336 replies to this topic

[Rough Carrigan]

The fielding bible numbers for Jermaine Dye are that the last 3 years he was -24, -9 and -12 runs playing right for the White Sox. And that seems right to me. His hands are decent but he waddles around out there and makes about zero really good plays.

[Judge Mental13]

No thanks on Dye. He turns 36 next month and can barely run anymore. I don't want that in an outfield platoon.

As for the "Sox must play the Holliday/Bay situation this way" in regards to Boras I really don't think them saying "well, if we don't get Bay, we're not going any higher on Holliday" is going to fool Mr. Boras. Especially since Bay and Holliday are both better than Melky Cabrera and Nick Swisher.

[bosockboy]

No thanks on Dye. He turns 36 next month and can barely run anymore. I don't want that in an outfield platoon.

As for the "Sox must play the Holliday/Bay situation this way" in regards to Boras I really don't think them saying "well, if we don't get Bay, we're not going any higher on Holliday" is going to fool Mr. Boras. Especially since Bay and Holliday are both better than Melky Cabrera and Nick Swisher.

Not necessarily...Hermida might have been part of a prepared in advance Plan C to deal with Boras this winter. Plan C could be a Hermida/RHH platoon while they spend their cash on pitching. Boras knows they already have one half of a very solid platoon in place and can fill the other half very well for a lot less money. After last winter's debacle, I'm sure the Sox have come to play ball with Boras this winter.

[Drek717]

Not necessarily...Hermida might have been part of a prepared in advance Plan C to deal with Boras this winter. Plan C could be a Hermida/RHH platoon while they spend their cash on pitching. Boras knows they already have one half of a very solid platoon in place and can fill the other half very well for a lot less money. After last winter's debacle, I'm sure the Sox have come to play ball with Boras this winter.

I'd be surprised if that plan C isn't a strong likelihood regardless of Boras' games. Hermida has a lot of talent and this organization has rolled the dice on similar young talents before with success. They obviously are just completely unwilling to go over what they see as fair value for a player.

With Jason Bay I think its going to come down to location. It sounds like he really wants to go to Seattle, while his agent is angling for a big deal like Sabathia's last year, where the Yankees paid him too much money for him to even consider a preferred location. Without the Yankees in the picture though, and given recent economic conditions, Bay's agent is likely going to have a hard time swinging that kind of blow your socks off deal. It'll come down to roughly even money and Bay choosing where he'd prefer playing. I'm betting that'll be Seattle, if they're seriously in it. If not then we'd have a shot at getting him for ok money.

Holiday will just go wherever he gets paid the most, that is how Boras does business. So what that will boil down to is if the Yankees are content with a Melky/Granderson/Swisher OF, or if they'd prefer Holiday/Granderson/Swisher and using Melky as part of a Halladay deal or some other move. I'd be pretty surprised if its not the later. As a result Holiday will quickly be priced out of being a good value and therefore out of everyone's price range but the Yankees. Even if they don't get involved there is some chance that a team looking to make a splash gives more money than he's reasonably worth, and that almost definitely won't be the Sox.

If Hermida is plan C then its a fallback with a very high probability of being executed. Probably higher than either plans A or B.

[kazuneko]

I'd be surprised if that plan C isn't a strong likelihood regardless of Boras' games. Hermida has a lot of talent and If Hermida is plan C then its a fallback with a very high probability of being executed. Probably higher than either plans A or B.

Haven't heard anything more about the Sox and Mike Cameron (there was some early reports that the Sox were one of the teams that expressed interest in him) but he he might also represent a possible plan C/D. The Sox would instantly go from one of the worst OF defenses in baseball to the perhaps the best (especially if Seattle signs Bay for LF). Sure, they would lose about 120 points of OPS out of LF but considering they probably have already picked up more than that at SS, and the the fact the difference in defensive value could hardly be more extreme (comparing a Cameron CF, Ellsbury LF 2010 w/ a Bay LF, Ellsbury CF 2009), it would probably be worth it. It also gives a viable option that won't require either a long-term commitment or rolling the dice w/ a young guy like Hermida.
Heck, if they followed a Cameron signing w/ a Beltre signing they could transform the team from last year's defensively shabby crew to the odds-on favorite to have the best defense in all of baseball in 2010, all while losing little (if anything) in the way of offense. It would also leave them w/ an extra 1st round and supplemental round draft pick (once Bay signs elsewhere).

