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ALCS Game 4: CC Sabathia vs. Scott Kazmir


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#1 jon abbey


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 12:55 AM

Wingack had a nice run, but now it's time for the big boys to step in, me and CC.

Girardi has once again chosen to manage for the short term, going with CC on three days rest and likely helping his chance to win game 4 while weakening his chance in games 5 and 6. I expect 100 or so strong pitches from him, my worry is how he'll rebound for any subsequent starts. But moot point now, Girardi has made his decision.

Kazmir started three times against NY this year, two for TB and one for LAA (on 9/23). He pitched well in all three games, so he's due for a clunker [/wishful thinking]. His last start was in the clincher at Fenway on 10/11 (8 days of rest), Boston scored 5 runs early but couldn't knock him out and he ended up going six innings. Tex, Posada and Melky have good numbers against him; the other six guys he's abused (.442 OPS for Jeter, .425 for A-Rod, .308 for Cano, all six under .600, insane numbers).

http://www.baseball-...d...&as=pitcher

This is why they got CC, for games like this.



#2 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 01:47 AM

FTR, CC on 3 days rest in the regular season:

3-1, 4 G, 26.2 IP, 16 H, 6 BB, 26 K. In other words, pretty damn good.

#3 aichtal

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 02:16 AM

QUOTE (CaptainLaddie @ Oct 20 2009, 02:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
FTR, CC on 3 days rest in the regular season:

3-1, 4 G, 26.2 IP, 16 H, 6 BB, 26 K. In other words, pretty damn good.

I expect a strong performance from CC. The problem is he may have to be superman to overcome Girardi's overuse (and misuse) of the bullpen and the team's sudden lack of situational hitting. Not to mention the total lack of hitting from some key guys. I'm looking at YOU Tex and Swisher.

And why are the Yanks carrying 3 catchers again? I know it worked out once in the Twins series, but Cervelli serves no purpose. A real bench bat, even in the person of Hinske, would have been helpful in yesterday's game.

#4 SemperFidelisSox


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 02:40 AM

Despite all the pitching changes by Girardi in Game 3, the Yankees bullpen is actually in better shape than Anaheims going into Game 4. And that's a huge advantage for New York because Kazmir is a 6 inning pitcher these days, while CC even on 3 days rest is still more likely to give you 7-8 innings. Darren Oliver threw 28 pitches yesterday, while Jespen threw 31. Who's first out of the Angels bullpen now if Kazmir struggles? Ervin Santana again? Bulger?

Joba only threw 10 pitches yesterday, Coke just 3, Robertson 11.

#5 jon abbey


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 02:43 AM

QUOTE (CaptainLaddie @ Oct 20 2009, 02:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
FTR, CC on 3 days rest in the regular season:

3-1, 4 G, 26.2 IP, 16 H, 6 BB, 26 K. In other words, pretty damn good.


Right, but those were regular season NL games. He then started against the Phillies in the NLDS on 3 days rest again, and got shelled.

#6 E5 Yaz


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 02:53 AM

QUOTE (SemperFidelisSox @ Oct 20 2009, 08:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Despite all the pitching changes by Girardi in Game 3, the Yankees bullpen is actually in better shape than Anaheims going into Game 4. And that's a huge advantage for New York because Kazmir is a 6 inning pitcher these days, while CC even on 3 days rest is still more likely to give you 7-8 innings. Darren Oliver threw 28 pitches yesterday, while Jespen threw 31. Who's first out of the Angels bullpen now if Kazmir struggles? Ervin Santana again? Bulger?

Joba only threw 10 pitches yesterday, Coke just 3, Robertson 11.


Another reason to believe that all the signs are pointing in NY's direction in Game 4. It would be a stunning, crushing demoralizing event for the Yankees should the Angels win.

#7 Spacemans Bong


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 03:20 AM

QUOTE (jon abbey @ Oct 20 2009, 08:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Right, but those were regular season NL games. He then started against the Phillies in the NLDS on 3 days rest again, and got shelled.

Well he threw a complete game four hitter against a Cubs team which had Ramirez, Lee and Soriano in the lineup. I'd say that was pretty good. You can't just ignore three good pieces of data for one bad one. He'll be fine.

#8 jon abbey


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 03:31 AM

We'll see. Since 1999, teams starting a pitcher on 3 days rest in the postseason against a pitcher on full rest are 7-27. The last guy who won was Roy Oswalt in 2004, 0-7 since then. (this factoid courtesy of Monday's NY Post).

