772 replies to this topic

[seantoo]

History of this thread, I stated that Theo has noted he wanted to improve the defense on the leftside of the field, where Mike Lowell the worst of the three positions is. Based on that AND relying on a 36 year old's surgically repaired hip to improve enough to bring his defense close to pre-injury status is not something anyone should bank on. That being said I present the case to sign free agent type B, Adrian Beltre. I noticed last off-season that Mike's hip was a problem and reviewed MLB trade rumors list of 2010 free agents; see here http://www.mlbtrader...mlb-free-a.html. After reviewing this and the 2011 list I noticed that Adrain Beltre (wether or not some of you like him, was the only reasonable replacement that was a free agent for Mike Lowell. Upon looking into this I noticed on baseball-reference.com, see here http://www.baseball-...lowelmi01.shtml, that Adrain Beltre was listed #2 for Mike Lowell on most similiarity scores, which is a quick dirty look at the picture. So I looked into it more using Cott's contracts, see here;
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/ and found that they are making the same per season right now, $12M. Therefore if the Sox liked Mike Lowell enough to resign him then they would like Beltre as he is as close a clone as you'll find & & & he is a free agent.

The numbers you used Synovia were in fact wrong AND more importantly the fourth and fifth year mean precious little for projections going forward. The last three years, or less, are the years that all projections that I'm aware of use. Based on that, because really we are talking about Beltre with the Sox going forward. Mike Lowell had a 124 OPS+ at 33 years old which clearly was a career type year only his 2004 & 2003 season are close. The Sox knew that when they resigned him they were not going to get that, hell his previous year with the team he had an OPS+ of 104, so when the Sox resigned Lowell they likely expected something in between that and his career norm which
POINT A*At that time his OPS+ was 110. He has followed that up with 103 & 104 with his first years with the Sox. The seasons 2005 thru 2007 (previous 3 seasons before re-signing him) Mike Lowell had an OPS+ of 103, Adrian the past 3 seasons 2006 thru 2009 had an OPS+ of 102 I'm not cherry picking anything (I never included his career yr) like others are here (using his 2005 season), why should I use other years because it does not fit your or others argument? I provided a good reason why I have done what I've done and if anything seeing that both had a lousy injury filled season included demonstrates fairness.
POINT B) Adrian Beltre right now has a career OPS+ of 105. Last years injuries not with standing his OPS # is 107. A torn testical can impact a guy. as did elbow surgery. So wether you want to look at this more objectively and use 109 vs 107 or not and use 109 vs 105 doesn't really matter a whole hell of alot. By any measure, they are damn near the same.
THAT is the overall difference is production. These are facts people.
POINT C) Baseball reference list Adrian Beltre #2 under Mike Lowell's name for most similiar batter, http://www.baseball-...lowelmi01.shtml, so I'm not making shit up here folks.
POINT D There are no real free agent available, see list above , when Lowell's contract expires and nothing in the system either. So do you let the horses out of the barn or do you lock up the dam door now?
POINT E For whatever it is worth Beltre has won 2 gold gloves, 2007 & 2008 and has a reputation of a gold glove calibre defensive player. Any nay sayers can check out any of the newer defensive metrics and either agree with this point or bury the stats because it does not fit in with replacing your binky, aka , Mike Lowell. Listen I like Mike, I'm just not banking on his 36 yo hip being what is once was.
POINT F Moving from the worst line-up in the league where your the #3 or #4 hitter to moving to a team with the third best offense where you are the #5,6 or #7 can only help you, people can debate to what extent but they cannot debate the point. More runners on base when you are at bat, is protection in a line-up. Pitchers pitch to situations and don't worry about who bats behind you on deck. Rationally thinking people see this helping Beltre's numbers increasing here.
POINT G Fenway Park has a 108 park factor and Seattle has a 96 park factor, again this would improve Beltre's #'s, facts people facts.
POINT H Some think it would take far less to sign Beltre than I do, fine that's actaully adds credence to signing him, not for not signing him.
POINT I He is young enough that even with a 3 year deal he'd still be younger when the deal would expire than when Mike Lowell resigned with us. It would be the backside of his prime years, but still his prime years.
POINT J Going into last season he's averaged 149 games a season, very durable, so the injuries he incured should not be expected especially the torn testical. The injury will drive down his price making him more attractive. The Sox do target guys coming off down years with the reasonable expectation they will bounce back to previous levels of performance, that is how you get good value, see Mike Lowell.
POINT K Signing Beltre, gives the Sox more flexibilty, they can keep Lowell as insurance against injuries to Beltre/Ortiz or poor hitting from Ortiz. He could platoon at DH. They could wait and trade him or Ortiz when the time is right or the best deal presents itself.
POINT L I probably could come up with weaker although legitimate points but I don't need to, if you disagree then refuting one point does not refute all 12 because this may be the most important point of all. If you refute one or two points and do not adress the others and then claim you are king shit and I'm a turd, well then your mom should revoke you internet time, you would not be worthy of this board or a response. I love Mike Lowell too but it is time to put your binky away and move on.
POINT M Okay this one is the clincher, the checkmate, Adrian Beltre's road OPS+ the past three years has been 127, 134 and 96 after weighing the plate appearace for each season it average out to 120.7 OPS+ on the road. Now I challenge anyone who opposed this idea to come forward and state in light of this evidence, 'Perhaps I pre-judged because I like my binky'. I'm sorry but to have all of this over-whelming evidence, for others to dismiss it without any real evidence at all, is infuriating. This reminds me part of the reason I left message boards Redsox2000 (and whatever it was called before that) about 9 years ago. The good part is I have noticed that more people seem to be accept this in other threads, some that perhaps opposed it with me too.

[mcpickl]

Challenge accepted.

POINT A: Who cares if Adrian Beltre has similar numbers to Mike Lowell? We have Mike Lowell. What's the point to giving a younger replica a 3yr/40 million dollar deal, which is much more than he's worth, when you still have the original under contract for another year?

POINT B: Is exactly the same as point A

POINT C: As is this one.

POINT D: You let the horses out of the barn if there is no big upgrade rather than just sign someone a year early.

POINT E: Beltre is a good defender. Don't know if anyone is arguing against that.

POINT F: Beltre career with bases empty 786 OPS, with runners on 769. Rational thinkers would've looked that up first.

POINT G: Who cares that the park will inflate his numbers besides his agent? Doesn't mean his performance improved.

POINT H: Yes, he will sign for much less than you project.

POINT I: Yes, he's younger than Mike Lowell.

POINT J: He's been durable, but has been worse recently and unlikely to get better after 30.

POINT K: Signing anyone gives any team more flexibility, no matter who it is.

POINT L: There was no point here, you just wanted to point out you wrote the word point a lot in your post.

POINT M: Your checkmate numbers are flawed. You quoted his sOPS+ instead of his tOPS+ numbers. Your sOPS+ gives him credit for playing in Seattle as much as his home numbers are impacted by that stadium. His total OPS+ road numbers in that three year span are closer to 113. Still good, but not near as gaudy as the ones you used.


If you're going to get mad because people disagree with you just because you post "evidence" backing up your opinions you might be in the wrong place. Others here have strong opinions too. They may not necessarily change them because you want them to anymore than you would change yours.

Edited by mcpickl, 05 November 2009 - 07:59 PM.

[Foulken Fanatic]

Challenge accepted.

If you're going to get mad because people disagree with you just because you post "evidence" backing up your opinions you might be in the wrong place. Others here have strong opinions too. They may not necessarily change them because you want them to anymore than you would change yours.

I would not mind knowing how 'evidence' of Beltre's hitting ability outside of spacious parks can be shown if he's never actually, you know, hit outside of spacious parks. Give the guy a full year of playing and regaining confidence in his offensive ability in a park that favors RH's, and he IS Mike Lowell, except probably a bit better because 1) defensively he's always been better 2) speed.

