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I Hate JD... But I love Drew


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#1 Soxfan in Fla


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 10:28 AM

QUOTE (TomRicardo @ Aug 21 2009, 03:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Each time everyone told you were an idiot and you continued talking. Congratulations you now our personal Joe Morgan. Fangraphs has JD Drew's value this year at 13.1 million with a month left to play. Last year he exceeded 14 million as well. So far he has given 37.2 million in value while getting paid about 38 million dollars. Not a bad contract


These stats are seriously worth $13.1 mill at this point? Wow, that doesn't get you much.

.259 15 48 .374 .468
Avg HR RBI OBP Slug

#2 Plympton91


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 11:52 AM

I don't know about the exact quantification, but certainly an OBP near 380 with a SLG near 470 combined with very good RF defense (half in the hardest RF in baseball [still true?]) is worth a whole lot of money.

It'd be nice if Drew were a better RBI guy (without messing up the OPS components) and it'd be nice if he was not always a day away from back or leg troubles, but most of the time when he's out there, he produces just fine.

I'd hypothesize that JD Drew is in the top half of free agent signings in Red Sox history. Maybe that's an indictment of the Red Sox history with free agents more than praise of Drew, but IMHO, he's basically earning his money.



#3 Cuzittt


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 12:39 PM

Split out of the Gonzalez thread... since people can't seem to stop talking about JD Drew there.

#4 TomRicardo


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 01:42 PM

QUOTE (Soxfan in Fla @ Aug 22 2009, 11:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
These stats are seriously worth $13.1 mill at this point? Wow, that doesn't get you much.

.259 15 48 .374 .468
Avg HR RBI OBP Slug


The defense has a large part of that but the high obp is very good too. OBP is the most important hitting stat. It is as close as you get to a true measure success and failure as a hitter. Either you made an out or you didn't.

#5 jose melendez


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 02:01 PM

Check out the list of the top 25 player salaries in MLB. I can't say that I love the Drew signing, particularly given his injury risk and the fact that I think we could have gotten him for less, but there are some much, much worse players making way more money.

Zito at $18
Hunter at $18
Hudson at $15
Schmidt at $15
DLowe at $15
Rivera at $15
Tejada at $14.8

There are of course some players below him who are much better deals, but there are also some real squanders there

Beltre $13.4
Millwood $13.3
Ted Lilly $13
Posada $13
Suppan !!!! $12.75
Mike Lowell $12.5
Troy Glaus $12.1
BJ Ryan $12
Eric Byrnes $11.6
Travis Hafner $11.6


When you look at a lot of the other contracts in MLB $13.1 starts to look about right for old DJ Dru. There are some really horrible contracts out there and Drew is not one of them.



#6 jon abbey


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 02:39 PM

QUOTE (jose melendez @ Aug 22 2009, 03:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
there are some much, much worse players making way more money.

...
Rivera at $15
...


Jose, I know you've been out of the country, but you might want to check out what kind of season Rivera is having and then take him off your list.


#7 jose melendez


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 02:43 PM

Point taken, but it doesn't change the larger point.

#8 Pumpsie


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 02:53 PM

QUOTE (jon abbey @ Aug 22 2009, 03:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Jose, I know you've been out of the country, but you might want to check out what kind of season Rivera is having and then take him off your list.


The thing with Rivera is that, although he's having another great year, he's getting about $1m for every 15 outs he records. I doubt that there's any team in baseball, except for the Yankees, who would consider that a great deal. it IS a great deal for the Yankees because money is no impediment to them and those are important outs. But that would not be a great contract for any other team, including the Sox.

#9 FanSinceBoggs

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Posted 22 August 2009 - 02:59 PM

I'm not all that displeased with Drew's contract. It does seem a bit excessive now, but the market has changed.

And Drew is a two-way player who provides quality defense in right field.

When it comes to excessive contracts, I look no further than David Ortiz. Ortiz can't field, can't run, and couldn't hit for most of the 2009 season. Nevertheless, the Red Sox are paying him 12.5 million this year. When you factor in his meager contributions to the 2009 team, that 12.5 million must be one of the most absurd payouts in the history of American sports.






#10 jon abbey


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 03:02 PM

QUOTE (Pumpsie @ Aug 22 2009, 03:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The thing with Rivera is that, although he's having another great year, he's getting about $1m for every 15 outs he records. I doubt that there's any team in baseball, except for the Yankees, who would consider that a great deal. it IS a great deal for the Yankees because money is no impediment to them and those are important outs. But that would not be a great contract for any other team, including the Sox.


I wasn't calling it a great contract, but I'm pretty sure he's not a "much, more worse player" than JD Drew in 2009. That was my only point.

Edited by jon abbey, 22 August 2009 - 03:03 PM.


