82 replies to this topic

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

He was scored upon in 10 straight innings before finally getting a scoreless one tonight.

He has allowed 9 home runs in his last 12 innings.

Jayson Stark tweeted this: Beckett had allowed 7 earned runs at Fenway since May 23 -- and seven in 4 2/3 tonight.

Tonight he gave up home runs on both the four seamer and the curve. Game thread reports have his command off and the curve hanging all night.

What is the problem here? Injury? Tipping pitches? Mechanical problems? Just a slump? By all appearances there is something seriously wrong with this guy.

Discuss.

[kmueller]

I think most people in the game thread are hitting the panic button a little too early.

He has sucked the past two games, but 11 days ago he was brilliant, against a first place team no less.

He may be a little tired, Joe Morgan (yes I hate him) talked about his arm speed being down. The Sox are home through his next start, right? So he should be able to get rested up, and lets hope he is back....

[NomarRS05]

Beckett had allowed 0 ER in three of five starts before looking awful in Toronto and tonight against the Yankees. His K/BB over those five starts was 35/7.

It's highly disturbing that he has looked this bad over his last two starts, especially since one of them was against the Yankees on a night where Sabathia looked vulnerable. There's little question that the Red Sox can ill afford to have Beckett flail down the stretch in 2009. But I'm not ready to hit the panic button yet. Two games just isn't enough to convince me that this is going to continue given his performance leading up to this stretch.

Edited by NomarRS05, 23 August 2009 - 09:12 PM.

[redinchicago]

Combo of stuff and location. His curve doesn't seem to have the bite. Velocity is there, but obviously velocity isn't a concern or something to look at usually. Noticing that he has thrown more cutters and change ups the last couple of innings. Playing to contact more.

Just think this is an adjustment period and could be mechanical (I'm no pitching coach, obviously). I expect him to get back that location and find a better curve.

[kmueller]

Just think this is an adjustment period and could be mechanical (I'm no pitching coach, obviously). I expect him to get back that location and find a better curve.

Could the lousy curve be a blister thing? I haven't seen him looking at his fingers at all, just curious.

[JMDurron]

I don't think that tipping pitches is the problem here. It didn't take a special "in" for Jeter and Matsui to know that they'd be getting 1st pitch fastballs early on in the game. Given the inconsistent/mediocre curveball (note that Beckett seemed to get it back for a little while before losing it again to A-Rod), lousy fastball control (the common thing seems to have been the gloves of Martinez and Varitek moving quite a bit to catch his fastballs in his last two starts), and the fact that there has been no hint of any sort of injury issue, I think we are looking at a temporary mechanical/slump issue. Lousy time for it, but I think that's what we're seeing right now.

[redinchicago]

I don't think that tipping pitches is the problem here. It didn't take a special "in" for Jeter and Matsui to know that they'd be getting 1st pitch fastballs early on in the game. Given the inconsistent/mediocre curveball (note that Beckett seemed to get it back for a little while before losing it again to A-Rod).

Actually the 3-1 curve right before A-Rod's HR was his best of the night, IMO. Could be ARod was looking fastball on that pitch, but the bite and combo of ARod backing away on a called curve strike. So the inconsistency was pitch by pitch.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Quick pitch f/x notes:

1) CB is flatter. He's getting two inches less break than before these last two starts.
2) Throwing way too many strikes. His strike% has been in the 70-80's nearly every inning. Needs to work batters more.
3) Two seem is slower and isn't getting the break it usually does.

Now, maybe a more knowledgeable pitch f/x person can fill in some of the rest.

[Al Zarilla]

Just thought of something: Beckett has really good control with all of his pitches. He's always around the strike zone, never really wild, walks few. So, people dig in against him. Maybe he needs to start drilling a few people. Of course, that doesn't explain his '07 very well though.

[Zupcic Fan]

Well, there is good news tonight at least. We can stop blaming Victor Martinez.

[paulftodd]

He has sucked the past two games, but 11 days ago he was brilliant, against a first place team no less.

He may be a little tired, Joe Morgan (yes I hate him) talked about his arm speed being down. The Sox are home through his next start, right? So he should be able to get rested up, and lets hope he is back....

