117 replies to this topic

[trekfan55]

With 5 days to go before the first game of the season (and that game being against the Yanks) I think it's time to devote a space to the 2010 bullpen.

At first glance, and this has been mentioned elsewhere, this may be a weakness for this team this year. There are IMO too many uncertainties and the depth does not look too good. Now, I don't want to be Chicken Little before the season even starts so I'll just put my thoughts here and allow the discussion to talk me off the cliff.

Closer: Papelbon has not looked sharp in ST. Combined with his heart attack inducing acts of last season and compounded with the taste he left in our mouths in Game 3 of the ALDS, makes me a little nervous.

Setup: Dan Bard looks OK to terrific. I also have faith, for some reason, in Oki. After that we got DelCarmen and his iffy fasttball, Ramon Ramirez (the original one) who turned into a pumkin suddenly.

That makes 5 members.

Questions:
Do the Sox go with a 6 or a 7 man bullpen?
Do they have a long man?
Will Tito need a Loogy? If so who? Can they call Shouse again?

Let's see what we all think on this.

[trekfan55]

http://www.boston.co..._updates_f.html

Forgot abouth Atchison, and what I have read about Schoenweis is that his numbers are not good at all so far.

[Dick Pole Upside]

I had some brief comments this morning in the hilarious Sox-Rays Game Thread, but here's my take.

Definitely a relative team weakness heading into the season, IMO.

Projected Opening Day 'pen:

• Paps
• Oki
• Bard
• Ram-Ram
• Atchison
• MDC

In the wings: Boof (DL), either Embree or Schoenweiss

Out: Nelson, Embree or Schoenweiss

I agree with your intial thoughts: Paps, Ramirez, MDC are shaky based on end of '09 and ST. Bard a little less so, though he's the least proven of that front-line bunch. Atchison is an unknown... my guess is he'll be serviceable for a couple of weeks. He's pitched well for most of ST, but had a hiccup recently. If he starts to tail off, then in comes Boof. Embree has been awful, and Schoenweiss' debut wasn't good. I don't get the feeling that Embree would be a LOOGY... Schoenweis a possiblity.

[bosockboy]

Don't forget when Dice-K is ready Wake has to go somewhere. There is essentially one spot between Atchison, Bonser, Schoenweis and Embree when that all shakes out. My guess is Atchison and Schoenweis rotate that spot and the other two flame out.

[trekfan55]

Nice tweet by Gordon Edes:

Joe Angel on Orioles radio: "Who was lefty they released? Shouse? Hope they kept his number.''

Both Schoenweis and Embree got lit up in the 8th and 9th of today's game.

[Kremlin Watcher]

Watching Embree today was painful. He seemed like a guy capable of giving up a 12-run lead. The Sox' experiment with him reminds me of the Mike Remlinger experience in 2005. I remember listening to Schilling on EEI trying to convince himself that it was a good move: "Mike's a major league pitcher ... he can get guys out ..." Then he could hardly get out of the bullpen, much less a game. Is it really the case that the lefty short man market is so thin that Embree is actually an option even to consider? It is hard to imagine with an ERA of over 40 and a WHIP of over 5 that he even gets sent down (not that he has any options left). Have to think that he is out the door.

[GreenMonsterVsGodzilla]

I also have faith, for some reason, in Oki.

This might have something to do with his 11K/1BB in 9 innings this spring.

[trekfan55]

Watching Embree today was painful. He seemed like a guy capable of giving up a 12-run lead. The Sox' experiment with him reminds me of the Mike Remlinger experience in 2005. I remember listening to Schilling on EEI trying to convince himself that it was a good move: "Mike's a major league pitcher ... he can get guys out ..." Then he could hardly get out of the bullpen, much less a game. Is it really the case that the lefty short man market is so thin that Embree is actually an option even to consider? It is hard to imagine with an ERA of over 40 and a WHIP of over 5 that he even gets sent down (not that he has any options left). Have to think that he is out the door.