#11 Pumpsie


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 03:35 PM

QUOTE (jon abbey @ Aug 22 2009, 04:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I wasn't calling it a great contract, but I'm pretty sure he's not a "much, more worse player" than JD Drew in 2009. That was my only point.


Rivera's a great player, no question, and he's having a great year, but we ARE talking about contracts. The Yanks are overpaying him a bit, which is why he's on Jose's list, but that's their perogative.

#12 jose melendez


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 03:38 PM

No, he was on my list because I hadn't looked at his stats this year, I'll concede that. All of that said, there are some spectacularly awful players making more than Drew.

#13 Reverend


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 06:34 PM

For those in the camp that thinks Drew was a bad signing, what sort of numbers do you think he should be putting up to make it worth it? Serious question: What would make his salary acceptable?

That's the non-time adjusted issue though. As for me, taking into account the situation when they signed him and what was available and such, hating Drew seems a bit like a guy crawling out of a desert shouting as best as his parched throat is capable, "Thirsty! So... thirsty..." and when the locals run and get him some water, he looks at it and says, "Do you have Mr. Pibb?"

#14 drleather2001


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 07:07 PM

QUOTE (FanSinceBoggs @ Aug 22 2009, 02:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm not all that displeased with Drew's contract. It does seem a bit excessive now, but the market has changed.

And Drew is a two-way player who provides quality defense in right field.

When it comes to excessive contracts, I look no further than David Ortiz. Ortiz can't field, can't run, and couldn't hit for most of the 2009 season. Nevertheless, the Red Sox are paying him 12.5 million this year. When you factor in his meager contributions to the 2009 team, that 12.5 million must be one of the most absurd payouts in the history of American sports.


It's bad, but it's not absurdly bad. Absurd level awfulness is reserved for situations like Baltimore paying Albert Belle $36MM over 3 seasons for 0 at bats.

Edited by drleather2001, 22 August 2009 - 07:07 PM.


#15 Buck Showalter


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 09:57 PM

QUOTE (drleather2001 @ Aug 22 2009, 08:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It's bad, but it's not absurdly bad. Absurd level awfulness is reserved for situations like Baltimore paying Albert Belle $36MM over 3 seasons for 0 at bats.


No kidding....there wasn't much thought provided to the rant that you responded to.

I mean Carl Pavano & Mike Hampton...just off the top of my head.

Someone needs to get a grip.

#16 Mike Greenwall

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Posted 22 August 2009 - 10:37 PM

I think if Drew tipped over the water jug, broke his bat over his knee after a strike-out and cried in interviews, he would be considered a bargain.
FanSinceBoggs said it well. JD Drew is not stealing from the Red Sox this year. cough-bigpapi-cough



edit: can't write tonight

Edited by Mike Greenwall, 22 August 2009 - 10:40 PM.


#17 paulftodd


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Posted 22 August 2009 - 11:10 PM

QUOTE (Reverend @ Aug 23 2009, 07:34 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
For those in the camp that thinks Drew was a bad signing, what sort of numbers do you think he should be putting up to make it worth it? Serious question: What would make his salary acceptable?

That's the non-time adjusted issue though. As for me, taking into account the situation when they signed him and what was available and such, hating Drew seems a bit like a guy crawling out of a desert shouting as best as his parched throat is capable, "Thirsty! So... thirsty..." and when the locals run and get him some water, he looks at it and says, "Do you have Mr. Pibb?"


I have a bit of JD fatigue, but never mind.

1. For me I am ok with the Red Sox overpaying to fill a hole, and rolling the dice in the hope the man who gives insurance agents nightmares stays healthy for 5 years is fine with me.

2. What I define as a bad signing is a contract thats pays a player significantly more than he will produce over the life of the contract ( we still have 2 more years of older JD ahead of us).

3. Now if you feel you have no other choice, you must sign JD Drew or the team will flounder at 500 for the next 3 -5 years, well certainly, you will overpay him. This is what we call a strategically bad signing.

As for what would make JD Drews salary not a bad signing. Simple, produce offensively what he averaged 2004-2006 and play 135 games per year (which he failed to do last year)

In 2004-2006 he went 293/415/532/946
In 2007-2009 he went 270/385/466/851

Also, hitting 80 - 100 RBI instead of 65 RBI (48 SO FAR THIS YEAR).

After his STELLAR 2004 season, Fan Graphs said JD's value was 25.7 million and he signed a 5 year deal of 55 million over 5 years with the LAD.

After his 2006 season, Fan Graphs said his value was 16.x million, and he opted out and signed a 5 year deal for 70 million with Boston.

