[Snodgrass'Muff]

11/19/08 - Acquired relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez in exchange for outfielder Coco Crisp.
12/3/08 - Signed INF Dustin Pedroia to a 6 year contract.
12/4/08 - Signed free agent Independent Japanese League pitcher Junichi Tazawa to a 3 year contract.
1/5/09 - Signed INF Nick Green to a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training.
1/8/09 - Signed OF Rocco Baldelli to a 1 year contract.
1/9/09 - Signed SP Brad Penny to a 1 year contract.
1/10/09 - Signed relief pitcher Takashi Saito to a 1 year contract with a club option for 2010.
1/13/09 - Signed SP John Smoltz to a 1 year contract.
1/15/09 - Re-signed OF Mark Kotsay to a 1 year contract.
1/16/09 - Signed INF Kevin Youkilis to a 4 year contract with a club option for a 5th year.
2/6/09 - Re-signed catcher Jason Varitek to a 1 year contract with a mutual option for 2010.
3/8/09 - Signed RHP Jon Lester to a 5 year contract.
7/22/09 - Traded SS Argenis Diaz and RHP Hunter Strickland to the Pirates for 1B Adam LaRoche/Adam LaRoche traded to Atlanta for 1B Casey Kotchman on 7/31/09.
7/31/09 - Traded RHP's Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price to the Indians for C Victor Martinez.
8/5/09 - Signed RHP Paul Byrd to a minor league contract.
8/14/09 - Traded SS Kristopher Negron to the Reds for SS Alex Gonzalez.
8/26/09 - Traded 2 PTBNL for RHP Billy Wagner. (PTBNL: Eddie Lora and Chris Carter)

December 4th, 2008: The Boston Red Sox signed Japanese Independent League pitcher Junichi Tazawa to a 3 year contract after he decided to forgo the Japanese amateur player draft. The deal is worth 3.3 million, including a 1.8 million dollar signing bonus.

This is another move that will be tough to judge until we can look back on it with hindsight, but it did have an impact on the 2009 season and it did net them a great prospect and that does have value.

[SydneySox]

Great move.

He's been very good in the minors and though he struggled in the Majors he's got time to develop. But I think the links the Sox are building in Japan are almost as good an outcome right now, even if Tazawa doesn't improve further; it's pissed off the Nippon league but it's set a precedent that allows the Sox to take the lead in getting to young pitchers, like Yusei Kikuchi for example, before they enter the long professional system in Japan. This obviously gives the Sox a chance to develop them in their own way; it also allows them to avoid the strange posting system.

This post has been edited by SydneySox: 19 October 2009 - 05:18 AM

[Quintanariffic]

I'd be interested to know who voted that it was a poor move. They spent $3MM - a pittance for them - to acquire the rights to a guy who is going to have a career with little risk of flaming out in an ascent through the minor leagues. Giving up no talent and relatively short money to acquire league average production, which it appears Tazawa will grow into, is a solid move in my book.

[LondonSox]

They got a good talent who did very well in AA right after signing despite the cultural adjustment at a young age, he's a very good prospect who this year threw out of the windup for the first time yet put up a 2.57 ERA in AA with a 1.08 WHIP and 88K in 98 IP with only 26BB. And he's only 23.
Clear upside.
Downside limited to cash
Others were reportedly willing to pay more but Sox got him for less than "market".

Errr A. Not sure how you can vite for anything else.
It's a B even if he sucked, but he was really good!

[smastroyin]

Definite A. I suspect people are downgrading based on the thought that since he pitched in the majors this year, his major league performance should be considered. What I mean is that people may think the Sox signed him with the expectation that he would make the majors. Coming into the season he was probably 12th or 13th on the depth chart, but his actual performance put him above the AAAA guys which is to his credit, even if he didn't perform well once he got to the majors. A great move when it was made, as well as a move that worked out well.

[Rasputin]

I don't think you can call something a great move until you have significant positive results at the major league level. As such, I voted B.

[EpsteinsGorillaSuit]

That attitude is short sighted. Epstein's job is to run a process of decision making that has a higher chance of success than his competitors. This job does not entail having every individual decision pay out perfectly and immediately.

