45 replies to this topic

[SMU_Sox]

I'll admit it. Like Smoltz and Penny I like/love this possible move. I have some concerns though.

Some negatives: His WHIP, BABIP, FIP, ERA, BB/9 were all higher this year than his career averages. He has also transformed from a primarily ground ball pitcher to a flyball pitcher. That worked ok in Oakland but not so well in Chicago and that makes me nervous in Boston. His pitches per inning have also increased to the point where he isn't efficient - 18.5 pitches per inning in the NL.

[kwa1430]

Personally, I would prefer Sheets. I think he can pitch in either league and was a workhorse before the elbow injure.

[Sprowl]

The off-season is moving into an active phase. There's a whole lotta tire-kicking going on.

Due diligence ensured that the Red Sox would look at Harden sooner or later. Harden has the reputation of a guy with great stuff when he's healthy. His splitter used to appear regularly on best-of lists, but on the pitchfx charts his primary off-speed pitch looks more like a gyroball or a Lidge slider -- very little vertical rise and practically no horizontal break, in contrast to his fastball, which has lots of tailing motion. The loss of velocity on his fastball is significant though: for the last two years he has thrown a middling 91-92.

[Trautwein's Degree]

The off-season is moving into an active phase. There's a whole lotta tire-kicking going on.

What do you think about why so many teams didn't offer arbitration in so many situations where doing so would have made sense? The Yankees declined arbitration on Damon and Matsui, the Dodgers on Hudson, and the Cubs on Harden.

From the AP:

Among those declined arbitration were Detroit pitcher Jarrod Washburn, Seattle lefty Erik Bedard, Mets first baseman Carlos Delgado, Milwaukee center fielder Mike Cameron and Kansas City catcher Miguel Olivo. In Los Angeles, the Angels declined arbitration to pitchers Kelvim Escobar and Darren Oliver and outfielder Vladimir Guerrero, while the Dodgers turned down second baseman Orlando Hudson and pitchers Randy Wolf and Jon Garland.

[Joshv02]

Looks like there were 23 arb offers this year and 24 year last year, so no real difference. Not sure what the number was in prior years.

[RetractableRoof]

What do you think about why so many teams didn't offer arbitration in so many situations where doing so would have made sense? The Yankees declined arbitration on Damon and Matsui, the Dodgers on Hudson, and the Cubs on Harden.

From the AP:

I was wondering the same thing... and have come to believe it is really a basic thought: in this economic climate they are unwilling to take the risk the players will accept arbitration. In the Yankees case, I think they believe they can do with those two what they did with Andy Pettitte - offer and have them accept a short money offer.

Edited by RetractableRoof, 02 December 2009 - 12:14 AM.

[D Jack's Dome]

So a "source" indicated the Sox are thinking about Harden, and haven't offered him a contract yet? I'm sure the same "source" has them kicking the tires on Lackey, Holliday, Hudson, Vlad, etc.

Whatever.

[foulkehampshire]

Personally, I would prefer Sheets. I think he can pitch in either league and was a workhorse before the elbow injure.

Except that he averaged 135 IP from 2005-2007. The only reason he even approached 200 IP in 2008 was because he pitched hurt the 2nd half of the year, which consequently screwed up his arm even further.

[sykedoc]

I like this as well. It bodes much better than Smoltz or Penny IMO because there seems to be much more left in Harden and he can be quite dominant provided he is healthy.

I used to watch the cubs a bit, and I definitely liked watching Harden but he was injured an awful lot.

[Foulkey Reese]

18.5 pitches per inning in the NL is pretty brutal. Harden and Dicek back to back would shred the bullpen. He's certainly somebody worth taking a gamble on, but it's not just his injury history that makes him a frustrating pitcher.

In 26 starts last year for Chicago Harden pitched 7 innings only 5 times. He pitched 7.1 inning or higher zero times. So between his extensive injury history, his complete inability to pitch deep into games, and his decreased velocity I have a hard time seeing Harden having any kind of success in Boston.

[sykedoc]

18.5 pitches per inning in the NL is pretty brutal. Harden and Dicek back to back would shred the bullpen. He's certainly somebody worth taking a gamble on, but it's not just his injury history that makes him a frustrating pitcher.

In 26 starts last year for Chicago Harden pitched 7 innings only 5 times. He pitched 7.1 inning or higher zero times. So between his extensive injury history, his complete inability to pitch deep into games, and his decreased velocity I have a hard time seeing Harden having any kind of success in Boston.