Average salary did increase between 2004 and 2006, lets say 20%. So lets call that 5 year deal by LAD 66 million, about the same as the Red Sox paid him. But JD Drew was 2 years older, missed another 1/2 season in 2005, and his 2006 season was nowhere near as good as 2004, and he has not matched his 2006 season with the Red Sox. His numbers looked good for 2008, but he missed a ton of games and his season averages were skewed due to a great June when he carried the team against interleague opponents ( and missing 2 months of the season gives his Junes numbers a larger weighting).

Ben Zobrist according to Fan Graphs is worth 28 million this year, so if you want to use that as your bible, fine. Bobby Abreu is worth 12.2 million per FG (JD 13.0-went up almost 3 million in a week or so, WTF?). Ok, so I will agree that JD is worth 800K more than Bobby Abreu . Todays depressed market has Abreu priced at 5 million, but I understand we can not judge JD by that, and I would not want Abreu in RF.

That said, JD is is a good player when he is healthy and on the field, despite his poor RBI totals. He is not one of the teams major problems and the FO can afford to overpay him, and good for him for getting a good deal. But IMHO, it was not a good signing in terms of getting what you pay for.

However, if he can carry the team the way he did last June , and the Red Sox win the division, I will credit JD 25 million for that, and agree he is well worth his salary. Not that my approval is all that important, right JD? laugh.gif - all the way to the bank.



#18 SoxScout


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 03:55 PM

Theo was on with Felger and Mazz today and talked a lot about Drew, I pulled out that part of the discussion to post it here. If you want to hear the full interview go here.



#19 bosox79

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Posted 30 September 2009 - 04:13 PM

I looked up Drews splits and Im shocked at just how consistent he has been this year on a month to month basis not including July. And In August/September (post all star break ftm) he's been a beast.

I never really get the JD hate, even the year he struggled here he came up huge in the playoffs. And hes done nothing but hit in 2008 and 2009.

#20 jimc

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Posted 30 September 2009 - 04:39 PM

He's done it, as usual - and no doubt why he can be a little frustrating to watch at times - by being exceptionally selective. He just won't swing at pitches out of the zone; here are his swing% numbers against a Youkilis benchmark:

Drew and Youkilis 2009
O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing%
Drew 15.30% 61.10% 37.50%
Youkilis 18.80% 58.80% 38.70%
League Average 25.10% 65.90% 45.20%


Business as usual makes for another very nice year for Drew.

#21 xjack


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 05:21 PM

He's been really, really good. According to Fangraphs, he's actually outperformed his salary.... JD, I apologize for everything I wrote in the offseason.

#22 Eric Van


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 05:22 PM

QUOTE (bosox79 @ Sep 30 2009, 03:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I looked up Drews splits and Im shocked at just how consistent he has been this year on a month to month basis not including July. And In August/September (post all star break ftm) he's been a beast.

I never really get the JD hate, even the year he struggled here he came up huge in the playoffs. And hes done nothing but hit in 2008 and 2009.

He had one bad six-week stretch -- from June 13 (just after I declared him "June Cleaver") to July 26, he hit .188 / .295 / .321. Since July 27 he's .355 / .457 / .645.

Games he didn't start vs. RHP:

4/29 (out with quad)
6/7
7/31, 8/1
8/13, 8/16 (in Texas, also didn't face LHP on 8/15)
9/13 game 1 (had day game of DH off)
9/24 (had getaway night game off)

I often note when a guy is out the lineup with a minor injury, but apparently failed to do so a few times with J.D. this year. But it looks like he missed 6 games with minor injuries.

#23 sibpin

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Posted 30 September 2009 - 05:26 PM

QUOTE (xjack @ Sep 30 2009, 06:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
According to Fangraphs, he's actually outperformed his salary.


Not just this season, but to date:

2007: $5.5M
2008: $18.6M
2009: $19.3M
Total: $43.4M ($14.5M/season)

And the WAR numbers at Fangraphs don't include the postseason (although their fielding numbers seem a bit inflated).

#24 paulftodd


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 05:28 PM

QUOTE (bosox79 @ Oct 1 2009, 05:13 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I looked up Drews splits and Im shocked at just how consistent he has been this year on a month to month basis not including July. And In August/September (post all star break ftm) he's been a beast.

I never really get the JD hate, even the year he struggled here he came up huge in the playoffs. And hes done nothing but hit in 2008 and 2009.


Three numbers, 64, 64 and 66 (RBI)

How about 3 more, 135, 108, 131 (GS)

It's not really hate, it's an objective analysis of his contract and worth, no need to repeat whats already been said.

On Aug 1, JD was hitting 250 with an 821 OPS. He has had a nice run since Aug 1 going 333/444/624/1068 with 10 HR in 42 GS boosting his season cumulative stats to levels we expect.

At this point you have to say he had a nice season after a not so great start (as of August 1). Last year he missed too many games and defensively he did not seem as good. So I credit JD with his first good year with the Red Sox with 130 or more GS. Nice finish for JD. If the next 2 years are like the last 2 months, I will have nothing more to say about his contract (when do we start a thread talking about an extension laugh.gif ).