The funny thing about arm problems is they can come up suddenly. Past performance means nothing. Not saying he has arm problems (or arm fatigue) since I have no idea.

If he is tired and his arm speed is down, someone should tell the Red Sox, since they let him come out in the 8th and throw 120 pitches despite his having an off night with a well rested bullpen.

Actually the 3-1 curve right before A-Rod's HR was his best of the night, IMO. Could be ARod was looking fastball on that pitch, but the bite and combo of ARod backing away on a called curve strike. So the inconsistency was pitch by pitch.

It was also right over the middle of the plate, and the next pitch was exactly the same pitch in the same location, to my eyes anyways. Only difference is A-Rod picked it up after seeing the same pitch the pitch before, and was ready for it the 2nd time. With a 3-1 pitch he was likely looking FB. At 3-2 he had to be ready for the CB as well as the FB. Maybe a better location would have had a different outcome.

Edited by paulftodd, 23 August 2009 - 11:13 PM.

[Paul M]

A lot of starters wear down in the final 6 weeks and Beckett looks like he's a little off for some reason. I just hope he's healthy the rest of the way.

Arod has become more of a guess hitter (his statistical profile seems to back this up a little), imo, lately and the HR off Tazawa and the one tonight both came off curveballs with two strikes. I don't like speeding Arod's bat up anymore and I think Beckett needs to pitch righties inside a lot more effectively.

He's going to give up HRs, as he's so around the plate, but stringing hits together and mutliple HR innings is definitely not what you expect with him.

I'm not too worried yet as it was only 10 days or so ago he looked great against the same team. Problem is this race will not allow them the luxury to back off him too much the rest of the way.

[Sprowl]

Combo of stuff and location. His curve doesn't seem to have the bite. Velocity is there, but obviously velocity isn't a concern or something to look at usually. Noticing that he has thrown more cutters and change ups the last couple of innings. Playing to contact more.

Just think this is an adjustment period and could be mechanical (I'm no pitching coach, obviously). I expect him to get back that location and find a better curve.

Five hits and two home runs off Beckett's curve is unprecedented. The changeup and cutter were Beckett's best pitches today, until Matsui's second homer on a cutter that Beckett tried to get inside but left middle-in. I think the Yankees were looking for outside-half get-me-over 4-seamers early in the count, and went up hacking. Good plan. I also suspect that Beckett's curve, his only real offspeed pitch, can sometimes be identified by release point, so the batter just have to guess curve or fastball, and take a gamble that it won't turn out to be a cutter or change.

Quick pitch f/x notes:

1) CB is flatter. He's getting two inches less break than before these last two starts.
2) Throwing way too many strikes. His strike% has been in the 70-80's nearly every inning. Needs to work batters more.
3) Two seem is slower and isn't getting the break it usually does.

1 - definitely: Beckett was throwing slurves to the Yankees, with more horizontal than vertical movement. A slurve is fine if you want to throw a brushback pitch that fades back over the inside corner (as Sabathia threw to Ellsbury for a called strike 3). If it's going right down Broadway, it needs all the spin converted into vertical drop. Beckett grooved a lot of curves (see A-Rod chart below).

2 - yea, when the opponents are up there hacking, Beckett has to get smarter. He has been able to blow most teams away this season by daring them to hit his fastball.

3 - my only disagreement: his 2-seamer is just as fast (even faster tonight) as his 4-seamer, and had some strong visible movement to my eyes. I would guess that the division between the fastballs comes around the -8.5" horizontal break line. The sinker-cutter-changeup alternation was all that worked for Beckett with his two main pitches apparently easily identified by the hitters. The release point data isn't damning, but it's worrying: it's lower than normal for Beckett.

It was also right over the middle of the plate, and the next pitch was exactly the same pitch in the same location, to my eyes anyways. Only difference is A-Rod picked it up after seeing the same pitch the pitch before, and was ready for it the 2nd time. With a 3-1 pitch he was likely looking FB. At 3-2 he had to be ready for the CB as well as the FB. Maybe a better location would have had a different outcome.

A-Rod got three curves in a row, the last two in exactly the same place. Calling for the same offspeed pitch in the same place has bitten both Martinez and Varitek lately, and A-Rod has shown that he can hit the low curve already.

