55 replies to this topic

[SoxScout]

I'm sure his thank you note to Theo will include a list of the names needed to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. It'll include the usual studs and probably a few personal favorites.

Do you think this makes a deal more or less likely? I'm sure Hoyer won't be taking the back-end substitute names we were trying to get Towers to take.

Edited by SoxScout, 21 October 2009 - 01:47 PM.

[SaveBooFerriss]

Do you think this makes a deal more or less likely? I'm sure Hoyer won't be taking the back-end substitute names we were trying to get Towers to take.

The first issue would be does Hoyer want to trade Gonzalez. If he is so inclined, I think the Hoyer's familairity with the Sox's farm system would make a trade to the Sox more likely. It is quite common for new GM's to target guys they liked with their former team.

[Adirondack jack]

I'm sure his thank you note to Theo will include a list of the names needed to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. It'll include the usual studs and probably a few personal favorites.

Do you think this makes a deal more or less likely? I'm sure Hoyer won't be taking the back-end substitute names we were trying to get Towers to take.

Hasn't it been Moorad all along who has been against moving the young local stud?

[Remagellan]

I wonder if this means Kevin Towers comes here to replace Jed. Might be a nice place to spend a year before heading down to replace Minaya when the Wilpons finally wise up.

[smastroyin]

Maybe Jed can pull a Mangina and sell off assets to his former team in exchange for castoffs.

[dynomite]

The first issue would be does Hoyer want to trade Gonzalez. If he is so inclined, I think the Hoyer's familairity with the Sox's farm system would make a trade to the Sox more likely. It is quite common for new GM's to target guys they liked with their former team.

The Padres entire organization is a mess, top to bottom. They've got their AAA team playing in the majors, all of them learning on the fly instead of developing skills in the minors, and that's only the beginning of their problems. In 2009 BA ranked the Padres farm system 29th. 1B Kyle Blanks is their "next big thing," and they were playing him out of position this year in the outfield because Gonzalez was blocking him.

They are in desperate need of a complete restocking of the farm system and overhaul of the roster, and Gonzalez is the only blue-chipper they have left after dealing Peavy. The Red Sox have an embarrassment of farm system riches and desperately need a big masher in the middle (especially if Bay departs), and preferably one who plays a corner infield position.

A Gonzalez trade makes a ton of sense for both teams, and Hoyer's knowledge of the Sox farm system and its players should make the trade even easier to pull off -- Hoyer knows the players they'll be talking about (Bowden? Reddick?) and won't be worried he's getting fleeced.

[czar]

A Gonzalez trade makes a ton of sense for both teams, and Hoyer's knowledge of the Sox farm system and its players should make the trade even easier to pull off -- Hoyer knows the players they'll be talking about (Bowden? Reddick?) and won't be worried he's getting fleeced.

You'd also presume he knows quite intimately that the shine may very well be off Bowden, Reddick wasn't exactly spectacular above AA, and expectations for Lars might have been a bit too high last year. I think the trade value of the system as a whole took a bit of a hit in '09 if you are considering Buchholz and Bard untouchable; and Hoyer had a front-row seat.

He might be comfortable with the Sox system because of the familiarity but, assuming he and Theo value players on the farm the same, him being in SD would seem to decrease the odds of a move getting made just because both would share the opinion of who is desirable and who is not; which logically would create a roadblock.

[DieHardSoxFan1]

You'd also presume he knows quite intimately that the shine may very well be off Bowden, Reddick wasn't exactly spectacular above AA, and expectations for Lars might have been a bit too high last year. I think the trade value of the system as a whole took a bit of a hit in '09 if you are considering Buchholz and Bard untouchable; and Hoyer had a front-row seat.

Coming off his impressive finish to the '09 season, which included a huge stride in his overall development, I feel like Buchholz is pretty untouchable at this point. Combine that belief with the lack of top-flight, major-league-ready talent in this farm system, and I'd say the Sox' chances of acquiring Gonzalez are pretty slim. IMO, if they do it, it'll be a three-team deal involving Papelbon (to a 3rd party) and a boatload of young talent heading to San Diego.

[dynomite]

He might be comfortable with the Sox system because of the familiarity but, assuming he and Theo value players on the farm the same, him being in SD would seem to decrease the odds of a move getting made just because both would share the opinion of who is desirable and who is not; which logically would create a roadblock.

With a talent like Gonzalez I'm willing to bet Theo would be willing to part with some of "his" guys. The Padres system is devoid of talent at all levels -- I don't think Hoyer would be silly to accept A/AA players as part of the deal.

[David Laurila]

I think the trade value of the system as a whole took a bit of a hit in '09 if you are considering Buchholz and Bard untouchable; and Hoyer had a front-row seat.

I don't really agree with that. It's a subjective argument either way, but while Anderson and Bowden did lose a little luster, other legit prospects made notable jumps. Kelly and Westmoreland certainly did, and will presumably be targets of teams we talk trade with. Kalish, Reddick and Tazawa each improved their stock this year, as did a few others.

As for Hoyer, hopefully he gets the job, as he's deserving of the opportunity.

[BucketOBalls]

You'd also presume he knows quite intimately that the shine may very well be off Bowden, Reddick wasn't exactly spectacular above AA, and expectations for Lars might have been a bit too high last year. I think the trade value of the system as a whole took a bit of a hit in '09 if you are considering Buchholz and Bard untouchable; and Hoyer had a front-row seat.