#25 bstoker7

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Posted 30 September 2009 - 05:50 PM

But why even quote the RBI stats? Did you bother listening to the Epstein interview?

Theo explained why the organization isn't concerned with total RBI numbers. To paraphrase: Drew's skill-set isn't neccessarily conducive to producing big counting stats. He does the most important thing an offensive player can do, which is not make outs. That's why he has great runs scored stats. He also said the business model allows for the organization to employ players who play at a high-quality for 130 games per season, rather than use guys who play 155 games at a lesser level because they play hurt.

Granted, 108 games played last season sucked, but it happens.

Bottom line is the guy can play, and the Red Sox right fielders have combined to be at the top of the league offensively.


#26 Steve Dillard


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 06:03 PM

Can't remember a single memorable play all season except his extra inning catch vs. the Yankees.

He's like our ARod, except ARod actually mixes in an occasional game winner. Still waiting for his walk-off walk.
Borne out by the stats. With runners in scoring position, he's at .213, but .399 OBP. He's rather keep the line moving than drive them in. And batting 6-8th, that line usually stops next with Alex Gonzalez or Jason Varitek, in other words, walking doesn't achieve anything except give him stats.

The fact that Tito sits him vs. tough lefties, and moves him from 6-8th in the lineup shows just how critical he is to the Sox.

And he's their highest paid positional player.

That's the end of my case.

Edited by Steve Dillard, 30 September 2009 - 06:08 PM.


#27 Resonance Wright


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 06:04 PM

Why dog the guy for RBIs? Seems like a reach to me. Pick something that doesn't depend on how well other people are getting on base before him if you want to single the guy out.

#28 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 06:19 PM

QUOTE (Steve Dillard @ Sep 30 2009, 07:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Can't remember a single memorable play all season except his extra inning catch vs. the Yankees.

Which clearly doesn't make him worth $13 million.

Melky Cabrera has more walkoff hits than JD Drew this year. Does that make Melky a more valuable player?
QUOTE
He's like our ARod, except ARod actually mixes in an occasional game winner. Still waiting for his walk-off walk.

God forbid this team have someone with Alex Rodriguez's skill set.
QUOTE
Borne out by the stats. With runners in scoring position, he's at .213, but .399 OBP. He's rather keep the line moving than drive them in.

And God forbid he do the single most valuable thing a hitter can do in getting on base at an outstanding clip.
QUOTE
And batting 6-8th, that line usually stops next with Alex Gonzalez or Jason Varitek, in other words, walking doesn't achieve anything except give him stats.

So it's Drew's fault that Varitek is a corpse and Gonzalez isn't a good hitter. Good to know.
QUOTE
The fact that Tito sits him vs. tough lefties, and moves him from 6-8th in the lineup shows just how critical he is to the Sox.

1. Francona sits him against LHP because Drew is a lefthander and this team has a RH'ed hitter in Baldelli who obliterates LHP. That's just good managing.
2. Lineup position has nothing to do with how critical Drew is to the team.
QUOTE
And he's their highest paid positional player.

So? That's because he was a free agent brought in after his arbitration years. Trust me, if someone like Youkilis or Pedroia or Ortiz or Ellsbury had been acquired the same way Drew was (and at the same point in their careers that Drew was in when he was signed), they would make far more than $13 million.
QUOTE
That's the end of my case.

And quite the case it was.

#29 Quintanariffic

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Posted 30 September 2009 - 06:29 PM

QUOTE (Steve Dillard @ Sep 30 2009, 06:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Borne out by the stats. With runners in scoring position, he's at .213, but .399 OBP. He's rather keep the line moving than drive them in. And batting 6-8th, that line usually stops next with Alex Gonzalez or Jason Varitek, in other words, walking doesn't achieve anything except give him stats.

Apparently you failed to notice that JD Drew has 82 runs scored this year, just 8 fewer than Ellsbury despite over 120 fewer PA. Aren't we above making stuff up on this board?

#30 Toe Nash

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Posted 30 September 2009 - 06:39 PM

QUOTE (Steve Dillard @ Sep 30 2009, 07:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Can't remember a single memorable play all season except his extra inning catch vs. the Yankees.

Here's a list of his most memorable offensive plays:

http://www.fangraphs...e...ason=&sort=

There's quite a few that made a big difference in winning ball games.

His cumulative WPA this year is higher than Pedroia and Ellsbury and only behind Bay, Youk, VMart and Ortiz.

This is 2009. Aren't we beyond using RBI and anecdotes to decry JD Drew?

#31 jimc

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Posted 30 September 2009 - 07:01 PM

He's also at a profoundly normal 13.88% RBI percentage for the season, ahead of such notables as Pedroia and Ellsbury. But behind Alex Rodriguez, so that's OK.

