432 replies to this topic

[ivanvamp]

From cnnsi's Jon Heyman (http://sportsillustr...2/angels/1.html)

"The Brewers will try to sign star Prince Fielder to a long-term contract this winter. If those talks don't go well, it's possible they could consider trading him. However, it will probably be difficult to get fair value for him in a year when the ridiculously cost-efficient Adrian Gonzalez (who has two years left at $9 million) also is expected to hit the trade market."

Ok, let's stop right there and think very hard. Gonzalez is "expected" to hit the trade market. That's very, very good news for the Red Sox.

Heyman also said, "Red Sox assistant GM Jed Hoyer appears to be the favorite to replace Kevin Towers in San Diego. Jeff Moorad said in a recent phone interview that he'd like to have someone in place soon." Isn't that interesting? So let's say that Hoyer goes to San Diego and Gonzalez is on the trade market. Hoyer knows the Red Sox' talent as well as anyone....does that help or hurt the Sox' cause here?

Let's look at Gonzalez:

Age: 27
Contract: 10:$4.75M, 11:$5.5M club option (no buyout)
Last 4 years' of stats:
2006 (24): 24 hr, 82 rbi, .304/.362/.500/.862, 127 ops+
2007 (25): 30 hr, 100 rbi, .282/.347/.502/.849, 125 ops+
2008 (26): 36 hr, 119 rbi, .279/.361/.510/.871, 138 ops+
2009 (27): 40 hr, 99 rbi, .277/.407/.551/.958, 163 ops+

I don't know how to reverse-engineer ops+ to specific ballparks, but I'm betting that his 2009 stat line, if he was with the Red Sox, would have looked something like this: 43 hr, 120 rbi (Sox have many more guys on base than SD does), .283/.410/.570/.980....something like that.

Very clearly, an elite player at a position where the Red Sox really could use a long-term solution. They need a masher, and they need a corner IF (if they got a big-time 3b, that could work equally as well, since Youk could play either spot).

Now, what would San Diego want in return? I'm guessing four major pieces (a combo of major leaguers and top-shelf minor league prospects).
1. They'd need a 1b to replace Gonzalez.
2. They need pitching - Peavy got traded this past year.
3. They could use an outfielder - Headley is young and pretty decent; Gwynn as well. But that 3rd OF spot is manned by Brian Giles and Will Venable.

Ok, so what package would be *REALISTIC*? Here's my suggested package:

Matsuzaka - would thrive in that ballpark, even can hit, just 28 years of age, pitched well down the stretch this year, and has a reasonable contract...the Sox, not the Padres, are on the hook for the posting fee. Here's his contract: 10:$8M, 11:$10M, 12:$10M. Maybe the Sox could even subsidize it (very expensive move for the Sox, but still...plus, subsidizing Matsuzaka for the next two years would be balanced by the fact that Gonzalez has a very cheap contract the next two years).

Reddick - fills their OF hole I just referred to

Bard - stud reliever, could be utterly dominant for them

Lars Anderson - rough year this past year, but has lots of potential to ultimately fill the hole at 1b for them

So that's two major leaguers and two minor leaguers. Would this be enough to get the job done? If it is, would you do it? For me, the answer would be Yes. But this only highlights why not getting Teixeira is such a big deal...they *theoretically* could have gotten him for just $$....instead, they'll have to shell out huge talent just to fill that 1b hole. Oh well. If they made this move, they put Youk at 3b, Gonzalez at 1b, and you have a dynamic corner IF tandem for years to come. Replacing Bard might be difficult, but they have guys like Casey Kelly in the minors who could possibly play that role. Losing Dice-K hurts as well, but the Sox still have the trio of Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz to build a rotation around. I'm ok with that.

So would you do that? Would San Diego?

[EllisTheRimMan]

Now, what would San Diego want in return? I'm guessing four major pieces (a combo of major leaguers and top-shelf minor league prospects).
1. They'd need a 1b to replace Gonzalez.
2. They need pitching - Peavy got traded this past year.
3. They could use an outfielder - Headley is young and pretty decent; Gwynn as well. But that 3rd OF spot is manned by Brian Giles and Will Venable.

Ok, so what package would be *REALISTIC*? Here's my suggested package:

Matsuzaka - would thrive in that ballpark, even can hit, just 28 years of age, pitched well down the stretch this year, and has a reasonable contract...the Sox, not the Padres, are on the hook for the posting fee. Here's his contract: 10:$8M, 11:$10M, 12:$10M. Maybe the Sox could even subsidize it (very expensive move for the Sox, but still...plus, subsidizing Matsuzaka for the next two years would be balanced by the fact that Gonzalez has a very cheap contract the next two years).

Reddick - fills their OF hole I just referred to

Bard - stud reliever, could be utterly dominant for them

Lars Anderson - rough year this past year, but has lots of potential to ultimately fill the hole at 1b for them

So that's two major leaguers and two minor leaguers. Would this be enough to get the job done? If it is, would you do it? For me, the answer would be Yes. But this only highlights why not getting Teixeira is such a big deal...they *theoretically* could have gotten him for just $$....instead, they'll have to shell out huge talent just to fill that 1b hole. Oh well. If they made this move, they put Youk at 3b, Gonzalez at 1b, and you have a dynamic corner IF tandem for years to come. Replacing Bard might be difficult, but they have guys like Casey Kelly in the minors who could possibly play that role. Losing Dice-K hurts as well, but the Sox still have the trio of Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz to build a rotation around. I'm ok with that.

So would you do that? Would San Diego?

That's a whole lot of talent. I think SD would need to think very hard about a package like that. Then again, so would the Sox. I think you'd be selling way low on DiceK given his injury/struggles this year, so this may not be the ideal time to move him.

The other way to go would be decrease the quality/quantity of the package and to take on a SD bad contract if they have any al la the Mike Lowell acquisition. This assumes there would be at least some role for this player on the Sox 25 man roster.

[Puffy]

Ok, so what package would be *REALISTIC*? Here's my suggested package:

Matsuzaka - would thrive in that ballpark, even can hit, just 28 years of age, pitched well down the stretch this year, and has a reasonable contract...the Sox, not the Padres, are on the hook for the posting fee. Here's his contract: 10:$8M, 11:$10M, 12:$10M. Maybe the Sox could even subsidize it (very expensive move for the Sox, but still...plus, subsidizing Matsuzaka for the next two years would be balanced by the fact that Gonzalez has a very cheap contract the next two years).

Reddick - fills their OF hole I just referred to

Bard - stud reliever, could be utterly dominant for them

Lars Anderson - rough year this past year, but has lots of potential to ultimately fill the hole at 1b for them

So that's two major leaguers and two minor leaguers. Would this be enough to get the job done? If it is, would you do it? For me, the answer would be Yes. But this only highlights why not getting Teixeira is such a big deal...they *theoretically* could have gotten him for just $$....instead, they'll have to shell out huge talent just to fill that 1b hole. Oh well. If they made this move, they put Youk at 3b, Gonzalez at 1b, and you have a dynamic corner IF tandem for years to come. Replacing Bard might be difficult, but they have guys like Casey Kelly in the minors who could possibly play that role. Losing Dice-K hurts as well, but the Sox still have the trio of Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz to build a rotation around. I'm ok with that.

So would you do that? Would San Diego?

If I'm the Padres, here's my response:

Thanks for the offer, but we're not really interested in Matsuzaka. Give us Buchholz instead and we can start a conversation. I like Bard and those other two guys (Reddick and Anderson), although we like Kalish, Kelley, and Westmoreland a little bit better. If you really want to give us a Japanese pitcher, we'll take Tazawa. Anyway, I'm sure among those names we can work out a package for Adrian. Keep in mind, we're in a rebuilding process and are looking at cutting payroll and acquiring younger cost controlled players. But please keep Matsuzaka.

[Puffy]

The other way to go would be decrease the quality/quantity of the package and to take on a SD bad contract if they have any al la the Mike Lowell acquisition. This assumes there would be at least some role for this player on the Sox 25 man roster.

