152 replies to this topic

[RedOctober3829]

The Boston Red Sox have acquired outfielder Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins for Triple-A left-hander Hunter Jones and a left-hander from Boston's Double-A affiliate, according to a major-league source.

Hermida hit .258 with 13 home runs with 47 RBIs for the Marlins last season. Florida drafted Hermida as the 11th pick in the first round of the 2002 draft.

Didn't take long to get the Hot Stove going. This can't be Bay insurance. Is he a piece to use in another deal in the offseason or does he figure to replace Rocco as the 4th OF?
Link

Edited by RedOctober3829, 05 November 2009 - 05:37 PM.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Jose Alvarez and Hunter Jones going to Florida.

edit:

Career splits
.351/.441 v RHP
.321/.376 v LHP

-8.0 UZR/150 in 3400 innings in RF.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 05 November 2009 - 05:45 PM.

[philly sox fan]

The AA lefty is Doubrant? Any other candidates.

I must say I'm enjoing the quick p ace of deals all over MLB. Could be a crazy interesting winter.

[Laser Show]

I'm inclined to think this is either:

A) Plan E or something for the outfield, available now for insurance and at little cost, or

B) To be flipped for someone else.

Interesting to say the least. I don't see him as the fourth outfielder. With Baldelli gone, wouldn't Theo prefer a righty for that role?

EDIT: Clarity

Edited by Laser Show, 05 November 2009 - 05:43 PM.

[phragle]

What the hell

[bd11]

Olney actually said the Sox were interested in Hermida earlier today. Nice, solid start to the hot stove season.

[RedOctober3829]

I'm inclined to think this is either:

A) Plan E for the outfield, available at little cost, or

B) To be flipped for someone else.

Interesting to say the least. I don't see him as the fourth outfielder. With Baldelli gone, wouldn't Theo prefer a righty for that role?

He doesn't have a gigantic split against righties or lefties (..274/.351 .441/.792 vs righties vs. .237/.321/.376/.697 vs. lefties). Not an ideal 4th OF.

[philly sox fan]

Jose Alvarez and Hunter Jones going to Florida.

Where are you getting Alvarez as the 2nd player?

He wasn't on the end of year AA roster. Neither was Doubrant now that I look. The only lefties listed are Dobies, Hottovoy and Kris Johnson. Or the answer to - can you name 3 relatively highly drafted lefty college pitchers with very limited futures?

Could mean off of the AA off-season roster if they've already established those. More likely just a wrong detail from the source.

This looks like a low end value buy. Hermida has been on some possible non-tender lists so Fla wasn't looking to get much from him. Sox can keep him around for a couple months with no cost while it figures out what to do in LF and whether or not he's useful to someone in a flip.

[David Laurila]

This has been confirmed.

[j44thor]

I'm inclined to think this is either:

A) Plan E for the outfield, available at little cost, or

B) To be flipped for someone else.

Interesting to say the least. I don't see him as the fourth outfielder. With Baldelli gone, wouldn't Theo prefer a righty for that role?

You would also think they would like someone who can field for the 4th OF role. He has almost the same exact UZR/150 as Bay does 11.2 vs. 11.3

He was once a top prospect and is only going to be 26 but I don't quite understand where he fits in.

[mjswarner]

Remember when Hermida was going to be involved in a Manny trade?

[Jed Zeppelin]

Home: .253/.328/.393
Away: .276/.359/.456

[Laser Show]

Remember when Hermida was going to be involved in a Manny trade?

That was the first thing I thought of. Quite the fall in a year or so.

Here's the source for Alavarez in the deal:

http://twitter.com/J...uses/5462042023

#Marlins trade Jeremy Hermida to Boston for left-handed pitchers Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Where are you getting Alvarez as the 2nd player?

Gammo's twitter:

Red Sox acquiring OF Jeremy Hermida for minor league pitchers Jose Alvarez and Hunter Jones a great gamble.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 05 November 2009 - 05:50 PM.

[philly sox fan]

I get all of my Marlins news from Clark Spenser and Manny Navarro and so should you.

look at those pictures and you will too

Edit: Gammo is going to be long dead when Manny Navarro is our new MLB rumor overlord.

[PaulinMyrBch]

Amalie's twitter as well. Everyone is correct or getting the same bad info.

[mabrowndog]

Well, that's one way to avoid the 40-man squeeze. I expect more of this.

