what you get from the raw data.

[Eric Van]

How the hell is Clay throwing his 2seam fastball at 95 MPH? I've always read that a fastball with run on it is generally slower than your 4seam fastball and I don't remember him throwing it that hard last year. I have yet to see one of his starts this year but Pitch f/x says he has hit 97 with his fastball. Is he really throwing this hard or is it the Fenway gun at it again?

A lot of guys throw both FB at the same speed and when there's a difference it's usually 1, maybe 2 mph.

The 97 mph 4-seamer blew away Hamilton upstairs; it was legit gas even if it's 96 in most parks. There were reports of him hitting 97 as far back as the end of 2006, IIRC.

[phragle]

A lot of guys throw both FB at the same speed

Like Beckett for example.

[Sprowl]

Like Beckett for example.

True, but I think Beckett is the exception rather than the rule in throwing an equally hard sinker as 4-seam fastball. For Lester, Matsuzaka and Buchholz, the 2-seamer does seem 1-2 mph slower on average. For example, see Lester's pitch classification and velocities from the Baltimore game.

[luckysox]

I have no fancy statistics.

Clay Buchholz stepped up tonight the way that great pitchers step up when their team needs them. He gutted it out the last inning, complete with error by his defense, and simply did what he needed to do to win the game. This game seems like a huge step forward - he put together his pitching stuff and his mental stuff and put the team on his back. HUGE game by Clay.

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

What I thought was most impressive was that Buchholz clearly had (at least to my eye) pretty poor offspeed stuff tonight. The changeup was often way up in the zone - and his CB was very loopy - didn't really seem to have much of a sharp break. Maybe this was more noticeable simply in comparisom to his last start - where I though he had no-hit stuff. Despite this he still managed his way through the game and shutdown a hot-hitting lineup.

Very impressive indeed.

[pokey_reese]

A lot of what Clay is doing is fantastic (giving up fewer hits than innings pitched, keeping his walks down, not giving up HRs, etc.), but what stands out to me the most is the same thing I mentioned after his last start, the swinging strikes. He seems to finally have harnessed his stuff to the point that he is virtually unhittable at times, and he is not only generating by far the most swings-and-misses on the team, but is actually among the leaders in baseball.

Lackey (4 starts) : 18 swinging strikes
Beckett (5 starts) : 39 swinging strikes
Lester (4 starts) : 42 swinging strikes

Felix Hernandez (5 starts) : 58 swinging strikes
Greinke (5 starts) : 34 swinging strikes
Verlander (5 starts) : 50 swinging strikes

Buchholz (4 starts) : 62 swinging strikes

Despite being a start behind the aces in the American league, Clay Buchholz is easily beating them in getting hitters to miss his pitches.

[czar]

Despite being a start behind the aces in the American league, Clay Buchholz is easily beating them in getting hitters to miss his pitches.

In that same vein, what really stands out to me (SSS) is his ability to get hitters to swing and miss at pitches INSIDE the strike zone.

Buchholz - 2010 Inside Strike Zone Swing and Miss Numbers

Season	Z-Swing%	Z-Contact%	Z-SwungOnAndMissed%
2007	61.20%	91.40%	5.26%
2008	59.70%	83.70%	9.73%
2009	65.20%	84.70%	9.97%
2010	68.80%	77.90%	15.20%

Whether you want to consider this "challenging hitters" or "getting away with mistakes" nearly 1 in 6 of every pitch he throws which would have been a strike to begin with is swung on and missed. That's amazing. For comparison, Lincecum's career average is around 9.1% and Beckett's is 9.8%.

It certainly will come down as the season progresses, but the fact that it's so high at all after a handful of starts is promising and a good indicator of A.) how good his stuff has been and B.) how well he's mixing his pitches up (and hiding them during delivery).

[phragle]

A lot of what Clay is doing is fantastic (giving up fewer hits than innings pitched, keeping his walks down, not giving up HRs, etc.), but what stands out to me the most is the same thing I mentioned after his last start, the swinging strikes. He seems to finally have harnessed his stuff to the point that he is virtually unhittable at times, and he is not only generating by far the most swings-and-misses on the team, but is actually among the leaders in baseball.

Lackey (4 starts) : 18 swinging strikes
Beckett (5 starts) : 39 swinging strikes
Lester (4 starts) : 42 swinging strikes

Felix Hernandez (5 starts) : 58 swinging strikes
Greinke (5 starts) : 34 swinging strikes
Verlander (5 starts) : 50 swinging strikes

Buchholz (4 starts) : 62 swinging strikes

Despite being a start behind the aces in the American league, Clay Buchholz is easily beating them in getting hitters to miss his pitches.

Yeah, he leads the legue in Contact% at just 69.1%.