If I'm San Diego:

We don't really have any bad contracts. Thank goodness Brian Giles is off the books. Adrian costs us a lot and Heath Bell is going to cost us a couple of million in arbitration, but hey, they're worth more than what they are going to get paid and we can just trade them for prospects if we really need that money off the books.

Actually, since you brought it up, how about taking Chris Young and his contract ($6.25 million + $8.00 million 2011 option) off our hands. He was great in 2007 and I'm sure that this year's labrum surgery went well. He should be ready to pitch in 2010 (fingers crossed), when he turns 31. I'm sure his frayed labrum will give you a couple of good years. Penny and Smoltz worked well for you in '09, maybe he can be your #5 starter for part of the season. We're not going to discount him much though, because he was damn good in 2007.

[ivanvamp]

If I'm San Diego:

We don't really have any bad contracts. Thank goodness Brian Giles is off the books. Adrian costs us a lot and Heath Bell is going to cost us a couple of million in arbitration, but hey, they're worth more than what they are going to get paid and we can just trade them for prospects if we really need that money off the books.

Actually, since you brought it up, how about taking Chris Young and his contract ($6.25 million + $8.00 million 2011 option) off our hands. He was great in 2007 and I'm sure that this year's labrum surgery went well. He should be ready to pitch in 2010 (fingers crossed), when he turns 31. I'm sure his frayed labrum will give you a couple of good years. Penny and Smoltz worked well for you in '09, maybe he can be your #5 starter for part of the season. We're not going to discount him much though, because he was damn good in 2007.

If the Sox could deal Lars, Bard, and, say, Kalish and get Young and Gonzalez in return, I'd be very happy to pay that if I'm the Sox. He (Young) only costs $6.25 million in 2010, and if he stinks, simply decline the 2011 option. But if he pitches well....bonus!

[ivanvamp]

If I'm the Padres, here's my response:

Thanks for the offer, but we're not really interested in Matsuzaka. Give us Buchholz instead and we can start a conversation. I like Bard and those other two guys (Reddick and Anderson), although we like Kalish, Kelley, and Westmoreland a little bit better. If you really want to give us a Japanese pitcher, we'll take Tazawa. Anyway, I'm sure among those names we can work out a package for Adrian. Keep in mind, we're in a rebuilding process and are looking at cutting payroll and acquiring younger cost controlled players. But please keep Matsuzaka.

I think the Sox would have to thing long and hard about Buchholz. If SD says we will not deal Gonzo without getting Clay back, then I say at *most* it could be a Clay+B-level prospect for Gonzalez. Nothing more. Then use the rest of your chips that didn't go to SD in order to get Felix Hernandez, if at all possible.

[Synovia]

I think the Sox would have to thing long and hard about Buchholz. If SD says we will not deal Gonzo without getting Clay back, then I say at *most* it could be a Clay+B-level prospect for Gonzalez. Nothing more. Then use the rest of your chips that didn't go to SD in order to get Felix Hernandez, if at all possible.

I agree.

They've waited this long with Clay being untouchable, and he finally seems to get it. IMO, hes more valuable right now than hes ever been.

I don't think you trade away a top of the line cost controlled starter.

[mcpickl]

Now, what would San Diego want in return? I'm guessing four major pieces (a combo of major leaguers and top-shelf minor league prospects).
1. They'd need a 1b to replace Gonzalez.
2. They need pitching - Peavy got traded this past year.
3. They could use an outfielder - Headley is young and pretty decent; Gwynn as well. But that 3rd OF spot is manned by Brian Giles and Will Venable.

Ok, so what package would be *REALISTIC*? Here's my suggested package:

Matsuzaka - would thrive in that ballpark, even can hit, just 28 years of age, pitched well down the stretch this year, and has a reasonable contract...the Sox, not the Padres, are on the hook for the posting fee. Here's his contract: 10:$8M, 11:$10M, 12:$10M. Maybe the Sox could even subsidize it (very expensive move for the Sox, but still...plus, subsidizing Matsuzaka for the next two years would be balanced by the fact that Gonzalez has a very cheap contract the next two years).

Reddick - fills their OF hole I just referred to

Bard - stud reliever, could be utterly dominant for them

Lars Anderson - rough year this past year, but has lots of potential to ultimately fill the hole at 1b for them

So that's two major leaguers and two minor leaguers. Would this be enough to get the job done? If it is, would you do it? For me, the answer would be Yes. But this only highlights why not getting Teixeira is such a big deal...they *theoretically* could have gotten him for just $....instead, they'll have to shell out huge talent just to fill that 1b hole. Oh well. If they made this move, they put Youk at 3b, Gonzalez at 1b, and you have a dynamic corner IF tandem for years to come. Replacing Bard might be difficult, but they have guys like Casey Kelly in the minors who could possibly play that role. Losing Dice-K hurts as well, but the Sox still have the trio of Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz to build a rotation around. I'm ok with that.

So would you do that? Would San Diego?

If San Diego moved Gonzalez, they wouldn't need a 1B back. They would have Kyle Blanks to step in there. He played some OF this year, but that was just out of necessity because Gonzalez had 1B. They would definitely want to move a guy listed at 285 lbs. back to first.

Can't see DiceK being involved either, on either end. Don't see SD wanting to take a guy making money or the Sox willing to give up on him after one lost year.

I can't see SD doing the deal without both Buchholz and Bard both being in. Then probably still two more guys from the Kelly/Westmoreland/Reddick/Kalish variety.

[nighthob]

If San Diego moved Gonzalez, they wouldn't need a 1B back. They would have Kyle Blanks to step in there. He played some OF this year, but that was just out of necessity because Gonzalez had 1B. They would definitely want to move a guy listed at 285 lbs. back to first.

Can't see DiceK being involved either, on either end. Don't see SD wanting to take a guy making money or the Sox willing to give up on him after one lost year.

I can't see SD doing the deal without both Buchholz and Bard both being in. Then probably still two more guys from the Kelly/Westmoreland/Reddick/Kalish variety.

You may as well just say that "San Diego won't deal Gonzalez under any realistic circumstances" as no major league team is giving up a frontline starter, a major league reliever with star closer potential, and two top minor league prospects (and I'm referring to Westmoreland/Kelly as they're arguably top 25 prospects) for him.

[ivanvamp]

You may as well just say that "San Diego won't deal Gonzalez under any realistic circumstances" as no major league team is giving up a frontline starter, a major league reliever with star closer potential, and two top minor league prospects (and I'm referring to Westmoreland/Kelly as they're arguably top 25 prospects) for him.

Right. The premise of this thread was the rumor that Gonzalez would be on the trading block this offseason. If SD is going to say that they would only trade him if they got ridiculous and unrealistic stuff back, then he's not really on the market.

My proposed package may not be what SD is looking for...hence I would love to know what everyone here thinks. But any deal has to make sense for both sides. I thought what I suggested did make sense, but I forgot about Blanks. So maybe you include Lowrie instead of Lars, since they're weak in the middle infield.

[EllisTheRimMan]

If San Diego moved Gonzalez, they wouldn't need a 1B back. They would have Kyle Blanks to step in there. He played some OF this year, but that was just out of necessity because Gonzalez had 1B. They would definitely want to move a guy listed at 285 lbs. back to first.

This is 100% correct

Can't see DiceK being involved either, on either end. Don't see SD wanting to take a guy making money or the Sox willing to give up on him after one lost year.

I think this illustrates a common misconception when discussing trades. It's not like the Sox would be "giving up" on DiceK... they would giving him up. To get a player like a Gonzalez, you will need to part with talent. That's not like giving up on someone because you think they are going to suck going forward. That's saying here is a player or players we actually value very highly and we believe this is a fair exchange for your player or players we value just as highly but they fit our team better right now.

Giving up on a player would be what happened in the Renteria, Lugo and Manny trades.

I can't see SD doing the deal without both Buchholz and Bard both being in. Then probably still two more guys from the Kelly/Westmoreland/Reddick/Kalish variety.

Basically, you see a Gonzalez acquisition as a pipedream then? I can't say I disagree. Any interest on the board in Miguel Cabrera?

