848 replies to this topic

[Hairps]

“This will be the most important thing I’ve ever done” – Steve Jobs, referring to the soon-to-be-launched Apple Tablet.

http://www.techcrunc...most-important/

We'll see. I'm generally anti-Apple, or maybe more specifically anti-Cult of Apple, but I'm very interested to see what they might have in store for this.

Edited by Hairps, 27 January 2010 - 02:29 PM.

[DukeSox]

http://www.techcrunc...most-important/

We'll see. I'm generally anti-Apple, or maybe more specifically anti-Cult of Apple, but I'm very interested to see what they might have in store for this.

guy knows how to drive a stock.

[MannysDestination]

guy knows how to drive a stock.

"Buy the rumor, sell the news"

Or, as an Australian colleague says, "Buy the froth, sell the beer"

It'll be tough for this to be a world changer like the iPod was considering it will retail at $1,000.... but Apple is not a good company to bet against.

Edited by MannysDestination, 25 January 2010 - 10:24 AM.

[behindthepen]

It'll be tough for this to be a world changer like the iPod was considering it will retail at $1,000.... but Apple is not a good company to bet against.

That the bar is so high is a great compliment to AAPL.
The bet is right now that the tablet will quickly get to a run rate of about 5-6 million units a year, which would add 50c-$1.00 in earnings to AAPL. At their current multiples that's the equivalent of adding a company the size of McAfee (at 50c) to Symantec ($1.00 in eps).

Remember that the price to Apple of the iphone is $600 (i.e, the revenue Apple receives). It's unlikely that they'll sell many tablets at $1000 but if they have a $800 version and they get subsidized by Verizon or AT&T down to the $600-800 range, it won't be hard to sell volumes. I know Kindle is a lot cheaper but it's a single-purposed device and about 2 million of those were sold last year. I think that shows how much pent-up demand there is for a mid-range device of Apple's quality.

edited for clarity. Apple books about $600 in revenue for each phone, and over $300 in gross profit as well.

Edited by behindthepen, 25 January 2010 - 04:08 PM.

[kneemoe]

That the bar is so high is a great compliment to AAPL.
The bet is right now that the tablet will quickly get to a run rate of about 5-6 million units a year, which would add 50c-$1.00 in earnings to AAPL. At their current multiples that's the equivalent of adding a company the size of McAfee (at 50c) to Symantec ($1.00 in eps).

Remember that the price to Apple of the iphone is $600. It's unlikely that they'll sell many tablets at $1000 but if they have a $800 version and they get subsidized by Verizon or AT&T down to the $600-800 range, it won't be hard to sell volumes. I know Kindle is a lot cheaper but it's a single-purposed device and about 2 million of those were sold last year. I think that shows how much pent-up demand there is for a mid-range device of Apple's quality.

I doubt that very much. They're making a ton of cash off the iPhone, and its not all in kick backs from AT&T (and all the other cellular companies worldwide)

[DukeSox]

I doubt that very much. They're making a ton of cash off the iPhone, and its not all in kick backs from AT&T (and all the other cellular companies worldwide)

that's just the hardware cost, which doesn't include all the costs of R+D, software, etc., that apple spent over the previous years. They're allowed to recoup that in the price as well, even though it's a "soft" cost.

[Haunted]

I doubt that very much. They're making a ton of cash off the iPhone, and its not all in kick backs from AT&T (and all the other cellular companies worldwide)

I like gizmodo, but that article is awfully misleading. Every company charges significantly more than the manufacture costs. Keep in mind that manufacture costs don't take R&D, marketing or a host of other costs into consideration at all, and often don't even include the $.04 in sweat-shop labor costs.

If you saw a comparison of manufacture costs to retail price from my company (we make consumer electronics, many of you probably have a lot of it!), you'd be horrified. But it's not all profit, and certainly not "fanboy tax".


edit: beaten to the punch

Edited by Haunted, 25 January 2010 - 03:35 PM.

[86spike]

there's speculation in the comments of that blog post (from the first entry in this thread) that the 'most important thing we've created' quip might be about this tablet becoming an educational tool.

