324 replies to this topic

[SonsOfCharlieZink]

A thread for items in the 2010 season that do not warrant their own thread.

Kevin Thomas notes that three members of the starting rotation are expecting their first baby in August.

Three of the starters will become dads in August. The wives of Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and John Lackey, are all expecting their first baby in August.

Buchholz and his wife Lindsay are due Aug. 11. Lester and his wife Farrah are due around Aug. 18. John and wife Krista (the former Krista Clark, an alumna of Sanford High) are due Aug. 29.

[Pearl Wilson]

Theo on The Baseball Show in response to the question: what are your thoughts about how the 3 new guys have adapted, and the 1 position change Ellsbury center to left?

Theo: So far so good. I don't think there's gonna be much question marks with any of the new players defensively. Ellsbury looks great in Left - I think he's one of the best 1 or 2 left fielders in the game defensively, and Cameron doing his thing, great instincts, always takes the right routes etc.

[Buck Showalter]

Just curious...

Given that the most basic physical ability needed in hitting a baseball is hand-eye coordination...

How many hitters wear glasses / contact lenses.

[OttoC]

I don't think hand-eye coordination requires perfect eyesight. I have something like 20/500 vision without my classes yet I have excellent hand-eye coordination, including hitting a ball. Catching the ball was something else, though.

[reggiecleveland]

I don't like Ellsbury batting lead off. I am not reacting to his bad game. He is likely the 9th best hitter in the lineup and having him get an extra at bat at the end of games is frustrating.

[BucketOBalls]

I don't like Ellsbury batting lead off. I am not reacting to his bad game. He is likely the 9th best hitter in the lineup and having him get an extra at bat at the end of games is frustrating.

Well, pretty much every other obvious option on the Sox(Drew and Pedroia) would start sucking whenever they hit leadoff.

I would have given Scutaro a look here. He hit there in 2009(and had a better OBP than JE). You lose the basestealing, but I'm not sure it matters that much.

Edited by BucketOBalls, 05 April 2010 - 12:08 AM.

[E5 Yaz]

Great photo

http://www.boston.co...x_pregame?pg=10

[seantoo]

Great photo

http://www.boston.co...x_pregame?pg=10

He looks like the Family Guy's Herbert the pervert sporting wood by his pants and all, no? just me?

[grantb]

I don't think hand-eye coordination requires perfect eyesight. I have something like 20/500 vision without my classes yet I have excellent hand-eye coordination, including hitting a ball. Catching the ball was something else, though.

No, but being able to pick up rotation on the ball requires good eyesight. Having poor depth perception makes it difficult to tell where in the zone the ball is crossing the plate.

[OttoC]

No, but being able to pick up rotation on the ball requires good eyesight. Having poor depth perception makes it difficult to tell where in the zone the ball is crossing the plate.

Again, I don't think wearing glasses means you can't have good depth perception. I don't think you are asking the right question and you might find this article interesting:
http://www.baseballr...rticle.php?id=1

[mabrowndog]

Herald

Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia signed a multiyear endorsement contract with New Balance. The Brighton sneaker maker will be Pedroia’s official footwear and off-field apparel provider.

[Miskatonic PhD]

Herald

New Balance makes childrens' sizes?

(Wanted to be the first to say it.)

[SonsOfCharlieZink]

Interesting analysis: Why is Tim Wakefield's 72 mph fastball a "good pitch"? :

Kevin Dame recently debuted his "Paintomatic" system of pitch selection visualization at Hardball Times. One of the findings that he reported as surprising was the fact that his fastball--all 72 mph of it--rates as "filthy" according to FanGraphs' pitch run values.

[MoGator71]

Well, pretty much every other obvious option on the Sox(Drew and Pedroia) would start sucking whenever they hit leadoff.

I would have given Scutaro a look here. He hit there in 2009(and had a better OBP than JE). You lose the basestealing, but I'm not sure it matters that much.

