113 replies to this topic

[Soxfan in Fla]

In a 28 pitch effort last night in which Papelbon could only get one out in his 2nd inning he teed one up for Granderson and then subsequently nibbled his way to 2 walks.

What is the early analysis on his motion, etc. Is he using his 2008 and prior motion or is he using the one that lead to his wildness last season? He looked good in his 1st outing and seemed fine in his 1st inning of work last night. Is he simply now a 1 inning guy no matter the number of pitches he throws in inning one?

Not throwing this out there for panic purposes. Throwing this out there for analysis.

[donutogre]

Looks to me like he's using the 2008 and prior mechanics, from my untrained eye. I also was pretty pleased by his first inning, and by his outing on opening night...so the mini-meltdown last night was rather disappointed with the results and how quickly he went wild.

He did hang a slider to A-Rod in the 9th that could have been absolutely destroyed but he got away with it.

[jtn46]

Looks to me like he's using the 2008 and prior mechanics, from my untrained eye. I also was pretty pleased by his first inning, and by his outing on opening night...so the mini-meltdown last night was rather disappointed with the results and how quickly he went wild.

I think he's just not good at pitching a second inning in general, and especially in week 1 of the season. Otherwise, I agree, he's looked really good. Splitter is getting bad contact, he's mixing in his slider, fastball has nice velocity.

[rembrat]

That slider is really really bad though. I think Rodriguez didn't send it flying over the Green Monster because he was caught so off guard, not exactly a pitch you expect from Papelbon. And I agree about the 2nd inning of work, they should give up on that.

[donutogre]

That slider is really really bad though. I think Rodriguez didn't send it flying over the Green Monster because he was caught so off guard, not exactly a pitch you expect from Papelbon. And I agree about the 2nd inning of work, they should give up on that.

He's done well over more than 1 inning in the past.

In his only 2 inning appearance last season he went unscathed. Overall he had 7 appearances of more than 1 inning and gave up a run in 2 of them, but those runs didn't cost the game in either case.

In the 2008 postseason, he went 2 innings 3 times without giving up a run. I can keep going but I think that's enough to get started.

So far I don't see any evidence that he is a 1 inning pitcher. You're not going to use him for more than an inning that often, but he has been successful when asked to do it, and last night was the right situation for it.

Edited by donutogre, 08 April 2010 - 01:45 PM.

[EP Sox Fan]

In watching Paps pitch the 10th last night, it seemed pretty clear that he was either overthrowing or his mechanics were off. Martinez was set up inside on the pitch Granderson hit out but it sailed out over the plate. In the next two ABs, he was missing in the same manner, pitch sailing high and to the right.

I didn't see the 9th inning but from the reports he had a clean inning. Was he having the same issue in the 9th?

[donutogre]

I personally thought that, hanging slider to A-Rod aside, Pap looked real good in the 9th. Worked faster, was hitting the strike zone...Yanks didn't hit anything hard off him.

[luckysox]

I personally thought that, hanging slider to A-Rod aside, Pap looked real good in the 9th. Worked faster, was hitting the strike zone...Yanks didn't hit anything hard off him.

I thought he looked as good as he's looked in a year during last night's 9th. I know the bullpen was kind of stretched thin already, but I was surprised to see him out for the 10th this early in the year. Maybe he was not quite primed all the way for 2 innings. This said, I understand the other options didn't inspire confidence v. the MFY.

[jtn46]

I thought he looked as good as he's looked in a year during last night's 9th. I know the bullpen was kind of stretched thin already, but I was surprised to see him out for the 10th this early in the year. Maybe he was not quite primed all the way for 2 innings. This said, I understand the other options didn't inspire confidence v. the MFY.

Right, and I think that was the issue. The pen is kind of thin after Papelbon, Bard and Okajima right now, and Francona likely concluded that a sketchy Papelbon in a second inning in the first week of the season was still better than going to Ramirez, who was hit pretty hard by that team on Sunday, Delcarmen who had a terrible spring and isn't known for pitching well in high leverage spots or Atchinson who is the first man to go should a roster issue arise.

I don't think this is indicative of a major problem, Ramirez and Delcarmen will have ups and downs as they did last season and we can hope someone will emerge and force their way into Atchinson's spot. The bullpen may just not be a strength in the way it was last season, but that doesn't mean it's bad.

[Sprowl]

Papelbon threw 15 pitches and 2 scoreless innings against the Rangers on 4/21, getting 1 strikeout and 5 groundballs (1 for a double play, 1 for a single, and 3 for single outs). On a night when pitchfx registered Neftali Feliz at 102 mph, there's no reason to think that Papelbon's 92-94 fastball was underestimated, but Papelbon did well on location and pitch variety: by my count, 6 four-seamers, 4 sliders, 3 two-seamers, and 2 splitters. One of the splitters hung up in the strike zone, but Hamilton took it to the opposite field on the ground. The sliders showed more horizontal break than Papelbon's usual gyroball slider, and induced several grounders from the Rangers' RHB Cruz, Treanor and Arias.