Embree is not on the 40 man roster (he signed a minor league deal) so options are not relevant. That being said, I also think he should be out the door.

If I counted correctly the Sox have 28 players on the active roster, which must be cut to 25 by Sunday. 13 pitchers are active now including Tazawa, whom I expect to be placed on the DL between now and Sunday. I also expect DiceK to start the season on the DL which leaves 11 active pictchers including Atchison. They may start the season with 11 pitchers but I doubt it, so I expect them to send Reddick down and get another pitcher from either AAA or maybe even give Shouse another shot.

[EP Sox Fan]

As good as the pen was last season, there's cause for concern this season. MDC's struggles for consistency have been well documented. We have yet to see how he will bounce back form the injury that apparently limited his effectiveness at the end of last season. As good as Bard looks at times, he can look really bad (especially against lefties) and there's not much in the way of a track record. If his change pans out, it could temper his problems against LHB. Paps has not looked good this spring and we all remember last season's implosion in the ALDS. Ramon Ramirez was fantastic at the beginning of last season. Looking at his splits you can see that he struggled from July through October. He's looked awful this spring. Atchison has looked good but is an unknown quantity. Last but not least we have the revolving door of Nelson/ Embree / Schoenweis/ Bosner who fail to inspire any confidence. At this point, the only member of the pen that I am not overly concerned about is Oki.

IMO, the biggest concern (assuming Paps is just starting slow) is whether Ramon Ramirez or MDC can step-up and pitch in meaningful situations. If neither of them can regain their effectiveness, our pen looks very thin in high leverage situations.

[TFisNEXT]

We are probably going to be seeing a lot of Okajima in the 8th inning early this season if spring performance is any indication. The other guys aren't inspiring a lot of confidence. I'm sure one of MDC, Bard, or Ramirez will step up though early on and add some confidence to the pen. That's the way it usually works out. Those guys are all good pitchers and one of them will start pitching like it soon enough.

[Terras]

We are probably going to be seeing a lot of Okajima in the 8th inning early this season if spring performance is any indication. The other guys aren't inspiring a lot of confidence. I'm sure one of MDC, Bard, or Ramirez will step up though early on and add some confidence to the pen. That's the way it usually works out. Those guys are all good pitchers and one of them will start pitching like it soon enough.

Out of those three you mentioned, I think it has to be Bard if anyone is taking that role away from Oki. Okajima's proven himself rather capable in that role over the last few years and though I can't find a statistic for it, I'd be interested to see what the conversion % of his holds opportunities are, especially those in the 8th inning. It has to be well above the league average since he came into the league.

Bard's gotten a lot of press (and rightly so), but while there's still a fair amount unproven about him; however, if the Sox want him to be the closer of the future, then he's going to have to get late game experience some time.

MDC is, as EP Sox Fan noted, inconsistent and coming back from injury and will likely stay in that middle relief role, based on how Tito has used him the last few seasons.

Ramon, who did show an ability to perform under pressure last season, looked very overworked, to the point that he was suffering from a dead arm by midway through the season when his numbers dropped. I wouldn't be afraid of using him in a high leverage situation (all in all last year, he only gave up 7ER to 71TBF in high leverage situations) because he showed that he could do it, I would just want Tito to limit his usage considerably more than he did last season.

[OttoC]

One thing that troubles me with Okajima is that his performance against right-handed batters has been getting worse.

CODE

OPS vs.
Year  RHB   LHB
2007 .512  .648
2008 .661  .547
2009 .906  .467

[joe dokes]

Dead Men Talking:
http://www.boston.co...s_short?mode=PF

[Foulkey Reese]

Bradford on Twitter.

Atchison told he has made the team #redsox

http://twitter.com/bradfo

[mabrowndog]

Embree has accepted an assignment to Pawtucket:

"I don’t know what’s to think through," said Embree. "They have me until the 15th (of April), regardless. If we decide to go longer, I think that might be something that might on a wait-and-see approach. We’ll see in that window. I knew coming in that it would be a reach to make the roster. Did I want to? Absolutely. Who doesn’t? So, I think it’s just a matter of getting some reps under my belt to see if they want me at that level."

