171 replies to this topic

[4-6-3]

Per Rosenthal, Urbon states Bay has other offers that are of greater interest.

Rosenthal just posted in twitter. Not sure if he's referring to a new offer from the Sox or not.

Link

[SoxScout]

Jason Bay's tenure with the Red Sox appears over.

The free-agent left fielder has rejected the team's latest offer and is entertaining better proposals from other clubs, according to his agent, Joe Urbon.

"We don't agree with their evaluation of the player," Urbon said. "Frankly, we have other offers on the table that are of greater interest to Jason."

Urbon left open the possibility that the Red Sox could circle back in the negotiations, but did not sound optimistic that it would happen, saying Bay was prepared to "move on."

http://msn.foxsports...er-from-Red-Sox

[OCD SS]

I can't say I'm either surprised or disappointed. Holliday looks like he stands a much better chance of staying in LF, and a younger option (be it a Hermida platoon or someone else) both seem like better long term fits.

[Foulkey Reese]

I can't say I'm either surprised or disappointed. Holliday looks like he stands a much better chance of staying in LF, and a younger option (be it a Hermida platoon or someone else) both seem like better long term fits.

Boras is looking for Teixeira money for him though. I hate the idea of the Sox "needing" another Boras client. I have a feeling we're going to see a platoon out there.

[4-6-3]

They could always go with their defensive theme and pickup Beltre and Cameron and hope for the best. Although, Boris has Beltre and who knows the price tag he has on Beltre.

[bombdiggz]

Boras is looking for Teixeira money for him though. I hate the idea of the Sox "needing" another Boras client. I have a feeling we're going to see a platoon out there.

I have a feeling you are right. My first preference would be to bring in Cameron who would solidify the outfield defense and serve as a lefty masher.But Jonny Gomes, who was just non-tendered might be also worth considering for the other side of a Hermida platoon. While he doesn't come with the immense defensive benefits Cameron does he did mash lefties to the tune of a .914 OPS last year.

Edit: Ewww. While still having some lingering hatred for him from his days with the Rays, fangraphs has given me another reason to dislike him. Gomes defense is atrocious, he has posted a -23.4, -52.7 (sss), -23.8 UZR/150 the last three years. Damn that is bad. We can do better.

Edited by bombdiggz, 12 December 2009 - 05:16 PM.

[cwright]

Edit: Ewww. While still having some lingering hatred for him from his days with the Rays, fangraphs has given me another reason to dislike him. Gomes defense is atrocious, he has posted a -23.4, -52.7 (sss), -23.8 UZR/150 the last three years. Damn that is bad. We can do better.

Gomes is the outfield version of Dan Uggla. He gets terrible jumps, isn't all that fast, and has hands of stone, from what I've seen. Although - once he gets a full head of steam he can charge into the infield and do some damage, as I recall.
(On the other hand, if we were assembling an all-defensive-liability team for 2009, he'd be worth considering, along with Uggla, Bay, Lugo, and the corpses of Tek and Lowell.)

[Adirondack jack]

They could always go with their defensive theme and pickup Beltre and Cameron and hope for the best. Although, Boris has Beltre and who knows the price tag he has on Beltre.

If potential suitors for Bay are willing to exceed the rumoured 4/60 deal from the Sox or Holliday is in line to receive a Teixeira contract, the defensive theme is the way to go anyways. Hopefully in the meanwhile they are keeping the Halladay talks honest and can swoop if they lose out on both Holliday and Bay.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Boris has Beltre and who knows the price tag he has on Beltre.

He's probably going to hold out for Moose and Squirrel. (Sorry....)

Gomes would make us pine for the Gold Glove defense of Jason Bay.

Cameron would be an interesting option, and would allow us to move Ellsbury to LF (though I would think the organization would want to give him a little more time to develop as a CF, given that his offense will play better there). But I thought Cameron was a near-lock to sign with the Cubs...?

[4-6-3]

Per Bradford, a team has offered Bay an offer beyond four years.

Link

[PaulinMyrBch]

The Sox aren't stupid. Boras is waiting for Bay to go down so the market for Holliday has a high opening bid.

We're not going to engage in a bidding war over Bay, and drive the bidding up on both players simultaneously. Especially if it is truly Holliday that we want. There just is no comeback to Boras if he says "you bid 5/75 last week for Bay and he took more to go to the Mets, so we need to start this discussion in the 17 per, minimum 5 year range or he's going back to the Cardinals for less to bat next to Albert."

Bay's agent may not like it, Bay may not like it, but the Sox can't afford to lose a bidding war for Bay, it will cost them down the road if they are in on Holliday.