It's distinctly possible that Jobs views this as a tool that students will carry to replace textbooks, but with net access, computing abilities, etc. I have a hard time seeing a game-changer like that happening quickly, but then again people thought the iPod wasn't such a revolution either.

[behindthepen]

I doubt that very much. They're making a ton of cash off the iPhone, and its not all in kick backs from AT&T (and all the other cellular companies worldwide)

feel free to doubt it, but I am 100% (not 99%) sure that Apple gets $600 in revenue on average for every iphone sold. But it's also correct that the bill of materials is only about $200-250.

[Rasputin]

there's speculation in the comments of that blog post (from the first entry in this thread) that the 'most important thing we've created' quip might be about this tablet becoming an educational tool.

It's distinctly possible that Jobs views this as a tool that students will carry to replace textbooks, but with net access, computing abilities, etc. I have a hard time seeing a game-changer like that happening quickly, but then again people thought the iPod wasn't such a revolution either.

A tablet with net access plus relatively easy portability of textbooks would, I think, be a phenomenal thing.

I mean, register for classes, download your books, download whatever other aps your professor develops for your class. Communicate assignments et cetera via scheduling thing.

I mean hell, you should be able to click/tap whatever a sentence in a text book and write some notes. When reviewing your notes, if they aren't clear, boom back to the original text.

[ragecage]

The interesting thing here is that this is the first time that Apple is announcing a product in this area that is really, truly expected to be a success. Even the iPhone was a new thing, not everyone believed in it, and it killed early expectations. This is different. What fascinates me are some rumblings that The Tablet is what Apple set out to make all along, and the iPhone just came first. Like, don't think of The Tablet as a big iPhone, but thing of the iPhone as a smaller, pared down Tablet.

What I'm truly exited for, is the missing piece that ties this all together. We essentially know the form factor and function (though text input is a big question), and we know the type of media that will essentially be involved. What I am waiting to see—and am confident Apple will show—is what differentiates this from either an iPhone, or a laptop. What else is happening here?

Wednesday is going to be fun.

[kneemoe]

that's just the hardware cost, which doesn't include all the costs of R+D, software, etc., that apple spent over the previous years. They're allowed to recoup that in the price as well, even though it's a "soft" cost.

I don't disagree, but most estimates of the 3G are saying under $200 for manufacturing the device, and though R&D is going to add substantially to that, I don't think its another $400/device. I could certainly be wrong, but with the number of them they're turning out I would find it hard to believe that Apple's cost is $600 per, especially in the long run.

[ragecage]

Isn't the $600 number basically $25/month per customer from AT&T? Multiply that by a 2-year, 24-month contract, and you get $600.

[JKelley34]

I don't disagree, but most estimates of the 3G are saying under $200 for manufacturing the device, and though R&D is going to add substantially to that, I don't think its another $400/device. I could certainly be wrong, but with the number of them they're turning out I would find it hard to believe that Apple's cost is $600 per, especially in the long run.

I think you missed BTP's point. He was discussing the revenue ($600) that Apple receives on each phone, not the cost. In this case, the fact that you see the iphone offered at $200 doesn't mean Apple sees only that, but rather, ATT is willing to pay $600 to Apple to sell the phone for only $200 with a 2-year contract.

[kneemoe]

I think you missed BTP's point. He was discussing the revenue ($600) that Apple receives on each phone, not the cost. In this case, the fact that you see the iphone offered at $200 doesn't mean Apple sees only that, but rather, ATT is willing to pay $600 to Apple to sell the phone for only $200 with a 2-year contract.

Please read post #5 which said, and I quote "Remember that the price to Apple of the iphone is $600"
and I disagreed.

[behindthepen]

Isn't the $600 number basically $25/month per customer from AT&T? Multiply that by a 2-year, 24-month contract, and you get $600.

No, as jkelley said, AT&T pays Apple $600, and gets their $100 per month from the subscriber in return. Actually AT&T probably pays $550, the subscriber buys another $50 worth of stuff, but Apple gets $600.

ragecage is right that this is unique in it's expectations. The big difference is that the heavy blocking and tackling, like getting the components and manufacturing, and the software right, has already been done.

