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8/11 PENBIS ANALYSIS GAME THREAD: Sox vs. Tiggers


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#101 Trlicek's Whip

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:07 PM

QUOTE (rembrat @ Aug 11 2009, 09:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
At this point you give him another inning right? Or at least go batter to batter. That was like 5 pitches.
If there was ever a Sox pitcher in a game situation for Tito to "steal outs," you have to think that Tazawa in this particular contest qualifies. [The only caveat as Pedroia walks is if this turns into a huge and long inning].

Edit: keyboard muscle memory; Mills is the acting manager!

Edited by Trlicek's Whip, 11 August 2009 - 08:09 PM.


#102 cshea


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:07 PM

Does Mills try to steal outs with Junichi Tazawa in the 6th, or straight to Cabrera?

#103 Sprowl


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:08 PM

QUOTE (rembrat @ Aug 11 2009, 06:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
At this point you give him another inning right? Or at least go batter to batter. That was like 5 pitches.

The win-opportunity is there. Time to go for the quality start.

Pitches per inning so far: 35, 17, 15, 8, 5. At this rate by the time he completes the 9th inning, he will have thrown fewer pitches than he has through 5.

#104 InsideTheParker


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:08 PM

Orsillo and Eck are becoming BFFs! This is funny.

Oops, forgot I was in the serious thread. My mistake.

Edited by InsideTheParker, 11 August 2009 - 08:09 PM.


#105 Blacken


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:09 PM

QUOTE (Laser Show @ Aug 11 2009, 09:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Very impressed by Tazawa. Much stronger than he looked in the first, and makes me all the more pissed at a certain shortstop for giving Tazawa 20 more pitches.
You call him a shortstop?


I think you have to run him right back out there for the sixth. The ease he's showing with dealing with these guys is fun to watch; of course, now that I've said that, he's going to give up six runs.

#106 koufax32


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:10 PM

QUOTE (Sprowl @ Aug 11 2009, 09:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The win-opportunity is there. Time to go for the quality start.

Pitches per inning so far: 35, 17, 15, 8, 5. At this rate by the time he completes the 9th inning, he will have thrown fewer pitches than he has through 5.


Except this doesn't jive with the pregame talk from Tito. Of course, that may have been his way of tempering expectations. We shall see.

#107 OCD SS


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:10 PM

QUOTE (Sprowl @ Aug 11 2009, 09:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The win-opportunity is there. Time to go for the quality start.

Pitches per inning so far: 35, 17, 15, 8, 5. At this rate by the time he completes the 9th inning, he will have thrown fewer pitches than he has through 5.


From the POV of looking at his pitchcount per inning, consider is the double play was turned in the 1st.

#108 Average Reds


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:10 PM

QUOTE (koufax32 @ Aug 11 2009, 08:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I don't know of any precedent for this so bear with me. If Gallaraga can't pitch tomorrow is it out of the realm of possibility for Porcello to pitch? What do starters normally do the day before a start?



That's a pretty interesting thought.

Pitchers do throw a lot the day of a start - long-tossing in the outfield, followed by an extended warm up and then the game. The key here is that Porcello only threw 15 pitches during the game, so he may - stress may - be able to go out there and give the Tigers 4-5 innings in a pinch.

I don't think they will do this for any number of reasons, but if this were a late September game in a tight race, the Tigers might very well have him pitch.

#109 Redkluzu


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:11 PM

QUOTE (Sprowl @ Aug 11 2009, 09:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The win-opportunity is there. Time to go for the quality start.

Pitches per inning so far: 35, 17, 15, 8, 5. At this rate by the time he completes the 9th inning, he will have thrown fewer pitches than he has through 5.


Sprowl, I saw that pitch count too but on Gameday, he's got 98 pitches. It doesn't add up. Does Pitchfx have some sort of delay?

WOW, analysis aside. Lowell hot tonight.

#110 rembrat


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:12 PM

Don't look now but Lowell is making a strong case for the DH position.