[dbouchard79]

I like the move to pick up Beltre and I've mentioned it in any post that comes up regarding the corner infield positions or how to make a better Sox team for 2010. I think that the Sox need to concentrate on defense and Beltre brings that in spades. I wouldn't over pay for his services though and I don't feel that there will be a lot of competition that will drive up the bidding. The problem as is often the case with free agents, dealing with Scott Boras. I would like to see him on a 3 year deal at around $24M.

[Foulken Fanatic]

I like the move to pick up Beltre and I've mentioned it in any post that comes up regarding the corner infield positions or how to make a better Sox team for 2010. I think that the Sox need to concentrate on defense and Beltre brings that in spades. I wouldn't over pay for his services though and I don't feel that there will be a lot of competition that will drive up the bidding. The problem as is often the case with free agents, dealing with Scott Boras. I would like to see him on a 3 year deal at around $24M.

I would too but he's worth more than that. And Borass knows it.

[Tyrone Biggums]

No...The End!

[dbouchard79]

Hey look I can do that too...

Yes... The End!!!

[seantoo]

I would not mind knowing how 'evidence' of Beltre's hitting ability outside of spacious parks can be shown if he's never actually, you know, hit outside of spacious parks. Give the guy a full year of playing and regaining confidence in his offensive ability in a park that favors RH's, and he IS Mike Lowell, except probably a bit better because 1) defensively he's always been better 2) speed.

How about looking at his road stats? if you wan't to ignore that Fenway is offensive friendly then go ahead, if you want to ignore that Beltre has been hurt offensively playing in Seattle then go ahead, if one wants to ignore that Lowell has been helped playing at Fenway go ahead, if one wants to ignore that Lowell has been below average on the road go ahead. If one cannot connect the dots and see that Beltre would be a better offensive player than Mike Lowell while playing the same hip injury free defense than what more can be said.
Fanatic the following comment is not directed at you. If someone chooses to be ignorant, can that person rightfully be called ignorant? I don't think so. People drop your pre-conceived notions and do your homework, look at it objectively, Adrian Beltre is the best known available replacement for Lowell both this year and next, and Mike's contract ends this year. There is a solution available here. Take the blue pill Neo if you like, I'll take the red.
I have a question for anyone who opposes Beltre, how do you view JD Drew?

[ivanvamp]

My two cents on the Beltre discussion...

The Red Sox need to upgrade offensively with some better, younger, players. I don't think that there's too much debate about that (maybe there's some, but not much). The question, really, is this: what are the options? Mark Teixeira isn't walking through that door.

Now, there are things that Theo is probably working on, 90% of which won't ever happen, and I'm sure he's explored (or will explore) more things than we think of here at SoSH. But from where I sit, here are some legit possibilties...

- Trading a lot of chips to get Adrian Gonzalez. You then have to move Youkilis to 3b, where he'd be good, but not nearly as good, defensively speaking, as he would be at 1b. And Lowell either gets dropped or becomes a very expensive bench player.

- Trading even more chips to get Hanley Ramirez. I think this has about a 0.00000001% chance of happening, and maybe even that's generous.

- Looking at the FA list, there's not a lot out there:

- Jason Bay (he wouldn't improve the team; he'd just keep it where it is)
- Matt Holliday (he probably would help, but isn't a huge improvement over Bay offensively; defensively is another matter)
- Aubrey Huff (pretty good hitter)
- Adam LaRoche (pretty good hitter...been there, done that)
- Chone Figgins (good speed, improved his obp...not sure he's the right fit here, and likely will command a ton of $$)
- Johnny Damon (welcome back!???)
- Adrian Beltre (who we're discussing)

So yeah, that's about it. You could patch things together and hope to hit a home run after 2010, where the following guys are slated to become free agents:

- Lance Berkman
- Carlos Pena
- Albert Pujols (yeah, right....like StL would ever let this guy go)
- Joe Mauer
- Victor Martinez (already on the Sox)
- Adam Dunn
- Brad Hawpe
- Jayson Werth

So there's not even a great crop of players available after 2010, really, other than, Mauer. Obviously the Red Sox should go very hard after Mauer, but I don't know how realistic that is.

So looking at all those options, what to do? I am not a big Beltre fan. Maybe it's because he had one ridiculous year, parlayed that into a huge contract, and really hasn't done a ton since. OPS+ numbers of 93, 105, 112, 109, and 82 since joining the Mariners. That's not awful, but it's not that good...and those numbers are, of course, park-adjusted.

Let's compare 2008 and 2009 between Lowell and Beltre:

Lowell
2008 - 17 hr, 73 rbi, .274/.338/.461/.798, 103 ops+
2009 - 17 hr, 75 rbi, .290/.337/.474/.811, 104 ops+ (pretty sure you know what you're gonna get from Lowell at this point: 15-20 hr, 70's rbi, .800ish ops

Beltre
2008 - 25 hr, 77 rbi, .266/.327/.457/.784, 109 ops+
2009 - 8 hr, 44 rbi, .265/.304/.379/.683, 82 ops+

Call me crazy, but those numbers don't really look any better than Lowell's. I don't think Beltre represents any significant improvement over Lowell. And if you do sign Beltre, what do you do with Lowell? Eat his contract? Then you're essentially paying, what, $25 million or so for the 3b position? You shouldn't do that unless that player's name is Alex Rodriguez.

I guess I don't see the real upside of signing Beltre. He *might* be a tiny bit better offensively (certainly he wasn't in 2009), and he's probably a little bit better defensively. But the cost of signing him could be significant. If they could get him for $5 mil a year, sure. Doubt that, though.

Aw, hell, I don't know what they should do!!!!!!

[seantoo]

[quote name='mcpickl' date='Nov 5 2009, 07:59 PM' post='2671673']
Challenge accepted.

POINT A: Who cares if Adrian Beltre has similar numbers to Mike Lowell? We have Mike Lowell. What's the point to giving a younger replica a 3yr/40 million dollar deal, which is much more than he's worth, when you still have the original under contract for another year?
Who cares about the future? Good response. I prefer Chess over your checkers. There is no better known solution to replacing Mike Lowell. NAME ONE? Both Mike and Adrian make $12M this year if some feel he could be had for less than that's actually arguing my side.

POINT B: Is exactly the same as point A
No it is not. One was his last three years, the other his career given for context only as someone else noted why Mike got the contract he did.
POINT C: As is this one.
So you had nothing, better to white wash it then.

POINT D: You let the horses out of the barn if there is no big upgrade rather than just sign someone a year early.
Why does it have to be a BIG upgrade? He will improve the D alot and the O a little. There is no known replacement next year either. I provided the list. You have merely been argumentative with NO solution, at a boy.

POINT E: Beltre is a good defender. Don't know if anyone is arguing against that.
Some believe Mike Lowell will bounce back, maybe he will, I wouldn't count on it. Theo has stated he was going to improve the left side of the defense this off-season, with an option on Gonzalez at SS, it appears as if 3B which was a hole is the obvious place to look for said replacement. Yeah I'm way of here.

POINT F: Beltre career with bases empty 786 OPS, with runners on 769. Rational thinkers would've looked that up first.
And he knocked the crap out of the ball with the bases loaded, what is the point? I don't see what your point is. Is that a bad thing? He's been nearly the same in either situation, okay and.....
POINT G: Who cares that the park will inflate his numbers besides his agent? Doesn't mean his performance improved.
What??? If his non-counting stats improve, aka OPS+, then of couse his performance imrproves, also his performance has been hindered playing at Safeco, good grief you are argueing for its sake. I'm not here to win debates. I'd rather lose a debate and be right about the subject than the other way around.

POINT H: Yes, he will sign for much less than you project.
Great sign him up for less, I pointed this out already but you want to win a debate and miss the point.

POINT I: Yes, he's younger than Mike Lowell.
Are you sure you don't want to claim that he looks older afterall he is a foreigner ya know for arguments sake?

POINT J: He's been durable, but has been worse recently and unlikely to get better after 30.
So your looking forward to another torn testicle? He only needs to do what he has done.