As a 21-year-old, Hermida was the Marlins' #1-ranked prospect by Baseball America heading into 2005. Here are some talking points I culled from BA's writeup:

A polished hitting approach ... Smooth, quick stroke ... Advanced plate discipline for his age ... Strong work ethic and good makeup ... Comfortable working deep in counts, projects to have power to all fields ... For now, he's mainly content to line singles and doubles to the opposite field ... Scouts have compared him to Eric Chavez, Andy Van Slyke & Paul O'Neill ... Has come a long way defensively, but needs to improve his routes, jumps and the accuracy of his throws from RF ... It would help if he showed as much interest in his defense as his hitting ... Projects as a 25-HR threat, but needs to make adjustments (adding lift to his swing, learning to pull inside pitches, adding bulk to his frame ... Durability is a minor concern after missing time in each of his first 3 pro seasons (ankle in 2002, heel in 2003)

Here's what I like: His walk rate, his youth (still just 25), his price (entering his second arb year after making $2.25M last season), and how his LHH stroke will play out at Fenway.

Here's what concerns me: His eroding power (From 32 dbl & 18 HR in 484 PA two years ago, to 14 dbls & 13 HR in 491 PA last season). However, he struggled with an oblique strain for most of the year, which might explain his decline, but that in itself is reason for concern -- echoing the worries of 5 years ago. Also, the speed he exhibited in the minors has never materialized on the basepaths at the MLB level.

So it seems we're getting a kid with much higher upside than Baldelli, albeit with similar health concerns.

[czar]

At 25, he's still a great gamble (at what will likely be ~$2-3 mil) for minor league filler. Worst case you spin him again later in the winter or just non-tender him. Best case you now an OF4/5 with decent skills and upside.

I'm a big fan of jumping all over raw talent (even with poor results-- although he's only a couple seasons removed from a 23 year old with an 870+ OPS) when it comes at essentially no cost to the team.

Edited by czar, 05 November 2009 - 06:00 PM.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Theo got a dime for two nickles. Its hard to excited about a dime, but its better than two nickels.

[maufman]

I like the trade. Hermida posted the best walk rate of his career in 2009 (ignoring a 2005 cup of coffee) and is entering his age 26 season. He's not the future star he appeared to be after 2007, but a league average offensive campaign from Hermida in 2010 is a very reasonable expectation. In fact, he should be a good deal better than that if the Sox used him in a strict platoon role (Hermida sucks against LHP). There are a number of right-handed OFs on the free-agent market who would make serviceable platoon partners for Hermida.

I see this as a sign the FO realizes the bidding for Holliday and Bay might get out of hand. That's a good thing in my book.

I don't see this as a set-up for a bigger deal. As a trading chip, Alvarez was likely more valuable than Hermida.

[David Laurila]

Not directly related, but the Red Sox have also announced that Fernando Cabrera, Joey Gathright and Nick Green have been optioned to Pawtucket.

[mabrowndog]

One more thing: His 2007 numbers (.296/.369/.501/.870) were generated in large part by an uncharacteristic .353 BABIP. His BABIP for 06-08-09 was .309-.310-.309. His OPS those three seasons: .700-.729-.740.

[DieHardSoxFan1]

In 2007, Jeremy Hermida, then 23, hit .369/.501 and was 10th among RF's in BRAA at +18.1 (min: 450 PA). He's not a good defender, but he's certainly no worse than Jason Bay. Seems like a no-brainer of a deal.

One more thing: His 2007 numbers (.296/.369/.501/.870) were generated in large part by an uncharacteristic .353 BABIP. His BABIP for 06-08-09 was .309-.310-.309. His OPS those three seasons: .700-.729-.740.

But it's not like he was getting hit-lucky on singles. His ISOp that season was over .200.

Edit -- Hermida would make an interesting platoon mate with Ryan Spilborghs, if it comes to that.

Edited by DieHardSoxFan1, 05 November 2009 - 06:40 PM.

[philly sox fan]

Two years of lousy offense and a career of poor defense really makes his numbers to date pretty lousy - a career line of 2.9 WAR in 1929 PA is pretty far below average.

[Wade Boggs Hair]

I've always liked Hermida's great plate discipline in the minor leagues (he walked 111 times against 89 strikeouts as a 21 year-old in AA in 2005), but admittedly his '08 and '09 seasons have taken some of the shine off. If he's been fighting an injury, hopefully it's one that the Red Sox doctors can fix better than the Marlins doctors (cf. Beckett's blister problem).

Even if he doesn't return to his '07 form, Hermida would still make an interesting platoon partner with Baldelli. You get a career .274/.351/.441 hitter against RHPs and a career .295/.346/.485 hitter against LHPs.

[FelixMantilla]

Not much to lose here IMO. You get a MLB player for two guys that will struggle to get to the big time.