He might be comfortable with the Sox system because of the familiarity but, assuming he and Theo value players on the farm the same, him being in SD would seem to decrease the odds of a move getting made just because both would share the opinion of who is desirable and who is not; which logically would create a roadblock.

Another fact is that it would not look good for Hoyer to move the teams marquee player to his former team unless he got a great haul back in return. I.e. Theo overpayed.

While it's true the Padre's SHOULD move Adrian, it's not clear that ownership and the organization accepts this yet. Hoyer may not want to fight that battle right at the outset.

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

As for Hoyer, hopefully he gets the job, as he's deserving of the opportunity.

Basically Josh Byrnes, the "Remarkable" Peter Woodfork, and now possibly Jed Hoyer will have departed in recent years? Am I missing anyone? That's a lot of young talent to lose. Who's next, Cherrington? Hopefully, for the sake of the organization, all of these Theo products will fare better than Beane's disciples.

Incidentally, is Kim Ng ever gonna get a shot at being a GM? It seems like she's been on everyone's shortlists for years, yet I wonder if any of the organizations have ever taken her seriously as a contender.

[czar]

I don't really agree with that. It's a subjective argument either way, but while Anderson and Bowden did lose a little luster, other legit prospects made notable jumps. Kelly and Westmoreland certainly did, and will presumably be targets of teams we talk trade with. Kalish, Reddick and Tazawa each improved their stock this year, as did a few others.

As for Hoyer, hopefully he gets the job, as he's deserving of the opportunity.

I'm not denying that the stock of a lot of low-level guys went up and I agree it's an extremely subjective argument (and this is about as far on the limb I'll go since there are many people on this board with deeper knowledge of the system than myself); but I don't think it's an unfair assessment to question whether or not the Sox have the blue-chip, major league or near-major league talent to pull off a blockbuster trade this offseason (e.g., sending people to a Hoyer-run SD for Gonzalez) without having to sacrifice a Buchholz or an Ellsbury from the major league roster.

Last offseason you might have been able to sell teams on a Bowden/Anderson/Lowrie package for a big-time player-- in fact, I'm sure there are people here that would have cried "too much!" I just don't think you can do that this year. Raw, toolsy, 19 year-olds like Westmoreland are a necessity for teams looking to develop deep farm systems; and, in a couple years, he might very well be hanging out in BA's top 10. But (anecdotally) low-level guys like that typically aren't the cornerstones of trades for in-prime, under-contract star players like Adrian Gonzalez.

The top of the farm system can't get better and better every year; and we appear to be in/headed into a bit of a lull relative to the last 4-6 years that saw Lester, Youkilis, Pedroia, Papelbon, Buchholz, Bard, Ellsbury, Masterson and many others contribute significantly at the big league level. And guys like Kalish, Reddick, and Tazawa are great guys for us to have working their way through the system, but it doesn't feel they are getting the hype that the aforementioned farmhands got coming up through the upper levels. Whether that is justified or not, the hype is probably a reasonable indicator of their value to another team; particularly if one has to sell their fanbase on shipping out a marquee name.

Another fact is that it would not look good for Hoyer to move the teams marquee player to his former team unless he got a great haul back in return. I.e. Theo overpayed.

While it's true the Padre's SHOULD move Adrian, it's not clear that ownership and the organization accepts this yet. Hoyer may not want to fight that battle right at the outset.

Regardless of whether or not it *looks* good; I'm working on the assumption that Hoyer's definition of "overpay" is likely similar to Theo's. If Hoyer is really searching for an overpay (or even the best value) for Gonzalez, it's extremely unlikely to come from our FO due to the philosophical similarities unless the Sox are overvaluing Adrian Gonzalez relative to the rest of baseball.

Edited by czar, 21 October 2009 - 05:03 PM.

[David Laurila]

I'm not denying that the stock of a lot of low-level guys went up and I agree it's an extremely subjective argument ..Raw, toolsy, 19 year-olds like Westmoreland are a necessity for teams looking to develop deep farm systems; and, in a couple years, he might very well be hanging out in BA's top 10. But (anecdotally) low-level guys like that typically aren't the cornerstones of trades for in-prime, under-contract star players like Adrian Gonzalez.

I agree with much of what you said, but no so much what I copied above.

I don't consider the Westmoreland/Kelly/Reddick/Kalish/Tazawa group "low-level," as there is a decent chance they will be rated as our top prospects going into next season, in just that order.

Also, while it is an imperfect comp, the package Cleveland received for Bartolo Colon does have similarities. At the time of that trade, Cliff Lee was 21 in AA, Brandon Phillips was 20 in AA, and Grady Sizemore was 19 in high-A.

[Eric Van]

Given the insane depth of the Sox system from prospects 20 to 65, you would guess that any deal would include two or three low-minor C-prospect lottery tickets, guys Jed has taken a liking too, perhaps more of a liking than Theo. A deal involving two name prospects and three "who's he?" types would probably work for both parties.

