[Drocca]

This is via him on MLB TV right now. He cites Beckett's numbers against Toronto since Cito Gaston has been there and claims Gaston is the best in the league at picking up on pitchers tipping pitches. I know posters here have had some success before at catching this sort of thing. Is there anything to this?

[NomarRS05]

The only thing is, tipping pitches doesn't really account for a drop in velocity and a sudden lack of command. I think it's either a dead arm or, as I mentioned in the other thread, perhaps an injury.

[Drocca]

Yeah, I certainly wasn't suggesting this is his end-all/be-all problem right now and there could be something to it being just with the Jays. I'm more curious what folks who know what to look for think when looking at these starts (having not played, I have no idea what to look for).

[rembrat]

It just looks like another person in the media is trying to wash Cito Gatson's balls. Did Cito and his boys give the Yankees the heads up too? Josh struckout (and maybe we can get some of the pitch f/x guys to chime in here on what kind of strikeouts they were) 9 hitters tonight but he also walked 4 with 2 outs and 5 in total. Lack of focus, trying to pitch through pain, mechanics have gone awry or just a horrible slump. Pick one or two of those and I think we have what's up with Beckett.

[Jed Zeppelin]

I'm sure Cito Gaston is the bee's knees, but frankly Beckett has sucked against Toronto with or without him.

They've hit 17 HR off him - more than any other team and slug .526 with an .859 OPS, both the highest among AL teams.
His 2.17 K/BB is his lowest against any AL opponent, as is his 7.0 K/9 (these #'s don't include tonight, the K/9 will go up but the five walks make the former even worse)
He's 3-5 with a 6.44 ERA (will go up after tonight) against Toronto.

They have his number, whether or not this current bad streak is related to tipping pitches. Besides Beckett's 2nd start in a Boston uniform and three very good starts in 2007, Toronto has manhandled him.

[cannonball 1729]

I'm sure Cito Gaston is the bee's knees, but frankly Beckett has sucked against Toronto with or without him.

They've hit 17 HR off him - more than any other team and slug .526 with an .859 OPS, both the highest among AL teams.
His 2.17 K/BB is his lowest against any AL opponent, as is his 7.0 K/9 (these #'s don't include tonight, the K/9 will go up but the five walks make the former even worse)
He's 3-5 with a 6.44 ERA (will go up after tonight) against Toronto.

They have his number, whether or not this current bad streak is related to tipping pitches. Besides Beckett's 2nd start in a Boston uniform and three very good starts in 2007, Toronto has manhandled him.

Beckett vs. Blue Jays:

Pre-Cito: 9 starts, 56.2 IP, 31 ER, 4.92 ERA
With Gaston: 3 starts, 12.2 IP, 20 ER (22 R), 14.21 ERA

SSS and all that, and it's very possible that Beckett's pitching through an injury, but that's a big jump.

It just looks like another person in the media is trying to wash Cito Gatson's balls.

Another? Have I missed a whole bunch of people in the media fawning over Cito Gaston? We're not talking about Derek Jeter here.

Cito certainly has a well-deserved reputation for picking up when pitchers tip pitches. Recall that the Blue Jays were the ones teeing off on Paul Byrd when we found he was tipping his fastball by tapping his glove last year, so it has certainly come up. It's not an unreasonable thought on Reynolds' part.

This post has been edited by cannonball 1729: 29 August 2009 - 01:53 AM

[Jed Zeppelin]

Beckett vs. Blue Jays:

Pre-Cito: 7 starts, 56.2 IP, 31 ER, 4.92 ERA
With Gaston: 3 starts, 12.2 IP, 20 ER (22 R), 14.21 ERA

SSS and all that, and it's very possible that Beckett's pitching through an injury, but that's a big jump.

He has started 12 games against Toronto:
2006
4/11 - 7 IP, 1 ER
4/21 - 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 HRA
5/3 - 5 IP, 4 ER
5/30 - 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 HRA
9/3 - 5 IP, 3 ER, 1 HRA
2007
5/8 - 7 IP, 1 ER, 1 HRA
7/15 - 8 IP, 2 ER
9/4 - 8 IP, 3 ER, 1 HRA
2008
4/6 - 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 HRA
8/17 - 2.1 IP, 8 ER, 1 HRA
2009
8/18 - 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 HRA
8/28 - 5 IP, 5 ER, 2 HRA

Three bad starts against the Jays under Gaston, four good ones and five bad ones before Gaston.

