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8/13 PENBIS ANALYSIS GAME THREAD: Sox vs. Tiggers


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#1 Fratboy


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 08:32 AM

A tough matchup today: Buchholz vs. Verlander. But if Buchholz has anything near what he did in his last start, the Sox are in the thick of this one. Looks to be a dreary afternoon at the Fens weather-wise, but should be a great game.

#2 Laser Show

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Posted 13 August 2009 - 09:54 AM

I'd like to see Martinez behind the plate today. I believe he caught Buchholz last time out, and though I wasn't able to watch the game, it sounded like they worked well together, and Buchholz's results seem to reflect that.

Edited by Laser Show, 13 August 2009 - 09:54 AM.


#3 absintheofmalaise


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 10:09 AM

QUOTE (Laser Show @ Aug 13 2009, 10:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'd like to see Martinez behind the plate today. I believe he caught Buchholz last time out, and though I wasn't able to watch the game, it sounded like they worked well together, and Buchholz's results seem to reflect that.

Martinez caught Buchholz his last two starts. His change was pretty effective in the last one.

#4 czar


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 11:23 AM

Once again, the Sox are putting an absolute joke of an IF behind a SP with the (by far) highest GB% (60%, Lester is 2nd at 47%) on the staff.

I understand the whole Youkilis suspended dynamic, but it's kind of frustrating that there's going to be a whole flood of posts questioning Buchholz's mental fortitude if a few extra hits get through the gaping holes in the infield.

Edited by czar, 13 August 2009 - 11:24 AM.


#5 luckysox


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 11:29 AM

QUOTE (czar @ Aug 13 2009, 12:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Once again, the Sox are putting an absolute joke of an IF behind a SP with the (by far) highest GB% (60%, Lester is 2nd at 47%) on the staff.

I understand the whole Youkilis suspended dynamic, but it's kind of frustrating that there's going to be a whole flood of posts questioning Buchholz's mental fortitude if a few extra hits get through the gaping holes in the infield.


Agreed. I feel as if they could have waited to rest Pedroia until after the Texas series (when Youk is back). I know then you have to deal with the nasty turf in Toronto, but at least you could have 50% competence in the infield with Youk and Kotchman at the corners. Lowell+Green+Woodward does not inspire confidence behind the pitcher who likely needs it the most on the team.

Edited by luckysox, 13 August 2009 - 11:29 AM.


#6 NickEsasky


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 12:33 PM

The Sox have had good success against verlander over the last few years (5.49 ERA). Hopefully we are able to get to him again today and Clay is able to keep things close.

With the Tigers spent pen it would be nice to drive up the pitch count and get him out early nevertheless.

VMart could be huge today as he has a .967 OPS against him in 39 career at bats, including 4 home runs.

#7 glennhoffmania


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 12:43 PM

QUOTE (NickEsasky @ Aug 13 2009, 01:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The Sox have had good success against verlander over the last few years (5.49 ERA). Hopefully we are able to get to him again today and Clay is able to keep things close.

With the Tigers spent pen it would be nice to drive up the pitch count and get him out early nevertheless.

VMart could be huge today as he has a .967 OPS against him in 39 career at bats, including 4 home runs.


Not picking on you, but why do people refer to the first stat (pitcher vs a team in a career)? It seems completely meaningless unless the team hasn't changed.

The second stat (Victor vs Verlander) is very relevant and far more important, in my irrelevant opinion.

#8 phragle


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 12:43 PM

It looked like he was trying to work faster. It's a good thing.

#9 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 12:50 PM

That curve in the dirt moved like a goddamn wiffleball. Holy crap.

#10 Trlicek's Whip

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Posted 13 August 2009 - 12:51 PM

Did Reddick deke Laird at 3rd?

#11 InsideTheParker


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 12:54 PM

Why does Ortiz never try to hit opposite field? Didn't he try that earlier in the year before he broke out and hit well for a bit?

#12 czar


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 12:56 PM

Verlander averaged 97.64 mph on his fastball in the 1st. That's almost 2.5 mph faster than his season average.

#13 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 12:58 PM

QUOTE (phragle @ Aug 13 2009, 01:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It looked like he was trying to work faster. It's a good thing.

It's a good sign, but his real pacing problems come with men on base. It certainly bears watching to see what happens once he has to work from the stretch.

#14 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 01:02 PM

QUOTE (CaptainLaddie @ Aug 13 2009, 01:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
That curve in the dirt moved like a goddamn wiffleball. Holy crap.

Strike two to Ordonez started at his elbows and ended up around his knees.