And he's had only 317 runners on base ahead of him this year in 136 games (behind even Lowell, at 368 runners on in only 117 games). If anything I'm seeing an argument to bat him higher, to take better advantage of one or both of his eye and hitting.

#32 Snodgrass'Muff


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 07:04 PM

QUOTE (Steve Dillard @ Sep 30 2009, 07:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Can't remember a single memorable play all season except his extra inning catch vs. the Yankees.

He's like our ARod, except ARod actually mixes in an occasional game winner. Still waiting for his walk-off walk.
Borne out by the stats. With runners in scoring position, he's at .213, but .399 OBP. He's rather keep the line moving than drive them in. And batting 6-8th, that line usually stops next with Alex Gonzalez or Jason Varitek, in other words, walking doesn't achieve anything except give him stats.


You have zero evidence to back this up. It's a ridiculous claim. Did it occur to you that because he has the likes of Gonzalez and Tek hitting after him that pitchers might be staying away from him, content to face a lesser hitter? I wouldn't throw him anything good either if I had Jason Varitek getting warm in the on deck circle.

#33 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 07:05 PM

QUOTE
if I had Jason Varitek getting warm in the on deck circle.

Poor choice of words there; dead bodies lose heat, they don't gain it.

#34 Eric Van


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 07:23 PM

QUOTE (Steve Dillard @ Sep 30 2009, 05:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Can't remember a single memorable play all season except his extra inning catch vs. the Yankees.

May 14th in LA, Sox have just tied the game in the top of the 8th, Abreu triples off Oki with 1 out in the bottom frame, Ramirez comes in and gets Hunter to pop up to short right, Drew throws on the dead run to nail Abreu at home to preserve the tie. That's one -- there may be others.

But it is true that he does not make a lot of spectacular Web Gem sort of plays. He also never gets a bad break or runs a bad route and as a result catches virtually everything that an OF with very good range could be expected to catch, without the inconsistency that brings most players with the same tools closer to average. I can hardly remember ever thinking "J.D. should have had that," and I can't count the number of balls hit to left center that looked like trouble that he ran down while making it look easy.


#35 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 07:55 PM

It's reached the point where I can judge someone's knowledge of baseball based on how they view JD Drew.

This is like the Pokey-Bellhorn thing all over again.

Edited by CaptainLaddie, 30 September 2009 - 08:16 PM.


#36 Quintanariffic

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Posted 30 September 2009 - 08:21 PM

QUOTE (CaptainLaddie @ Sep 30 2009, 07:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It's reached the point where I can judge someone's knowledge of baseball based on how they view JD Drew.

This is like the Pokey-Bellhorn thing all over again.

JD Drew - Baseball Rorschach Test.


#37 TomTerrific

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Posted 30 September 2009 - 08:39 PM

QUOTE (SoxScout @ Sep 30 2009, 04:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Theo was on with Felger and Mazz today and talked a lot about Drew, I pulled out that part of the discussion to post it here. If you want to hear the full interview go here.



Boy, listening to Theo's cogent points there, in direct counterpoint to Felger and Mazz's random baseless comments, made me realize just how lucky we as Sox fans are. Random aside: can you imagine what Lou Gorman would have said under similar circumstances?

Also, it made me realize how low the level of discourse on sports radio really is. (I know, a real stunner. And of course, it won't stop me from tuning in tomorrow--I guess we really do get the sports radio we deserve.)

#38 The Hit Dog

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Posted 30 September 2009 - 09:23 PM

QUOTE (CaptainLaddie @ Sep 30 2009, 08:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It's reached the point where I can judge someone's knowledge of baseball based on how they view JD Drew.

This is like the Pokey-Bellhorn thing all over again.


This is so true. I try to have this discussion with my roommate every night. A few nights ago, when he tried to say JD Drew sucks because he is owned in 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues, I shot him.

It's great to hear Theo explicitly discuss absolutely reason that Drew is good. There's something warming about hearing him shut up the two retards with things they hadn't even considered.

#39 Resonance Wright


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 10:18 PM

Hell, let other people undervalue the guy. If even one GM that'd otherwise try to sign JD Drew is more hesitant to do so because JD Drew doesn't fire the imagination and it'd be less popular with the fans, that's a win for teams like Boston.

Theo talked about the interesting dichotomy between how a lot of fans see the game and how the FO sees it, but what makes me smile is contemplating the number of baseball executives out there who actually understand that players like Drew could really help their ballclub but can't sack up and make that move. The number of writers and reporters who really get that the myopic focus on ribbies and jacks is part of a systemic misunderstanding of baseball... but they can't sell it.

I dug that Theo also had the guts to call 'em out a bit on the injury issue, too.

