432 replies to this topic

[dbouchard79]

I don't disagree with anything you've said there at all Miskatonic and I do, admittedly, overvalue prospects. I'm kind of glad I don't have to be the one to make the decisions. My brother is a member of these boards though he is an actual member and not a lurker like myself. We have these kinds of discussions all the time and I think he said it best to me once. Adrian Gonzalez IS what you HOPE Lars Anderson will become. Speaking again from my personal opinion I really only have a crush on Buchholz, Bard, Westmoreland and Rizzo. Kelly is fantastic but I would be more than willing to move him in a deal if the price is right.

[sykedoc]

I think it really matters what kind of upgrade this achieves and for how long.

Thinking about what comes along to the Padres for Gonzales is the thing here.
I mean if they want something like Anderson/Buchholz this trade makes no sense, and it seemed like thats what they wanted last season to hand off Gonzales.
I just fear that someone will look at this trade without considering that some of our prospects have a higher ceiling than Gonzales.
Hopefully we're smarter than that.

For the right price? If its a trade that won't injure us in the long run then it'd be worth a shot, but personally I'd rather wait for a big free agent opening to roll around.

[Miskatonic PhD]

I just fear that someone will look at this trade without considering that some of our prospects have a higher ceiling than Gonzales.
Hopefully we're smarter than that.

Which prospects do you see as having a higher ceiling than Gonzalez, out of curiousity? We're talking about someone who plays plus defense (at a non-premium defensive position admittedly) and projects to be an absolute monster with the stick in Fenway.

[Bernie Hudson]

Which prospects do you see as having a higher ceiling than Gonzalez, out of curiousity? We're talking about someone who plays plus defense (at a non-premium defensive position admittedly) and projects to be an absolute monster with the stick in Fenway.

I just read a Boston.com article that basicly said the Sox don't have the prospects to pull off a trade for Gonzo. My question, if questions are allowed is; could they do a prospect plus cash, or is that not allowed?

[Synovia]

<br />Which prospects do you see as having a higher ceiling than Gonzalez, out of curiousity? We're talking about someone who plays plus defense (at a non-premium defensive position admittedly) and projects to be an absolute monster withThere the stick in Fenway.<br />

<br /

There are plenty of guys who might have a higher ceiling. Most of them (and maybe all of them), will never reach that potential.

Ryan Westmoreland is a good example. He OPS'ed about 30 points higher in A than Gonzales, at the same age, plays a tougher position, and plays it better,.

[BostonJack42]

<br /

There are plenty of guys who might have a higher ceiling. Most of them (and maybe all of them), will never reach that potential.

Ryan Westmoreland is a good example. He OPS'ed about 30 points higher in A than Gonzales, at the same age, plays a tougher position, and plays it better,.

See I really cannot agree with this. You can't really do better (in the post-PEDs era anyhow) than a 1B hitting 40+ home runs, in a pitchers park while playing plus defense - at the major league level. Add in that he's young and extremely affordable.

He also hasn't been linked to PDC's like other NL hitters, namely Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard.

PDC's stands for "Performance Decreasing Cheeseburgers" - ie it doesn't look like to me that Gonzales is going to eat his way into a DH role anytime soon.

To me I think the ceiling is a player like Gonzales.

[crazybird1]

I know I am repeating myself here but I feel I must. The truth is, we don't have any upper end prospects that are going to be ready in the next few years. The Padres play in a division were it does not take much to contend. Any prospects they get for Adrian Gonzalez should be ready now, or within a year. Because of that I think we look at trading Beckett and or Papelbon and turning them into the prospects we need to get Gonzalez. The team I think this would work best with would be the Phillys though I am sure the argument can be made for another team. As for our rotation in 2010, yes it might be questionable, but I don't think the lack of Beckett means we are automatically an under five hundred team. Our offense should be effective, especially with the addition of Gonzalez, and our bullpen should continue to be a plus. As for the starting rotation, I think it will be at the whims of Bucholz and whatever reclamation project Theo signs. If Bucholz manages to pitch as effectively as he did in the second half of the last season we should be ok. What makes this a little easier to swallow is the fact that come 2011 Halladay, Beckett, and Lee will all be free agents. We can easily right our rotation then. This might seem drastic but Adrian Gonzalez not only strengthens our offense but he also shores up our defense.