#111 Average Reds


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:13 PM

As an aside, I was on vacation until yesterday and just found out about the dual game thread policy.

To whoever is responsible for this, thank you. I may never post in a regular game thread again.

[/hijack]

#112 koufax32


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:14 PM

QUOTE (Average Reds @ Aug 11 2009, 09:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
That's a pretty interesting thought.

Pitchers do throw a lot the day of a start - long-tossing in the outfield, followed by an extended warm up and then the game. The key here is that Porcello only threw 15 pitches during the game, so he may - stress may - be able to go out there and give the Tigers 4-5 innings in a pinch.

I don't think they will do this for any number of reasons, but if this were a late September game in a tight race, the Tigers might very well have him pitch.


As my question hung there for a while I thought this as well. I think the need for a good starter for tomorrow is not (or at least should not be) as important as the long term health of a 22 year old starter.

Mike Lowell pinch runs, hits two homers, and Pedroia walks twice...all in the same game before the end of the fifth. Yes, this game will end up in Jayson Stark's column.

#113 OCD SS


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:16 PM

QUOTE (rembrat @ Aug 11 2009, 09:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Don't look now but Lowell is making a strong case for the DH position.


So, as someone who has looked forward to running Mike Lowell out of town since he was traded here, I'm wondering if there hasn't been some sort of conditioning issue that DHing might alleviate (and allow his traditional "1st half bat" to carry through the year).

#114 Laser Show

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:16 PM

QUOTE (Blacken @ Aug 11 2009, 09:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
You call him a shortstop?


I'm using the term very loosely.

Also: Lowell really needs to be the permanent DH for the time being. He is white-hot since the break: .352/.422/.500, plus 2 homers in 2 ABs tonight, off of RHPs no less.

Color me not happy Taz is out.



#115 Blacken


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:16 PM

Anybody have any data of interest on Fernando Cabrera?

EDIT:
QUOTE (Laser Show @ Aug 11 2009, 09:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Color me not happy Taz is out.
Agreed. He was dealing; this is the one guy I would be happy with them stealing outs with.

Edited by Blacken, 11 August 2009 - 08:17 PM.


#116 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:18 PM

Tazawa's start tonight, 5 IP, 1 ER, 6K. Very much like his usual run of minor league starts. To say I am impressed with his composure would be a massive understatement. Many other rookie pitchers with scant professional experience would have imploded after Green;s sad impersonation of a major league shortstop in the first inning; Tazawa battled through it, settled down, and gave his team 5 innings. Clay Buchholz should take note.

#117 Kevin Youkulele


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:20 PM

In a rain shortened game does a reliever get a save if it was a save situation (other than not being the 9th inning) for protecting the lead until the tarp comes on?

#118 The Four Peters


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:21 PM

Poor Inge has been completely abused the last 2 ABs by sliders/curves on the outside corner. This being the first time I've seen him pitch, I'm very impressed with the bite on Cabrera's slider there.

#119 Shoeless Joe Wood

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:21 PM

QUOTE (koufax32 @ Aug 11 2009, 09:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
As my question hung there for a while I thought this as well. I think the need for a good starter for tomorrow is not (or at least should not be) as important as the long term health of a 22 year old starter.

Mike Lowell pinch runs, hits two homers, and Pedroia walks twice...all in the same game before the end of the fifth. Yes, this game will end up in Jayson Stark's column.


Just to throw this out there, Lambert was expected to pitch tomorrow but will now be unavailable, and their AAA team has a double header tonight, which may make things a little more difficult.

Of course this is all moot if Galarraga is able to pitch tomorrow.

#120 The Four Peters


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:22 PM

QUOTE (Kevin Youkulele @ Aug 11 2009, 09:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
In a rain shortened game does a reliever get a save if it was a save situation (other than not being the 9th inning) for protecting the lead until the tarp comes on?

According to mlb.com, yes.