This was mostly an appearance by Groundball Papelbon: mediocre velocity, but lots of different pitches in different part of the strike zone. There was one appearance by the Fireball Papelbon as well: against Davis, Papelbon threw two high fastballs sandwiched around a low splitter. The strikeout pitch hit the upper outside corner at 95 mph, like Papelbon of old.

[Soxfan in Fla]

Papelbon threw 15 pitches and 2 scoreless innings against the Rangers on 4/21, getting 1 strikeout and 5 groundballs (1 for a double play, 1 for a single, and 3 for single outs). On a night when pitchfx registered Neftali Feliz at 102 mph, there's no reason to think that Papelbon's 92-94 fastball was underestimated, but Papelbon did well on location and pitch variety: by my count, 6 four-seamers, 4 sliders, 3 two-seamers, and 2 splitters. One of the splitters hung up in the strike zone, but Hamilton took it to the opposite field on the ground. The sliders showed more horizontal break than Papelbon's usual gyroball slider, and induced several grounders from the Rangers' RHB Cruz, Treanor and Arias.

This was mostly an appearance by Groundball Papelbon: mediocre velocity, but lots of different pitches in different part of the strike zone. There was one appearance by the Fireball Papelbon as well: against Davis, Papelbon threw two high fastballs sandwiched around a low splitter. The strikeout pitch hit the upper outside corner at 95 mph, like Papelbon of old.

Good stuff Sprowl.

[redsahx]

Repeating myself somewhat from another thread, but I think what we've been seeing is Papelbon adjusting his approach for the long haul. As impressive as he was from 06-08, it's not realistic to expect him to be able to look that dominant and blow away hitter after hitter year after year without his arm falling off. He can still reach back for something extra if he needs it, but I'm guessing he's determined that he needs to find more ways to get guys out in order to last.

[donutogre]

You'd think that if he was serious about finding ways to get guys out without throwing as hard as he has to that he'd spend more time developing/refining a second pitch. Slider still varies wildly in its effectiveness and the splitter comes and goes, and has been mostly gone for a year + now.

I'm all for him finding ways to get guys out without the 95+ heat though. Maybe Bard can teach him how to throw a real slider. That pitch is filthy.

[Laser Show]

You'd think that if he was serious about finding ways to get guys out without throwing as hard as he has to that he'd spend more time developing/refining a second pitch. Slider still varies wildly in its effectiveness and the splitter comes and goes, and has been mostly gone for a year + now.

I'm all for him finding ways to get guys out without the 95+ heat though. Maybe Bard can teach him how to throw a real slider. That pitch is filthy.

I think he is. I was at the game on Monday, and when he was throwing with Razor before the game it appeared as if he was working on a secondary pitch with Farrell. It looked like the slider, but I'm not entirely sure.

[phragle]

You'd think that if he was serious about finding ways to get guys out without throwing as hard as he has to that he'd spend more time developing/refining a second pitch. Slider still varies wildly in its effectiveness and the splitter comes and goes, and has been mostly gone for a year + now.

I'm all for him finding ways to get guys out without the 95+ heat though. Maybe Bard can teach him how to throw a real slider. That pitch is filthy.

Or maybe bard can teach him how to throw a real fastball.

[John DiFool]

Pitch locations and velocity aside, what scares me is that he has 8 walks and only 5 strikeouts. I doubt, aside from his rookie season (in the rotation) that you'd find a 10-inning stretch that horrid.

[mabrowndog]

Found this Baseball Prospectus chart interesting. Heading into tonight's game, the hitters Papelbon had faced so far this season had compiled the highest weighted aggregate OPS in the American League for 2010.

Collectively the 38 batters had put up a .275/.362/.457/.819 overall line. Paps has held them to .133/.316/.233/.549, and he's done it while working under a 1.864 average leverage index, the 12th highest among 92 AL relievers.

So yeah, I'm going to cut him a little bit of slack on the 8:5 K/BB ratio.

Edited by mabrowndog, 24 April 2010 - 11:00 PM.

[gcapalbo]

So yeah, I'm going to cut him a little bit of slack on the 8:5 K/BB ratio.

Yeah, and indeed, it is still April, as much as tonight was very uncomfortable to watch, I am happy as well to cut the same slack.

There was however an extremely impressive slider in the mix tonight, that dropped off the table as if by pulled by some magical force, seemingly unhittable.

So, perhaps, there is hope.

[mabrowndog]

There was however an extremely impressive slider in the mix tonight, that dropped off the table as if by pulled by some magical force, seemingly unhittable.

Since sliders (including the one Paps threw to Wigginton) break horizontally with little if any additional drop, I assume you meant his splitter? The one to Rhyne Hughes? If so, that movement was extremely nasty and encouraging to see. But it's still a bit of a bull in a china shop. It seems he really has no clue of the extent of the break or how wild it's going to be when he releases it. That one bit the dirt with two runners aboard, and luckily Tek blocked it with no further harm.