[SoxFanSince57]

Certainly seems like Bay and his agent are trying to "tease out" a five year offer from some/any team. Wonder who will give him more money and more years?

Seems like a game of "chicken". His agent is pretty clearly telling everyone that the Sox don't "own JB" and "Bay will sign if you give him the best 5-year deal". Perhaps the Cards are telling them that Bay can get 5 years if they don't sign Holliday. If he has a conditional offer in his back pocket, it might have emboldened them to use the phrase time to "move on".

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 12 December 2009 - 05:47 PM.

[bsj]

This news does not surprise me in the least. As is usually the case, Bay and Holliday are both hoping that the other signs first so as to increase demand for themselves. Boras knows the Yankees have an opening in the outfield. Why wouldn't he ask for the cash he is asking for?

I happen to be high on Holliday. I think he's a tremendous all around ball player, and a far better fit for the Sox' system than Bay. I'd like to figure out a way to lock Holliday up BEFORE Bay signs so as to potentially keep the situation from getting out of hand as it did last year, but I know with Boras it is unlikely that will happen.

Teixeira signed for 8 years/180 last season (at 29). At 30, at a position where his ability to maintain his speed is at a premium, he cannot legitimately expect to get more than a what, 6 year deal? 6/110? Too much for the Sox to spend? Too little for Holliday to accept?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Teixeira signed for 8 years/180 last season (at 29). At 30, at a position where his ability to maintain his speed is at a premium, he cannot legitimately expect to get more than a what, 6 year deal? 6/110? Too much for the Sox to spend? Too little for Holliday to accept?

I think this is the main problem. The answer to both questions is probably yes. The Sox aren't going to want to sign him to a 6 year contract, though I can see them going 5. Holliday isn't going to want to settle for less than 20, though I can see him taking 19 or so. But it's even less likely he'll sign for less than 6 years.

I expect the Red Sox to do what they always do. They'll determine the amount of dollars and years they feel is too much to offer, and they will not cross that line. Boras will do what he always does. He'll determine how much Holliday is worth, then how much he can get for him and toss the first number out the window. Someone will pay something close to what Boras is asking... and if nothing else, someone will be willing to pay more than the Red Sox. I can't fault Theo and company for this, but it can be a bit frustrating at times.

[someoneanywhere]

Certainly seems like Bay and his agent are trying to "tease out" a five year offer from some/any team. Wonder who will give him more money and more years?

Seems like a game of "chicken". His agent is pretty clearly telling everyone that the Sox don't "own JB" and "Bay will sign if you give him the best 5-year deal". Perhaps the Cards are telling them that Bay can get 5 years if they don't sign Holliday. If he has a conditional offer in his back pocket, it might have emboldened them to use the phrase time to "move on".

I don't think so. Without sounding like the sky is falling -- in fact I am on record as looking forward to, and hoping, for aggressive plays and non-plays that make the team younger and more dynamic in more ways, even if 2010 is Theo's "bridge" to that -- but Bay is gone. The element at work here that needs more attention is the Lowell dynamic. Here's a guy who took one fewer year, and less money, to stay. In the same week things getted hotted up on Bay, Lowell is spun off to Texas: partly because he is affordable (the Sox to eat, the Rangers to pay the difference).

Bay is not going to leave himself open to that possibility. If he stays in Boston it will be because Boston's offer comps to other offers. And Boston's offer ain't going to comp.

[mr_smith02]

I think this is the main problem. The answer to both questions is probably yes. The Sox aren't going to want to sign him to a 6 year contract, though I can see them going 5. Holliday isn't going to want to settle for less than 20, though I can see him taking 19 or so. But it's even less likely he'll sign for less than 6 years.

I expect the Red Sox to do what they always do. They'll determine the amount of dollars and years they feel is too much to offer, and they will not cross that line. Boras will do what he always does. He'll determine how much Holliday is worth, then how much he can get for him and toss the first number out the window. Someone will pay something close to what Boras is asking... and if nothing else, someone will be willing to pay more than the Red Sox. I can't fault Theo and company for this, but it can be a bit frustrating at times.

I think Snod's 100% right. If Bay actually signs somewhere else I see the MFYs swooping in on Holliday and Theo walking us all out on the bridge we've heard so much about since the winter meetings.

I am left to wonder how the Holliday bidding will affect the FO's approach to Beltre given the bad taste left in its mouth from the Teixeira bidding. Yes, I understand it's all business, but I do wonder if it will impact the FO's approach.