[Jnai]

Two other notes:
1) Four of the home runs (how often can you say that?) and three of the singles came on pitches that caught *way* too much of the plate.

2) Beckett was surprisingly unwilling to come inside the entire game, throwing the fast majority of his pitches to the outer half. He hardly used the inside edge of the plate at all. On that same graph, you can also see the huge number of curveballs left out over the plate.

[Sparky Lyle]

Arrogance.


Nothing scientific. Just arrogance.


And presumptuousness.



That Yankees line-up isn't just going to bend over the kitchen table and spread its ass cheeks and let Josh Fucking Beckett fuck 'em up the arse.


5 home runs.

FIVE HOME RUNS. Only one of which was a home run with men on base.

FIVE HOME RUNS.

That is pure sloth. From an arrogant, talented, gifted cunt.

That's 10 home runs in the last 20 and 1/3 innings.


Five in one game.

Go fuck yourself, Josh, you prick!

[LondonSox]

This should mark the turning point, Beckett making a run for Cy Young thread started immediately before the 2 crappy starts,
now we've gone from Beckett is the best to panic mode, that should reverse the karma.

[behindthepen]

As I posted in the premature CY thread, it's not 2 bad starts, it's 3.
He put up good numbers vs. Detroit in the start before @Toronto, but the weather was cool and wet, and he gave up several very hard hit warning track shots, as well as 2 HR. So whatever it is, it's been happening for 3 starts now.

[ctsoxfan5]

From Buster Olney:

Why Beckett lost, from Trevor Ebaugh of ESPN Stats & Information: The Yankees' home run data from Sunday night showed a definite trend in how to approach Beckett -- look for a first-pitch fastball, then curveball with two strikes. Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui's leadoff homers in the first and second innings were both off fastballs. Robinson Cano and A-Rod later followed with homers off two-strike curveballs. This proved to be a great approach: Beckett threw 25 of 33 first-pitch fastballs (76 percent versus 59 percent overall). Beckett threw curveballs in eight of 18 of at-bats that reached two-strike counts (44 percent versus 25 percent overall).

Olney - Insider Required

[Laschelle Tarver]

From Buster Olney:



Olney - Insider Required

I don't mind the throwing the curveball with two strikes, but they were awful pitches in terms of execution. I believe the Teixeira base hit scoring a run in the third was also on a hanging curve. Regardless of whether or not you know it's coming, a good curveball should not be a pitch that is easily pulled.

[JimD]

That just seems way too simple.

[NDame616]

From Buster Olney:



Olney - Insider Required

While it's great that we appear to know what went wrong, I'm a little concerned as to why a Cy Young contending pitcher and "the best pitch-caller in the game" came up with an approach against the best offense in baseball that would rival what a 10-year-old would use in Playstation.

[WayBackVazquez]

From Buster Olney:



Olney - Insider Required

This is half stating-the-obvious, and half doubtful/unpersuasive. That the Yankees might look fastball on pitch 1 is hardly newsworthy. All good hitters will look for a pitch and/or location early or ahead in the count, and then jump on it if they get it. As far as the Yankees sitting curveball with 2 strikes, I find this highly unlikely. Most hitters will look for hard stuff and adjust to offspeed pitches, simply because reaction time allows them to do so. If you sit on a curveball, and then get a fastball, by the time you recognize the heater, it's going to be behind you. So unless Josh is throwing the curveball near 100% of the time with two strikes, it's a pretty bad bet to sit on that pitch. Now, are the Yankees aware that sometimes Josh will throw a curve with two strikes? Of course. But I don't see how there's anything particularly newsworthy or unusual in that tidbit.

[Eric Van]

1 - definitely: Beckett was throwing slurves to the Yankees, with more horizontal than vertical movement. A slurve is fine if you want to throw a brushback pitch that fades back over the inside corner (as Sabathia threw to Ellsbury for a called strike 3). If it's going right down Broadway, it needs all the spin converted into vertical drop. Beckett grooved a lot of curves (see A-Rod chart below).

