1350 replies to this topic

[RedOctober3829]

Off another hard-fought win against the Baltimore Crybabies, the Patriots head west to Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium for a showdown with the 4-0 Denver Broncos. Led by freshmen head coach Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, the Broncos are a much different team than last year. They have given up 26 points in 4 games and shut down the Cowboys on Sunday. Quarterback Kyle Orton, WR Brandon Marshall, and a stable of RBs have outperformed early-season expectations. Old friend LaMont Jordan, rookie Knowshon Moreno, and Correll Buckhalter give the team many different looks. Moreno has impressed with his abilities to catch passes out of the backfield. According to the Denver Post, Buckhalter might miss this game with a sprained ankle.

The Pats must do the things they did well versus the Ravens(Crybabies) on defense. They have to get pressure on Kyle Orton while playing two-deep safety over the top to help out on Marshall and Eddie Royal. On offense, they need to spread out the Broncos and make Wes Welker a difference maker. Champ Bailey will be on Randy Moss the whole game, so Welker and Edelman need to step up. Also, they need to establish the run early to maybe open up some shots down the field.

Obviously, the Belichick-McDaniels thing is going to be hyped to no end. Once the whistle blows it is just two teams playing football. The Broncos are no joke. With Nolan at the helm, they have improved ten-fold over last year. This is going to be just as tough of a game as the last two have been. Denver will bring blitzes there is no doubt about it. Matt Light and Co. have done a decent job, but Light needs to step up and not get beat by the speed rush like he has been.

I'd like to keep starting these, so win.

[dynomite]

The high water mark of the '08 season was probably the 41-7 thrashing of the Broncos in the Razor in late October.

The Pats rushed for 257 yards that day, and despite getting sacked 6 times Cassel had a really nice game, throwing for 3 TDs and not turning the ball over.

Now, those Broncos were a VERY different team than the one we're facing on Sunday. This Broncos team hasn't given up more than 95 yards and 10 points this season. But I don't buy their pass defense. I think that secondary can be beat, and I think a healthier Welker will be an enormous asset.

I'd expect a dink-and-dunk, clock churning approach, and an ugly win in which neither team scores more than 20 points.

[Carmine Hose]

The Pats will score 30+ in this one.

[Synovia]

This Broncos team hasn't given up more than 95 yards and 10 points this season.

Yeah, and 2 of the 4 teams they've played have been among the worst 3 in the league. Only one is actually above average, and they still should have probably lost 2 of those games.


That sort of performance should be expected for an even average team.

[SeoulSoxFan]

Yeah, and 2 of the 4 teams they've played have been among the worst 3 in the league. Only one is actually above average, and they still should have probably lost 2 of those games.


That sort of performance should be expected for an even average team.

However, it's still played at Denver, traditionally a very tough place to play for the Pats no matter what kind of team they have. Just FYI, I think the all-time win-loss record against the Broncos are 16 wins vs. 24 losses through last season.

Injury-wise, Buckwalter may be out, but Moreno will step right in. Continued improvement by Welker and continued exile of Galloway will mean they break the streak of Denver's statistical D dominance (after all Dallas was smashmouthing the smaller DL until they got away from the running game), but I am more worried about this game than Falcons or Ravens. One key is for Baker and Watson step up, as Broncos LB have a tough time covering athletic TE types.

[dcmissle]

Good point. Denver has been a house of horrors.

You don't need to go back to the tortures administered by Elway. Just recall that perhaps the most disheartening defeat of BB era occurred there in the 2005 playoffs -- coming off two straight SB wins, our guys coughed up the ball 5 times, and 4 of those turnovers lead to 24 Denver points. That was the Ben Watson fame game.

Another year in the regular season, BB had to pull a Houdini act to pull out a win in a game played by Denver's backup QB.

I'm pleased that Denver beat Dallas, as they are ripe to be plucked at 4 and 0. (Just as it scares the hell out of me that Tennessee could be coming in to Foxboro next week at 0 and 5). But anyone who thinks this will be easy is nuts. There is a lot of history in Denver and almost none of it is good.

[dynomite]

Yeah, and 2 of the 4 teams they've played have been among the worst 3 in the league. Only one is actually above average, and they still should have probably lost 2 of those games.