POINT K: Signing anyone gives any team more flexibility, no matter who it is.
WHAT??? So there is no such thing as an albatross contract? I know let's do what you say, ignore the solution and wait until you lose all leverage and your hand's forced to overpay signing a lesser free agent next year OR give up to much in a trade next season because the other team knows it has you over a barrel. Let's go forward with the certainty of Mike Lowell's hip making him as good as he once was at third

POINT L: There was no point here, you just wanted to point out you wrote the word point a lot in your post.
Insightful

POINT M: Your checkmate numbers are flawed. You quoted his sOPS+ instead of his tOPS+ numbers. Your sOPS+ gives him credit for playing in Seattle as much as his home numbers are impacted by that stadium. His total OPS+ road numbers in that three year span are closer to 113. Still good, but not near as gaudy as the ones you used.
So using your logic 120.7 is gaudy but 113 (113.81) is merely good but not good enough? Where do you draw your line? It's like your conceeding here without conceeding. Using regular OPS for the past three seasons on the road he's .858, .861 and his injury filled 2009 with .717 for a average of .819 weighted by plate appearances. Mike Lowell still did worse on the road last year with a .713 OPS. Theo said he wanted to improve the road offense & the left side defense (who do you think he was refering to?) if Beltre is that much better on the road and Fenway inflates offense then what would you reasonably expect from Beltre in Boston? .845 by park factoring, so overall he'd be around .833 OPS. So we'd be about 3 or 4'th here in the AL
I've changed my opinion on two matters the past week alone here. I have still not heard one plausible rebuttle not even close not even in the same ball park as 13 plus reasons not one, it's like putting your finger in the dike soaking wet with water gushing all around and claiming we'll all be okay, "she's harmless", badump bump.[/i]

[PrestonBroadus Lives]

POINT J: He's been durable, but has been worse recently and unlikely to get better after 30.
So your looking forward to another torn testicle? He only needs to do what he has done.

You're dead wrong here. The shoulder issues are a huge concern. This is the second time he's had surgery to remove bone spurs from that shoulder. Bone spurs can be a recurring problem, and the fact that he's had them twice already make it more likely that it will happen again.

POINT I: Yes, he's younger than Mike Lowell.
Are you sure you don't want to claim that he looks older afterall he is a foreigner ya know for arguments sake?

Stay classy.

[mcpickl]

I have a question for anyone who opposes Beltre, how do you view JD Drew?

I view him as a much better ballplayer than Adrian Beltre.

[seantoo]

You're dead wrong here. The shoulder issues are a huge concern. This is the second time he's had surgery to remove bone spurs from that shoulder. Bone spurs can be a recurring problem, and the fact that he's had them twice already make it more likely that it will happen again.

Stay classy.

Ron B, says hi. I've looked on line and can only find evidence of his shoulder problems from this year. When was the other injury. Considering one of the injuries this year was a torn testicle, I'll give him a pass on that one, wouldn't you?
He has played in 159, 158, 156, 156, 156, 149, 143 & 111 the past several year. Not counting this year he average 154 games a season for 7 years, not that is the epitome of durable. Include this year and that brings it down to 149 games averaged over the last 8 years. So even with the shoulder this year he missed just over a month, considering he just had it done, considering how much he has actually played the last 8 years, and considering I only talked about signing him to a three year deal, no I'm not concerned. Look at Beckett & his blisters. Do you know what San Diego means in Spanish?

[mcpickl]

Ron B, says hi. I've looked on line and can only find evidence of his shoulder problems from this year. When was the other injury. Considering one of the injuries this year was a torn testicle, I'll give him a pass on that one, wouldn't you?
He has played in 159, 158, 156, 156, 156, 149, 143 & 111 the past several year. Not counting this year he average 154 games a season for 7 years, not that is the epitome of durable. Include this year and that brings it down to 149 games averaged over the last 8 years. So even with the shoulder this year he missed just over a month, considering he just had it done, considering how much he has actually played the last 8 years, and considering I only talked about signing him to a three year deal, no I'm not concerned. Look at Beckett & his blisters. Do you know what San Diego means in Spanish?

He had surgery on his left shoulder and left thumb in September 2008.
Another surgery on left shoulder this summer.

Here's one article on it.

http://www.q13fox.co...0,7329800.story

[Foulken Fanatic]

I don't think Beltre represents any significant improvement over Lowell. And if you do sign Beltre, what do you do with Lowell?

My opinion on Beltre is not centered on 2010, but on 2010 and thereafter. The issue that eventually needs addressing is what do the Sox do at 3B after Lowell is gone, which he surely is after 2010.

In case anyone missed it, MLB is very thin at 3B. There is a handful of quality and than a bunch of chaff. Beltre is not chaff. He is an elite defender who will probably hit very well in Boston, and then have that game support better road numbers - ala Mike Lowell (I am a big believer in Fenway making Mike. He's not the hitter of 2006-9 without the Monstah, home or away).

Furthermore, the farm is not teeming with 3B prospects. Matter of fact, there is no one. So what do the Sox do after 2010? Short of Young (who I think is an inferior player to Beltre), who out there is even worth considering; who would possibly compare with Beltre?

Beltre resolves not only 3B defense in 2010 but also 3B, period, thereafter. And as a bonus, he would only cost money.

I think his acquisition is a no-brainer. Theo will get this done.

Edited by Foulken Fanatic, 07 November 2009 - 08:23 AM.

[dbouchard79]

The closest things to an answer at third that the Red Sox have is Middlebrooks, who has yet to emerge, and David Renfroe, who is 18. So unless the Red Sox pull a rabbit out of their hat I think passing on Adrian Beltre is a bad move, so long as he isn't going to cost them an arm and a leg. The salaries of Mike Lowell and David Ortiz are gone... there is no turning back and the Red Sox cannot afford to let those two hold them back from making deals this year.

[pdub]

Count me in the group who thinks Mike Lowell will bounce back defensively. Its at least positive to see that he posted a very solid offensive year, and perhaps with enough rest he can get back into proper condition. Let's not forget that he was written off as completely cooked when we traded for him, this is a guy very capable of regaining his skill. He's a warrior.

And guys, let's not make this a heated argument.

[circus catch]

What I don't see mentioned here is that the Red Sox already have a 3B the same age as Beltre who is signed and can rake - Youk. We currently have holes in LF and SS, and in another year we'll need a corner infielder and a dh. Finding a new third basemen immediately is not priority.

There is a conservative approach here. It will be hard to unload Lowell for anything without eating his contract. He knows his career is on the line. If there is any way to approach next year healthier, he will. Meanwhile, currently you have Martinez and Kotchman available all year to to limit Lowell to maybe 100 games a third. Then, Lowell and Ortiz come off the books, and who knows? Maybe Anderson turns it around in AA, maybe there is quality 1B available through free agency or trade. If you could make a deal now for someone like Gonzalez, then you speed up the timetable. But Beltre?

We need a resolution to LF and SS now, there's the Beckett situation, and a need for another starter if you are not comfortable with Dice-K and Wakefield as your 4 and 5 starters, or (Buchholz at 3). All of these thing are higher priorities.

[donchoi]

What I don't see mentioned here is that the Red Sox already have a 3B the same age as Beltre who is signed and can rake - Youk. We currently have holes in LF and SS, and in another year we'll need a corner infielder and a dh. Finding a new third basemen immediately is not priority.

There is a conservative approach here. It will be hard to unload Lowell for anything without eating his contract. He knows his career is on the line. If there is any way to approach next year healthier, he will. Meanwhile, currently you have Martinez and Kotchman available all year to to limit Lowell to maybe 100 games a third. Then, Lowell and Ortiz come off the books, and who knows? Maybe Anderson turns it around in AA, maybe there is quality 1B available through free agency or trade. If you could make a deal now for someone like Gonzalez, then you speed up the timetable. But Beltre?