[Rough Carrigan]

Bay will be making too much to eat. And the reason Lowell's worth paying to go away is that he had a hip problem that required surgery and left him with all the mobility of a blue haired grandma in a shawl. Is Bay really worried about the same thing happening to him? For all the talk about poor Mike Lowell, poor Mike Lowell's gonna make $12 million next year and probably can't field adequately to play much in the field. It's not like they just threw him overboard when an ARod or David Wright became available.

[Rudy Pemberton]

What is Bay looking for? I hear about him rejecting offers; but I would assume that he's making counter offers, yet we've heard relatively little in that regard. Just seems odd.

[mabrowndog]

The only way I'll be disappointed is if Bay signs with one of the teams whose draft pick is protected. The Mets are one such team.

[George from Maine]

If the Sox were not willing to beat a 4 year/$65 million offer from the Mets then the Sox have decided to move on from Bay.

[Eric Van]

I think Snod's 100% right. If Bay actually signs somewhere else I see the MFYs swooping in on Holliday and Theo walking us all out on the bridge we've heard so much about since the winter meetings.

Well, that bridge could include signing Carl Crawford next winter for substantially less than the Yankees pay for Holliday, since the Yankees won't be bidding against us, and the market overvalues power and undervalues defense. You don't think the Yankees know that? Who do you think they'd rather sign to a long term deal to patrol the big Bidet LF, even if the salaries will be equal, which they won't?

The Yankees actually have the advantage because the two best LF in the game are FA in successive years, and the guy who is the better fit for us is a FA first and the guy who is the better fit for them is on the market the next year, and our guy has a skill set you pay premium for and their guy has one you can get at a discount. Squandering that advantage by signing Holliday now would actually be pretty stupid.

Ellsbury, Pedroia, Fielder, Youkilis, Drew, Martinez, Crawford, Beltre, Scutaro would not be an elite offensive team but it would still score plenty of runs. And it might be one of the best defensive teams in history (outside of C).

If the Yankees want to be stupid I have no problem with it at all.

[The Boomer]

I don't think so. Without sounding like the sky is falling -- in fact I am on record as looking forward to, and hoping, for aggressive plays and non-plays that make the team younger and more dynamic in more ways, even if 2010 is Theo's "bridge" to that -- but Bay is gone. The element at work here that needs more attention is the Lowell dynamic. Here's a guy who took one fewer year, and less money, to stay. In the same week things getted hotted up on Bay, Lowell is spun off to Texas: partly because he is affordable (the Sox to eat, the Rangers to pay the difference).

Bay is not going to leave himself open to that possibility. If he stays in Boston it will be because Boston's offer comps to other offers. And Boston's offer ain't going to comp.

My gut feeling is that if Bay goes elsewhere (or if he doesn't), Holiday ends up with the Yankees. Theo's warnings about the bridge season possibly recognizes this dynamic. It's more likely that Bay and Holiday will not be in Boston than many of us like to admit. The Yankee faithful will drool at the prospect of Bay leaving Boston but Holiday going the Bronx. Eventually, I believe it will be a blessing in disguise because, as we all know, the Red Sox must use their financial advantage against almost everybody but the Yankees wisely to effectively compete. Spending indiscriminately and wastefully doesn't win championships. Frankly, that's what the Yankees finally overcame last winter. Of course, they spent a significant fraction of a billion dollars to sign their 3 big ticket players. They can target Holiday, Halladay, Mauer or anyone they want who becomes available. By contrast, the Sox need to be disciplined about their spending and pick their spots to raid their treasury.

This situation is reminding me more and more of the bridge year where Clemens left and the Sox were left without an ace until Duquette traded for Pedro the next winter. For a variety of reasons, management might have chosen to horde their resources before this season starts to have the financial flexibility needed for a mid season trade or for signing free agents in next winter's deeper class of mercenaries. The Red Sox are relatively well set up with their pitching but would like to strengthen several parts of the everyday lineup. To do so, it appears that they will take some reasonable gambles (Hermida or Kotchman or both) before they will overspend for this year's free agents.

[George from Maine]

I don't see the Yankees throwing big money at Holiday. They can bring back Damon on a short-term deal and remain a superior offensive team. Their money would be better spent on pitching.

Jonny Gomes was just let go by the Reds. How about Gomes as a platoon partner in left with Hermida? Gomes has good numbers against lefthanders -- .914 OPS in 2009 and .844 over the last three years.

[CaptainLaddie]

I don't see the Yankees throwing big money at Holiday. They can bring back Damon on a short-term deal and remain a superior offensive team. Their money would be better spent on pitching.