[nighthob]

Right. The premise of this thread was the rumor that Gonzalez would be on the trading block this offseason. If SD is going to say that they would only trade him if they got ridiculous and unrealistic stuff back, then he's not really on the market.

My proposed package may not be what SD is looking for...hence I would love to know what everyone here thinks. But any deal has to make sense for both sides. I thought what I suggested did make sense, but I forgot about Blanks. So maybe you include Lowrie instead of Lars, since they're weak in the middle infield.

I do think they might have interest in Lowrie. You would need to make it Kalish rather than Reddick, I think (because I'm fairly certain that most value Kalish more, and I'm assuming that Jed does). I do think Tazawa makes more sense for them than Dice-K. Bard, I think, makes it a deal. If he develops a reliable third pitch he's a potential top of the rotation starter. Even without one he has star closer written all over him. They might need to include Bowden, as well, to make it work. Eating Chris Young's deal would no doubt help.

I suppose if they were getting really prospect hungry, you could try and swing a three way with Papelbon going to Philly and prospects to San Diego, though Boston would need to insist on Heath Bell under that set of circumstances.

[Mike in CT]

The Red Sox simply cannot include Buchholz in a trade for a bat. Even for Adrian Gonzalez.

Every time someone has a trade idea using Buchholz to acquire a bat, there should be a big blinking neon sign that says "Josh Beckett is walking out the door in 12 months".

Someone has to help Lester carry the pitching staff beyond 2010.


If you want to talk Buchholz + for Felix Hernandez or a comparable pitcher, fine.

If you are going to talk Buchholz + for a bat, you are going to have to show how the starting pitching staff will not end up as Lester, Matsuzaka, and a pile of shit 15 months from now. (and no, you cannot project Casey Kelly to the MLB staff)

[ivanvamp]

This is 100% correct





I think this illustrates a common misconception when discussing trades. It's not like the Sox would be "giving up" on DiceK... they would giving him up. To get a player like a Gonzalez, you will need to part with talent. That's not like giving up on someone because you think they are going to suck going forward. That's saying here is a player or players we actually value very highly and we believe this is a fair exchange for your player or players we value just as highly but they fit our team better right now.

Giving up on a player would be what happened in the Renteria, Lugo and Manny trades.



Basically, you see a Gonzalez acquisition as a pipedream then? I can't say I disagree. Any interest on the board in Miguel Cabrera?

Again, my premise starting this thread was the rumor that AGonz was definitely going on the trade market. If that's true, then it cannot be considered a "pipe dream"...doesn't mean it will happen, but it does mean it's worth discussing.

Agree, btw, on your point above regarding "giving up" a player versus "giving up on" a player.

And, yes, I'd be interested in Miguel Cabrera as an alternative to Adrian Gonzalez. I suspect the Tigers, being financially strapped perhaps even worse than the Padres at least in the present economic climate, would take less in return to get rid of that large contract. His alcohol issue last week certainly didn't help.

Here are these guys' respective per 162-game career numbers (per baseball-reference.com):

Gonzalez - 598 ab, 93 r, 168 h, 36 2b, 2 3b, 32 hr, 98 rbi, .281/.362/.506/.869, 133 ops+
Cabrera - 611 ab, 98 r, 190 h, 39 2b, 2 3b, 33 hr, 117 rbi, .311/.383/.542/.925, 141 ops+

And this past year's #'s:

Gonzalez (age 27) - 552 ab, 90 r, 153 h, 27 2b, 2 3b, 40 hr, 99 rbi, .277/.407/.551/.958, 163 ops+
Cabrera (age 26) - 611 ab, 96 r, 198 h, 34 2b, 0 3b, 34 hr, 103 rbi, .324/.396/.547/.942, 143 ops+

So Gonzalez has a little more raw power, but Cabrera is a little better overall hitter. Both can rake, though. Cabrera is a little younger, but his contract is much, much bigger:

Gonzalez: 10:$4.75M, 11:$5.5M club option (no buyout)
Cabrera: 10:$20M, 11:$20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M, 15:$22M

So yeah, that's quite a financial commitment to Cabrera. I know that Gonzalez, once he hits free agency after the 2011 season, will probably make in the Cabrera range, but for 2010-11, the cost for Cabrera is $40 million compared with just $10.25 million for Gonzalez. That extra $30 million can buy something very significant over the next 2 years, I'm sure.

[EllisTheRimMan]

Again, my premise starting this thread was the rumor that AGonz was definitely going on the trade market. If that's true, then it cannot be considered a "pipe dream"...doesn't mean it will happen, but it does mean it's worth discussing.

Agree, btw, on your point above regarding "giving up" a player versus "giving up on" a player.

And, yes, I'd be interested in Miguel Cabrera as an alternative to Adrian Gonzalez. I suspect the Tigers, being financially strapped perhaps even worse than the Padres at least in the present economic climate, would take less in return to get rid of that large contract. His alcohol issue last week certainly didn't help.

Here are these guys' respective per 162-game career numbers (per baseball-reference.com):

Gonzalez - 598 ab, 93 r, 168 h, 36 2b, 2 3b, 32 hr, 98 rbi, .281/.362/.506/.869, 133 ops+
Cabrera - 611 ab, 98 r, 190 h, 39 2b, 2 3b, 33 hr, 117 rbi, .311/.383/.542/.925, 141 ops+

And this past year's #'s:

Gonzalez (age 27) - 552 ab, 90 r, 153 h, 27 2b, 2 3b, 40 hr, 99 rbi, .277/.407/.551/.958, 163 ops+
Cabrera (age 26) - 611 ab, 96 r, 198 h, 34 2b, 0 3b, 34 hr, 103 rbi, .324/.396/.547/.942, 143 ops+

So Gonzalez has a little more raw power, but Cabrera is a little better overall hitter. Both can rake, though. Cabrera is a little younger, but his contract is much, much bigger:

Gonzalez: 10:$4.75M, 11:$5.5M club option (no buyout)
Cabrera: 10:$20M, 11:$20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M, 15:$22M

So yeah, that's quite a financial commitment to Cabrera. I know that Gonzalez, once he hits free agency after the 2011 season, will probably make in the Cabrera range, but for 2010-11, the cost for Cabrera is $40 million compared with just $10.25 million for Gonzalez. That extra $30 million can buy something very significant over the next 2 years, I'm sure.

That's basically, Manny Ramirez/Teixiera money... which the team has already showed a willingness/ability to spend for the right player.

So, yes, the money is the key difference along with conditioning/defense. The trade off is the cost in talent that would be needed to acquire either. I prefer Gonzalez by alot, but given all the tail winds potentially blowing Cabrera out of Detroit a more conservative package of prospects might do the trick. Again, taking on a bad Detroit contract might allow the Sox to tease the asking price down even further.

I'm actually very intrigued by Cabrera now... even though I prefer Gonzalez way more.

[mattymatty]

If San Diego is going to give up Gonzalez it will be for young top flight cheap talent. They don't want Dice-K and the Red Sox aren't going to want eat the remaining $30M on his deal in order to include him. It just doesn't make sense for either side.

Like it or not, Buchholz a is much more realistic option (and I don't like it). Teams like San Diego need to show something in return if they are giving up their best player, and Buchholz would be that guy. Bard might qualify too, although whomever is going to run the show in San Diego is likely to understand that relievers aren't nearly as valuable as starters, and this goes doubly for Petco Park.

If the Sox are going to acquire Gonzalez (or Cabrera, or King Felix, or Prince) they're going to have to give up premium cost controlled talent. Westmoreland, and Buchholz to start. Or Kelly, Pimental, Anderson, and Bard. And maybe more. It makes me uneasy to look at a list like that, but that's the reality. If it took Masterson (a talented young pitcher at the MLB level), and two high quality highly drafted arms to get a year and a third of V-Mart, it'll take the proverbial farm to get a really top of the line player.

This isn't an argument for or against it, but trade suggestions that include players you don't want (Lowrie) or like (Dice-K) for players every team in the league would like just aren't worth discussing.