We should just collectively use Daisuke and Harden as our 4th starter. That'd be fun.

[Foulkey Reese]

We should just collectively use Daisuke and Harden as our 4th starter. That'd be fun.

You kid, but I think that would be kind of cool. They carry a worthless 13th pitcher anyway, so why not do something outside the box like that? I wish we saw more of that in baseball.

Edited by Foulkey Reese, 02 December 2009 - 12:43 PM.

[sykedoc]

You kid, but I think that would be kind of cool. They carry a worthless 13th pitcher anyway, so why not do something outside the box like that? I wish we saw more of that in baseball.

Salary reasons most likely because you're paying two pitchers to pitch the half the innings of one.

[Foulkey Reese]

Salary reasons most likely because you're paying two pitchers to pitch the half the innings of one.

Yea I mean I realize it's not realistic, but it would still be cool to see a team do something that isn't normally done when it comes to pitching.

[ToxicSmed]

Yea I mean I realize it's not realistic, but it would still be cool to see a team do something that isn't normally done when it comes to pitching.

You mean something that wastes a roster spot and ensures that two of the team's pitchers are rusty whenever their turn in the rotation comes up? Pitching on double rest for a whole isn't avoided because it's out of the box, it's avoided because it's out of the realm of sanity.

[finnVT]

You mean something that wastes a roster spot and ensures that two of the team's pitchers are rusty whenever their turn in the rotation comes up? Pitching on double rest for a whole isn't avoided because it's out of the box, it's avoided because it's out of the realm of sanity.

I think he means giving the two of them the game... Dice K goes 5, Harden goes 4, or something similar depending on how they're looking.

[Foulkey Reese]

I think he means giving the two of them the game... Dice K goes 5, Harden goes 4, or something similar depending on how they're looking.

Yes this is what I mean. And I was just thinking out loud with the double pitching thing. I get why it isn't done, but I'm not convinced that it wouldn't be better than sending a pitcher like Dicek (for example) out there to give you 5.1 IP and then following that with 2-3 crappy middle relievers.

Edit: Again I'm not saying that this is what the Sox should do, it was just a passing thought that I probably should have kept to myself.

Edited by Foulkey Reese, 02 December 2009 - 01:10 PM.

[maufman]

I'll admit it. Like Smoltz and Penny I like/love this possible move. I have some concerns though.

With Smoltz and Penny, there were dual concerns-- would they be healthy, and did they have anything left in the tank? Harden is lower risk, because there's no doubt he can pitch effectively when healthy.

The past two seasons, Harden's xFIP has been remarkably consistent: 3.70 in 2008, and 3.70 in 2009. Harden was lucky with the flyballs in 2008, and somewhat unlucky in 2009. He also had some luck on balls in play in 2008 that regressed to the mean in 2009. This is the main driver of his higher pitch counts-- Harden's P/PA was largely unchanged from 2008 to 2009 (4.13 in 2008, 4.10 in 2009). Yes, he's inefficient, but he's been that way for years and isn't getting worse.

Bill James forecasts 135 IP and a 3.35 ERA for Harden in 2010. If Harden comes to Boston, an ERA just under 4 is probably a more realistic expectation.

Because Harden is lower-risk than Smoltz and Penny, I think he'll sign someplace where there's a clear place for him in the starting rotation. The Sox seem set with Lester/Beckett/Dice-K/Buchholz/Wakefield. Harden would be a great 6th SP, but unless we grossly overpay, he'll sign with a team that will give him the ball every 5th day when he's healthy.

[glennhoffmania]

18.5 pitches per inning in the NL is pretty brutal. Harden and Dicek back to back would shred the bullpen. He's certainly somebody worth taking a gamble on, but it's not just his injury history that makes him a frustrating pitcher.

In 26 starts last year for Chicago Harden pitched 7 innings only 5 times. He pitched 7.1 inning or higher zero times. So between his extensive injury history, his complete inability to pitch deep into games, and his decreased velocity I have a hard time seeing Harden having any kind of success in Boston.

I followed Harden a lot last season and watched his starts whenever I could. It seemed that in several games he was yanked early for no apparent reason. He definitely is prone to high pitch counts, so the 18.5 per inning is concerning. But the innings per start should be taken with a grain of salt in my opinion. I don't know if they were overly concerned about his arm or if Piniella was just impatient with him. But when the guy is healthy (a huge question mark obviously) he can be very nasty. I'd love to see him as this year's version of Smoltz or Penny.