#40 Plympton91


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 11:02 PM

Great interview. I especially liked the attitude shown by the hosts at the end, where they acknowledged that Theo P'wned them on Drew and thanked him for bringing their Neanderthal understanding baseball into the 21st century. How about the question, "Do you get tired of having to defend JD Drew?" Moron.

Wanted to reiterate the point that the Red Sox are beyond blessed to have such a great GM and, really, overall management team. Whatever frusterations occasionally come out on this Board during the inevitable rough stretches of the season over this or that signing, trade, non-signing, or non-trade, the bottom line is that they are the most prepared, detailed, thoughtful, and committed executives we've ever had here in Boston and perhaps the best in the league.

JD Drew is one of the most underrated contributors to the success this season. I'm glad he got his due today from Theo. Even though its meaningless now, I hope he finishes with a flurry in his last handful of at bats and keeps his OBP/SLG near 400/500.

Edited by Plympton91, 30 September 2009 - 11:03 PM.


#41 MentalDisabldLst


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Posted 30 September 2009 - 11:33 PM

QUOTE
Wanted to reiterate the point that the Red Sox are beyond blessed to have such a great GM and, really, overall management team.

I now officially believe that you're not DH3.

#42 Eric Van


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Posted 01 October 2009 - 12:12 AM

QUOTE (Quintanariffic @ Sep 30 2009, 07:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
JD Drew - Baseball Rorschach Test.

Actually, I think it's Litmus.

Something substantive: there's reason to believe that RF in Fenway is tough to learn how to play. Averaging FB and UZR (both per 150), Drew in Boston has gone +1, +3, +8.


#43 Quintanariffic

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Posted 01 October 2009 - 01:05 AM

QUOTE (Eric Van @ Oct 1 2009, 12:12 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Actually, I think it's Litmus.

Something substantive: there's reason to believe that RF in Fenway is tough to learn how to play. Averaging FB and UZR (both per 150), Drew in Boston has gone +1, +3, +8.

It could be both. If you've got a simplistic view of life, that is reflected in your perspective on Drew.

#44 LondonSox

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Posted 01 October 2009 - 06:25 AM

I think as a Phillies fan you can hate JD, I'm think they need to be excluded from the test.
If you're a Sox fan, I don't know quite what to tell you. As a Sox fan on this board??? Just wow

#45 Steve Dillard


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Posted 01 October 2009 - 07:53 AM

QUOTE (LondonSox @ Oct 1 2009, 07:25 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think as a Phillies fan you can hate JD, I'm think they need to be excluded from the test.
If you're a Sox fan, I don't know quite what to tell you. As a Sox fan on this board??? Just wow



Depends on the question. If the question is "is he a good outfielder and better than Trot Nixon?" then clearly yes.
If the question is "is he one of the top 10 outfielders in the AL and worth 14 million" then no. Is he a middle of the order impact bat? With all the injuries to Youkilis and Ortiz, Francona has not put Drew in the 3 or 4 hole.

Stats are part of the answer, but the exhaultation of OPS ahead of any other stat is silly. Theo said it expressly, that the most valuable thing a player can do is to "not make outs." I disagree. Laugh all you want about the RBI stat, but the goal is to score runs. You drive runners in with hits, not walks. The value of "not making an out" depends on the situation -- heck, we all agree that intentional walks are critical in situations, even though that allows the offense to "not make an out." Why are there intentional walks? To prevent the impact batter from doing something more valuable than "not making an out" that is, to actually get a hit and drive in the run himself. So, if driving in a run is more valuable than not making an out, how does Drew fare on this more valuable function?


* RISP? .213 in 2009, .237 in 2007
* Runners on? .256 BA this year, .245 last.
* Runners on 2 outs? .178 in 2008. .213 in 2007
* Over the past three years 2006-08 he has a .229 BA with 2 outs, runners in scoring position, but a .420 OBP.

These number show that there's a reason why he's never driven in 100 RBIs. The situational RBI stat cited above, showing a 13% rate and him being "average" sounds about right. He'd rather take a walk than drive the runner in himself.

Your responses that JD Drew isn't responsible for Varitek or Gonzalez (Nick Green) batting behind him is the comment that perhaps encapsulates the disagreement the most. Drew doesn't bat "situationally" -- he doesn't change his approach depending upon the situation. Taking a walk with a runner on 2nd and 2 outs is great if this were 2003 and Mueller were batting next. But in 2009 with Varitek up next, you should expand the zone somewhat to account for the fact that they may take the bat out of your hands.

I see a $14 million player as having a job more than batting 7th and keeping the line moving toward the dead part of the lineup. It's similar to the David Ortiz/shift issue, when they employed it. He could bunt each time and get an OBP of close to .700. But everyone -- including Tito -- have said they want him to drive in runs and show power. So he doesn't bunt. He has a role, and its not OBP.