EDIT: clarity

Edited by mattymatty, 13 October 2009 - 12:45 PM.

[ivanvamp]

If San Diego is going to give up Gonzalez it will be for young top flight cheap talent. They don't want Dice-K and the Red Sox aren't going to want eat the remaining $30M on his deal in order to include him. It just doesn't make sense for either side.

Like it or not, Buchholz a is much more realistic option (and I don't like it). Teams like San Diego need to show something in return if they are giving up their best player, and Buchholz would be that guy. Bard might qualify too, although whomever is going to run the show in San Diego is likely to understand that relievers aren't nearly as valuable as starters, and this goes doubly for Petco Park.

If the Sox are going to acquire Gonzalez (or Cabrera, or King Felix, or Prince) they're going to have to give up premium cost controlled talent. Westmoreland, and Buchholz to start. Or Kelly, Pimental, Anderson, and Bard. And maybe more. It makes me uneasy to look at a list like that, but that's the reality. If it took Masterson (a talented young pitcher at the MLB level), and two high quality highly drafted arms to get a year and a third of V-Mart, it'll take the proverbial farm to get a really top of the line player.

This isn't an argument for or against it, but trade suggestions that include players you don't want (Lowrie) or like (Dice-K) for players every team in the league would like just aren't worth discussing.

EDIT: clarity

See, I'm not saying it won't take a lot to get Cabrera...but I think it will take a lot less to get Cabrera than it will to get Gonzalez. Bard, Bowden, Lars, and Westmoreland might be enough to get it done for Cabrera (which is still quite a package). The key is that Detroit is in pretty big financial trouble (from what I've read and heard) and that contract of his is *massive*. To get a MLB-ready starter in Bowden, a potential stud reliever in Bard, their 1b of the future in Lars, and an OF with huge upside in Westmoreland would be a lot to get back. Plus they get TONS of payroll relief. None of us know what opposing GM's (or even our own GM) would be willing to do, but that might be sufficient.

Would you do that deal: Bard, Bowden, Lars, Westmoreland for Miguel Cabrera?

[EllisTheRimMan]

See, I'm not saying it won't take a lot to get Cabrera...but I think it will take a lot less to get Cabrera than it will to get Gonzalez. Bard, Bowden, Lars, and Westmoreland might be enough to get it done for Cabrera (which is still quite a package). The key is that Detroit is in pretty big financial trouble (from what I've read and heard) and that contract of his is *massive*. To get a MLB-ready starter in Bowden, a potential stud reliever in Bard, their 1b of the future in Lars, and an OF with huge upside in Westmoreland would be a lot to get back. Plus they get TONS of payroll relief. None of us know what opposing GM's (or even our own GM) would be willing to do, but that might be sufficient.

Would you do that deal: Bard, Bowden, Lars, Westmoreland for Miguel Cabrera?

Cabrera is severely limited in the field, has poor conditioning and so you may be looking at $20MM/year for a DH going forward, but I do believe he could be had for alot less than Gonzalez. Is there any chance that Cabrera could still play LF in Fenway, because then you could rotate him through 1B, LF and DH to maximize his AB's and minimize his defensive liabilities.

Trading Buchholz with Beckett likely out the door in 2011 is a non-starter if you're just bringing back a bat. That makes the Sox entirely too reliant on DiceK. Anyone who wants to insist that Buchholz must be included to get some of the hitters we're discussing is potentially correct, but I just don't see the Sox going that way. In 2011 with Buchholz gone our rotation is: Lester, Daisuke, ???, ??? and ???.

Given that Bay may command $15MM over 5, I hardly think Cabrera would be a massive overpay... depending on the package it took to get him.

[ivanvamp]

Cabrera is severely limited in the field, has poor conditioning and so you may be looking at $20MM/year for a DH going forward, but I do believe he could be had for alot less than Gonzalez. Is there any chance that Cabrera could still play LF in Fenway, because then you could rotate him through 1B, LF and DH to maximize his AB's and minimize his defensive liabilities.

Trading Buchholz with Beckett likely out the door in 2011 is a non-starter if you're just bringing back a bat. That makes the Sox entirely too reliant on DiceK. Anyone who wants to insist that Buchholz must be included to get some of the hitters we're discussing is potentially correct, but I just don't see the Sox going that way. In 2011 with Buchholz gone our rotation is: Lester, Daisuke, ???, ??? and ???.

Given that Bay may command $15MM over 5, I hardly think Cabrera would be a massive overpay... depending on the package it took to get him.

Why do you think that Beckett is "likely out the door" in 2011?

[EllisTheRimMan]

Why do you think that Beckett is "likely out the door" in 2011?

Because it is his first stab at FA and he will likely be seeking and be offered a Sabathia type deal by multiple teams. I don't think the Sox will match.

[ivanvamp]

Because it is his first stab at FA and he will likely be seeking and be offered a Sabathia type deal by multiple teams. I don't think the Sox will match.

I think the Sox will do everything possible to sign him. They may try to sign him to a long-term deal before he hits free agency.

[EllisTheRimMan]

If San Diego is going to give up Gonzalez it will be for young top flight cheap talent. They don't want Dice-K and the Red Sox aren't going to want eat the remaining $30M on his deal in order to include him. It just doesn't make sense for either side.

Like it or not, Buchholz a is much more realistic option (and I don't like it). Teams like San Diego need to show something in return if they are giving up their best player, and Buchholz would be that guy. Bard might qualify too, although whomever is going to run the show in San Diego is likely to understand that relievers aren't nearly as valuable as starters, and this goes doubly for Petco Park.

If the Sox are going to acquire Gonzalez (or Cabrera, or King Felix, or Prince) they're going to have to give up premium cost controlled talent. Westmoreland, and Buchholz to start. Or Kelly, Pimental, Anderson, and Bard. And maybe more. It makes me uneasy to look at a list like that, but that's the reality. If it took Masterson (a talented young pitcher at the MLB level), and two high quality highly drafted arms to get a year and a third of V-Mart, it'll take the proverbial farm to get a really top of the line player.

This isn't an argument for or against it, but trade suggestions that include players you don't want (Lowrie) or like (Dice-K) for players every team in the league would like just aren't worth discussing.

EDIT: clarity

Masterson is no Clay Buchholz and Hagadone et al. don't equal Bard. I was actually encouraged by how little the Sox gave up to get V-mart. I agree, though, getting Gonzalez will likely take Buck + a gutting of the farm. Cabrera is a very different story I believe.

Therefore, my answer to the thread topic is NO, Adrian Gonzalez is not a realistic option. For the package SD will likely be seeking, you might as well aim higher and go for Hanley Ramirez.

[EllisTheRimMan]

I think the Sox will do everything possible to sign him. They may try to sign him to a long-term deal before he hits free agency.

I don't... I think they let him walk because he's getting up there in age and will want a prohibitive contract both in terms of AAV and years... like I said... think Sabathia type money.

[mattymatty]

I'm confident that the Sox can re-sign Josh Beckett if they want to. I think Beckett likes Boston (I've never heard different) and I know he has great respect for the team's medical professionals and front office. Also, he's not a Boras client so he's likely to be semi-reasonable.

I'd prefer to have Gonzalez rather than Cabrera, though I'm a big fan of both. But the cost is going to be massive. Because of the fact that both players are young and really productive there are going to be multiple teams who will try to acquire them if either is put on the market. Think the Mets don't want Cabrera (though God knows what they'd give up for him - I'm not even sure they have minor league franchises anymore).

I agree with Ellis below, if the Sox are going to deal Buchholz they're going to have to do it after ensuring the rotation isn't screwed by doing so. Resigning Beckett would allow them to make such a deal, presumably.

As for the Bard, Bowden, Lars, Westmoreland for Cabrera? I don't think so. But I'm on the stingy side when it comes to dealing prospects. I'd be more inclined to include Kelly and hold on to Westmoreland. Everything I read about him says he's incredible. Bard is a reliever so unless the Sox have plans on switching him to starting (which has been mentioned here once or twice) I don't see him being a huge chip in the process. Bowden is young, but it doesn't seem he has much of a ceiling, so that limits his value as well.