[D Jack's Dome]

Because Harden is lower-risk than Smoltz and Penny, I think he'll sign someplace where there's a clear place for him in the starting rotation. The Sox seem set with Lester/Beckett/Dice-K/Buchholz/Wakefield. Harden would be a great 6th SP, but unless we grossly overpay, he'll sign with a team that will give him the ball every 5th day when he's healthy.

There is nothing set with the bottom three of that rotation. Buch pitched better, but nothing says he can't regress. Wake pitches for half a season and is a year older and just past serious surgery, and Daisuke is far from a certainty next year. Didn't we just learn about how depth and certainty can dissipate from a rotation with relative quickness? Harden is a hell of a pitcher when healthy, and I'd like to see them take a stab at either him or Bedard to fill their "high risk high reward" pitching quota for the year.

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

There is nothing set with the bottom three of that rotation. Buch pitched better, but nothing says he can't regress. Wake pitches for half a season and is a year older and just past serious surgery, and Daisuke is far from a certainty next year. Didn't we just learn about how depth and certainty can dissipate from a rotation with relative quickness? Harden is a hell of a pitcher when healthy, and I'd like to see them take a stab at either him or Bedard to fill their "high risk high reward" pitching quota for the year.

What you say is true, but it misses the point. On paper, the rotation is set. The Sox may be able to tell Harden that he'll get his starts, but they can't tell him that they're going to slot him into their five man rotation to start the season. If someone offers comparable money and a clear spot in the starting rotation, that team likely wins. I doubt that he would choose to be the contingency plan if he has other offers.

[Wingack]

From Heymen

One GM said he thinks Rich Harden, who's about as talented as they come, should have to settle for "a series of one-year deals," considering his injury history.

It could be the team that gives him two years gets it done.

[D Jack's Dome]

What you say is true, but it misses the point. On paper, the rotation is set. The Sox may be able to tell Harden that he'll get his starts, but they can't tell him that they're going to slot him into their five man rotation to start the season. If someone offers comparable money and a clear spot in the starting rotation, that team likely wins. I doubt that he would choose to be the contingency plan if he has other offers.

I would take Harden and his history over Wake any day of any week.

[thisyearisthe]

Yea, if you have to guarantee Harden a rotation spot to get him to sign a one year incentive deal, why the hell not? He's a top of the rotation starter when healthy. That's a no-brainer. Use Wake in long relief and spot starts, and maybe he'll actually last the whole season...

[Sprowl]

Yea, if you have to guarantee Harden a rotation spot to get him to sign a one year incentive deal, why the hell not? He's a top of the rotation starter when healthy. That's a no-brainer. Use Wake in long relief and spot starts, and maybe he'll actually last the whole season...

Trying to use Wake in relief is definitely a non-starter at this point in his career. A 33-year old knuckleballer warms up quickly and can take irregular usage. Tim Wakefield will be 43 years old in 2010, and has not appeared in relief since 2004. At 43, he will not be pitching on a moment's notice. He's a starter, until he goes on the disabled list. He is more valuable to the Red Sox as a half-season starter than a jack of all trades. If he ever appears in relief again, it will be in the playoffs or the All-Star Game as the last pitcher available.

[dynomite]

Trying to use Wake in relief is definitely a non-starter at this point in his career. A 33-year old knuckleballer warms up quickly and can take irregular usage. Tim Wakefield will be 43 years old in 2010, and has not appeared in relief since 2004. At 43, he will not be pitching on a moment's notice. He's a starter, until he goes on the disabled list. He is more valuable to the Red Sox as a half-season starter than a jack of all trades. If he ever appears in relief again, it will be in the playoffs or the All-Star Game as the last pitcher available.

That's right. And (I'm pretty sure) he only made 3 relief appearances in '04: two in the regular season and Game 5 against the MFY. You have to go back to 2002 to find long stretches where Wakefield came out of the pen.

Also, if I remember correctly there was a piece in the Globe where Farrell described the process they have to go through to get Wake limbered up and ready for his starts these days -- it takes multiple hours, massages, etc.

[paulftodd]

Trying to use Wake in relief is definitely a non-starter at this point in his career. A 33-year old knuckleballer warms up quickly and can take irregular usage. Tim Wakefield will be 43 years old in 2010, and has not appeared in relief since 2004. At 43, he will not be pitching on a moment's notice. He's a starter, until he goes on the disabled list. He is more valuable to the Red Sox as a half-season starter than a jack of all trades. If he ever appears in relief again, it will be in the playoffs or the All-Star Game as the last pitcher available.