I'm rooting for the guy but I'm not holding out much hope after allowing 10 ER while recording 7 outs.

[EastCoasterOutWest]

In the interview with Farrell during the game today, he seemed to be suggesting the final spot was between Schoeneweis and Nelson.

[phragle]

The one thing I hoping for is that the new defense allows our starters to go deeper in the games, and reduce our reliance on relief pitching.

[donutogre]

The one thing I hoping for is that the new defense allows our starters to go deeper in the games, and reduce our reliance on relief pitching.

The higher quality of the Sox pitching staff plus the improved defense should certainly help, but there's still going to be plenty of innings for the pen, unfortunately.

Delcarmen gives up 2 runs on 2 hits and a walk in 1 2/3 innings today...looks like he might still not be the answer, based on his spring, although I'd have expected his ERA to be higher than 3.24 at this point. We'll see..

[EP Sox Fan]

In the interview with Farrell during the game today, he seemed to be suggesting the final spot was between Schoeneweis and Nelson.

Here's a comparison of the two courtesy of Fangraphs.

Not much to like about the way either pitcher is trending. Nelson's numbers look slightly better but that's only because Schoeneweis was flat out awful last season. Historically, Nelson has been the better strikeout pitcher, although his K/9 has come back to earth in the last few season. In addition to his poor K/0 ration, Schoenenweis' K/BB and BB/9 have been headed in the wrong direction for the past few years. Neither one had especially good years versus LHB last season but Nelson was a bit better.

For whatever reason, Extra Bases seems to think Schonenweis is the favorite to get the job. Based on everything I can glean from the numbers, and especially as bad as Schonenweis was last season, Nelson looks like the better bet.

[judyb]

The higher quality of the Sox pitching staff plus the improved defense should certainly help, but there's still going to be plenty of innings for the pen, unfortunately.

Delcarmen gives up 2 runs on 2 hits and a walk in 1 2/3 innings today...looks like he might still not be the answer, based on his spring, although I'd have expected his ERA to be higher than 3.24 at this point. We'll see..

Those 2 runs probably don't score if the Red Sox IF had still been in the game instead of the Pawsox IF. It's not just that you don't have to use those middle relievers as much, you can get away with less damage when you do use them, too.

Edited by judyb, 01 April 2010 - 04:30 PM.

[judyb]

Here's a comparison of the two courtesy of Fangraphs.

Not much to like about the way either pitcher is trending. Nelson's numbers look slightly better but that's only because Schoeneweis was flat out awful last season. Historically, Nelson has been the better strikeout pitcher, although his K/9 has come back to earth in the last few season. In addition to his poor K/0 ration, Schoenenweis' K/BB and BB/9 have been headed in the wrong direction for the past few years. Neither one had especially good years versus LHB last season but Nelson was a bit better.

For whatever reason, Extra Bases seems to think Schonenweis is the favorite to get the job. Based on everything I can glean from the numbers, and especially as bad as Schonenweis was last season, Nelson looks like the better bet.

Abraham is probably right, because Schoeneweis has an out on April 15, while Nelson's isn't until June. If Schoeneweis can't hold onto the job, they'll still have a chance to try Nelson later.

[donutogre]

Those 2 runs probably don't score if the Red Sox IF had still been in the game instead of the Pawsox IF. It's not just that you don't have to use those middle relievers as much, you can get away with less damage when you do use them, too.

Good point, and I was coming back to note that...but still, all accounts say he looked pretty damn bad up to that point.

[EastCoasterOutWest]

Here's a comparison of the two courtesy of Fangraphs.

Not much to like about the way either pitcher is trending. Nelson's numbers look slightly better but that's only because Schoeneweis was flat out awful last season. Historically, Nelson has been the better strikeout pitcher, although his K/9 has come back to earth in the last few season. In addition to his poor K/0 ration, Schoenenweis' K/BB and BB/9 have been headed in the wrong direction for the past few years. Neither one had especially good years versus LHB last season but Nelson was a bit better.

