19 replies to this topic

[Clears Cleaver]

http://www.mlbtrader...tug-hulett.html

[Jimy Hendrix]

http://www.mlbtrader...tug-hulett.html

Tug's stats at Baseball Cube

Well, he's got an A+ silly name, a good minor league track record for on-base ability, and was grabbed from an organization that wouldn't understand on-base ability if it was directly in front of them screaming "HI I AM VERY VALUABLE TO HELPING YOUR BASEBALL TEAM WIN".

On the downside, however, he's sucked at the major league level so far (in limited at bats though), and his minor league power numbers are almost certainly PCL inflated, if that league is still as much of a hitter's paradise as I remember it being.

Overall, seems like a no-risk move with the upside of snagging a solid utility man if he can transfer any of his skills to the bigs. Good depth for Pawtucket if nothing else.

[Eric Van]

He played four years in the Rangers system before being traded to the Mariners for Ben Broussard, then went to the Royals and then us on waivers. Never cracked a BA Top 30 but Sickels gave him nice writeups in '07 and '08 that essentially amounted to "this guy deserves to be an MLB utility guy."

He's supposed to not have the range to play SS every day, but his TotalZone numbers there have been a bit above average, suggesting he has the glove to be an MLB backup MI. His numbers at 2B have been very good.

His combined MLE EqA (including his MLB line) last year was .257 which is actually sensational for a MI reserve. Based on what he did in the minors last year, he could start for a bunch of teams at 2B, let alone be a backup. I'll be curious to see the MLEs from previous years.

[mabrowndog]

He played a key role in Team USA's gold medal win over Cuba in the Baseball World Cup 2 months ago in Italy:

The U.S. beat Cuba’s best, scoring six runs (three earned) off veteran righthander Norge Vera, who took the loss, and chasing ageless Cuban closer Pedro Luis Lazo in the seventh after three hitters without an out.

The key U.S. rally started with two outs, when Tug Hulett (Royals), who also had a solo homer in the fifth inning, drew a walk off Vera. Buck Coats (Blue Jays) followed with a double, moving Hulett to third and chasing Vera in favor of Lazo. Hulett scored when Trevor Plouffe (Twins) hit a grounder to second and reached safely when the ball was booted by first baseman Ariel Borrero.

Three years ago BA.com rated him as having the best strike zone discipline in the Rangers' minor league system.

Also, his old man played a dozen years in the majors, mainly for the White Sox and Orioles.

And here's his profile 2 years ago at Beyond The Box Score:

You know, I'm surprised that Tim Hulett Jr. doesn't get more attention from scouts. He's got a decent glove, makes consistent contact, and has one of the best batting eyes in the minors. All of that combined with ML bloodlines usually at least gets a guy a token mention here and there in prospect lists. But scouts tend to greet him with nothing more than a yawn. I don't get it.

Okay, okay, I'll admit that he doesn't have much of a ceiling. He isn't going to hit for much power. And he isn't going to bat .315, which makes him a .290/.340/.350 kind of ML hitter. He even has a nominal amount of speed to offer, so that means he may be able to slide into a super utility role by learning how to play center field while backing up all of the infield spots, pinch hitting, and pinch running. There's not much risk involved, which at least makes him a prospect, even if there's no star power to be found. And look at it this way, Baseball America had Jose Vallejo ranked 29th, ahead of Hulett. I don't have a problem with ranking him outside of the top 10. But saying that he's not as good a prospect as a 21 year old second baseman who posted a .573 OPS in the Midwest League last season is insanity.

In terms of diagnostics, he's developing into a groundball/liner hitter, though that's not a bad idea as his 5'10" frame doesn't really work as a flyball hitter. There are worse things than being a slap hitter as long as you're good at it. It also bears mentioning that he's consistently been more effective against RHP than against southpaws.

So let's review, he's a good defensive second baseman who has enough smarts and footspeed that he might turn into a decent supersub kind of like an Esteban German/Chone Figgins. He doesn't have much of any kind of power. He knows the difference between balls and strikes. So how you look at him depends a lot on whether you think that the phrase "A poor man's Dustin Pedroia" is a compliment or not. The ceiling is David Eckstein at second base. The downside is that he doesn't get a chance at all and ends up cruising Durham, Tucson, Portland, and Louisville in a long AAA career.