I can't see any difference in his average CB in this game than previously. For instance, he was getting 7.7 horizontal, -4.7 vertical. Against the A's on 7/27, when he fanned six on CB swings and misses, he was getting 6.6 and -4.1, respectively. In fact, he was squaring up the curve (again, on average) more than usual, getting 1473 RPM on average where he's usually in the mid 1300's. (Higher RPM = closer the spin axis is to perpendicular to flight of pitch, rather than parallel to it like a slider.)

Now, if you look at the individual CBs that broke less, and where they were located, that may tell a different story. But the problem is definitely not in an inability to get on top or square up the pitch. It's all command.

Let me agree with those who feel the Olney "insight" isn't. He throws a ton of two-strike curves because most MLB hitters swing and miss at it. His proper two-strike curve is located in a place where it can't be hit; it's thrown preferentially with two strikes because the batter has no choice but to swing at it.

[kmueller]

As I posted in the premature CY thread, it's not 2 bad starts, it's 3.
He put up good numbers vs. Detroit in the start before @Toronto, but the weather was cool and wet, and he gave up several very hard hit warning track shots, as well as 2 HR. So whatever it is, it's been happening for 3 starts now.

I was there, he was throwing very well. A few guys got solid contact, (solo HRs, warning track), but overall the Tigers looked a little lost. They didn't get a hit off him until Guillen led off the 5th with a HR. Their next hit wasn't for 7 more hitters, another solo shot. Then a single. That was it.

You have got to call that a good start, not a bad start. Does not fit in at all with the past 2.

[paulftodd]

FWIW, Beckett is averaging 7 pitches more per game than last year, perhaps a bit of arm fatigue kicking in. But as long as the pen gets their rest, all is well.

Are the HR's all on Beckett though?

Looking at the HR's being hit around the AL in August, I wonder if a juiced ball is part of the HR explosion. An incredible 1.29 HR/team-game in August , the highest ever in any August going back to 1998 (average August since 1998 is 1.11), and well above July's 1.11 and the season average of 1.15. Adjusted for the toilets HR inflation, with only 7 games played in August, August is still 1.28. The last time this monthly total was exceeded was May and June in 2000 (1.30) and the last time the season HR rate was topped was in 2000. (Calculated from B-refs HR and GS in league splits)

FWIW, the 3 teams most seriously affected by the August HR explosion, both hitting PLUS pitching are:

Red Sox 1.86 (hit), 1.71 (pitch)
TBR 1.65 (hit), 1.45 (pitch)
LAA, 1.50 (hit), 1.60 (pitch)

The Yankees are hitting them but not allowing so many (1.80-hit, 1.10 pitch). Baltimore and KCR are allowing a ton, but not hitting so many (1.50 and 1.57 allowed respectively).

The rest are around the league average for the month, most below. The Indians must be soaking their balls in water though, 0.65 hit, 0.60 pitch. Good for the pitchers I guess, unless the bugs came out early, V-Mart is fortunate to be free.

If steroid testing is working, why are balls flying out of the parks at rates not seen even in the steroid era. Maybe the steroids were a red herring. HR's are good for baseball attendance and revenues. I digress. Back to Beckett, his HR totals as a Red Sox look like this.

2006 - 36 HR (league HR rate 1.12)
2007 - 17 HR (league HR rate 0.99)
2008 - 18 HR (league HR rate 1.00)
2009 - 20 HR & counting (league HR rate 1.15)

Of course, Beckett had only allowed 10 HR's until the last 3 games, but Lesters HR rate was way up early in the season and while he does not allow so many now it still is up (HR/9 jump from 0.6 in 2008 to 0.8), not to mention Daisuke (HR/9 0.6 to 2.1 despite the same K and BB rate), so you have to wonder about the ball even if there is nothing conclusive here. [insert "but MLB says the ball is the same and conduct testing to verify this"]

Fact is, HR's are way up around the league, and it's not all on the toilet. One must take this into account in any analysis.

[drtooth]

Last 2 starts

Halladay--11 IP, 20 H, 13 R, 11 ER

Lincecum--13 IP, 9 H , 8 R, 8 BB, 9 K.

Verlander--13.2 IP, 16 H , 7 R.

Even the best of them can have a couple of rough starts in a row. Let's see how the next couple of starts go.

