22 replies to this topic

[dwightinright]

Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan and A's reliever Andrew Bailey have been named Rookie of the Year in the NL and AL.

http://www.cbssports.../story/12530451

[Foulkey Reese]

The Happy Youngster will not be pleased.

[RingoOSU]

The Happy Youngster will not be pleased.

Seems to me that bat's worth a fortune now.

[jimc]

Here are the vote totals:

AL ROY 2009 voting

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	Points
Andrew Bailey	13	6	5	88
Elvis Andrus	8	6	7	65
Rick Porcello	7	8	5	64
Jeff Niemann	x	5	6	21
Gordon Beckham	x	2	4	10
Brett Anderson	x	1	1	4

NL ROY 2009 voting

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	Points
Chris Coghlan	17	6	2	105
J.A. Happ	10	11	11	94
Tommy Hanson	2	6	9	37
Andrew McCutchen	2	5	x	25
Casey McGehee	1	3	4	18
Randy Wells	x	1	x	3
Garrett Jones	x	x	2	2
Everth Cabrera	x	x	1	1
Dexter Fowler	x	x	1	1
Gerardo Parra	x	x	1	1
Colby Rasmus	x	x	1	1

Edited by jimc, 16 November 2009 - 03:18 PM.

[ngruz25]

Am I missing something about Chris Coghlan? I can't really figure out not only why he won ROY over Happ, Hanson, or McCutchen, but why he had so many more votes than McCutchen either.

Edited by ngruz25, 16 November 2009 - 03:26 PM.

[David Laurila]

Christina Kahrl is now in the BBWAA and voted for the AL RoY. Not only that, she gave a detailed explanation of how she came to her decision. Needless to say, it would be nice if all other voters routinely did the same.

http://www.baseballp...?articleid=9775

[SemperFidelisSox]

We can probably use this thread for all the awards that will be announced in the coming days.

AL Cy Young - Tuesday
AL/NL Manager of the Year - Wednesday
NL Cy Young - Thursday
AL MVP - November 23
NL MVP - November 24

[absintheofmalaise]

Let's do threads for each award. We've had some good discussions about them before.

[Freddy Linn]

I'm with ngruz, McCutchen's results are bizarre. Same OPS+, premium position.

[TheYellowDart5]

As bizarre as Coghlan vs. McCutchen is, I'm still not sure how Rick Porcello got so many more votes than Brett Anderson did. Porcello had the better ERA and three more wins, but they were almost even in ERA+, and Anderson had a big advantage in K/9 and a decent advantage in WHIP.

Fun with WAR:

Anderson: 3.8
Bailey: 2.4
Porcello: 1.9

I don't think these awards should be given out based solely on statistics, but at the same time, it doesn't really jive that Anderson was (presumably) dinged for being a good starter on a bad team when Bailey was (presumably) rewarded for being a good reliever on that same bad team. And it's equally crap that Anderson was just as good of a starter as, if not better than, Porcello but lost points because his team wasn't as good as Porcello's.

[ehaz]

Am I missing something about Chris Coghlan? I can't really figure out not only why he won ROY over Happ, Hanson, or McCutchen, but why he had so many more votes than McCutchen either.

.320 BA, .390 OBP is pretty good. He played a ton more games than McCutchen too. However, McCutchen was the better overall player with a higher SLG, more steals, and much better defense.

[jimc]

I would have taken Andrus, but maybe I'm just biased in favor of a speedy defender. Kahrl's summary is also mine:

I voted for Elvis Andrus as the American League Rookie of the Year. Maybe it's because of the limitations of defensive metrics, which are more suggestive than absolutely descriptive, but defense was a key factor for the Rangers' performance as a team, and Andrus' addition was central to that. Andrus was the one player who had his job throughout the entire season, who wasn't skipped or saw his workload moderated or modulated to good effect. He improved during the course of the season, and while his offensive contributions weren't outstanding, we weren't talking about the new Mark Belanger either.

In a different thread I asked how Boston's season might have played out if we'd had an Andrus at SS. Would he have been run out of town for his bat, or would the defense, athleticism and stability at a problem position have been more important? I think the latter; having seen the vagaries of the position over the last few years, I think that Andrus could have been Pedroia mk.II, everything we had dreamed Lowrie might have been by now. All VORP is not equal, and, of course, we were using essentially the prototypical RP at short for the majority of the season.

[ehaz]

I would have taken Andrus, but maybe I'm just biased in favor of a speedy defender. Kahrl's summary is also mine:

In a different thread I asked how Boston's season might have played out if we'd had an Andrus at SS. Would he have been run out of town for his bat, or would the defense, athleticism and stability at a problem position have been more important? I think the latter; having seen the vagaries of the position over the last few years, I think that Andrus could have been Pedroia mk.II, everything we had dreamed Lowrie might have been by now. All VORP is not equal, and, of course, we were using essentially the prototypical RP at short for the majority of the season.

Andrus' bat is a huge liability. I'm not too much into speedy defenders that can barely register an OPS over .700. He really shouldn't have won it with Bailey dominating in the closer position for the A's. I think they made the right call.

[Freddy Linn]

.320 BA, .390 OBP is pretty good. He played a ton more games than McCutchen too. However, McCutchen was the better overall player with a higher SLG, more steals, and much better defense.

Super Two. Which is why he came up June 4 (incidentally, went 2-4 with 3 runs and an RBI). I can't see dinging someone for that.