[someoneanywhere]

A couple of things to piggyback on David and EV. First, the low minors are indeed well stocked: not just with potential talent, but potential impact talent. Some of the guys coming through Greenville in the last few years -- I'm a season ticket holder, so I see all of them a lot -- are raw, but potentially explosive. And most importantly, some of those guys have shown the ability to learn and adjust. If you'd have seen Middlebrooks or Hissey this year, or Rizzo or Kalish last, you'd have seen two very different types of player between April and August. The reason the buzz is there on many of them is just that: the ability to translate their tools, to figure things out. Once you get past the tools, that's what makes for a ballplayer. (And on the other side of the coin, that's why no one ever talks about Jason Place. Potential impact bat and defense, yet struggling to adjust with a history of struggling to adjust.)

I would guess that a few of these types would be very appealing to the Padres. Hoyer is going to a situation where he'll be charged with developing an organization from the bottom up. He won't have Theo's burden of winning now and later. He needs inventory. And the Sox have it.

Lastly, there's a point upthread arguing that a roadblock exists because both Theo and Hoyer know who's desirable and who's not. While I think that's always a consideration, I don't think it accurately reflects the art of a deal. You want to give talent for talent. These guys aren't used-car dealers. Once you get a reputation for dealing lemons, people stop dealing with you. (See Braves, Atlanta.) Take the Sox and the Tribe. Both of those FOs are familiar with one another and have a great deal of respect for one another. Both evaluate players similarly. And consequently they are comfortable dealing with one another. All of those Tribe fans who are upset with the low minor prospects bagged for Victor Martinez are going to be calling Shapiro a genius in three years, especially if Hagadone stays healthy.

I would expect a similar package would be on the table for Gonzalez. And both sides will get value out of it.

[dynomite]

While it's true the Padre's SHOULD move Adrian, it's not clear that ownership and the organization accepts this yet. Hoyer may not want to fight that battle right at the outset.

Well, it's not exactly clear what the organization thinks at the moment. Time and again they've argued that they're not rebuilding, that they're close to competing for the NL West title, that they're not rebuilding, etc. ("Hey, we went 17-9 in September!") From the Padres mlb.com beat writer:

The outgoing general manager (Kevin Towers) and several players said at the end of the season that they believed this team wasn't far off from being one that could contend in the National League West.

But then they go and trade Jake Peavy (twice!) for prospects.

So actions might speak louder than words on that front.

Lastly, there's a point upthread arguing that a roadblock exists because both Theo and Hoyer know who's desirable and who's not. While I think that's always a consideration, I don't think it accurately reflects the art of a deal. You want to give talent for talent.

I really agree with this. If Hoyer does 1) get the job and 2) deal Gonzalez, he'll want to ensure that he's getting equal return and feel confident that he's trading for known quantities. What better way to do so than poaching from the farm system he's intimately familiar with?

[czar]

I don't consider the Westmoreland/Kelly/Reddick/Kalish/Tazawa group "low-level," as there is a decent chance they will be rated as our top prospects going into next season, in just that order.

Low-level is just a term I'm using for "sub-AA." I think it's fair to say the consensus top 3 in the Sox org are Kelly, Westmoreland, Kalish in that order or something similar.

I would expect a similar package would be on the table for Gonzalez. And both sides will get value out of it.

You think the Martinez trade is a good comp for a Gonzalez offer?

The Sox can have all the young, high-upside players in class A they want; it's not an indictment of the system, either. (And I don't think any thoughts in this thread reflect poorly on the farm system) That doesn't change the fact that aside from the occasional outlier; blockbuster trades for marquee players almost never involve only guys who are still years away from even broaching the major leagues, let alone making an impact.

Lastly, there's a point upthread arguing that a roadblock exists because both Theo and Hoyer know who's desirable and who's not. While I think that's always a consideration, I don't think it accurately reflects the art of a deal. You want to give talent for talent.

See, I don't think this is true. They certainly aren't trying to sell lemons; but I don't think Theo is doing his job if he's not trying to maximize the return in every possible transaction; financially or talent-wise. In this era of the information, the burden of scouting shifts to the team acquiring the player. If Theo says "Craig Hansen's awesome, trust us," teams will just figure out he's crazy-- not make that move and suddenly hate (and refuse to deal with) the Sox three years later for misrepresenting him.

Edited by czar, 22 October 2009 - 09:13 AM.

[Al Zarilla]

The Sox can have all the young, high-upside players in class A they want; it's not an indictment of the system, either. (And I don't think any thoughts in this thread reflect poorly on the farm system) That doesn't change the fact that aside from the occasional outlier; blockbuster trades for marquee players almost never involve only guys who are still years away from even broaching the major leagues, let alone making an impact.

There was the CC Sabathia for Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson and Zach Jackson trade last year. Granted, LaPorta was highly touted, but still playing in AA ball, and you never know about any prospect; Jackson was in AAA but never did much in the minors; Rob Bryson was in low A ball. CC Sabathia for not a big haul I'd say there, and only the Yankees are happy today.

[czar]

There was the CC Sabathia for Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson and Zach Jackson trade last year. Granted, LaPorta was highly touted, but still playing in AA ball, and you never know about any prospect; Jackson was in AAA but never did much in the minors; Rob Bryson was in low A ball. CC Sabathia for not a big haul I'd say there, and only the Yankees are happy today.

This is actually a good comp for me. LaPorta was widely recognized as one of the top 15 prospects in baseball. He was 23 and broached the major leagues within the next year. He's the textbook definition of a "near major-league ready marquee prospect."