However, this is another reason why itunes is expected to be updated as well, to support the new stuff they want this thing to do.

[visalia oak]

Here's a concept video from CourseSmart showing their tablet concept for textbooks.

[JKelley34]

Please read post #5 which said, and I quote "Remember that the price to Apple of the iphone is $600"
and I disagreed.

Yes...the price to Apple. Or the revenue to Apple. btp was making a point that while a full-price tablet at $1K or so might not sound like a game changer, if VZ or ATT offer it up for discount at 500-600 (with Apple getting the full $1K) to get subscribers then this might be a bigger revenue boost than imagined.

[kneemoe]

feel free to doubt it, but I am 100% (not 99%) sure that Apple gets $600 in revenue on average for every iphone sold. But it's also correct that the bill of materials is only about $200-250.

when did I question that? You said that to Apple the iPhone cost $600. Not trying to be confrontational here, but there's a misunderstanding. (EDIT: in that you said it cost them $600 each, whereas now its that they make $600 each. They are two separate things, are they not?)

EDIT2: nice, go back and edit the original post to make me look crazy, but don't discuss it (you editted it at 4:08,. after this post arrived - good job!). I think your language was quite clear where I quoted it.

Edited by kneemoe, 25 January 2010 - 04:31 PM.

[behindthepen]

when did I question that? You said that to Apple the iPhone cost $600. Not trying to be confrontational here, but there's a misunderstanding. (EDIT: in that you said it cost them $600 each, whereas now its that they make $600 each. They are two separate things, are they not?)

EDIT2: nice, go back and edit the original post to make me look crazy, but don't discuss it (you editted it at 4:08,. after this post arrived - good job!). I think your language was quite clear where I quoted it.

nope, I just realized why we were disagreeing, and I didn't really care to extend the debate, because I have to listen the Apple earnings conf call. hopefully it's pretty transparent that I edited it after your last response.

[jtn46]

That price point is a killer. If this thing is a dressed up netbook, yikes.

[AlNipper49]

If it's like a big iPhone with no voice my price point would be $500 with a $30 data - only plan. If not then Ill pass unless there is some utility for work, which I'm doubtful there will be

[kneemoe]

nope, I just realized why we were disagreeing, and I didn't really care to extend the debate, because I have to listen the Apple earnings conf call. hopefully it's pretty transparent that I edited it after your last response.

my apologies. I didn't mean to come off like a shmuck.

[Vinho Tinto]

I mean, register for classes, download your books, download whatever other aps your professor develops for your class. Communicate assignments et cetera via scheduling thing.

I mean hell, you should be able to click/tap whatever a sentence in a text book and write some notes. When reviewing your notes, if they aren't clear, boom back to the original text.

We're coming closer and closer to reaching "The Future".

[ragecage]

[86spike]

awesome

Now if he comes down off the mountain and sees his flock reading a Kindle, will he smash the tablets and storm off in a huff?

[staz]

If the Tablet's strategy is in line with recent Apple product launches, it will be designed to revolutionize a broad market. If the iPod was targeted to those who "listen to stuff", the tablet's will be targeted to those who "read stuff". This isn't going to be a niche product like Kindle, it'll be all that and much more.

[MannysDestination]

If the Tablet's strategy is in line with recent Apple product launches, it will be designed to revolutionize a broad market. If the iPod was targeted to those who "listen to stuff", the tablet's will be targeted to those who "read stuff". This isn't going to be a niche product like Kindle, it'll be all that and much more.

It seems like they're trying to fold in people who "watch stuff", because they've made waves trying to convince television and movie studios to lower their price point for TV episodes and movies -- similar to their game-changing $0.99 per song.

[behindthepen]

It seems like they're trying to fold in people who "watch stuff", because they've made waves trying to convince television and movie studios to lower their price point for TV episodes and movies -- similar to their game-changing $0.99 per song.

along with people who "play stuff".