[mjswarner]

Remember when Hermida was going to be involved in a Manny trade?

Here was the SoSH reaction to that 30-Jul-08 story.

[TheYellowDart5]

On the plus side, it's good that the Sox already have a backup plan should both Holliday and Bay fall through (provided they can find a RH'er who's not as fragile as Baldelli to platoon with Hermida).

On the negative side, it's not a very good backup plan. But at least it's something.

[philly sox fan]

It just dawned on me...

You could make a pretty nifty analogy between Hermida this year and Nick Swisher last year. Both were ballyhood 2002 1st rd draft picks. Both were coming off lousy years and their organizations just wanted to dump them. Huge market team picked them up for nothing as hedges against not getting a premier corner FA. And then...?

Now the Yankees went out of their way to say that Swisher would be their 1B and they had no interest in Teixeira. I don't expect Epstein to say that about the Sox interest in Bay/Holliday, but I suppose he might.

The Yankees signed Teixeira anyway and originally (and foolishly) had Swisher penciled in a platoon with Nady. Nady got hurt and Swisher had a real nice bounce back year.

We'll see how Hermida in Boston plays out.

But Epstein nothing but a Brian Cashman copycat? You see what having the most recent WS win does to change perception?

[SoxScout]

Hermida for his age 26 and 27 seasons for Jones and Alvarez? Amazing. Obviously you don't know if he is going to put it all together into some very good seasons, but when the Marlins agreed to this you have to think the front office was pretty pumped.

[Talon]

Nice solid pickup for the Sox should, as mentioned earlier, the Bay & Holliday sweepstakes get out of hand early. Meanwhile even if he does not get flipped you get a solid, if not potentially remarkable cost controlled player for the next two seasons. These types of deals never hurt in the long run, so I'm good with it.

[Talon]

Not directly related, but the Red Sox have also announced that Fernando Cabrera, Joey Gathright and Nick Green have been optioned to Pawtucket.

[thread sabotage]
Outrighted? If that's the case I would assume all 3 will elect free agency. I'd like to see Nick Green come back on short money, however I am going to guess some mid market team will throw a high six figure contract to him next year to be a top utility guy.

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I'm somewhere between neutral and positive on this deal. Losing Jones and Alvarez doesn't concern me in the least, they're easily replaceable. I'm willing to risk the possibility that Hermida's declining stats are real for the potential reward that his upside brings. The team doesn't have to stay married to the guy, they didn't give up much to get him, so if he doesn't work, well it was a nice try. If he bombs in ST then they can release him. If he shows something, he'd be an interesting reclamation project who could enjoy hitting at Fenway. Maybe he's just one of those guys who needs a fresh start.

Really nothing to lose here, even if it isn't very exciting. I'd rather go into ST with Hermida than I would Alvarez/Jones.

[Eric Van]

What the hell

This is a guy who was the #11 pick in the draft, (as others have pointed out while I was compiling the more arcane numbers later) hit .293 / .457 / 518 with 111 BB and 89 K at age 21 in AA, and 2 years later hit .296 / .369 / .501 in his second season in MLB, in a pitcher's park. He was available because he's gone way backwards the last two years and is eligible for 5th year arb, and because they have a guy ready to take his job in Jai Miller* and uber-prospect Mike Stanton a year away.

His projection is completely unimpressive but this is obviously a scouting-driven move; somebody thinks there's a shot that they can fix him.

He has massive home / road splits and big platoon splits. Even without fixing him, his road numbers versus RHP look perfectly credible ... let's see, if he had the same platoon split home and away, he would have been about .363 / .488 two years ago and .367 / .448 last year, .366 / .472 career.

His '08 season was killed by two horrendous slumps:

.310 / .360 / .484 (136 PA) through May 13
.186 / .248 / .289 (105 PA) May 14 - June 11
.272 / .361 / .482 (219 PA) June 12 - Aug 10
.137 / .222 / .192 in (82 PA) Aug 11 - Sept 20
(finished 6-15, HR, 2 BB)

Last year he was maybe streakier:

.308 / .455 / .538 (66 PA) to April 24
.172 / .304 / .207 (69 PA) April 26 - May 14
.333 / .383 / .505 (120 PA) May 15 - June 13
.207 / .268 / .307 (153 PA) June 14 - Aug 7
.292 / .413 / .446 (80 PA) Aug 8 to end

Approximate career splits by opposition quality (numbers for each season weighted by AB and averaged):

Pitcher with ERA <= 3.50, .748
Pitcher with ERA 3.51 to 4.25, .677
Pitcher with ERA 4.26 to 5.25, .777
Pitcher with ERA over 5.25, .896

That's interesting if it's not random. Most guys have much steeper splits.