#15 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 01:02 PM

QUOTE (Smiling Joe Hesketh @ Aug 13 2009, 01:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It's a good sign, but his real pacing problems come with men on base. It certainly bears watching to see what happens once he has to work from the stretch.

Now we'll get our chance.

So far, Buchholz looks real strong - good movement on his pitches, quick to the plate, etc. I am actually enjoying watching him.

#16 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 01:02 PM

QUOTE (TheYellowDart5 @ Aug 13 2009, 02:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Strike two to Ordonez started at his elbows and ended up around his knees.

I was talking about Verlander, but Buch's curve has also been impressive.

#17 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 01:03 PM

QUOTE (CaptainLaddie @ Aug 13 2009, 02:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Now we'll get our chance.

So far, Buchholz looks real strong - good movement on his pitches, quick to the plate, etc. I am actually enjoying watching him.

Yup, he seems to be on today. But now there's a runner on base and he has to work from the stretch, which is where most of his problems with command seem to come from.

#18 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 01:04 PM

Laddie, your avatar reminds me of this shirt:



#19 Sprowl


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 01:05 PM

Buchholz is showing off the full package this afternoon: 2-seamer, changeup, curve, 4-seamer and slider. Everything for strikes, with plenty of pitches inside. The only concern so far for me is how many pitches he is putting in the center of the strike zone.

#20 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 01:15 PM

Balls 1 and 4 to Granderson looked awfully close to me.

That said, Buchholz has been having trouble finding the strike zone this inning.

#21 BucketOBalls


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 01:18 PM

QUOTE (TheYellowDart5 @ Aug 13 2009, 02:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Balls 1 and 4 to Granderson looked awfully close to me.


Same here. It seems like umpire has been taking more off the bottom of the strike zone this year than before, that could be just me.

It would nice to see him Buchele down here.

#22 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 02:08 PM

QUOTE (Smiling Joe Hesketh @ Aug 13 2009, 02:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Laddie, your avatar reminds me of this shirt:


This is not a pipe.

#23 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 02:09 PM

Buchholz has looked tremendous today. Is it possible he has turned a corner?

#24 phragle


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 02:14 PM

Has anyone noticed if Buch always pitches from the right side of the rubber, even to lefties?

#25 Fratboy


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 02:15 PM

QUOTE (CaptainLaddie @ Aug 13 2009, 03:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Buchholz has looked tremendous today. Is it possible he has turned a corner?

I'd certainly like to think so. As BP did back in 2007 for Pedroia:

As of this very moment, with a 4.31 ERA, Clay Buchholz is now an above-average American League pitcher.

For the Red Sox to have any hope of winning the division, or making the playoffs for that matter, they need Clay Buchholz to keep doing what he's doing. For Buchholz to go out there and shut down the Yankees and Tigers in back-to-back starts is simply outstanding. This is what we've been waiting for since September 2007.

Now the offense needs to hold up their end of the bargain.

#26 czar


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 02:18 PM

QUOTE (phragle @ Aug 13 2009, 02:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Has anyone noticed if Buch always pitches from the right side of the rubber, even to lefties?


While pitching from both sides of the rubber is somewhat commonplace at lower levels (think high school ball) there are very few pitchers in the big leagues that pitch from both sides of the rubber; this was discussed ad nauseum when Brad Penny did it a couple months ago; pitchF/X release points confirm this.

Speaking of PFX, Buchholz is getting squeezed down low. He's lost at least 2, maybe 3 K's at the knees.

#27 phragle


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Posted 13 August 2009 - 02:33 PM

QUOTE (czar @ Aug 13 2009, 03:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
While pitching from both sides of the rubber is somewhat commonplace at lower levels (think high school ball) there are very few pitchers in the big leagues that pitch from both sides of the rubber; this was discussed ad nauseum when Brad Penny did it a couple months ago; pitchF/X release points confirm this.

Speaking of PFX, Buchholz is getting squeezed down low. He's lost at least 2, maybe 3 K's at the knees.

Its something I never really payed attention to, interesting though.

The bottom of the zone tends to be tighter, especially with breaking balls.

If you watch Verlander's arm you can tell when the curve is coming.

The homer off Buch.

Edit: Buch has been steadily losing velocity since the beginning of the 6th

Edit 2: Book closed on Buchholz: 7IP 5H 1ER 3BB 3K

Edited by phragle, 13 August 2009 - 02:50 PM.


#28 sibpin

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Posted 13 August 2009 - 03:12 PM

Green and Woodward due up fourth and fifth in the ninth. If it gets there, which one do you hit for? Who hits for them? If you hit for both, who plays short? If Lowell gets on as the tying run, do you run for him?

I think the only move here is to hit Pedroia for Woodward, and (if it gets there) Drew for Reddick.