Jonny Gomes was just let go by the Reds. How about Gomes as a platoon partner in left with Hermida? Gomes has good numbers against lefthanders -- .914 OPS in 2009 and .844 over the last three years.

I see you didn't read the thread.

Edited by CaptainLaddie, 12 December 2009 - 08:52 PM.

[MartyBarrettMVP]

Per Bradford, a team has offered Bay an offer beyond four years.

Link

Is it weird that we do not know the identity of this mystery team yet?

[Rudy Pemberton]

Ellsbury, Pedroia, Fielder, Youkilis, Drew, Martinez, Crawford, Beltre, Scutaro would not be an elite offensive team but it would still score plenty of runs. And it might be one of the best defensive teams in history (outside of C).

It would also involve a pretty substantial increase in the Sox payroll to field this team, no? How would you acquire Fielder? How much would you pay to retain Martinez and sign Crawford?

Regardless, that's an '11 lineup. What about '10?

Mike Cameron seems like the natural move to me. Frankly, I'd love to see the Sox sign Nick Johnson too, and let Youks play 3B for a year.

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Youkilis
Drew
Martinez
Ortiz
Cameron
Johnson
Scutaro

That's a pretty sick lineup.

[Max Power]

Is Matt Holliday really a $20 million player? Unless he signs with the Yankees, I don't see it. Outside of their contracts, the only ones that have averaged that amount were Manny, the first A-Rod, and one year of Barry Bonds. The Yankees are perfectly happy throwing that kind of money at really good players like Teixeira and Sabathia, but the rest of baseball seems to only want to get to the magic $20 million area with Hall of Fame level talents. Matt Holliday's in the really good category and I'd imagine he'll end up with a Carlos Beltran type payday.

Has anyone (Eric?) looked into aging patterns of particularly streaky hitters. Bay's one of those guys who looks like he's swinging blindfolded when he's going bad. It seems to me that players whose slumps are worse than average eventually fall off a cliff instead of aging gracefully. As such I'd have huge reservations about going more than 4 years with him. But that could just be something that makes intuitive sense to me but has no basis in reality.

[mr_smith02]

Well, that bridge could include signing Carl Crawford next winter for substantially less than the Yankees pay for Holliday, since the Yankees won't be bidding against us, and the market overvalues power and undervalues defense. You don't think the Yankees know that? Who do you think they'd rather sign to a long term deal to patrol the big Bidet LF, even if the salaries will be equal, which they won't?

The Yankees actually have the advantage because the two best LF in the game are FA in successive years, and the guy who is the better fit for us is a FA first and the guy who is the better fit for them is on the market the next year, and our guy has a skill set you pay premium for and their guy has one you can get at a discount. Squandering that advantage by signing Holliday now would actually be pretty stupid.

Ellsbury, Pedroia, Fielder, Youkilis, Drew, Martinez, Crawford, Beltre, Scutaro would not be an elite offensive team but it would still score plenty of runs. And it might be one of the best defensive teams in history (outside of C).

If the Yankees want to be stupid I have no problem with it at all.

IMO, the Yankees didn't need Granderson and made the move simply to incrementally improve on a team that won the World Series and wants to reestablish itself as the dominant team in MLB. If they can add Holliday I truly think they will. Holliday in that lineup with C.C., Burnett and Andy P. pitching makes them odds on favorites to repeat...something their rabid fan base would eat up. Then, if they really covet Crawford next off-season I am certain they will have the wherewithal to bring him in and move him or Granderson to RF.

I guess I cannot buy the premise that the Yanks signing Holliday would be stupid. I think it would make them an even better team.

[SumnerH]

Is Matt Holliday really a $20 million player? Unless he signs with the Yankees, I don't see it. Outside of their contracts, the only ones that have averaged that amount were Manny, the first A-Rod, and one year of Barry Bonds.

And Johan Santana.

[Rough Carrigan]

Is Matt Holliday really a $20 million player? Unless he signs with the Yankees, I don't see it. Outside of their contracts, the only ones that have averaged that amount were Manny, the first A-Rod, and one year of Barry Bonds. The Yankees are perfectly happy throwing that kind of money at really good players like Teixeira and Sabathia, but the rest of baseball seems to only want to get to the magic $20 million area with Hall of Fame level talents. Matt Holliday's in the really good category and I'd imagine he'll end up with a Carlos Beltran type payday.