I agree, at least in terms of conventional relief pitcher usage. But if they used Wake as a scheduled reliever, an idea I have floated before, and pitching every 5 days, coming in to pitch the 5th-6th IP to the 8th or 9th; say to piggyback on Dice-K starts or at other points in the season where the team wants to reduce another SP'ers innings like Beckett or Buchholz . This would allow Wake to keep his SP routine and enough time to prepare, knowing with certainty on game day he is going to start in the 5th or 6th inning. It would also keep Wakes innings down since I doubt he can go 180 IP or more anymore.

Something to consider in an era where 6 IP is almost like a heroic effort or CG for most starters.

[Sprowl]

But if they used Wake as a scheduled reliever, an idea I have floated before, and pitching every 5 days, coming in to pitch the 5th-6th IP to the 8th or 9th; say to piggyback on Dice-K starts or at other points in the season where the team wants to reduce another SP'ers innings like Beckett or Buchholz.

A reliever who can pitch only one day in five and must pitch those 2-3 innings on a schedule determined in advance is not an asset to a pitching staff. When Good Wake shows up, we want him to pitch as many innings as he can (he is a good bet to throw 2-3 complete games during a season). He won't get that pitching in relief. When Bad Wake shows up, he will get the other team back in the game. If the Red Sox are winning the game after Matsuzaka pitches 5+ innings and Wakefield pitches 2-3 innings, then Papelbon (or another closer) will still be coming in to pitch the 9th. The Red Sox would still need 5 starters and a full suite of relievers to cover 80% of the games. That's would be inflexible and expensive roster construction, and probably cost the Red Sox a decent bench player. Wakefield is a starter who has performed well in the role for important parts of the last six seasons, and is a reasonably good bet to repeat the performance.

[TomRicardo]

Can people stop being willfully stupid?

Daisuke Matsuzaka Career:

431 2/3 IP 73 GS = 5.91 IP/GS

STOP SAYING DAISUKE IS A FIVE INNING PITCHER.

It is as ignorant as saying JD Drew sucks.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

DM has pitched six or more innings in 59% of his starts since coming to Boston, and in 35% of his starts over the past two seasons. Given those numbers and the average you computed, we could be a bit more precise and say something along the lines of "he's not a reliable six-inning pitcher," but in any case it's all shorthand for "he tends to be tough on bullpens."

[luckysox]

Could it be that Wake is not ready for the beginning of the year and they let him get truly into form with an extended spring training? This would open a spot for Harden, and allows Wake to get ready and get the other guys an extra day or two around June...I don't think anyone expexts that we'll have 5 healthy starters all season long, so maybe this sort of planning would be good for both Wake and the other 5.

If we count on Wake to be ready and good, at 43 and coming off back surgery, and he isn't ready or good, then we are looking at Bowden as a 5th starter, or paying through the nose in a trade mid year. And I mknbow there are some here who like Bowden, but counting on him as #5 is not a great plan for a team that has World Series ambitions.

[TomRicardo]

DM has pitched six or more innings in 59% of his starts since coming to Boston, and in 35% of his starts over the past two seasons. Given those numbers and the average you computed, we could be a bit more precise and say something along the lines of "he's not a reliable six-inning pitcher," but in any case it's all shorthand for "he tends to be tough on bullpens."

Clay Buchholz has been far more unreliable and averages only about 5.5 IP/GS. If we are going to piggy back off anyone it would be him.

[maufman]

What you say is true, but it misses the point. On paper, the rotation is set. The Sox may be able to tell Harden that he'll get his starts, but they can't tell him that they're going to slot him into their five man rotation to start the season. If someone offers comparable money and a clear spot in the starting rotation, that team likely wins. I doubt that he would choose to be the contingency plan if he has other offers.

This is exactly what I meant to say.

Even a two-year deal probably wouldn't get it done-- both Harden and (especially) Bedard are convinced that 2010 is the year they're going to stay healthy and throw 180-200 innings, and they want to cash in afterwards. If that isn't their attitude, I don't want them.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

This is exactly what I meant to say.

Even a two-year deal probably wouldn't get it done-- both Harden and (especially) Bedard are convinced that 2010 is the year they're going to stay healthy and throw 180-200 innings, and they want to cash in afterwards. If that isn't their attitude, I don't want them.