Not to mention the Sabathia trade was a mid-season acquisition for an impending FA. That package MLW gave up was for 0.5 seasons of him, wheras any team trading for Adrian Gonzalez would get 2 seasons of a cost-controlled all-star, plus (likely) first crack at re-signing him. Again, not apples to apples.

[Al Zarilla]

This is actually a good comp for me. LaPorta was widely recognized as one of the top 15 prospects in baseball. He was 23 and broached the major leagues within the next year. He's the textbook definition of a "near major-league ready marquee prospect."

Not to mention the Sabathia trade was a mid-season acquisition for an impending FA. That package MLW gave up was for 0.5 seasons of him, wheras any team trading for Adrian Gonzalez would get 2 seasons of a cost-controlled all-star, plus (likely) first crack at re-signing him. Again, not apples to apples.

Good point about CC going to the Brewers for 1/2 a year. Maybe I'm naive in thinking if he's in the house, they'd have a chance at re-signing him. Nah, not naive but dumb, because no way the Brewers were competing with the Yankees, or the Dodgers.

As pointed out before, Gonzalez is THE only Padre fans go out to see anymore, Hispanic, hell, even Mexican American guy born in San Diego. The Hispanic population in CA is increasing continuously and San Diego is right there. Interesting to see whether they see him as untouchable this winter.

[twothousandone]

As pointed out before, Gonzalez is THE only Padre fans go out to see anymore. . . The Hispanic population in CA is increasing continuously

I'm sure someone here can find a way to get data, but I think winning teams attract fans, even if the team and fans are of different racial, economic, regional backgrounds (please pick whatever the appropriate non-offensive word is.) Does Ray Allen's career at UConn explain the Celtics attendance? The question may come down to "what about non-winning teams, or teams that close buy not very close?" Would the Padres with 20 players from Latin America, including Gonzalez and maybe two other Mexican-Americans be able to attract fans if they play above .500 ball? What of they only had five from Latin America (which might be quite an anomaly?

not apples to apples

But what is? Cliff Lee? I think it takes more, since Gonzalez has a lower salary (it'll go up with arb) and three years before he's a FA. Clearly the Sox are in a position to sign a longish deal that take FA out of play. Peavy cost the White Sox a lot (4 young pitchers), and it might take even more than that for Boston to get Gonzalez. Bard, Bowden, Anderson and two of the top guys in the lower minors? I'm not sure SD does that, and someone else out there might be able to beat it in SD's mind. And it may not be smart for Boston, unless they are confident Youkilis will be solid defensively at 3B, and it won't affect his abilities at the plate.

[czar]

But what is? Cliff Lee? I think it takes more, since Gonzalez has a lower salary (it'll go up with arb) and three years before he's a FA. Clearly the Sox are in a position to sign a longish deal that take FA out of play. Peavy cost the White Sox a lot (4 young pitchers), and it might take even more than that for Boston to get Gonzalez. Bard, Bowden, Anderson and two of the top guys in the lower minors? I'm not sure SD does that, and someone else out there might be able to beat it in SD's mind. And it may not be smart for Boston, unless they are confident Youkilis will be solid defensively at 3B, and it won't affect his abilities at the plate.

Miguel Cabrera is the best recent comp I can think of. Offseason trade of an under-30, perennial all-star who was still arb eligible for 1-2 years following the deal.

December 4, 2007: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo.

[Grin&MartyBarret]

This is actually a good comp for me. LaPorta was widely recognized as one of the top 15 prospects in baseball. He was 23 and broached the major leagues within the next year. He's the textbook definition of a "near major-league ready marquee prospect."

Not to mention the Sabathia trade was a mid-season acquisition for an impending FA. That package MLW gave up was for 0.5 seasons of him, wheras any team trading for Adrian Gonzalez would get 2 seasons of a cost-controlled all-star, plus (likely) first crack at re-signing him. Again, not apples to apples.

To some extent though, the Brewers alleviated a logjam by trading LaPorta. That's not to say that LaPorta wasn't valuable, but he may have been less valuable in Milwaukee because of Fielder and Gamel. By all accounts, LaPorta is a pretty terrible fielder; I'm not sure the Brewers would have been able to field a lineup with Fielder, LaPorta, and Gamels without being awful defensively.

I think a better comp is Teixeira to Atlanta. I think Atlanta felt like they had a legitimate shot at resigning him because he was a Georgia Tech product. That deal was Salty, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones, which is a serious haul.

edit: typo

Edited by Grin&MartyBarret, 22 October 2009 - 12:12 PM.

[Paradigm]

Miguel Cabrera is the best recent comp I can think of. Offseason trade of an under-30, perennial all-star who was still arb eligible for 1-2 years following the deal.

There's rarely an analogue with baseball trades. The Marlins averaged 17,000 fans a game that season (about 17,500 fewer than the Padres) and traded Cabrera because they hate the idea of paying players their market value. Cabrera's salary jumped to $11.3 million in 2008. Gonzalez will be paid $4.75 million in 2010 and $5.5 million in 2011. The Padres were 29th in spending this year (the Marlins 30th, not surprisingly) but even still, they have no financial reason to trade Gonzalez.

