324 replies to this topic

[Savin Hillbilly]

Small sample size acknowledged...but Jed Lowrie is currently 2nd in the AL for P/PA for all hitters that have seen over 200 pitches this season. (4.48)
He certainly has been a pleasant surprise and a welcome addition to the lineup. I have really been enjoying his at bats this yr.

He's always looked like a good player when healthy. Hopefully he'll be healthy for a good long while now. I'd love to see him take a run at Scutaro's job next spring.

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

Mets release Alex Cora

I hope Cora gets picked up by the Red Sox...as the new 3B coach.

[Quintanariffic]

Small sample size acknowledged...but Jed Lowrie is currently 2nd in the AL for P/PA for all hitters that have seen over 200 pitches this season. (4.48)
He certainly has been a pleasant surprise and a welcome addition to the lineup. I have really been enjoying his at bats this yr.

But..but Jed Lowrie has never proven anything! Grumble grumble.

Sincerely,

People who were apparently asleep for the 2008 season and Lowrie's entire ml career


IOW, this shouldn't be a surprise at all. The kid has plus plate discipline and plus power for a MI. He's not the most graceful fielder in the world, but he's certainly competent at 2B, SS and 3B and can apparently hold down 1B every so often too. Lowrie is next year's Bill Hall with a better OBP and better IF defense.

[SoxFanSince57]

...The kid has plus plate discipline and plus power for a MI. He's not the most graceful fielder in the world, but he's certainly competent at 2B, SS and 3B and can apparently hold down 1B every so often too. Lowrie is next year's Bill Hall with a better OBP and better IF defense.

Like you I am surprised by the recurrent surprise concerning Jed Lowrie (I guess injuries do that). I think your post nails it. Lowrie has the inside track of playing all four IF positions for the Sox for a number of years and I will be disappointed if Tito doesn't give him a lot of starts and ABs in each of these positions.

I was scared forever by the folly of '78 when players were penciled in the lineup until their bodies broke down, so I am particularly bullish at giving the bench plenty of playing time over the course of the season. Independent of filling in for injured players, Lowrie should have a robust role as a super-sub for years to come.

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 07 August 2010 - 02:20 PM.

[Rustjive]

While looking through the topics/posts from earlier this season, I happened across some discussions on the offense and bench that I'd like to offer a retrospective on:

To date, the bench (non-starters) has put up a line of .236/.306/.402/.708 (1264 PAs, 1862 PAs pace), while the starters (defined by opening day lineup) are .286/.360/.484/.844 (3054 PAs, 4498 PAs pace). The starter/bench split has been 71/29, while the projections had it anywhere from 84/16 to 80/20 (ZiPs - 81.6/18.4). The projection systems covered in this thread had the starting 9 at

.283/.363/.460 (3-2-1, 5351 total PAs)
.264/.371/.507 (Cairo, 5354 total PAs)
.258/.352/.498 (Fan Projections, 5420 total PAs)

The injuries on offense have cost the Sox about 20 runs (I have 587 scored, an 888 run pace, on the 81.6/18.4 split based on the slash lines up to this point, vs 567 actual). Based on pythag then, the Red Sox would still be in 3rd place in the AL East, but only back by 2 in the WC instead of 4/4.5 (although the Rays and MFYs are both underperforming their xW/L by a game).

[JMDurron]

While looking through the topics/posts from earlier this season, I happened across some discussions on the offense and bench that I'd like to offer a retrospective on:

To date, the bench (non-starters) has put up a line of .236/.306/.402/.708 (1264 PAs, 1862 PAs pace), while the starters (defined by opening day lineup) are .286/.360/.484/.844 (3054 PAs, 4498 PAs pace). The starter/bench split has been 71/29, while the projections had it anywhere from 84/16 to 80/20 (ZiPs - 81.6/18.4). The projection systems covered in this thread had the starting 9 at

.283/.363/.460 (3-2-1, 5351 total PAs)
.264/.371/.507 (Cairo, 5354 total PAs)
.258/.352/.498 (Fan Projections, 5420 total PAs)

The injuries on offense have cost the Sox about 20 runs (I have 587 scored, an 888 run pace, on the 81.6/18.4 split based on the slash lines up to this point, vs 567 actual). Based on pythag then, the Red Sox would still be in 3rd place in the AL East, but only back by 2 in the WC instead of 4/4.5 (although the Rays and MFYs are both underperforming their xW/L by a game).