Two thoughts on this as a supporter of signing either of these guys --

1) With either of these guys, just as with Smoltz and Penny -- and like the story where two guys are being chased by a bear. If either Bedard or Harden want to throw 180-200 IP they just need to pitch better than the last guy in the rotation. It just so happens that with two "aces" it seems likely that the 3-4-5 guys will have a competition to see who is the most durable and reliable. Adding another guy into the mix isn't a bad idea, especially if it gives Wake a chance to rehab longer and start pitching when the weather's a little warmer.

2) Penny especially raved about the Sox shoulder-strengthening program. This has got to be a factor as well for guys who need to rehab those muscles to remain in contention for multi-year contracts in the future, and shouldn't be discounted by those who think that the "set rotation" would be a turn-off to signing. The money, and the chance to secure more money in the future, will come first.

[Clears Cleaver]

not sure where to put this, but the Yankees just DFA's Wang. I'd rather take a shot at him, I think, than Harden

[4-6-3]

not sure where to put this, but the Yankees just DFA's Wang. I'd rather take a shot at him, I think, than Harden

Link?

[Wingack]

not sure where to put this, but the Yankees just DFA's Wang. I'd rather take a shot at him, I think, than Harden

I am not seeing this anywhere in the Internetz.

Anyway, there are starting to be a few more rumbles that the Yankees are interested in Harden. I haven't heard them linked to Sheets too much though, which disappoints me.

[Rough Carrigan]

Trying to use Wake in relief is definitely a non-starter at this point in his career. A 33-year old knuckleballer warms up quickly and can take irregular usage. Tim Wakefield will be 43 years old in 2010, and has not appeared in relief since 2004. At 43, he will not be pitching on a moment's notice. He's a starter, until he goes on the disabled list. He is more valuable to the Red Sox as a half-season starter than a jack of all trades. If he ever appears in relief again, it will be in the playoffs or the All-Star Game as the last pitcher available.

Just to play devil's advocate, Hoyt Wilhelm pitched in relief till he was 49. He only started one season in his career, one of his first couple.

[koufax32]

Just to play devil's advocate, Hoyt Wilhelm pitched in relief till he was 49. He only started one season in his career, one of his first couple.

And how many major surgeries did he go through?

[TheYellowDart5]

not sure where to put this, but the Yankees just DFA's Wang. I'd rather take a shot at him, I think, than Harden

Only thing I'm seeing online is Ken Davidoff of Newsday saying that once the Yankees DFA Wang, the Dodgers should be interested. But it hasn't happened yet, and Davidoff could just be talking out of his ass.

[Bowlerman9]

Only thing I'm seeing online is Ken Davidoff of Newsday saying that once the Yankees DFA Wang, the Dodgers should be interested. But it hasn't happened yet, and Davidoff could just be talking out of his ass.

Plus, how can you DFA a player not under contract? They can non-tender him. But it's not like they can send him to the minors while he doesnt have a valid contract.

[TheYellowDart5]

Plus, how can you DFA a player not under contract? They can non-tender him. But it's not like they can send him to the minors while he doesnt have a valid contract.

I'm pretty sure DFA and non-tender are being used interchangeably here, albeit, like you said, incorrectly.

[foulkehampshire]

not sure where to put this, but the Yankees just DFA's Wang. I'd rather take a shot at him, I think, than Harden

1) Dubious health
2) Doesn't strike anybody out
3) Mediocre arsenal besides his sinkerball
4) Bad K/BB ratios.

Sounds like Penny 2.0 to me. Not even including a significant sample-size of playoff suck, Wang is not a pitcher this team should pursue, IMO. Loads of run-support made him look like the ace he wasn't.

And with Lowell penciled to man 3rd base as of right now, he'll get bled to death from bleeders rolling into LF.( /insert D-Lowe face)

Edited by foulkehampshire, 06 December 2009 - 08:50 PM.

[Rice4HOF]

Only thing I'm seeing online is Ken Davidoff of Newsday saying that once the Yankees DFA Wang, the Dodgers should be interested. But it hasn't happened yet, and Davidoff could just be talking out of his ass.

Also saw some reports of Wang's non-tendering on twitter, but nothing offcial: twitter.com/nybd

NYBD Kudos to our very own Frank Russo. Had the Yankees non tendoring Chien Ming Wang all the way back in July - another score for Frank!

edit:fixed link

Edited by Rice4HOF, 06 December 2009 - 10:25 PM.

[Foulkey Reese]

5. Heard this: The Red Sox do not have serious interest in Rich Harden.

http://insider.espn....me=olney_buster