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Clement's lingering affects
#1
Posted 19 September 2005 - 01:01 AM
That being said, hoping the sox make the playoffs, what exactly is his use on the playoff roster? Do you even give him a start if he continues with his recent display? Is he even remotely usable in the pen, being wild and not having pitched from the Pen all that much and none this season. I know the pitching staff is stretched very thin as it is
You have to figure the Set-In-Stone starters are
Shilling
Wake
Wells
and the Set-In-Stone Pen
Timlin
Myers
Papshmear
Bradford
Now Arroyo will be either or, but if you are to use Arroyo as a starter Clement maybe useless. The one hope could be that Clement could be this post-season's Derek Lowe...
#2
Posted 19 September 2005 - 05:47 AM
In that same span, Schilling has thrown 43.2 innings with a 6.18 ERA, 3 wins, 4 losses.
I'm concerned about Clement down the stretch and he's one of the reasons I'm really not sure the "playoff rotation" question is the pertinent one. Sox gotta get there first. However, Schilling has been a bigger millstone around the team's neck, a bigger obstacle to winning baseball games.
The rotation right now is Wells, Wake and a plague of snakes. Brandon Arroyo's streak of 1 K, 4 BB, 1 R performances is not a sustainable trend, and Clement and Schilling aren't keeping runs off the board.
#3
Posted 19 September 2005 - 06:20 AM
#4
Posted 19 September 2005 - 06:30 AM
#5
Posted 19 September 2005 - 08:06 AM
Edited by fox13weather, 19 September 2005 - 08:06 AM.
#6
Posted 19 September 2005 - 08:06 AM
#7
Posted 19 September 2005 - 08:09 AM
Regardless and to get to my point, with some quality arms coming through our system that could/should be major league ready next year including Paplebon and perhaps Lester, should they look to trade him? We have 4 other starters (Wells, Shill, Arroyo, Wake) and Clement’s got a high salary that could be used elsewhere including resigning Damon or improving our Bullpen, does this move make sense? The free agent pool is thin at SP, but can the Sox even unload this guy and his full salary w/ 3 years remaining? I think they very well could.
#8
Posted 19 September 2005 - 08:25 AM
Regardless and to get to my point, with some quality arms coming through our system that could/should be major league ready next year including Paplebon and perhaps Lester, should they look to trade him? We have 4 other starters (Wells, Shill, Arroyo, Wake) and Clement’s got a high salary that could be used elsewhere including resigning Damon or improving our Bullpen, does this move make sense? The free agent pool is thin at SP, but can the Sox even unload this guy and his full salary w/ 3 years remaining? I think they very well could.
What are they going to really get for him, though? This will be two years in a row that he faded down the stretch. Where would he have value? He's too expensive to be the guy that helps a middling team improve it's pitching (Colorado/Baltimore/Tampa?), and now he seems a little undependable for a near-playoff team trying to make it over the hump (Texas/Arizona). I guess if I were forced to pick, I'd choose Texas as the most likely trade partner. Clement for Adrian Gonzalez? but I think it would also have to involve money.
Really while I am down on Clement I'm not sure the other guys have the ability to fill in his innings. I guess if you have a really good feeling about Papelbon...
Steve
#9
Posted 19 September 2005 - 08:28 AM
Pedro 65.2
Lowe 23.8
Wells 23.6
Clement 18.6
Miller 5.9
#10
Posted 19 September 2005 - 08:34 AM
VORP, 2005
Pedro 65.2
Lowe 23.8
Wells 23.6
Clement 18.6
Miller 5.9
The Pedro descision is one we can argue about. But the Lowe one is not. He is pitching great this year. I just wonder how thenumbers look after you park and NL adjust them.
#11
Posted 19 September 2005 - 08:39 AM
He wasn't pitching that well until he recently made the adjustment to the 3rd base side of the pitching rubber. Before that he was having a poor year, once you take into account facing the pitcher in NL lineups and friendly Chavez Ravine. His ERA on Aug. 21 was 4.20.The Pedro descision is one we can argue about. But the Lowe one is not. He is pitching great this year. I just wonder how thenumbers look after you park and NL adjust them.