We need a resolution to LF and SS now, there's the Beckett situation, and a need for another starter if you are not comfortable with Dice-K and Wakefield as your 4 and 5 starters, or (Buchholz at 3). All of these thing are higher priorities.

What he said.

[seantoo]

He had surgery on his left shoulder and left thumb in September 2008.
Another surgery on left shoulder this summer.

Here's one article on it.

http://www.q13fox.co...0,7329800.story

At long last there is at last one reason to pause and consider the move. The Sox will do there due diligence in checking him out and I was glad to see it was to his non-throwing shoulder. I have a bone spur,foot, myslelf that I incurred 3 times over a 6 week period, from a type of kick-boxing about 18 years ago, and to this day it can hurt on occasion without out reason. I can see how batting could affect this. While it can re-occur usually it takes a hard impact to the bone and the body responds by 'protecting' itself with additional bone growth in that same area. This can actually happen without people realizing it because it many cases the new bone growth is later dissolved by the body to bring it back to it's original state. He finished the season so I think the Sox would go right ahead and sign him but might include a clause similiar to JD Drew's contract, thus giving the team an out clause if the injury greatly impedes the team. In conclusion I think this is something to consider but not alter our persuit of him.
I honestly thank you though becuase I could find no solid reason why we should not do this, you have provided one, it's debateable how serious it is but never the less you have provided a reason.
So now it's 1 to 13.

[PhilPlantier]

At long last there is at last one reason to pause and consider the move.

I think circus catch highlighted even better reasons.

[seantoo]

What I don't see mentioned here is that the Red Sox already have a 3B the same age as Beltre who is signed and can rake - Youk. We currently have holes in LF and SS, and in another year we'll need a corner infielder and a dh. Finding a new third basemen immediately is not priority.

There is a conservative approach here. It will be hard to unload Lowell for anything without eating his contract. He knows his career is on the line. If there is any way to approach next year healthier, he will. Meanwhile, currently you have Martinez and Kotchman available all year to to limit Lowell to maybe 100 games a third. Then, Lowell and Ortiz come off the books, and who knows? Maybe Anderson turns it around in AA, maybe there is quality 1B available through free agency or trade. If you could make a deal now for someone like Gonzalez, then you speed up the timetable. But Beltre?

We need a resolution to LF and SS now, there's the Beckett situation, and a need for another starter if you are not comfortable with Dice-K and Wakefield as your 4 and 5 starters, or (Buchholz at 3). All of these thing are higher priorities.

Believe it or not I do think Lowell will have some slight improvement on his 'D' over the beggining of last season. I'm basing this solely on observation of Mike later in the season where he appeared to move a little bit better. I don't think it will be enough. He will be 36 years old, and defense declines regardless of hip surgery especially at third which is all about reaction time and that is the first thing most athletes lose, that explosive first step. Beltre is outstanding defensively and will be slightly better than Lowell offensively if he plays at Fenway for 81 games rather than Safeco. I've modifed what I think it will take to land him, say about $31M for three years. EVEN if we kept Lowell for the year, I think it's a false arguement to say the Sox will not spend $12+$10 at third for 1 year. Mike would could also DH, in fact he'd probably split time at each so even that view-point is skewed. And for 1 year they certainly would spend, they have talked about more money for one year as a risk they are willing to deal with AND, if they decided to trade Lowell, why would they have to eat more than half his salary? If he's worth nothing than why are we keeping him at all?, some of you are arguing out of both sides of your mouth here, think about it. Most important of all is this move is not based soley on next year but the year after that and the year after that. There is no known quantity to take his place after 2010, the solution only cost money, and he's better defensively now, far better in fact, and he's arguably better offensively. How much more objective can I be? Even being objective as possible this is a no brainer. I remind folks that even with his down year this past season his OPS+ was 113 on the road, Lowell was 85 on the road the past three years. For good or bad each player has been a product of their environment, why for the love of god do people not grasp that?

[seantoo]

I think circus catch highlighted even better reasons.

No actually he did not. So if you need an new engine (LF here stay with me) you ignore the flat tire. If they are discontinuing the third base tires this year do you wait and hope some other manufacturer will make ones that fit your car? Or do you buy better available tires now knowing you'll be paying less for them after this season? He merely stated that there are other problems and we should ignore this one becuase others are a priority. LF is the biggest priority and they allready have a fall-back in place. Like it or not this is true. Sure they are not done there but these moves are exclusive of each other. I don't believe SS will be a problem, I believe they'll resign Gonzalez for less than the option he has now. Reports indicate that this is something both sides seem amicable to. Why should the Sox wait and be re-actionarry, why would they not be pro-active? Why can't they multi-task.? Why are some of you assuming that the glaring hole that was third base last season will go away because he'll will it away with another year of experience and age? It was a problem, and that is a fact.. Theo stated he wanted to improve the left side defense and road offense., it's documented. (Hell I had no idea what they meant by fixing the road offense, until I looked into this, now I know this is what they were talking about) Franconna stated that Gonzalez settled the SS hole, documented too.
What is the conclusion that the nay-sayers reach here? Put your head in the sand? The only possible other solution would be sending Youks to third, however he's gold glove caliber defense at 1B and his defense took a dive at third. If Beltre's contract demands exceed what we are willing to do, then this is the fall back move we'll likely be forced to do. Beltre at third with Youks at first, Pedrioa at second and Gonzalez at SS, likely gives us the best infield defense in the game. Put with our pitching (a healthy year of Dice-K & a full year of Buchholz) along with an offense that was within 4% of the best offense with 2/3 of the season with auto-out Varitek instead of the three hole batting Martinez and the 2 expected wins difference with the Yanks is more than negated.

[mcpickl]

No actually he did not. So if you need an new engine (LF here stay with me) you ignore the flat tire. If they are discontinuing the third base tires this year do you wait and hope some other manufacturer will make ones that fit your car? Or do you buy better available tires now knowing you'll be paying less for them after this season? He merely stated that there are other problems and we should ignore this one becuase others are a priority. LF is the biggest priority and they allready have a fall-back in place. Like it or not this is true.

This isn't the problem though. In your scenario they need a new engine right now(LF) and they will get a flat tire(3B) a year from now. And your idea is holy hell, I'm going to get a flat tire in a year! Let's buy a new one right now even though the one I have on there is adequate for another year.

You say they already have a fall back in place for LF, he mentioned SS as well, but you are worried about 3B.

This looks like the current depth chart to me.

LF Hermida, Reddick
SS Lowrie, ??
3B Lowell, Youkilis

Seems to me third base is a distant last as an issue among those spots. You seem to have some worry that if the Red Sox don't get a third option at 3B right now they won't be able to find a solution for 2011. I doubt that will be an issue. Teams with the massive resources such as Boston can always find a solution somewhere. There may be Hermida like options at 3B that year if small market teams cant afford to wait on their guys anymore like Alex Gordon or Kevin Kouzmanoff. Maybe they sign Brandon Inge. Maybe they take Michael Youngs contract off of Texas. Maybe they attack a blockbuster trade with David Wright. Not saying I advise any/all of these, or that they're all possible. Just that teams like Boston don't have to sign a guy a year early because they are afraid a solution might not be availavle to them 12 months later. That does not need to happen.

[dbouchard79]

I don't think its a matter of not having options... the Red Sox as you said will always have an option. But I have to agree with seantoo on this point, there doesn't seem to be a better option on the horizon. IMHO its impossible to move Youkilis to third base on a full time basis. Perhaps he can play an adequate third base, but his defense takes a significant drop by moving across the diamond. Why move Youkilis at all when there is an option available that actually plays third? Last time I checked the Sox were also able to negotiate with more than one free agent at a time. Just because the Sox look into Beltre doesn't meant they have to stop looking at options for LF or for SS. While we might have Mike Lowell penciled in to play third base the "flat tire" isn't a year away, we've been riding on that rim since last year hoping that we could make it to the next garage. Lowell's defense quite possibly cost us 2 - 3 games, take a look at the defense independent ERAs for our staff last year. Many sources have indicated that a large part of the issues for the Red Sox was the left side defense. I just want to reiterate this point, signing Adrian Beltre doesn't have any affect on the teams pursuit of a left fielder or a short stop.