I could see a Scutaro-Drew 1-2 scenario being pretty impressive, but it's a pointless excercise because I don't see Tito moving JE out of that spot unless he starts to really suck.

[Buck Showalter]

Again, I don't think wearing glasses means you can't have good depth perception. I don't think you are asking the right question and you might find this article interesting:
http://www.baseballr...rticle.php?id=1

Otto,

Thanks for the article --- very interesting.

[Buck Showalter]

Good article by David Laurila with me....errh...sorta'

http://www.baseballp...articleid=10459

[SonsOfCharlieZink]

Ellsbury's glove:

It seems Ellsbury's glove was stolen during spring training of 2009. He thought it was gone for good and he borrowed Mark Kotsay's until Kotsay was traded. ...

Before Sunday's game, two officials with Major League Baseball approached Ellsbury with a package bound in bubble wrap. "You got it back," Ellsbury said as he received the black leather glove.

Seems that someone tried to put the glove for sale on E-bay, and MLB retrieved it.

[MoGator71]

Ellsbury's glove:

It was Ruben Rivera.

[TomRicardo]

Ellsbury's glove:

I solved the case.

[Don Buddin]

http://www.theonion....ed-jason,17195/

Love the last line.

[Pxer]

TRic: you'd think he'd learn the first time --computers are easier to hock since serial numbers can just be scratched out.




I feel for the guy, though, he's making only $440K, and has a baby on the way!

Edited by Pxer, 06 April 2010 - 11:25 PM.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

So I was at the ballpark tonight and they ran this feature on the scoreboard on 2010 Red Soz Hall of Fame inductees before Tommy Harper (one of the honorees) came out to throw out the first pitch. Among those honored this year is apparently Don Zimmer! Where is the outrage? How is this possible?

[mabrowndog]

The Sox are moving the Ted Wiliiams statue from outside Gate B, and are planning a new statue inspired by The Teammates.

Herald

The Red Sox yesterday declined to reveal the subjects of the new statue, citing an ongoing city approval process.

But late journalist David Halberstam’s 2003 book, “The Teammates: A Portrait of a Friendship,” profiles the baseball careers of the late Red Sox legend Williams and his former 1940s teammates, Johnny Pesky, Bobby Doerr and the late Dom DiMaggio. It also chronicles Pesky and DiMaggio’s 1,300-mile road trip to see Williams in Florida when he was dying.

Red Sox spokeswoman Susan Goodenow confirmed plans to add “The Teammates” to the artwork at Fenway Park.

“Since the project is still going through the approval process, though, we aren’t in a position to share any materials . . . until that process has been completed and the project is finalized,” she said.

The 8-foot, 6-inch Williams statue depicts the famed slugger holding a bat on one shoulder as he gives his hat to a bald child with cancer, a nod to his dedication to young patients at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute’s Jimmy Fund Clinic.

Created by sculptor Franc Talarico, the 3,380-pound bronze statue has stood on a granite base in front of Gate B of Fenway Park on Van Ness Street since its unveiling in 2004, almost two years after Williams’ death. Both Pesky and Doerr were present at the dedication.

The [Williams] statue will be relocated farther down Van Ness Street, according to documents filed with the Boston Public Improvement Commission.

My guess is that it will resemble the book cover:

[mabrowndog]

Josh Beckett is marrying a rocket scientist.

we hear the Sox starter popped the question to Holly Fisher around Valentine's Day when they attended the Daytona 500 together. ... Future Mrs. Josh ... works as a space-engineering consultant on the West Coast.

Now, it appears that Beckett and his future bride both graduated in 1999 from Spring High School in Spring, Texas. So reunited high school sweethearts? Perhaps. He went into the minor leagues after graduating and she left Texas for Florida's Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University where she graduated with a degree in aeronautical engineering in 2004. While working at Boeing--right out of college--she scored a Master of Science degree in Astronautical Engineering from University of Southern California.