We may never know for sure, but I'm betting he doesn't throw that pitch if it's not to a rookie callup playing in his first major league game. I'm still not sure why he lacks the confidence to throw it more often.

Edited by mabrowndog, 25 April 2010 - 12:53 AM.

[paulftodd]

Found this Baseball Prospectus chart interesting. Heading into tonight's game, the hitters Papelbon had faced so far this season had compiled the highest weighted aggregate OPS in the American League for 2010.

Collectively the 38 batters had put up a .275/.362/.457/.819 overall line. Paps has held them to .133/.316/.233/.549, and he's done it while working under a 1.864 average leverage index, the 12th highest among 92 AL relievers.

So yeah, I'm going to cut him a little bit of slack on the 8:5 K/BB ratio.

I don't know how BP calculates it this early in the season due to the noise of SSS, but based on 2009 stats, his batters faced this year had a collective 819 OPS also. If using the OPS at the end of the game he faced them it comes out as 843.

The thing is, it's not the good hitters (based on 2009 stats) that are getting to him. Against those who had an OPS under 800 last year, they have a 689 OPS in 21 PA with 3K and 4 BB (assuming my calcuations are correct). His overall OPS was 600 OPS last year, 549 so far this year (which went up tonight I imagine). Of those 17 PA by hitters who had an OPS of 800 or over last year, 6 of the PA were due to his not getting outs from the first 3 batters. In any event, the OPS 800+ guys from last year have an 083 BA, so maybe thats his strategy, getting the bad hitters out has become boring for him .

So anyways, he has faced some tough hitters, yet he has not pitched all that well at times either. He is kind of like the Dice-K of closers at this point, getting the job done, but not looking very good doing it.

Edited by paulftodd, 25 April 2010 - 01:30 AM.

[Sprowl]

Since sliders (including the one Paps threw to Wigginton) break horizontally with little if any additional drop, I assume you meant his splitter? The one to Rhyne Hughes? If so, that movement was extremely nasty and encouraging to see. But it's still a bit of a bull in a china shop. It seems he really has no clue of the extent of the break or how wild it's going to be when he releases it. That one bit the dirt with two runners aboard, and luckily Tek blocked it with no further harm.

We may never know for sure, but I'm betting he doesn't throw that pitch if it's not to a rookie callup playing in his first major league game. I'm still not sure why he lacks the confidence to throw it more often.

Here is Papelbon's movement chart from the closer's latest volatile performance. None of his offspeed pitches, slider or sinker, really dropped relative to gravity, yet the two sinkers did get swinging strikes -- mostly due to their location off the outside corner and inside below the knees, respectively. I also thought that the subjective impression of the slider was positive: it seemed to float, then dive, although the movement figures don't reflect that impression. Papelbon's fastball in 2010 has been unimpressive -- the first three Orioles looked for high fastballs early in the count, got them, and hit them -- but his breaking pitches have been good, even when thrown for strikes. An old cliche has it that the hardest pitch to hit is a major-league slider, not because of the absolute movement but because the illusion of a floating or darting pitch is the hardest for the hitter's brain to process effectively in time to translate it into hand-eye co-ordination. I would expect Papelbon to experiment more with the slider and splitter as it becomes apparent that he doesn't have his old velocity, and that good location, while important, isn't enough by itself when the hitters have a good scouting report, especially one that says: gear up for the high fastball early in the count.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Was it only last Friday that Amalie wrote a lengthy article about how Papelbon had regained access to his splitter and slider?

The fastballs kept coming, one after another. By the end of last season, as Jonathan Papelbon watched the season slip out of his hand, mid-90s heater by mid-90s heater, there was nothing the closer could do. He had little left besides his fastball, a fact that was painfully obvious to anyone watching him that day in the playoffs or in many others down the stretch.

He had abandoned the splitter. The slider was still making his manager and pitching coach cringe. He had no choice.

That’s no longer the case. Papelbon has become a pitcher with the ability to use all three pitches in key situations. He is no longer limited to a fastball, a pitch that batters could sit on and wallop. And, because of that, Papelbon has had success similar to that of the best points of his career.

And then last night, 19 pitches, 19 fastballs

It was, instead, the arm of Papelbon that bore the brunt of a loss that was not entirely his fault. Two days after he threw a scoreless 2 1/3 innings against the Tigers, Papelbon was called on again. And, as opposed to the mix of fastballs, splitters, and sliders that had generated some of the best results of his recent past, Papelbon turned to power, throwing 19 straight fastballs. It betrayed him.

Is it the pitcher? Is it the catcher calling the pitches?

The catcher was asked about Matsuzaka throwing fewer fastballs than he had in his previous start against Toronto.

“I don’t know,’’ Martinez said. “He’s the one — I’m just back there trying to help him go through the game. At the end, he’s the one who has the ball in his hand. Like I said, I’m just behind the plate trying to help him. At the end, he’s the one who has the last word. He’s the one who has the ball in his hand. I’m just putting suggestions. He can say yes or no.’’