[behindthepen]

I was there, he was throwing very well. A few guys got solid contact, (solo HRs, warning track), but overall the Tigers looked a little lost. They didn't get a hit off him until Guillen led off the 5th with a HR. Their next hit wasn't for 7 more hitters, another solo shot. Then a single. That was it.

You have got to call that a good start, not a bad start. Does not fit in at all with the past 2.

http://www.baseball-...200908120.shtml
http://mlb.mlb.com/m...mp;mode=gameday
http://brooksbasebal.....mlb_bosmlb_1/

The result was fine.
The first 3 innings were perfect, although in the 3rd Avila hits one to the warning track in RF.
In the 5th there is a (first-pitch) HR by Guillen, and the rest is clean except for another full count. So at this point, overall pretty good. However the speed of his FB goes from 95-96 to 93-94.
Next, the offense scores 5 runs and they have a pitching change. So in the 6th when Granderson hits one to the RF fence that just barely stays in, maybe thats not a surprise, because Becks has been on the bench for a while.
Comes back for the 7th and gives up the 2nd HR of the game (ahead 1-2, btw).

So the plus is a 7 inning 2 run performance. Good result. Actually a great result. You could even rationalize the long shots he gave up with being ahead so much and taking advantage of the weather. If this start was in between a couple of other quality starts, it wouldn't even be worth analyzing. But it's not. We've got a guy who suddenly has gopher-itis.

The bad news from that start:
-Lost velocity through the game.
-Gave up 2 absolute bombs.
- In 70 degree weather with a light mist, gave up 2 warning track shots that would have been out on a normal summer night.

The good news overall I think is that this all appears to be Beckett just being super-aggressive with his FB. While he lost velocity in a couple of these starts it wasn't alarmingly so.

[Maalox]

Very simply, his curve hasn't curved enough. When the curve is breaking sharply, Beckett is either a) unhittable, because he is throwing the curve for strikes or b) decent despite being unable to throw the curve for strikes because enough people will chase it.

If the curve is hanging or breaking sort of roundly (as was the case all of his last start except for a couple pitches) he's going to going to get hammered when he throws it.

That said I don't think you can really read too much into the curve not working in two consecutive starts. It happens. It's not inconsistent with a more serious problem, but it doesn't suggest one either.

If you go back and read the game thread people were complaining about the Yankees first-pitch swinging at fastballs and Beckett not changing his approach. (Notwithstanding the fan furore a couple months back that Beckett was throwing too many curves, every team in the league knows he relies heavily on the fastball early in counts.) Well, the reason may just have been that he knew the curve wasn't working and knew what that meant. He couldn't effectively change his approach to lead with a curve ball that is soft. He's got a cut fastball that doesn't move side-to-side, a change that doesn't move at all and I think he has something else that drops - I guess it's a sinker; he doesn't often lead these because there's no lateral movement in any of them. They're fine to throw in for variety but they are not first pitches.

That he apparently insisted on staying in the game, and that his three or four good curves came late in the outing, suggest to me that he is neither hurt nor injured. He's just lost his curve ball for awhile. It happens. Some guys lose a pitch for a year or more and are almost out of baseball and then it comes back again.

[C4CRVT]

I was unfortunately at last Friday night's game. Everyone's all over Penny about sucking balls and happy that he's out of the rotation but I didn't think the Yankees hit him particularly hard, just smartly. They kept finding the lines. It seemed to be more of a hitting 'em where they're pitched thing not a crushing straight fastballs thing.

Similarly, I think the issue with Beckett wasn't that his stuff sucked. I think that for whatever reason, he gets it in his head that he's going to pitch aggressively and eat some innings, especially when he has a lead. The Yankees were all over his game plan.

I haven't done the research on his numbers with high run support but I remember this since his firt month here. His fourth game for us in Toronto in 06 was my first memorable experience with this phenomenon.

He trusts his stuff and executed his game plan. Call it arrogance or what you want. Most here complain about the Daisuke approach; this to me is the opposite end of the spectrum of nibbleyness (neither of course is really effective).

I'm not sure to what extent the suspension has deterred him from pitching inside. For all we know, he might have gotten an earful from MLB/ FO and is trying to stay out of trouble.