[Al Zarilla]

I have watched Gonzalez hit several home runs to left field at Petco Park and AT&T Park. Perfect opposite field swing. In fact, he hit more HRs to left than to right last year. Git'r'done, Theo, and I won't say without gutting the farm, because Theo is too smart for that.

[someoneanywhere]

You think the Martinez trade is a good comp for a Gonzalez offer?

The Sox can have all the young, high-upside players in class A they want; it's not an indictment of the system, either. (And I don't think any thoughts in this thread reflect poorly on the farm system) That doesn't change the fact that aside from the occasional outlier; blockbuster trades for marquee players almost never involve only guys who are still years away from even broaching the major leagues, let alone making an impact.

Yes, I do. I didn't say a deal would include only low minor leaguers; I said a VMart-type deal is a good model. Gonzalez might cost a little more because he is younger and cost-controlled, but the pieces would be similar. Your point about blockbuster trades does not take into account the value that these new FO operations teams place on young, developable talent. Go back and read what Shapiro said when he was asked to defend the Martinez deal. He made it plain in those interviews: the traditional blockbuster deals that include high prospects, "major league ready" guys at AA and AAA, almost never work out for the acquiring team. (That would be your Hansen example, incidentally.) The Sox would have to give up young major-league talent in a Gonzalez deal, but the value that Hoyer would see for the future is right now at AA and below.

See, I don't think this is true. They certainly aren't trying to sell lemons; but I don't think Theo is doing his job if he's not trying to maximize the return in every possible transaction; financially or talent-wise. In this era of the information, the burden of scouting shifts to the team acquiring the player. If Theo says "Craig Hansen's awesome, trust us," teams will just figure out he's crazy-- not make that move and suddenly hate (and refuse to deal with) the Sox three years later for misrepresenting him.

Of course he's trying to maximize value: but so, again, is a used-car dealer. You're telling me that if I'm buying -- and the deal could potentially be worth a few million dollars now or in the future -- I should only evaluate the product, and not who "made" it or is selling it?

[Eric Van]

Three points:

First, Kyle Blanks is such a good prospect (statistically as well as according to scouts) that I think trading Gonzalez is the world's biggest no-brainer. It's not a hell of a lot unlike the Thome / Ryan Howard situation.

Second, the Orioles have no 1B and their best 1B prospect, Brandon Snyder, is not ready for MLB and not nearly good enough to worry about blocking. And there is no one we could make the key piece of a trade who would be nearly as desirable to the Padres as Felix Pie. With their depth of young SP, I think that if they want to the O's can put together a deal we'd have trouble matching. And if Jed does get the job, it would certainly be less complicated and open to first-guessing to trade Adrian Gonzalez to a team other than his old one.

A lineup with Adrian Gonzalez, Jones, Markakis, Wieters, Reimold, and Roberts, and all those young pitchers -- the O's would be putting themselves into position to be the Rays of 2011. And if the pitching doesn't come together to the point where they look like they'll contend soon, they can deal Adrian Gonzalez at the deadline in 2011, probably without losing value in the long term.

The two other teams that could be in the Adrian Gonzalez hunt in a big way (this is a preview of the 1B market report which is almost ready to roll) are the Braves and the Indians, neither of whom has a 1B (Andy Marte only has value as a 3B) and both of whom have deep farm systems, although the Indians appear to be in a rebuilding mode.

Third, the clear alternative to cashing in the farm chips now for Adrian Gonzalez is to wait a year (when the total value of the system should be greater) and go after Prince Fielder as a Papi replacement. In the meantime, you can sign Adrian Beltre and have a terrific infield defense, a heck of a lot better (at least 13 runs) than with Youk at 3B and Adrian Gonzalez at 1B. On offense, Fielder + Beltre is nearly as good as Adrian Gonzalez + Adam Dunn and has better L/R balance. Of course, the catch is that Adrian Gonzalez will definitely be on the market now and there's no guarantee that Fielder will be a year from now.

Edited by Eric Van, 23 October 2009 - 08:33 AM.

[czar]

Yes, I do. I didn't say a deal would include only low minor leaguers; I said a VMart-type deal is a good model. Gonzalez might cost a little more because he is younger and cost-controlled, but the pieces would be similar. Your point about blockbuster trades does not take into account the value that these new FO operations teams place on young, developable talent. Go back and read what Shapiro said when he was asked to defend the Martinez deal. He made it plain in those interviews: the traditional blockbuster deals that include high prospects, "major league ready" guys at AA and AAA, almost never work out for the acquiring team. (That would be your Hansen example, incidentally.) The Sox would have to give up young major-league talent in a Gonzalez deal, but the value that Hoyer would see for the future is right now at AA and below.

Victor Martinez was traded for a back-of-the-rotation starter (best case), a heralded prospect coming off TJ surgery, and a guy who had dropped like a stone in even the biggest fanboy's prospect rankings. Gonzalez will not cost "a little more" and the pieces will not "be similar."

I'd like to see a link to that Shapiro quote because I think it's being taken out of context. I have no doubts that Shapiro would have taken Buchholz straight up rather than Masterson/Hagadone/Price if it was on the table.

Of course he's trying to maximize value: but so, again, is a used-car dealer. You're telling me that if I'm buying -- and the deal could potentially be worth a few million dollars now or in the future -- I should only evaluate the product, and not who "made" it or is selling it?

