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8/11 PENBIS ANALYSIS GAME THREAD: Sox vs. Tiggers


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#1 Fratboy


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 05:35 AM

..

#2 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:51 AM

Tazawa has been remarkably consistent since starting his professional career in North America this season. He has 9 starts this season that have lasted between 5 and 6 innings where he's yielded 1 ER, 5 more where he went between 5 and 6 innings and yielded 0 earned runs, and one start of 7 IP and 2 ER. He's had only 2 poor starts all season (5.2 IP 6ER, and 4.1 IP 5 ER).

He doesn't walk many batters at all (2.38 BB rate in AA, 3.38 K/BB ratio in AA this season).

#3 RedOctober3829


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 03:11 PM

Here's how I would construct the lineup tonight:

1. Ellsbury 8
2. Pedroia 4
3. Martinez 3
4. Youkilis 5
5. Drew 9
6. Bay 7
7. Ortiz DH
8. Varitek 2
9. Green 6

Ortiz: .707 OPS vs. righties
Drew: .853 OPS vs. righties

I'd even fight for Lowell being in the lineup as the DH. Lowell has a .773 OPS vs. righties.

#4 Redkluzu


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 03:18 PM

QUOTE (RedOctober3829 @ Aug 11 2009, 04:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Here's how I would construct the lineup tonight:

1. Ellsbury 8
2. Pedroia 4
3. Martinez 3
4. Youkilis 5
5. Drew 9
6. Bay 7
7. Ortiz DH
8. Varitek 2
9. Green 6

Ortiz: .707 OPS vs. righties
Drew: .853 OPS vs. righties

I'd even fight for Lowell being in the lineup as the DH. Lowell has a .773 OPS vs. righties.


And you're batting 100% in the who's in department. From the Globe:

Red Sox
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Victor Martinez, 1B
4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B
5. David Ortiz, DH
6. Jason Bay, LF
7. J.D. Drew, RF
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Nick Green, SS
-- Junichi Tazawa, RHP

Edited by Redkluzu, 11 August 2009 - 03:22 PM.


#5 budcrew08

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 05:52 PM

QUOTE (Redkluzu @ Aug 11 2009, 04:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
And you're batting 100% in the who's in department. From the Globe:

Red Sox
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Victor Martinez, 1B
4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B
5. David Ortiz, DH
6. Jason Bay, LF
7. J.D. Drew, RF
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Nick Green, SS
-- Junichi Tazawa, RHP


i'm with RedOctober: I would switch Ortiz and Drew, personally. That's not a horrible lineup. Something I know I can look up quick, but did the Sox face Porcello last time? Or could this be a case of another young pitcher making the Sox look ridiculous?

#6 RingoOSU


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:10 PM

I can't find a link, and I would post this in the series thread on main, but for some reason behindthepen didn't start one...
Anyway, I heard on XM 175 Armando Gallaraga had to go back to the hotel in Boston, and is now questionable for his start tomorrow due to illness.

#7 phragle


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:11 PM

Jnai, got anything on this ump?

#8 BucketOBalls


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:14 PM

QUOTE (budcrew08 @ Aug 11 2009, 06:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
i'm with RedOctober: I would switch Ortiz and Drew, personally. That's not a horrible lineup. Something I know I can look up quick, but did the Sox face Porcello last time? Or could this be a case of another young pitcher making the Sox look ridiculous?

Here 3 runs in 4.1 innings last time. Incidentally, he was facing Dice-K last time, so this should seem familiar.

Porcello has a 1.98 ERA is last two starts, but they were against Baltimore and Cleveland. His ERA is in the double digits vs any team he has two starts against.


Here's hoping the Sox can get to him again, as I think they might need it.

#9 Shoeless Joe Wood

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:15 PM

QUOTE (budcrew08 @ Aug 11 2009, 06:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
i'm with RedOctober: I would switch Ortiz and Drew, personally. That's not a horrible lineup. Something I know I can look up quick, but did the Sox face Porcello last time? Or could this be a case of another young pitcher making the Sox look ridiculous?


They did face him in the last series, Porcello went 4.1 IP, with 8 hits, 3 ER, 1 BB, and 2 K's

#10 rembrat


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:18 PM

In AA he got GB at a 43.7% clip. Hopefully he pulls it out now.