[dbouchard79]

I just read a Boston.com article that basicly said the Sox don't have the prospects to pull off a trade for Gonzo. My question, if questions are allowed is; could they do a prospect plus cash, or is that not allowed?

Adding cash to the deal is most certainly allowed, but I wonder who at the Globe is clueless enough to claim that the Red Sox don't have the prospects to get a deal done. If the Sox don't have the prospects, it makes me wonder what team does. I suppose there could be some belief that the rumored three team trade with the White Sox, Angels and Padres but it makes me wonder why on Earth the Angels would want to let Adrian Gonzalez go to Chicago, while they settle for Paul Konerko? Didn't the White Sox just send a good majority of their talent to San Diego for Jake Peavy? Wouldn't the Angels be better positioned to get Adrian Gonzalez in the deal? Besides that the Angels already have Kendry Morales, why on Earth would they want to add another first baseman, unless of course they were planning on DHing him. A lot of these rumors, at least IMHO, are written by sportswriters hoping that the team they cover will be involved in a big offseason move so that they have something important to write about. Quite frankly I hope the Red Sox stay away from trading for Adrian Gonzalez, the price is just going to be to high for my tastes.

[The Mino 007]

The Sox don't have any great prospects that are ready to contribute next year. So in case the Sox might have to trade Buchholz or Ellsbury for him. Bard is good as gone and so Lars Anderson, Kelly, Westmoreland. That is fine, the reason why you have prospects is to have chips, these chips can be traded for established, young players who already get the job done. I would much rather take Adrian Gonzalez and his 40 homers then take the risk that in a few years Westmoreland and Anderson pan out and at best put up similar numbers. Its not worth the risk. Trade Ellsbury if you have too, this team needs a big bat. Sign Cameron and put him in CF for a year.

Edited by The Mino 007, 18 November 2009 - 07:40 PM.

[Synovia]

See I really cannot agree with this. You can't really do better (in the post-PEDs era anyhow) than a 1B hitting 40+ home runs, in a pitchers park while playing plus defense - at the major league level. Add in that he's young and extremely affordable.

The question was about ceilings and potentials. Westmoreland has the potential to do that at a position much higher up the defensive spectrum. If Westmoreland can hit like Gonzalez, which he probably wont, hes worth probably 25 runs more.

[Synovia]

The Sox don't have any great prospects that are ready to contribute next year. So in case the Sox might have to trade [I am an Idiot] or Ellsbury for him. Bard is good as gone and so Lars Anderson, Kelly, Westmoreland. That is fine, the reason why you have prospects is to have chips, these chips can be traded for established, young players who already get the job done. I would much rather take Adrian Gonzalez and his 40 homers then take the risk that in a few years Westmoreland and Anderson pan out and at best put up similar numbers. Its not worth the risk. Trade Ellsbury if you have too, this team needs a big bat. Sign Cameron and put him in CF for a year.

Ellsbury, Buch, and Bard aren't prospects. They're major league players. Every one of those trades you're proposing would make the Red Sox a worse team.

Ellsbury alone is probably worth as much as Gonzalez. He's cost controlled longer, plays a premium position, and still is improving rapidly.