[seantoo]

This isn't the problem though. In your scenario they need a new engine right now(LF) and they will get a flat tire(3B) a year from now. And your idea is holy hell, I'm going to get a flat tire in a year! Let's buy a new one right now even though the one I have on there is adequate for another year.

You say they already have a fall back in place for LF, he mentioned SS as well, but you are worried about 3B.

This looks like the current depth chart to me.

LF Hermida, Reddick
SS Lowrie, ??
3B Lowell, Youkilis

Seems to me third base is a distant last as an issue among those spots. You seem to have some worry that if the Red Sox don't get a third option at 3B right now they won't be able to find a solution for 2011. I doubt that will be an issue. Teams with the massive resources such as Boston can always find a solution somewhere. There may be Hermida like options at 3B that year if small market teams cant afford to wait on their guys anymore like Alex Gordon or Kevin Kouzmanoff. Maybe they sign Brandon Inge. Maybe they take Michael Youngs contract off of Texas. Maybe they attack a blockbuster trade with David Wright. Not saying I advise any/all of these, or that they're all possible. Just that teams like Boston don't have to sign a guy a year early because they are afraid a solution might not be availavle to them 12 months later. That does not need to happen.

Perhaps I did not make myself clear, becuase you have a problem in one place does not mean it's okay to ignore the other, replacing LF does not mean you ignore the slow leaking tire at third. Once again the best known solution is Beltre, a few argue vehemently that we should roill the dice and wait for the unknown solution to magically appear, all the while ignoring that 3B is a problem right now as well. I still have not seen a good reason why not to do this or a real solution, Beltre is the best answer.
When reports come in the Sox are interested in him, what will you say then?

Those that oppose say we can't spend $25 million per year at third, (which is a strawman fallacy for numerous reasons, first they state Beltre is not worth that much (12/13/yr) but then use that number to state why we can't afford to spend that much next season.
AND the Sox have stated on many occasions they are in fact willing to pay more when the risk is less in terms of years, which in this case is one year. AND No-one said the Sox HAVE to keep Lowell, why is it the Sox would have to eat all his salary? if he's such a better solution than SURELY he's worth it to some-one for half his contract if not more, unless a good prospect is included, they go on to ignore the realistic chance that his hip could be a problem this year as well. They ignore the comments made by Theo. They ignore the road numbers for Beltre and the home numbers for Lowell.

[PhilPlantier]

Perhaps I did not make myself clear, becuase you have a problem in one place does not mean it's okay to ignore the other, replacing LF does not mean you ignore the slow leaking tire at third. Once again the best known solution is Beltre, a few argue vehemently that we should roill the dice and wait for the unknown solution to magically appear, all the while ignoring that 3B is a problem right now as well. I still have not seen a good reason why not to do this or a real solution, Beltre is the best answer.
When reports come in the Sox are interested in him, what will you say then?

Those that oppose say we can't spend $25 million per year at third, (which is a strawman fallacy for numerous reasons, first they state Beltre is not worth that much (12/13/yr) but then use that number to state why we can't afford to spend that much next season.
AND the Sox have stated on many occasions they are in fact willing to pay more when the risk is less in terms of years, which in this case is one year. AND No-one said the Sox HAVE to keep Lowell, why is it the Sox would have to eat all his salary? if he's such a better solution than SURELY he's worth it to some-one for half his contract if not more, unless a good prospect is included, they go on to ignore the realistic chance that his hip could be a problem this year as well. They ignore the comments made by Theo. They ignore the road numbers for Beltre and the home numbers for Lowell.

Pointing out that $25M per year at 3B is not a "straw man." It is not an argument that diverts attention from the main issue (which is what a straw man is); instead, it's a point designed to show that the money could perhaps be better spent elsewhere, and that the 3B problem is not significant enough right now to justify investing in a patch that will require more than a one-year contract. For this season, if you sign Beltre, you are subsidizing Lowell for someone else. The question is whether Beltre's defense at 3B represents a large enough upgrade over Lowell's total performance to justify the added cost. Remember, the Red Sox aren't filling a total void at 3B.

I don't think circus catch or mcpickl were suggesting that you should ignore your metaphorical slow, leaking tire. I think the point was that there are more pressing problems for next year, and that there will likely be better options at 3B after next season than Beltre, even if it means moving Youkilis to third and finding another 1B.

[Kilgore A. Trout]

...that there will likely be better options at 3B after next season than Beltre, even if it means moving Youkilis to third and finding another 1B.

This is what gets me about all the Beltre talk. If Lowell's Sox playing days are in fact done, it does not mean the Sox have to find another 3B- we already have one. And I truly believe that Youk will be more than just an average 3B with regular playing time there. 1B are so much easier to find. It doesn't have to be someone like Adrian Gonzalez, although that would be great; you can even just let Kotchman take over there full time if you want. The offense wouldn't be so potent next year, especially if Bay does not come back or Holliday goes elsewhere, but it wouldn't be Padres bad and the defense would be spectacular.
The Sox don't need Adrian Beltre, and unless getting him means a) they only pay two years, $5 million or so for him, and b) Lowell can be found a good home that does not require the Sox picking up more than half of his contract, I don't see why you do it. Put that free agent money into a Holliday or Bay deal, or towards someone like Lackey.

[circus catch]

IMHO its impossible to move Youkilis to third base on a full time basis. Perhaps he can play an adequate third base, but his defense takes a significant drop by moving across the diamond. Why move Youkilis at all when there is an option available that actually plays third?

Many sources have indicated that a large part of the issues for the Red Sox was the left side defense. I just want to reiterate this point, signing Adrian Beltre doesn't have any affect on the teams pursuit of a left fielder or a short stop.

I'm not sure how you can say impossible. I think most would agree that Youkilis loses some defensive value at third. However, what about the offensive value of moving his bat to third? To me, without statistically analyzing it, its at least a wash. Also, think you could find a first baseman who could hit with some clout and do more than this?

Beltre road OBP the last five years (forget about Seattle), since he came to AL:

2009 .324
2008 .349
2007 .320
2006 .343
2005 .295

He's not the second coming. And the key is, you don't even need to go the route of putting Youk at third. Its just one option available. That's the main point. There are and will be options.

As for the left side defense, that issue dissipated with the deal for Alez Gonzalez. It was the Green-Lugo-Lowrie trifecta that was the biggest cause of that problem.

[mcpickl]

all the while ignoring that 3B is a problem right now as well. I still have not seen a good reason why not to do this or a real solution, Beltre is the best answer.
When reports come in the Sox are interested in him, what will you say then?

People have given you the reason multiple times in this thread why Beltre is not the best answer this year.

A) Mike Lowell is still under contract
B) Kevin Youkilis is also under contract and can play 3B
C) Adrian Beltre is not a big upgrade over either guy, if he is at all.

If all these guys were free agents and you think Beltre is the best of the three, then by all means it makes sense to sign him. They already have two of the three on the team. Why would you add a guy who even if you are really high on Beltre, can best be described as a marginal upgrade on the guys you have? Is he so much better than Lowell that he's worth buying out Lowells contract? If you are not buying out Lowell, is Beltre going to sign with a team that have two other 3B options? Of course not, he's going to go somewhere to play.

If reports come out that the Sox are interested in Beltre, I will say then what I'm saying now. It's a terrible use of resources and why isn't Theo Epstein still running the Red Sox?

[dbouchard79]

As for the left side defense, that issue dissipated with the deal for Alez Gonzalez. It was the Green-Lugo-Lowrie trifecta that was the biggest cause of that problem.

Mike Lowell had a -10 UZR last year. Picking up Gonzalez didn't fix the lack of defense at third base... it fixed the lack of defense at short stop.