[GoWhalers]

I can only imagine what their dinner conversations are like.

[mabrowndog]

I can only imagine what their dinner conversations are like.

Just conjecture, but I assume the phrase "I don't get paid to make those fucking decisions" works its way into the banter.

[joe dokes]

Just conjecture, but I assume the phrase "I don't get paid to make those fucking decisions" works its way into the banter.

I recall reading something about original Met Jay Hook, who had a gradute degree in engineering. At some point he wrote a paper explaining the physics of the curveball, on which Casey Stengel commented, "too bad his arm can't read." (or something like that. Its Casey, its legend, who knows)

[ookami7m]

According to MLBTradeRumors Ramon A Ramirez (the other one) cleared off the 40 man to drop the Sox to 39. Possibly clearing room for Embree or someone else?

[ScubaSteveAvery]

According to MLBTradeRumors Ramon A Ramirez (the other one) cleared off the 40 man to drop the Sox to 39. Possibly clearing room for Embree or someone else?

Perhaps Daniel Nava is going to get his shot, since Ellsbury is likely headed to the DL? He's currently hitting better than Reddick in Pawtucket, plus given Reddick's quote in the injured OF thread, maybe the front office wants to keep him down there and avoid the injury call-up.

Edited by ScubaSteveAvery, 17 April 2010 - 05:39 PM.

[dbn]

Boston is 4-8 having lost 8 of their last 11 games.

Q: Can a Red Sox team good enough to win a WS have a streak that poor?
A: Yes. The 2004 team lost 8 of 11 from 23 June to 4 July, and the 2007 team also lost 8 of 11 straddling the ASB.

Good idea getting the 3-8 streak out of the way early; now start winning.

Edited by dbn, 18 April 2010 - 05:45 PM.

[mabrowndog]

Theo Epstein will give the keynote address Wednesday morning at Western New England College as part of the YMCA of Greater Springfield's annual fundraising campaign.

More info here

[Cuzittt]

Dwight Evans will be appearing at a Signing and Sighting Event on Wednesday at Mohegan Sun (Shops at Mohegan Sun). 6 pm.

Fred Lynn will be appearing at a Signing and Sighting Event on Thursday at Mohegan Sun. 6 pm.

[Mohegan Sun is Celebrating all things Massachusetts this month. In Non-Red Sox related signings...

Bob Cousy - TODAY at 6 pm

Jasper White and Kelly Tuthill at 5 pm on Wednesday

Bill Walton on Friday at 6 pm

Troy Brown and John Hannah on Saturday at 6pm]

[Lollardfish]

Boston is 4-8 having lost 8 of their last 11 games.

Q: Can a Red Sox team good enough to win a WS have a streak that poor?
A: Yes. The 2004 team lost 8 of 11 from 23 June to 4 July, and the 2007 team also lost 8 of 11 straddling the ASB.

Good idea getting the 3-8 streak out of the way early; now start winning.

Worst starts in "recent" years.

Last year, 2-6, then reeled off 11 straight Ws.

Before that, you have to go back to the immortal year of 1996. Mo Vaughn hit 44 HRs with a line of 326/420/583. Nomar came up for 24 games at the tender age of 22. A man named Roger Clemens started 31 games. The Red Sox started 4-16, then 6-19, on its way to a stellar 85-77 third place record, finishing behind the "first night of the Yankee dynasty" MFY and Orioles.

[Billy R Ford]

Marco Scutaro swung and missed tonight for the first time all season on a 100 MPH fastball by Neftali Feliz in the 9th. It was his 63rd at bat of the season; quite the impressive streak!

[TheYellowDart5]

Marco Scutaro swung and missed tonight for the first time all season on a 100 MPH fastball by Neftali Feliz in the 9th. It was his 63rd at bat of the season; quite the impressive streak!

Scutaro actually had a swinging strike against Texas on Tuesday night. I forget which at-bat, but his streak was snapped last night.