You missed the part in another thread where I said the Broncos would be lucky to get to 10-6?

Now, their defense isn't as good as it has looked, but it hasn't been a mirage. Football Outsiders had them at #1 overall after week 3. Denver is always one of the hardest places to play, particularly for the Pats. They held the Bengals to 7 points and the Cowboys to 10. In their other three games, the Bengals are averaging 25.6 points and the Cowboys are averaging 28.6.

The defense is for real.

[Obstructed View]

Good point. Denver has been a house of horrors.

You don't need to go back to the tortures administered by Elway. Just recall that perhaps the most disheartening defeat of BB era occurred there in the 2005 playoffs -- coming off two straight SB wins, our guys coughed up the ball 5 times, and 4 of those turnovers lead to 24 Denver points. That was the Ben Watson fame game.

Not to mention the atrocious "faceguarding" penalty on Samuel in the endzone that gave the Broncos a 1st and goal at the one. The refs forgot that faceguarding had been eliminated as a penalty in '03 or '04. That call still pisses the ever living fuck out of me.

[Morassofnegativity]

I think Denver sucks offensively and is not that good defensively. I think they get smoked and I havent been that confident this year in any of the Pats previous games. I think this matchup is perfect for the Pats.

[CaptainLaddie]

Not to mention the atrocious "faceguarding" penalty on Samuel in the endzone that gave the Broncos a 1st and goal at the one. The refs forgot that faceguarding had been eliminated as a penalty in '03 or '04. That call still pisses the ever living fuck out of me.

No, that was in the Colts game in the AFCCG in 06/07.

[SemperFidelisSox]

There was a horrible pass interference penalty on Samuel in that game that gave Denver the ball at the 1 yard line right before halftime, but I'm not sure it was faceguarding.

[j44thor]

You missed the part in another thread where I said the Broncos would be lucky to get to 10-6?

Now, their defense isn't as good as it has looked, but it hasn't been a mirage. Football Outsiders had them at #1 overall after week 3. Denver is always one of the hardest places to play, particularly for the Pats. They held the Bengals to 7 points and the Cowboys to 10. In their other three games, the Bengals are averaging 25.6 points and the Cowboys are averaging 28.6.

The defense is for real.

Elvis Dumervil is going to be a nightmare for Light/Kazcur.
Hopefully we see a lot more Faulk this game as the line will definitely need some help with the DEN pass rush.

[Obstructed View]

No, that was in the Colts game in the AFCCG in 06/07.

You are correct--though there was a similar phantom call in the Denver game that left me equally pissed.

Edited by Obstructed View, 06 October 2009 - 05:19 PM.

[Obstructed View]

There was a horrible pass interference penalty on Samuel in that game that gave Denver the ball at the 1 yard line right before halftime, but I'm not sure it was faceguarding.

Thanks--I think you are right.

[Nator]

You are correct--though there was a similar phantom call in the Denver game that left me equally pissed.

That was a PI on Samuel, but I think most people would agree that the PI should have been called on the receiver on that play.

Most of us are biased, however. Any non-pats fans recall that play?

[tims4wins]

That was a PI on Samuel, but I think most people would agree that the PI should have been called on the receiver on that play.

Most of us are biased, however. Any non-pats fans recall that play?

Highlights from the game here

Fast forward to about 38 or 39 seconds... they appear to be stride for stride, mutual contact... if I remember correctly, I was most upset by the fact that the ball was thrown 5 yards out of reach.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Elvis Dumervil is going to be a nightmare for Light/Kazcur.

I'd say the transition to 3-4 OLB has gone pretty well so far for him. Eight sacks in four games? Yikes.

I'm not convinced about the D in general. Admittedly I havent seen any games and the performance has certainly been great statistically, but their D-line is basically a bunch of journeymen retreads and their secondary is ancient in NFL terms.

[dynomite]

That was a PI on Samuel, but I think most people would agree that the PI should have been called on the receiver on that play.

Most of us are biased, however. Any non-pats fans recall that play?

Here's a link to the video (not YouTube so I can't figure out how to embed) -- the play is at 0:39. It's a VERY ticky-tack call, and the ball was almost certainly uncatchable to boot (notice how it's not even in the picture). [edit: wrote all of that before I saw Tims4Wins post above -- great minds, Timmy]

But whatever -- we aren't the Ravens. A better team is able to overcome penalties.