For whatever reason, Extra Bases seems to think Schonenweis is the favorite to get the job. Based on everything I can glean from the numbers, and especially as bad as Schonenweis was last season, Nelson looks like the better bet.

I'd be of the mind that last season might be an outlier for Schoeneweis due to the death of his wife and his back and forth as a player. Based on that, he should be somewhere a bit below league average, but not as bad as his 09 numbers would suggest.

[phragle]

Why did we get rid of Saito again?

[Lose Remerswaal]

Why did we get rid of Saito again?

$$

And Tito didn't trust him the last couple of months of the season in "clutch" situations.

[Eddie Jurak]

I am none-too-impressed with the early handling of the bullpen. Ramirez essentially has no role, while Bard has appeared in every game, 4 appearances in 6 days. It's not too hard to imagine Bard strggling with this kind of workload.

Why is it that baseball teams have absolutely no use for a relief pitcher who can pitch in 2-3 games per week and shut down other teams for multiple innings? Bard proved his value in that role last year, and now that Francona trusts him he has a completely differentrole and workload, one that is as likely to ruin that great arm as it is to help the Red Sox actually win.

[Kevin Youkulele]

I am none-too-impressed with the early handling of the bullpen. Ramirez essentially has no role, while Bard has appeared in every game, 4 appearances in 6 days. It's not too hard to imagine Bard strggling with this kind of workload.

Why is it that baseball teams have absolutely no use for a relief pitcher who can pitch in 2-3 games per week and shut down other teams for multiple innings? Bard proved his value in that role last year, and now that Francona trusts him he has a completely differentrole and workload, one that is as likely to ruin that great arm as it is to help the Red Sox actually win.

I don't know that baseball teams in general have no use for such a reliever--look at how the Yankees used Park the other night. I think Francona has decided that Bard and Okajima are the 7th/8th inning guys, though, and that means they each pitch one inning per outing. I don't know whether it's relevant that it seems like in previous years Francona frequently got burned when he tried to "steal" an extra inning with Delcarmen, Okajima, or the like. And of course, Papelbon lost it in his second inning in game 3 of the Yankees series just now.

[Bowlerman9]

Why did we get rid of Saito again?

Who would you rather NOT have so we could have Saito at $7M? Scutaro? Papelbon? Cameron? Beltre?

Just curious.

[yecul]

The guys that you expect to perform well have been spotty. The rest have all basically sucked. The usage is quizzical at times. And to top it all off the offense is doing no one any favors by not scoring and not providing any separation. Oh, and in the first two games Lester gave 15 outs while Beckett got just 14.

The pen is not going to be a force. I think we can all concede that. But it's also not going to be inept, at least not when the team puts it in some better spots.

I think they ultimately trade for an arm. Before then it might get someone like Buchholz for a stretch when Dice returns.

Ramirez and Delcarmen falling apart has been enormous.

[OttoC]

So far Boston relievers had made 15 appearances covering 13.1 innings. Bard and Okajima have accounted for almost half those totals--7 games, 6 IP. This is not a good start for bullpen usage this year.

[judyb]

So far Boston relievers had made 15 appearances covering 13.1 innings. Bard and Okajima have accounted for almost half those totals--7 games, 6 IP. This is not a good start for bullpen usage this year.

Seriously, they played 1 game, had a day off, played 2 games, had a day off, played 1 game.

[Eddie Jurak]

Seriously, they played 1 game, had a day off, played 2 games, had a day off, played 1 game.

I think OttoC meant to say, "7 days, 6 IP", but it is actually 6 days and 6 IP. There is no justification for relying so heavily on 2 guys, especially when there are 7 guys in the bullpen. How long before an overworked Bard struggles and is labeled a guy who can;t pitch in difficult situations? Happens to good relievers all the time.