He's also still given up a bunch of unearned runs, 23 as of today. So his ERA is just a bit misleading; he's given up a bunch more runs, period, than would appear at first blush.
Edited by Smiling Joe Hesketh, 19 September 2005 - 08:42 AM.
#12
Posted 19 September 2005 - 08:43 AM
The Pedro descision is one we can argue about. But the Lowe one is not. He is pitching great this year. I just wonder how thenumbers look after you park and NL adjust them.
I don't think there is any reason to debate the Pedro decision either. I mean, I guess you could look back to the 2003 offseason and say they should have offered him an extension rather then simply exercising his option. Once they did not do that, I don't think Pedro had much chance of coming back. Once they won the World Series, I thought there was only a microspeck of a chance that Pedro would come back. Once he found a suitable second suitor, I knew there was no chance.
People seem to forget that there are three sides to every free agent decision. The Red Sox side, the player's side, and the competing team's side. People here seemed to have boiled down the Pedro debate to it being all the Red Sox decision and the Red Sox decision alone.
I guess it's an interesting thought exercise in the abstract. But there was more chance of seeing Larry Lucchino singing the opening day national anthem in drag than there was of Pedro coming back...at least onece the Mets got involved.
#13
Posted 19 September 2005 - 08:43 AM
The Pedro descision is one we can argue about. But the Lowe one is not. He is pitching great this year. I just wonder how thenumbers look after you park and NL adjust them.
VORP is park- and league-adjusted, no?
Either way, I can't shake my fist at the decision not to re-sign DLowe. Re-upping him would have been to concentrate on the playoffs and completely ignore the six preceding months in which he was utterly unpredictable.
#14
Posted 19 September 2005 - 08:45 AM
The Pedro descision is one we can argue about. But the Lowe one is not. He is pitching great this year. I just wonder how thenumbers look after you park and NL adjust them.
Lowe started off hot, was mediocre for awhile and is finishing very strongly. His last 5 starts: IP 38.2, H 23, ER 4, BB 8, K 28. That's an ERA under 1, pretty freaking dominant. He's also getting a ton of ground balls in those starts. 68 GB in those 38.2 innings. So I guess its good that he's not here, Edgar wouldn't be able to handle them anyway.
#15
Posted 19 September 2005 - 08:52 AM
#16
Posted 19 September 2005 - 09:01 AM
Clement was hurt in the second half last year and wasn't able to come back. And as you say there is nothing to suggest he is a poor second half pitcher (other than this season I suppose). I still hope he can turn it around. I doubt the line drive off his head has been much of a factor as he pitched poorly for several starts prior.Additionally, I thought of how last year the Cubs lost all confidence in him down the stretch and thought to myself that perhaps he’s a horrible second half pitcher, but his stats do not significantly suggest such a trend.
#17
Posted 19 September 2005 - 09:12 AM
steeenkin' games.
I agree that until the club wins a playoff position talk about rotations etc, etc is just blowing in the wind.
In RE: Derek Lowe
If Lowe had resigned in Boston he sure as hell wouldn't have been boinking that LA reporter. Someone else perhaps...
#18
Posted 19 September 2005 - 09:18 AM
Is it just a coincidence that he was benched at the end of last season for the Cubs while they were making a playoff run?? He pitched horribly down the stretch for the Cubs and they stopped giving him the ball. That is cause for concern.
No it's not a conisidence.
On September 7th, Clement left a game early against Montreal with a neck strain. When he pitched again a week later, he went 6 innings.
He strained his neck again pitching between starts. He was bumped back a day to pitch in a DH and was pulled after feeling tightness in his neck and shoulder after 2.3 innings. This ended his season.
He didn't pitch horribly down the stretch for the Cubs...he was unable to pitch at all really. In the whole month, he threw 208 pitches over 11 innings. He wasn't benched, he was hurt.
#19
Posted 19 September 2005 - 09:41 AM
6 previous starts, IP and Runs
6.2 3 (only 1 runs through 6 ip)
8 4 (2 ER)
5 1 (left the game with a 7-1 lead)
7 3
7 1
6 2
the previous start was his first back from his headache.