The only reason that the PI even happened was that on the play before Kevin Faulk didn't protect the ball (at 0:32) and fumbled at our 40. Broncos take a shot downfield on the next play, and whammy.

And even after all that, we still should have been able to win: down 10-6 at the end of the 3rd quarter we had 1st and goal at the Denver 5. The series went:

• 1-5-DEN 5 (2:12) PENALTY on NE-D.Branch, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 5 - No Play.
• 1-10-DEN 10 (1:45) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass to D.Branch to DEN 5 for 5 yards (D.Foxworth).
• 2-5-DEN 5 (1:06) T.Brady pass incomplete to D.Givens.
• 3-5-DEN 5 (1:03) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass intended for T.Brown INTERCEPTED by C.Bailey at DEN -1. C.Bailey to NE 1 for 100 yards (B.Watson). FUMBLES (B.Watson), ball out of bounds at NE 1. Play Challenged by NE and Upheld. (Timeout #1 by NE at 00:47.)

That series was the game. We score a touchdown there and $10 says the next week we're hosting the Steelers in Foxboro in the AFC Championship game. Given that we'd already beaten that Steelers team 23-20 in Pittsburgh in Week 3...

Whatever. Win on Sunday.

Edited by dynomite, 07 October 2009 - 10:49 AM.

[Synovia]

Elvis Dumervil is going to be a nightmare for Light/Kazcur.
Hopefully we see a lot more Faulk this game as the line will definitely need some help with the DEN pass rush.

They didn't seem to have a whole lot of trouble with him last year. He's pretty easy to just run over.

[Salva135]

Good point. Denver has been a house of horrors.

You don't need to go back to the tortures administered by Elway. Just recall that perhaps the most disheartening defeat of BB era occurred there in the 2005 playoffs -- coming off two straight SB wins, our guys coughed up the ball 5 times, and 4 of those turnovers lead to 24 Denver points. That was the Ben Watson fame game.

Another year in the regular season, BB had to pull a Houdini act to pull out a win in a game played by Denver's backup QB.

I'm pleased that Denver beat Dallas, as they are ripe to be plucked at 4 and 0. (Just as it scares the hell out of me that Tennessee could be coming in to Foxboro next week at 0 and 5). But anyone who thinks this will be easy is nuts. There is a lot of history in Denver and almost none of it is good.

I would say this was the first disheartening loss. The '06 AFCCG and '07 SB were pretty disheartening too, no? But all things aside, I just still can't be scared by Kyle Orton, and think the Broncos are eventually going to come back down to earth, with this being the starting point. Playing against a coach who knows the Pats' schemes is a disadvantage, but the Pats are the better team here. I expect another slugfest and a win.

Edited by Salva135, 07 October 2009 - 11:53 PM.

[epraz]

3-5-DEN 5 (1:03) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass intended for T.Brown INTERCEPTED by C.Bailey at DEN -1. C.Bailey to NE 1 for 100 yards (B.Watson). FUMBLES (B.Watson), ball out of bounds at NE 1. Play Challenged by NE and Upheld. (Timeout #1 by NE at 00:47.)

that fumble definitely went through the endzone!

[dynomite]

that fumble definitely went through the endzone!

Yes, it did. But in terms of "things that went wrong on that play" I'd put 'Tom Brady throwing a pick at the other team's 5 yard line' above it.

[tims4wins]

Yes, it did. But in terms of "things that went wrong on that play" I'd put 'Tom Brady throwing a pick at the other team's 5 yard line' above it.

I'd put 'Tom Brady throwing at Champ Bailey in the red zone' a notch above that

[86spike]

They didn't seem to have a whole lot of trouble with him last year. He's pretty easy to just run over.

Dumvervil?

This season Doom (who has really fucking earned that nickname now) is standing up at the line of scrimmage after spending the rest of his career starting in the 3-point stance. The result is a quicker first move which is allowing him to use his freakishly long arms to leverage around tackles/guards and blow shit up.