This is still a poor analogy. If you are buying from a used-car dealer, you are relying the on the individual to give you a solid rundown of the car because in all likelihood, you or anyone else you know has never seen it. You're fooling yourself if you think GM's spend millions of dollars per year on scouting and then merely accept "oh, don't worry, I know he looks like he's throwing 85, but a tuneup can fix that easy!"

[tims4wins]

The Sox have made an offer to Ricciardi?

Dear god please don't let him accept

[IpswichSox]

The Sox have made an offer to Ricciardi?

Dear god please don't let him accept

That would make Nick Cafardo happy. Probably no one else though.

[bosockboy]

The Sox have made an offer to Ricciardi?

Dear god please don't let him accept

"Former Padres General Manager Allard Baird." What an atrocity ESPN is.

[BoSoxLady]

Per Peter Gammons via Twitter:

The Red Sox baseball ops folks held their farewell lunch for Jed Hoyer Friday as he heads off to San Diego

[Snodgrass'Muff]

MLB Network just announced that Hoyer has officially been hired by San Diego.

Edit: Some links...
http://www.cbssports...270335/17850190
http://sportsillustr...oyer/index.html

Not finding anything about it already being announced as MLBN claimed.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 23 October 2009 - 06:59 PM.

[jacklamabe65]

Gammo just stated that Towers and Riccardi have ben offered consultants jobs with the Sox.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Second, the Orioles have no 1B and their best 1B prospect, Brandon Snyder, is not ready for MLB and not nearly good enough to worry about blocking. And there is no one we could make the key piece of a trade who would be nearly as desirable to the Padres as Felix Pie. With their depth of young SP, I think that if they want to the O's can put together a deal we'd have trouble matching.

The Os aren't going to trade for Gonzalez for two reasons. First, they are trying to build the team first and foremost around pitching (reasoning, much like Theo, that you can always find decent bats pretty cheaply). Second, they have Josh Bell who is a legitimate power prospect but a lot less legitimate 3B prospect.

But most importantly, Angelos is cheap and he'd much rather have 4 or 5 or 6 years of a cost-controlled pitcher than 2 years of any stud.

[Eric Van]

The Os aren't going to trade for Gonzalez for two reasons. First, they are trying to build the team first and foremost around pitching (reasoning, much like Theo, that you can always find decent bats pretty cheaply).

I think that Pie is such a valuable chip that they wouldn't have to add much pitching to that deal. You're dealing 2 years of a 60 RARP guy for 4 years of a 30 RARP guy if his first half / second half splits (actually before and after June 24) were a mirage, and 40+ if they were for real. And a lot of scouts did see a different hitter, which is to say the maturation of the great prospect that people thought the Cubs had. Any pitching in that deal is just insurance against the second-half Pie not being for real.

Second, they have Josh Bell who is a legitimate power prospect but a lot less legitimate 3B prospect.

You're a year or two out of date with that one. He lost more weight, and SL managers actually voted Bell the league's best defensive 3B. BP had him at +3 in the SL, -3 for the season. Incomplete TotalZone has him at -1 in the SL (so, yeah, the best glove vote was probably more of a reflection of his performance relative to expectations). His Total Zone per 150 for the previous two years: -41, -10.

But most importantly, Angelos is cheap and he'd much rather have 4 or 5 or 6 years of a cost-controlled pitcher than 2 years of any stud.

I would have thought that, too, but they reportedly wanted Teixeira big-time. I think they're tired of losing.

[OCD SS]

I would have thought that, too, but they reportedly wanted Teixeira big-time. I think they're tired of losing.

Wanted, but did not even make an offer. IIRC the Angels bowed out, and other than the Sox's offer, the only other actually on the table was from the Nats. Angelos was willing to spend on Teixeira, but expected a discount so he could play in his hometown.

Second, the Orioles have no 1B and their best 1B prospect, Brandon Snyder, is not ready for MLB and not nearly good enough to worry about blocking. And there is no one we could make the key piece of a trade who would be nearly as desirable to the Padres as Felix Pie. With their depth of young SP, I think that if they want to the O's can put together a deal we'd have trouble matching. And if Jed does get the job, it would certainly be less complicated and open to first-guessing to trade Adrian Gonzalez to a team other than his old one.

A lineup with Adrian Gonzalez, Jones, Markakis, Wieters, Reimold, and Roberts, and all those young pitchers -- the O's would be putting themselves into position to be the Rays of 2011. And if the pitching doesn't come together to the point where they look like they'll contend soon, they can deal Adrian Gonzalez at the deadline in 2011, probably without losing value in the long term.

I think we need to actually do the math on where the young pitchers are going. Does Baltimore really have enough pitching in the minors that they can use it to outbid the Sox for Adrian Gonzalez, and then also have enough left over to fill in their rotation? My impression was that a fair number of their SPs projected more as #3s rather than as front of the rotation guys, and it seems that everything would need to break just right for things to work out this well for Baltimore (or any of the pitchers they might lose to basic attrition would have to all be the ones going to SD in the trade).

