9 replies to this topic

[RedOctober3829]

Red Sox just signed Fabio Castro. Last year in majors: 2007.

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The Red Sox signed pitcher Fabio Castro, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Castro, 25 in January, posted a 4.01 ERA in 29 starts in the Blue Jays organization between Double and Triple A, with a 5.8 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9. He's bounced around in the Phillies, Rangers, and White Sox organizations, last pitching in the bigs in '07.

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Edited by RedOctober3829, 07 December 2009 - 08:24 PM.

[Eric Van]

He's an mlfa, and there will be a dozen more signings like him. Probably should be in the ml forum.

If you can hit on one of these guys a year (like they did with Nick Green), you're doing well.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If you can hit on one of these guys a year (like they did with Nick Green), you're doing well.

0.4 WAR, and a 240 / 296 / 387 line is considered a hit nowadays?

[djhb20]

0.4 WAR, and a 240 / 296 / 387 line is considered a hit nowadays?

To be fair, a minor league free agent is sort of the definition of replacement level, right? So, if you get wins above replacement from them, that's probably a hit. Not a very good one, to be sure.

[Talon]

Castro was a highly regarded prospect at one point (#1 pick in the 2005 Rule 5 Draft) but was bounced around a number of different organizations (KC to Texas to Philadelphia to Toronto) way too young. He's only 25 so this might turn out to be good in the long term.

[cannonball 1729]

Castro was a highly regarded prospect at one point (#1 pick in the 2005 Rule 5 Draft) but was bounced around a number of different organizations (KC to Texas to Philadelphia to Toronto) way too young. He's only 25 so this might turn out to be good in the long term.

He took a pretty odd developmental road; he jumped straight from high-A to the bigs at the start of 2006 (at age 21), then he was sent down at the end of April, and then he came back in June and stayed up for the year after spending all of 17 innings in AA and AAA. He had a fluke year in 2006 (2.27 ERA, 18 K, 13 BB in 31.2 IP) and hasn't been close since. It seems like he never really got his feet under him in AAA, which is what he's been trying to do since.

Edited by cannonball 1729, 08 December 2009 - 11:52 AM.

[Eric Van]

He's an mlfa, and there will be a dozen more signings like him. Probably should be in the ml forum.

SoxProspects made the same assumption I did and listed this as a minor league deal, but redsox.com confirms that it's a non-guaranteed MLB deal, bringing the roster to 37.

Hulett, Manuel, Atchison, Castro, the other Ramirez -- is it my imagination or is that far and away the most waiver-ish type guys Theo has ever picked up at the end of a season?

And doesn't that look like they are picking up a lot of candidates to compete with Richardson for at least one bullpen spot? (Compare last year when they essentially dealt Aardsma because they couldn't see him making the club out of ST.) That implies that they are looking to spend money elsewhere and are willing to go dirt cheap at the bottom of the pen.

Don't yet know whether the other Ramon has options left, but all the other guys do.

[Eric Van]

He took a pretty odd developmental road; he jumped straight from high-A to the bigs at the start of 2006 (at age 21), then he was sent down at the end of April, and then he came back in June and stayed up for the year after spending all of 17 innings in AA and AAA. He had a fluke year in 2006 (2.27 ERA, 18 K, 13 BB in 31.2 IP) and hasn't been close since. It seems like he never really got his feet under him in AAA, which is what he's been trying to do since.

Nothing odd about that 2006; he was a Rule 5 pick and the ml time had to be rehab.

Basically, he was a closer in the White Sox system. He was their #16 prospect (system ranked 20th) after 2003, based on "good command of an 89-91 mph fb, a breaking ball and a changeup, [both of which] need more consistency." He was #27 the next year (system up to #12); he showed "impressive poise" and "maximized the effectiveness of ... a fb that parks around 89-90, a tight curveball, and a changeup that shows signs of becoming excellent."