I certainly do not expect him to keep getting 2 sacks a game, but the guy has arrived and the new alignment helps him greatly. He's going to hit Brady a lot on Sunday. He may not sack him, but he will find his way past Matt Light often enough to press the QB and knock him down. (keep an eye on rookie LB Robert Ayers too... he's played better and better each week and could break out for a big game at any time)

Mike Nolan and Josh McDaniels deserve a ton of credit for their vision with this defense. The individual players seem motley and less-than-impressive on their own... but the sum of the parts has worked very very well. I do not expect them to be able to keep this crazy pace all season, but I wouldn't write them off if I were a Pats fan.

As a Broncos fan, I'm expecting their first loss, but I don't expect it to be a blow out. I also won't be surprised by a Denver win... especially if they clean up the penalty issues they were having against Dallas (that game could have been won by another 10-14 points without some awful sloppy penalties by Broncos players).

I predict this will be a 20-23 type final score with NE likely to be the winner, but far from a lock.

[Ed Hillel]

I'll say 27-13 Pats. The Pats faced much better offenses than the Broncos the past couple of weeks and have held them in check. In addition, it appears that Mayo may be ready to return. They will use McGowan in the box often to help shut down Moreno and I have a hard time thinking Orton will put up more than a couple of TDs, unless they are winning the field position war which, with our offense, is not an easy thing to do.

[tims4wins]

As a Broncos fan, I'm expecting their first loss, but I don't expect it to be a blow out. I also won't be surprised by a Denver win... especially if they clean up the penalty issues they were having against Dallas (that game could have been won by another 10-14 points without some awful sloppy penalties by Broncos players).

I predict this will be a 20-23 type final score with NE likely to be the winner, but far from a lock.

You really think it will be that high scoring? The Broncos D has been great so far this year, and the Pats offense, while performing pretty well, has had somewhat of a difficult time getting the ball into the end zone. On the other side of the ball, the Pats D has been solid if unspectacular, while the Denver offense hasn't done all that much. As a result of the performance of those 4 units through 4 games this year, I expect a low-scoring game, in the teens. Something like 16-10 or 17-13.

Completely agree with you that the Pats are 'likely' to be the winner (I'd say it's somewhere around 55/45 or so), but that Denver could easily win this game. Let's not forget 2003, when the immortal Danny Kannell led Denver to a very-near upset of the eventual Super Bowl champs - that was the intentional safety game. And Kyle Orton is a LOT better than Danny Kannell.

[finnVT]

Dumvervil?

I think he meant Faulk... Despite the game not being close, Denver still managed 6 sacks, including 2 for Dumervil.

edit: or he meant running over them in the running game.. lots of rushing yards all around for the pats last year.

Edited by finnVT, 08 October 2009 - 11:59 AM.

[Synovia]

You really think it will be that high scoring? The Broncos D has been great so far this year,

Denver's D has played against a bevy of terrible offenses and Cincinatti. Oakland actually had their best game offensively of the year against Denver (as far as YPC, Qb stats, etc).

[86spike]

weather forecast for Sunday: Cold as hell and possible snow

the kicking game is going to be interesting if it snows.

Edited by 86spike, 09 October 2009 - 03:16 PM.

[pokey_reese]

The Pats hate it in Denver. The thin air makes everyone uncomfortable, that stadium is loud as hell, and I am not sure if I can handle watching Light against Dumervil. Oddly enough, even though everything about this game screams 'low-scoring,' I could see this going the other way if not for the weather. Pats 24-17.

[mabrowndog]

The latest forecast from Accuweather shows the worst of the cold and wintry weather hitting tomorrow, with a warm-up and clearing skies for Sunday. Even if temps are in the low 40s by game time, this doesn't look bad at all.

[86spike]

The forecast improved again on accuweather. High of 58, partly sunny.

Gametime, especially if the sun is out, should be in the 50s. That's some nice football weather.

[SoxScout]

I can't wait to see what people bitch about tomorrow as Maroney is goes for 100+. "BJGE would have gone for 150!"

[carver]

Denver's D has played against a bevy of terrible offenses and Cincinatti. Oakland actually had their best game offensively of the year against Denver (as far as YPC, Qb stats, etc).

They beat Dallas last week, who is known to have a pretty decent offense, don't you think? Denver put pressure on Romo all game long, and a pass rush is not something the Broncos have had in a long while...

[JohnnyTheBone]

I can't wait to see what people bitch about tomorrow as Maroney is goes for 100+.