#11 rembrat


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:20 PM

Nick Green is a horrible SS. Horrible.

#12 Laser Show

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:22 PM

Is it just me or does Green look VERY slow turning the double play?

#13 Redkluzu


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:24 PM

QUOTE (Laser Show @ Aug 11 2009, 07:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Is it just me or does Green look VERY slow turning the double play?



Eck said the play "took a long time to develop," --essentially what you're saying. But I thought Pedey's throw was a titch off too, no?

#14 Rudy's Curve

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:24 PM

QUOTE (rembrat @ Aug 11 2009, 07:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Nick Green is a horrible SS. Horrible.


He seems like what the Sox envisioned Lugo being defensively: plus range making up for mediocre instincts and off-target throws. UZR believes that to be the case (defense SSS obviously), and it seems like his range has improved as he's gotten more time.

#15 mjswarner

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:25 PM

Red Sox SS have more errors (23), the lowest fielding % (.955), and the third lowest DP turned (62) compared with AL counterparts.

#16 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:26 PM

I'd love to see someone do a study on how effective Varitek's called high strikes are. To the naked eye, it really seems like 90 percent of the time, they have no effect other than wasting a pitch or, as Tazawa just proved, backfiring miserably.

#17 Laser Show

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:30 PM

QUOTE (Redkluzu @ Aug 11 2009, 07:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Eck said the play "took a long time to develop," --essentially what you're saying. But I thought Pedey's throw was a titch off too, no?


Yea, but he would've had more time to get off a better throw with a quicker turn.

#18 phragle


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:30 PM

I feel like the sox cameras are a little off. If they are not Tazawa has more movement on his curve than just about anyone in the bigs.
10 inches of vertical movement, and 7 horizontal.
His fastball isn't very fast.

#19 The Four Peters


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:30 PM

QUOTE (Redkluzu @ Aug 11 2009, 07:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Eck said the play "took a long time to develop," --essentially what you're saying. But I thought Pedey's throw was a titch off too, no?

Well, it looked like his error on the previous DP had Green completely unwilling to go down to a knee and make the sidearm throw, which would have been the correct play. Instead, he tried the running flip, which takes longer to get off AND travels slower. As a result, the ball didn't get to Pedroia until the runner was pretty much on top of him. The hitch in the throw you saw was a result of him having to basically throw with all arm off his back foot, and he got nothing on it.

One of the best lessons I ever got about playing infield is that the ball is the fastest thing on the diamond. Get your throw off quickly and with authority, and it will do the job for you. Don't get cute by throwing off balance or trying crazy flips.

#20 Shoeless Joe Wood

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:31 PM

35 pitches for Tazawa that inning, 21 strikes and 14 balls. Does any one know if he's on a pitch count tonight?

Edited by Shoeless Joe Wood, 11 August 2009 - 06:31 PM.


#21 taxmancometh

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:31 PM

QUOTE (Redkluzu @ Aug 11 2009, 07:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Eck said the play "took a long time to develop," --essentially what you're saying. But I thought Pedey's throw was a titch off too, no?

In Pedroia's defense, the runner was on him and well off the base path (how often is that called?) when he attempted that jump-throw.

#22 Rudy's Curve

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:33 PM

Pedroia's range has been outstanding this year. That's two runs with any prior 2B since Pokey.

#23 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:34 PM

QUOTE (taxmancometh @ Aug 11 2009, 07:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
In Pedroia's defense, the runner was on him and well off the base path (how often is that called?) when he attempted that jump-throw.

That's Green's fault. He allowed the ball to take a third bounce, essentially passively playing the ball, and made a slow underhand flip to Pedroia instead of a sharp throw.

It's amazing how bad of a SS Nick Green is. You've got a rookie pitcher on the mound in some trouble, and a gift-wrapped chance to get the kid out of the inning without any runs scoring, and Nick Green couldn't make the most routine of plays. No example could better serve to show that baseball is definitely a team game.

#24 BucketOBalls


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:34 PM

QUOTE (phragle @ Aug 11 2009, 07:30 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I feel like the sox cameras are a little off. If they are not Tazawa has more movement on his curve than just about anyone in the bigs.
10 inches of vertical movement, and 7 horizontal.
His fastball isn't very fast.