QUOTE
Saves:
Rule 10.20 in the Official Rule Book states:
Credit a pitcher with a save when he meets all three of the following conditions:
(1) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and
(2) He is not the winning pitcher; and
(3) He qualifies under one of the following conditions:
- (a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or
- (b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batsmen he faces; or
- © He pitches effectively for at least three innings. No more than one save may be credited in each game.


#121 Trlicek's Whip

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:24 PM

QUOTE (Blacken @ Aug 11 2009, 09:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Anybody have any data of interest on Fernando Cabrera?
He's been positively filthy for Pawtucket this year. Has always had the missing bats ability but his control / BB% has always been the bugaboo. In 2005 as a 23 y.o. callup for CLE he was the quintessential lightning in a bottle pitching pre-starter Jo. Santana middle innings from July-Sept. He's 28 now, so definitely could have put it together since the base skills were there. Not sure what the Sox have done differently with him regarding repertoire or mechanics if anything.

Edited by Trlicek's Whip, 11 August 2009 - 08:25 PM.


#122 Jnai


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:25 PM

After this one game, we now have more useful PitchFX data on the Red Sox farm system than we got through The Futures at Fenway game.

#123 Sprowl


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:25 PM

QUOTE (Redkluzu @ Aug 11 2009, 06:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Sprowl, I saw that pitch count too but on Gameday, he's got 98 pitches. It doesn't add up. Does Pitchfx have some sort of delay?

I'm not sure -- maybe some pitches were omitted from pitchfx? They discarded some of the bad-data Penny pitches from last night.

QUOTE (Blacken @ Aug 11 2009, 06:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Anybody have any data of interest on Fernando Cabrera?

EDIT:
Agreed. He was dealing; this is the one guy I would be happy with them stealing outs with.


pitchfx charts
He throws strikes: 11 of 14. They're right in the middle of the zone, so his movement needs to be good. Fastball 92, hard-breaking slider 80-82.

edit: more on the slider -- lots of movement, high RPM and lots of downward break for a slider. A slurve is probably be a better description.

Edited by Sprowl, 11 August 2009 - 08:28 PM.


#124 Blacken


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:25 PM

QUOTE (Jnai @ Aug 11 2009, 09:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
After this one game, we now have more useful PitchFX data on the Red Sox farm system than we got through The Futures at Fenway game.
Of course. They're all up here. emot-buddy.gif

#125 Laser Show

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:26 PM

Raining now...

Bay's looked like he's turned it around the past few games. Seems to be hitting the ball hard almost every at-bat.



#126 Jnai


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:26 PM

QUOTE (Sprowl @ Aug 11 2009, 08:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
He throws strikes: 11 of 14. They're right in the middle of the zone, so his movement needs to be good. Fastball 92, hard-breaking slider 80-82.


Man, is that a straight fastball or what?

#127 Sprowl


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:30 PM

QUOTE (Jnai @ Aug 11 2009, 06:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Man, is that a straight fastball or what?

It is -- absolutely 0 horizontal movement on it, and not much rise for an overhand 4-seamer. His slurve will need to be good.

#128 The Four Peters


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:32 PM

QUOTE (Laser Show @ Aug 11 2009, 09:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Raining now...

Bay's looked like he's turned it around the past few games. Seems to be hitting the ball hard almost every at-bat.

I was only half listening (but my ocular nerve was at full attention) to Heidi earlier in the game, but she mentioned that he has realized he his balance was off in his stance, and has since corrected it. He now feels much more comfortable at the plate, and I'd say the results bear that out.

#129 Jnai


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:35 PM

QUOTE (Sprowl @ Aug 11 2009, 08:30 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It is -- absolutely 0 horizontal movement on it, and not much rise for an overhand 4-seamer. His slurve will need to be good.


