[Miskatonic PhD]

OK, I need some convincing here.

I see people in various threads positing that some time in the not entirely distant future Tazawa will make a serviceable or better Major League starter for the Sox.

Really?

I mean, they rescued this guy from the Industrial League in Japan, where he'd gone to avoid indentured servitude in NPB, but everything I've seen or read about the guy seems to indicate that it was basically a flier, that he may have some potential, worth a few bucks to find out, yadda yadda.

Yet I see posters with presumably straight faces suggesting he's a fair bet to be penciled into the rotation at some point in the forseeable future.

Can someone better able to assess pitchers than I explain to me why this is, or is it just a weird new form of prospect fapping?

[Jed Zeppelin]

OK, I need some convincing here.

I see people in various threads positing that some time in the not entirely distant future Tazawa will make a serviceable or better Major League starter for the Sox.

Really?

I mean, they rescued this guy from the Industrial League in Japan, where he'd gone to avoid indentured servitude in NPB, but everything I've seen or read about the guy seems to indicate that it was basically a flier, that he may have some potential, worth a few bucks to find out, yadda yadda.

Yet I see posters with presumably straight faces suggesting he's a fair bet to be penciled into the rotation at some point in the forseeable future.

Can someone better able to assess pitchers than I explain to me why this is, or is it just a weird new form of prospect fapping?

The Boston Red Sox signed him for $3 million and started him at AA immediately. They are better able to assess pitchers than you.

[Bowlerman9]

OK, I need some convincing here.

I see people in various threads positing that some time in the not entirely distant future Tazawa will make a serviceable or better Major League starter for the Sox.

Really?

I mean, they rescued this guy from the Industrial League in Japan, where he'd gone to avoid indentured servitude in NPB, but everything I've seen or read about the guy seems to indicate that it was basically a flier, that he may have some potential, worth a few bucks to find out, yadda yadda.

Yet I see posters with presumably straight faces suggesting he's a fair bet to be penciled into the rotation at some point in the forseeable future.

Can someone better able to assess pitchers than I explain to me why this is, or is it just a weird new form of prospect fapping?

The guy had a 2.57 ERA as a 22 year old in AA. He had a K/9 over 8. He had a 3.38 K/BB ratio. He is absolutely a prospect.

[Miskatonic PhD]

The Boston Red Sox signed him for $3 million and started him at AA immediately. They are better able to assess pitchers than you.

No doubt. But they're far from infallible, alas.

My question, however, was can anyone here point me at whatever numbers or specific anecdotes about his stuff, makeup, whatever, that lead some to think he might be able to crack the Boston rotation in the near to not too distant future?

Jed apparently couldn't.

Edit: And Bowlerman apparently can.

This post has been edited by Miskatonic PhD: 18 March 2010 - 08:29 PM

[Jed Zeppelin]

No doubt. But they're far from infallible, alas.

My question, however, was can anyone here point me at whatever numbers or specific anecdotes about his stuff, makeup, whatever, that lead some to think he might be able to crack the Boston rotation in the near to not too distant future?

Jed apparently couldn't.

Edit: And Bowlerman apparently can.

Okay. Numbers aside, he has a nice array of pitches and a good feel for offspeed stuff. He's not going to blow anyone away but if he can maintain his good control in the majors he can be a back end of the rotation starter. He pretty much forced his way to Pawtucket last season - not bad for a 23 year old out of the Industrial League. He's somewhat similar to Bowden. Both of them might end up in the pen but Tazawa has shown nothing thus far to put him there yet. His numbers in Portland were just about as good as Casey Kelly's at a higher level, and he's universally acknowledged as the 1 or 2 prospect in the system.

edit: Actually, looking forward he might not crack the Boston rotation, but that's because four of the five slots are locked in long term if they resign Beckett, and all are top of the rotation type guys. The fifth spot will be open if Daisuke moves elsewhere after his contract is up, and it could be filled from a group of prospects including Tazawa. A lesser team might have him penciled in for their rotation to start this season. If he continues to develop he has as good a chance as any of them. So you're sort of right that he might not crack the rotation, but not necessarily because of him being bad. You usually have to be really effing good to start for the Red Sox, and he might end up being "just" pretty good.

This post has been edited by Jed Zeppelin: 18 March 2010 - 08:49 PM

[Dernells Casket n Flagon]

I mean, they rescued this guy from the Industrial League in Japan, where he'd gone to avoid indentured servitude in NPB, but everything I've seen or read about the guy seems to indicate that it was basically a flier, that he may have some potential, worth a few bucks to find out, yadda yadda.