[Kilgore A. Trout]

The Padres do not need players that are MLB ready in the spring. They are in total blow up and rebuild mode, and that means three years if not more of rebuilding. I don't see them wanting Buchholz because his affordability ends before the cash flow from being competitive comes. So he'd probably only be a rental player for them, and not worth it.
The Padres should be stockpiling prospects if they trade Adrian. Two top prospects in AAA or AA plus two maybe three prospects that are further out from ready would be what they should be looking for. And the Red Sox have that. Reddick, Kalish, Bowden, Anderson, Bard, Tazawa, a few others on the top end- Kelly, Westmoreland, Pilmental, Igesias, Rizzo, and a few others for the undeveloped ones. Of course there are a few players in there I would say are untouchable due to the Sox own needs, both now and in the immediate future, but there should be plenty in there to get something done if everyone seriously wants it.
As it seems that the Mariners are looking to extend Felix, so he might not be available to anyone, Gonzalez is the best option by far for the Red Sox to improve the team, because he improves the offense and the defense a ton. Without having seen him in a big market, with the pressure that that comes with, I still feel certain that if the Sox land him to man first for the next eight years, at the very least you'll never hear a whine from any Sox fan in the world about Mark Teixera ever again.

[dbouchard79]

Ellsbury, Buch, and Bard aren't prospects. They're major league players. Every one of those trades you're proposing would make the Red Sox a worse team.

Ellsbury alone is probably worth as much as Gonzalez. He's cost controlled longer, plays a premium position, and still is improving rapidly.

Very well Synovia... I find this comparison to be very much like talk about Seattle asking for Lester back in a package for Felix Hernandez. Lester is already signed to a fairly long term deal at a very affordable price. Ellsbury, Bucholz and Bard are already contributing at a pretty high level for the major league club and trading any one of those players opens up a new hole while adding depth, granted a significant upgrade to Lowell, to positions where we already have players in place.

[BostonJack42]

The question was about ceilings and potentials. Westmoreland has the potential to do that at a position much higher up the defensive spectrum. If Westmoreland can hit like Gonzalez, which he probably wont, hes worth probably 25 runs more.

I understood the question and I get your point - if there's someone who could hit that well and play SS, CF, or a tougher defense spot than 1B - his potential would be more.

I just find it hard to believe that such a creature exists. Not when you factor in that this kid is doing it at the major league level in a pitcher's park.

[Synovia]

I understood the question and I get your point - if there's someone who could hit that well and play SS, CF, or a tougher defense spot than 1B - his potential would be more.

I just find it hard to believe that such a creature exists. Not when you factor in that this kid is doing it at the major league level in a pitcher's park.

Again, the fact that Westmoreland probably wont hit his absolute top potential doesn't mean it isn't there. He's young, which means the error bars are huge, but he was better in A than Gonzalez was.

Plus, he doesn't have to be nearly the hitter to be more valuable. The difference between a 1B and a CF is 15 runs. The difference (at the Plate) between Jacoby Ellsbury and Jason Bay is 18 runs for reference.

[Miskatonic PhD]

I seem to recall that if more than 1 million is changing hands, the commish needs to get his kickback approve the transaction.

As for the rest, the Sox are pretty thin on top-level, MLB prospects. Largely because the real talent in their farm system is either lurking at the lower levels or has recently graduated to the big club.

Edit: Spelling.

Edited by Miskatonic PhD, 18 November 2009 - 05:30 PM.

[dbouchard79]

Again, the fact that Westmoreland probably wont hit his absolute top potential doesn't mean it isn't there. He's young, which means the error bars are huge, but he was better in A than Gonzalez was.

Another good point Synovia. While I sit on the other side of the fence with this particular example, meaning I think Westmoreland is one of the few Sox prospects that I would deem untouchable, he is not even close to becoming a proven commodity like Adrian Gonzalez is. My brother convinced me of this in a discussion we were having about trading prospects. I have always admittedly been overly optimistic when evaluating young players. A good example IMO is Lars Anderson. Every Sox fan hopes that he will become what Adrian Gonzalez already is. So why wouldn't the Sox want to move him if they were able to obtain a player that they hope he becomes, it would be foolish to pass up the opportunity. You never know if this past slump that Lars Anderson had is a sign of him falling off the horse or merely getting tripped up, but you don't have to worry about such things with a proven player like Adrian Gonzalez.