[MoGator71]

I don't know that baseball teams in general have no use for such a reliever--look at how the Yankees used Park the other night. I think Francona has decided that Bard and Okajima are the 7th/8th inning guys, though, and that means they each pitch one inning per outing. I don't know whether it's relevant that it seems like in previous years Francona frequently got burned when he tried to "steal" an extra inning with Delcarmen, Okajima, or the like. And of course, Papelbon lost it in his second inning in game 3 of the Yankees series just now.

It seems like Francona has never really used a reliever that way, at least not regularly. I'm not sure if it's his style, or if it's some combination of 1, Sox starters generally going long enough where 1 or 2 guys for an inning each works, and 2, the bullpen not generally having a "multiple inning" guy. But that's the way it's worked out, and occasionally it burns him (in games that go 12+ and he's down to the last guy in the pen).

[j44thor]

It seems like Francona has never really used a reliever that way, at least not regularly. I'm not sure if it's his style, or if it's some combination of 1, Sox starters generally going long enough where 1 or 2 guys for an inning each works, and 2, the bullpen not generally having a "multiple inning" guy. But that's the way it's worked out, and occasionally it burns him (in games that go 12+ and he's down to the last guy in the pen).

Justin Masterson says hello.

That was exactly his role last year and in 08. When Francona has had a multiple inning guy he has used him in that capacity.

[Harry Hooper]

Justin Masterson says hello.

That was exactly his role last year and in 08. When Francona has had a multiple inning guy he has used him in that capacity.

Tito turns every reliever into essentially a single-inning guy. Check the game logs on Masterson. About 70% of his relief appearances were for an inning or less.


This pen is going to be underwhelming to say the least if the big 3 {Papelbon, Bard, and Okajima} have significant rough patches this season.

Edited by Harry Hooper, 10 April 2010 - 10:59 AM.

[OttoC]

I think OttoC meant to say, "7 days, 6 IP", but it is actually 6 days and 6 IP. There is no justification for relying so heavily on 2 guys, especially when there are 7 guys in the bullpen. How long before an overworked Bard struggles and is labeled a guy who can;t pitch in difficult situations? Happens to good relievers all the time.

What I meant was that Red Sox relievers have made 15 appearances in the four games the Sox have played and 7 of those appearances were by Bard and Okajima.

Gms
4 Bard
3 Okajima
2 Papelbon
2 Atchison
2 Schoeneweis
1 Delcarmen
1 Ramirez

[phragle]

Who would you rather NOT have so we could have Saito at $7M? Scutaro? Papelbon? Cameron? Beltre?

Just curious.

I thought he signed for 3.2?

[mikeford]

Who would you rather NOT have so we could have Saito at $7M? Scutaro? Papelbon? Cameron? Beltre?

Just curious.

Yeah... first of all it was 3.2 mil for one year, phragle is correct.

Second of all, even if it was 7 million... they're the freaking Boston Red Sox. Crying poor over 7 mil seems pretty ridiculous when the team spends 150 mil or so every year on payroll.

[CaptainLaddie]

I think if the July 2009 versions of ourselves could hear us bitching about not having Saito on this team anymore, they'd be laughing at us.

[phragle]

Not sure if this has been posted.

Embree wants in, or out.

“They only have me until the 15th, so that is the timetable,” he said. “There are 29 other baseball teams out there that are probably looking for relief help. The goal is on the 15th to sit there and go, ‘OK, I am going to Boston.’ But if that is not the case I have to think about the rest of the season as well.”

[Bowlerman9]

Yeah... first of all it was 3.2 mil for one year, phragle is correct.

Second of all, even if it was 7 million... they're the freaking Boston Red Sox. Crying poor over 7 mil seems pretty ridiculous when the team spends 150 mil or so every year on payroll.

Except for the Sox to pick up his option, it would have cost $7M. And once they declined his option, he was a FA. So maybe he could have come back for $4M or so.

Except it's not 150M, it's $180M. And while you would think that makes your point better, it doesnt. The Sox have done everything they can to stay under the luxury threshold this year. Even spending $4M on Saito would have most likely meant spending $4M less elsewhere.