[cannonball 1729]

He has started 12 games against Toronto:

Whoops. The first line should say 9 instead of 7. I've edited it above. The rest of the stats are still correct, however.

2006
4/11 - 7 IP, 1 ER
4/21 - 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 HRA
5/3 - 5 IP, 4 ER
5/30 - 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 HRA
9/3 - 5 IP, 3 ER, 1 HRA
2007
5/8 - 7 IP, 1 ER, 1 HRA
7/15 - 8 IP, 2 ER
9/4 - 8 IP, 3 ER, 1 HRA
2008
4/6 - 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 HRA
8/17 - 2.1 IP, 8 ER, 1 HRA
2009
8/18 - 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 HRA
8/28 - 5 IP, 5 ER, 2 HRA

Three bad starts against the Jays under Gaston, four good ones and five bad ones before Gaston.

Here's the thing, though: not all bad starts are created equal. A start with 7.1 IP, 5 ER and a start with 2.1 IP, 8 ER are both "bad," but they're not equivalent by any means.

Of those five bad starts before Gaston, three of them are still better than Beckett's best start under Gaston. Since Gaston came in, Beckett has allowed 1 ER per inning in every one of his starts. Before Gaston, he reached that mark twice in twelve starts.

He's always been bad against the Jays in general, but it seems like he's gotten worse since Gaston arrived, to the point that his ERA is ten points higher under Gaston than before him.

[E5 Yaz]

I think Reynolds saw that the Cardinals (particularly Chris Carpenter) were getting credit for allegedly fixing something in Smoltz's delivery to keep him from tipping pitches. Harold, seeing an opportunity, then makes a similar claim about Beckett and his struggles against Toronto, in hopes that someone would claim he's a worthwhile analyst.

Beckett's problems seem with walks and home runs, bith of which speak to location more than tipping pitches.

[Rooster Crows]

Actually, Beckett has periodically been suspected of tipping throughout much of his major league career, starting with the Marlins, and particularly in 2006

Beckett tipping pitches? One theory going around in light of the surprising struggles of Josh Beckett is that perhaps he is tipping his pitches.
Tigers first baseman Sean Casey confirmed to the Lawrence (Mass.) Eagle Tribune that Beckett was tipping pitches back on May 29, 2002, during a Marlins-Reds game. "I remember that. That's right," Casey told reporter Rob Bradford. "I do remember him tipping his pitches."

ProJo and 2006 are just a few other examples of the meda speculation I recall in 2006 on Josh's tipping, but there have been many others. Francona hasn't thought much of it, but one wonders whether he would admit it anyway.

His velocity -- routinely 94 to 97 -- has not been the problem, suggesting that he is healthy and raising a legitimate question: Has he been tipping pitches? ''We monitor that very carefully," said manager Terry Francona, disputing in tone and with his facial expression such a suggestion. ''I just think he was mislocating to really good fastball-hitting teams. Some younger teams, Cleveland, Texas, they take good swings on fastballs.
''If he makes his pitches against any lineup, he's probably going to be OK. His stuff's good. He likes to compete. He just got a little bit out of whack and made some pitches over the middle of the plate."

Perhaps it's simply that Beckett is so good, so much of the time, that when he goes through these periods of struggle, people want to pin it on something tangible, more than just struggling. Whatever it is, he goes through these periods from time to time, like August 2006, while claiming he is physically fine (perhaps he tires by that point?). I just hope someone figures out what's going on and how to fix it soon.

This was a rather interesting article by Jackie MacMullen in 2006 on pitchers tipping in general, and how they're spotted, featuring friend, Gaston, along with Eck and others.

Gaston developed a reputation for being one of the most astute managers in the game at busting pitchers who were tipping their pitches. He happily shared his information with his own players and often received unsolicited information from opponents who, like Gaston, had made a hobby of studying the tendencies of the top hurlers in the game.