Soxprospects:

QUOTE
Scouting Report: Awesome 92-95 mph fastball with excellent movement. Also throws a very good splitter and an occasional slider. Not much there in terms of other secondary stuff. Very aggressive in the zone, leading to a lot of strikeouts, but also a lot of hits allowed. Missed most of 2008 season after undergoing elbow surgery in 2008. Came back to impress in the Puerto Rican Winter League in the 2008-09 off-season. Still has very high major league potential.


Who the hell wrote this?

#130 Trlicek's Whip

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:39 PM

QUOTE (Sprowl @ Aug 11 2009, 09:30 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
His slurve will need to be good.
Was this the 80 MPH "change" that the radio b'cast called last inning?

Cabrera was one of the top 10 rated prospects in the CLE organization in 2004 -- his 2005 season seemed to reinforce he had arrived. Back then (at least) he was throwing mid 90's fastballs with a splitter. When he derailed he was the unfortunate "Three True Outcomes" pitcher = walk, K, or HR.

#131 DukeSox


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:50 PM

QUOTE (Jnai @ Aug 11 2009, 09:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Soxprospects:



Who the hell wrote this?


Same guy that wrote this:

QUOTE
His 97-mile-per-hour (156 km/h) fastball attracted Major League Baseball scouts


http://en.wikipedia..../Junichi_Tazawa

#132 Sprowl


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:54 PM

QUOTE (Trlicek's Whip @ Aug 11 2009, 06:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Was this the 80 MPH "change" that the radio b'cast called last inning?

Cabrera was one of the top 10 rated prospects in the CLE organization in 2004 -- his 2005 season seemed to reinforce he had arrived. Back then (at least) he was throwing mid 90's fastballs with a splitter. When he derailed he was the unfortunate "Three True Outcomes" pitcher = walk, K, or HR.

I don't see any changeup in the charts -- if he throws a splitter, he wasn't using it this inning. His release point is quite variable: he is probably in danger of giving away his pitches. The chart's even worse than it looks: the rightmost slider is a misclassified fastball.


edit: "Three True Outcomes" pitcher = walk, K, or HR -- has BABIP immunity. smile.gif

Edited by Sprowl, 11 August 2009 - 08:55 PM.


#133 Jnai


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:54 PM

To be fair, Phragle pointed out earlier that the Fenway cameras were screwy, so we might be seeing that rather than real stuff from Cabrera.

#134 Sprowl


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 09:08 PM

QUOTE (Jnai @ Aug 11 2009, 06:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
To be fair, Phragle pointed out earlier that the Fenway cameras were screwy, so we might be seeing that rather than real stuff from Cabrera.

Phragle was seeing excessive vertical drop (and reduced vertical rise). With Cabrera, the issue looks like horizontal break readings biased upwards (that is, to the right on the chart).

#135 Laser Show

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 10:14 PM

Glad to see Millsy working Bard back in gradually.

#136 E5 Yaz


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 10:17 PM

QUOTE (Laser Show @ Aug 12 2009, 03:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Glad to see Millsy working Bard back in gradually.


I think it's a safe bet that "Millsy" isfollowing through with a plan of action coordinated with Francona during the rain delay

#137 Laser Show

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 10:25 PM

QUOTE (E5 Yaz @ Aug 11 2009, 11:17 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think it's a safe bet that "Millsy" isfollowing through with a plan of action coordinated with Francona during the rain delay


Yea, agreed, I was just said Millsy cuz he's the one making the moves right now.

#138 KiltedFool


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Posted 12 August 2009 - 12:55 PM

I just put up a few more old links in the main board thread about Cabrera. He used to tinker with a circle change in the 81 mph range but I would be surprised if he still throws it. Castrovince (MLB.com beat writer) noted in Sept 2006 that his falling off to the left in his delivery was screwing up his release point.

Probably hasn't changed much, when he can get ahead his breaking ball is incredibly filthy. But he's prone to being forced to throw a fastball for a strike or walk a batter, and those can get crushed. He was always seen as a back of the pen guy or potential closer. He supposedly has a closer mentality but I don't recall seeing it in action.