*Miller was their #30 prospect two years ago but fell off the rankings last year despite having had an even better year -- that was just because their system was loaded (ranked 2 overall). He was a super-toolsy 4th rounder signed away from playing wide receiver and shooting guard at Stanford who took a while to develop baseball skills. Plus-plus speed, strong arm. He repeated AAA at age 24 and improved his numbers across the board -- DT has his MLE as .267 / .334 / .489 = .277 EqA and they project his peak as .284. Good career numbers in CF and corners in TotalZone.

Edited by Eric Van, 05 November 2009 - 06:49 PM.

[Sprowl]

Hermida's HR power seems to be mostly to RF with a little bit to CF, so it's easy to imagine that Fenway will hold back such power as he has.

hit chart: click ALL for distributions: http://florida.marli...v...&statType=1

The price was cheap: there's nothing about Hunter Jones worth seeing again. He's not a LOOGY, he's got poor velocity, his secondary pitches are meh at best, and his command isn't very impressive.

Anybody have a strong opinion about Jose Alvarez?

[SoxScout]

When Epstein talked to Hermida, he could not define his role. Boston wants to re-sign Jason Bay, who thus far has brushed off a four-year, $60 million offer. If the Red Sox don't sign Bay, they'd like to sign Matt Holliday, and they have a mutually respectful relationship with Scott Boras and a family connection between Holliday and John Farrell.

But if they fall short on Bay and Holliday, they could get a right-handed bat and platoon him with Hermida, whose natural stroke has been to left-center. Or they could sign Bay or Holliday and use Hermida as a role player in left, right and DH.

"Someday, somewhere, Hermida is going to figure it out," says one NL GM. "He's expensive for most teams, but at 25 he's a great gamble for Boston."

Gammons

[Rudy Pemberton]

The Red Sox have a mutually respectful relationship with Boras again? Good to hear, although it seems like they always have such a relationship with him this time of year, that inevitably turns sour by the end of the off-season.

I like the move as depth, but I'll be mighty dissapointed if Hermida and Baldelli (or someone similar) is the Red Sox solution to the LF issue. He's been a crappy player for three out of his 4 seasons.

If I was Eric Van, I'd point out his 295 / 371 / 485 career #s in interleague.

[pokey_reese]

Honestly, more than the Boras-friendship claims, I am wondering about the family connection between Holliday and Farrell. Does anyone know how close the link is? Are they cousins? Did Holliday marry Farrell's daughter? Granted, I can't imagine that it would affect negotiations, but I am curious since I haven't heard this before. Either way I like the Hermida trade on its own merits, I think that Theo did a good job of turning nothing into something, but I agree that I don't want to see this team start next season with a platoon in LF. As someone once said, if you have two starters playing the same position, then you have none.

[Eric Van]

If I was Eric Van, I'd point out his 295 / 371 / 485 career #s in interleague.

Which is consistent with his splits by opposition quality.

One of his '07 hot streaks started on an interleague road trip, in fact.

[Steve Dillard]

Honestly, more than the Boras-friendship claims, I am wondering about the family connection between Holliday and Farrell. Does anyone know how close the link is? Are they cousins? Did Holliday marry Farrell's daughter?

Holliday's dad was Oklahoma State coach who hired Farrell as Pitching coach/recruiting coordinator.
http://sonsofsamhorn...&...t&p=1683213

[The Boomer]

Not directly related, but the Red Sox have also announced that Fernando Cabrera, Joey Gathright and Nick Green have been optioned to Pawtucket.

Hermida for these 3 plus Alvarez and Jones is still a huge plus. Hermida has been a disappointing underachiever but more than being a possible replacement for Bay, he might be groomed to replace Drew when he inevitably misses time due to injury and after the end of his contract. Hermida has the plate patience that the Sox covet and has both power and speed upsides that have been inconsistently evident so far in his major league career. With Hermida entering his prime, this is an awesome buy low move. Fenway Park should be a much better place for him to hit than that cavernous stadium in Miami. He fulfills a team need so well that I don't see him being flipped any time soon although he might be more of a transitional outfielder until Kalish and Westmoreland get to the majors.

Position by position, the Yankees matched or exceeded the every day Sox lineup this year. While Theo is on record saying that next season will be the last that the team as now constituted will be relatively intact, I see him making more moves to make the lineup younger because, depending on who the Yankees retain from their own aging roster, getting younger overall is one advantage that can keep the Sox competitive without getting into unwinnable bidding wars for whoever the Yankees will import (Bay or Holliday to replace Damon?) as free agents this winter.