And here's another point -- he's managed to not do well at each role they asked him to fill to take advantage of his skills. Tito's positioning him in the lineup reflects his ill fit. When signed, he was originally planned to be the 5th bat, but in the 5th role he isn't an RBI guy because he prefers to get on base rather than drive the runners in. So, they put him in an OBP position -- leadoff or second -- and suddenly his OBP goes down to .350. As a result, they've had to drop him to 7th or even 8th.

Apart from stats, there is secondary evidence. Surely the baseball managers of the world series champs recognize his talent as a top 10 outfielder? Leaving aside the voting, which is irrelevant, JD Drew has made a single all-star team.


In the end, you get a pretty set of statistics, but ones that bear out what our eyes tell us. He does a lot of things very right, but rarely in a situation in which required. Or, to be more fair, he does a lot of things very right, and periodically in the situations in which required, but not up to the level I expect of a $14 million player. I'll admit it, to me the determining factor is salary. If he were paid $10 million, he'd be more palatable. But as the highest paid player on the team, I have greater expectations than a #7 hitter.

#46 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 01 October 2009 - 08:02 AM

QUOTE (Steve Dillard @ Oct 1 2009, 08:53 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
* RISP? .213 in 2009, .237 in 2007

399 OBP with RISP in 2009.
388 OBP with RISP in 2007
And I just love, LOVE the fact you left out 2008: .289/.457/.522 with RISP

The answer is pretty simple if you think about it for 1 second: with RISP he's not been getting good pitches to hit most of the time, so instead of swinging at crap and getting himself out he does the next best thing besides getting a hit: not making an out.

QUOTE
These number show that there's a reason why he's never driven in 100 RBIs. The situational RBI stat cited above, showing a 13% rate and him being "average" sounds about right. He'd rather take a walk than drive the runner in himself.


He's right square in the middle of major league players in terms of % of runners driven in this year. He's got a higher RBI percentage than "clutch" players like Pedroia, Vlad, Quentin, Magglio Ordonez, and Jeter. He's hitting ahead of such notables as Alex Gonzalez and Jason Varitek, so he's not being pitched to. He's had far fewer runners on base to drive in than a guy like Lowell, despite Lowell missing far more games.

If you're going to ignore context and opportunity in these discussions then none of us are going to get anywhere. RBIs have been widely derided as any type of decent statistic because they are almost entirely dependent on opportunity. It's a fun stat for sportswriters and their ilk because there's a "payoff" element to it that gets their nipples hard, but ignores all other factors like opportunity and skill sets.

QUOTE
Apart from stats, there is secondary evidence. Surely the baseball managers of the world series champs recognize his talent as a top 10 outfielder? Leaving aside the voting, which is irrelevant, JD Drew has made a single all-star team.


This is just painful. All Star Games are a popularity contest for the most part. Saying he's no good because he's made only one all star team is the flip side of saying Scott Cooper was good because he made 2. It's completely irrelevant to the conversation. I suppose one could rebut your 1 All Star game argument by noting he was the MVP in that one game, but it's pointless. It's simply not germane to the point.

#47 Steve Dillard


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Posted 01 October 2009 - 08:19 AM

QUOTE (Smiling Joe Hesketh @ Oct 1 2009, 09:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
399 OBP with RISP in 2009.
388 OBP with RISP in 2007
And I just love, LOVE the fact you left out 2008: .289/.457/.522 with RISP

The answer is pretty simple if you think about it for 1 second: with RISP he's not been getting good pitches to hit most of the time, so instead of swinging at crap and getting himself out he does the next best thing besides getting a hit: not making an out.


And I LOVE the fact that you have ignored my entire post about how hits not OBP are critical with runners on base.


QUOTE
He's right square in the middle of major league player in terms of % of runners driven in this year. He's got a higher RBI percentage than "clutch" players like Pedroia, Vlad, and Jeter.


So, he's major league average in driving in runs? I think that's my point, not yours.

QUOTE
If you're going to ignore context and opportunity in these discussions then none of us are going to get anywhere. RBIs have been widely derided as any type of decent statistic because they are almost entirely dependent on opportunity.


If you're going to ignore my post, then we're not going anywhere. I have not relied upon RBIs. I've spoken about RBI opportunities, and broken it down to why he doesn't end up with RBIs. You seem to agree with the results of that analysis -- that in RBI opportunities he walks rather than hits. I said that very issue "encapsulates" the disagreement.

That leaves us with a result supported by stats -- he walks rather than drives runs in (other than at a MLB average rate). You excuse that result by referencing them pitching around Drew. But the same could be said about any "exceptional" player, who will always have a worse player behind them. And I ask, why is he batting 7th with Varitek and Green/Gonzalez behind him? Because, as I demonstrated in my post, he failed in his other positions in the lineup. Is his batting in front of Varitek/Gonzalez the cause, or the effect, of his failures as an RBI guy?