[Billy R Ford]

Scutaro actually had a swinging strike against Texas on Tuesday night. I forget which at-bat, but his streak was snapped last night.

My bad, I'd checked Fangraphs' contact rate stat after he swung and missed tonight and it was still at 100%, I guess they don't update it after every game. Still, ~57 ABs before his first miss then.

[joyofsox]

Mike Lowell, on Scutaro's alertness in tagging and taking second on Drew's fly ball: "Those are the little things that I don't think you can see in the box score, ever."

The "things that don't show up in the box score" has been a pet peeve of mine for awhile. Although Scutaro got 90 feet closer to home plate, the entire play - because of the increase in outs from one to two - dropped the Red Sox's chances of winning the game (according to Fangraphs) from 64.9% to 61.7%. I am assuming that is charged to Drew, but Scutaro's play must be measured somehow.

Maybe the difference in being on first with 2 outs and being on second with two outs? Can anyone help?

[joe dokes]

Mike Lowell, on Scutaro's alertness in tagging and taking second on Drew's fly ball: "Those are the little things that I don't think you can see in the box score, ever."

The "things that don't show up in the box score" has been a pet peeve of mine for awhile. Although Scutaro got 90 feet closer to home plate, the entire play - because of the increase in outs from one to two - dropped the Red Sox's chances of winning the game (according to Fangraphs) from 64.9% to 61.7%. I am assuming that is charged to Drew, but Scutaro's play must be measured somehow.

Maybe the difference in being on first with 2 outs and being on second with two outs? Can anyone help?

Obviously, Lowell was talking about Scutaro, there, not Drew's "contribution" to the play. The correct comparison here is, as you suggest, between man on first, 2 out, and man on second, 2 out. And he's literally correct that it "doesn't" show up in the box score," as Drew doesn't get a sac fly for it. (not suggesting that the 'sac fly' is a good stat, so lets not run there).

[judyb]

Borbom seems about like the same type of thrower as a typical Red Sox CFer. Not sure if Scutaro's done the same thing to Ellsbury or Crisp in the past, but it would not be a surprise.

[cmurphycode]

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html

The run expectancy goes from .251 to .344. Not a big change, which makes sense.

[BucketOBalls]

Mike Lowell, on Scutaro's alertness in tagging and taking second on Drew's fly ball: "Those are the little things that I don't think you can see in the box score, ever."

The "things that don't show up in the box score" has been a pet peeve of mine for awhile. Although Scutaro got 90 feet closer to home plate, the entire play - because of the increase in outs from one to two - dropped the Red Sox's chances of winning the game (according to Fangraphs) from 64.9% to 61.7%. I am assuming that is charged to Drew, but Scutaro's play must be measured somehow.

Maybe the difference in being on first with 2 outs and being on second with two outs? Can anyone help?

From here

Man on first for home, 1-out, tied in extas = .648
Man on second, 2 outs, tied in extras = .636
Man on first for home, 2-out, tied in extras = .585

So Scutaro tagging and moving up was worth +.051, but the second out was worth - .063

Those numbers don't seem to match the fan graphs ones exactly though. ( I think it is bc that database stops in 2006 while fangraphs has continues to accumulate data. Fangraphs gives a lower win expectancy for for a man on second with 2 outs for example. ). I couldn't find the actual fangraphs info, but that seems close.

More evidence that bunting sucks....although we knew that.

Edited by BucketOBalls, 22 April 2010 - 10:41 AM.

[smastroyin]

So Scutaro tagging and moving up was worth +.051, but the second out was worth - .063

Those numbers don't seem to match the fan graphs ones exactly though. ( I think it is bc that database stops in 2006 while fangraphs has continues to accumulate data. Fangraphs gives a lower win expectancy for for a man on second with 2 outs for example. ). I couldn't find the actual fangraphs info, but that seems close.

More evidence that bunting sucks....although we knew that.

Yes but these numbers prove Lowell's point. Scutaro taking the base, while not making up the harm of the out, did come close.