This post has been edited by Rooster Crows: 29 August 2009 - 05:28 AM

[ToeKneeArmAss]

So a couple of things:

1. Harold Reynolds is an idiot.

2. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

I haven't gone over the recording of last night's game, but what I saw watching it looks more like poor conditioning having an effect toward the end of a long season. It's remarkable how often and by how much he was missing the target. And it seems to me that the walks did more damage than the hits last night. Does Harold think he's tipping whether he's going to throw a ball or a strike?

Plus, the two bombs were off of meatballs. The one to Aaron Hill was a rolling curve that hung in the middle of the strikezone. Tipping doesn't help a ML hitter with the curveball. They pick up the spin on those really fast, and know it's a curve practically from the instant it leaves the pitcher's hand. So a curve relies on location and sharpness/lateness of break. This pitch had none of the above. My guess is that as Beckett's arm tires late in the season, he's not snapping off the curveball with as much spin velocity - maybe pitchfx guys could trend the rpm on his curve to test. Plus his arm may be dragging through the release point, resulting in a release slightly before when his "good" curve gets released. This would result in it staying up in the zone. An old-school pitching coach might say he's not getting on top of the curve.

The one to Barajas was a get-ahead fastball that just got way too much of the plate. Did he tip it? Maybe. But it doesn't take a rocket scientist to be anticipating a fastball in that situation. The location is what did him in there.

Frankly, I'd rather believe he was tipping - that's correctable, and not every player on every team benefits. A tired arm is a different story.

EDIT: Here's an MLB Network analysis where they throw Harold the Scarecrow under the bus - I love the "grassy knoll" reference at the end: Link to Video

This post has been edited by ToeKneeArmAss: 29 August 2009 - 02:36 PM

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I've got to agree with ToeKnee. The curveball to Hill was a meatball by any definition. Maybe sometimes you get lucky and the guy pops that up, but anyone who's having a year like Hill will crush that ball 9 times out of 10. I don't care if he's sitting fastball or knows the curve is coming.

And outside of the two home runs, Beckett wasn't battered around the ballpark. He did have 9 Ks in a short start. Look at the beaning of Scutaro - you think Beckett did that on purpose? The reaction from Varitek showed real concern to me, and Beckett looked a little shaken, hovering close to the plate. He just didn't really know where the ball was going sometimes. That was the problem.

[j44thor]

I was wondering about the possibility of tipping pitches after the Yankees game.
There is simply no way Hideki Matsui should have been able to hit the HR on a letter high fastball like he did.
I also remember the NY Hitting coach being somewhat coy when asked if they had a particular approach that was effective vs. Beckett. Sure his lack of command isn't helping the cause but perhaps there is something else going on as well.
Its not like he his throwing Pennyesque meatballs for the most part.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Through Aug. 7: 150 IP, 10 HR
Aug. 12-28: 25.1 IP, 12 HR

It sure looks like there's something going on there. And the fact that he's been tattooed by three different teams in four starts seems to weigh in favor of the tired-arm hypothesis over the pitch-tipping hypothesis, doesn't it?

EDIT: OK, he didn't exactly get "tattooed" by Detroit on the 12th....but still, he's given up multiple HR in four straight starts after only doing it twice in his previous 22.

This post has been edited by Savin Hillbilly: 29 August 2009 - 09:21 AM

[Maalox]

Well, there is something that pitch tipping, bad mechanics and injuries all have in common, viz., they are all things that you will see if you look for them with the right tools. If one of those were the cause, I would hope the Sox had known about it by now, and would be more worried that they hadn't found it than about the cause itself.

[rembrat]

Another? Have I missed a whole bunch of people in the media fawning over Cito Gaston? We're not talking about Derek Jeter here.

Cito certainly has a well-deserved reputation for picking up when pitchers tip pitches. Recall that the Blue Jays were the ones teeing off on Paul Byrd when we found he was tipping his fastball by tapping his glove last year, so it has certainly come up. It's not an unreasonable thought on Reynolds' part.

This has nothing to do with Beckett but, yea, the media loves them some Cito Gatson. Back when the Blue Jays were in 1st or 2nd place, Cito got a lot of press. The Blue Jays were a better team because Cito has a more aggressive approach to hitting, it couldn't have been that they all got hot at once, nah, it was all Cito. You don't hear about him now because there is nothing to report out of Toronto now that their offense isn't insanely hot.

I want to see video evidence of Beckett tipping his pitches. Then I will apologize to HR and bow down to Cito's greatness.