People have given you the reason multiple times in this thread why Beltre is not the best answer this year.

You have given you're opinion on why Beltre isn't the answer, but there are many people who disagree. Check the main Red Sox board if you want to see more people who are calling for Beltre to be signed by the Sox. Yes Mike Lowell is under contract, he's also 35 and just had hip surgery that result in him providing the team with abysmal defense. With his -10 UZR and Beltre's 14 UZR you're looking at a 24 point swing in production. Signing Beltre doesn't mean the end of Lowell either. I think the signing of Hermida makes Kotchman expendable off our bench and he's much more attractive to trade for than Lowell and we wouldn't have to pay a team to take him off our hands. Lowell would easily be able to get 300+ at bats filling in at third base and DH. Now compare their road OBP/SLG numbers from 2006 - 2008.

Lowell Beltre
2008 .340/.514 .349/.512
2007 .338/.428 .320/.538
2006 .352/.514 .343/.462

They are almost exacty the same animal when it comes to offense. It is possible to move Kevin Youkilis over to third base but to say that he is going to be anything but league average is wishful thinking. Perhaps he does, but perhaps he is worse. We do know that he's a gold glove caliber first baseman. But if we do move Youkilis to third base we are now creating a void at first base that we have to fill. Most people would answer this by saying "trade for Adrian Gonzalez". Terrific first baseman, but in order to acquire him the Sox would need to basically gut their farm system. Why give up prospects for Gonzalez when all we have to give up for Beltre is money? What other options would you have the Sox pursue if they don't trade for Gonzalez? Is there another option available? I agree that first base is a much easier position to find a replacement but its going to cost similar money to Beltre to get that kind of production.

If reports come out that the Sox are interested in Beltre, I will say then what I'm saying now. It's a terrible use of resources and why isn't Theo Epstein still running the Red Sox?

If reports come out that the Sox are interested in pursuing Gonzalez, then I will be saying the exact same thing that you are saying here. It's a terrible use of resources and why is Theo Epstein still running the Red Sox.

We can all keep rehashing these arguments over and over and over, I guess it boils down to a matter of opinion. Good luck to the Sox, regardless of what direction the team goes in I'll be rooting for them.

[mcpickl]

You have given you're opinion on why Beltre isn't the answer, but there are many people who disagree. Check the main Red Sox board if you want to see more people who are calling for Beltre to be signed by the Sox. Yes Mike Lowell is under contract, he's also 35 and just had hip surgery that result in him providing the team with abysmal defense.

Yes, my opinion. He said no one has given a good reason why Beltre doesn't work. I've given good reasons, as have many others. Whether, he/you agrees or disagrees, they are still good reasons. Anyone is welcome to agree or disagree.

With his -10 UZR and Beltre's 14 UZR you're looking at a 24 point swing in production. Signing Beltre doesn't mean the end of Lowell either. I think the signing of Hermida makes Kotchman expendable off our bench and he's much more attractive to trade for than Lowell and we wouldn't have to pay a team to take him off our hands. Lowell would easily be able to get 300+ at bats filling in at third base and DH.

Why would Beltre sign with Boston if they weren't going to trade their incumbent 3B? This is the same situation as last year when people wanted to sign Adam Dunn without him being guaranteed 500 ABs. Guys in their prime don't sign to be in a crowded timeshare. It just doesn't happen in MLB. If Beltre can sign with Boston, who still have Lowell and Youkilis to play 3B, or sign somewhere he can be the clear starting 3B, he won't sign here.

[dbouchard79]

Why would Beltre sign with Boston if they weren't going to trade their incumbent 3B? This is the same situation as last year when people wanted to sign Adam Dunn without him being guaranteed 500 ABs. Guys in their prime don't sign to be in a crowded timeshare. It just doesn't happen in MLB. If Beltre can sign with Boston, who still have Lowell and Youkilis to play 3B, or sign somewhere he can be the clear starting 3B, he won't sign here.

Because players like playing for winning teams. Beltre would be the starter and would be guaranteed to get as many at bats as his health would allow. But lets face it, health is a concern for every team in the majors. Lowell would be the player off the bench IMO as would Hermida, giving us plenty of strength in the pinch hitting department against both right and left handed pitching. Lowell would be the player having to swallow his pride in this situation, not Beltre. Given the considerable upside in defense I think that would be a given.

[mcpickl]

Because players like playing for winning teams. Beltre would be the starter and would be guaranteed to get as many at bats as his health would allow. But lets face it, health is a concern for every team in the majors. Lowell would be the player off the bench IMO as would Hermida, giving us plenty of strength in the pinch hitting department against both right and left handed pitching. Lowell would be the player having to swallow his pride in this situation, not Beltre. Given the considerable upside in defense I think that would be a given.

Sadly, it's not the #1 concern for players. I would rank it

#1 money
#2 money
#3 money
#4 playing time
#5 winning team

You can tell a guy like Beltre when you attempt to sign him, Mike Lowell is on our team, but you're playing every day he's a bench guy. If he also has the option for similar dough say somewhere like the Angels after Figgins leaves, and your backup isn't a guy who is capable of playing every day, he is going to Anaheim.

You just can't bring a new starter into a position without shipping out the incumbent first. It doesn't work.

[dbouchard79]

You just can't bring a new starter into a position without shipping out the incumbent first. It doesn't work.

Didn't stop the Red Sox from making a huge offer to Mark Teixeira last year... and Lowell had two years on his deal at that point. But perhaps you are correct, I wouldn't pretend to be able to read a players mind though. I just think it is in the best interest of the Red Sox to sign Adrian Beltre to play third base going forward and the merits of such a move have been discussed at great length in numerous posts and threads. You can claim that a player won't do something for various reasons but I don't think you know a players motivations any more than the rest of us do.

[Foulken Fanatic]

Didn't stop the Red Sox from making a huge offer to Mark Teixeira last year... and Lowell had two years on his deal at that point. But perhaps you are correct, I wouldn't pretend to be able to read a players mind though. I just think it is in the best interest of the Red Sox to sign Adrian Beltre to play third base going forward and the merits of such a move have been discussed at great length in numerous posts and threads. You can claim that a player won't do something for various reasons but I don't think you know a players motivations any more than the rest of us do.

That's a good point you make. Everyone was clamoring for Teixeira last year, even though Youk was coming off an outstanding year at 1B and Lowell had 2 years left, not one, like now. I don't recall any concerns about Lowell/Youk back then. Nor Anderson, for that matter.

Lowell's 2010: I like Mike as much as the next guy, probably more. He has been wonderful in Boston and his inclusion in the Beckett/ManRam trade forever sealed that thing in Boston's favor. That said, I don't like the idea of going into 2010 relying on his aging bones at 3B. At best, he's an .800 OPS liability at 3B; worst, he's on and off the DL all year. And although Youk can shift on a moments notice, who then plays 1B, Kotchman? And what about 2011?

If Mike Lowell is our fulltime 3B in 2011 there is no way getting around the reality that the left side of the defense, with Gonzo, Lowell/Youk, Bay/bat will be just as horrible as it proved to be in 2009. And I don't care what anyone claims, THAT hole is what killed the Sox this past year.

[mcpickl]

Didn't stop the Red Sox from making a huge offer to Mark Teixeira last year... and Lowell had two years on his deal at that point. But perhaps you are correct, I wouldn't pretend to be able to read a players mind though. I just think it is in the best interest of the Red Sox to sign Adrian Beltre to play third base going forward and the merits of such a move have been discussed at great length in numerous posts and threads. You can claim that a player won't do something for various reasons but I don't think you know a players motivations any more than the rest of us do.

It wouldn't stop them from making an offer to Beltre either. Never said it would stop the Sox from making an offer. I said it would stop Beltre from accepting it.

Put yourself in Beltres' position. You get similar offers from Boston, who has Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis available to play third, and Anaheim who has Macier Izturis and Robb Quinlan to play third. Where are you signing? It's great to look at these things from the Red Sox perspective, but you have to look at it from the players perspective as well. These guys want clear playing time if at all possible.