Martinez seemed frustrated with the amount of times he was shaken off, saying it wasn’t the first time, and it might have been more than usual. Whatever happened between catcher and pitcher, it was clear the Yankees weren’t having any trouble.

Looks like the catcher takes no responsibility for Daisuke's pitch selection, was Papelbon shaking off Martinez as well?

[WoburnDiaspora]

Looks like the catcher takes no responsibility for Daisuke's pitch selection, was Papelbon shaking off Martinez as well?

Yes, he was. Every time Papelbon was looking in toward the catcher the ESPN camera showed his head. And he kept shaking it "no" until, obviously, Martinez showed the sign for fastball

[Savin Hillbilly]

It's interesting to compare the PitchFX charts from last night vs. Papelbon's dominant 13-pitch, 2K performance May 4 vs. the Angels.

One thing I notice right away from May 4 is the obvious differentiation between his 4-seamer and what is being labeled his 2-seamer, but I assume is really his splitter:



Compare that with last night's all-over-the-place performance:



Not only was the stuff not as sharp, his location was awful. Again, May 4--note how everything is either well up (for first-pitch strikes) or pretty well down:



Now last night...oopsie:



You can't throw low-90's slop in those locations to righthanded power hitters and not pay.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Yes, he was. Every time Papelbon was looking in toward the catcher the ESPN camera showed his head. And he kept shaking it "no" until, obviously, Martinez showed the sign for fastball

THEN SHOULDN'T THERE BE A PITCHING COACH COMING OUT (ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FIRST HR) AND MAKING SURE THAT PAPELBON REMEMBERS THAT HE IS ALLOWED TO THROW OTHER PITCHES?

And if for some reason he is unable to throw other pitches (tired? injured?), then perhaps another pitcher should be brought in?

[barbed wire Bob]

Yes, he was. Every time Papelbon was looking in toward the catcher the ESPN camera showed his head. And he kept shaking it "no" until, obviously, Martinez showed the sign for fastball

Papelbon doing his best Ebby Calvin Laloosh imitation: "I want to give him the heat and announce my presence with authority!" If he won't listen to his catcher then I would doubt he would listen to his coach. At this point I would demote Papelbon and go into closer by committee mode. I would also make it very clear to Paps that if he wants to be the closer then he will have to earn it.

[phragle]

Can't he just throw a change-up instead of a splitter? It is much easier to throw, probably the easiest off speed pitch to throw.

[Savin Hillbilly]

THEN SHOULDN'T THERE BE A PITCHING COACH COMING OUT (ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FIRST HR) AND MAKING SURE THAT PAPELBON REMEMBERS THAT HE IS ALLOWED TO THROW OTHER PITCHES?

He was throwing other pitches. He was throwing the fastball up and away, the not-quite-so-fastball middle-in, and the barely-fast-at-all-ball right down the pipe. I don't know how much more you could ask in terms of mixing it up.

[donutogre]

Papelbon doing his best Ebby Calvin Laloosh imitation: "I want to give him the heat and announce my presence with authority!" If he won't listen to his catcher then I would doubt he would listen to his coach. At this point I would demote Papelbon and go into closer by committee mode. I would also make it very clear to Paps that if he wants to be the closer then he will have to earn it.

This is one of the most comical things I've read on this board, and that's saying a lot. You really think Papelbon deserves to be demoted because of a shit-tastic outing last night? News flash - closers get rocked occasionally. He's blown one save this year, and while he hasn't been as lock-down this year as he was in his prime years of 06-08, he is still doing a fairly good job.

That doesn't mean I don't think he could potentially regress more or that he might be a worthwhile trade chip, but seriously...it is easy to remember the flame-out games like this one and forget the month and a half of nearly blemish-free pitching that came before it. Say what you want about Papelbon, but he absolutely has earned the closer role on this team for the time being. When he starts having a Foulke in '05 kind of season, a change will be made, not before (excepting a trade, which would likely only happen if he wasn't playing like crap).

[Spacemans Bong]

He was throwing other pitches. He was throwing the fastball up and away, the not-quite-so-fastball middle-in, and the barely-fast-at-all-ball right down the pipe. I don't know how much more you could ask in terms of mixing it up.

He's to pitching what Kevin Millar was to hitting to all fields.

Millar's gone opposite field to left-center!

[The Gray Eagle]

Maybe Papelbon left his good fastball in Detroit, when he threw 2 1/3 high-leverage innings on Saturday night. After one day of rest, he didn't have anything last night.

Other possibilities for his suckage: he had one of his migraines, he didn't get any sleep due to a crying one-month old baby, or most likely, he just had a shit night against a good team who knows him very well.

Whatever the reason it makes no sense to take him out of the closer's job. Would you really want to see more of the other guys pitching more in late and close situations? They've all sucked at various times, and will continue to suck at various times. The more our starters can give us 7+ innings, the better the bullpen will be. If that doesn't happen often, this team will continue to suck.