Edited by mabrowndog, 25 November 2009 - 09:23 PM.

[AlNipper49]

[George from Maine]

His name makes him sound like he is one of Sarah Palin's kids.

[Drek717]

Pretty interesting pickup for the MI job. Good track record for OBP, which seems to be generally pretty rare in MIs and even more rare in an MI who looks like he can play both 2B and SS.

The scouting summary from two years ago says he doesn't have much power, but in '07 he had 11 homers and 30 doubles in AAA, then 14 homers and 22 doubles the next year, and 11 and 27 this past season. He's shown at least a little pop at the AAA level.

He's got to be an upgrade over Nick Green at any rate. Not a bad pick up.

Edited by Drek717, 25 November 2009 - 11:32 PM.

[Eric Van]

And here's his profile 2 years ago at Beyond The Box Score:

It's worth noting that he had a career 3 HR in 3 seasons before that was written (early in '07) and has hit 36 in the three subsequent seasons. In fact, his career as a hitter is interesting enough to run his component splits:

Tug Hulett

Year Lvl	PA	RC/27	K%	BB%	HRC	BABIP	IsoIP	CBA	CIso
'04 A-	320	7.15	.209	.213	.000	.383	.094	.383	.094
'05 A	482	5.53	.180	.187	.003	.334	.093	.337	.102
'06 A+	357	7.39	.171	.171	.009	.357	.143	.362	.168
'06 AA	220	6.32	.164	.141	.000	.375	.105	.375	.105
'07 AAA	594	5.28	.192	.108	.027	.329	.088	.347	.166
08 AAA	389	6.69	.188	.118	.052	.336	.125	.370	.274
'09 AAA	435	6.48	.182	.129	.037	.340	.122	.365	.227
'04-6	1379	6.48	.182	.181	.003	.358	.109	.360	.119
'08-9	824	6.58	.184	.124	.044	.338	.123	.367	.250

You can see the remarkable change from his first three years to his last two (2007 marked the beginning of the changed approach but he didn't yet have the same success with it). Identical K rate and virtually identical Contact BA, but a drop of about one-third in BB rate precisely countered by a dramatic increase in Contact Iso which is completely driven by an immense increase in his HR per Contact.

The PCL is hitter-friendly, but it doesn't increase HR rates by 1170%.

[bombdiggz]

How do his TotalZone numbers translate to left field? I kid. I kid.

Solid move. No downside with a remote shot to contribute, but interesting nonetheless. As we learned last year, always good to have depth at the MI position. Who would've thought our SS for most of the year would be Nick Green.

Edited by bombdiggz, 26 November 2009 - 03:05 AM.

[Plympton91]

If rumors of their interest in Marco Scutaro are true and that pursuit bears fruit, then this is good Jed Lowrie insurance as the backup to the backup infielder. He's certainly a better option than Gil Velazquez. His offense sounds a lot like Jeff Natale, but all reports are that as a secondbaseman Jeff Natale makes a nice DH.

[Drek717]

If rumors of their interest in Marco Scutaro are true and that pursuit bears fruit, then this is good Jed Lowrie insurance as the backup to the backup infielder. He's certainly a better option than Gil Velazquez. His offense sounds a lot like Jeff Natale, but all reports are that as a secondbaseman Jeff Natale makes a nice DH.

If they go after someone like Scutaro it'd seem to support the rumor that the FO wants Lowrie spending time in AAA getting his game right while Scutaro and Hulett carry the SS and backup MI jobs, respectively.

[Drocca]

Is this confirmed?

[HriniakPosterChild]

Is this confirmed?

Yes

[bakahump]

Worse things in life then a guy who can play 7 positions on the field and can take a walk.

[SaveBooFerriss]

If they go after someone like Scutaro it'd seem to support the rumor that the FO wants Lowrie spending time in AAA getting his game right while Scutaro and Hulett carry the SS and backup MI jobs, respectively.

Assuming this is true, how much time would the FO want Lowrie spending is AAA? A month, two months, more? I assume the Sox think Lowrie will ultimately be better than both Hulett and Scutaro. If he plays well in AAA, I can't see his stay there too long.

[Spacemans Bong]

If the Red Sox think Lowrie will be better than Scutaro then why would they bother with Scutaro? Lowrie's going to be 26 years old April 17th. It's decision time. Either he is your shortstop next year or he's not much more useful than Tug Hulett.