The Red Sox went somewhat outside the box on this signing and picked up a promising young arm for no cost in talent and less money than a medium first round draft pick. The player impressed enough in his first year in pro ball in the states that he became the best MLB option on an injury depleted pitching staff for some of the year.

This was a great move, even if Tazawa flames out. Low cost and high upside. You would do this again in a heartbeat.

[amarshal2]

This is a no-brainer A. Six years out of a guy who at least figures to be a decent bullpen arm for a $3M bonus. He might be a lot more, too. Great move.

This post has been edited by amarshal2: 19 October 2009 - 08:07 AM

[Rasputin]

That attitude is short sighted. Epstein's job is to run a process of decision making that has a higher chance of success than his competitors. This job does not entail having every individual decision pay out perfectly and immediately.

The Red Sox went somewhat outside the box on this signing and picked up a promising young arm for no cost in talent and less money than a medium first round draft pick. The player impressed enough in his first year in pro ball in the states that he became the best MLB option on an injury depleted pitching staff for some of the year.

This was a great move, even if Tazawa flames out. Low cost and high upside. You would do this again in a heartbeat.

It's more a reflection of the word great.

Of course you'd do this move again in a heartbeat but that isn't the question. The question was how good was this move in 2009? In 2009 it's almost entirely potential which pretty much by definition can't be A just because potential hasn't happened yet.

[smastroyin]

I think Tazawa is a special case because of his age and probably no need to try and change Ras's mind. If we were also grading the draft and minor league FA signings Tazawa would be more appropriate in that context. He's kind of a tweener because he was closer to the majors than most international signings, but not strictly ready for the majors like guys taken from the JBL. I can see Ras's point of view if we are talking solely about building the 2009 Red Sox, which is a different but also appropriate lens.

[Lose Remerswaal]

I voted B. You can't fully judge a signing until the player has had a real chance to perform at a Major League Level. Since he outperformed pretty much everyone's hopes for the minors, it's better than a C, but it can't be an A unless he comes up to the bigs and is above average.

[pokey_reese]

I also voted B, and while I can see the argument for A, I don't know that either is "correct." My thinking is simply that we got an advanced pitching prospect with some upside at a good price, but he is also 23 and has one season of AA ball under his belt. I think that this could end up being an 'A' move in the future, but I wouldn't call it one yet. As was mentioned he cost about what a mid-first round pick would, and if the Sox had taken a guy who had pitched 4 years of college ball with good control, several pitches and a fastball that sits at 91-93 mph in the first round it would have been a bit of a reach, but a good guy to have in the organization.

I guess the difference in opinion here has something to do with judging the method versus the specific move. Yes, I agree that the theory behind it was sound, and that you would want your GM to take this kind of chance every time, but if Tazawa flames out I wouldn't call it a great move simply because it could have worked out well.

[yecul]

This is already a success because Theo exchanged cash for an asset. A prospect does not have to make it to or succeed at the ML level to provide value. They can be traded, give roster depth, improve general opinion of the system (perception matters), etc.

Tazawa has moved up the ranks and can be considered depth for the pen and/or rotation. Maybe not ideal depth, but he's there and that is useful. Tazawa has some contract stipulations against being traded IIRC (which I might not), but let's ignore that -- either he can be traded or his presence will allow you to trade another pitcher. He has already made the ML team and risen in the ranks. You can certainly project him to make the Majors one way or the other.

So, yeah, this is an A in my book since it was just a cash outlay.

[LondonSox]

It's more a reflection of the word great.

Of course you'd do this move again in a heartbeat but that isn't the question. The question was how good was this move in 2009? In 2009 it's almost entirely potential which pretty much by definition can't be A just because potential hasn't happened yet.

If you would do the move again in a heartbeat clearly it's a good move. If you want to play semantics about the word "great" then go for it.

Tazawa got a 1.8mm bonus and 0.45mm salary this year.
He gets 0.5 in 2010 and 0.55 in 2011, he's also controlled for a long time regardless.