[PedroKsBambino]

Wanted, but did not even make an offer. IIRC the Angels bowed out, and other than the Sox's offer, the only other actually on the table was from the Nats. Angelos was willing to spend on Teixeira, but expected a discount so he could play in his hometown

What you actaully mean here is 'I read Buster Olney's (or Edes, or whoever's) unsourced speculation on who was in the market at a point in time' because, in fact, that's all you know, right? I think it's important to recognize the difference between that and what you said above.

I think we also have pretty good reason to believe the Yankees were involved the entire time as well.

[LondonSox]

The Sox have made an offer to Ricciardi?

Dear god please don't let him accept

Ricciardi made his rep as a talent evaluator, he just wasn't great as a GM. I'm a huge fan of having people with high level experience doing a simpler job that suits their actual talents, rather than givign them control over things they can do but also stuff they can't.
We'll see but he and Towers would make 3 ex GM's on staff as advisors, be interesting to see.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

{snip}

First, I don't think I'm out of date as Bell reportedly committed 24 errors in 127 games this season, including seven after joining the Baysox. Also, whatever ability he has to play 3B will depend heavily on his weight. I know the Os are talking about him at 3B, but I don't think anyone is saying he's a lock at the position.

As for Teixeira, he's a bad example because of course the Os wanted him, but they were apparently told in no uncertain terms that he wasn't going there. I mean they could have tried 10$/250 or something like that, but after their first offer (7/$140), they were so out of it they were told not to make a second offer.

The Os may be sick of losing but as long as they play in the AL East and the Red Sox/MFYs keep their management/spending, I think that their best hope is to have a 2-3 year window of contention every 10 years or so. Sad but true.

[Eric Van]

I think we need to actually do the math on where the young pitchers are going. Does Baltimore really have enough pitching in the minors that they can use it to outbid the Sox for Adrian Gonzalez, and then also have enough left over to fill in their rotation? My impression was that a fair number of their SPs projected more as #3s rather than as front of the rotation guys, and it seems that everything would need to break just right for things to work out this well for Baltimore (or any of the pitchers they might lose to basic attrition would have to all be the ones going to SD in the trade).

Well, right now they have Guthrie (for 3 more years), Uehara (for 1 or 5 -- Cott's is unclear whether his release is required after 2 years), Bergesen (#18 prospect starting the year), Hernandez (16), Berken (17), Tillman (2), and Matusz (3). They have Arrieta (4) at AAA and Brandon Erbe (6), Troy Patton (8) and Steve Johnson (Dodgers 15 from the Sherrill trade) at AA, and Zach Britton (12) at high-A. All of those guys had good years (11 Chorye Spoone, 15 Bobby Bundy, and 21 Pedro Beato didn't; and Radhames Liz continues to get nothing out of his arm). I think they have enough to trade somebody.

Edit 1: And it will be very easy to focus the talks on the guys who are FB pitchers and/or have trouble with the HR, since they would gain a lot of value moving to SD.

Edit 2: if you read the 1B Market report you can see that the Indians, White Sox, Mariners, Braves, and Mets (if they can scrounge up enough talent to deal) should be in on this, too. I may look at what they've got to offer next (although off the top of my head I know the Indians have three catchers in Shoppach, Marson, and Santana, and a SS to deal in Peralta, whose move to 3B didn't work out at all).

Edited by Eric Van, 24 October 2009 - 06:27 PM.

[OCD SS]

What you actaully mean here is 'I read Buster Olney's (or Edes, or whoever's) unsourced speculation on who was in the market at a point in time' because, in fact, that's all you know, right? I think it's important to recognize the difference between that and what you said above.

True, but the great thing about teams being fairly annoyed with Boras and with Boras more throwing out anything close to an offer so it could be bid against was that I think we got a pretty good idea of what the market was, especially after the fact with the Yankees added in. AFAIK there were no reports of the O's bieng in on the bidding, especially for an amount over the what the Sox had offered.

That at least seems to offer enough to at least question whether or not their involvement in the Teixeira bidding is indicative of them "being sick of losing" and whether that feeling will dictate their offseason plan.

[cannonball 1729]

Just as a point of order, Andy McPhail actually talked the O's involvement in the Teixeira bidding at Oriole Fan Fest this year. I reported back to SoSH about this in April:

Someone at Fan Fest asked about Mark Teixeira. McPhail said that they'd offered him a 7 year, $140 million contract, to which he said essentially thanks but no thanks. For the next couple months, McPhail would periodically call up Scott Boras and say, "Hey, how about Teixeira?" and Boras would answer, "Hey, any interest in Pudge Rodriguez?" Basically, they were never led to believe that Tex was all that interested.

[OCD SS]

Well, right now they have Guthrie (for 3 more years), Uehara (for 1 or 5 -- Cott's is unclear whether his release is required after 2 years), Bergesen (#18 prospect starting the year), Hernandez (16), Berken (17), Tillman (2), and Matusz (3). They have Arrieta (4) at AAA and Brandon Erbe (6), Troy Patton (8) and Steve Johnson (Dodgers 15 from the Sherrill trade) at AA, and Zach Britton (12) at high-A. All of those guys had good years (11 Chorye Spoone, 15 Bobby Bundy, and 21 Pedro Beato didn't; and Radhames Liz continues to get nothing out of his arm). I think they have enough to trade somebody.

