324 replies to this topic

[Seabass177]

Gammo: Beltre 1 yr. Deal for $9m with player option for $5m. Physical coming

[j44thor]

More Heyman: SI_JonHeyman

beltre boston deal likely for 2 years but also will include an player opt-out clause. whatever, nobody's improving like #redsox this winter

10-10.5 is steep but for 1-2 years it prob isn't a terrible deal. At least it doesn't lock them out of the premium bats like a 4 year deal prob would have.

[DieHardSoxFan1]

SI piece by Heyman

"Third baseman Adrian Beltre is close to a deal with the Red Sox, SI.com has learned.

Terms aren't known, but the contract is believed to be for at least two years and include a player opt-out option that could make Beltre a free agent again next year if he chooses. The A's were in the bidding until bowing out today."


Link

Opting out after '10 opens up a spot for Gonzalez, at the very least. Regardless, I'm a huge fan of this deal. I convinced myself last September that Boston would pursue Beltre aggressively. Glad they did.

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Drew
Youkilis
Victor
Ortiz
Cameron
Scutaro
Beltre

Beltre's biggest offensive attribute is his power. Slotting Scutaro, a patient hitter with above-average OBP skills, in front of the slugger is a perfectly cromulent move.

[Infield Infidel]

ugh on any opt-out clause. Isn't the point, or at least a big point, on signing Beltre centered around the fact there are few good 3B via FA next offseason?

If we are able to acquire a 1B at the trade deadline or next offseason, Beltre opting out would be helpful

[WayneHousieHOF]

If we are able to acquire a 1B at the trade deadline or next offseason, Beltre opting out would be helpful

True enough. It's a pretty big 'if' though. And Beltre opting out could in some way hurt our leverage in going after a particular 1B, as well, no? I don't know. Guess we need to see some details first on this, including if it's actually official.

[PedroKsBambino]

$5 mil is a ridiculously low player option. He'd have to fall off a cliff in order to want to exercise that given his track record

Is there an impact on AAV from a player option?

[j44thor]

If we are able to acquire a 1B at the trade deadline or next offseason, Beltre opting out would be helpful

An opt out for a 3B isn't that big a deal since you aren't getting any competition from the MFY or Mets at that position.
If he opts out that means the Sox got him at a discount for one year and can then decide to pay fair market value for him or go after a bigger bat.

This also gives them a season to better assess whether or not a "defense" first team can compete in the offensively powered AL East.

Edited by j44thor, 04 January 2010 - 07:42 PM.

[Quintanariffic]

Gammo: Beltre 1 yr. Deal for $9m with player option for $5m. Physical coming

If true, there isn't much to dislike about the deal, unless you are Mike Lowell. Keeps your trading options open and is for pretty short money.

[syoo8]

True enough. It's a pretty big 'if' though. And Beltre opting out could in some way hurt our leverage in going after a particular 1B, as well, no? I don't know. Guess we need to see some details first on this, including if it's actually official.

To your point (and of course all of this is speculation at this point)-- if Adrian Gonzalez were acquired mid-season 2010-- wouldn't this actually encourage an opt-out from Beltre (knowing that he would be relegated to bench duty in year two?) Just a thought.

[Bowlerman9]

$5 mil is a ridiculously low player option. He'd have to fall off a cliff in order to want to exercise that given his track record

Is there an impact on AAV from a player option?

No, since he is only guaranteed 1/9, his AAV will be 9.

What I wonder is if they could have given him 2/14 (AAV of 7) with salaries of 9 and 5 and allowed him to opt out after the first year, or if there was some special set of parameters in ARod's contract that allowed it to happen without being dis-allowed by the league.

[TomRicardo]

$5 mil is a ridiculously low player option. He'd have to fall off a cliff in order to want to exercise that given his track record

Is there an impact on AAV from a player option?

No, but if Beltre's hitting doesn't massively improve in Fenway he isn't worth more than 5 million AAV. .320 OBP is going to look real terrible at the bottom of this line up. Especially at a corner.

[bosockboy]

Getting Beltre for a worst case scenario of 2/14 is just sensational. They now have a truly elite run prevention unit and the flexibility to still improve the offense going forward.

Lackey, Cameron, Scutaro, Beltre and Hermida is a pretty formidable offseason makeover.