To me, it looks similar to Dice-K's. Huge drop, but it's big and slow rather than a sharp hook.

Edited by BucketOBalls, 11 August 2009 - 06:35 PM.


#25 The Four Peters


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:39 PM

QUOTE (Smiling Joe Hesketh @ Aug 11 2009, 07:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
That's Green's fault. He allowed the ball to take a third bounce, essentially passively playing the ball, and made a slow underhand flip to Pedroia instead of a sharp throw.

It's amazing how bad of a SS Nick Green is. You've got a rookie pitcher on the mound in some trouble, and a gift-wrapped chance to get the kid out of the inning without any runs scoring, and Nick Green couldn't make the most routine of plays. No example could better serve to show that baseball is definitely a team game.

To me, the runs aren't even the biggest cost there, although they don't help. It's the wasted pitches. Tazawa threw 19 pitches after the first error, and 15 after the second. That's pretty much one full inning on the mound that Green cost Tazawa, and one extra inning that the bullpen will have to throw.

That's what really pisses me off about the errors, even more than the runs allowed.

Edit: Through/throw, same thing, right?

Edited by The Four Peters, 11 August 2009 - 06:43 PM.


#26 mabrowndog


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:40 PM

What, they couldn't get Terry Cashman to write a "This is for Timmmmmmy Re-tard..." tribute song?

Edited by mabrowndog, 12 August 2009 - 01:22 PM.


#27 Laser Show

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:42 PM

QUOTE (The Four Peters @ Aug 11 2009, 07:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
To me, the runs aren't even the biggest cost there, although they don't help. It's the wasted pitches. Tazawa threw 19 pitches after the first error, and 15 after the second. That's pretty much one full inning on the mound that Green cost Tazawa, and one extra inning that the bullpen will have to through.

That's what really pisses me off about the errors, even more than the runs allowed.


Agreed. The runs you can get back, the pitches you can't.

#28 rembrat


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:43 PM

Yea but the runs matter a whole lot. It feels like they have allowed a ton of extra runs to score because of defensive lapses and mental errors. Sometimes, when I daydream, I daydream of how awesome this pitching staff and team would be without the worst defense in the Majors.

#29 mabrowndog


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:45 PM

QUOTE (Smiling Joe Hesketh @ Aug 11 2009, 07:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
No example could better serve to show that baseball is definitely a team game.

Or that defense at SS is critical to game outcomes.

#30 phragle


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:45 PM

Taz's release point on the curve is higher than the fastballs, it's somewhat normal, but something to watch.

Porcello has Josh Beckett like stuff that 2-seamer is downright filthy. Good 4-seamer and change too. He'll have a bright future, thanks Julio.


#31 budcrew08

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:48 PM

QUOTE (Shoeless Joe Wood @ Aug 11 2009, 07:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
They did face him in the last series, Porcello went 4.1 IP, with 8 hits, 3 ER, 1 BB, and 2 K's



Gracias.

#32 rembrat


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:49 PM

Cabrera is having some awkward ass swings. Think his wrist is hurting?

#33 Laser Show

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:52 PM

QUOTE (rembrat @ Aug 11 2009, 07:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Cabrera is having some awkward ass swings. Think his wrist is hurting?


That'd be a yes. BIG blow to the Tigers if it's bad.

#34 mabrowndog


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:53 PM

QUOTE (Laser Show @ Aug 11 2009, 07:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Is it just me or does Green look VERY slow turning the double play?

He's definitely slow. And he's got horrible footwork. On the first DP he fucked up, he wasn't able to adjust to the hop the ball took because of how his legs were positioned and he got caught flat-footed. After fielding it in the crouch position, he teetered forward, fell off balance, and rushed his throw wide right.

On the second one, as noted, he let the ball take an extra hop -- as if he was going to great pains not to muff it -- and made the lazy-ass lob throw and it wound up costing him. He was wayyy to deliberate.

#35 Sprowl


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:54 PM

Tazawa was advertised as throwing 91-93 with excellent command of the fastball. The command isn't there tonight; neither is the velocity. He's pretty good in the face of adversity -- he looks like he doesn't get fazed easily by the roller coaster ride.

Fenway Inflation Factor definitely gone following the last road trip.