Has anyone (Eric?) looked into aging patterns of particularly streaky hitters. Bay's one of those guys who looks like he's swinging blindfolded when he's going bad. It seems to me that players whose slumps are worse than average eventually fall off a cliff instead of aging gracefully. As such I'd have huge reservations about going more than 4 years with him. But that could just be something that makes intuitive sense to me but has no basis in reality.

I tend to agree with what you say about Holliday though I think he's worth more than Bay right now. In the long run I worry about what you might call the "lummox" factor. The guy's a big, heavy guy, not fat but no stringbean. I don't think these guys tend to age very well. Here's Holliday's list of most comparables through age 29, courtesy of baseball-reference:

Wally Berger (944)
Chick Hafey (937) *
Lance Berkman (933)
Magglio Ordonez (931)
Dave Parker (925)
Hack Wilson (923) *
Fred Lynn (919)
Mike Sweeney (915)
Tim Salmon (914)
Larry Walker

Parker and Hack Wilson got derailed from stardom by cocaine and whiskey, respectively, and fat. Fred Lynn's career just kind of very slowly diminished. I don't know. I don't attach huge importance to these things but it sure would've been nice to see a Frank Robinson in there or someone else who retained their skills at only slightly diminished levels through age 35 which is what you'd be buying Holliday up to with a 6 year contract. He'll be 30 in January. So you'd be buying his age 30 through 35, inclusive seasons.

[The Boomer]

It would also involve a pretty substantial increase in the Sox payroll to field this team, no? How would you acquire Fielder? How much would you pay to retain Martinez and sign Crawford?

Regardless, that's an '11 lineup. What about '10?

Mike Cameron seems like the natural move to me. Frankly, I'd love to see the Sox sign Nick Johnson too, and let Youks play 3B for a year.

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Youkilis
Drew
Martinez
Ortiz
Cameron
Johnson
Scutaro

That's a pretty sick lineup.

This seems like a more realistic move. However, unless you trade Kotchman, why sign Nick Johnson too? He is more established offensively but, almost every season, he is a huge injury risk. Kotchman ought to be about as productive, is younger and ought to cost less even with arbitration looming. Cameron might be somewhat (but not strictly) a platoon player with both Ellsbury and Hermida. Another righty hitter who can play centerfield (but mostly platoon in LF with Hermida) is another alternative. If there is another available righthanded hitting good defensive outfielder who falls somewhere between just non-tendered Anderson (though I won't be surprised if they bring him back) and Cameron on the talent scale, that player might instead be targeted.

[Rudy Pemberton]

This seems like a more realistic move. However, unless you trade Kotchman, why sign Nick Johnson too? He is more established offensively but, almost every season, he is a huge injury risk. Kotchman ought to be about as productive, is younger and ought to cost less even with arbitration looming.

Because you need adequate depth. If Kotchman is your starter, who is your backup? I think that Kotchman and Hermida both could be very good; but they could also be pretty lousy. Kotchman was awful for the Sox last year; Hermida has been crappy for two of the past three seasons. The Sox need to have reliable options at LF and 1B other than these guys, so if they play poorly or get hurt, we aren't stuck with Reddick and Bates (or similar caliber players). Nick Johnson is an injury risk and is a crappy defender, but he's potentially undervalued because of that. He gets on base, and has some power, which are needed if the team loses Bay and doesn't sign Holliday. I don't know; just seems like these are low risk moves which wouldn't tie up a lot of money for a lot of years, which would allow the Sox to be more flexible next season when there's a better FA class.

[OCD SS]

Bay's agent may not like it, Bay may not like it, but the Sox can't afford to lose a bidding war for Bay, it will cost them down the road if they are in on Holliday.

This makes no sense. I'm quite sure that Bay and his agent would love to have the Sox in a bidding war, it just doesn't look like it's going to happen.

Holliday was never going to sign before Bay did, so I don't see the point in saying that because Holliday will cost more (and he was always expected to get more), that the Sox have to get Bay. The only reason they should have to get Bay is if he's who they want playing LF for the next 5 years, and it doesn't look like that's the case.

[xpisblack]

This makes no sense. I'm quite sure that Bay and his agent would love to have the Sox in a bidding war, it just doesn't look like it's going to happen.

Holliday was never going to sign before Bay did, so I don't see the point in saying that because Holliday will cost more (and he was always expected to get more), that the Sox have to get Bay. The only reason they should have to get Bay is if he's who they want playing LF for the next 5 years, and it doesn't look like that's the case.