Lowell and Kotchman have no place on the roster now, and both will be traded I assume. The last piece would be a RHH 4th OF/1B type to complete a bench of Varitek, Hermida, and Hulett/Lowrie. I would expect Tatis to be that guy.

[jtn46]

No, since he is only guaranteed 1/9, his AAV will be 9.

What I wonder is if they could have given him 2/14 (AAV of 7) with salaries of 9 and 5 and allowed him to opt out after the first year, or if there was some special set of parameters in ARod's contract that allowed it to happen without being dis-allowed by the league.

I would assume the Sox offered him a true 2-year deal, but Beltre preferred what's effectively a 1-year deal that gives him a shot at FA not following a year where his OPS was in the .600's.

Edited by jtn46, 04 January 2010 - 07:52 PM.

[bsj]

Gammo: Beltre 1 yr. Deal for $9m with player option for $5m. Physical coming

This is a superb deal. Kudos to Theo and the rest of the team for getting this done.

[BoSox Rule]

Our defense is going to be insane.

Martinez
Youkilis
Pedroia
Scutaro
Beltre
Cameron
Ellsbury
Drew

Varitek
Lugo/Green
Lowell
Bay

I like it

[Eric Van]

He'll probably be a Type B FA again, so they're also picking up a sandwich pick if he's here for just a year.

If he has a monster year and is looking for big bucks, then there's a chance he's a Type A and you have the option of letting him walk, and the two draft picks significantly offset the talent you give up in an Adrian Gonzalez, etc. trade.

[Adirondack jack]

$5 mil is a ridiculously low player option. He'd have to fall off a cliff in order to want to exercise that given his track record

Agreed, most likely Beltre will be walking after 2010. The option only really protects Beltre in case he has another season like his 2009. This really shows the club's reluctance to have Youk at third exclusively or rotationally by holding onto Lowell and banking on Lowell improving from '09 with more distance from the surgery and perhaps a more regimented playing schedule, but that now seems out of the cards as Lowell will most likely have to be given away paying most if not all the freight.

[Sille Skrub]

breaking out....

[E5 Yaz]

I'm presuming this ends (for now) talk of an Adrian Gonzalez trade, even at midseason. Unless (speculation), Papi doesn't hit and they need to add a bat

[Eric Van]

No, but if Beltre's hitting doesn't massively improve in Fenway he isn't worth more than 5 million AAV. .320 OBP is going to look real terrible at the bottom of this line up. Especially at a corner.

His glove alone has averaged $5-$7M above average over his career*. He could be replacement level at the plate and be worth $5M.

*$7.2M at the rate FanGraphs has been using, $4.8 at a very desirable $3M per marginal win.

[Quintanariffic]

I'm presuming this ends (for now) talk of an Adrian Gonzalez trade, even at midseason. Unless (speculation), Papi doesn't hit and they need to add a bat

It's difficult for me to imagine any scenario where the hurt feelings and 2 remaining months of guaranteed money for Adrian Beltre would prevent the Sox from taking a run at Gonzalez if the price is right mid-season.

[E5 Yaz]

It's difficult for me to imagine any scenario where the hurt feelings and 2 remaining months of guaranteed money for Adrian Beltre would prevent the Sox from taking a run at Gonzalez if the price is right mid-season.

Well, if Gammons is correct and it's a player option for $5 for 2010, it could be more than two months of guaranteed money, but I hear what you're saying

[bsj]

Our defense is going to be insane.

Martinez
Youkilis
Pedroia
Scutaro
Beltre
Cameron
Ellsbury
Drew

Varitek
Lugo/Green
Lowell
Bay

I like it

Our offense, while clearly lacking a little in power, is full of good, solid, professional hitters.

I don't pretend this is the exact batting order....but look at this 1-9

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Ortiz
Youkilis
VMart
Cameron
JD Drew
Beltre
Scutaro

I love the makeup of this roster. Good, consistent professional hitters throughout. Assuming everyone hits what they are capable of, no real holes throughout. No breaks in that lineup. Lots of versatility. Lots of guys who can be moved up or down as the situation calls for it. Good speed peppered througout.

I am finding myself very excited at the prospects of this team.

Edited by bsj, 04 January 2010 - 07:57 PM.

[PedroKsBambino]

No, since he is only guaranteed 1/9, his AAV will be 9.