I'm glad that the earlier posts from the pitchfx fellows lead me to the conclusion that he's not hiding an injury or mechanically in a funk. I think he makes some adjustments to his location/ pitch sequence and he's fine from here on out.

Edited by C4CRVT, 25 August 2009 - 09:13 AM.

[NomarRS05]

Bump.

Beckett looked atrocious again Friday night.

5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 HR and 10 base runners allowed on 107 pitches. And if Travis Snider's foul ball in the third inning had gone a couple feet to the left we would be talking about 8 ER and 3 HR allowed in 5.0 innings.

Given that his velocity is down a couple MPH and that his control clearly isn't there, it's time to start worrying that he's pitching through an injury.

[Burt Reynoldz]

Semi-random question, but does Beckett really have Facebook? I'm friends with "Josh Beckett" on FB, and it seems kind of legit, but I don't know. The whole thing seems odd. In any case, if this person is really him, here's his current status message:

Josh Beckett "is f'ing freaked. This innocent little stalker has become a little more than that. "

Umm. Maybe this is why he's having problems on the mound?

Edited by Burt Reynoldz, 02 September 2009 - 01:21 PM.

[Bowlerman9]

Semi-random question, but does Beckett really have Facebook? I'm friends with "Josh Beckett" on FB, and it seems kind of legit, but I don't know. The whole thing seems odd. In any case, if this person is really him, here's his current status message:

Josh Beckett "is f'ing freaked. This innocent little stalker has become a little more than that. "

Umm. Maybe this is why he's having problems on the mound?

Stalking causes a decrease in velocity? Maybe if all of SoSH stalks Mariano Rivera, his cutter will top out at 84.

[CaptainLaddie]

Semi-random question, but does Beckett really have Facebook? I'm friends with "Josh Beckett" on FB, and it seems kind of legit, but I don't know. The whole thing seems odd. In any case, if this person is really him, here's his current status message:

Josh Beckett "is f'ing freaked. This innocent little stalker has become a little more than that. "

Umm. Maybe this is why he's having problems on the mound?

It's not real. Are you joking me?

[Burt Reynoldz]

It's not real. Are you joking me?

Totes serious, bro.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

It is only the second inning and he already looks like complete dogshit once again. He has allowed another 2 home runs as well. He has absolutely nothing.

It is clear to me that there is a serious problem with Josh Beckett. This is now the 4th straight start in which he's been hit very hard. If it's mechanical, it's something neither he nor the coaching staff has been able to address at all. If it's health he needs to be shut down at once to find out exactly what the hell is wrong with him.

This is edging out of slump territory into "could easily derail the entire season" territory.

[TheYellowDart5]

This is edging out of slump territory into "could easily derail the entire season" territory.

This is no slump. His velocity's down and his location has vanished. So either his mechanics are completely out of sync, or he's hurt and just hasn't said anything.

[NomarRS05]

Per the ESPN broadcast, Farrell and the Red Sox insist that he is 100% healthy and that he's having mechanical issues. It seems strange that a guy who was lighting the league on fire through the first 4 1/2 months of the season can suddenly struggle this badly with his mechanics, but I suppose it's possible. Sutcliffe mentioned that he was overstriding. Anyone else notice anything off with his mechanics?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if they're hiding an injury. It figures that the team would have investigated that possibility and that, if he is hurt, they would at least have some idea of what's going on. If that's true, it may be time to shut him down for a little while and let him rest up. Any replacement level pitcher would be a better alternative to what we've seen out of Beckett lately.

[RedSox04]

Is it possible he's just going through a "dead-arm" period? He usually has a stint or two on the DL, which he hasn't had this year. Maybe the innings are catching up to him and a two week rest would be the best way to go to get him fresh for the remainder of the season and the post-season.

Of course, the downside of that leaves you with a rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Wakefield, Byrd, and Tazawa and a much closer wildcard race, but if he's going to pitch like this, what's the difference?