[Eric Van]

The fielding bible numbers for Jermaine Dye are that the last 3 years he was -24, -9 and -12 runs playing right for the White Sox. And that seems right to me. His hands are decent but he waddles around out there and makes about zero really good plays.

I am looking at an unfinished corner OF projection spreadsheet (I still have to look up FB numbers for 97 other guys) that has Dye projected as 8 RARP. Including -13 in the field.

Furthermore, in the course of putting this together I discovered that guys tend to lose 4 or 5 runs of defensive performance playing the corner they're less familiar with.

You'd be better off playing Gary Matthews in CF and Ellsbury in LF. You'd probably be better off playing Mark Kotsay in CF and Ellsbury in LF. That's some serious kind of not better off.

[xjack]

I am looking at an unfinished corner OF projection spreadsheet (I still have to look up FB numbers for 97 other guys) that has Dye projected as 8 RARP. Including -13 in the field.

Of course, Bay was a minus-13 last year too.

[twothousandone]

Holiday will just go wherever he gets paid the most, that is how Boras does business.

And it's what player hire him to do (which he's very good at). It says more about Holliday than Boras.

Plan C could be a Hermida/RHH platoon

Xavier Nady? His agent is . . . Scott Boras, right? How might that work out? Do the Sox offer Nady a one-year deal, say for $2.5 million, with a vesting option for $7 million based on games payed? Doesn't Boras then have an incredible conflict of interest -- if the Sox throw away the $2.5 and sign Holliday anyway, Nady never has a shot at the $7 million. But maybe it also, and very publicly, suggests the Sox are out of the Holliday sweepstakes. And it raises the stakes in the poker game of what the Sox are willing to pay Holliday.

I'm sure Boras has a plan for something like this, but it could be fun. It sure would help if Nady were a better hitter against lefties than against righties.

Edited by twothousandone, 09 December 2009 - 10:46 AM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'm sure Boras has a plan for something like this, but it could be fun. It sure would help if Nady were a better hitter against lefties than against righties.

He is. .854 OPS vs lefties, .769 vs righties. He'd be a great platoon partner for Hermida.

[mr_smith02]

Thought this might be the best thread for this link:

Sox Interest in Holliday Overstated

[Drek717]

And it's what player hire him to do (which he's very good at). It says more about Holliday than Boras.

Of course, and there isn't anything wrong with that. But its reality. If you want a Boras client just had Scott a blank check and he's yours, end of story. But you might not like the number he writes in after the shine of a big new signing wears off.

Xavier Nady? His agent is . . . Scott Boras, right? How might that work out? Do the Sox offer Nady a one-year deal, say for $2.5 million, with a vesting option for $7 million based on games payed? Doesn't Boras then have an incredible conflict of interest -- if the Sox throw away the $2.5 and sign Holliday anyway, Nady never has a shot at the $7 million. But maybe it also, and very publicly, suggests the Sox are out of the Holliday sweepstakes. And it raises the stakes in the poker game of what the Sox are willing to pay Holliday.

It only becomes an issue if the Sox choose to overpay for someone's services in LF, and I'd bet they would much sooner do that for Holiday than Nady. Otherwise Nady finds a place that will pay him roughly the same and give him a better shot to start, as opposed to attempting a rebound as Hermida's caddy when the farm also has Reddick and Kalish likely both pressing for MLB ABs by the end of the season.

I'm sure Boras has a plan for something like this, but it could be fun. It sure would help if Nady were a better hitter against lefties than against righties.

Yep, which is one reason why he's probably not a great choice anyways.

Mike Cameron (as suggested earlier) is real interesting though. He's got a .937 OPS against lefties over the last three years, not a single season below a .900 OPS, and he's an excellent defender. A four man OF rotation with Cameron, Ellsbury, Drew, and Hermida could be very effective and would generally give outstanding defense, while also providing for CF depth in case of injury.