If you presume the out, Scutaro's play has a lot of value, which is Lowell's point. Obviously the play as a whole is not great, but I don't think Lowell was saying that the Sox should try the "sac fly with a runner on first and one out" play, he's just saying that Scutaro with his heads up baserunning added value, and in this case I agree.

[FFCI]

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html

The run expectancy goes from .251 to .344. Not a big change, which makes sense.

To build on Lowell's comment about the significance of the Scutaro tag-up, while the RE increase (.093) may seem insignificant nominally - it, in fact, increased the percentages for a run by 37%.

The successful tag resulted in the "need" for Ron Washington to counter with the intentional walk of Pedroia - done, presumably so that the Rangers could increase their chance of preventing a run or simply not giving up a hit. By walking Pedroia, a career .307 hitter, and facing Youkilis, career .291 - the Rangers lowered the probability of a hit by 5.3%.

That percentage is included to highlight the significance of the tag-up. Baseball managers, players, etc. want any edge that they can get - the 37% edge gained by the tag is very significant (7 times more significant than the intentional walk).

Edited by FFCI, 22 April 2010 - 11:09 AM.

[Eric Van]

To build on Lowell's comment about the significance of the Scutaro tag-up, while the RE increase (.093) may seem insignificant nominally - it, in fact, increased the percentages for a run by 37%.

The successful tag resulted in the "need" for Ron Washington to counter with the intentional walk of Pedroia - done, presumably so that the Rangers could increase their chance of preventing a run or simply not giving up a hit. By walking Pedroia, a career .307 hitter, and facing Youkilis, career .291 - the Rangers lowered the probability of a hit by 5.3%.

That percentage is included to highlight the significance of the tag-up. Baseball managers, players, etc. want any edge that they can get - the 37% edge gained by the tag is very significant (7 times more significant than the intentional walk).

According to the table in The Book and the play log at FanGraphs, the change in Win Expectancy is in fact .045 (.572 to .617), which is equivalent to a .45 change in Run Expectancy, versus the .124 RE increase (I'm using RE data from the last 5 years rather than Tango's 1999-2002 which you were using; the decline in HR makes advancing from 1B to 2B slightly more valuable).

As noted earlier, FanGraphs has got to start splitting out baserunning events from hitting events. They gave the .045 to Drew rather than Scutaro; Drew should have been -.078 instead of -.033. (Last year when Buchholz got thrown out at the plate on Pedroia's double, Pedroia got hammered on WPA). I think I'm going to compile a list of adjustments and post it periodically.

BTW, the break-even point for that advance -- the same as for a SB, of course -- is just 61.5%. Hell of a smart play.

Edited by Eric Van, 22 April 2010 - 12:00 PM.

[FFCI]

According to the table in The Book and the play log at FanGraphs, the change in Win Expectancy is in fact .045 (.572 to .617), which is equivalent to a .45 change in Run Expectancy, versus the .124 RE increase (I'm using RE data from the last 5 years rather than Tango's 1999-2002 which you were using; the decline in HR makes advancing from 1B to 2B slightly more valuable).

As noted earlier, FanGraphs has got to start splitting out baserunning events from hitting events. They gave the .045 to Drew rather than Scutaro. (Last year when Buchholz got thrown out at the plate on Pedroia's double, Pedroia got hammered on WPA). I think I'm going to compile a list of adjustments and post it periodically.

BTW, the break-even point for that advance -- the same as for a SB, of course -- is just 61.5%. Hell of a smart play.

My point was more that the significance of the play can seem minimal when looking at the marginal change in Win Expectancy or Run Expectancy - but when looking at the increase as a percentage increase in RE or WE (whichever statistics one chooses to use) the "measurable" impact of that play can be more truly appreciated.

[Eric Van]

My point was more that the significance of the play can seem minimal when looking at the marginal change in Win Expectancy or Run Expectancy - but when looking at the increase as a percentage increase in RE or WE (whichever statistics one chooses to use) the "measurable" impact of that play can be more truly appreciated.