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

Per the ESPN broadcast, Farrell and the Red Sox insist that he is 100% healthy and that he's having mechanical issues. It seems strange that a guy who was lighting the league on fire through the first 4 1/2 months of the season can suddenly struggle this badly with his mechanics, but I suppose it's possible. Sutcliffe mentioned that he was overstriding. Anyone else notice anything off with his mechanics?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if they're hiding an injury. It figures that the team would have investigated that possibility and that, if he is hurt, they would at least have some idea of what's going on. If that's true, it may be time to shut him down for a little while and let him rest up. Any replacement level pitcher would be a better alternative to what we've seen out of Beckett lately.

FWIW, this stretch is actually fairly similar to the April he had after his Opening Day gem. His other four starts in April were
21 2/3 IP, 34 H, 9.14 ERA, 13BB, 21K, 3 HR

His three starts prior to tonight(which is more of the same) were
18 1/3 IP, 23 H, 9.81 ERA, 6BB, 18K, 10 HR

He was giving up lots of hits and walking people in April. He's giving up home runs now.

I don't know if what was malfunctioning in April is the same as now, but this is not the first really bad stretch for Beckett this season.

[Green Monster]

IIRC the same thing happened last year. Beckett struggled down the stretch, the Sox said he was fine, and then as they entered the playoffs we learned he had been pitching with a strained oblique..............something is wrong.

Edited by Green Monster, 02 September 2009 - 08:08 PM.

[NomarRS05]

FWIW, this stretch is actually fairly similar to the April he had after his Opening Day gem. His other four starts in April were
21 2/3 IP, 34 H, 9.14 ERA, 13BB, 21K, 3 HR

His three starts prior to tonight(which is more of the same) were
18 1/3 IP, 23 H, 9.81 ERA, 6BB, 18K, 10 HR

He was giving up lots of hits and walking people in April. He's giving up home runs now.

I don't know if what was malfunctioning in April is the same as now, but this is not the first really bad stretch for Beckett this season.

The big difference there is the HR allowed. Counting tonight that's actually 12 HR allowed over this four game stretch compared to the 3 HR allowed in the four game stretch in April. Bad luck probably had a little to do with that run, while lately he's just been plain terrible.

edit: Of course, Beckett looked very good over the last three innings of tonight's outing vs. Tampa. Did Farrell correct his mechanics in the dugouts after the 3rd?

Edited by NomarRS05, 02 September 2009 - 09:56 PM.

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

The big difference there is the HR allowed. Counting tonight that's actually 12 HR allowed over this 3+ game stretch compared to the 3 HR allowed in the four game stretch in April. Bad luck probably had a little to do with that run, while lately he's just been plain terrible.

I agree that the home runs are a new twist and a big concern. But 1.56 H/IP and 5.4 BB/9 were a lot more than bad luck. He was pretty terrible then as well.

[Al Zarilla]

I still think hitters are digging in against him with no fear. 0 walks, 9Ks tonight. I loathe walks and don't like HBPs much either, but he needs to throw some brushback pitches. Get some of the fear of God and Bob Gibson, Don Drysdale or Pedro Martinez going. Of course, if Farrell ever suggested this, Beckett may be too stubborn to heed it anyway. Said all that but still, on the first homer (Crawford), the ball was right down the middle. Then again, if he gave him some chin music once in a while, Crawford may not be so comfortable in there.

[Eric Van]

edit: Of course, Beckett looked very good over the last three innings of tonight's outing vs. Tampa. Did Farrell correct his mechanics in the dugouts after the 3rd?

That was very unusual.

Let's define "torched early" as giving up 4 or more ER in fewer innings, i.e., 4 ER before the 4th is over, 5 before the 5th is over.

This is the 23rd time Beckett has been torched early in his Sox career, and only the 8th time he settled down and pitched well afterward. Usually he gets hammered for serious further damage.

In 2007 he was torched early 4 times and settled down 3 times.

He has been torched early 4 times by the Orioles and has settled down every time. In fact, those had been the last 4 times he'd settled down.

These two exceptions -- 2007 or facing the O's -- account for 6 of the 8 times he's settled down (one of the O's starts was in '07). The other instance was 8/14/06 against the Tigers.

They do come in bunches -- 7 of the previous 22 torchings were followed by one in his next start. This is the first time he's been torched three times in a row.

