27 replies to this topic

[Laser Show]

I know we just said this last week, but this is no doubt the most important series of the year thus far. We need to distance ourselves from the Rangers this weekend. Tonight, Lester for the Sox and Millwood for the Rangers. I would love to see Kotchman at first and Martinez DH, but I don't think that will happen.

[InsideTheParker]

Lowell, Drew, Martinez and Varitek have hit Millwood very well this year. Even Ortiz has 2 RBI against him. Youkilis has done nothing against him this year, which may have figured in the decision to take his penalty now. Since both Martinez, Kotchman and Varitek have hit him well over the years, Francona has some deciding to do. I guess I would play Lowell at third, DH Martinez, Kotchman at first, with Tek catching. If Ortiz plays, I guess Kotchman would be the man out.

I have never mastered the art of lining up stats, but the numbers can be found here:gameday

Edit to add "this year" re Youkilis.

Edited by InsideTheParker, 14 August 2009 - 11:46 AM.

[C4CRVT]

I know we just said this last week, but this is no doubt the most important series of the year thus far. We need to distance ourselves from the Rangers this weekend.

I don't always get the line of reasoning behind the "ok, THIS is the most important series so far this year." I think last weekend was more important, it's just that they completely failed. If they had won 3 of 4 last weekend, this series isn't nearly as importatnt. I get that Texas is our main competition now but if we had won 3-4 last weekend, we're 1/2 game back and 1 game back for the best record in baseball. The stakes don't seem as dire here. I don't see Texas pulling away even if they get the best of us this weekend.

Without Youks, I don't really have high expectations for this weekend. I do think they'll eventually pull out the WC and the starting pitching is going to lead the way. I hope that Tito puts the "right" lineups out there and the offense and defense is good enough.

[RingoOSU]

I don't always get the line of reasoning behind the "ok, THIS is the most important series so far this year." I think last weekend was more important, it's just that they completely failed. If they had won 3 of 4 last weekend, this series isn't nearly as importatnt.

I think every series is more important than the last one here on out. We have to keep pace or do better than the teams behind us. The detroit series raised our playoff chances 12% from a season low of 38%. I don't really see these numbers as end all be all (They come from baseball prospectus) but I think it's just a good perspective. We were more likely to miss the playoffs after NY swept us. However, during that same time period, Tampa has struggled. That 3-1 we put up against detroit has been huge.

I think it's mainly important that we win 1 game in Texas. Just one. 0-3 is 3 games in the standings while 1-2 is only one. If we leave Texas only 1/2 game behind them, then it really doesn't matter Texas beat us in the head to head if we make up a game on them elsewhere. Texas will not win out.

[Redkluzu]

Red Sox
1. Josh Reddick, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Victor Martinez, 1B
4. Jason Bay, LF
5. J.D. Drew, RF
6. Mike Lowell, 3B
7. David Ortiz, DH
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Nick Green, SS
-- Jon Lester, LHP

Rangers
1. Omar Vizquel, 2B
2. Michael Young, 3B
3. Marlon Byrd, CF
4. Andrew Jones, DH
5. Josh Hamilton, RF
6. Hank Blalock, 1B
7. David Murphy, LF
8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
9. Elvis Andrus, SS
-- Kevin Millwood, RHP




I haven't yet heard why Ellsbury's out tonight. I hope they're just resting him. Reddick is IMO the best choice without Ells to lead off. As others in here have called for Papi's drop in the lineup, seventh seems to put minimal pressure on him but I can't say I like Papi, Tek and Green in a row. What do you all think?

[InsideTheParker]

I can't say I like Papi, Tek and Green in a row. What do you all think?

Dear Ms Kluzu,
This is an analysis thread. I can't say what I think. I'm not sure I'm capable of thought on this subject.
Feeling? Sick.

Yours in pain,
ITP

[koufax32]

This game just has the feel of a tight, low scoring game. There's a great deal of potential in the 7-1 spots for Millwood to take an inning off. That's not a good combination given how he has fared against Boston the past several years. I have a feeling the first team to three runs wins.

Am I reading this right that TEX has L-L-L in the 5-7 spots? Lester needs to make short, quick and painless work of that.

[Adirondack jack]

This game just has the feel of a tight, low scoring game. There's a great deal of potential in the 7-1 spots for Millwood to take an inning off. That's not a good combination given how he has fared against Boston the past several years. I have a feeling the first team to three runs wins.

Am I reading this right that TEX has L-L-L in the 5-7 spots? Lester needs to make short, quick and painless work of that.

It is doubtful it had much to do with Washington's lineup construction, but Lester does have a slight reverse platoon. Both in his MLB career and in 2009.

Nelson Cruz has been dealing with a bum ankle. It looks like they just put him on the DL this afternoon. That right handed bat probably has more to do with the Lefty dominated middle of the lineup.

edit: I am deluded and mis-read something on b-ref. Lester does have a bit of a reverse platoon developing this year, however in his career RHH's have done slightly better when looking at OPS. Though LHH's have a higher SLG% when looking at 2009 or his career.

2009
vs. RHB .249 / .307 / .356
vs. LHB .248 / .305 / .423
Career
vs. RHP .265 / .337 / .383
vs. LHP .249 / .306 / .394

Back to your classical music.

