Guys, I understand the numbers and don't disagree with any of the arguments which say that -- statistically -- IBB's (same with bunts) are rarely wise.
But -- against the large sized, based-on-averages data -- a good manager has to decide just when is the right time that the odds WILL be beaten.
When, on the one hand, it is only in "very isolated" cases that one should call for an IBB...and on the other hand, you have it called twice (with the same batters) successfully in one game, one needs to acknowledge the possibility that it this very knack for managing within the "noise", "luck", "Karma", "outlier" grey areas that may well seperate the LaRussas from the Torres (or whomever you choose to compare).
Saying that the decisions were surely bad and that the good fortune of a positive result is simply due to "luck" is actually a rather inflexible position, no?
One more consideration: The psy-ops game. It is often, purposefully anti-intuitive, unexpected; an upsetting of what is supposed to be "normal". Holliday's last whiff was noteworthy.
Rats, I wanted the Cards to score there.
Edited by ManilaSoxFAN, 07 October 2009 - 11:45 PM.