You say rescued like he was a non-prospect coming out of the industrial league.

"Coming off a stellar 13-1, 0.80 ERA season where he also averaged 9.08 strikeouts per nine innings with Nippon Oil, mostly as a starter, Tazawa was sure to be an early selection in the next NPB draft. Instead, he wasn't even picked."

He wasn't selected by any teams because he said that he was planning on joining MLB and wouldn't sign any contract. In reality he would likely would have been one of the first couple of picks in the draft.

[Rustjive]

Numbers AND scouting reports aside, if he wasn't at least a prospect do you think the Sox would've called him up last season? When he pitched his first game the Sox were 2 games up in the wild card race and 3.5 back of the Yankees. They don't just let any 22 year old pitch, you know.

Edit: And yes, I realize that was the last reliever in a 15 inning game. Still, calling him up when the season is still very much in doubt.

This post has been edited by Rustjive: 18 March 2010 - 09:46 PM

[grantb]

Yet I see posters with presumably straight faces suggesting he's a fair bet to be penciled into the rotation at some point in the forseeable future.

The term foreseeable future is key to this question. It's clear that Tazawa has the talent to be a potential MLB starter, but he's still just 22. He has plenty of work to become a finished prospect and is not going to be an every fifth day Red Sox pitcher for a couple years. His time spent last season pitching for the big league club was out of necessity and coincidence that he was pitching the best in the system at the time when the Sox needed an extra pitcher, and that should be no different this year.

This post has been edited by grantb: 18 March 2010 - 09:50 PM

[jk333]

The term foreseeable future is key to this question. It's clear that Tazawa has the talent to be a potential MLB starter, but he's still just 22. He has plenty of work to become a finished prospect and is not going to be an every fifth day Red Sox pitcher for a couple years. His time spent last season pitching for the big league club was out of necessity and coincidence that he was pitching the best in the system at the time when the Sox needed an extra pitcher, and that should be no different this year.

I keep seeing this and its annoying; Tazawa is 23 now, 24 in June. Its annoying because its usually done in the context of "Bowden is likely a 6th starter/bullpen guy but Tazawa may be a mid rotation starter in a couple years. He has upside of a good #3 starter".

Bowden is about 6 months younger. They're the same age with similar stuff. If Bowden is a prospect for the rotation, so is Tazawa. And vice versa.

[Rough Carrigan]

Okay. He was a bit scary when he came up. I saw his first start with Frisbetarian and Varitek seemed to have called for fastballs his first 25 pitches, or nearly so. We got a good long look at his fastball. And, um, it wasn't that impressive. 89, maybe without exceptional movement or, at least that night, control. He seemed to have a good but not great curve. He controlled it pretty well but it seemed a bit loopy, not really sharp breaking. I don't really remember his other pitches. It would have been nice if Varitek had called them jsut a little more, so it was hard to form a clear impression of his splitter and any other pitch.

His stuff just didn't scream "top of the rotation guy". In fact, it was kind of shouting, "better have great command or this shit is getting whacked".

And he got hit hard a couple times.

Maybe he was a bit worn down at the end of his first season in american ball. And maybe he was a bit awed at his first taste of MLB competition. He threw a pretty good curve to ARod that got hit for a game winning homer. It wasn't in that bad of a spot, but it was that sort of big breaker that moves a fair distance but not all that sharply. Even though it was down, ARod killed it. I sort of wonder if after that he was a bit shaken that he'd given up such a big homer on a pitch that wasn't a real hanger and that he'd been getting away with fine before that. It was after that that he got killed a couple times. People can tell you to just keep to your game but it's got to unsettle you a bit that what was your game resulted in a walkoff. It's growing pains.

The bottom line is that there are extremely few guys who really are AAAA guys, who can succeed in the minors but can't make it translate at all to the major leagues. Major league equivalencies generally work. So, Tazawa's got to refine his game a bit and maybe get a bit stronger to be able to handle the long MLB season but just keep telling yourself "major league equivalencies work".

[Sprowl]

There are pitchers with sub-standard fastball velocity who nevertheless succeed as major league starters, but not that many, and most of them have pinpoint control and at least one great breaking pitch. Off of his major league starts, I think he does have pinpoint control, but I'm not sold on his forkball yet (its movement in 2010 was mediocre, and not very deceptive) and his curve looks good but not great.