The problem with dealing Lars now is you're dealing him when his value is down. If he has a good year in '10 then he'll bring lots more in trade, or potentially be that impact bat we're discussing trading for now (wouldn't that be nice?). Then again, if he has a crappy year next season he'll be valueless. It'll be interesting to see whether the Sox think he's primed to rebound or if they try to deal him off to get something in return for him.

Just my two cents...

[mattymatty]

Masterson is no Clay Buchholz and Hagadone et al. don't equal Bard. I was actually encouraged by how little the Sox gave up to get V-mart. I agree, though, getting Gonzalez will likely take Buck + a gutting of the farm. Cabrera is a very different story I believe.

Therefore, my answer to the thread topic is NO, Adrian Gonzalez is not a realistic option. For the package SD will likely be seeking, you might as well aim higher and go for Hanley Ramirez.

I would LOVE to get Hanley, and I think the Sox should focus their off season around attempting to acquire him. But that's not the topic of this thread, so I digress.

I think we have different opinions of Hagadone. Yes he had TJ surgery, but he absolutely dominated before that, and pitched pretty well after wards too. He's a lefty and from what I've read he throws very had, like Lester hard. A guy like that is very valuable and I guarantee the Sox didn't trade him lightly.

[Puffy]

If you're Theo, I think you'd have to kick the tires on Miguel Cabrera, before you sell the farm for Adrian Gonzalez. With the way the Tiger's season ended, and the headlines Cabrera made at the same time, you'd have to think there would be some discount. He's already being paid a ton:

10:$20M, 11:$20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M, 15:$22M

over the next 6 years, which should be his prime years. I don't think that there would be many teams that could add that payroll. With that kind of dollar commitment, he'd have to come cheaper than Adrian Gonzalez in terms of prospects. It certainly could be done without Buchholz, I'd think, although Bard, Bowden, Anderson, and company would all be in the picture.

I think the pool of potential buyers for Adrian Gonzalez would be far greater, due to his favorable contract. I could see a team like, say, the Seattle Mariners taking a flyer on Gonzalez for the next 2 years and then trading him down the road if they can't contend and can't extend him. I could see a lot of borderline teams who want to make a run in 2010 and 2011 going for Adrian.

Cabrera on the other hand would be cost prohibitive for almost all teams in baseball. Sure, there might be some suitors who could afford it (Mets, Tigers, etc), but not all could put a nice package of prospects together like the Sox could.

I think he fits in well for the Sox. He is 27 years old and controlled until age 32. He held his own at 1B this year (UZR +3.4) which was basically his second year at 1B full time. He has some flexibility so that he could play 3B or LF in a pinch. Frankly, I don't see his defense being that much worse than Bay out there. I'd start him at 1B and then eventually could slot him in at DH if his defense becomes that much of a liability. He's a strong right-handed option who could slot right in the heard of that lineup.

Are there character issues there that the Red Sox could iron out - maybe with mentors like Papi, Victor Martinez, & Beckett?

[nighthob]

If the Sox are going to acquire Gonzalez (or Cabrera, or King Felix, or Prince) they're going to have to give up premium cost controlled talent. Westmoreland, and Buchholz to start. Or Kelly, Pimental, Anderson, and Bard. And maybe more.

You need to study the subjective theory of value. Or at the very least understand that you only need to be the second slowest guy to get away from the angry bear.

As for Cabrera, there won't be a long line of teams lining up for him because of that deal. The line will basically be New York & Boston (and not the Mets, the Wilpons are broke, they're not taking on that contract unless the Tigers are subsidising it). All Boston has to offer is more than the Yankees. And if the MFYs get Cabrera, that leaves Boston with a wide open shot at Matt Holiday. So it's a win/win.

Edited by nighthob, 13 October 2009 - 02:28 PM.

[mattymatty]

You need to study the subjective theory of value. Or at the very least understand that you only need to be the second slowest guy to get away from the angry bear.

I don't honestly have any idea what you are talking about. And maybe I'm reading too much into the tone of your post, but have I been rude to you? If so I'm sorry.

As for Cabrera, there won't be a long line of teams lining up for him because of that deal. The line will basically be New York & Boston (and not the Mets, the Wilpons are broke, they're not taking on that contract unless the Tigers are subsidising it). All Boston has to offer is more than the Yankees. And if the MFYs get Cabrera, that leaves Boston with a wide open shot at Matt Holiday. So it's a win/win.

You're assuming incorrectly that the Tigers have to trade Cabrera. They don't. They can hold on to him if they don't like what is being offered.

You are also underestimating, I believe, the market. There are numerous teams that could be in the market for Cabrera and could afford his contract. The Mets and Yankees could (though I have no idea where the Yankees would stash him as I doubt he wants to DH), Philadelphia should they elect to deal Ryan Howard, Seattle has spots open, as does Baltimore, Toronto (I think), the Cubs with Lee a free agent after next season, the Nationals (who you recall tried very hard to get Teixeira last off season), the White Sox are run by a mad man so you never know what they'll do... blah blah blah.

[kneemoe]

You need to study the subjective theory of value. Or at the very least understand that you only need to be the second slowest guy to get away from the angry bear.

As for Cabrera, there won't be a long line of teams lining up for him because of that deal. The line will basically be New York & Boston (and not the Mets, the Wilpons are broke, they're not taking on that contract unless the Tigers are subsidising it). All Boston has to offer is more than the Yankees. And if the MFYs get Cabrera, that leaves Boston with a wide open shot at Matt Holiday. So it's a win/win.

Where would the Yankees put Cabrera? They're going to have the DH slot full for about as long as anyone can forecast, they just signed a guy thats going to play 1st for the next decade... I don't see the big bad Yankees getting in the way there.

The only question is, will Detroit actually try to move Miggy? If they're willing I think Theo will figure out a way to make it happen without gutting the farm (which will be far less than trying to trade for A-Gon, who I'd love to see play for the Sox, but if they're both on the market I think the FO plays it smart and goes with the guy thats already signed long term and proven he can mash in the AL, and who wont cost nearly as much b/c of his long term, big $$ commitment)

But Puffy, he's not playing LF ever again.

Edited by kneemoe, 13 October 2009 - 10:03 PM.

[Puffy]

As for Cabrera, there won't be a long line of teams lining up for him because of that deal. The line will basically be New York & Boston (and not the Mets, the Wilpons are broke, they're not taking on that contract unless the Tigers are subsidising it). All Boston has to offer is more than the Yankees. And if the MFYs get Cabrera, that leaves Boston with a wide open shot at Matt Holiday. So it's a win/win.

I agree.

What if the Sox have the choice between Holliday and Cabrera? Cabrera would cost money and prospects, probably has a better bat but worse defense. Holliday would only cost money (and a draft pick which the Sox could get back if they let Bay go) is older, has a questionable track record in the AL, but plays a position of need with superior defense than the last 2 incumbents.

Holliday would probably be tied up past his prime, say age 30 - 35, and might command a salary near Cabrera's (pushing towards $20 million per year). Cabrera has his age 27 - 32 seasons to offer.

Where would the Yankees play Cabrera, though? DH or LF? There are probably a couple of other big market teams who might get involved, but the Sox really have the chips to fill some needs for the Tigers. I think this is actually shaping up to be a bit of a buyer's market out there for players past arbitration.

[nighthob]

I don't honestly have any idea what you are talking about.

There is no absolute scale of value. Everything's worth is determined by what other people are willing to pay for it. Simply put no one is going to offer the Padres a front of the rotation starter, a killer set-up man and future star closer, and two top 25 minor league prospects for A-Gon. AG's value will be whatever another team is willing to pay for him, not some system of theoretical equal value. That being said, due to the contract he's worth considerably more than Cabrera

You're assuming incorrectly that the Tigers have to trade Cabrera. They don't. They can hold on to him if they don't like what is being offered.

The stories of the Tigers' financial woes are already circulating, and as great as Cabrera is there are other players coming up that they need to think about (Verlander for one). If they're not moving Cabrera, then they need to move someone else.