What I wonder is if they could have given him 2/14 (AAV of 7) with salaries of 9 and 5 and allowed him to opt out after the first year, or if there was some special set of parameters in ARod's contract that allowed it to happen without being dis-allowed by the league.

Not sure about that---there is a context in which a player option is considered guaranteed money I just couldn't remember if it is AAV calculation or not.

OK, I looked it up. It looks to me like it's a lux tax dodge. Does anyone read this differently?

(ii) A“Player Option Year” shall mean a championship season
covered by a Uniform Player’s Contract: (A) in which the amount
payable pursuant to paragraph 2 of the Contract becomes due or
guaranteed at the election of the Player; or (B) that can be nulli-
fied by a Player for a reason other than those set forth in para-
graph 7 of the Contract. APlayer Option Year shall be considered
a “Guaranteed Year” if, pursuant to the Player’s right to elect or
subject to his right to nullify, the terms of that year are guaran-
teed within the definition in Section A(8); provided, however,
that a Player Option Year shall not be considered a Guaranteed
Year if the payment the Player is to receive if he declines to exer-
cise his option or nullifies the championship season is more
than 50% of the Base Salary payable for that championship sea-
son.

I didn't look up A(8)....someone take their best shot!

Can download here MLB Basic Agreement

[Frisbetarian]

Our defense is going to be insane.


I like it

It better be, because with that offense they are going to have to allow under 700 runs to win 95 games.

[Quintanariffic]

Well, if Gammons is correct and it's a player option for $5 for 2010, it could be more than two months of guaranteed money, but I hear what you're saying

Right. But unless he completely disintegrates, he'll be declining that option or, worst case scenario, you eat the $5MM. That's peanuts for this team.

[jtn46]

It's difficult for me to imagine any scenario where the hurt feelings and 2 remaining months of guaranteed money for Adrian Beltre would prevent the Sox from taking a run at Gonzalez if the price is right mid-season.

And Beltre's strength defensively actually makes him a nice bench player if he decided to take the $5 million.

Wonderful move all around. Theo gets a Boras client on a cheap, short deal. The Sox aren't locked out of Gonzalez or any other corner infielder they feel might be more permanent, and if Beltre plays reasonably well, Theo has some good proof of his willingness to go with Plan B if he's being held up in trade discussions.

[BoSoxFink]

It better be, because with that offense they are going to have to allow under 700 runs to win 95 games.

They better pitch the shit of the baseball, because this lineup does not impress me at all. There is not a single guy in that lineup who I believe is capable of hitting 30 homers this upcoming season, other than Youk in my opinion, and that also is a big maybe.

[Quintanariffic]

It better be, because with that offense they are going to have to allow under 700 runs to win 95 games.

This aspect hasn't been discussed nearly enough.

Really not looking forward to the procession of 3-2 and 2-1 losses this year.

[Eric Van]

It's difficult for me to imagine any scenario where the hurt feelings and 2 remaining months of guaranteed money for Adrian Beltre would prevent the Sox from taking a run at Gonzalez if the price is right mid-season.

There is a scenario where Beltre and Ortiz are having great seasons and Jed wants to move Adrian Gonzalez at the deadline, and the Sox have decided that for 2011 they'd rather trade for Gonzalez and take two draft picks then re-up Beltre, who probably still prefers to play on the West Coast. (A strong year from the farm would make this likelier, as I pointed out earlier.)

In which case it might make sense to negotiate, at the deadline, for a trade that happens after the season is over. The drawback is that the agreed-upon deal would have to top other offers which included the value he would have in the last two months. And for Jed, there would be the tiny risk of a major injury in the interim. So you would have to really pay a premium.

[86spike]

I'm presuming this ends (for now) talk of an Adrian Gonzalez trade, even at midseason. Unless (speculation), Papi doesn't hit and they need to add a bat

Clearly, Theo believes Hoyer's stand on Adrian.

Excellent deal at these numbers!

Boston is going to potentially be the best pitching and defense team in MLB.

[dcmissle]

This aspect hasn't been discussed nearly enough.

Really not looking forward to the procession of 3-2 and 2-1 losses this year.