[Drek717]

If the Red Sox think Lowrie will be better than Scutaro then why would they bother with Scutaro? Lowrie's going to be 26 years old April 17th. It's decision time. Either he is your shortstop next year or he's not much more useful than Tug Hulett.

Only three paths I see left for Lowrie:

1. they think he's still a legit starter in the majors. Hulett was acquired to be a solid MI option behind him and they'll look for a low cost AAA vet while Lowrie is asked to start at SS in Fenway.

2. They think he's legit but needs time to get his game back on track after the injury plagued seasons. If they think its a full year kind of recovery then a one year rental on Scutaro makes sense, but nothing long term would likely be offered to anyone.

3. They've largely given up and are just hoping to redeem him into a solid backup. A season at AAA will give him the chance to get back on track at the plate and also save a year of time towards arbitration (I believe, not an expert on how service time is accrued and whatnot).

We'll see what they do as it pertains to Scutaro and the other SS options (trading for Drew and ???).

[Eric Van]

Only three paths I see left for Lowrie:

1. they think he's still a legit starter in the majors. Hulett was acquired to be a solid MI option behind him and they'll look for a low cost AAA vet while Lowrie is asked to start at SS in Fenway.

2. They think he's legit but needs time to get his game back on track after the injury plagued seasons. If they think its a full year kind of recovery then a one year rental on Scutaro makes sense, but nothing long term would likely be offered to anyone.

3. They've largely given up and are just hoping to redeem him into a solid backup. A season at AAA will give him the chance to get back on track at the plate and also save a year of time towards arbitration (I believe, not an expert on how service time is accrued and whatnot).

We'll see what they do as it pertains to Scutaro and the other SS options (trading for Drew and ???).

I would be shocked if their belief is not #2. Theo has stated that it's not #1, and there's no reason why they would sour on his potential just because he's been hurt.

It's really not a mystery.

My sense is that they would like him to play every day in Pawtucket for maybe two months, go through the usual ups and downs, and get into the routine of being an everyday player while avoiding minor injuries. Lowrie in 2010 is not a whole lot unlike Clay Buchholz in 2009, with health rather than makeup as the problem that needs solving.

[grantb]

Only three paths I see left for Lowrie:

1. they think he's still a legit starter in the majors. Hulett was acquired to be a solid MI option behind him and they'll look for a low cost AAA vet while Lowrie is asked to start at SS in Fenway.

2. They think he's legit but needs time to get his game back on track after the injury plagued seasons. If they think its a full year kind of recovery then a one year rental on Scutaro makes sense, but nothing long term would likely be offered to anyone.

3. They've largely given up and are just hoping to redeem him into a solid backup. A season at AAA will give him the chance to get back on track at the plate and also save a year of time towards arbitration (I believe, not an expert on how service time is accrued and whatnot).

We'll see what they do as it pertains to Scutaro and the other SS options (trading for Drew and ???).

4. They see Lowrie as more of a future third baseman instead of shortstop, so a year in AAA until Lowell becomes hurt or ineffective makes sense.

[Drek717]

I would be shocked if their belief is not #2. Theo has stated that it's not #1, and there's no reason why they would sour on his potential just because he's been hurt.

It's really not a mystery.

My sense is that they would like him to play every day in Pawtucket for maybe two months, go through the usual ups and downs, and get into the routine of being an everyday player while avoiding minor injuries. Lowrie in 2010 is not a whole lot unlike Clay Buchholz in 2009, with health rather than makeup as the problem that needs solving.

I think #2 is most likely, but if it is that then it wouldn't make much sense to pursue someone like Scutaro, because he'll almost definitely want a starting gig.

Someone like Counsell or Tejada on one year deals could work. Not sure if Tejada is at that point now where he'd take a one year contract, but he's bitched about wanting to win before, this would be a chance for him to back it up financially. If Lowrie does get back on track and the FO doesn't get an elite corner infielder you could also have Tejada taking time in place of Lowell at 3B and DH with Ortiz. Counsell on the other hand is already proven to be a very versatile utility guy and he hits left, so while waiting for Lowrie to get right we could platoon him and Hulett to see if either one has something up their sleeve for '10. Counsell is probably the more realistic (and safer) signing of the two.