[Renescent]

This discussion has me thinking... would it be easier to find an up and coming catcher that wouldn't cost us the farm system and transition VMart to 1st full time? I can only imagine, like Youk moving to 3rd, defense improves over time when focusing on a single position.

[Synovia]

<br />Another good point Synovia. While I sit on the other side of the fence with this particular example, meaning I think Westmoreland is one of the few Sox prospects that I would deem untouchable, he is not even close to becoming a proven commodity like Adrian Gonzalez is....Every Sox fan hopes that he will become what Adrian Gonzalez already is. So why wouldn't the Sox want to move him if they were able to obtain a player that they hope he becomes, it would be foolish to pass up the opportunity.

Because the sox don't hope that Westmoreland will be Gonzalez. The Sox hope Westmoreland will be something vastly more valuable than Adrian Gonzalez: Hanley Ramirez. An elite offensive player at a premium defensive position.

Lars, I'm with you.

I think Westmoreland is untouchable, or as close to it as it gets, but other than that I'm fine moving prospects. What I'm not fine with is moving guys like Clay Buch, or Ellsbury; proven MLB players who have elite upside and are cost controlled.

[Synovia]

<br />This discussion has me thinking... would it be easier to find an up and coming catcher that wouldn't cost us the farm system and transition VMart to 1st full time? I can only imagine, like Youk moving to 3rd, defense improves over time when focusing on a single position.<br />

Maybe. But Vmart as a first baseman isn't really a very good player. He doesn't hit well enough. He's only an elite player when hes a catcher.


.830 OPS first baseman pretty much grow on trees.

[The Mino 007]

I wonder what V-Mart's future with the Red Sox will be, we have picked up his option for this year, and all I've heard are whisperings that the Sox want to extend him. Would it be feasible and smart to extended V-Mart long term? I don't think his long term future is as a catcher, as we have seen during his final couple of years in Cleveland, he was trending more to being converted to a 1stbaseman. He's one of the best hitting catchers in all of baseball, but his defensive skills aren't impressive and how many games can he be limited to catching to before it starts to effect his offense? 100? 110? 120? Anyway, he is a decent firstbaseman in terms of offensive production, good, nothing great. An everyday firstbaseman will usually put up around that .830 OPS number that V-Mart has. He loses all his value when you transition him to 1stbase. I'd much rather try and trade for Gonzalez or Cabrera then slide V-Mart over there full time and try and find another young catcher for the future. How long to Exposito is ready? Three years? Two at the earliest? That is how long I would consider giving a contract offer to V-Mart for.

[mcpickl]

Maybe. But Vmart as a first baseman isn't really a very good player. He doesn't hit well enough. He's only an elite player when hes a catcher.


.830 OPS first baseman pretty much grow on trees.

He may not be an 830 OPS first baseman though.

For his career his OPS at C is 828, at 1B its 876 and was 942 this year.

I don't think its worth it to make him a full time 1B, but I think a similar 50/50 type split like this season will keep his bat closer to the 900 range rather than the mid 800s with less time at catcher wearing him out.

[Synovia]

as we have seen during his final couple of years in Cleveland, he was trending more to being converted to a 1stbaseman.

The only time that Martinez has played any substantial time at 1B is in 2009, and that was most likely due to the emergence of Kelly Shoppach, and Martinez's contract status, and not because of some decline in skill.

[dbouchard79]

If I'm not mistaken isn't Martinez coming back from offseason shoulder surgery or something of that nature? I know I've read somewhere that the Sox expect him to throw out a lot more runners in 2010 than he did in 2009 for this reason. I can't remember where though, anyone in the know that can verify this for me?

[Miskatonic PhD]

Because the sox don't hope that Westmoreland will be Gonzalez. The Sox hope Westmoreland will be something vastly more valuable than Adrian Gonzalez: Hanley Ramirez. An elite offensive player at a premium defensive position.