[Max Power]

If the Tablet's strategy is in line with recent Apple product launches, it will be designed to revolutionize a broad market. If the iPod was targeted to those who "listen to stuff", the tablet's will be targeted to those who "read stuff". This isn't going to be a niche product like Kindle, it'll be all that and much more.

Then they really need to have a great screen technology. Electronic book readers have been around for almost 10 years, but they've only recently gained acceptance and I think it's mainly due to the eInk screens. When reading huge amounts of text, LCDs and any other transmissive display technology will cause eye fatigue fairly quickly. I saw reports of a netbook at CES sporting a brand new type of LCD that can switch between transmissive and reflective modes which may be perfect for something like this. If that's they're using, they may have something.

[OCD SS]

Looks like the cat's out of the bag.

Maybe.

[Rasputin]

Then they really need to have a great screen technology. Electronic book readers have been around for almost 10 years, but they've only recently gained acceptance and I think it's mainly due to the eInk screens. When reading huge amounts of text, LCDs and any other transmissive display technology will cause eye fatigue fairly quickly. I saw reports of a netbook at CES sporting a brand new type of LCD that can switch between transmissive and reflective modes which may be perfect for something like this. If that's they're using, they may have something.

Combine it with the ability to listen to tunes, make phone calls, track a calendar, have web access beyond e-mail and twitter as well as doing simple word processing, spreadsheets and presentations. Well now we're cookin'

[Rasputin]

We're coming closer and closer to reaching "The Future".

Where's my friggin' hover car?

[OCD SS]

Where's my friggin' hover car?

They were scrapped for Segways.

[Rasputin]

They were scrapped for Segways.

I never really got the point of the Segway.

[Batman Likes The Sox]

Is there anywhere online one could actually watch the press conference video live?

[Lippa]

A tablet with net access plus relatively easy portability of textbooks would, I think, be a phenomenal thing.

I mean, register for classes, download your books, download whatever other aps your professor develops for your class. Communicate assignments et cetera via scheduling thing.

I mean hell, you should be able to click/tap whatever a sentence in a text book and write some notes. When reviewing your notes, if they aren't clear, boom back to the original text.

There's a company called Entourage that has a device called the Edge coming out next month to do precisely that. On one side is a typical full-functioning e-reader/tablet, and on the other is a touch screen netbook running Android OS. It's made so that you can download textbooks on the e-reader side, take notes, underline, highlight, etc, and then use the netbook to email those notes. If there are color images embedded in the text, you can slide it over from the e-reader side to see those images in full color. You can pick a word or passage and automatically launch a google search on the netbook side, etc. It also includes a webcam and a noise reduction microphone designed for taping lectures. While the device is intended towards use in educational environments, I could also see where it could find a niche in corporate settings, especially if apps were developed and available in the Android Market designed to increase business productivity with the Edge.

[MannysDestination]

Is there anywhere online one could actually watch the press conference video live?

No live video allowed, Apple will release one after the conference. Plenty of websites are live blogging though and business news channels are covering it with still photos and commentary.

[MannysDestination]

Name of the tablet is iPad. Some brief snippets of initial remarks from WSJ.com live blog (apologies for poor formatting):

1:14 pmThe iPad is more intimate than a laptopby Geoffrey A. FowlerAdd a CommentIt is so much more intimate than a laptop, he says.

1:14 pmYouTube, TV and movies on your iPadby Geoffrey A. FowlerAdd a CommentYou can watch YouTube with it, and of course it is awesome for watching TV and movies, he adds. Now the demo begins.

1:13 pmMusic on your iPadby Geoffrey A. FowlerAdd a CommentIPad is an awesome way to enjoy your music collection, Jobs says.

1:12 pmTyping on the iPadby Geoffrey A. FowlerAdd a CommentYou can turn the iPad any way you want. "It is a dream to type on," Jobs says.

1:11 pmiPadby Geoffrey A. FowlerAdd a CommentIf there is going to be a third category of device, it is going to have to be better than these. "Netbooks aren't better at anything," Jobs says. "They are just cheap laptops." We think we've got something that is better, he says. "We call it the iPad."