#9 rembrat


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 04:19 AM

Sign me up for a CC meltdown. Lets git r dun, Angels.

#10 God's Cop


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 06:06 AM

Hurt them, then even the series.

#11 Foulkey Reese


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 12:06 PM

Even Yankee fans in the Dominican are assholes.

Time for Tori Hunter to man up.

#12 TheoShmeo


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 12:16 PM

It pains me to root for Scott Kazmir. And I expect the the MFYs to pitch count him to death.

But I can deal with pain and this is Kazmir's time to step up.

I also think CC is not beyond throwing an absolute stinkbomb in a big spot, as he happily did in the 2007 ALCS. Few things would be make me happier tonight.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 20 October 2009 - 12:29 PM.


#13 Al Zarilla


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 01:05 PM

QUOTE (Foulkey Reese @ Oct 20 2009, 10:06 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Even Yankee fans in the Dominican are assholes.

Time for Tori Hunter to man up.

There's no i in team, but there are two of them in Torii smile.gif. He did look like a whipped dog late in yesterday's game with his feeble swings.

#14 The Smart Dope

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 02:07 PM

Just saying: http://whatifsports....spx?gid=2095958 This is a simulation of today's game in Angel Stadium, CC vs. Kazmir. I like that win there. Not so happy about how well Sabathia does, and there's likely no way Giradi manages the bullpen that well.



WIN.

EDIT: Yeah on the Napoli inside the parker (it'd be neat, though, no?)... I'm just doing this to test the accuracy on this thing. It doesn't seem too great.

Edited by The Smart Dope, 20 October 2009 - 02:16 PM.


#15 RIrooter09

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 02:10 PM

QUOTE (The Smart Dope @ Oct 20 2009, 03:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Just saying: http://whatifsports....spx?gid=2095958 This is a simulation of today's game in Angel Stadium, CC vs. Kazmir. I like that win there. No so happy about how well Sabathia does, and there's likely no way Giradi manages the bullpen that well.



WIN.


Also I tend to doubt Mike Napoli will hit an inside the park home run.

#16 Wingack


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 03:32 PM

Guys got some speed for a catcher.

Anyway, I will be away for tonight's game, and catch up on DVR.

Tex, wake up. And pull Nick Swisher out of his sleeping bag.

Girardi, let someone else manage today.

#17 brs3


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 04:04 PM

QUOTE (jon abbey @ Oct 20 2009, 01:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Kazmir started three times against NY this year, two for TB and one for LAA (on 9/23). He pitched well in all three games, so he's due for a clunker [/wishful thinking]. His last start was in the clincher at Fenway on 10/11 (8 days of rest), Boston scored 5 runs early but couldn't knock him out and he ended up going six innings. Tex, Posada and Melky have good numbers against him; the other six guys he's abused (.442 OPS for Jeter, .425 for A-Rod, .308 for Cano, all six under .600, insane numbers).


5 runs in 6 innings of a playoff game is a clunker in my book. I hope he righted whatever it was that allowed the Sox to get 5 runs off him and shuts the MFY down for 6 scoreless

#18 BrooklynJM

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 04:38 PM

The Angels bullpen pitched 6 innings yesterday - Oliver threw 28 pitches and Jepsen threw 31. Kazmir is a six inning pitcher (only 7/26 starts this year pitching into the 7th). Someone is going to have to get some late inning outs for the Angels today - either a tired Oliver/Jepsen or one of their second tier reliever.

Meanwhile, the one good outcome of Girardi's brainfarts was that nobody in the Yankees bullpen threw more than 19 pitches (Hughes). Plus there is CC who is a horse, no matter the rest (only 6/34 starts this year where he did NOT see the 7th).

Win.

Edited by BrooklynJM, 20 October 2009 - 04:41 PM.


#19 SemperFidelisSox


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 05:01 PM

Mariano Rivera spits.

#20 jon abbey


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 05:41 PM

QUOTE (brs3 @ Oct 20 2009, 05:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
5 runs in 6 innings of a playoff game is a clunker in my book.


Yeah, definitely, I was just talking about his starts against NY this year there.


#21 jon abbey


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 05:49 PM

Both teams with their best hitting lineups, both have juggled the order slightly. Posada up to 5th, flipping with Matsui against the lefty. Kendrick up to 6th, flipping with Morales. I wonder if Scioscia considered going with the hot-hitting and better defender Mathis over Napoli.