Of course they hope this. Every team hopes their prized prospects will turn into generational players.

The fact is, the vast majority do not. Someone like Westmoreland is a lottery ticket. Most tickets don't pan out. Someone like Adrian Gonzalez or any other star MLB player has already proven to be a winning ticket.

[Synovia]

Of course they hope this. Every team hopes their prized prospects will turn into generational players.

The fact is, the vast majority do not. Someone like Westmoreland is a lottery ticket. Most tickets don't pan out. Someone like Adrian Gonzalez or any other star MLB player has already proven to be a winning ticket.

Of course. I was responding to someone saying that the sox don't have any prospects with the potential to be better than Adrian Gonzalez, which is clearly incorrect. Or they don't understand what potential means.

[seantoo]

Because the sox don't hope that Westmoreland will be Gonzalez. The Sox hope Westmoreland will be something vastly more valuable than Adrian Gonzalez: Hanley Ramirez. An elite offensive player at a premium defensive position.

Lars, I'm with you.

I think Westmoreland is untouchable, or as close to it as it gets, but other than that I'm fine moving prospects. What I'm not fine with is moving guys like Clay Buch, or Ellsbury; proven MLB players who have elite upside and are cost controlled.

Synovia, I agree with you. Guys like Clay, Ellsbury, and Bard are even more valuable than propsects. One exception to this rule would be trading Buchholz for Felix Hernandez, still cost controlled albeit not as long, he's several years younger & better now.

Even if Clay becomes a #1 type pitcher (I think there is a realistic chance, with #2 more likely I don't know). King Felix is an ace. I think there is a distinction between a#1 and an ace. Every team has a #1 by default but that does not make you an ace. I'm not even sure I could define an ace, but I think typically there is only about a dozen.

[Synovia]

Synovia, I agree with you. Guys like Clay, Ellsbury, and Bard are even more valuable than propsects. One exception to this rule would be trading Buchholz for Felix Hernandez, still cost controlled albeit not as long, he's several years younger & better now.

Even if Clay becomes a #1 type pitcher (I think there is a realistic chance, with #2 more likely I don't know). King Felix is an ace. I think there is a distinction between a#1 and an ace. Every team has a #1 by default but that does not make you an ace. I'm not even sure I could define an ace, but I think typically there is only about a dozen.

Right, but I still don't think its worth moving Buch for Hernandez, even though Hernandez may be better, for one simple reason: You need 5 starting pitchers, and guys as good as Clay aren't much easier to find than guys as good as Hernandez. The upgrade simply isn't worth what you'd need to give up (several other prospects, and 3 MORE years of a cost controlled very good starter).

Bill James predicts Clay this year to pitch 161 innings at 3.9 ERA. He predicts Hernandez to pitch 230 innings at 3.4.

So yes, Hernandez is an improvement, but in 2 years, when Clay is getting 1.5M a year, and Hernandez is looking for 20M a year? Not so much. Especially when theres the chance of Beckett being gone, and us needing more starters.

[Miskatonic PhD]

Bill James predicts Clay this year to pitch 161 innings at 3.9 ERA. He predicts Hernandez to pitch 230 innings at 3.4.

So yes, Hernandez is an improvement, but in 2 years, when Clay is getting 1.5M a year, and Hernandez is looking for 20M a year? Not so much. Especially when theres the chance of Beckett being gone, and us needing more starters.

Hernandez, if things unfold per James' predictions, would be a HELL of an improvement. Almost 50% more innings (and yes, you need 5 starters, but each of them tap the bullpen to a greater, or in this case vastly lesser degree) at significantly better performance?

I say, if that's on the table, you make the deal, pay the 20 million in a couple of years (the Sox aren't poor) and wave goodbye to a few I am too lazy to type the one extra letter in prospects, too.

Edit: Spelling. Left the "prospects" auto-edit in though.

Edited by Miskatonic PhD, 19 November 2009 - 01:49 PM.