Cameron should obviously start in CF if we did that, with Ellsbury playing LF. But Hermida can back up both the corners and depending on who needs a day off either Ellsbury or Cameron can take CF.

Having Cameron turning CF over to Ellsbury with some regularity would also possibly offset the penalties to Ellsbury's development from playing primarily LF for the season as well. And watching a gold glove claiber veteran in Cameron obviously couldn't hurt his approach any either.

If we could find a right handed hitting 5th OF candidate who has a big platoon split in favor of LHP we'd really be looking pretty with that kind of OF stable. Maybe another flier on Baldelli?

[Eric Van]

Of course, Bay was a minus-13 last year too.

Splitting the diff between UZR and FB, Bay went -14, -6 the last two years and Dye went -15, -19. One guy is below average, one guy can't play. There are numerous guys as bad as or a little worse than Bay: Abreu, Braun, Ethier, Manny, Cuddyer. The guys as bad or worse as Dye are few -- Delmon Young is similar and Dunn, Hawpe, and Jose Guillen are even further off the charts.

[Eric Van]

Thought this might be the best thread for this link:

Sox Interest in Holliday Overstated

It just struck me pretty forcefully that the Sox are pursuing Holliday exactly the way the Yankees pursued Teixeira.

They know Boras will not take him elsewhere without calling the Sox to see if they will top the current best offer. Which they will do if it's within their parameters. No need to even make an offer until then; all that does is drive up the bidding.

What's the current list of teams supposedly interested in Holliday? The Mets absolutely, but he would be an unbelievably bad fit for that park (as a bad offensive park in general but a good one for RHB homers, they'll just risk walking him rather than come after him). The Cardinals will probably be outbid significantly by the Mets. I really think the Yankees would rather wait a year for Carl Crawford. IIRC, the Angels and Mariners are both much more interested in Bay (Boras allergy and potential home-town discount, respectively). Anyone else?

[xjack]

He is. .854 OPS vs lefties, .769 vs righties. He'd be a great platoon partner for Hermida.

Nady has had two TJ surgeries, and would be playing next year less than 11 months after has last surgery. I like Nady's bat, but I'm not sure he can be counted on to play the outfield.

[EP Sox Fan]

It just struck me pretty forcefully that the Sox are pursuing Holliday exactly the way the Yankees pursued Teixeira.

They know Boras will not take him elsewhere without calling the Sox to see if they will top the current best offer. Which they will do if it's within their parameters. No need to even make an offer until then; all that does is drive up the bidding.

What's the current list of teams supposedly interested in Holliday? The Mets absolutely, but he would be an unbelievably bad fit for that park (as a bad offensive park in general but a good one for RHB homers, they'll just risk walking him rather than come after him). The Cardinals will probably be outbid significantly by the Mets. I really think the Yankees would rather wait a year for Carl Crawford. IIRC, the Angels and Mariners are both much more interested in Bay (Boras allergy and potential home-town discount, respectively). Anyone else?

I agree with this take. At this point, I am not too sure that anyone, (players, management, or agents) knows for sure what the market is given the economic downturn. With some of the signings that have occurred thus far, we can begin to see the market develop and take shape. However, Holliday is definately at the high end of that market and it should take a while to see what exactly that means in terms of price. The smart play is to lay back see what other teams offer. At this point, Holliday is the high-end performance car that people were falling over themselves to overpay for 3-5 years ago By way of example, Carlos Lee got 6yrs. and $100 million in 2007 from the Astros coming off an .895 OPS and -15.4 UZR season in 2006. Right now, Holliday would be nice to have but only if the price/commitment is right.

Here's an interesting question. Is there any way Holliday takes a reduced contract as to length with the hope that the market re-establishes itself in the interim and he's able to get the $100 million + that he thinks he's worth? Obviously the loss of draft picks makes this less palatable for the team signing him, but on the upside if he doesn't pan out (and there are at least some concerns as to this with the perpetual home/road split discussion and his relative lack of success in Oakland) that he won't be a Vernon Wells-esque type of albatross. Would he have even been better off in the long run accepting arbitration and trying to come back in a better economic market after a full season of destroying NL Central pitching?