You are also underestimating, I believe, the market. There are numerous teams that could be in the market for Cabrera and could afford his contract. The Mets and Yankees could (though I have no idea where the Yankees would stash him as I doubt he wants to DH), Philadelphia should they elect to deal Ryan Howard, Seattle has spots open, as does Baltimore, Toronto (I think), the Cubs with Lee a free agent after next season, the Nationals (who you recall tried very hard to get Teixeira last off season), the White Sox are run by a mad man so you never know what they'll do... blah blah blah.

The Cubs are in bankruptcy and the new owners are about to lay out $900 million for the franchise and its assets. I don't think increasing the payroll is at the top of their priority list. The Mets owners lost hundreds of millions to Bernie Madoff and the team's payroll is already pretty heavy. Don't count on them getting into the bidding for Cabrera, they'd have a lot more interest in A-Gon. The Blue Jays are still cutting salary, they're not in the market for a new $21 million/year player. There just aren't a lot of options for the Tigers if they want to unload Cabrera's salary in its entirety. Sure, if they're picking up 25%-33% of the price tag, the market expands considerably. I just don't think that they're willing to pay $30-$40 million for a couple of extra prospects. I think they'd rather just take what they can get from the limited market and get out from under the contract.

[ivanvamp]

You need to study the subjective theory of value. Or at the very least understand that you only need to be the second slowest guy to get away from the angry bear.

As for Cabrera, there won't be a long line of teams lining up for him because of that deal. The line will basically be New York & Boston (and not the Mets, the Wilpons are broke, they're not taking on that contract unless the Tigers are subsidising it). All Boston has to offer is more than the Yankees. And if the MFYs get Cabrera, that leaves Boston with a wide open shot at Matt Holiday. So it's a win/win.

Where on earth would the Yankees put Cabrera? Last I checked, 1b and 3b are pretty well spoken for in that organization, and Cabrera really isn't an outfielder.

[nighthob]

Where would the Yankees put Cabrera? They're going to have the DH slot full for about as long as anyone can forecast, they just signed a guy thats going to play 1st for the next decade... I don't see the big bad Yankees getting in the way there.

I agree he shouldn't ever be playing LF ever again. But that would never stop the Yankees from trying him there. My real dream, though, is that the MFYs sign Bay to an outrageous deal to stick it to Boston. I would like nothing better than to see him patrolling left in the tidy bowl and then making those mystery throws to the infield.

[EllisTheRimMan]

I agree.

What if the Sox have the choice between Holliday and Cabrera? Cabrera would cost money and prospects, probably has a better bat but worse defense. Holliday would only cost money (and a draft pick which the Sox could get back if they let Bay go) is older, has a questionable track record in the AL, but plays a position of need with superior defense than the last 2 incumbents.

Holliday would probably be tied up past his prime, say age 30 - 35, and might command a salary near Cabrera's (pushing towards $20 million per year). Cabrera has his age 27 - 32 seasons to offer.

Where would the Yankees play Cabrera, though? DH or LF? There are probably a couple of other big market teams who might get involved, but the Sox really have the chips to fill some needs for the Tigers. I think this is actually shaping up to be a bit of a buyer's market out there for players past arbitration.

Throughout this discussion I have been mulling over the same cost-benefit analysis regarding Holliday v. Cabrera. I think they have to pursue both along with Gonzalez, Hanley and Bay etc. After the Teixiera swing and miss last year, my feeling is that the Sox will demonstrate a more aggressive and expansive approach. If the rumors of Sox deadline dealings are to be believed it appears they were very active this summer and were open to top tier acquisitions despite the cost in prospects etc. They didn't pull the trigger probably because of the inclusion of Buchholz, but they were definitely not sitting back and coveting their farmhands.

It is clear with the downward trends of Papi and Lowell and the chance to lose Bay as well, this team needs a big bat and needs one badly for 2010. In fact, I would argue they really need two.

Holliday is a no brainer cause all he costs is cash and a pick and is a better all around player than Cabrera or Bay (Bay will only cost cash too). I think we all agree that Cabrera would cost far less in a trade package than Adrian Gonzalez or Hanley (how much less remains to be seen). Holliday, however, would merely replace Bay... so the offense is only marginally improved, but the defensive improvement is probably dramatic... Is that enough to put them over the top next year?

The question is can the Sox afford to add both Holliday and Cabrera? After 2010 yes, but next year? Would this year's early playoff exit and the impending loss of previously core offensive players drive the Sox to lock up two studs in their prime to pick up the Manny-Ortiz mantle for next decade?

As a fan, I hope so... but it's not my money.

[mcpickl]

You may as well just say that "San Diego won't deal Gonzalez under any realistic circumstances" as no major league team is giving up a frontline starter, a major league reliever with star closer potential, and two top minor league prospects (and I'm referring to Westmoreland/Kelly as they're arguably top 25 prospects) for him.

That is pretty much my belief.

He definitely files under the old saw "he's worth more to that team than others"

He is their only primetime player, he's consistent, durable, young, he's signed insanely cheap, he's a local boy, and is hugely popular with the Mexican-American population in the San Diego area.

I think they would have to be absolutely overwhelmed to move him this offseason.

[mattymatty]

There is no absolute scale of value. Everything's worth is determined by what other people are willing to pay for it. Simply put no one is going to offer the Padres a front of the rotation starter, a killer set-up man and future star closer, and two top 25 minor league prospects for A-Gon. AG's value will be whatever another team is willing to pay for him, not some system of theoretical equal value. That being said, due to the contract he's worth considerably more than Cabrera

I do understand that and I don't know where you saw that I indicated otherwise. But, again, the Padres, like the Tigers, are under no obligation to trade their star player. So, whether there is an absolute scale of value or not isn't material to the conversation. What is material is that, to obtain the player, the Red Sox must give up enough that the Padres feel they are making a good deal for themselves. Its not who gives up the most, but who gives up the most beyond a certain value threshold that is determined by, in this case, whomever is in charge of the Padres

The stories of the Tigers' financial woes are already circulating, and as great as Cabrera is there are other players coming up that they need to think about (Verlander for one). If they're not moving Cabrera, then they need to move someone else.

I think you are reading too much into some stories of the Tigers financial woes. Might it behoove them to move Cabrera financially? Maybe, but again, you have to make doing so worth their while. I've read the same stories, but I haven't read anything that says the Tigers have to dump payroll. If you have I'd appreciate you posting a link because I'd be curious to read it.

The Cubs are in bankruptcy and the new owners are about to lay out $900 million for the franchise and its assets. I don't think increasing the payroll is at the top of their priority list. The Mets owners lost hundreds of millions to Bernie Madoff and the team's payroll is already pretty heavy. Don't count on them getting into the bidding for Cabrera, they'd have a lot more interest in A-Gon. The Blue Jays are still cutting salary, they're not in the market for a new $21 million/year player. There just aren't a lot of options for the Tigers if they want to unload Cabrera's salary in its entirety. Sure, if they're picking up 25%-33% of the price tag, the market expands considerably. I just don't think that they're willing to pay $30-$40 million for a couple of extra prospects. I think they'd rather just take what they can get from the limited market and get out from under the contract.

Fair point about the Cubs. They probably won't be willing to add salary. As for the Mets, it is very difficult to tell how the whole Madoff issue has affected Mets ownership, but there have been many stories circulating in the MSM about the Mets going after Holliday, after John Lackey. Those are both payroll increases, so I see no reason why Cabrera would be (much) different.

I'm not sure where you got that the Blue Jays are cutting salary from, but I haven't read that.

Edit: Clarity

Edited by mattymatty, 13 October 2009 - 07:16 PM.

[nevermind]

It is very funny to me how Teixiera's name keeps popping up. If I remember I do not think Teix was ever going anywhere other than New York. Even if Boston offered more the Yanks would have come in with more why wouldn't they? I can not even believe what New York would have looked like with Swisher at first and I feel they felt the same way.

Dice-K is very frustrating not only to us but from the comments from Theo, Tito, and Ferrell to them as well probably more. I agree we are not giving up on him but making an honest trade. I would like to hold onto Bard but at this time I do not want to move Kelly either.