Different Sox, Fris likely remembers, so do I. Sort of:

http://www.baseball-.../CHW/1967.shtml

[TomRicardo]

They better pitch the shit of the baseball, because this lineup does not impress me at all. There is not a single guy in that lineup who I believe is capable of hitting 30 homers this upcoming season, other than Youk in my opinion, and that also is a big maybe.

I think both Ortiz and Youkilis are capable. The huge problem is the huge black hole in the line up we just signed. Unless of course Beltre started roiding again. That would actually be nice.

[BoSox Rule]

It better be, because with that offense they are going to have to allow under 700 runs to win 95 games.

Our offense isn't up there with the '03-'05 Red Sox or the current Yankees but it is still solid. I think it's safe to say we can get the following wOBA from each player.

C Martinez .370
1B Youkilis .400
2B Pedroia .370
SS Scutaro .330
3B Beltre .340
LF Cameron .345
CF Ellsbury .345
RF Drew .385
DH Ortiz .370

Is that an elite offense? No, but it is a solid 1-9 with some good offensive output coming from low offense positions like 2B, C, and possibly CF. And they're all great defenders except for Martinez and possibly Ellsbury. I'm not worried.

[DieHardSoxFan1]

It better be, because with that offense they are going to have to allow under 700 runs to win 95 games.

On paper, this is undoubtedly the weakest offensive club the Sox have fielded since 2001. But they've upgraded significantly at SS, offsetting much of the offensive gap between Bay and Cameron.

When juxtaposing Marco Scutaro's projections* to the Quartet of Clowns** that inhabited SS last season, you've improved by over 20 runs offensively. At catcher, the Sox can expect a decent bump from replacing much of Varitek's April-May-June-July "production" with Victor Martinez's bat. At third, a healthy and park-adjusted Beltre has been four or five runs better than Lowell with the bat. If he bounces back to '08 form and receives a nominal bump from Fenway's friendly left-field confines -- not an especially far-fetched aspiration -- he'll provide more runs with the bat than '08 and '09 Mike Lowell.

*Bill James
**Lugo, Lowrie, Green and Gonzalez

[Rudy Pemberton]

Hated Beltre when the rumors were 4 years, but this is a pretty fantastic signing. Given all the risks surrounding Beltre, a short term deal was a necessity from the Sox standpoint. If he bounces back and Fenway proves to be the boon for him that some expect, than the Sox get a great year out of him and possibly draft picks (wouldn't surprise me if there's a clause prohibiting an arb offer). I don't think he'll hit that much, esp. not against good pitching, but he'll bat 8th or 9th and at worst is a very good glove with pop.

[BoSoxFink]

I think both Ortiz and Youkilis are capable. The huge problem is the huge black hole in the line up we just signed. Unless of course Beltre started roiding again. That would actually be nice.

I suppose Ortiz is capable, but at the same time he can't hit good pitching. Which is what we will need him to do when it comes to it. In the playoffs they were just blowing fastballs by him.

[PrometheusWakefield]

And Beltre's strength defensively actually makes him a nice bench player if he decided to take the $5 million.

Wonderful move all around. Theo gets a Boras client on a cheap, short deal. The Sox aren't locked out of Gonzalez or any other corner infielder they feel might be more permanent, and if Beltre plays reasonably well, Theo has some good proof of his willingness to go with Plan B if he's being held up in trade discussions.

If we made a move for Adrian Gonzalez in midseason, what kind of wuss re-ups the player option for 2011 knowing he'd be a backup?

Love the contract. Love Beltre's confidence in going for the player option to prove himself. Basically totally happy with this team and I'm excited to see what happens to those ERAs with all those UZR guys in the field.

[bosockboy]

Theo has thrown all his chips into the run prevention pile; it's a pretty fascinating offseason plan. Presumably he must be convinced Ortiz can perform at a post-June 2009 level, and that he can find offensive improvement sprinkled between Scutaro's OBP, Beltre and Cameron's improved park effects hitting at Fenway, and a full year of VMart...Possibly more improvement from Ellsbury and a slight bounce back from Pedroia as well.

[Yaz4Ever]

I love this deal. I'm not a fan of Beltre, but I'll take him for that money over those terms. We could do a lot worse. If, at all possible, we're able to add Adrian Gonzalez at the break...wow! Depending on who we'd send in that deal, this team could be incredibly hard to beat in the second half and into the playoffs.

[bombdiggz]

This aspect hasn't been discussed nearly enough.