I expect more for $14, you apparently don't.

QUOTE
This is just painful. All Star Games are a popularity contest for the most part. Saying he's no good because he's made only one all star team is the flip side of saying Scott Cooper was good because he made 2. It's completely irrelevant to the conversation.


I said it's secondary evidence. I'm not relying upon popular vote, but relying upon what managers have added him. As I acknowledged, it may not be a huge factor, but it is not "irrelevant." It is supporting evidence.


#48 Dewy4PrezII


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Posted 01 October 2009 - 08:28 AM

QUOTE (Steve Dillard @ Oct 1 2009, 09:19 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
And I LOVE the fact that you have ignored my entire post about how hits not OBP are critical with runners on base.
He did address it, he said that he SLUGGED .522 w/ RISP in 2008, but that didn't fit your argument so you ignored that fact and pretened that he only focused on the OBP.

QUOTE
I said it's secondary evidence. I'm not relying upon popular vote, but relying upon what managers have added him. As I acknowledged, it may not be a huge factor, but it is not "irrelevant." It is supporting evidence.


The top ten OF in the AL could not make they AS game even if it was strictly stats and performance based, so how exactly does this support your assertation that JD is not one of the top ten OF in the AL and thus not worth $14MM.



#49 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 01 October 2009 - 08:33 AM

QUOTE (Steve Dillard @ Oct 1 2009, 09:19 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
And I LOVE the fact that you have ignored my entire post about how hits not OBP are critical with runners on base.


That is curious reasoning, since you're essentially arguing that nothing a batter does with runners on base matters except drive in runs.

QUOTE
So, he's major league average in driving in runs? I think that's my point, not yours.

He is, which is a point in his favor since throughout this thread you have hammered on his supposed inability to drive in runs. If he's right around the major league average for driving in runs, then your argument is wrong: he's not bad at the job. He's average at it, and in fact far better than many other fan favorites like Pedroia. Combine that with his on base skills and defense and you've got a very good player.

QUOTE
If you're going to ignore my post, then we're not going anywhere. I have not relied upon RBIs. I've spoken about RBI opportunities, and broken it down to why he doesn't end up with RBIs. You seem to agree with the results of that analysis -- that in RBI opportunities he walks rather than hits. I said that very issue "encapsulates" the disagreement.


As others have pointed out, he's gotten far fewer opportunities with runners on base than many other players on this team.

He walks a lot with runners on base because he will simply not swing at crap out of the strike zone. His OBP is high in that situation. If you want him to hack away up there at bad pitches just because there's a guy on second you're essentially asking him (or any other player) to hurt the team. The chances of making an out by swinging at crap are far higher than those of getting a hit when swinging at crap.

QUOTE
I said it's secondary evidence. I'm not relying upon popular vote, but relying upon what managers have added him. As I acknowledged, it may not be a huge factor, but it is not "irrelevant." It is supporting evidence.


It's no such thing. It's a popularity contest, period. Citing All Star games made as some sort of evidence that a player is not good is ridiculous given the current method of election to the squads and the restrictions placed on the format of the squads. It's a flawed election system to an exhibition game driven by popularity and your citation of it does nothing for the argument you're trying to make.

#50 yecul


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Posted 01 October 2009 - 08:33 AM

QUOTE (Steve Dillard @ Oct 1 2009, 09:19 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
And I LOVE the fact that you have ignored my entire post about how hits not OBP are critical with runners on base.


To be fair, it should be ignored. You could make lots of posts about lots of wrong things and they will also be ignored. I say could, but I really should say do.

I, for one, am looking forward to ignoring your argument about how Kathy Bates is the hottest living Hollywood starlet, but I digress...

Let's put it another way. You are correct that he does not swing away and drive in more runs, but the value of that correctness is very little. It's like saying Ellsbury isn't valuable because he doesn't hit a lot of homers. That is a correct point but the wrong conclusion. Ellsbury provides value by playing good defense, hitting a bit, and being super fast. Drew is valuable for not making outs along with some other offensive pluses (bit of power, etc), playing good D, and being a solid baserunner.

So, ultimately, you are correct about nothing important. You are correct that he doesn't drive in runs but that means nothing. Baseball is a game with many facets. Any player that is good at one single aspect alone is not going to be useful. As you said, he is average at driving in runs... and ABOVE average at other things.

At one point or another we hit a wall because there is no real value in explaining the way things work to someone who simply cannot comprehend it. Either you are capable (or willing to) of understanding big people talk or you're not. It's ok if you are not. We will just move on. And I imagine we will be doing so very soon. At the end of the day you simply don't like Drew. Oh well.

Yes, I too fell for the low hanging fruit. Shame on me.