[Synovia]

Hernandez, if things unfold per James' predictions, would be a HELL of an improvement. Almost 50% more innings (and yes, you need 5 starters, but each of them tap the bullpen to a greater, or in this case vastly lesser degree) at significantly better performance?

Next year, yeah. But the year after? (And I don't think Hernandez pitches anywhere near 230 innings in Fenway, Outs are easier to get in Safeco, and that means less pitches, and I think Buch goes way more than 160 in Safeco).

1 Year of Hernandez is certainly better than 1 year of Buchholz right now. But is 2 years of Hernandez better than 5 years of Buchholz? Is it when you have to throw in additional prospects that could upgrade the team elsewhere?

[Miskatonic PhD]

Next year, yeah. But the year after? (And I don't think Hernandez pitches anywhere near 230 innings in Fenway, Outs are easier to get in Safeco, and that means less pitches, and I think Buch goes way more than 160 in Safeco).

1 Year of Hernandez is certainly better than 1 year of Buchholz right now. But is 2 years of Hernandez better than 5 years of Buchholz? Is it when you have to throw in additional prospects that could upgrade the team elsewhere?

Good thing he wouldn't be pitching exclusively at Fenway, then. And I have my doubts about Buchholz pitching 160 anywhere in the majors next year.

And I'd say that yes, 2 years of Hernandez is worth more than 5 of a far less proven commodity. Particularly when you factor in the idea that you might just get to keep him longer than that.

And again, we go around this circle. Additional prospects that could upgrade the team. Or could prove worthless. Most likely somewhere between the two extremes.

Yes, I make that deal. Twice, if King Felix has a twin somewhere.

[Synovia]

Good thing he wouldn't be pitching exclusively at Fenway, then. And I have my doubts about Buchholz pitching 160 anywhere in the majors next year.

Why do you have doubts on Buchholz pitching 160? He's got a slot, and I think the sox intend to give him the season. I think this year is sink or swim for him. I could see doubt about him putting up that 3.9 ERA, but not doubting him getting the chance to.

And again, we go around this circle. Additional prospects that could upgrade the team. Or could prove worthless. Most likely somewhere between the two extremes.

I'm not talking about as players. I'm talking about as trade bait. I'd rather see them move prospects for something they actually need, like a SS, or a 3B, or a LF.

[Kilgore A. Trout]

I'm not talking about as players. I'm talking about as trade bait. I'd rather see them move prospects for something they actually need, like a SS, or a 3B, or a LF.

Well, a pitcher like Felix... You always need a pitcher like Felix. Even if you already have one, you always need another.
But one, if the Mariners are actually getting in on some of the free agent arms out there, I somehow don't think their financial need to shop Felix is as existent as people think it is, and two, this is a thread about Adrian Gonzalez, not Felix Hernandez, who gets his own thread elsewhere.
So let's keep the eye on the ball.

[Synovia]

Well, a pitcher like Felix... You always need a pitcher like Felix. Even if you already have one, you always need another.

I completely agree. I just don't think you give up Buch to get him. I think giving up Buch is like robbing Peter to pay Paul. I see trading Buch for Felix like I see trading Lester for Santana. You're offsetting most of the gain.

Trade away Kelly, Pimiental, whatever, I don't care. Just not Buchholz. They've already taken all the risk with Buch.

[The Mino 007]

If I'm not mistaken isn't Martinez coming back from offseason shoulder surgery or something of that nature? I know I've read somewhere that the Sox expect him to throw out a lot more runners in 2010 than he did in 2009 for this reason. I can't remember where though, anyone in the know that can verify this for me?

He would throw out more runners if the pitchers held the runners on better. Thats the pitching staff, and the managements fault.

[crazybird1]

Getting back to the idea of trading a vetern for prospects, which could be flipped for Adrian Gonzalez here is Gammo.