For a guy who threw close to zero high leverage innings last year, we seem to be missing him an awful lot.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Yeah... first of all it was 3.2 mil for one year, phragle is correct.

From Cot's:

CODE

# 1 year/$1.5M (2009), plus 2010 club option

    * signed by Boston as a free agent 1/10/09
    * 09:$1.5M, 10: club option for price of 2009 earnings
    * 2009 salary increases to $2.5M if Saito is on active 25-man roster on Opening Day 2009
    * if club does not exercise 2010 option, player will be released
    * 2009 performance bonuses: $0.5M each for 50, 55, 60, 65, 70 games
    * 2009 roster bonuses based on days on active 25-man roster (not DL): $0.5M each for 30, 60, 90, 120, 150 days
    * 2010 performance and roster bonuses: any unearned 2009 bonuses

$2.5M + $1.0M (56 games) + $2.5M (150+ days on active roster) = $6.0M in 2009 earnings

Based on this, it appears everyone is off and the option was worth $6 million, with the potential to be worth $7.5M if he pitched in 70 games in 2010...if I'm understanding the final line correctly.

[czar]

Ramon Ramirez's month by month xFIP since joining the Sox.

4/09: 5.00
5/09: 4.82
6/09: 4.69
7/09: 4.33
8/09: 6.25
9/09: 5.18
4/10: 9.25 (not including today's suckfest).

The only reason he was remotely good last year in April and May was because he had a sub .200 BABIP for the first three months of the season. Once that normalized, he's been pretty worthless ever since.

[phragle]

Ramon Ramirez's month by month xFIP since joining the Sox.

4/09: 5.00
5/09: 4.82
6/09: 4.69
7/09: 4.33
8/09: 6.25
9/09: 5.18
4/10: 9.25 (not including today's suckfest).

The only reason he was remotely good last year in April and May was because he had a sub .200 BABIP for the first three months of the season. Once that normalized, he's been pretty worthless ever since.

And at the end of the season Delcarmen's xFIP was even higher 5.09 (RR) to 5.32 (MDC)

The reason I'm not losing sleep at night is that we have a lot of replacements.
Just off the top:
Matsuzaka/Wakefield
Bonser
Richardson
Embree
Nelson
Bowden
Cabrera
Ramon A. Ramirez

[Bowlerman9]

The reason I'm losing sleep at night is that we have a lot of mediocre at best replacements.
Just off the top:
Bonser
Richardson
Embree
Nelson
Bowden
Cabrera
Ramon A. Ramirez

[phragle]

The reason I'm losing sleep at night is that we have a lot of mediocre at best replacements.
Just off the top:
Bonser
Richardson
Embree
Nelson
Bowden
Cabrera
Ramon A. Ramirez

If you're so worried I'd imagine you have a plan. Why don't you enlighten us?

[Harry Hooper]

Ramon Ramirez's month by month xFIP since joining the Sox.

4/09: 5.00
5/09: 4.82
6/09: 4.69
7/09: 4.33
8/09: 6.25
9/09: 5.18
4/10: 9.25 (not including today's suckfest).

The only reason he was remotely good last year in April and May was because he had a sub .200 BABIP for the first three months of the season. Once that normalized, he's been pretty worthless ever since.

At what point do you say the Ramirez-Farrell relationship just isn't generating results and trade this guy for somebody else's relief enigma?

[Sprowl]

The reason I'm losing sleep at night is that we have a lot of mediocre at best replacements.
Just off the top:
Bonser
Richardson
Embree
Nelson
Bowden
Cabrera
Ramon A. Ramirez

The bullpen depth is certainly weaker than last year, but I have high hopes for Richardson as a LOOGY+, specifically a lefty for three outs L-R-L guy. His velocity and stuff both look pretty good for a left-handed reliever, and his sinker may give him double-play potential. I also think that Bowden's excellent control could make him an effective lower-echelon reliever. If Ramirez or Little Manny goes on the DL with a tired arm, I don't see the first line of replacements as being a big step down.