The White Sox left him off their 40-man even though he finished strongly, and then he went to the Dominican league and dominated. The Rangers liked him so much that they traded Esteban German to the Royals to secure the #1 pick in the Rule 5 (much as the Yankees traded Bruney to get this year's pick). BA ranked him #16 in the Rangers system (also #16): "his fb was better than ever, sitting at 91-3 and touching 94 ... good changeup that acts like a splitter ... tight curveball with downward spin ... good feel for pitching ... some deception ... stuff is good enough to start but profiles as a LH power bullpen arm because of his size (5'8", 157)."

He was OK for the Rangers in limited action, then dealt mid-season to the Phillies (for Daniel Haigwood) and was terrific. It didn't look like a fluke then; he was ridiculously tough on LHB.

The Phillies then sent him down for more seasoning after he had a rocky April '07 and later that year did what teams had been contemplating from the beginning due to his 3-pitch repertoire (which sounds a lot like Manny Delcarmen less a few mph): converted him to the rotation. And he has been thoroughly mediocre in that role ever since, mostly in AAA.

I can't find anything in his splits that explains why he's been so less effective since the conversion (e.g., no evidence that he struggles the 2nd and 3rd time around the lineup).

[cannonball 1729]

Nothing odd about that 2006; he was a Rule 5 pick and the ml time had to be rehab.

Ah, that's right. I had completely forgotten about that. I'll amend my statement to say, "a sub-optimal path to the majors," since I can't imagine that the Rule 5 path of aggressive promotion, fake injury with ml rehab, return to the majors, and demotion to AA/AAA is the best possible use of development time.

He was OK for the Rangers in limited action, then dealt mid-season to the Phillies (for Daniel Haigwood) and was terrific. It didn't look like a fluke then; he was ridiculously tough on LHB.

It may not have looked like a fluke at the time, but it sure does now. He faced just 32 lefties in 2006, and despite gaudy numbers (allowing a .074/.188/.074 to LHB), he had 4 BB and 4 K's against LHB, giving him a .083 BABIP that defied all common sense as well as several laws of physics. While it was an impressive campaign, there's no way in hell a pitcher holds opponents to a .074 batting average while striking out as many as he walked unless there's a lot of luck and a small sample size involved (just for reference, he also held righties to a .231 BABIP with 14 K and 9 BB in 93 PA). We didn't think it was all that fluky at the time because we all expected Castro to be a star, but in retrospect, it doesn't appear to be much more than ridiculous luck on balls in play.

[Eric Van]

Ah, that's right. I had completely forgotten about that. I'll amend my statement to say, "a sub-optimal path to the majors," since I can't imagine that the Rule 5 path of aggressive promotion, fake injury with ml rehab, return to the majors, and demotion to AA/AAA is the best possible use of development time.


It may not have looked like a fluke at the time, but it sure does now. He faced just 32 lefties in 2006, and despite gaudy numbers (allowing a .074/.188/.074 to LHB), he had 4 BB and 4 K's against LHB, giving him a .083 BABIP that defied all common sense as well as several laws of physics. While it was an impressive campaign, there's no way in hell a pitcher holds opponents to a .074 batting average while striking out as many as he walked unless there's a lot of luck and a small sample size involved (just for reference, he also held righties to a .231 BABIP with 14 K and 9 BB in 93 PA). We didn't think it was all that fluky at the time because we all expected Castro to be a star, but in retrospect, it doesn't appear to be much more than ridiculous luck on balls in play.

Given that every study I've run indicates that BABIP is about half defense and nearly half pitching skill (some is ballpark), when I see ridiculous BABIP numbers like that I think it's much easy to explain them as non-repeatable skill rather than luck. What it actually screams is a deceptive delivery that got guys swinging at pitches that simply weren't quite where they thought they were, resulting in weak contact. Guys read the expected break on pitches from the general arm angle and when a guy releases the ball differently, they make the wrong read.

I'm going to look at his play log to see if there's evidence of luck ...