While this would be awesome, I must include myself amongst the skeptical. More than a quarter of Maroney's attempts have resulted in negative yards, an astonishing figure.

The breakdown of negative runs:
Laurence Maroney -- 7 in 27 attempts
Fred Taylor -- 2 in 45 attempts
Sammy Morris -- 2 in 13 attempts
Kevin Faulk -- 1 in 16 attempts

It doesn't just seem like Maroney runs up the back of his tackles for negative yards, it's actually happening.

Edit: Source - http://espn.go.com/b...s/patriots/blog

Edited by JohnnyTheBone, 10 October 2009 - 09:01 PM.

[SoxScout]

James Sanders: OUT

Mayo was not downgraded tonight.

[Rook05]

Pats by +10. I'll go with something like 24-14. And I like the Broncos.

[Tony C]

not that Orton is great shakes, but he wasn't able to throw with his hurt hand, and that seems to be getting progressively better.

[Seagull]

James Sanders: OUT

Disappointed to hear this considering the nice play the Pats have been getting from the secondary to date. Sanders is kind of the definition of an average player, but he's pretty heady. I think his teammates often look to him for direction on sets, coverages, etc. when he's in there.

[SoxScout]

Galloway.. a healthy scratch again.. didn't even make the trip to Denver with the Patriots.

[axx]

Galloway.. a healthy scratch again.. didn't even make the trip to Denver with the Patriots.

Really? He's got to be on his way out then.

[Reverend]

While this would be awesome, I must include myself amongst the skeptical. More than a quarter of Maroney's attempts have resulted in negative yards, an astonishing figure.

The breakdown of negative runs:
Laurence Maroney -- 7 in 27 attempts
Fred Taylor -- 2 in 45 attempts
Sammy Morris -- 2 in 13 attempts
Kevin Faulk -- 1 in 16 attempts

It doesn't just seem like Maroney runs up the back of his tackles for negative yards, it's actually happening.

Edit: Source - http://espn.go.com/b...s/patriots/blog

I wouldn deign to speak for SoxScout who's football acument is much greater than mine, but I would venture to guess that he believes that Maroney will get the chance to run in different situations. That is to say, Maroney won't get more yards just because he's getting more touches, but he could get more yards because he'll be getting different kinds of touches.

From what I've seen this year, the platoon has offered the offense more than just having fresh legs, but allows them to give more looks and use more trickery by mixing up the plays vis a vis which runner is in--much like BB does with the packages and looks on defense. I mean, everyone loved that Sammy Morris pass last week, but that came with him unexpectedly lined up split out way wide left.

Freedy being out alters the play mix for the remaining personnel in ways that mean: 1) different players will play in different situations; and 2) that some of the information that the Broncos have on how they use each guy is not irrelevant.

The combination makes it possible that Maroney could have a big day.

But the more important think is to WIN.

[neil]

Mixed feeling on this being the late game. On the one hand I can watch the Sox without flipping constantly, on the other hand I wonder if my stomach can handle watching it (especially as I have tickets for Monday!).

[shawnrbu]

Galloway.. a healthy scratch again.. didn't even make the trip to Denver with the Patriots.

He really is the 2nd coming of Donald Hayes. Hayes was DOA after he screwed up the San Diego game in 2002 that ended the 12 game winning streak dating back to November 01. Galloway met his fate with his awful performance against Atlanta. Could he fetch anything at all in a trade this week?

[Ed Hillel]

I expect we'll see Galloway cut once Tate is taken off of the PUP list.

[SoxScout]

Mayo on the field warming up

[SoxScout]

Inactives are Galloway, Taylor, Wheatley, Sanders, Ohrnberger, Simmons, Sands and Brace.

[Seagull]

I'm amazed that Mayo is back so soon. Not good to see Brace and Wheatley unable to crack the active roster week after week.

[Mystic Merlin]

I wonder if Mayo will play a lot?

Either way, I'm pumped he's gonna play.

[SoxScout]

I don't expect him to play a lot, maybe they have a 3-4 package in which he will play (not dressing Sands)... but because I think that he will probably play 85% of the snaps.

I'm pretty nervous that he is back this soon, I would have been fine if they held him out till after the Bye, or the week before.