Edited by Adirondack jack, 14 August 2009 - 06:11 PM.

[Nixon's Hat Stain]

After 1 round of Papi-Tek-Green, we have 0-2 with a walk, a strikeout, and Green lining into a doubleplay. That's wonderful. Granted, you can't blame Lowell for being caught off second.

I'm just guessing that Gonzalez might not improve that area too much, but it can't possibly be any worse.

[TheShynessClinic]

Is gameday off, or is Lester's velocity on the four-seamer down tonight?

[Laser Show]

The highest I've seen him clocked is 94, so that'd be a yes. A little worrying.

Edited by Laser Show, 14 August 2009 - 08:02 PM.

[BucketOBalls]

Is gameday off, or is Lester's velocity on the four-seamer down tonight?

Could it a "Lack of Fenway Gun" type thing?

I think his location seems to be a bigger problem than velocity.


Yup. All over the place. And in the middle of the zone. Seems to be improving as time goes on though.

Edited by BucketOBalls, 14 August 2009 - 08:08 PM.

[Laser Show]

Pitchfx has his 4-seamer at an average of 92.77 with a high of 94.5

[shepard50]

The highest I've seen him clocked is 94, so that'd be a yes. A little worrying.

Pitch FX has the last 4 seamer as the fastest pitch of the night at 95.3, with the velocity slowly coming up over the game.

Edited by shepard50, 14 August 2009 - 08:12 PM.

[Nixon's Hat Stain]

Frank Viola, NESN's colorman-of-the-day, may have actually made a correct point, which would explain Lester's lack of velocity and control: it seems like he's trying to aim his pitches rather than throwing naturally.

edit: Lester's motion just seems a bit jerkier than usual, more tentative...doesn't help that he's been working from the stretch almost exclusively.

Edited by Nixon's Hat Stain, 14 August 2009 - 08:29 PM.

[OCD SS]

Teagarden is on deck for Salty; what happened there?

Apparently he has a sore shoulder.

Edited by OCD SS, 14 August 2009 - 08:38 PM.

[mjswarner]

Teagarden is on deck for Salty; what happened there?

Numbness in his right hand. per radio

Edited by mjswarner, 14 August 2009 - 08:39 PM.

[Adirondack jack]

Teagarden is on deck for Salty; what happened there?

Frankie V said Salty had been throwing lolly-pops back to Millwood all-night. Apparently, his shoulder is barking(link). Unsure if it's the same shoulder he struggled with last year.

[oldetowneteam]

Teagarden is on deck for Salty; what happened there?

Apparently he has a sore shoulder.

The Rangers broadcasters just said that Salty left with numbness in his right hand. Earlier in the game, I noticed that Salty had trouble throwing back to Milwood. Milwood would have to jump for the throws back to the mound or move off of the mound to catch Salty's throws.

[mjswarner]

>75% of Millwood's starts have gone for >100 pitches this year. >60% more than 110. I assume that means he comes out for another.

[Jnai]

Frank Viola, NESN's colorman-of-the-day, may have actually made a correct point, which would explain Lester's lack of velocity and control: it seems like he's trying to aim his pitches rather than throwing naturally.

edit: Lester's motion just seems a bit jerkier than usual, more tentative...doesn't help that he's been working from the stretch almost exclusively.

Control, maybe, but velocity is due to the Texas ballpark. It is well known to be slow.

[Tudor Fever]

I'm enjoying Frank Viola. Pretty funny and knowledgable, plus he's a self-professed fantasy baseball geek.

Edit: In spite of his being enamoured with "small ball".

Edit 2: That was kind of a dumb comment, as the Buchholz gaffe would have never happened if Woodward had bunted successfully.

Edited by Tudor Fever, 14 August 2009 - 10:25 PM.

[Redkluzu]

Viola is saying it's absolutely crazy to have Bucky run for Tek but with Ells on first, and watching his running to the plate I have to say --total inexperience.

[BucketOBalls]

Please delete.

Edited by BucketOBalls, 14 August 2009 - 10:28 PM.

[Tudor Fever]

Buchholz can now channel Mike Torres: "I'm off the hook! I'm off the hook!"

[Redkluzu]

Buchholz can now channel Mike Torres: "I'm off the hook! I'm off the hook!"

Good one.

And as long as we get the win, we can look back and smile warmly, patting Buchholz on the head instead of wanting to bean him for causing us the loss. I still think it wasn't a great move on Tito's part.

Glad Lester won't get the loss with his 11 Ks

Edited by Redkluzu, 14 August 2009 - 10:38 PM.

[phragle]

One great at bat.

[Manzivino]

Tonight marked the ninth time this season that Francisco pitched in back-to-back games; he threw 21 pitches yesterday collecting a 4-1 save against Cleveland. He entered today's game getting hit at a .269/.367/.538 clip this year on 0 days rest, consistent with his career numbers of .295/.370/.509 on 0 days rest. After tonight's implosion that 2009 line now stands at .412/.474/.794. His ERA when pitching on consecutive days this season rose from 6.75 (career mark of 7.16) to 13.51.

Bottom line: Francisco really does not enjoy pitching consecutive games.

Edit: Clarity

Edited by Manzivino, 15 August 2009 - 03:10 AM.