The case for Tazawa depends on his adding velocity as he matures physically. He has a long, lean, wiry frame, with room to support increased muscle mass. If he can get his fastball from 89 to 91, he could be a good starter in two years and a perhaps a good reliever in the meantime. There is always a role in the bullpen for a Strikethrower™.

Whether Tazawa or Bowden would ever be a rotation starter for the Red Sox is another question: they look like mid-market team 3rd starters. If both of them are starting for the Red Sox, it would mean that the team had fallen on hard times and would no longer splurge on free agents like John Lackey.

[LondonSox]

I keep seeing this and its annoying; Tazawa is 23 now, 24 in June. Its annoying because its usually done in the context of "Bowden is likely a 6th starter/bullpen guy but Tazawa may be a mid rotation starter in a couple years. He has upside of a good #3 starter".

Bowden is about 6 months younger. They're the same age with similar stuff. If Bowden is a prospect for the rotation, so is Tazawa. And vice versa.

Age is not just about age it is also about experience, Tazawa has had one year in the US during which time he had a huge (and not to be underestimated) change in culture etc to adjust to. Bowden has had multiple years in the pros, red sox coaching for all of those years to correct any issues, Tazawa one year.
Tazawa had never pitching regularly out of the wind up until last year, seriously. Look at his result, he pitched almost exclusively out fo the stretch until last year. Pretty impressive.
I do think Bowden is better than people think, but he's less projectable because
a) we have a better understanding of his development, it's going to be harder for him to shock us
b) he's always had question marks around his delivery etc, and he hasn't done enough to dispell them

[OCD SS]

For the BA podcast on the AL East, they compared Tazawa and Bowden. They were much higher on Tazawa as a guy who could add FB velocity, and they liked his breaking stuff better as well (although in fairness a good deal of their aversion to Bowden stemmed from his poor perfromance last year - if you think he's going to rebound that would make them closer as prospects).

[maufman]

I keep seeing this and its annoying; Tazawa is 23 now, 24 in June. Its annoying because its usually done in the context of "Bowden is likely a 6th starter/bullpen guy but Tazawa may be a mid rotation starter in a couple years. He has upside of a good #3 starter".

Bowden is about 6 months younger. They're the same age with similar stuff. If Bowden is a prospect for the rotation, so is Tazawa. And vice versa.

Iirc, the Sox will use Bowden's final option this year. He'll be starting somewhere in 2011, but probably not for the Sox.

Tazawa missed some development time blowing away inferior competition in Japan, and he'll get at least one more year in the minors-- interrupted perhaps by a brief call-up or two-- to perfect his craft. I think between his shorter minor-league career and his less compressed timetable (he has more time to develop before sink-or-swim time), Tazawa is somewhat more likely to develop into a mid-rotation starter or better. (Both could be a #5 SP now for perhaps half a dozen teams.)

I agree they're similar. The difference in projection, which I agree isn't as big as some folks are making it out to be, is mostly due to circumstances, not stuff.

[OttoC]

In general, a taller player will have longer legs and arms than a shorter player. If there are two pitchers--one 6'3" and the other 5'11"--who release a pitch with exactly the same velocity, the pitch from the taller one travels a shorter distance to home plate and thus will get there in less time. There is a drop-off in velocity as the pitch travels towards home plate caused by gravity and air friction (all other things being equal), so a pitch that doesn't need to travel as far won't be effected as much.

This might not seem like much but consider that the strike zone--front of home plate to its rear point--is 17 inches and the actual hitting zone is probably smaller. If one pitcher has a height advantage that gives him a release point six inches closer to home plate than another, he gains an advantage, with the same velocity, in the magnitude of one-third to one-half home plate. Think of it this way: the pitching distance is thought of as 60'6" but that is measured from the front of the rubber to the rear of home plate, so the strike zone begins 17" before that, or 59'1", and the distance from the front of the rubber is reduced by the pitcher's release point. At an initial velocity of 89 mph, a pitch travels 1.566 inches per millisecond.

However, and this is a relatively big however, when you get down to actual individuals, you might find a 5'11" pitcher with proportionally longer arms and legs than expected or a 63" one with shorter appendages. hyou have to look at this closely because a 5'11" pitcher with an 89 mph fastball and a long stride might get the ball to the plate about as quickly as one with a 91 mph fastball but with a short stride.

[Dick Drago]

Interesting point, Cliff, I'd never thought about that before. But isn't there one gun that measures velocity when the ball is closer to the batter? Wouldn't that measurement have already accounted for a variable in release point?

