157 replies to this topic

[BigPapiLumber Co.]

All,

So a few months ago Nip made me a member in one of those "first 20 lurkers to post in the game thread gets membership" deals. That's awesome, I finally get to read the messed up crap these un-well people post in P&G (haven't dared venture into the RSNDiaspora thread, and my well-being demands that I probably avoid it permanently).

Anyway, today I finally decide, "screw it, my finances aren't going to improve dramatically over the next few months, so I might as well just purchase the subscription now." So I click on the "Purchase Paid Subscription" link under my username. But I get an error message. My question is: is there a problem with the website (i.e., everyone who's trying to do this gets the same message) or is there a problem with my current status that won't allow me to purchase a paid subscription (I am not a "real member" or something and therefore I can't purchase a subscription)?

Thanks!

[absintheofmalaise]

All,

So a few months ago Nip made me a member in one of those "first 20 lurkers to post in the game thread gets membership" deals. That's awesome, I finally get to read the messed up crap these un-well people post in P&G (haven't dared venture into the RSNDiaspora thread, and my well-being demands that I probably avoid it permanently).

Anyway, today I finally decide, "screw it, my finances aren't going to improve dramatically over the next few months, so I might as well just purchase the subscription now." So I click on the "Purchase Paid Subscription" link under my username. But I get an error message. My question is: is there a problem with the website (i.e., everyone who's trying to do this gets the same message) or is there a problem with my current status that won't allow me to purchase a paid subscription (I am not a "real member" or something and therefore I can't purchase a subscription)?

Thanks!

It should work if you click on Store in the black line at the top of the board. Thanks for helping to support the site.

[adam42381]

I can help you guys meet your quota of special Ed teachers. I'm in my first year working with 6th graders with Autism here in Fort Myers. Oh, and I live in Gateway right down the road from the new spring training park. That counts for something, right?

[MIRedSoxFan]

This is a great idea...but I'd sure like to be able to access the store and have the opportunity to leave some of my money here!

[#10X100] Sorry, but you do not have permission to use this feature. If you are not logged in, you may do so using the form below if available.

Edited by MIRedSoxFan, 18 October 2011 - 08:55 PM.

[absintheofmalaise]

This is a great idea...but I'd sure like to be able to access the store and have the opportunity to leave some of my money here!

[#10X100] Sorry, but you do not have permission to use this feature. If you are not logged in, you may do so using the form below if available.

You can always support the site by going through the Amazon link at the op of the site whenever you make a purchase from there. Thanks for helping to support the site.

[absintheofmalaise]

This is how you become a member. If you'd like to see what it looks like in chart form click here.

For anyone who cares, I attempted to estimate the amount of value that a hitter of Ortiz' caliber ages 35-36 has historicaly retained over their age 37-38 seasons. In order to do this, I looked up the players with the top 25 OPS+ statistics between the ages of 35 and 36 (min. 900 PA total). Ortiz ranked 12th, so I thought this would be a good sample size to compare him to, since he was more or less right in the middle of the back. I then calculated their oWAR over ages 35-36 and compared that to their oWAR over ages 37-38. I used oWAR because that would reflect playing time, and I suspected that as players aged, the amount of games they would play would go down. I'm going to try to post my results here, I apologize in advance if the format is screwy.

35-36 oWAR 37-38 oWAR Value Retained Bonds 23.8 19.6 Ruth 20 14.5 Williams 13.1 15.1 McGwire 9.9 *0.4 Lajoie 13.5 8.9 Jones 13.2 4.9 McCovey 7.8 1.7 Aaron 11.7 11.5 Speaker 15.3 10.3 Ott 9.6 *-1.1 ORTIZ *6.9 * Musial 11.2 4.8 Wheat 9.3 5.7 Martinez 9.9 9.9 Thome 7.9 2.9 Wagner 13.3 11.7 Schmidt 10.4 6.3 Clemente 9.2 **3.2 Cobb 11.3 10.3 Cravath 8.1 4.9 Henrich 8.9 *1 O'Doul 8.9 *1.5 Fournier 7.6 *2.0 Thomas 6.5 3.3 Burks 7.8 4.3 Raw Total 268.2 157.6 58.80% Adjusted Total 214.1 150.6 70.30% *Retired before completing age 38 seasons **Died in an airplane accident before age 38

I came up with two results. When players did not complete their age 38 season due to retirement or death, they retained 58.80% of their oWAR between ages 35-36 and ages 37-38
And when players completed their age 38 seasons, they retained 70.30% of their oWAR between ages 35-36 and ages 37-38.

If Ortiz was to retain 70.3% of his oWAR from his age 35-36 seasons to his age 37-38 seasons, he would have an oWAR of 4.85 over the next two seasons or an oWAR of 2.45 per season. To give you some idea of what that might look like in terms of on-the-field production, I would look at his 2010 season, in which he had an oWAR of 2.4. In that season, he played 145 games and hit .270/.370/.529 (with 32 home runs and 102 RBI). According to fangraphs WAR value, he was worth $10.8 million that season. If you factor in an inflation rate of 10% a year, which is pretty typical year to year in baseball, that would make him worth $14.37 million in 2013 and $15.81 million in 2014.

This data would seem to suggest that Ortiz is worth giving a two year deal at the $12.5 million a year he's asking for.

[justbored]

I have tried to post insight on a number of threads over the last couple of months and up until tonight had no clue as to why I couldn't reply. After 20 minutes of once again trying to figure out why this was I found and read through this and the "Improving the Lurker System" thread. I will say that I have never been more turned off by a message board that I wanted to participate in. While I'm not sure what the perfect solution is, the idea of posting in this forum for no reason other to than impress and be judged has no appeal to me. Over the years this board has surely lost out on some great posters with something to bring to the table for the same reason. Just my two cents.

[pappymojo]

An FYI, this email doesn't seem to work.

 

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