1:11 pmiPadby Geoffrey A. FowlerAdd a CommentIf there is going to be a third category of device, it is going to have to be better than these. "Netbooks aren't better at anything," Jobs says. "They are just cheap laptops." We think we've got something that is better, he says. "We call it the iPad."

1:10 pmThe bar is highby Geoffrey A. FowlerAdd a CommentThe bar is pretty high -- those devices are going to have to be far better at doing some key tasks, he says. Better than the laptop and better than the smart phone. It needs to do browsing, email photos, video, music, games and e-books, he says.

1:09 pmJobs and Mosesby Geoffrey A. FowlerAdd a Comment"I chuckled when I saw this," Jobs says, showing a quote from The Journal and a photo of Moses and the tablet. Everybody uses a laptop or a smart phone now. Is there room for a third category of device in the middle, he asks.

1:05 pmJobs entersby Yukari Iwatani KaneAdd a CommentThe lights come down. Steve Jobs appears in a black turtleneck and jeans to huge applause and a standing ovation. He's smiling with hands clasped in front of him. "We want to kick off 2010 by introducing a truly magical and revolutionary product today, but before we get to that, we've got a few updates," he says.

http://blogs.wsj.com...-tablet-launch/

Edited by MannysDestination, 27 January 2010 - 01:18 PM.

[ifmanis5]

Pics: http://live.gdgt.com...event-coverage/

[Vinho Tinto]

Where's my friggin' hover car?

I'd be happy with mylar suits and an endless supply of Tang.

[Foulkey Reese]

I like hearing him shit on netbooks.

[The Four Peters]

I like hearing him shit on netbooks.

Would that be a Hot iCarl?

[Foulkey Reese]

Would that be a Hot iCarl?

Ha. Netbooks are the biggest pieces of shit in existence right now.

[Max Power]

Ha. Netbooks are the biggest pieces of shit in existence right now.

Why? What's wrong with a cheap laptop for people who don't want to do anything but web browsing and messaging? Especially one that weighs 2 or 3 pounds and can go into a carry-on bag easily for travel.

[jtn46]

Ha. Netbooks are the biggest pieces of shit in existence right now.

Yeah, but they're priced right. $300 for a device that's something between a cell phone and a laptop is fair. Is $1000 for a device that's between a netbook/ereader and a laptop fair?

ETA...and while I'm sure it will aim to compete with ereaders, I would assume the only thing that really makes it better than a netbook or laptop for reading books is that Apple will put a "iTunes" icon on it making purchases easy. Without e-ink, I still think it's not quite competing with the Kindle.

Edited by jtn46, 27 January 2010 - 01:48 PM.

[Buck Showalter]

Okay...

Very 'non-techie person' here is going to chime-in with the question any dolt like me will ask in the way of a personal electronic item:

"What can I do with it"?

I'm sure it's much more friendly for business commuters in comparison to a laptop....assuming you can compile / modify spreadsheets etc.

Reading the content of a book / newspaper...okay you sold me.

Text messaging with greater ease...nice.

But does this replace my cell-phone in any way? And even if it was meant to do so...wouldn't this be kinda' clumsy, difficult to utilize since you'd have to attach a headphone or utilize with BlueTooth technology?

I like the beginning of the story so far...but I'm not sold entirely.

[Wake]

Instead of crashing, the iPad will "cramp up."

[kneemoe]

Ha. Netbooks are the biggest pieces of shit in existence right now.

That's like, your opinion man.

Anyway, they're good for what they actually for - web browsing, light document editing, email... they aren't supposed to be the same thing as a full blown desktop (nor should anyone expect them to compete in that category, they're $300)
I love mine, because above all else its portable while retaining a usable keyboard, my iPhone doesn't have a CAT5 port or a VGA out either, which come in handy quite a bit when I need to go offsite.

Sorry for the digression....

[behindthepen]

nice specs. 1.5lbs. 0.5" thin. 9.7 " display.
1Ghz processor.
so far, wifi only.
has demo'd games, browsing, email, brushes, NY Times, all look nice.

and now, MLB.COM!