I could be misreading it, but I think that was PaulinMyrBch's point: the Sox can't afford to lose a bidding war, which means they're slightly more likely to stay out of any such war that might arise. Bay and his agent want the Sox involved in the bidding, of course, to drive prices up, but the Sox would be unwise to get in the middle of bids and counterbids, then lose out and have to offer even more to Holliday (and, more to the point, Boras).

The Sox don't have to get Bay, but if they're interested in Holliday then they can't make Bay any offer that they're not willing to increase by 20+% to get Holliday.

[Rough Carrigan]

Hmm. I'm watching the MLB network replay of game 163 in 2007 between the Padres and Rockies and in the top of the 8th, Holliday brutally misplays a ball hit to left by Brian Giles. Kind of the going back bookend to his misplay against the Dodgers in the NLDS this year.

[OCD SS]

I could be misreading it, but I think that was PaulinMyrBch's point: the Sox can't afford to lose a bidding war, which means they're slightly more likely to stay out of any such war that might arise. Bay and his agent want the Sox involved in the bidding, of course, to drive prices up, but the Sox would be unwise to get in the middle of bids and counterbids, then lose out and have to offer even more to Holliday (and, more to the point, Boras).

The Sox don't have to get Bay, but if they're interested in Holliday then they can't make Bay any offer that they're not willing to increase by 20+% to get Holliday.

The FA market is always a bidding war. Just because not signing Bay increases Holliday/ Boras's leverage doesn't mean that they should just sign Bay (say for 5/$85M). The risk of overpaying for one doesn't mean they should just go and overpay for the other.

Part of our difference is that I see Bay as plan C. Holliday is the better player and is younger, and I can see paying a premium for that. I am not particularly afraid of the Yankees overbidding, either. The Sox have the financial flexibility to go toe to toe with them on a large contract if they choose. Them choosing not to is a different issue.

My reading of the press release that Holliday "dreams of playing in NY" is that Boras had indications that neither team was in on him, and he was going to try to entice them to get in the market, otherwise he only had one large market team to work with, and he knows that the Sox will just sit on their value judgment and wait, and their value judgment/ offer was probalby still going to be higher than the Cardinals. Keep in mind that Teixeira really did have a single destination in mind, and we didn't hear one word about it from Boras until after he signed.

I see plan B as a trade or platoon that makes them younger and more athletic. The only way Bay made sense to me is if he was wrapped up quickly and (relatively) cheaply, allowing Theo to focus resources on other issues. Since that didn't happen I would rather not pay a high premium for a guy whose defense already looks pretty bad and who I don't think will age well.

[paulftodd]

I don't see the Yankees throwing big money at Holiday. They can bring back Damon on a short-term deal and remain a superior offensive team. Their money would be better spent on pitching.

Problem is Damon is looking for 4 years, but even so, say he takes a 2 year deal. I mean, if the Red Sox had a choice between the 36 yo Damon in LF (0 runs saved per plus/minus) and the 30 yo Matt Holliday (14 runs saved in LF in 2009), it's a no brainer, fans would be screaming to sign Holliday (or Bay for that matter who was - 1 in runs saved). Markets weak, who knows what it will be like next year or in future years. You sign Holliday for 6 years and you don't need to worry about replacing Damon in 1-2 years.

If any team can afford Holliday it's the Yankees, budget or no budget, especially if they back load the contract. If the Red Sox sign Bay or don't pursue Holliday, the Yankees can probably get him pretty cheap if they provide more years.

For the Red Sox, IMHO Bay makes more sense, he is a known quantity and when he becomes a liability in LF in a couple of years he can DH and take over Papis job, and he will be cheaper than Holliday. However, if they do pursue Holliday and get him I won't be unhappy, and just as important, this would mean the Yankees did not get him. If they try a LF by committee approach like Seattle, focusing on defense and sacrificing offense, I won't be too happy. That crap does not work at Fenway and I think this team is too smart to try it.

As for the loaded Manny question by another commenter. Which Manny are we talking about, the PED enhanced one who faked injury to get out of a contract or the soon to be 38 Manny who would be a FA next year and making 20 million if we renewed his option for 2010. In any event, the answer is yes, Manny for Bay was worth it. In 200 games he had 156 of a stat I can't mention.

Edited by paulftodd, 12 December 2009 - 10:32 PM.

[xpisblack]

The FA market is always a bidding war. Just because not signing Bay increases Holliday/ Boras's leverage doesn't mean that they should just sign Bay (say for 5/$85M). The risk of overpaying for one doesn't mean they should just go and overpay for the other.