[EP Sox Fan]

He was throwing other pitches. He was throwing the fastball up and away, the not-quite-so-fastball middle-in, and the barely-fast-at-all-ball right down the pipe. I don't know how much more you could ask in terms of mixing it up.

After Papelbon's first pitch, I had a feeling he was headed for disaster. It seems like every time he struggles, his fastball tails off high and to the right. It seems like he's overthrowing in order to get more velocity and unable to control and compensates by taking a bit off to regain his ability to locate. The one exception was Texieria's swinging strike on a 96 mph FB right in his wheelhouse. That pitch got to 96 but didn't have that tailing action. Tex barely missed the second one. His appearance last night reminded me a lot of his April 7th meltdown where Granderson took him deep to win the game. First inning of the April 7th game, he was dominant. Second inning he had that same problem with his fastball location, tailing high and to the right. He's starting to remind me of the transition of Ricky Vaughn from Major League 1 to 2. This begs the question as to whether ARod and Thames destroyed the "Eliminator" or the "Terminator" last night.

One has to wonder whether the 2.1 IP on Saturday night in Detroit was causing his problems last night. The fact that he had to pitch those 2 innings are really an indictment of this bullpen. It's pretty clear that we need at least one more shutdown reliever with a high K rate to take the pressure off Bard / Oki / Papelbon. We had Wagner (obviouslyafter the trade) and Saito last season. This season? MDC (K/9 5.0), Ramirez (K/9 of 6.00) , Schoeneweis (K/9 of 8.56) Oki (6.23 K/9 not to mention a tidy 46% LD rate, .453 BAA, K/BB 1.00, 3.33 WHIP in high leverage situations.) When Scott freaking Schoeneweis is your best strikeout option outside your closer and primary setup man your bullpen has problems. Bard is the only member of the bullpen who has a K/9 over 9 (11.32) (he's also walking too many people for a high leverage reliever with a BB/9 of 3.48). I guess this means that a lot of balls are getting put into play and our defense (especially our outfield sans Ellsbury and Cameron) has been helped turn those into outs.

Papelbon was terrible last night but there are some deeper issues with the bullpen that need to be addressed sooner than later.

[Quintanariffic]

After Papelbon's first pitch, I had a feeling he was headed for disaster. It seems like every time he struggles, his fastball tails off high and to the right. It seems like he's overthrowing in order to get more velocity and unable to control and compensates by taking a bit off to regain his ability to locate. The one exception was Texieria's swinging strike on a 96 mph FB right in his wheelhouse. That pitch got to 96 but didn't have that tailing action.

Is this your first year watching Papelbon? When he enjoyed his most success (late 2005 and into the 2006 season), his signature was the riding fastball with late movement. That's not a sign of trouble. The sign of trouble was locating it thigh-high in the middle of the zone at 93-94 mph instead of at the top of the zone or just over at 95-96 mph.

[EP Sox Fan]

Is this your first year watching Papelbon? When he enjoyed his most success (late 2005 and into the 2006 season), his signature was the riding fastball with late movement. That's not a sign of trouble. The sign of trouble was locating it thigh-high in the middle of the zone at 93-94 mph instead of at the top of the zone or just over at 95-96 mph.

No, I've been watching Papelbon since he came for the first time in 2005. I am familiar with his riding fastball that prompted his early run of success. My impression of the difference between the that fastball and those thrown last night is where it's riding to. My recollection is that the early version of the riding fastball had almost vertical movement (with little to no tailing action) and he was usually able to control where it was going. Last night's was more of a tailing fastball that moved up and into the right handed batters box. Rightly or wrongly, I have come to associate that type of movement as overthrowing or out-of-whack mechanics. I may very well be wrong and I'd be curious to see a comparison of Pitch FX data from 2006 and 2007 with last night.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Maybe Papelbon left his good fastball in Detroit, when he threw 2 1/3 high-leverage innings on Saturday night. After one day of rest, he didn't have anything last night.

Other possibilities for his suckage: he had one of his migraines, he didn't get any sleep due to a crying one-month old baby, or most likely, he just had a shit night against a good team who knows him very well.

Or, perhaps, he is really not the pitcher he was a couple of years ago. He's not throwing strikes (career-low 49.5 Zone%), and when he does, he's not missing bats (career-high 89% Z-Contact). The result is a meh 6.63 K/9 and a godawful 4.26 BB/9, which combine for an eye-poppingly uncharacteristic 1.56 K/BB. His BABIP of .202 is masking these trends to some degree, but what happens when some of those balls start finding gaps?

In short, he is just not a very good pitcher so far this year (Fangraphs has his value at -2.2 RAR). Maybe this is all early-season gunk that he's going to work through. But so far, he looks to me like a guy who's lucky to be just mediocre.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Maybe Papelbon left his good fastball in Detroit, when he threw 2 1/3 high-leverage innings on Saturday night. After one day of rest, he didn't have anything last night.

One has to wonder whether the 2.1 IP on Saturday night in Detroit was causing his problems last night. The fact that he had to pitch those 2 innings are really an indictment of this bullpen.

