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Nut up or shut up


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#651 Ed Hillel


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Posted 29 September 2009 - 12:09 AM

QUOTE (Jed Zeppelin @ Sep 29 2009, 01:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Tiny sample but they have neutralized him. In 9 games against the Red Sox he hit .200/.256/.286 with 0 HR and 12k/3bb.


Yeah, but OPS doesn't tell the story. Each one of those singles or walks may as well be triples. Mike Scioscia is going to have his team averaging an "against the Red Sox" OPS of 5.2. He's brilliant like that.

#652 paulftodd


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Posted 29 September 2009 - 12:33 AM

QUOTE (Papelbot @ Sep 29 2009, 11:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Ok, here's the thing thats bugging me. All the national annoucers, everyone and their mom are talking about how the Angels are gonna run all over the Red Sox. Well, what about the last series they won? Was it much of a problem then? How about the ALDS last year? I can't imagine Tek threw out runners at a breathtaking clip then as opposed to now. Maybe a bit better percentage but the basics are still the same. Why is this suddenly a "BIG ISSUE"?


This is an excellent question, you should be promoted.

The reason is these folks are stupid, or to be kind, mentally challenged. They go along with the herd hysteria about games where there are 7 SB in game showing up on the boxscore and create a doomsday scenario with their overactive imagination and paranoia.

First fact is that the average SB earns you 0.153 runs. Of course, with a runner on 1B and 0 out, a SB gets you 0.236 runs. This might be valuable in the 9th inning of close game behind by 1 run where the teams closer is on the mound. Thats why it's nice to have a Dave Roberts or Gathright avilable for pinch running. Ellsbury has 66 SB and has scored only 89 runs. In 22 games he has a SB he has not scored a run. So a SB is not a slam dunk for a run scored.

To actually steal a base, you need to get runners on base, and to get the runner home, you need someone to drive him in (3 separate positive events). So if you have good pitching, you allow fewer runners on base, and those who get in scoring position do not score as often, so the running game is minimized.

Finally, it has to be a close game (tie or 1 run behind), or you have to have a lead for a SBA to happen. Only 6% of SBA are made by a team down 2 runs or more, so if you jump to a quick lead, you shut down the running game. This is because the cost of a CS is preventing a big inning and the average run value of an out is -0.426 runs. Everyone said Tek could not throw out a corpse and then he threw out Cano, so a SBA carrys some risk even with the most hapless of catchers.

Lets look at those Angel games that Tek caught in the last series, he caught all of them. They stole 4 bases, not a single runner scored. Look at the Yankees 7 SB game, for all that running, they got 1 run out of it. 11 SB = 1 run (a bit lower than average). The next 11 SB may equal 2 runs to even things out.

Also, control of the running game is not limited to the catchers ability to throw out runners. Pitchers can control the running game with a good move to 1B, or changing their timing to the plate, or having a quick release to the plate using a slide step or whatever. Lester for example is very hard to run on when he can be bothered to pay attention to the runner on base (something he did not care to do in the meaningless game in the toilet). Penny OTOH was slow to the plate and had a bad habit of letting guys like Crawford on base 5 times in a game while giving them an early lead.

Bottom line is that if the Red Sox offense is clicking, and their starting pitchers are keeping the speedsters off the bases, the other team will be doing most of it's running on a treadmill.

Edited by paulftodd, 29 September 2009 - 12:34 AM.