Part of our difference is that I see Bay as plan C. Holliday is the better player and is younger, and I can see paying a premium for that. I am not particularly afraid of the Yankees overbidding, either. The Sox have the financial flexibility to go toe to toe with them on a large contract if they choose. Them choosing not to is a different issue.

My reading of the press release that Holliday "dreams of playing in NY" is that Boras had indications that neither team was in on him, and he was going to try to entice them to get in the market, otherwise he only had one large market team to work with, and he knows that the Sox will just sit on their value judgment and wait, and their value judgment/ offer was probalby still going to be higher than the Cardinals. Keep in mind that Teixeira really did have a single destination in mind, and we didn't hear one word about it from Boras until after he signed.

I see plan B as a trade or platoon that makes them younger and more athletic. The only way Bay made sense to me is if he was wrapped up quickly and (relatively) cheaply, allowing Theo to focus resources on other issues. Since that didn't happen I would rather not pay a high premium for a guy whose defense already looks pretty bad and who I don't think will age well.

I was just trying to rephrase what you said didn't make any sense and had apparently misinterpreted. I don't think either of us was trying to say that the Sox should just sign Bay; the point was that if the Sox want Holliday, they should do whatever they can to keep the price reasonable, and part of that involves not making an offer to Bay that can be used against them later in the Holliday negotiations. If they enter a bidding war for Bay and don't sign him, they lose standing for their negotiations with Holliday/Boras.

I agree that Bay should be plan C; if he is, though, then it makes even more sense for the Sox just to keep out of the Bay bidding. If the Sox stay away from Bay now, they don't really lose anything in the Holliday chase and don't end up with an inferior player to the one they want or a price tag they helped to inflate for the player they really want.

[PaulinMyrBch]

I was just trying to rephrase what you said didn't make any sense and had apparently misinterpreted. I don't think either of us was trying to say that the Sox should just sign Bay; the point was that if the Sox want Holliday, they should do whatever they can to keep the price reasonable, and part of that involves not making an offer to Bay that can be used against them later in the Holliday negotiations. If they enter a bidding war for Bay and don't sign him, they lose standing for their negotiations with Holliday/Boras.

I agree that Bay should be plan C; if he is, though, then it makes even more sense for the Sox just to keep out of the Bay bidding. If the Sox stay away from Bay now, they don't really lose anything in the Holliday chase and don't end up with an inferior player to the one they want or a price tag they helped to inflate for the player they really want.

xpisblack stated exactly what I was attempting to say, just better.

[sleepyjose03]

Maybe this isn't the best place for it - but I'm surprised nobody has brought up the idea of attempting to trade for Crawford now. Everybody seems pretty comfortable w/ the fact he will be up for grabs next year, since we all doubt that the Rays will give him the type of contract he is looking for. While I realize the Rays have a good young team down there and would not be very open to lowering their chances at contending this year - I think there are still two possibilities which we could explore:

a) The Sox look into acquiring him now - with the provision that he signs an extension. Since the Rays are only a few seasons removed from playing in a WS - I'm sure they won't be looking to move him the way the Jays are w/ Halladay. However - if the Sox could come up w/ an offer that would provide them w/ cost-controlled ML ready talent - they could view this as maximizing their return on a player who the whole world expects to leave after the season. The big issue here is how much to you give up for an extra season and first shot negotiating rights with a player who you could sign as a FA in a year. Also - how much would the Rays be willing to take in return - would a deal centered around Hermida be enough? He could (realistically) provide a young, cost controlled player who could step in and play at the ML level at the very least. Would they consider some other ML talents, like Lowrie or Kotchman? Or would they demand a King's ransom, and ask for Buchholz, Kelly, and more?

b) The Sox wait until the trade deadline, and see if the Rays are considered contenders or not. The advantage here is that if the Rays appear to be out of it at this point, they could be more willing to make a deal for Crawford. The risk, of course, is that they could very well be contending, and would therefore not consider moving Crawford at all. Although, in that scenario, the Sox would seemingly just have to wait until the end of the year and he's a FA - which is basically where we are right now.

I don't think it's very likely that the Rays would be amenable to moving Crawford - at least not for a price that would be acceptable to the Sox - but I definitely think that this is an angle that Theo should be looking into, especially if Boras and Holliday are committed to drawing this out and getting top dollar.

[Comeback Kid]

What is Bay looking for? I hear about him rejecting offers; but I would assume that he's making counter offers, yet we've heard relatively little in that regard. Just seems odd.

Boston Herald

Bay's agent countered the Boston offer with six years at $16-18MM annually.

[epraz]

The Sox have the financial flexibility to go toe to toe with them on a large contract if they choose. Them choosing not to is a different issue.