Unfortunately, settling down is not a guarantee of success in the next start. In three of the 7 back-to-back torchings, he settled down in the first start. However, his average ERA over his next three starts after being torched and settling down is a bit better than after not settling down (3.33 vs 3.82).

[NickEsasky]

Didn't see this mentioned anywhere so if it is hidden somewhere in a game thread I apologize, but apparently last night Sutcliffe pointed out that currently Beckett's stride is too long and that is likely causing his decrease in velocity and would likely also be causing his issue with location and the mixed results on his CB. It would also explain why we heard Beckett isn't getting on top of his fastball and curve.

It's Sutcliffe so take it for what it's worth but it would be best case scenario and easily fixed versus hiding an injury. If it is the reason though you have to wonder why it hasn't been fixed but that is a question for the Farrell thread.

[JimD]

Didn't see this mentioned anywhere so if it is hidden somewhere in a game thread I apologize, but apparently last night Sutcliffe pointed out that currently Beckett's stride is too long and that is likely causing his decrease in velocity and would likely also be causing his issue with location and the mixed results on his CB. It would also explain why we heard Beckett isn't getting on top of his fastball and curve.

It's Sutcliffe so take it for what it's worth but it would be best case scenario and easily fixed versus hiding an injury. If it is the reason though you have to wonder why it hasn't been fixed but that is a question for the Farrell thread.

Like the Smoltz pitch-tipping suggestions, this just strikes me as way too obvious for the Red Sox to miss. I would be shocked if they don't have people in the organization who videotape every pitch and watch for exactly those types of tendencies.

[yecul]

Like the Smoltz pitch-tipping suggestions, this just strikes me as way too obvious for the Red Sox to miss. I would be shocked if they don't have people in the organization who videotape every pitch and watch for exactly those types of tendencies.

Identifying, advising, and accepting said advise are all separate things and not all are under their control.

Yes, they should be able to ID something like that. Yes, they should talk about adjustements. No, they can't force Beckett to do it -- or maintain complete focus on his behalf (or whatever other reasons it may still occur despite the latter events).

Is that the answer? No, but assuming it is mechanical and identified and coached, it still might not get addressed. Beckett is still human, after all, and getting out of a bad habit is harder than getting into it.

I'm with SJH. I hope it truly is mechanical. There is hope for that to improve. I am looking to his next start for that to begin hoping he can build off the way he finished the game rather than the way he started it. If it's an injury then they will have trouble in the playoffs.

[Foulkey Reese]

Like the Smoltz pitch-tipping suggestions, this just strikes me as way too obvious for the Red Sox to miss. I would be shocked if they don't have people in the organization who videotape every pitch and watch for exactly those types of tendencies.

I would also be shocked. But remember that it took a Sosher to pin down how Paul Byrd was tipping his pitches last year when Tek and Farrell couldn't do it.

[Todd Benzinger]

Didn't see this mentioned anywhere so if it is hidden somewhere in a game thread I apologize, but apparently last night Sutcliffe pointed out that currently Beckett's stride is too long and that is likely causing his decrease in velocity and would likely also be causing his issue with location and the mixed results on his CB. It would also explain why we heard Beckett isn't getting on top of his fastball and curve.

It's Sutcliffe so take it for what it's worth but it would be best case scenario and easily fixed versus hiding an injury. If it is the reason though you have to wonder why it hasn't been fixed but that is a question for the Farrell thread.

Farrell actually said something similar on the NESN broadcast; he explained that Beckett was having some mechanical issues that were keeping him from getting on top of his pitches and causing him to "throw uphill." He didn't specifically mention stride, though. Still, it sounded like Farrell had identified problems and they were working to get Beckett to correct them, which JB seemed to do in the last three innings.

[NickEsasky]

Farrell actually said something similar on the NESN broadcast; he explained that Beckett was having some mechanical issues that were keeping him from getting on top of his pitches and causing him to "throw uphill." He didn't specifically mention stride, though. Still, it sounded like Farrell had identified problems and they were working to get Beckett to correct them, which JB seemed to do in the last three innings.

Well this makes sense then. Lengthening your stride would certainly cause the "throwing uphill" phenomenon. Hopefully this is truly the issue as opposed to an injury and Beckett gets it all sorted out.