I am spliy 50/50 on whether Hoyer going to SD will hurt the deal or not. I think he would want value comingfrom Boston. I also think he may just want to rebuild and trade Gonzalez.
This may not be the year to over spend on Bay when you could sure up the lineup with Gonzalez who is way cheaper dollar wise not prospect wise.

Beckett is a wild card. The past two years there has been questions at the end of the season. I can not think of his age but I do not see CC money out there. Even if there is he will need to be a horse again in 2010 and that can only help Boston. I do not think they should trade [I am an Idiot] because at this point I can not see what this rotation will look like in 2011.

[nighthob]

That is pretty much my belief.

He definitely files under the old saw "he's worth more to that team than others"

He is their only primetime player, he's consistent, durable, young, he's signed insanely cheap, he's a local boy, and is hugely popular with the Mexican-American population in the San Diego area.

I think they would have to be absolutely overwhelmed to move him this offseason.

I'm operating under the assumption that Jon Heyman wasn't completely deluded and that San Diego is indeed going to shop A-Gon and that Jed Hoyer is indeed their first choice to take over the operation. Under those circumstances I can indeed see a trade happening (and that was, I'm assuming, the point of the thread). And I don't see a trade with Boston being impossible as Jed, theoretically, has a better handle on what Boston has in the minors, and will have more confidence in choosing Boston's secondary prospects than he would in choosing, say, Philadelphia's (because when A-Gon gets dealt it won't be for multiple major leaguers, it's going to be for a passel of prospects).

As for his popularity, this isn't basketball, no matter how popular he is, it doesn't translate into butts in seats (the Padres are 20th and sinking). And, no, it won't "plummet without him". At least no faster than it's been plummeting with him as their attendance has been sinking throughout his tenure there.

Put simply, I don't think he has some magical positive impact on their books that makes him untradeable. To the contrary I think it's his contract that makes him trading him such an attractive option for San Diego. You don't often get the chance to trade for guys of A-Gon's ability that have contracts like that, so dealing Gonzalez presents the Padres with a chance to re-stock their system and jumpstart the rebuilding process. Holding him doesn't make a ton of sense for San Diego because by the time they restock the major league team he'll be out the door. And, no, two future draft picks aren't worth more than immediate prospects to a team in rebuilding mode.

[nighthob]

I do understand that and I don't know where you saw that I indicated otherwise. But, again, the Padres, like the Tigers, are under no obligation to trade their star player. So, whether there is an absolute scale of value or not isn't material to the conversation. What is material is that, to obtain the player, the Red Sox must give up enough that the Padres feel they are making a good deal for themselves. Its not who gives up the most, but who gives up the most beyond a certain value threshold that is determined by, in this case, whomever is in charge of the Padres

When you put something up for sale, it's simply a matter of who's offering the most. The Tigers are more likely to hold on to Cabrera than San Diego to Gonzalez because the Padres are years from contention and trading him represents their best shot at adding an immediate infusion of young cost-controlled players that could jumpstart the whole process. He's really their only asset at the moment.

I think you are reading too much into some stories of the Tigers financial woes. Might it behoove them to move Cabrera financially? Maybe, but again, you have to make doing so worth their while.

Taking the entire 6/126 does indeed make it worth their while. Texas actually had to pay to move A-Roid. So, yes, assuming 100% of an ugly contract actually is a benefit in this day and age, and there aren't a lot of teams that can do that

As for the Mets, it is very difficult to tell how the whole Madoff issue has affected Mets ownership, but there have been many stories circulating in the MSM about the Mets going after Holliday, after John Lackey. Those are both payroll increases, so I see no reason why Cabrera would be (much) different.

Given what they spent on their draft last season, I'm not sure I can see them taking on a $126 million commitment without Detroit footing some of the bill.

I'm not sure where you got that the Blue Jays are cutting salary from, but I haven't read that.

They waived Alex Rios, still need money to sign Aaron Hill long term, and still have Vernon Wells in the middle of that 38 year $1.3 billion contract. No, I can't see them taking on Cabrera's contract without Detroit picking up 25%-30% of the tab.

[teejay1324]

Yea, definitely count Toronto out, they can't take on that kind of salary right now. Their new GM also has said that he wants to develop players through the system and drafting that's the direction he wants to take the Jays. Doesn't sound like a guy who's going to give up 3-5 top prospects for anybody.

Probably the other way around, they'll more than likely to deal Halladay and get more guys in the system. A system that probably doesn't even have what it takes to put together a package for someone of Cabrera's ilk. Plenty of intriguing pitching in their system, but no impact bats on the horizon.

The Sox would be in the best position of need for and ability to make a deal for Cabrera.

[ELMER FLICK]

I think Cabrera is as unlikely to be traded as Gonzalez, for different reasons. The cost of acquiring Cabrera is over 20 million a year in salary. In the current depressed market, that is at least as much as he could get as a free agent. So, in assuming the salary, a team is already paying his full value, even though he is a very good player. Then the team has to add in a package of prospects so that Detroit gets equal talent on the field. Unless Detroit is willing to take much less talent than he is worth, the combined cost of acquiring him (salary + talent) is going to be an overpay. Then add in questions about weight, character (alcohol), and defense, and I can't see it happening. I suppose Detroit could take some high-salaried talent back, but no way does any team trade a package of good prospects alone for Cabrera (and his salary).

I suspect that if Hoyer becomes GM in San Diego, it makes a Gonzalez trade less likely, unless the Sox overpay. In his first big trade, he can't be in the position of trading his best player to his former team for less than full value, and it would probably need to be at the top end of "full value."

[nighthob]

I think Cabrera is as unlikely to be traded as Gonzalez, for different reasons. The cost of acquiring Cabrera is over 20 million a year in salary. In the current depressed market, that is at least as much as he could get as a free agent. So, in assuming the salary, a team is already paying his full value, even though he is a very good player. Then the team has to add in a package of prospects so that Detroit gets equal talent on the field. Unless Detroit is willing to take much less talent than he is worth, the combined cost of acquiring him (salary + talent) is going to be an overpay. Then add in questions about weight, character (alcohol), and defense, and I can't see it happening. I suppose Detroit could take some high-salaried talent back, but no way does any team trade a package of good prospects alone for Cabrera (and his salary).

I suspect that if Hoyer becomes GM in San Diego, it makes a Gonzalez trade less likely, unless the Sox overpay. In his first big trade, he can't be in the position of trading his best player to his former team for less than full value, and it would probably need to be at the top end of "full value."

The thing is, Detroit can't demand "equal value" if they want the other team to pay 100% of Cabrera's salary. As you note the economy sucks, and even Detroit's owner is feeling the pinch, which is a big part of why he's available to begin with. If they're demanding the new squad pay 100% that limits the available trade partners to two or maybe three squads. The only way they're getting "equal value" is by picking up a quarter to a third of the contract. But look at the numbers, does it really make any financial sense to pay $30-$40 million for a couple of extra prospects? They could buy better talent on the international market with that sort of money. Not to mention do what Boston has done, overpay players that slip in the draft due to perceived signability issues.

As for A-Gon, his price will be much higher due to the favourable contract, but at the end of the day, there is no "equal value". There's just the teams that get in on the bidding and what they offer to the Padres. And Hoyer will still have a better feel for how Boston's secondary prospects project than he will, say, the New York Mets'. So he'll know better which Sox minor leaguers are hidden gems.

Edited by nighthob, 14 October 2009 - 08:10 AM.

[EllisTheRimMan]

The thing is, Detroit can't demand "equal value" if they want the other team to pay 100% of Cabrera's salary. As you note the economy sucks, and even Detroit's owner is feeling the pinch, which is a big part of why he's available to begin with. If they're demanding the new squad pay 100% that limits the available trade partners to two or maybe three squads. The only way they're getting "equal value" is by picking up a quarter to a third of the contract. But look at the numbers, does it really make any financial sense to pay $30-$40 million for a couple of extra prospects? They could buy better talent on the international market with that sort of money. Not to mention do what Boston has done, overpay players that slip in the draft due to perceived signability issues.