By keeping a prospect in the minors for a few extra months, teams can get 6 1/2 seasons from a player before free agency rather than six. In addition, players who rank in the top 17 percent of those with more than two years of service time and fewer than three gain Super Two rights and are eligible for arbitration. So teams try to gauge when it's safe to promote their best players so that they will not be in that 17 percent. The accepted safe period to avoid Super Two status is usually after Memorial Day, which was May 25 this year.

Link

[Bowlerman9]

No votes for Edinson Volquez? Color me disappointed.

[RingoOSU]

No votes for Edinson Volquez? Color me disappointed.

I think you're looking at Edinson's 2008 numbers.

[cannonball 1729]

As bizarre as Coghlan vs. McCutchen is, I'm still not sure how Rick Porcello got so many more votes than Brett Anderson did. Porcello had the better ERA and three more wins, but they were almost even in ERA+, and Anderson had a big advantage in K/9 and a decent advantage in WHIP.

You just answered your own question. Rate stats are nice, and they're good predictors and all, but the bottom line is he gave up fewer runs, and he doesn't play half of his games in the cavernous Coliseum.

[TheYellowDart5]

You just answered your own question. Rate stats are nice, and they're good predictors and all, but the bottom line is he gave up fewer runs, and he doesn't play half of his games in the cavernous Coliseum.

Except that Porcello had an ERA that was lower thanks to a high strand rate and some luck on balls in play. By FIP, Anderson kicked Porcello's ass (3.69 to 4.77).

And FWIW, Anderson's H/R splits.

Home: 3.99 ERA
Away: 4.11 ERA

Porcello:

Home: 3.87
Road: 4.03

[dwightinright]

Except that Porcello had an ERA that was lower thanks to a high strand rate and some luck on balls in play.

But should that really matter when voting on an award? Sure, for predicitive purposes it's something to look at, but I'm not sure it matters for an award.

Just like if a player has a ridiculously high BABIP one season, leading him to hitting way over his career norms and he wins an MVP.

[Adirondack jack]

Brett Anderson was a pretty good pull in the Haren deal.

Anderson is 21, had a 3.33 K/BB ratio this year while having a 50.9% GB rate. He should have received more ROY votes without question and I wouldn't of blinked had he won, but he may not care if he grabs a couple Cy Young's soon which wouldnt startle anyone who has watched him pitch a couple times. If he stays healthy it will not be the last time we hear from him.

Edited by Adirondack jack, 17 November 2009 - 01:34 PM.

[cannonball 1729]

Except that Porcello had an ERA that was lower thanks to a high strand rate and some luck on balls in play. By FIP, Anderson kicked Porcello's ass (3.69 to 4.77).

And FWIW, Anderson's H/R splits.

Home: 3.99 ERA
Away: 4.11 ERA

Porcello:

Home: 3.87
Road: 4.03

As dwightinright points out, this is the disconnect I'm missing. You can point to component stats and say that he shouldn't have had a better ERA, but he did. Call it luck or voodoo or call it an ability to pitch to the score and situation, but the bottom line is that Porcello was more successful at his job than Anderson. I don't understand why we'd look at something like FIP to determine how valuable someone was to their team last year, unless we're rewarding Anderson for his ability to keep hypothetical runners from scoring. I understand the predictive value of FIP, but that's not the same thing as trying to figure out who had more value to their team in an already completed season.

Also, quoting H/R splits misses the point. If Todd Helton hit 40 home runs on the road and 0 at Coors, it doesn't mean that H/R splits don't matter; it means that he sucked at home. Heck, if Helton hit 15 at home and 15 on the road, it means that he wasn't very good at making use of the Coors advantage. Anderson wasn't much better at home than on the road? Well, that's pretty sad, because he had a significant advantage at home and didn't use it.

Edited by cannonball 1729, 17 November 2009 - 01:45 PM.

[Al Zarilla]

Baseball makes you wait all this time after the WS ended before they announce the individual awards, then they even make you wait until 2 eastern. Why is this?

The CY predictor, which has Bill James' name on it, has King Felix winning it, with Greinke second.

[DieHardSoxFan1]

As dwightinright points out, this is the disconnect I'm missing. You can point to component stats and say that he shouldn't have had a better ERA, but he did. Call it luck or voodoo or call it an ability to pitch to the score and situation, but the bottom line is that Porcello was more successful at his job than Anderson. I don't understand why we'd look at something like FIP to determine how valuable someone was to their team last year, unless we're rewarding Anderson for his ability to keep hypothetical runners from scoring. I understand the predictive value of FIP, but that's not the same thing as trying to figure out who had more value to their team in an already completed season.

Also, quoting H/R splits misses the point. If Todd Helton hit 40 home runs on the road and 0 at Coors, it doesn't mean that H/R splits don't matter; it means that he sucked at home. Heck, if Helton hit 15 at home and 15 on the road, it means that he wasn't very good at making use of the Coors advantage. Anderson wasn't much better at home than on the road? Well, that's pretty sad, because he had a significant advantage at home and didn't use it.

I think Porcello loses a few points because he pitched in front of a vastly better defense.

Anderson, 22, was one of the most underrated pitchers in the AL last season. He finished 8th in xFIP and was pretty dominant for the last 3.5 months of the season. He's got plus command, a wipe-out curveball and an average change up that projects as plus. His velocity jumped 3-4 mph midseason, sitting at 94 MPH and touching 97. Oh, and he throws left-handed.