Factor in the injuries on defense (Ellsbury to Hermida, Cameron to McDonald/Patterson, Pedroia to Hall for a while, Youkilis to Lowell), plus Matsuzaka and Beckett, and I suspect you get to a playoff spot, if not the division lead. I know that the math isn't objectively available to do that, but I think the worst part of the injuries has been the damage done to the run prevention side of the ledger.

Edited by JMDurron, 07 August 2010 - 03:32 PM.

[Quintanariffic]

Like you I am surprised by the recurrent surprise concerning Jed Lowrie (I guess injuries do that). I think your post nails it. Lowrie has the inside track of playing all four IF positions for the Sox for a number of years and I will be disappointed if Tito doesn't give him a lot of starts and ABs in each of these positions.

I was scared forever by the folly of '78 when players were penciled in the lineup until their bodies broke down, so I am particularly bullish at giving the bench plenty of playing time over the course of the season. Independent of filling in for injured players, Lowrie should have a robust role as a super-sub for years to come.

Agreed. There's no reason he shouldn't get 400 ABs next year in a super-sub capacity, and for close to the ml minimum at that. In addition, should things just not work out as Theo hopes in terms of filling the 3B hole this off-season, you always have Lowrie to fall back on as a Bill Mueller type option. In this offense, you just need to kep the train moving along, and there's no reason to believe Lowrie can't put up something along the lines of a .280/.360/.440 line, if healthy.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Any reason why Lowrie can't be the starting SS wirh Scutaro as the utility infielder? Granted, what happens with Beltre will dictate what follows, but guven perfect health to all, I'd like to see more AB's for Jed and fewer for Marco. Can't believe I'm saying this,but bringing Hall back wouldn't be terrible.

[BoSox Rule]

Something is happening in the NL that hasn't happened for a long time. Josh Johnson currently leads the National League in WAR. Pujols is far out of the race for the lead so it is going to be the first time somebody not named Albert Pujols or Barry Bonds topped the league in WAR since Helton in 2000. Pujols has had the most WAR in the NL 5 years in a row and 6 out of 7. Of course Bonds lead in 2001, 2002, and 2004.

[drtooth]

Sox may catch a much needed break in closing on Tampa as Both Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis are having shoulder discomfort. Jeremy Hellickson can fill in for one of them but I'm not sure Andy Sonnanstine can be a long term answer if either/both of them have problems (Niemann had a history of arm trouble in the minors). With Shields being very inconsistent, that leaves Price and Garza holding up the rotation.

[Shelterdog]

Sox may catch a much needed break in closing on Tampa as Both Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis are having shoulder discomfort. Jeremy Hellickson can fill in for one of them but I'm not sure Andy Sonnanstine can be a long term answer if either/both of them have problems (Niemann had a history of arm trouble in the minors). With Shields being very inconsistent, that leaves Price and Garza holding up the rotation.

And now that their starting pitchers are getting a little hurt, all of the sudden they're coming to earth.

It's not that much of a break. Their pre-season starting five pitchers have made all but one start so far this season; that's absurd.

[MoGator71]

Any reason why Lowrie can't be the starting SS wirh Scutaro as the utility infielder? Granted, what happens with Beltre will dictate what follows, but guven perfect health to all, I'd like to see more AB's for Jed and fewer for Marco. Can't believe I'm saying this,but bringing Hall back wouldn't be terrible.

I've thought that as well. Jed's issue has always been health; if he's healthy I think I prefer his offense and defense to Scutaro's.

[CaptainLaddie]

And now that their starting pitchers are getting a little hurt, all of the sudden they're coming to earth.

It's not that much of a break. Their pre-season starting five pitchers have made all but one start so far this season; that's absurd.