Eric, my only contention is that the O's have enough pitching to out bid the Sox for Adrian Gonzalez, while at the same time retaining enough to make a Tampa Bay like run in '11. It really depends on who each team is making "untouchable," but it seems to me that to do that the O's would have to part with their most promising young arms (Matuz and Tillman) + more of the guys you list, and when added to the likely attrition of young arms I'm not sure there's a lot of rotational depth for 2011.

Who do you think the O's would put in a package that the Sox would or could not top?

Edit 2: if you read the 1B Market report you can see that the Indians, White Sox, Mariners, Braves, and Mets (if they can scrounge up enough talent to deal) should be in on this, too. I may look at what they've got to offer next (although off the top of my head I know the Indians have three catchers in Shoppach, Marson, and Santana, and a SS to deal in Peralta, whose move to 3B didn't work out at all).

No, I read it, but it did not seem particularly relevant to the point I was making. However since we're talking about talent in trade and not the FA market, what do you think each team has to offer in a deal?

Indians: They seem to be in rebuilding mode, and are aiming at players with more control than Adrian Gonzalez, who would only be under control for one year before he would leave to FA. It wouldn't make sense for them to pay for a year that they won't use him, and they have been good about getting players with a full 6 yrs of control back in the deals they've made. I doubt they'd deal Santana, and I'm not sure in what world Peralta is an asset in a trade.

White Sox: It seems like they kind of shot their wad on the Peavy acquisition.

Mariners: Their farm system ranks as the worst of all you've listed (at least from the last BA handbook). Probably the only way they can pull the talent together to get in on a deal is to trade King Felix.

Braves: I think a lot of the value in their system is top heavy; they made a lot of players untouchable last year, and I'm sure that Hanson and Heyward are still off the table.

Mets: I really don't see think they have the talent to be players in this market.

[Eric Van]

Who do you think the O's would put in a package that the Sox would or could not top?

I've already said that there's no one we would be willing to offer who would be as attractive as Felix Pie, and that an Adrian Gonzalez trade wouldn't take elite pitching prospects in addition to him.

This is a former top 30 prospect in all of MLB, so the tools have always been there. He's been a +8 (UZR) or +6 (FB) CF.

On June 23 he was hitting .202 / .279 / .319 in 106 PA. He started showing some life and hit .302 / .333 / .372 through August 12, which earned him his first start in consecutive games since May. He hit for the cycle that night, and went on to hit .304 / .362 / .557 in his last 130 PA, and that was .337 / .402 / .562 as a starter when he had started the previous game, and .192 / .214 / .538 otherwise. If you want to go back to June 24, it was .304 / .354 / .506 in 175 PA. Small sample sizes, but people watching him thought he looked like the guy the Cubs were drooling over. He showed patience and pop.

If I'm Jed, I'm looking first for a cost-controlled young potential star player who fills a need NOW rather than a prospect. Pie may be the one guy in baseball who best fits that description and has no place to play for his current team.

Oh, and thanks for looking into what other teams have to offer. Re the Indians, that's such a weak division that I'm not sure any club is ever rebuilding. Lee was a FA, Martinez was expendable because of Santana and the centerpiece of that trade was not a prospect but a guy ready to fill a rotation slot now. They could absolutely contend in 2011 if not next year, and Adrian Gonzalez has an option for 2011.

Edited by Eric Van, 25 October 2009 - 10:40 AM.

[PedroKsBambino]

True, but the great thing about teams being fairly annoyed with Boras and with Boras more throwing out anything close to an offer so it could be bid against was that I think we got a pretty good idea of what the market was, especially after the fact with the Yankees added in. AFAIK there were no reports of the O's bieng in on the bidding, especially for an amount over the what the Sox had offered.

That at least seems to offer enough to at least question whether or not their involvement in the Teixeira bidding is indicative of them "being sick of losing" and whether that feeling will dictate their offseason plan.

No, on the contrary, the subsequently proven fact that the Yankees were always in the market but not generally reported as such proves the total folly of pretending we know what is going on at any point in time, seems to me, and the second-level ridiculousness of trying to draw a conclusion from that. I also seem to recall numerous reports the O's were interested and exploring a deal, so I question your premise as well as your conclusion on them in particular.

So far as I am aware, in fact, there is absolutely no reasonable basis for saying that the Orioles won't spend money. There has also, to my memory, never been a question about Angelos being cheap...he's far more Dan Snyder than Carl Pohlad. He may be an impulsive idiot, but I don't think he's ever been viewed as being cheap.

[jon abbey]

If I'm Jed, I'm looking first for a cost-controlled young potential star player who fills a need NOW rather than a prospect. Pie may be the one guy in baseball who best fits that description and has no place to play for his current team.

I argued a bit in the Yankee section a month or two ago that because of Pie's seeming emergence, Baltimore should consider moving Adam Jones, who would have even more trade value than Pie, and just keeping Pie (I stole this idea from an Orioles fan friend of mine). The one thing you don't note about Pie is that he was still basically a platoon player, he sat against many lefties, and the ones he did see he didn't do well against (.789 OPS for the season against RHP, .623 OPS in 45 PAs against LHP). Anyway, if you put Jones into your deal instead of Pie, I think it makes more sense for SD.

[joyofsox]

Gammo just stated that Towers and Riccardi have ben offered consultants jobs with the Sox.

Cafardo follows that up today by saying both men have "standing offers" from the Sox.