[Yazdog8]

Nady has had two TJ surgeries, and would be playing next year less than 11 months after has last surgery. I like Nady's bat, but I'm not sure he can be counted on to play the outfield.

Full rehab from TJ surgery takes about a year in pitchers and half that in position players due to less stress on the arm. If it checks out sound by RS doctors, he'd be ready to go in Spring Training theoretically.

[Adirondack jack]

Mike Cameron (as suggested earlier) is real interesting though. He's got a .937 OPS against lefties over the last three years, not a single season below a .900 OPS, and he's an excellent defender. A four man OF rotation with Cameron, Ellsbury, Drew, and Hermida could be very effective and would generally give outstanding defense, while also providing for CF depth in case of injury.

I agree, having those four patrolling the outfield has its appeal instead of signing a defensively challenged player to a big money long-term deal. Unless the Bay market plummets,which doesn't seem that outrageous of a concept, the Cameron option has some legs, especially if a Roy Halladay or Josh Johnson can be obtained. The reported $60 offer earlier from the Sox still seems odd and is at least questionable if Bay will ever end up getting that much guaranteed.

Edited by Adirondack jack, 09 December 2009 - 06:07 PM.

[Eric Van]

At this point, Holliday is the high-end performance car that people were falling over themselves to overpay for 3-5 years ago By way of example, Carlos Lee got 6yrs. and $100 million in 2007 from the Astros coming off an .895 OPS and -15.4 UZR season in 2006. Right now, Holliday would be nice to have but only if the price/commitment is right.

The numbers really don't support this comparison (which you're not the first to make). Holliday probably projects now better than Teixeira did a year ago. Lee was widely regarded as a huge overpay and a terrible contract.

Here's an interesting question. Is there any way Holliday takes a reduced contract as to length with the hope that the market re-establishes itself in the interim and he's able to get the $100 million + that he thinks he's worth? Obviously the loss of draft picks makes this less palatable for the team signing him

Boras's M.O. to deal with a depressed market is to ask for a player opt-out after two or three years, like Drew had in L.A. and Sabathia has after 2011. Drew had a clause that forbid offering arb; I'm not sure about Sabathia.

I think the Sox actually wouldn't mind the inclusion of that clause of they could offer arb; it would mean he would be opting at at around the time he starts to decline, and at around the time you hope there's talent coming up to replace him.

[TomRicardo]

If Bradley wouldn't be a complete psycho trading Lowell for Bradley would work out well.

What I didn't think about is grabbing Beltre. If the Sox grabbbed Beltre, I would think about trading for Lowe for nothing.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If Bradley wouldn't be a complete psycho trading Lowell for Bradley would work out well.

What I didn't think about is grabbing Beltre. If the Sox grabbbed Beltre, I would think about trading for Lowe for nothing.

I'm sure the Braves would appreciate that.

Kidding aside, I really wouldn't mind Bradley being the backup plan if both Bay and Holliday end up elsewhere.

[xjack]

If Bradley wouldn't be a complete psycho trading Lowell for Bradley would work out well.

We'd need to start a pool on how long before Bradley rips CHB's head off.

[OCD SS]

We'd need to start a pool on how long before Bradley rips CHB's head off.

I think I advocated Bradley as an option for the 2006 CF job before the Coco trade with just that idea. People assume that the Boston media will cause Bradley to explode, but if he does I think there's a good chance he takes out some the annoying members of said media. And from a switch-hitter projected to hit for a ~.360 wOBA next season who would be almost completely paid for by the Cubs, hey, what's not to like. If we put him in LF Ellsbury will be able to keep him and Drew separate...