If you signed a mid first level pick he'd get that money and he'd be very unlikely to put up those numbers in AA.
More importantly, he'd be tradable for talent that would be worth more than 2.25mm which is the net cost.

They got a very good talent sub market price for a 1.8mm signing fee, who immediately pitched "great" at an advanced level. What exactly isn't great about that? How about excellent, superb?

[Lose Remerswaal]

This is already a success because Theo exchanged cash for an asset. A prospect does not have to make it to or succeed at the ML level to provide value. They can be traded, give roster depth, improve general opinion of the system (perception matters), etc.

So using that logic, you'll rate the Smoltz and Penny signings as A's also? Cash for assets, although at some point in time you have to consider an asset to be poison.

[yecul]

So using that logic, you'll rate the Smoltz and Penny signings as A's also? Cash for assets, although at some point in time you have to consider an asset to be poison.

No. Prospects can be used in trade (again, maybe not Tazawa), they have room to grow, and they provide roster flexibility.

Penny gave you questionable ability Smoltz gave you massive uncertainty. And on top of that they were roster inflexible. Not ideal.

Plus there's the whole detail about Tazawa being a (potential) part of the organization for half a decade rather than half a season.

[BucketOBalls]

Another bonus of Tazawa is that he did not cost a draft slot, so the team will still have their full compliment of picks in the next draft. I'm not sure what level prospect he would be considered; but if they got, say, a supplemental round talent without using a pick....good deal.

I don't think you need to know what he does at the ML level before evaluating this. Most prospects don't pan out, so that isn't much of a standard anyway. As long as they would have been willing to draft him out of college for similar money....this is a good deal.

The other factors people mentioned in this thread are in addition to this.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Ras's point is a valid one, depending on how we're evaluating the move. The idea I had in mind when I started these was to evaluate Theo's performance in 2009, which has implications on the future of the organization. That's why I ended up including things like Pedroia, Lester and Tazawa. Of course, if the discussion is moving in a different direction I have no intention of trying to guide it toward a specific point. The interesting thing about threads like these is in the various perspectives people bring to the table.

This isn't meant to create an objective, definitive and final evaluation of each individual move so much as it's here to inspire discussion and to get us to really break down exactly what Theo did in the last calendar year for the franchise.

[Sprowl]

I'm giving the Tazawa signing a B (provisional). It's certainly hard to complain about Theo finding new ways to secure new talent that don't involve giving up a draft pick, a lot of money, or the goodwill of future trading partners. My reservation is about Tazawa's talent -- he's only 23, so further development is still possible, indeed likely, but he looks like a low-ceiling pitcher to me. His fastball is barely 91, his forkball doesn't have much dive to it, and his curve rolls toward the plate rather than falling off the table. His command may be good enough to overcome mediocre stuff, but he would be a better prospect with at least one plus pitch, and I haven't seen it yet.

[LondonSox]

I'm giving the Tazawa signing a B (provisional). It's certainly hard to complain about Theo finding new ways to secure new talent that don't involve giving up a draft pick, a lot of money, or the goodwill of future trading partners. My reservation is about Tazawa's talent -- he's only 23, so further development is still possible, indeed likely, but he looks like a low-ceiling pitcher to me. His fastball is barely 91, his forkball doesn't have much dive to it, and his curve rolls toward the plate rather than falling off the table. His command may be good enough to overcome mediocre stuff, but he would be a better prospect with at least one plus pitch, and I haven't seen it yet.

8.1 K/9 2.4 BB/9 3.4 K/BB 1.08 WHIP and 2.57 ERA in AA at 23 in his taste of baseball outside the semi-pros in Japan doesn't sound like he has no talent to me.

Holy crap that's some harsh criteria. He's never pitched out of the wind-up before this year, which is a big change, so his stuff could very well play up when he becomes more accustomed to that.
If you don't think those numbers, given a huge cultural shift, and level of competition shift and change in delivery method all at once don't suggest he has some real talent or any plus pitch I'm not sure what to tell you. It's true he might be getting by on command at a low level but AA isn't chopped liver.

Maybe I'm too result focused instead of scouting here, but generally as we hit AA and AAA I think the results ARE important.