2.1 innings on Saturday was 26 pitches. That's not really a large number of pitches for Papelbon. He's gone back to back games with close to that number and been effective this year (april 23 threw 23 pitches, then 18 the next night in back to back saves).

The fact he had to pitch 2+ innings on Saturday night was due to an extra inning game, and not wanting to have to use Schoeneweis and Ramirez any earlier than absolutely necessary. And that his first 4 outs were very efficient (11 pitches), so it made sense to bring him back out for the 10th inning.

[EP Sox Fan]

Is this your first year watching Papelbon? When he enjoyed his most success (late 2005 and into the 2006 season), his signature was the riding fastball with late movement. That's not a sign of trouble. The sign of trouble was locating it thigh-high in the middle of the zone at 93-94 mph instead of at the top of the zone or just over at 95-96 mph.

In my last post I indicated that I would be curious to see Pitch F/x data on Papelbon between now and back when he was dominant. I was so curious, I decided to see if there was something I could find on my own. Here's an interesting look at some Pitch F/x data on Papelbon that seems to show the difference in fastball performance I was alluding to in my earlier post. I pulled Papelbon's 2007 game log (Brooks didn't have any data in 2006 on their site) and pulled the date from his appearance from 8/26/07 vs. the White Sox because it was available and Paps had a good night going 1IP and striking our the side. (I am aware that this type of analysis is not perfect or even preferred but it seemed to be a logical way to seeing the difference between his previous success and now) and compared it to last night's Hindenburg-esque meltdown in the Bronx.

vs. White Sox 8-26-07

and

Baseball uber fail v. MFY 5-17-10


The first thing you notice, as you mentioned, is the dramatic difference in velocity. In the 2007 appearance, he topped out at almost 98mph and no FB was below 95. Last night he was all over the place, topping out at 96 mph for a swinging strike on Tex and was generally between 91 and 94. I completely agree with you that the difference in velocity contributed to his poor performance. However, the data shows quite a difference between the horizontal and vertical movement as well. As you indicated, there was a riding quality to his FB in 2007 with a horizontal movement mostly clustered between the -10 and -5 inch marker and a significant vertical movement consistently between 10-15 inches. Last night? His horizontal movement was consistently around -10 inches and his vertical movement was significantly different, mostly between 5-10 inches. Another interesting difference is the release point. In the 2007 appearance, his release point was consistently just above the 5 foot mark. Last night, it was at 6 feet.

Now, contrast last night with his May 4 appearance vs. the Angels:

The first thing that jumped out at me was the release point, it was slightly lower than last night's. There is also a difference in velocity, vertical movement (he had 4 pitches above the 10 inch mark for vertical movement vs. none for last night) and horizontal movement (he had more horizontal movement last night, which presumably made it difficult to locate his fastball).

One final look at another sample: 5/15/10 vs. Detroit 2.1IP, 1H, 2K

Release point is closer to last night's but to the untrained eye, it appears that he got better results when it was just under the 6 foot mark. The real obvious distinction is the velocity, he was consistently between 94-96 in Detroit. He also had consistently more vertical movement and less horizontal movement in his Detroit appearance.

Obviously, this is an imperfect analysis as it relies on randomly generated snapshots in performance. A very tentative conclusion can be made that he was simply tired last night which cause him to overthrow and/or alter his mechanics enough to cause the wildly inconsistent pitch-by-pitch results. However, his low K/9 and high BB/9 rate suggests that there are deeper problems than just being tired after throwing 26 pitches over 2+ innings on Saturday night.

[Frisbetarian]

2.1 innings on Saturday was 26 pitches. That's not really a large number of pitches for Papelbon. He's gone back to back games with close to that number and been effective this year (april 23 threw 23 pitches, then 18 the next night in back to back saves).

The fact he had to pitch 2+ innings on Saturday night was due to an extra inning game, and not wanting to have to use Schoeneweis and Ramirez any earlier than absolutely necessary. And that his first 4 outs were very efficient (11 pitches), so it made sense to bring him back out for the 10th inning.

26 pitches is not that much, but getting up and down 3 times when you are not accustomed to doing so can be more taxing on the arm than a mid 20 pitch single inning. I thought Papelbon would get the night off, and was surprised when Tito gave a fully rested Wakefield the hook after 29 pitches.

[irinmike]

I don't need stats to tell me that Papelbon is being hit more frequently between the occasional K, nor that he has trouble locating his bread and butter fast ball. Sure he has only blown one save, and last year statistically he got out of many self imposed jams. However he struggled mightily on many occasions, even when he came in to a clean ninth inning. He is what he is, whether he was kept awake by a crying baby the night before he pitched, or shook off multiple catchers signs. And what he is in 2010 is NOT what he was a few years ago.

So what to do is the question, because I doubt this is the last time this season we will be squirming in our seats as he tries to navigate through a self imposed minefield.

[trekfan55]

The souting report was out on him. The Yankees know him very very well. It's one thing when you know a Mariano Rivera cutter is coming, it's quite another when you know a fastball is.