Not disagreeing with you in the least, just adding more info.

Another way to look at it -- if you could add an .045 WPA event late in every game of the season, you'd win 7 more games! It's the equivalent of adding 73 RS to the season total, way more than the impact of signing the most elite FA.

The wonderful thing about baseball is that team success is made of the accumulation of myriad small advantages like this. It's one of the reasons why all the "batting order really doesn't matter" talk is wrong -- it's just another managerial decision that adds a mere 5 to 10 runs, but teams pay millions for that "mere" advantage. If you start tossing away a 5 run advantage here and a 10 run advantage there, it starts to add up to significant number of wins.

[joe dokes]

As much as I love the numbers and the ability of folks here to work them, I'm not sure there's really any issue over whether its better to have a runner at 1st base or 2nd base with two outs, which is what I thought Lowell's point was, and was what the original question was aimed at. This is one of those plays that doesn't need any numerical quantification.

[joyofsox]

Well, we don't *need* to keep track of anything (batting average, ERA, UZR, whatever), but we do.

I know it's just a saying (the box score thing), and it clearly annoys me to an irrational degree, but no one gets all their baseball info from the little agate-type boxes in the paper. So things like RE and WPA are not in boxes -- big deal, they are being measured and showing up *somewhere*.

It is a dumb cliche -- and I have always seen it as a backhanded (or even unconscious) slap at statheads, in the "intangibles" vein. We don't see these things, they are not noted in the stats, but they exist and are helpful. And these days, that is simply wrong.

If Scutaro is thrown out, it ends the inning. And maybe overall it does lessen the changes of scoring (teams can BBI the next guy and have more chances at a force). Despite that, considering the inning/situation, being safe does have its advantages. It gets the crowd rocking, Borbon is obviously annoyed, Nippert is feeling more pressure ...

[joe dokes]

Well, we don't *need* to keep track of anything (batting average, ERA, UZR, whatever), but we do.

I know it's just a saying (the box score thing), and it clearly annoys me to an irrational degree, but no one gets all their baseball info from the little agate-type boxes in the paper. So things like RE and WPA are not in boxes -- big deal, they are being measured and showing up *somewhere*.

It is a dumb cliche -- and I have always seen it as a backhanded (or even unconscious) slap at statheads, in the "intangibles" vein. We don't see these things, they are not noted in the stats, but they exist and are helpful. And these days, that is simply wrong.

If Scutaro is thrown out, it ends the inning. And maybe overall it does lessen the changes of scoring (teams can BBI the next guy and have more chances at a force). Despite that, considering the inning/situation, being safe does have its advantages. It gets the crowd rocking, Borbon is obviously annoyed, Nippert is feeling more pressure ...

There is no conceivable way that being on 2nd in that situation (2 outs) lessens the chance of scoring.

The bolded sentence would make the relevant comps the increase in the chance of scoring from 2nd (as opposed to 1st) w/2out vs. the chance of being thrown out at 2nd. More like a stolen base analysis. I haven't seen that one done.

My only points were that, in a literal sense, (and likely unintentionally, since I have no sense that Lowell is conversant in sabrmetrics), the Scutaro play doesn't show up in a box score (its not a sac); and that comparing the run or win expectations without assuming the Drew out was why the original poster came up with an overall negative.

As for box scores, about 30 years ago, the Sunday NYTimes ran a box score from a fairly typical, but not simple, game, and asked about 25 questions about the game. Some were easy (Who did Anderson pinch hit for); but some were much harder (which batters did Jones pitch to? who were the 3 batters that Smith walked?) and these were basic box scores. It was a great exercise. I still check box scores.




(edited to try and make a bit more sense)

Edited by joe dokes, 22 April 2010 - 01:20 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

Edes Twitter

Daisuke in rotation Tito confirms No corollary move announced