YANKEES
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Melky Cabrera CF

Pitching: LHP CC Sabathia (2-0, 1.23 ERA)

ANGELS
Chone Figgins 3B
Bobby Abreu RF
Torii Hunter CF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Juan Rivera LF
Howie Kendrick 2B
Kendry Morales 1B
Mike Napoli C
Erick Aybar SS

Pitching: LHP Scott Kazmir (0-0, 7.50 ERA)

#22 brienc

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 06:05 PM


Edited by brienc, 20 October 2009 - 06:09 PM.


#23 johnmd20


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 06:09 PM

QUOTE (E5 Yaz @ Oct 20 2009, 03:53 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Another reason to believe that all the signs are pointing in NY's direction in Game 4. It would be a stunning, crushing demoralizing event for the Yankees should the Angels win.

I like this foreshadowing.

#24 Laser Show

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 06:14 PM

I'm very surprised Scioscia didn't go with Mathis after the two huge doubles yesterday, plus his defense. I would have.



#25 DukeSox


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 06:20 PM



#26 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 06:55 PM

QUOTE (Laser Show @ Oct 20 2009, 07:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm very surprised Scioscia didn't go with Mathis after the two huge doubles yesterday, plus his defense. I would have.

Mathis has a .625 OPS against LHP this year, Napoli is at 1.023.

Also, FWIW, Napoli has caught all but one of Kazmir's starts this season with LA, so it seems like he's Kazmir's personal catcher.

#27 Jnai


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 06:57 PM

QUOTE (DukeSox @ Oct 20 2009, 06:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Glad someone else saw this. Saw it last night and my fiancee and I were like WTF

#28 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:00 PM

How many bloops has this asshole hit in his career? A thousand? More?

INTANGIBLES!

#29 NYCSox


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:01 PM

Bloop hit to RF #3313

Yes!!

#30 RedOctober3829


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:01 PM

The sound you hear was Jeter's cock coming out of Tim's mouth.

#31 brs3


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:01 PM

FIST PUMP!

#32 brs3


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:02 PM

Get 3 quick, then kill CC.

#33 DukeSox


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:02 PM



#34 Jnai


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:02 PM

The Ninja Assassin keys to the game?

#35 The Smart Dope

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:02 PM

And, the caught stealing, groan.

#36 jtn46


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:02 PM

Jeter doing stupid shit is always entertaining. Someone should put together a Derek Jeter low-light reel. I would watch it.

#37 The Smart Dope

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:05 PM

QUOTE (Jnai @ Oct 20 2009, 08:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The Ninja Assassin keys to the game?


Yankees: Make them ALL Angels, aim for Kendrick's head, remember Ray Chapman/Carl Mays
Angels: Try for liners off Sabathia's stomach; Drill Jeter, Convince A-Rod he's Donnie Moore

Edited by The Smart Dope, 20 October 2009 - 07:05 PM.


#38 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:05 PM

Memo to Kazmir: Quit going inside and low on Teixeira.

#39 NYCSox


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:05 PM

Might be time for a slider. Yikes.

#40 NYCSox


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:05 PM

That works.

Bats. Lots of bats in the bottom of the innings.

#41 cheekydave

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:07 PM

5 years ago today, Sox complete the comeback beat Yankees in the 2004 ALCS.

Good memory Mojo.

#42 Harry Hooper


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:08 PM



If pitches 1.5 inches above the belt continue to be called balls tonight, this game could take a while to play.

#43 NYCSox


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:09 PM

And the 412th line drive right at a MFY player. mad.gif

#44 FenwayFrenzy

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:09 PM

Quick, someone make a sacrifice to BABIP.

#45 brs3


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:11 PM

Here we go, Torii.

#46 FenwayFrenzy

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:11 PM

Pat Sajak in the house again!

Where the hell is everyone tonight? This place is more dead than.... well, some guy on the Angels outfield wall.

#47 Mike in CT



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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:11 PM

I wish Figgins would have taken some pitches.

#48 NYCSox


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:14 PM

Another rocket turned into an out. mad.gif

#49 brs3


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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:15 PM

Maybe Bobby Abreu should remind his teammates to take a pitch from a guy who's going on 3 days rest.

#50 The Smart Dope

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Posted 20 October 2009 - 07:15 PM

I sacrificed some (head) hair to BABIP. Let's see what happens. smile.gif