#36 Redkluzu


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:58 PM

Unfortunately I can't say that surprised me, especially with Cabrera going down. I hope Youk won't be suspended because their pitcher began the whole thing. And Youk did keep his cool last night.

Edited by Redkluzu, 11 August 2009 - 06:58 PM.


#37 rembrat


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:58 PM

Well, someone want to break that down? biggrin.gif

#38 mabrowndog


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:58 PM

Here's my cutting edge analysis of the brawl: Edwin Jackson is a raging pussy.

#39 TheShynessClinic


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:00 PM

Losing Youks is not good, however...having Porcello out of the game bodes well for the rest of this game and probably tomorrow too. The Tigers bullpen is going to be wasted.

#40 mabrowndog


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:01 PM

QUOTE (Redkluzu @ Aug 11 2009, 07:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I hope Youk won't be suspended because their pitcher began the whole thing. And Youk did keep his cool last night.

Even with someone other than Bob Watson meting out discipline for the league, Youk would definitely be suspended. Watson's presence virtually ensures it'll be heavy-handed.

#41 Stuart Scott's Lazy Eye


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:01 PM

Why is Eck struggling with the concept of, "An eye for an eye"? Clearly was throwing at him. Tazawa knocked out the Tigers best hitter, and you don't expect them to respond?

#42 E5 Yaz


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:02 PM

QUOTE (Redkluzu @ Aug 12 2009, 12:58 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Unfortunately I can't say that surprised me, especially with Cabrera going down. I hope Youk won't be suspended because their pitcher began the whole thing. And Youk did keep his cool last night.


The chances of Youk avoiiding a suspension from Bob Watson are about 1 in a quadrillion.

#43 ToeKneeArmAss


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:03 PM

QUOTE (rembrat @ Aug 11 2009, 06:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Well, someone want to break that down? biggrin.gif


Four-seamer



#44 phragle


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:04 PM

QUOTE (mabrowndog @ Aug 11 2009, 07:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Here's my cutting edge analysis of the brawl: Edwin Jackson is a raging pussy.

I agree.

I'll trade Youk to get Porcello out of the game.

Anyway. I dont think Taz had his best stuff in the beginning, his forkball has had more run and more sink as the game has progressed

#45 rembrat


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:04 PM

QUOTE (Stuart Scott's Lazy Eye @ Aug 11 2009, 08:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Why is Eck struggling with the concept of, "An eye for an eye"? Clearly was throwing at him. Tazawa knocked out the Tigers best hitter, and you don't expect them to respond?


To be fair, Porcello didn't look like he was expecting a fight. If he was throwing at Youks intentionally, I would have expected Porcello to drop his mitt hockey style and not retreat back.

#46 Beomoose


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:05 PM

QUOTE (mabrowndog @ Aug 11 2009, 05:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Even with someone other than Bob Watson meting out discipline for the league, Youk would definitely be suspended. Watson's presence virtually ensures it'll be heavy-handed.


Agreed. Especially since Youk sprinted out to Porcello and pretty much threw his helmet at the guy's legs. Watson's going to throw the book at him.

#47 Rudy's Curve

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:05 PM

QUOTE (Stuart Scott's Lazy Eye @ Aug 11 2009, 08:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Why is Eck struggling with the concept of, "An eye for an eye"? Clearly was throwing at him. Tazawa knocked out the Tigers best hitter, and you don't expect them to respond?


He hit him on an 0-2 pitch with two on and one out - that's not something I'd classify as intentional. Porcello nearly drilled Martinez on the first pitch with none on and two out in the first and then hit Youkilis on the first pitch to lead off an inning - certainly situations where it would seem to be intentional.

#48 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:05 PM

I am pretty impressed with Tazawa thus far. I came in to see that he was down 2-0 already feared the worst (homer, homer).

#49 rembrat


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:05 PM

Someone needs to get a screen grab of Mike Lowell with the graphic "Pinch Runner" underneath. That's high comedy.

#50 Sprowl


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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:06 PM

QUOTE (phragle @ Aug 11 2009, 05:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I agree.

I'll trade Youk to get Porcello out of the game.

Anyway. I dont think Taz had his best stuff in the beginning, his forkball has had more run and more sink as the game has progressed

Nice catch. His first two were hangers; the next bunch look pretty good.