Hmm, didn't post.

What I meant to say was the 2004 Red Sox starting 5 made 157 of 162 possible starts -- Kim got 3 and Alvarez and Astascio each got 1.

Edited by CaptainLaddie, 08 August 2010 - 06:50 PM.

[cwright]

Pedroia being interviewed on Baseball Tonight a couple of minutes ago:
"My goal is to get back by the start of the next homestand."

[Rudy Pemberton]

At what point does Beckett start taking some Lackey level heat for the poundings the Yankees have administered to him in the last few years? Josh's last good start vs the MFY came as a Marlin.

[Paul M]

Beckett clearly looks defeated/baffled when he's facing the Yankees this year (already has made 4 starts out of 12 which is pretty rough)though his ERA from 2007-2009 was 4.38 vs. NY which is more than acceptable. This year though he's made 5 starts and they've all featured pretty much the same result with Beckett not able to get through 6 innings and tons of hits. Every year with the Sox though he's had at least one very good start vs. NY so it's not like he can't do it. Last year

[Plympton91]

I think it's really just a case of the Yankees supremely talented, dedicated and disciplined hitters doing well against pitchers they are seeing four and five times a season over multiple seasons. Yankees pitchers used to do worse against the really good Red Sox lineups of 2003 - 2007 than they did against the rest of the league, too. Papelbon and Rivera are both worse against the rivalry than they are anywhere else as well.

Starting a different strain of this thread, J.D. Drew is not stepping up his game the way the Red Sox need him to. His season stats are looking extemely pedestrian these days. I wonder how much that has to do with the minor injuries he was playing through while the entire outfield was a mash unit. It might make sense to give him some back-to-back days off now that you've got a full contingent of outfielders again.

[cwright]

Since returning, Ellsbury is now 0-16 at the major league level (with one walk).
His last hit was on May 23, and he is actually 0 for his last 23.

Meanwhile...
Scutaro is 3 for his last 25 (1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K).

Drew is 3 for 24 in August (1 2B, 4 BB, 6 K)

Hall is 3 for 15 in August (1 HR, 0 BB, 5 K)

McDonald is 4 for his last 26 (2 2B, 5 BB, 8 K)

Cash is...well, I don't think it counts as slumping when you're hitting at usual levels, but he's 5 for his last 32 (1 2B, 1 BB, 9 K)

Even Victor isn't hitting at his usual levels, but that's probably to be expected after his thumb issues.

[mt8thsw9th]

Josh's last good start vs the MFY came as a Marlin.

Well, this isn't true, but good rant.

[Paul M]

Not sure if this is updated through tonight, but since the All-Star game the Red Sox have scored 88 runs in 23 games. Pre-All star Game 481 runs in 88 games. Good news is pitching staff has been significantly better in this period, but the offense was due to regress but they have basically collapsed. Yes, they have been beset by injuries but that is still a big drop in production. Part of this is related to opponents but they have been stymied by all types of pitchers and in all parks.

2nd half:

Ortiz 787 (945 first half, so relatively big decline)
Martinez 731
Scutaro 702 (more importantly paltry 302 OBP, which is 46 points less than 1st half)
Drew 645 (only 328 slg and this almost 150 points down from first half)

Hermida, Ellsbury, Patterson, McDonald, and Cash less than replacement level in their 150 ABs)

So, Pedroia back will help but the top of the line-up has to get going, fast.

[TomRicardo]

Why is Kevin Cash still on this roster? He does nothing right. Nothing, he can't call a game, he can't throw out runner, he has trouble fielding, can't run, can't hit, Hell he even has trouble keeping pitches in front of him. Why is he on the roster still?

[Paul M]

My eyes may have been playing tricks on me or I haven't etched Beckett's delivery in my head enough, but is it possible to compare his 2003, 2007, 2009, and current release points? It seemed to me that he was throwing from a fairly low angle last night and getting different action on the ball. I assume it is natural for pitchers to do this as they get older since they rely less on pure heat/4-seamers, but has this been gradual or is this all a mirage of new camera angles, etc.?