For comparison, last year's leaders:
Jon Lester 75.6%
Justin Verlander 76.4%
CC Sabathia 76.5%
Felix Hernandez 77.0%
Zack Greinke 77.7%

[Toe Nash]

Yeah, he leads the legue in Contact% at just 69.1%.

For comparison, last year's leaders:
Jon Lester 75.6%
Justin Verlander 76.4%
CC Sabathia 76.5%
Felix Hernandez 77.0%
Zack Greinke 77.7%

Out of curiosity, is there a reason besides sample size that he doesn't have more strikeouts? He's only 11th in the AL in K/9 despite getting so many swings and misses.

[czar]

Out of curiosity, is there a reason besides sample size that he doesn't have more strikeouts? He's only 11th in the AL in K/9 despite getting so many swings and misses.

Some of it's just SSS noise (at this point in the season, a couple well-placed swinging strikes will really boost your rates), but also K/9 is a function of many variables. Contact% is only one of those (location, pitch sequencing, etc.) among the others.

Mainly, I don't think Buchholz has been able to spot pitch after pitch after pitch as effectively as any of the premium starters (yet). When he throws a good one, it's been REAL good. When he leaves his FB out over the plate it gets sent somewhere.

IOW, he has the potential to be even better if his pF/X charts started looking like Kevin Slowey's; that is, if he did a better job keeping pitches off the heart of the plate and kept them near the edges of the strike zone. Not to say he can't be effective now, because his stuff is so good he absolutely can get by with sub-pinpoint control, but if he locates better-- the sky's the limit.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Mainly, I don't think Buchholz has been able to spot pitch after pitch after pitch as effectively as any of the premium starters (yet). When he throws a good one, it's been REAL good. When he leaves his FB out over the plate it gets sent somewhere.

This is certainly part of it as Buchholz does still suffer from bouts of inconsistency, though far less frequently than he used to. I think part of it is also due to the fact that he's not afraid to pitch to contact (something he did a lot of last year) and sees the value of throwing a pitch that can be hit, but not hit well with two strikes rather than fighting with a guy to try and get that last pitch by him. Maybe it's due to having more faith in the defense, or maybe it's just me perceiving something that's not there, but it definitely seems that when he's ahead in the count he's been much more willing to pitch to contact and let the defense do its job.

[Jnai]

New discoveries in the land of SQL: LIKE and "=" are not equivalent!



Data from Buchholz's last start. And, my page should be up and running again.

[SoxScout]

What's Z-SwungOnAndMissed% ?

What's the difference between that and 100% - Z-Contact%

[veritas]

New discoveries in the land of SQL: LIKE and "=" are not equivalent!



Data from Buchholz's last start. And, my page should be up and running again.

I find it interesting that Buchholz' changeup breaks far less horizontally than his fastball. This is very unusual, typically a changeup has as much, if not more fade than a pitcher's fastball. It's kinda like a cut-changeup. I wonder how much this contributes to the deceptiveness of the pitch. It seems like there are more awkward/ugly swings on his changeup than any other Sox pitchers' pitches (other than Wake).

Also, it was nice to see him stay aggressive after Beltre's error. I think his reputation for not being mentally tough is greatly exaggerated, but he does have a tendency to nibble when things aren't going his way. After the Beltre error, he went right after the next two guys.

[Jnai]

I find it interesting that Buchholz' changeup breaks far less horizontally than his fastball. This is very unusual, typically a changeup has as much, if not more fade than a pitcher's fastball. It's kinda like a cut-changeup. I wonder how much this contributes to the deceptiveness of the pitch. It seems like there are more awkward/ugly swings on his changeup than any other Sox pitchers' pitches (other than Wake).

I believe it's a straight change, rather than circle change. Different grip. I think that info came from Eric Van a few years ago originally. Someone can correct me on this.

[Sprowl]

I believe it's a straight change, rather than circle change. Different grip. I think that info came from Eric Van a few years ago originally. Someone can correct me on this.

A few times when Buchholz has thrown the changeup, I saw a grip that looked more like a choke change, with the ball crammed into the palm between the thumb and forefinger, but without the finger tips touching the ball -- at least at the windup stage -- and without the characteristic circle made by the thumb+index finger. Buchholz appears to be long and bony in many dimensions, including his fingers, which are longer than most pitchers'. I think his changeup doesn't move like other pitchers' changes because both his hands and his grip are unusual.

[phragle]

Data from Buchholz's last start. And, my page should be up and running again.

A lot of sexy yellow there.

I believe it's a straight change, rather than circle change. Different grip. I think that info came from Eric Van a few years ago originally. Someone can correct me on this.

I think somebody (maybe Sprowl) called it a "choke change". I think the effectiveness comes from his arm speed and speed differential from his fastball.

Edit: yup, it was Sprowl.

Edited by phragle, 28 April 2010 - 01:42 PM.