Thames interview in Sporscenter was quite telling: He was asked (more like told) that he was sitting dead red on fastball and he clearly said that he did not want to miss the first pitch fastball. When a team is well coached and they know what to expect, they will make you pay. That being said, after Gardner got on and Teixeira barely missed next, the pitching coach should have been out and telling him not to throw the fastball anymore.

[Savin Hillbilly]

The souting report was out on him. The Yankees know him very very well. It's one thing when you know a Mariano Rivera cutter is coming, it's quite another when you know a fastball is.

Thames interview in Sporscenter was quite telling: He was asked (more like told) that he was sitting dead red on fastball and he clearly said that he did not want to miss the first pitch fastball. When a team is well coached and they know what to expect, they will make you pay. That being said, after Gardner got on and Teixeira barely missed next, the pitching coach should have been out and telling him not to throw the fastball anymore.

I don't understand this. Wouldn't a hitter always be looking for a first-pitch fastball from Papelbon? He throws 80% fastballs anyway, and probably throws the fastball on the first pitch even more than that, 90+% of the time. So if "sitting dead red" on the first pitch was all it took to tee off on him, he'd have been out of the majors years ago.

Those fastballs were hit not because they were expected, but because they were poorly located, and Papelbon no longer throws hard enough to get away with that.

[trekfan55]

I don't understand this. Wouldn't a hitter always be looking for a first-pitch fastball from Papelbon? He throws 80% fastballs anyway, and probably throws the fastball on the first pitch even more than that, 90+% of the time. So if "sitting dead red" on the first pitch was all it took to tee off on him, he'd have been out of the majors years ago.

Those fastballs were hit not because they were expected, but because they were poorly located, and Papelbon no longer throws hard enough to get away with that.

Well yes. That's kind of the point here. No fastball, why would he try to locate one to Thames when he is looking for it and he knows or should know that on that particular day he is not fooling anyone. As nailbiting as it was, compare last night's to tonight's performance, night and day.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Time to bump this.

Papelbon's up to 1.8 HR allowed per 9 innings this year, triple his rate last year. 13.6% of his fly balls allowed have gone out of the park, again almost triple his rate from last year. Fangraphs has his xFIP at 4.79. His K rate is way down from previous years, his BB rate is way up. And he's doing this while only allowing a .235 BABIP, which is much lower than his BABIPs from '08 and '09.

His WAR is -0.3. Over the last 3 years his K/BB rate has gone from 9.63 to 3.17 to 2.08.

There's a reckoning coming and that right soon. He's giving every indication that he's no longer an elite reliever. Everything is trending the wrong way, and this year it doesn't appear that messing with his mechanics is the culprit. He just stinks.

Anecdotally, his meltdown last night cost the Sox what should have been a really stirring win against a great pitcher. (Come to think of it, his other blown save, against NYY, was similar in fashion).

What's the Sox' next step here? Does Tito stick with this guy despite his increasing ineffectiveness? Does Theo look at the rate stats and his salary and try to move him at this year's deadline?

[bosockboy]

Time to bump this.

Papelbon's up to 1.8 HR allowed per 9 innings this year, triple his rate last year. 13.6% of his fly balls allowed have gone out of the park, again almost triple his rate from last year. Fangraphs has his xFIP at 4.79. His K rate is way down from previous years, his BB rate is way up. And he's doing this while only allowing a .235 BABIP, which is much lower than his BABIPs from '08 and '09.

His WAR is -0.3. Over the last 3 years his K/BB rate has gone from 9.63 to 3.17 to 2.08.

There's a reckoning coming and that right soon. He's giving every indication that he's no longer an elite reliever. Everything is trending the wrong way, and this year it doesn't appear that messing with his mechanics is the culprit. He just stinks.

Anecdotally, his meltdown last night cost the Sox what should have been a really stirring win against a great pitcher. (Come to think of it, his other blown save, against NYY, was similar in fashion).

What's the Sox' next step here? Does Tito stick with this guy despite his increasing ineffectiveness? Does Theo look at the rate stats and his salary and try to move him at this year's deadline?

There just isn't any way he is traded during the season....he's had a couple of awful blown saves, but he's much better than any other reliever we have not named Bard. We need another top setup arm, not subtract from what we have.

[yecul]

The thing to do is trade Papelbon and then re-sign Billy Wagner. Lower salary, bridge to Bard (Wagner won't need >2 years), and avoid the time bomb.

Oh. You mean now, not what should have been done.

What is to be done? Cross your fingers. The key point is his save percentage. The team is well aware of his diminished effectiveness, but he's still getting the job done. Francona's managing style is to have set roles and convince everyone that they are the best at what they do. Demoting Papelbon without a real clear team impact to base it on is not going to fly. At the end of the day, he only has 2 BS. Note that I don't mean that as a negative on Francona. He's proven that this approach is largely correct. IMO, it won't pay off in this particular case.

Besides, the pen is so shallow that he's either going to walk the tightrope in the 9th or walk the tightrope in the 7-8th. The latter is preferable as you can life a struggling reliever or play match-ups, but it's still hardly ideal.