I think you fundamentally misunderstand the nature of the Red Sox' finances, vis a vis the Yankees'. When have the Sox ever outbid the Yankees? Even assuming your conceit doesn't change the answer. I'll re-phrase: When have the Sox ever chosen to outbid the Yankees?

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think you fundamentally misunderstand the nature of the Red Sox' finances, vis a vis the Yankees'. When have the Sox ever outbid the Yankees? Even assuming your conceit doesn't change the answer. I'll re-phrase: When have the Sox ever chosen to outbid the Yankees?

Weren't the Yankees one of the Manny suitors back in 2001? I don't know how serious they were, but I seem to remember that they were involved.

[Andrew]

Weren't the Yankees one of the Manny suitors back in 2001? I don't know how serious they were, but I seem to remember that they were involved.

The Red Sox wanted Mussina but were outbid by the Yankees. Manny was their fallback plan.

[smastroyin]

The Red Sox wanted Mussina but were outbid by the Yankees. Manny was their fallback plan.

They weren't actually outbid, Mussina chose the Yankees. IIRC The Yankees offered more money but the Red Sox contract was worth more in NPV (less deferred money, bigger signing bonus).

[OCD SS]

the point was that if the Sox want Holliday, they should do whatever they can to keep the price reasonable, and part of that involves not making an offer to Bay that can be used against them later in the Holliday negotiations. If they enter a bidding war for Bay and don't sign him, they lose standing for their negotiations with Holliday/Boras.

xpisblack stated exactly what I was attempting to say, just better.

I understand this, my point is that it doesn't make any sense as a negotiating position. It's paradoxical to suggest that the Sox should both not be involved with Bay because that will hurt them with Boras/ Holliday. Holliday and Boras will have some leverage by the very fact that the Sox want to sign him, and they probably already have any idea of the Sox interest, because they've, you know, met to talk about it.

So far it looks like the Sox have only been using what we describes as "Bay as plan C"; where the FO would in fact sign Bay if signed quickly for a price they liked. Nothing suggests that they've gotten into a bidding war, everything suggests that they've made an offer based on their on value and aren't moving off of that. Even if they did lose Bay in a bidding war, that would only hand Boras some number to use as a basis for Holliday if they offered Bay more than they were willing to pay for Holliday. But since I don't think anyone expects Bay to get more $ or years than Holliday, I don't see how it affects anything.

The Sox have done a pretty good job making sure that they don't absolutely have to have any position filled (the closest issue was SS, and that's solved). The bottom line is if there's a top line player they really want, they'll have to pay for him.

I think you fundamentally misunderstand the nature of the Red Sox' finances, vis a vis the Yankees'. When have the Sox ever outbid the Yankees? Even assuming your conceit doesn't change the answer. I'll re-phrase: When have the Sox ever chosen to outbid the Yankees?

I don't think I'm misunderstanding anything. While I'm not privy to their internal balance sheets, I think it's safe to say that the issue isn't that the Sox can't outbid the Yankees (at least in some specific cases), it's that they won't. The issue seems to be that the Yankees are willing to "overpay", while the Sox won't. As long as that's the case the only chance they have to meet the Yankees head on will be in asymmetric markets, such as trading prospects, but they aren't willing to "overpay" there, either. However if they do choose to overpay they should be able to outbid the Yankees once in awhile, especially since the Yankees have so much more money tied up.

[SMU_Sox]

IIRC didn't the Sox outbid the Yankees when they bid on Dice-K?

[Beomoose]

IIRC didn't the Sox outbid the Yankees when they bid on Dice-K?

The Dice Bidders weren't privy to each others' bids, not sure that counts.

[snowmanny]

IIRC didn't the Sox outbid the Yankees when they bid on Dice-K?

Of course that wasn't a normal bidding situation. Let's consider this: assuming the Red Sox don't extend Martinez and the Twins don't extend Mauer, who here believes that Boston would 'choose' to outbid the Yankees to get Mauer?

[ElcaballitoMVP]

They did outbid the Yanks on Matsuzaka but that was a different situation, IMO. The bids were blind. Neither team indicated what they were going to post, and the Red Sox just happened to have a higher big on Dice than the Yanks did. The agents were removed from the equation and the team never had an idea of what each team would post for Dice until after the bidding was over, so neither the agent or team could do much to artificially raise bids.

If Matsuzaka was a true free agent, you know his agent would have taken whatever offer the Red Sox had on the table to his client straight to the Yankees, where they could choose to blow it out of the water if they wanted to.