[StupendousMan]

My eyes may have been playing tricks on me or I haven't etched Beckett's delivery in my head enough, but is it possible to compare his 2003, 2007, 2009, and current release points? It seemed to me that he was throwing from a fairly low angle last night and getting different action on the ball. I assume it is natural for pitchers to do this as they get older since they rely less on pure heat/4-seamers, but has this been gradual or is this all a mirage of new camera angles, etc.?

I didn't have time for any comprehensive effort, but here's a little figure
showing Beckett's release point, as measured by Pitch/FX, from one game
each in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010. The 2010 game is last night's effort.



As you can see, the release point in 2010 is higher and farther to the
left than the other locations; note that the 2007 location is much
closer to the middle of the graph, as well as being a bit lower.

Let's see ... this suggests that his arm is now swinging wider, but
also that he's releasing the ball at a higher location. Hmmm. That
doesn't make much sense. Probably I ought to do a more careful comparison
of locations, using only games played in, say, Boston, in order to
control for offsets from park to park.

Sorry that I don't have time to do that today -- perhaps someone
else could do it?

[Paul M]

Thanks for the quick work--faster than expected. I guess there might be something worth further exploration, right? I guess my immediate reaction watching was this Josh Beckett looks different to me but I don't know if Beckett constantly changes angles year-to-year or even start-to-start or if this is a result of some injuries the last 3 years, or something else. Some pitchers seem to be the same at 22 and 32 or even 42, but I see Beckett as all over the place from his days in Florida to now. But, I'd much rather rely on empirical evidence and not personal observations.

[czar]

Thanks for the quick work--faster than expected. I guess there might be something worth further exploration, right? I guess my immediate reaction watching was this Josh Beckett looks different to me but I don't know if Beckett constantly changes angles year-to-year or even start-to-start or if this is a result of some injuries the last 3 years, or something else. Some pitchers seem to be the same at 22 and 32 or even 42, but I see Beckett as all over the place from his days in Florida to now. But, I'd much rather rely on empirical evidence and not personal observations.

We actually had an interesting discussion about this (and the subsequent biases in using pF/X for this purpose) a couple months ago after Beckett's first NYY implosion (here, most pF/X stuff starts 2nd page in). I took a quick look (similar to SM above) at his release points but only looked at 2 years (not 4) and took 6 starts from each year (as opposed to 1).

I did a quick eyeball check of the Fangraphs release point charts from 2007 and 2010, and there are some big differences. Pitchfx data from 2007 is spotty and has lots of errors, but I think the release point data are cleaner than (for example) pitch ID and velocity. Beckett's motion is much less compact now -- the release points are not necessarily any higher, but they are much wider = farther from the pitching rubber. He's not the same pitcher in motion or results. Also, Beckett's curve tends to be released from a higher point than the rest of his pitches, and that may be one of the ways in which he tips his pitches.

If the release height is similar but the horizontal split isn't, is it possible he's moved laterally on the rubber? I merely suggest this because making the delivery more/less compact typically is associated with changing elbow flex and angle; both of which were very big deals for my pitching coaches in HS/college ball; I assume moreso for professional ball players. If he's using the same spot on the rubber and messing with his release point, that means something is going on between his hand and his torso with regard to his arm kinetics. This is typically a red huge flag for pitching coaches and trainers so therefore I find it unlikely his mechanics are way off in 2010 without someone catching on (providing it's not a "Craig Hansen treatment" plan).

I'd also question A) how significant his arm slot difference is cumulatively in 2010 and similarly B) how much any pF/X camera bias (or natural game-to-game variability) can deceive us in thinking something has changed that really hasn't. For example, I see way more start-to-start variability within the years than I see between the actual years themselves.

Here's his 2010 arm slots (first 4 starts).



Here's his first 6 games in 2008 (pF/X data).



I'll leave people to draw their own conclusions. Both loops auto-reset after 3-5 seconds. Sorry for the watermark, I don't have a gif creator on my lab PC so I had to speed download one.

Edited by czar, 09 August 2010 - 12:49 PM.