There is a gun that measures release out of a pitcher's hand, which would seemingly be subject to a variance in the point from which the ball was released. But the other gun would account for that, no? It would be interesting to compare differences in the two guns for taller pitchers or ones with a longer stride...to pitchers who are shorter or don't stride as far.

[czar]

Interesting point, Cliff, I'd never thought about that before. But isn't there one gun that measures velocity when the ball is closer to the batter? Wouldn't that measurement have already accounted for a variable in release point?

There is a gun that measures release out of a pitcher's hand, which would seemingly be subject to a variance in the point from which the ball was released. But the other gun would account for that, no? It would be interesting to compare differences in the two guns for taller pitchers or ones with a longer stride...to pitchers who are shorter or don't stride as far.

I'm fairly certain Pitch F/X gives you a degree of the "true" trajectory of the ball since you're following the ball through snapshots in 3-D space.

That said, I'm not really sure how you can quickly verify Otto's point about the reaction time without the precise location (x,y,z) of release. It would seem to me that instantaneous velocity tells you nothing about the overall trajectory of the ball; and subsequently, the variation in "time to home plate," which is independent of said velocity-- although it's possible I'm not thinking this through fully.

This post has been edited by czar: 19 March 2010 - 09:33 AM

[joe dokes]

All technical evaluations aside, the guy came up at 22 after spending most of his first American professional year at AA. He had two pretty good starts in important situations and two bad ones. While that may not scream "Ace Ahoy," it certainly suggests he's worth a longer organizational looksee (like maybe a full year at AAA). I dont really get the rush to condemn his future, as the thread-starting suggests.

[jk333]

For the BA podcast on the AL East, they compared Tazawa and Bowden. They were much higher on Tazawa as a guy who could add FB velocity, and they liked his breaking stuff better as well (although in fairness a good deal of their aversion to Bowden stemmed from his poor perfromance last year - if you think he's going to rebound that would make them closer as prospects).

Higher on Taz because he can add velocity? Well hopefully, he was 88 - 89mph last year and he got HAMMERED for it. Bowden had a bad showing in the majors, but Tazawa's was worse. All the rate stats on Tazawa were worse than Bowden. Also Bowden is 91mph consistently, so, if BA's point is the difference is fastball velocity, well then...

I'm not even trying to say either prospect is better... they both underperformed last year but I definitely feel like everyone is giving Tazawa the "new toy" treatment. Bowden has been here for a few years and the polish and sparkle are long gone. Personally, I think they could both be #4 starters if everything goes well.

I think its literally impossible to distinguish between the two as prospects. To Londonsox, point taken regarding experience but I still think they're the same guy in terms of prospect status.

To Maufman: you make a good point, but it makes you wonder why they called him up in 2008 though, no?

And to Joe dokes: He was 23. Honestly, age is important when comparing prospects, if it wasn't there wouldn't be so many reports of "he debuted at 22". I almost don't even blame people, everyone cites 22.

EDIT - Note: rate stats referred to are major league. As are velocities. Thats what many of the scouting reports have been based upon and thats what is referenced above. As they were both callups, they are, naturally, "small sample sizes".

This post has been edited by jk333: 19 March 2010 - 11:29 AM

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Higher on Taz because he can add velocity? Well hopefully, he was 88 - 89mph last year and he got HAMMERED for it. Bowden had a bad showing in the majors, but Tazawa's was worse. All the rate stats on Tazawa were worse than Bowden. Also Bowden is 91mph consistently, so, if BA's point is the difference is fastball velocity, well then...

I'm not even trying to say either prospect is better... they both underperformed last year but I definitely feel like everyone is giving Tazawa the "new toy" treatment. Bowden has been here for a few years and the polish and sparkle are long gone. Personally, I think they could both be #4 starters if everything goes well.

I think its literally impossible to distinguish between the two as prospects. To Londonsox, point taken regarding experience but I still think they're the same guy in terms of prospect status.

To Maufman: you make a good point, but it makes you wonder why they called him up in 2008 though, no?

And to Joe dokes: He was 23. Jesus. Honestly, age is important when comparing prospects, if it wasn't there wouldn't be so many reports of "he debuted at 22". I almost don't even blame people, everyone cites 22.

Jeez, this is way harsh. Like you say, context matters. Tazawa was in his very first year of professional ball in this hemisphere (after being signed out of a Japanese semi-professional league), pitched VERY well for Portland, and got yanked from AA to the majors due to emergency circumstances. Bowden's been at AAA a few years now. That makes a huge difference in terms of their prospect status.

Tazawa's a promising prospect based on his first year here.