Really not looking forward to the procession of 3-2 and 2-1 losses this year.

The lineup analysis at baseball musings projected the Sox to score 902 runs this year with Kotchman as the 1B. I'm inclined to think the forecast goes up with this signing. The Sox were 3rd in runs last year (875) the Yankess led with 915. The collective upgrade of Scutaro and Martinez will make the significant offensive downgrade from Cameron to Bay minor which is probably negated by the strengthened lineup throughout with two black holes displaced. I happen to think the Red Sox will not have much trouble scoring runs, and they added several elite defenders and a front of the rotation starter. It appears to me the Red Sox Sox took the approach to most significantly improve the 2009 team that won 95 games while also maintaining their flexibility to improve going forward.

In regards to Beltre, there is not really anything not to like here. His defense is outstanding. He adds more power to the lineup. His floor and median projections are better than Kotchmans'. It looks like the infield defense and offense just got better. What happens with Kotchman now? I suppose he does have options, but a trade seems more likely.

Edited by bombdiggz, 04 January 2010 - 08:19 PM.

[Frisbetarian]

Our offense isn't up there with the '03-'05 Red Sox or the current Yankees but it is still solid. I think it's safe to say we can get the following wOBA from each player.

C Martinez .370
1B Youkilis .400
2B Pedroia .370
SS Scutaro .330
3B Beltre .340
LF Cameron .345
CF Ellsbury .345
RF Drew .385
DH Ortiz .370

Is that an elite offense? No, but it is a solid 1-9 with some good offensive output coming from low offense positions like 2B, C, and possibly CF. And they're all great defenders except for Martinez and possibly Ellsbury. I'm not worried.

You have some pretty optimistic numbers, are assuming everyone is healthy all year, and are ignoring the bench. I think this team as presently constituted will have trouble scoring 850 runs with have good health.

[radsoxfan]

This is more along the lines of what I expected. The player option makes much more sense than the team option. If Theo held firm on the length of the deal, it only made sense to make some concessions with the option. Can't have the best of both worlds. Boras is a jerk, but he's not a fool.

This isn't a bad deal for Beltre. Basically he has 14M guaranteed if he sucks or is injured this year. If he has even a decent year, he will opt out like JD did with the Dodgers (especially with the lack of 3B on the FA market). The added benefit to the Red Sox is that is since the player option is so low, it shouldn't preclude trying to move Beltre midseason if they get into the Adrian Gonzalez sweepstakes.

The downside is that if Beltre picks up his option, we almost assuredly will not want him back. If Boras doesn't see Beltre getting more than 1/5 as a FA in 2011, it's because he's hurt or sucks. And if that's the case, he won't be the Red Sox starting 3B in 2011. Essentially, we would either cut him loose and the 5M would turn into a buyout, or trade him while paying a good chunk of the freight. That's probably a risk worth taking to the keep the deal short and minimize the overall risk of the contract.

Of course this deal means Lowell is as good as gone. You have to wonder if the Red Sox will even be able to get 3M and a prospect for him at this point. Theo has zero leverage, and I wouldn't be surprised if he just has to cut him loose and pay all 12M. Maybe a team will give up a couple million bucks to assure they can have Lowell before he gets to choose his destination or force a bidding war (yes, I see the comedy of a bidding war for Mike Lowell). But I doubt much more.

On a side note, interesting that (if the reports are correct), Billy Beane was dreaming of a Scutaro/Beltre left side of the infield. Well, maybe he couldn't afford both, but apparently he at least wanted one of them. I wonder if he is getting annoyed being the GM of a small market team. Must be frustrating.

[bombdiggz]

This isn't a bad deal for Beltre. Basically he has 14M guaranteed if he sucks or is injured this year. If he has even a decent year, he will opt out like JD did with the Dodgers (especially with the lack of 3B on the FA market). The added benefit to the Red Sox is that is since the player option is so low, it shouldn't preclude trying to move Beltre midseason if they get into the Adrian Gonzalez sweepstakes.

The downside is that if Beltre picks up his option, we almost assuredly will not want him back. If Boras doesn't see Beltre getting more than 1/5 as a FA in 2011, it's because he's hurt or sucks. And if that's the case, he won't be the Red Sox starting 3B in 2011. Essentially, we would either cut him loose and the 5M would turn into a buyout, or trade him while paying a good chunk of the freight. That's probably a risk worth taking to the keep the deal short and minimize the overall risk of the contract.