As for A-Gon, his price will be much higher due to the favourable contract, but at the end of the day, there is no "equal value". There's just the teams that get in on the bidding and what they offer to the Padres. And Hoyer will still have a better feel for how Boston's secondary prospects project than he will, say, the New York Mets'. So he'll know better which Sox minor leaguers are hidden gems.

Your discussion of absolute versus relative value has merit, but I think you are missing a key feature of trading. It is not like Detroit or SD, for example, are forced to trade these guys this off season. They could look at the "inferior/not fair value" offers they are fielding and simply decide to stand pat. The situation is different for an FA signing, because the individual player only has the option of moving to an internantional league, sitting out for a year or less with no salary or taking the best offer available.

Therefore, I believe it is reasonable to assume that a substantial package for either player (less for Cabrera) will be required, not because other teams may outbid, but due to the option of walking away from the table.

[nighthob]

Your discussion of absolute versus relative value has merit, but I think you are missing a key feature of trading. It is not like Detroit or SD, for example, are forced to trade these guys this off season. They could look at the "inferior/not fair value" offers they are fielding and simply decide to stand pat. The situation is different for an FA signing, because the individual player only has the option of moving to an internantional league, sitting out for a year or less with no salary or taking the best offer available.

Therefore, I believe it is reasonable to assume that a substantial package for either player (less for Cabrera) will be required, not because other teams may outbid, but due to the option of walking away from the table.

In the case of Gonzalez I was accepting the premise of the thread starter (that Heyman was right in that A-Gon was going on the market and that Hoyer was San Diego's first choice) and that Theo would be dealing with Jed. I did make my case that holding Gonzalez makes little sense for San Diego. By the time this team is any good, he'll be long gone. By dealing him they can get themselves an immediate infusion of high minor league prospects that can jumpstart the rebuilding process. And they need to do that to get fans to go to the games. In spite of claims of A-Gon's vast popularity, San Diego's attendance has declined by 40%-50% since his arrival. So his vast popularity hasn't actually led to fans going to games (and that's logical, the Padres suck, and baseball fans support winners rather than individual players). So, I don't think that Heyman is off his rocker when he says that A-Gon will be traded, he's really the Padres' last remaining asset. And if Hoyer is the man picking the prospects, then I do think it logical that he'd feel more comfortable selecting from Boston's B list than another team's (because he'll have a better handle on which of them project out). And when I say "B List" I mean prospects not on BA's top 50 list. The odds of San Diego getting more than one A list player are negligible, so the next GM's task will be to find the best secondary prospects he can in trade.

As for Cabrera, the person that introduced him into the thread pointed out that rumours had the Tigers wanting to move him. The stories about their financial issues predated any Cabrera talk. And new stadium or no Michigan (and especially the Detroit area) is experiencing nuclear winter in economic terms. And Detroit most certainly has young players that they need to lock up that are more important going forward. I'm simply pointing out to people that taking 100% of Cabrera's deal actually is a major benefit. Take a look around at equivalent trades. Boston had to give up prospects for the privilege of trading Manny Ramirez for an inferior hitter (and please let's not get into a diversionary debate on the merits of that trade, at the end of the day Ramirez is a much much better hitter than Bay, and that's really all that's relevant to this discussion). Texas had to agree to pay 30% of A-Roid's contract to get New York to take him for Alfonso Soriano.

So all the proclamations to the effect of "Any team that wants Cabrera will need to pay the entire salary, and then give up a fortune in talent!" are simply wrong. Historically speaking the exact opposite has been true

[EllisTheRimMan]

So all the proclamations to the effect of "Any team that wants Cabrera will need to pay the entire salary, and then give up a fortune in talent!" are simply wrong. Historically speaking the exact opposite has been true

I believe we are more in agreement than disagreement here. I also think the "proclamations" by some in this thread that the only way to get these guys starts with Buchholz and Bard + emptying the farm + John Henry buying 100 year leases on 4 luxury suites in their stadiums etc. are over the top. That all said, it will take giving up talent on the Sox side... the key debating point is: what does talent mean to you? In other words, who is the Red Sox Soriano or package that equals Soriano in your opinion? Let's not forget that for those who ignore OBP, Soriano was considered a budding superstar... that would be like saying, we could get a subsidized Cabrera for Dustin Pedroia (again ignoring alot of other factors). I don't think I could endorse that trade.

What's your starting point for Cabrera if you're the Sox?

EDIT: Sense

Edited by EllisTheRimMan, 14 October 2009 - 11:22 AM.

[nighthob]

Well, we'll start with Boston picking up 100% of the salary, I think that Lars Anderson and Michael Bowden gets the job done. At most another B-level prospect (likely whichever of Reddick or Kalish the Sox like less) seals it.

EDIT: I should also note that Soriano was rated a budding superstar hitter, but a player without a defensive position by the time the Yankees were willing to deal him. So Texas was dealing for a glorified DH and paid some $30 million or so for the privilege (and it was only that little because A-Roid opted out, they were potentially on the hook for another three years of subsidy and expected to pay some $50 million for the privilege of getting Soriano).

Edited by nighthob, 14 October 2009 - 11:34 AM.

[NoXInNixon]

That is pretty much my belief.

He definitely files under the old saw "he's worth more to that team than others"

On the contrary, he's worth less to the Padres than to a contending team. A team that can surround him in the lineup with players who can get on base in front of him, and drive him in when he gets on base, makes him more valuable than a team on which he's going to get pitched around all the time.

If they don't trade him, either this offseason or at the next trading dealine, they're dumb.

[EllisTheRimMan]

Well, we'll start with Boston picking up 100% of the salary, I think that Lars Anderson and Michael Bowden gets the job done. At most another B-level prospect (likely whichever of Reddick or Kalish the Sox like less) seals it.

EDIT: I should also note that Soriano was rated a budding superstar hitter, but a player without a defensive position by the time the Yankees were willing to deal him. So Texas was dealing for a glorified DH and paid some $30 million or so for the privilege (and it was only that little because A-Roid opted out, they were potentially on the hook for another three years of subsidy and expected to pay some $50 million for the privilege of getting Soriano).

Thanks, agree on Soriano, especially in hindsight, but I don't think that was the perception of most Joe Morgan, Tim McCarver types and yes, I'm including most GM's in this line of thinking at the time.

That's a good starting point for Cabrera, but it seems a little light (of course, we're debating hypotheticals). I think you take those first two, absorb the entire contract and add in Casey Kelly and Detroit has some serious thinking to do.

[EllisTheRimMan]

On the contrary, he's worth less to the Padres than to a contending team. A team that can surround him in the lineup with players who can get on base in front of him, and drive him in when he gets on base, makes him more valuable than a team on which he's going to get pitched around all the time.

If they don't trade him, either this offseason or at the next trading dealine, they're dumb.

Good points. The Padres are going nowhere anytime soon. They just traded Peavy and are in deep rebuilding mode. Moreover, their division appears more competitive than ever with LA, COL and SF putting together much more competitive teams than in the past. By the time Gonzalez is ready to contribute to their playoff aspirations he'll be too expensive and bring back far less of a return in prospects for rebuilding with a good chance he might net only draft picks.

[nighthob]

Thanks, agree on Soriano, especially in hindsight, but I don't think that was the perception of most Joe Morgan, Tim McCarver types and yes, I'm including most GM's in this line of thinking at the time.

That's a good starting point for Cabrera, but it seems a little light (of course, we're debating hypotheticals). I think you take those first two, absorb the entire contract and add in Casey Kelly and Detroit has some serious thinking to do.

I doubt you'll need to include Kelly as no one else is eating 100% and including an A level prospect along with a few Bs. If Detroit's paying $30-$40 million I have no doubt that Boston would gladly fork over Kelly and then use the extra money to accumulate international free agents. But, really, if Detroit wants someone to eat 100% their options are the Yankees, Sox, and probably the Dodgers (though they might be squeamish about Manny & Miggy in the same clubhouse).