Gammons: I think the only way they make a blockbuster is (1) if they get frustrated with the Josh Beckett contract extension negotiations and can get three prime prospects for him

As I have stated before I think the Phillies could be a perfect fit. I have read they are in a win now mode and a top three of Lee Beckett and Hamels would help them win. As for the sox, they are not necessarily going to be a below five hundred team with the loss of Beckett, but they can always shore up there pitching staff in 2011 when Beckett, Lee, and Holliday become free agents.

[pvon]

Getting back to the idea of trading a vetern for prospects, which could be flipped for Adrian Gonzalez here is Gammo.



As I have stated before I think the Phillies could be a perfect fit. I have read they are in a win now mode and a top three of Lee Beckett and Hamels would help them win. As for the sox, they are not necessarily going to be a below five hundred team with the loss of Beckett, but they can always shore up there pitching staff in 2011 when Beckett, Lee, and Holliday become free agents.

I think this observation is quite interesting. Maybe the Sox should consider taking one step back in order to take two steps forward. What if the Sox were to move towards trading the likes of Beckett, Papelbon, Ortiz, Lowell, Drew. (Obviously, Ortiz and Lowel don't yield much right now.)

[crazybird1]

I don't think Drew would yield much due to the money remaining on his contract, but I do think that is a bit drastic. Right now the Sox need some pop and they need to shore up the left side of the infield. Getting Adrian Gonzalez would accomplish all that. Trading Beckett and possible Papelbon should net us enough prospects to flip to San Diego for Gonzalez. If it doesn't then Hoyer is just greedy. I also think a rotation of Lester, DiceK, [I am an Idiot], Wakefield, Relamation project/Bowden/Tazawa isn't going to set the world on fire but should keep the sox in the race if all goes according to plan.

[Kilgore A. Trout]

Here's the White Sox- Angels- Padres rumor for Gonzalez:

three way deal rumor

This idea strikes me a ludicrous. Someone want to explain to me what the Angels would want with Konerko? I know they like him, but they have Morales, who might be better than Konerko in a year or two anyway.
If the White Sox aren't willing to relinquish top prospects, then no amount of creativity is going to make a difference.

[crazybird1]

Kilgore I think that was first reported about a week ago and it was consider bunk. But if there is validity to it you have to imagine whatever prospects the sox can get for Beckett plus possibly one of Bowden Reddick or Anderson would trump that offer.

[seantoo]

Right, but I still don't think its worth moving Buch for Hernandez, even though Hernandez may be better, for one simple reason: You need 5 starting pitchers, and guys as good as Clay aren't much easier to find than guys as good as Hernandez. The upgrade simply isn't worth what you'd need to give up (several other prospects, and 3 MORE years of a cost controlled very good starter).

Bill James predicts Clay this year to pitch 161 innings at 3.9 ERA. He predicts Hernandez to pitch 230 innings at 3.4.

So yes, Hernandez is an improvement, but in 2 years, when Clay is getting 1.5M a year, and Hernandez is looking for 20M a year? Not so much. Especially when theres the chance of Beckett being gone, and us needing more starters.

I don't think there is a right or wrong here & I stress that. You may very well be right and if they don't trade Clay I'd be very happy with him goin forward. I agree that the prospect package included in any such deal can reach a point where it is simply not worth it. Where that lies? Who among us here really knows? That said elite talent should be acquired and/or held on to whenver the chance presents itself. I actually think the possibility of Beckett leaving makes Hernandez more attrative to us. I think there is alot to be said for 70 more innings pitched at half a run a game less as well.

[crazybird1]

I thought this was an Adrian Gonzalez thread. In fact I could have sworn there was a thread for Hernandez.

[The Mino 007]

If the deal of Buchholz + Kelley or Westmoreland + B Prospect gets A. Gonazlez to come to Boston and SD likes that package, please Theo fire away. The center piece of that trade, Clay Buchholz is a 26 year SP who has been slow to adapt to the Major League Hitting and his best year was last year, which was nothing great for a supposed ace of the future. Well he is 26, so when the hell is the future? This is the perfect time to trade Clay. Isn't Gonzalez the same age roughly and he is already hitting 40 homers in a season? Seems like he is the smart option to me. He is a relatively young, still cheap, and established as a monster. Clay, well, isn't established or a monster, or even good at this point. 1B last longer than SP's anyway. Do this trade if we can.