Perhaps our bigger problem is that we scraped out 10 runs at home against Oakland.
edit: left a small stat out.
Edited by behindthepen, 19 September 2005 - 09:42 AM.
#20
Posted 19 September 2005 - 09:45 AM
Lowe made an adjustment to his position on the pitching rubber before his start against Houston on August 26, moving to the first-base side. Since then, he has been pitching very well as you note. The consensus is that this helps him pitch inside to left-handed batters as well as presenting a new angle on his sliders to right-handers.Lowe started off hot, was mediocre for awhile and is finishing very strongly. His last 5 starts: IP 38.2, H 23, ER 4, BB 8, K 28.
I'm curious whether he was pitching from that spot in his near-Cy-Young-year.
#21
Posted 19 September 2005 - 09:58 AM
It is rather unsettling that the Cubs removed him late in the season last year.
edit: sorry, just caught URI's post, although it pertains to last year
Edited by Jneen, 19 September 2005 - 10:02 AM.
#22
Posted 19 September 2005 - 10:13 AM
I just don't think that it's because he has a character flaw, or doesn't have testicles, which seems to be the complaint against him due to missing games due to injury last September.
#23
Posted 19 September 2005 - 11:30 AM
http://sports.espn.g...g?playerId=3938
He put up a 3.60 era in Aug, despite giving up 6 runs in 5 inngs in his "comeback" start against KC.
#24
Posted 19 September 2005 - 11:31 AM
People seem to forget that there are three sides to every free agent decision. The Red Sox side, the player's side, and the competing team's side. People here seemed to have boiled down the Pedro debate to it being all the Red Sox decision and the Red Sox decision alone.
This is most certaionly correct, but I would contend that the Red Sox did in fact have a good shot at signing Pedro if their first offer was competitive and somewhat market for a staff ace coming out of the block. When the Red Sox offerred him 2 years at $20 million, the game was over. Not only was Pedro never going to sign a 2 year deal, but the money, which was very short for a pitcher of Pedro's quality, was also a non-starter. The Red Sox moved to 3 years way too late in the process, and when the Mets got really involved, they had no shot. I contend that if the first offer to Pedro was 3 years, $33 Million, it would have produced a reservoir of at least honest negotiation. The 2 year offer was a pretty clear signal to him that the Red Sox were prepared to go in another direction.
IMO, that decision, though defensible, will cost the Red Sox the World Series this year.
#25
Posted 19 September 2005 - 11:31 AM
#26
Posted 19 September 2005 - 11:57 AM
He's had plenty of random awful starts that he immediately bounced back from. I don't see two making a trend.
EDIT: And I think a look at his gamelog shows that the title of this thread is unjustified...
Edited by Todd Benzinger, 19 September 2005 - 12:02 PM.
#27
Posted 19 September 2005 - 04:31 PM
This is most certaionly correct, but I would contend that the Red Sox did in fact have a good shot at signing Pedro if their first offer was competitive and somewhat market for a staff ace coming out of the block. . . I contend that if the first offer to Pedro was 3 years, $33 Million, it would have produced a reservoir of at least honest negotiation. The 2 year offer was a pretty clear signal to him that the Red Sox were prepared to go in another direction.
I think $33 would also have been too low. The Red Sox last offer to Pedro should have been their first offer --- 3 years at $40.5 million plus an option for $15 million or a $1.5 million buyout.
John Henry has said on numerous occasions that he doesn't believe in negotiating. That you communicate to your target that you are making your best offer right up front and leave it at that. They obviously did not do this in Pedro's case, indicating that either they 1) badly misread the market or 2) didn't want him.
#28
Posted 19 September 2005 - 04:54 PM
I hate to speculate in one sense; but in another, it seems far fairer -- if one is looking for more of a reason than September guts -- to look for reasons apart from the pyschological.
Or, of course, he could come out of it. I don't honestly think they will give him more than his next start to snap the funk, not in any case if his last start means anything.