He will undoubtedly be worth more than 5 M after the 2010. No way he exercises that option.

As PKB pointed out the option year is a small, yet innovative AAV dodge.

Edited by bombdiggz, 04 January 2010 - 08:28 PM.

[PrometheusWakefield]

If Beltre declines the player option, can we offer arbitration & collect draft picks if he declines?

[Adirondack jack]

The lineup analysis at baseball musings projected the Sox to score 902 runs this year with Kotchman as the 1B. I'm inclined to think the forecast goes up with this signing. The Sox were 3rd in runs last year (875) the Yankess led with 915. The collective upgrade of Scutaro and Martinez will make the significant offensive downgrade from Cameron to Bay minor which is probably negated by the strengthened lineup throughout with two black holes displaced. I happen to think the Red Sox will not have much trouble scoring runs, and they added several elite defenders and a front of the rotation starter. It appears to me the Red Sox Sox took the approach to most significantly improve the 2009 team that won 95 games while also maintaining their flexibility to improve going forward.

In regards to Beltre, there is not really anything not to like here. His defense is outstanding. He adds more power to the lineup. His floor and median projections are better than Kotchmans'. It looks like the infield defense and offense just got better. What happens with Kotchman now? I suppose he does have options, but a trade seems more likely.

As others have alluded to that forecast of 902 seems pretty high, although exceeding the 2006 club's 820 runs shouldnt be that unlikely of a proposition at this point when trying to forecast somewhat conservatively.

This deal either removes Kotchman from the mix or Lowell. Kotchman has more upside but Lowell is due quite a bit of cash. Reading the tea leaves a little, it looks like the FO is more interested in moving Lowell with a limited return than lose out on the possibility of Kotchman recapturing some of his lost value.

Edited by Adirondack jack, 04 January 2010 - 08:39 PM.

[radsoxfan]

He will undoubtedly be worth more than 5 M after the 2010. No way he exercises that option.

As PKB pointed out the option year is a small, yet innovative AAV dodge.

From the Red Sox perspective, it certainly may be a luxury tax dodge as PKB suggests.

But it's not impossible that Beltre exercises the option. There is a non-zero chance he has a major injury or has a catastrophic year at the plate. I agree its unlikely he is that bad, but the deal does have the added benefit to Beltre that he is assured 14M in a worst case scenario.

Edited by radsoxfan, 04 January 2010 - 08:39 PM.

[smastroyin]

It better be, because with that offense they are going to have to allow under 700 runs to win 95 games.

95 wins is a .586 winning percentage.

By Pythag: Win% = 1/(1+(RA/RS)^2)

RS = RA/(sqrt(1/win%-1))

RS = 832

Last year the Sox scored 872 and allowed 736. So, the operative questions is, given the other 5 guys and bench being about the same, will
Bay+Lowell+SS crap+too much Varitek
- (Cameron+Beltre+Scutaro+Ideal Martinez usage)
-----------------------------
> 40 runs?

I actually don't think that will be too hard. I'm more worried about that status quo question - mainly Ortiz. If you asked me to throw out a guess I would say they end up at around 850 runs.

The second real question is whether, and I guess we will find out, there is a diminishing return as you add more on the defensive side of the ball. The Mariners allowed only 692 runs last year, and that led the league. Even with the addition of Lackey and all this defense, can the Sox really expect to be much lower than that? Interesting questions.

[bombdiggz]

As others have alluded to that forecast of 902 seems pretty high, although exceeding the 2006 club's 820 runs shouldnt be that unlikely of a proposition at this point when trying to forecast somewhat conservatively.

This deal either removes Kotchman from the mix or Lowell. Kotchman has more upside but Lowell a fair haul of cash. Reading the tea leaves a little, it looks like the FO is more interested in moving Lowell with a limited return than lose out on the possibility of Kotchman recovering some of his value.

Just a note that the lineup analysis tool only uses the nine regulars and doesn't account for days off or injuries, so the actual total is always lower than that forecasted. Nevertheless, the 2010 Red Sox should easily be a very good offensive team.

Edit: My money is on 860 runs.

Edited by bombdiggz, 04 January 2010 - 08:49 PM.