[Rudy Pemberton]

It's not just the media that Bradley has problems with; it's teammates, fans, umpires, coaches, and anyone else who gets in his way. This would be a disaster. Add in the fact that he just wasn't a very good player last year and there's no way the Sox would risk such a move, IMO.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

I think I advocated Bradley as an option for the 2006 CF job before the Coco trade with just that idea. People assume that the Boston media will cause Bradley to explode, but if he does I think there's a good chance he takes out some the annoying members of said media. And from a switch-hitter projected to hit for a ~.360 wOBA next season who would be almost completely paid for by the Cubs, hey, what's not to like. If we put him in LF Ellsbury will be able to keep him and Drew separate...

I'd be worried that Bradley would explode before the Boston media had a chance at him, specifically when he's told he's been traded to be a platoon player. I've never read anything about him to suggest that he'd be vaguely happy with that arrangement. The other flaw is that Bradley is one of a very few people on the planet who could get others to sympathize with CHB when the inevitable war breaks out.

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

Francesa says Mets will make a substantial offer today to Bay.

From MetsBlog:

David Lennon of Newsday, as well as Joel Sherman of the New York Post, also say the Mets offered contracts to both Bay and free-agent C Bengie Molina.

[SoxScout]

Joel Sherman:

According to a Mets source, the initial offer to Bay is "in the range of" one made by the Red Sox that Bay rejected. That offer reportedly was for four years, $60 million.

In general, however, an offer to Bay accentuates the Mets' growing exasperation with the surprisingly high prices for middle-tier free agents. The Mets have now begun to reason they might as well spend more to get one of the few star-level talents on the market.

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

Francesa reporting the offer from the Mets is $65M/4

[Rudy Pemberton]

Is there any sense of what Bay is looking for?

[SoxScout]

I didn't even really want to pay 4/60, but I figured once the dust settled it would still be one of the best offers. With this initial offer from the Mets, and the rumors that they may go 5-years, it's time to say goodbye to Bay.

[24JoshuaPoint]

In general, however, an offer to Bay accentuates the Mets' growing exasperation with the surprisingly high prices for middle-tier free agents.

Middle-tier? Bay was 2nd and 3rd in the AL for RBI's and Home Runs, why would he be considered a middle tier free agent? Would Ryan Howard be considered middle tier as well ye of the same standings for both metrics and a measly 10 point higher OPS last year? .931 vs. .921.

[mjswarner]

Francesa reporting the offer from the Mets is $65M/4

At #7, the Mets' draft pick would be protected. That sucks.

[SoxScout]

Middle-tier? Bay was 2nd and 3rd in the AL for RBI's and Home Runs, why would he be considered a middle tier free agent? Would Ryan Howard be considered middle tier as well ye of the same standings for both metrics and a measly 10 point higher OPS last year? .931 vs. .921.

The point is they are now going after Bay/Holliday/Lackey because the middle-tier guys are getting more money than they think they should, so they mind as well spend for top-tier, aka Bay.

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

I didn't even really want to pay 4/60, but I figured once the dust settled it would still be one of the best offers. With this initial offer from the Mets, and the rumors that they may go 5-years, it's time to say goodbye to Bay.

'FAN stressing every 20 minutes that this is an OPENING offer.

Is it time to start talking about state income taxes and costs of living yet........?

[24JoshuaPoint]

The point is they are now going after Bay/Holliday/Lackey because the middle-tier guys are getting more money than they think they should, so they mind as well spend for top-tier, aka Bay.

Thank you. I should probably try to read full sentences before talking out of my a$$.

Edited by 24JoshuaPoint, 10 December 2009 - 04:15 PM.

[Dewy4PrezII]

I can't see $5MM over 4 years being a difference maker, given the state of the two respective teams.

[pokey_reese]

At #7, the Mets' draft pick would be protected. That sucks.

Wow, I knew that they had a rough season and fell apart at the end, but I actually had to go look up the standings to realize that they finished 23 games out of first in the NL East. That really does suck though.

[TheYellowDart5]

Meanwhile, multiple sources indicated Friday that the Red Sox' offer to Bay, 31, is at four years and holding. One source said it's unlikely that Boston will give Bay a five-year offer — which is what he is seeking.

At present, the Mets' four-year offer is reportedly greater than Boston's.

Source: http://msn.foxsports...-Hot-Stove-news (scroll down a bit, to 3:40 pm).