#29
Posted 20 September 2005 - 04:49 AM
Wake has become a replacement in this group , Schilling must pull something out of his ..., and Wellls must become Lowe towards the post season.
#30
Posted 21 September 2005 - 06:09 AM
He's had two awful stretches totalling 19 batters out of his last 193 batters faced. (Of course, it's 19 out of his last 36, but hopefully that will prove to be rather less predictive.)
Edit: for those evaluating his whole season, his 4.65 ERA is bs. He's had awful bullpen support which had added 5.5 runs to his total. He's also had 7.3 runs of errors made behind him but has only given up 5 UER. Making those adjustments gives him a 4.24 True ERA. Furthermore, Contextual Runs tells us that a guy with his full pitching line should have a 4.08 ERA, so he's had bad situational karma.
Edited by Eric Van, 21 September 2005 - 06:19 AM.
#31
Posted 21 September 2005 - 06:39 AM
John Henry has said on numerous occasions that he doesn't believe in negotiating. That you communicate to your target that you are making your best offer right up front and leave it at that. They obviously did not do this in Pedro's case, indicating that either they 1) badly misread the market or 2) didn't want him.
Good point DH3. I was reading a past issue of of SI where they quoted Matt Clement as saying (to paraphrase) "The Red Sox showed they were interested in me. They came forward with their best offer right away and were very professional." It made me wonder why they didn't use this same negotiating tactic with Pedro. Obviously they were willing to go 3 years, but only when another team got involved.
I agree that if they came forward with 3/39, or 3/40.5 right away, Pedro is a Red Sox right now.
#32
Posted 21 September 2005 - 08:14 AM
He's had two awful stretches totalling 19 batters out of his last 193 batters faced. (Of course, it's 19 out of his last 36, but hopefully that will prove to be rather less predictive.)
Ok, so what's normal? Is this good or bad? I feel like we need a little more context here. Clement is prone to the big inning- I think that's a function of him not having very good control and just losing it at times. That he is generally good but sometimes awful doesn't seem to be all that important unless he can figure out how to stop those awful innings before the game is out of control, right?
Edit: for those evaluating his whole season, his 4.65 ERA is bs. He's had awful bullpen support which had added 5.5 runs to his total. He's also had 7.3 runs of errors made behind him but has only given up 5 UER. Making those adjustments gives him a 4.24 True ERA. Furthermore, Contextual Runs tells us that a guy with his full pitching line should have a 4.08 ERA, so he's had bad situational karma.
Does Clement have a history of ERA's above his "true ERA"? I would think that might be important in attempting to determine what is karma and what isn't. Before the Sox signed him, you called Clement mediocre and that seems pretty accurate right now.
#33
Posted 04 October 2005 - 04:06 PM
''I'm not an All-Star. Bottom line. I wasn't chosen to be on the team. That's the facts," Clement said. ''If I get selected, I'm going. I've never been there. But the facts are I wasn't selected to be on the team. That's how it came down and what are you going to do? It's a shame. I feel I've pitched well enough that it shouldn't have come down to that."
Do you think this incident was part of the cause? Or just an example of a larger & more general lack of mental toughness? Personally I don't believe that the line drive off the head has had anything to do with his problems at any point this season. They started well before that.
#34
Posted 04 October 2005 - 04:11 PM
#35
Posted 04 October 2005 - 04:12 PM
#36
Posted 04 October 2005 - 04:13 PM
How do you rationalize his lack of strikeouts over the past couple of months?Edit: for those evaluating his whole season, his 4.65 ERA is bs. He's had awful bullpen support which had added 5.5 runs to his total. He's also had 7.3 runs of errors made behind him but has only given up 5 UER. Making those adjustments gives him a 4.24 True ERA. Furthermore, Contextual Runs tells us that a guy with his full pitching line should have a 4.08 ERA, so he's had bad situational karma.