Edit -- And to build on SJH's post... some visuals. I like graphs.





The real problem is that our eyes don't betray the numbers. The numbers are bad, but so is what we see on the screen.

Edited by yecul, 24 June 2010 - 07:48 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Time to bump this.

Papelbon's up to 1.8 HR allowed per 9 innings this year, triple his rate last year. 13.6% of his fly balls allowed have gone out of the park, again almost triple his rate from last year. Fangraphs has his xFIP at 4.79. His K rate is way down from previous years, his BB rate is way up. And he's doing this while only allowing a .235 BABIP, which is much lower than his BABIPs from '08 and '09.

There's a lot of things to be concerned about; but keep in mind that we are talking about 29 innings here. His HR rate (which we all know can be real variable year to year for starters- never mind relievers) was 1.24 less than 12 hours ago. Now it's 1.82. Not that long ago, his BB/K ratio was 1/1, now it's 1/2. He had been due for a bad outing, and he got one. Is he as good as he was - of course not, but that was a pretty high bar and there was really only one direction to trend. There's certainly some concerns, but to suggest that his performance in 29 innings this yaer (and of course, his blown save last year) is that the Red Sox should now look to trade him or demote him seems over-reactionary. It's not as if he's been Brad Lidge '08.

The thing to do is trade Papelbon and then re-sign Billy Wagner. Lower salary, bridge to Bard (Wagner won't need >2 years), and avoid the time bomb.

Oh. You mean now, not what should have been done.

What teams were willing to give up a lot for Papelbon when a guy like Wagner was available on the market? Wagner would have had to re-sign with the Sox (who knows if he wanted to), and then the Sox would have had to trade Papelbon despite having very little leverage. Plus they would have lost those precious draft picks, right?

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 24 June 2010 - 08:28 AM.

[yecul]

Did anyone see that Rudy was the last poster in this thread and not know what well he was going to draw from?

Trading Papelbon would not be about netting a big return, but to improve the team. The performance risk was greater than the risk of missing out on future gains (either through performance or improved trade value).

Besides, if his trade value was diminished last year due to his performance and market conditions, what will this offsesason bring? When the time comes for him to depart as a free agent will you even be able to offer him arbitration to get the picks?

As for his overall performance, this is a Red Sox team with World Series aspirations. He is a fine closer for the regular season and has largely gotten the job done. Heck, much worse pitchers have racked up lots of saves before. But in the playoffs do you want him to finishing games? I don't.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Trading Papelbon would not be about netting a big return, but to improve the team. The performance risk was greater than the risk of missing out on future gains (either through performance or improved trade value).

You didn't address my question. What teams would have been willing to give up a lot of assets for Papelbon when guys like Wagner were available as free agents?

Also, How would moving Papelbon have made this year's Red Sox team better? Curious to hear the argument behind that.

Besides, if his trade value was diminished last year due to his performance and market conditions, what will this offsesason bring? When the time comes for him to depart as a free agent will you even be able to offer him arbitration to get the picks?

Sure. The Sox were able to offer Wagner arbitration and got picks- and he was old and coming off major surgery. I think that teams will offer Papelbon a multi-year deal when he's a FA. He's still a fairly good pitcher, no?

As for his overall performance, this is a Red Sox team with World Series aspirations. He is a fine closer for the regular season and has largely gotten the job done. Heck, much worse pitchers have racked up lots of saves before. But in the playoffs do you want him to finishing games? I don't.

Because he's blown one fucking save in his playoff career? And two saves this season? I just don't get this fascination with running Papelbon out of town that seems to have permeated this board over the past year or so. Do you really expect Dan Bard to not blow save opportunities? What exactly do we want out of our players - perfection?

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Because he's blown one fucking save in his playoff career? And two saves this season? I just don't get this fascination with running Papelbon out of town that seems to have permeated this board over the past year or so. Do you really expect Dan Bard to not blow save opportunities? What exactly do we want out of our players - perfection?

Don't minimize the playoff meltdown: he blew the save in an elimination game in the playoffs (basically responsible for 5 runs) and deserves full criticism for that.

Do you not see the trends all going in the wrong direction? Forget blown saves and just look at the graphs yecul posted: he's allowing more contact and striking out fewer guys and his control is awful and it's gotten worse and worse and worse over the past three years. He started from a ridiculously high level, so such regression hasn't yet rendered him useless, but unless he changes things around it will quite soon. That's what people are concerned about: it's not the blown saves, it's the overall level of his pitching which has become much worse over the course of 18 months or so.

[ToxicSmed]

Trading Papelbon would not be about netting a big return, but to improve the team.

But that's the thing. I'm not sure what could happen with a Papelbon trade that would improve the team. Assuming that Bard is a superior pitcher now, losing Papelbon makes the team worse. As a result, there has to be a return in order to improve the team. That is, of course, unless you assume that Papelbon is becoming a below-replacement-level relief pitcher, which seems unlikely.