[dbouchard79]

Put yourself in Beltres' position. You get similar offers from Boston, who has Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis available to play third, and Anaheim who has Macier Izturis and Robb Quinlan to play third. Where are you signing? It's great to look at these things from the Red Sox perspective, but you have to look at it from the players perspective as well. These guys want clear playing time if at all possible.

I guess this is where we differ in our views. You seem to think that you know what the player wants, I wouldn't pretend to have any idea. If I was to guess I think the player would want to get paid by a team that gives him an opportunity to win. But I think you defeat you're own argument including Youkilis as a third baseman. He's the starting first baseman in case you didn't notice.

[mcpickl]

I guess this is where we differ in our views. You seem to think that you know what the player wants, I wouldn't pretend to have any idea. If I was to guess I think the player would want to get paid by a team that gives him an opportunity to win. But I think you defeat you're own argument including Youkilis as a third baseman. He's the starting first baseman in case you didn't notice.

Unless you think Victor Martinez is catching 150 games or so and playing zero first base, Youkilis will be seeing 3B time this year. I promise you. Cute argument saying I might not notice Youk plays first though, well done.

And for me seeming to think I know what a player wants, it's not like I'm a psychologist climbing in their heads. It happens every year. There are probably half the teams in baseball that you can say have no shot at a title that year, yet guys sign with them. Do you think Adam Dunn saw a title in his future with Washington last year? Though in the example I gave, being on a team that gives him an opportunity to win wasn't relevant anyways since the other team was Anaheim. They tend to be winners as well as Boston.

[dbouchard79]

Unless you think Victor Martinez is catching 150 games or so and playing zero first base, Youkilis will be seeing 3B time this year. I promise you. Cute argument saying I might not notice Youk plays first though, well done.

Well if you can come up with a reason why Beltre wouldn't be a good option for the Red Sox, besides pretending that you know the player doesn't want to play here, then I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on the subject.

[PhilPlantier]

Well if you can come up with a reason why Beltre wouldn't be a good option for the Red Sox, besides pretending that you know the player doesn't want to play here, then I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on the subject.

Are you purposely ignoring the rest of the thread? Those who don't agree with you and seantoo (myself included) have pointed out multiple times that they don't think any sort of commitment to Beltre is worth the upgrade, if any, that he would provide. Putting aside the fact that Lowell is under contract and may still be productive next season, there are plenty of reasonable people who believe converting Youkilis to 3B is not out of the question, particularly considering how much easier it is to find offense at 1B.

I can't speak for mcpickl's thoughts on the subject, but it makes sense to me that, all things being equal, a player in Beltre's position would be concerned about playing time. If he plans to sign one more contract and then retire, then perhaps winning would be a high priority. But if he has any aspirations to signing a contract beyond his next one, it would make sense for him to be concerned about getting sufficient playing time to showcase his value. This is not about pretending to know what drives him; this is human nature, and there is plenty of precedent to make educated generalizations about it.

[dbouchard79]

Are you purposely ignoring the rest of the thread? Those who don't agree with you and seantoo (myself included) have pointed out multiple times that they don't think any sort of commitment to Beltre is worth the upgrade, if any, that he would provide.

I guess I have to ask you the same thing. Are you purposely ignoring the facts that have been presented that demonstrate Beltre would not only be an upgrade but a significant upgrade at third base? UZR alone shows a 24 point swing in production if Beltre were playing third. Many other numbers have been posted that demonstrate the offense would most likely be a draw. Not to mention that Beltre is five years younger than Lowell.

I guess I don't understand where the argument about playing time even comes in. Why would Beltre be concerned with playing time? He would be the STARTING third baseman. I think this argument stems from the inability to develop any other rational reason why Beltre shouldn't be considered an upgrade for the Red Sox. Perhaps you or mcpickl could explain to me why a player being signed to be our starting third baseman should have concerns about his playing time.

[PhilPlantier]

I guess I have to ask you the same thing. Are you purposely ignoring the facts that have been presented that demonstrate Beltre would not only be an upgrade but a significant upgrade at third base? UZR alone shows a 24 point swing in production if Beltre were playing third. Many other numbers have been posted that demonstrate the offense would most likely be a draw. Not to mention that Beltre is five years younger than Lowell.

I guess I don't understand where the argument about playing time even comes in. Why would Beltre be concerned with playing time? He would be the STARTING third baseman. I think this argument stems from the inability to develop any other rational reason why Beltre shouldn't be considered an upgrade for the Red Sox. Perhaps you or mcpickl could explain to me why a player being signed to be our starting third baseman should have concerns about his playing time.

O.K., I'll try one more time from a different approach before I just let it die and chalk it up to fanboyism:

1. For next season alone, your arguments in favor of Adrian Beltre assume that Mike Lowell cannot recover from his defensive regression with an offseason of strengthening his hip. His age suggests that he will not return to form, but I don't see any reason to assume that, given time off with the Youkilis/Martinez rotation, he cannot recover some of his range.

Also, we can cherry-pick stats all day to speculate about how his bat would translate with a half-season at Fenway. I, too, can see the severity of his home/road splits over the past few seasons. But I'm also concerned with another theme -- his inability to hit right-handed pitching... at all. If we're going to resort to imperfect measures of performance, I suppose we should also note that Lowell has had solid WARP totals until last season, when Beltre was good for 1.2 more wins.

2. For the long-term, what kind of contract do you envision Beltre commanding? Your case for signing Beltre seems to turn on the premises that:

(a) finding another 3B internally or on the market would be difficult (we agree on this); or
(b) moving Youkilis over to 3B and bringing in a productive 1B is not a viable option

I haven't seen a compelling argument for why option (b) is such a terrible idea, beyond a general reluctance to "rock the boat."

If you think that looking for a 1B is less desirable because it would likely come via a trade that costs top prospects, what would you prefer to see the team spend those prospects on? Hanley Ramirez is a pipe dream. Miguel Cabrera hasn't been shopped yet. If you trade for Felix Hernandez, you have to extend him. If you do that, you may have to contend with the loss of Beckett.

Do you think the Red Sox should sign Beltre, plug someone in as a LF, and call it an offseason?

I ask these questions, because I don't think anyone has successfully demonstrated that Beltre would be an upgrade this season, nor do I think anyone has successfully demonstrated that committing to Beltre for multiple seasons is the best way to upgrade the team given the alternatives.

[mcpickl]

I guess I have to ask you the same thing. Are you purposely ignoring the facts that have been presented that demonstrate Beltre would not only be an upgrade but a significant upgrade at third base? UZR alone shows a 24 point swing in production if Beltre were playing third. Many other numbers have been posted that demonstrate the offense would most likely be a draw. Not to mention that Beltre is five years younger than Lowell.

I guess I don't understand where the argument about playing time even comes in. Why would Beltre be concerned with playing time? He would be the STARTING third baseman. I think this argument stems from the inability to develop any other rational reason why Beltre shouldn't be considered an upgrade for the Red Sox. Perhaps you or mcpickl could explain to me why a player being signed to be our starting third baseman should have concerns about his playing time.

Sigh.

I'll try again.

Beltre would be concerned with playing time because there are two other players on the roster who most would consider solid options to also play third base. Even if you say, Adrian we promise you're going to play 150 games, please sign with us, he would have more concern with playing time here than somewhere else that has no other solid third base options. It's not like it's written into his contract he gets to start every game. Do you think any other team he would sign with would have as good a backup option at 3B as Mike Lowell? If no, then he would have less worry about playing time there, correct? Isn't it possible Beltre might think, hey Terry Francona is a pretty loyal manager, maybe he'll play Mike Lowell at 3B more often than I think he should?