[Sprowl]

Fenway Park should be a much better place for him to hit than that cavernous stadium in Miami.

Why do you think this? Judging by his hit charts, most of his home runs in Florida's Land Shark Stadium have been out to straight right field -- not down the line (where they might catch the Pesky Pole) and not to left field, where Fenway might work to his advantage. I don't see any data to back up the assertion from Gammons that he has a natural stroke to left-center. Instead, most of his power goes to precisely that part of the field where Fenway Park is bigger than Land Shark Stadium. Fenway is plenty cavernous in its own right, especially for LH pull hitters.

[David Laurila]

Theo on Hermida:

http://www.baseballp...iltered/?p=1431

[The Boomer]

Why do you think this? Judging by his hit charts, most of his home runs in Florida's Land Shark Stadium have been out to straight right field -- not down the line (where they might catch the Pesky Pole) and not to left field, where Fenway might work to his advantage. I don't see any data to back up the assertion from Gammons that he has a natural stroke to left-center. Instead, most of his power goes to precisely that part of the field where Fenway Park is bigger than Land Shark Stadium. Fenway is plenty cavernous in its own right, especially for LH pull hitters.

Call it the Fred Lynn syndrome. I could see Hermida's career inverting what Fred Lynn did early in and later away from Boston. Good lefty hitters with less than Ortiz quality pull power are that much better when they hit to all fields and take advantage of Fenway's dimensions. How Hermida hit while at Florida doesn't necessarily predict what he will do with this perfect change of scenery. If he can properly adjust to his new surroundings, Hermida could projectibly exceed his 2007 season in the National League.

[Sprowl]

Call it the Fred Lynn syndrome. I could see Hermida's career inverting what Fred Lynn did early in and later away from Boston. Good lefty hitters with less than Ortiz quality pull power are that much better when they hit to all fields and take advantage of Fenway's dimensions. How Hermida hit while at Florida doesn't necessarily predict what he will do with this perfect change of scenery. If he can properly adjust to his new surroundings, Hermida could projectibly exceed his 2007 season in the National League.

Some left-handed hitters love Fenway -- they tend to have opposite-field power (like Adrian Gonzalez, for whom hitting in Fenway would be heaven) or to be spray-hitters. Ortiz recovered a little bit of his power in 2009 when he became a spray-hitter and started going the other way. Not every hitter can be a spray-hitter, the ballpark notwithstanding, so I think you're asking a little much of a "proper adjustment" to new surroundings. I don't see anything in Hermida's charts to indicate that he has been or can be a spray-hitter, and there's definitely no opposite-field power. I certainly hope he's got the good approach, sharp eyes and patience at the plate that Theo sees in him, and perhaps his pull power might help the Red Sox on the road, but hoping for a Fenway boost to Hermida's numbers seems to me like wishful thinking.

[Carmine Hose]

Another "value" deal. If they keep doing these, it'll get a lot harder to see the "value" in paying for their product.

However they go about it, they need to start getting some more stud players.

[CaptainLaddie]

Another "value" deal. If they keep doing these, it'll get a lot harder to see the "value" in paying for their product.

However they go about it, they need to start getting some more stud players.

You do realize they offered something like 170M to a guy last season, right?

[DannyHeep]

Theo got a dime for two nickles. Its hard to excited about a dime, but its better than two nickels.

Last year we spent $5M on a Penny. At least we are moving in the right direction.

[yecul]

If the choice is between giving Bay a big deal and having a platoon/split of Hermida and (fill in name) then I would prefer the latter. If it's between giving Holliday a big deal and the platoon/split... well, I am not 100% on that one.

Hard to really complain about this. A good value move. The defense is a concern.

Edited by yecul, 05 November 2009 - 09:18 PM.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

Another "value" deal. If they keep doing these, it'll get a lot harder to see the "value" in paying for their product.

However they go about it, they need to start getting some more stud players.

I know! I said the same thing to the guy who runs my mutual funds . . . stop buying undervalued resources, and get apeshit on Berkshire!

Seriously though, the guys they shipped for Hermida weren't going to have any affect on any "blockbuster" deals, nor does Hermida affect their financial flexibility - however, as a fallback option, he might affect their leverage in negotiations with Bay/Holliday, and also presents a much more appealing disaster scenario than before. This is exactly the kind of marginal deal that separates smart, rich front offices (like ours) from ones that are just rich (like the Cubs).