[joet444]

i would recommend that sox throw in kotchman with bucholtz and westmoreland in excahnge for gonzo and corriea
sd wants to trade corriea, sox would gladly take a 200 inning pitcher with a sub 4 era
let's sweeten the pot and make this a blockbuster.

[Puffy]

If the deal of Buchholz + Kelley or Westmoreland + B Prospect gets A. Gonazlez to come to Boston and SD likes that package, please Theo fire away. The center piece of that trade, Clay Buchholz is a 26 year SP who has been slow to adapt to the Major League Hitting and his best year was last year, which was nothing great for a supposed ace of the future. Well he is 26, so when the hell is the future? This is the perfect time to trade Clay. Isn't Gonzalez the same age roughly and he is already hitting 40 homers in a season? Seems like he is the smart option to me. He is a relatively young, still cheap, and established as a monster. Clay, well, isn't established or a monster, or even good at this point. 1B last longer than SP's anyway. Do this trade if we can.

Buchholz is 25. He turned 25 in August. He won't be 26 for another 8 months.

Since you asked, Adrian Gonzalez turns 28 in May.

Birthdays (for the record, for what it's worth):

Buchholz (8/14/1984)
Gonzalez (5/8/1982)

I'd rather trade Ellsbury for Adrian Gonzalez than Buchholz.

[dbouchard79]

Amen Puffy. Keep Buchholz. Keep that pitching rotation. Does anyone think its possible for a team to have five 15+ game winning pitchers?

[Tyrone Biggums]

Amen Puffy. Keep Buchholz. Keep that pitching rotation. Does anyone think its possible for a team to have five 15+ game winning pitchers?

Its possible and with the new defense, you can afford to do it. However I actually value Miggy higher looking at the numbers. He's probably this generations Manny Ramirez, however his conditioning and character is in question.

[dbouchard79]

Its possible and with the new defense, you can afford to do it. However I actually value Miggy higher looking at the numbers. He's probably this generations Manny Ramirez, however his conditioning and character is in question.

LOL... the similarities to Ramirez certainly don't end with his production at the plate. I agree with your analysis. I say I'd like to keep the rotation together as is, but my feelings certainly wouldn't be hurt if the Sox decided to trade for a big time bat like Cabrera or Gonzalez.

[deathhawke74]

LOL... the similarities to Ramirez certainly don't end with his production at the plate. I agree with your analysis. I say I'd like to keep the rotation together as is, but my feelings certainly wouldn't be hurt if the Sox decided to trade for a big time bat like Cabrera or Gonzalez.

Gonzalez is far better than Cabrera. Also, Cabrera is not even a remote possibility. Here's why:

1. Money--(Cabrera is owed something like $120 million over the next 6 years. Ouch. Gonzalez is 4.75 next year and 5.5 the year after.)
2. Defense (Gonzalez=2 time Gold Glover vs. Average 1B)
2. Character and work ethic (Cabrera was recently in a domestic violence case with his wife, and every year it seems like he adds 20 pounds. Gonzalez is known to be a great clubhouse leader and his top choice for a trade is Boston.)

Because of the big contract just doled out to Lackey and a contract given to Cameron, there is absolutely 100% no way that the Sox trade for Cabrera. NO way. I am just hoping that all it would take to get Gonzalez is Buchholz+Westmoreland. Buchholz has top of the rotation potential, and Westmoreland is only 19 with a good year of A ball under his belt. He hit 7 HR in 223 AB, .885 OPS.

[dbouchard79]

I would rather see the Sox move Casey Kelly than Ryan Westmoreland. But I don't think that they are going to move either one. It'll be interesting to see how things play out.