Please stop with the why are you ignoring the facts that Adrian Beltre is an awesome fit here and there is nothing to deny this. Would Beltre help them defensively? Yes. Is Beltre younger? Yes. No one is denying this. When folks on the other side say, he's not great offensively either, and it's probably not the best use of resources because they have two other viable options under contract already don't say no one has given me a reason why not to sign him. Those are reasons. Just because you disagree with them doesn't mean they aren't factors to consider.

No one is ignoring facts. We are balancing whether his upgrade defensively and being younger is worth adding another fat contract to a position that is currently covered. If Lowell is a 75 on a scale of a 100 third baseman, and Beltre is a 76 he's an upgrade but probably not worth signing. If he's an 85, he would be. I don't think he's a big enough difference to tie up to a longterm deal. You do. That doesn't mean I'm ignoring facts. Just means I've evaluated them differently than you have.

[dbouchard79]

If you think that looking for a 1B is less desirable because it would likely come via a trade that costs top prospects, what would you prefer to see the team spend those prospects on? Hanley Ramirez is a pipe dream. Miguel Cabrera hasn't been shopped yet. If you trade for Felix Hernandez, you have to extend him. If you do that, you may have to contend with the loss of Beckett.

I don't see any point to trading said prospects because I see Adrian Beltre as an answer to the corner infield problem that is obvious from all of the talk about the Red Sox pursuing the likes of Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder.

But I'm also concerned with another theme -- his inability to hit right-handed pitching... at all.

I finally feel like someone has demonstrated a good reason why they don't feel good about Beltre. I'm not sure how I totally overlooked this but you are very much correct that his left vs. right split is very alarming. You have to go back as far as 2006 to see a point where there isn't an over .100 difference in his OPS.

Contract demands would have also figured into my feelings about the Sox pursuit of Beltre. He isn't worth much more than 3 years and $24M IMO, which I think translate into him signing with another team regardless.

Do you think the Red Sox should sign Beltre, plug someone in as a LF, and call it an offseason?

If you're interested in my opinion on moves that the Red Sox should make this offseason outside of Beltre take a look at the Improving the 2010 Sox thread.

Isn't it possible Beltre might think, hey Terry Francona is a pretty loyal manager, maybe he'll play Mike Lowell at 3B more often than I think he should?

I'm sorry mcpickl... it seems like every time we discuss this subject that we end up responding with "heated" comments. I think this quote of yours is absolutely absurd. Francona is the manager of the Red Sox and as such it is in his best interests to see the team being as successful as possible. If you think that the front office is going to stand idle while Francona played Lowell over one of their big offseason acquisitions then I don't know what else to say... its just not even logical.

[pdub]

Here's what I posted in the "Improving The Team 2010" thread:

"I'd much rather tough it out with Lowell, I think he'll bounce back. Offensively he was solid and he's going to be better rested. Beltre's OBP was .304 in '09, he's not too far from Gonzo territory. He also bats <.270 against some AL East teams, so he's probably going to be somewhat of a blackhole offensively. We need defense, sure, but we can just as easily acquire a 1B and plug Youkilis at 3B. Heck, we can even throw Kotchman @ 1B. He at least plays excellent defense and has a MUCH better skillset than Beltre, thus a better chance to improve. Kotchman is also younger, knows how to walk, and has a clean swing while Beltre is more of a free-swinger. If we're going to risk giving Beltre a 3yr deal then we're better off taking a chance on Kotchman. Having Beltre and A-Gon batting in the same lineup will have half of SoSH committing suicide."

And to add further: I think the average OBP between Beltre and A-Gon would barely hover over .300. We're not winning any championships with a lineup of only 7 batters (if you get my drift). I agree that Beltre can make a comeback with the bat, but its been 5 seasons since his OBP was more than .330. He has had 5 seasons marked by mediocrity or worse. Against RHP he's pretty bad (.345SLG) but against LHP he's good. If anything this guy needs a platoon.

His away numbers?

.279/.324/.393

The solid BA probably means he's just hitting singles. And I've read from others that he struggles greatly with breaking balls. So, we want to dish out $20M+ for a one-dimensional hitter who plays good defense? Normally I wouldn't mind too much but we:

a) Can plug Youkilis at 3B and get AT LEAST average defense;
b) Are already looking at having no offense @ SS; and
c) Need roster flexibility.

Signing Beltre accomplishes none of this. Also, what to make of his monster contract year? Its insane how you can go from being an MVP candidate to slugging below .350. Steroids? He's been a completely different player for 5 seasons now. And while I know the following stats don't tell the whole story, I'm mentioning it regardless: Mike Lowell had a higher fielding percentage and less errors than Beltre in 2009.

So, here's the reasonable thing to do:

Follow Mike Lowell's health progress. If he's looking good then stick with him, he posted an .811OPS and has been consistent for the team. He is also only one year removed from being a solid defender while Beltre has been mediocre for a while. Lowell is also more familiar with AL East pitching. If, however, Lowell is looking bad then sign a defensive stopgap who can take over late innings for Lowell.

Also, what was Beltre's BABIP? It may help us fit another piece of the puzzle.

Edited by pdub, 08 November 2009 - 07:05 PM.

[mcpickl]

I'm sorry mcpickl... it seems like every time we discuss this subject that we end up responding with "heated" comments. I think this quote of yours is absolutely absurd. Francona is the manager of the Red Sox and as such it is in his best interests to see the team being as successful as possible. If you think that the front office is going to stand idle while Francona played Lowell over one of their big offseason acquisitions then I don't know what else to say... its just not even logical.

It could be because you tend to misread everything I write.

I said Beltre could think that Francona would play Lowell more than Beltre thinks he should. Not that Francona actually would play Lowell more than deserved, not that the front office would allow him to play a lesser player, nothing of the sort. Though if it ever came to such a situation, Francona probably would play Lowell more than most would like. See Varitek, Jason this year after Victor was acquired. I think 99.3% of people wanted Victor to see much more time behind the plate than he did.

And the only problem I have with your position is you keep saying no one has come up with any reasons that make sense to not go after Beltre. When many people have given you multiple reasons. You just don't agree with them. Thats not the same thing.

[PhilPlantier]

Phils Decline Feliz Option

This has been touched on, but just a reminder that the list of suitors for Beltre's services keeps growing... he wouldn't come as cheap as he should.

[circus catch]

Francona is the manager of the Red Sox and as such it is in his best interests to see the team being as successful as possible. If you think that the front office is going to stand idle while Francona played Lowell over one of their big offseason acquisitions then I don't know what else to say... its just not even logical.

It's an interesting issue, if you approach it singularly: Assuming the Red Sox got Beltre and still had Lowell, what would Francona think? And to me, you just can't take out the human element. Management and Francona know Lowell. They know about his flawed defense, his turtle-esque baserunning, and his nagging injuries. They also know he's a winner, a World Series MVP, and a hitter. They know that he can handle the Boston Market (and not just the chicken pot pie). They know that if he can get healthier, his defense will improve, possibly vastly. They also know that their offense could be pitched to in 2009, and sacrificing any more of it is undesirable. And they know putting Beltre in the lineup would sacrifice offense.

Actually, I think I ended up making a different argument. Even if Beltre is the better player, I just can't see the Red Sox going in this direction. I can't see them with both Beltre and Lowell on the roster, and I can't see them paying half or more of his salary to deal him in order to play Beltre. What's more, it sure seems that the Sox can't see it either. If you believe all of the Texeira and Adrian Gonzalez rumors, the Sox certainly seem to be dreaming of a future with Youk at 3rd, and that adding another big bat is the priority.

[dbouchard79]

This has been touched on, but just a reminder that the list of suitors for Beltre's services keeps growing... he wouldn't come as cheap as he should.

I think in the end that this will be the deciding factor. I don't think that the Red Sox will have an opportunity to acquire him because he is going to command more money than he is worth and the front office has demonstrated an unwillingness to pay players more than they value them. On top of the growing list of teams that have a hole at third base is the fact that he is a Scott Boras client entering what will probably be his final opportunity to get a contract of any real value. It'll end up having too many years attached to it as well as to much money.