#37
Posted 04 October 2005 - 04:13 PM
This is most certaionly correct, but I would contend that the Red Sox did in fact have a good shot at signing Pedro if their first offer was competitive and somewhat market for a staff ace coming out of the block. When the Red Sox offerred him 2 years at $20 million, the game was over. Not only was Pedro never going to sign a 2 year deal, but the money, which was very short for a pitcher of Pedro's quality, was also a non-starter. The Red Sox moved to 3 years way too late in the process, and when the Mets got really involved, they had no shot. I contend that if the first offer to Pedro was 3 years, $33 Million, it would have produced a reservoir of at least honest negotiation. The 2 year offer was a pretty clear signal to him that the Red Sox were prepared to go in another direction.
IMO, that decision, though defensible, will cost the Red Sox the World Series this year.
Look, I pine for Pedro as much as any Sox fan, but let's not forget that the Mets shut him down for the season right after they fell out of the pennant race. That being the case, how do we know that Pedro would even have been able to give us a single start in the playoffs this year had they resigned him?
#38
Posted 04 October 2005 - 04:35 PM
#39
Posted 04 October 2005 - 04:44 PM
It would not surprise me in the slightest -- this being of course if the Sox can get by the Hose -- if Clement is left off the LCS roster. He's just too inconsistent to trust, and has been for the last 6-8 weeks. Giving up three bombs in a playoff game is death.
#40
Posted 04 October 2005 - 04:54 PM
Especially against a subpar offense. Just a frighteningly bad performance.I would post this in the game thread, except it's not a knee-jerk reaction or in any way emotional -- since I didn't expect Clement to pitch well today.
It would not surprise me in the slightest -- this being of course if the Sox can get by the Hose -- if Clement is left off the LCS roster. He's just too inconsistent to trust, and has been for the last 6-8 weeks. Giving up three bombs in a playoff game is death.
#41
Posted 04 October 2005 - 05:25 PM
Especially against a subpar offense. Just a frighteningly bad performance.
That subpar offense hit more home runs this year than we did.
#42
Posted 04 October 2005 - 05:38 PM
#43
Posted 04 October 2005 - 05:42 PM
this subpar offense's OBP was 33 points lower than ours.That subpar offense hit more home runs this year than we did.
#44
Posted 04 October 2005 - 05:56 PM
I would post this in the game thread, except it's not a knee-jerk reaction or in any way emotional -- since I didn't expect Clement to pitch well today.
It would not surprise me in the slightest -- this being of course if the Sox can get by the Hose -- if Clement is left off the LCS roster. He's just too inconsistent to trust, and has been for the last 6-8 weeks. Giving up three bombs in a playoff game is death.
Agreed.
And the thought of him starting if this series goes to a game 5 really scares me.
#45
Posted 04 October 2005 - 06:00 PM
#46
Posted 04 October 2005 - 06:10 PM
If there is a Game 5: I think we'll know more about who takes the ball depending on the next three games. If Tito doesn't have to use Arroyo (not that he's lighting the world on fire either) in Games 2, 3 or 4, I think Arroyo gets the ball. I think he has to.
The good news is that we can get 7-9 innings out of Wells, Wake, and Schill if they are going decently. I'm being nothing more than a sunnyside optimist to take heart in the beating today. I figure the WS got it all out of their system this afternoon and will struggle for 3-4 runs over the next few games.
#47
Posted 04 October 2005 - 06:17 PM
I also think he's just a wimp. There is no way to measure it but when the going has gotten tough...Clement has folded like a cheap suit. He's worthless.
I wrote something similar to this last July when the Sox were rumored to be trading for him. I did not want him then and I want him even less now.
I really hope they can move him this winter. Seattle needs pitching, make it work Theo
#48
Posted 04 October 2005 - 06:20 PM
And yeah,...Clement is on the bubble for next year,....I don't give a crap about his big contract either....
#49
Posted 04 October 2005 - 06:21 PM
"When a man's an empty kettle
He should be on his mettle
And yet I'm torn apart
Just because I'm presumin'
That I could be kind-a human
If I only had a heart."
#50
Posted 04 October 2005 - 06:23 PM
We talk alot about choking around here. To me, the definition of choking is letting the pressure of a stressful situation keep you from physically being able to perform. That is what I saw from Clement.













