25 replies to this topic

[ookami7m]

All sources point to the "big" deals being for either Halladay, Gonzalez, or Martinez (with or without Lee). Assuming the Sox only have a desire to move enough prospects to get one of these deals done, and also assuming that the parts moving over in exchange are relatively similar (all of them will be likely Buchholz + two or more top prospects) - Which of these deals do you think the Sox should go for?

Obviously this is baseless cheerleading for the deal of your choice - but hopefully it can corral that conversation here instead of in the more valuable discussions of things going on:

My vote - Gonzalez, as I think he's the exact kind of hitter that would thrive at Fenway and in this lineup. Plus he's younger and under more control going forward.

Edited by ookami7m, 27 July 2009 - 05:43 PM.

[opes]

Ricciardi is asking an insane price for Halladay, in which Doc wants to test FA in 1 1/2 yrs. Theres little point in trading the farm for 1 1/2 yrs of Doc, only to have him walk. Ricciardi will probably lose his job if he doesn't get a trade done. He should start by laying off the pipe, and come back down to earth.

Martinez is nice. He definitely won't be playing C, so if anyone is expecting that, forget it.

Gonzalez - Better stats, younger, cheaper contract. If Towers wants Buchholz, Masterson and Lars, make that deal today.

[Boggs26]

I'm working off the assumption that the prospect cost will be somewhat similar for any of these guys, which seems to be the media line. With that in mind, I have to go with Gonzalez. He's younger, less likely to deteriorate rapidly than a pitcher (and just a better player than Martinez) and probably more likely to be resigned. I think that the jump from Lowell to Gonzalez would be immense offensively and at least a wash defensively when you move Youk across the diamond.

[MoGator71]

I voted AGonz. He fills a glaring need, and at an age where you can lock him up and not worry about 1B for several years. I would actually try to find a way to do both Gonzalez and Halladay, or at least stay in the loop on Halladay until the deadline. But if it's one deal, one guy...Gonzalez is the target.

[JohntheBaptist]

As a huge fan, Halladay is really, really tempting.

But the cost to acquire him aside, Adrian Gonzalez is really the absolute perfect fit for the Red Sox in every way. It actually sort of reminds me of the Daisuke situation (in terms of their identifying something exponentially beneficial to the team and going after it hard), which is why I kind of think there's some fire behind the smoke. This organization fixes it's gaze on players occasionally and is, more often than not, comfortable doing whatever's necessary to get them.

Anyway. Gonzalez.

Edited by JohntheBaptist, 27 July 2009 - 06:01 PM.

[Toe Nash]

Cliff Lee is getting short shrift all over this board, including the first post in this thread which mentions a deal for "Martinez (with or without Lee)". He had a tough start to the year but has picked it up greatly since and his numbers are pretty similar to last year. Since his third start of the year he has a 2.66 ERA, and has only gone less than 6 IP once in 20 starts (with 14 games of 7 innings or more), and only given up more than 3 runs twice in those 20 starts. He's also just a completely different pitcher since the beginning of 2008 and has the peripherals to back up his numbers (FIP: 2.92 in 2008, 3.14 this year).

He's younger than Halladay and significantly cheaper next year ($9 mil team option). Halladay has the advantage of showing he can get it done in the AL East, but over the last two years Lee has a 2.11 ERA in 47 IP against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays, and his worst start during that time was against the Red Sox (5 R in 7 IP last year). Halladay has a 2.82 ERA in 165 2/3rds against those teams the last two years.

I voted for the VMart / Lee deal as that would go a long way towards solving both of the teams biggest questions, but I view Lee as the more valuable part of that package. If the Sox can get Lee it may be more valuable than Halladay, given the ransom JP seems to want.

[ookami7m]

Cliff Lee is getting short shrift all over this board, including the first post in this thread which mentions a deal for "Martinez (with or without Lee)". He had a tough start to the year but has picked it up greatly since and his numbers are pretty similar to last year. Since his third start of the year he has a 2.66 ERA, and has only gone less than 6 IP once in 20 starts (with 14 games of 7 innings or more), and only given up more than 3 runs twice in those 20 starts. He's also just a completely different pitcher since the beginning of 2008 and has the peripherals to back up his numbers (FIP: 2.92 in 2008, 3.14 this year).

He's younger than Halladay and significantly cheaper next year ($9 mil team option). Halladay has the advantage of showing he can get it done in the AL East, but over the last two years Lee has a 2.11 ERA in 47 IP against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays, and his worst start during that time was against the Red Sox (5 R in 7 IP last year). Halladay has a 2.82 ERA in 165 2/3rds against those teams the last two years.

I voted for the VMart / Lee deal as that would go a long way towards solving both of the teams biggest questions, but I view Lee as the more valuable part of that package. If the Sox can get Lee it may be more valuable than Halladay, given the ransom JP seems to want.

I just left the "with or without Lee" part because we've heard V-Mart rumors by himself and with Lee bolted on. I think Lee isn't that far of a step down from Halladay for much of the same reasons as you brought up.

[jtn46]

Gonzalez, easy.

Don't even want to do the other deals at the price they're going to cost.

Martinez is mostly a 1B, and isn't a big upgrade on what we already have.

Halladay is great, but is expensive in terms of prospects, and I don't want to watch Bard and Buchholz dominate us for the next 5 or 6 years.

[Plympton91]

Put me down for Lee, with or without Martinez.

Lee already is what we hope Buchholz becomes, and has the advantage of being lefthanded.

I am not down on Lars Anderson at all, but he's a first basemen and the Red Sox should be able to acquire a first baseman in some other fashion. If the deal were to include Victor Martinez, then the same logic would apply there -- Martinez already is what we hope Anderson becomes.

The Indians may value Reddick more highly than Anderson, and that'd be o.k. with me too.

I'd do Buchholz and Anderson/Reddick plus the Indians pick of anyone on our A-ball rosters other than Kelly for just Lee. Buchholz, Masterson, Anderson, and their choice of minor league catchers for Lee and VMart would be awesome.

[Wingack]

Considering everything, Gonzalez is the guy I would like to see the Sox acquire least as I do see him filling an enormous hole on the roster.

[SoxFanSince57]

AG because of his bat, position of need, age and contract length make him the top choice. Love the other guys, but not at the likely price, not at their ages and not because of their upcoming FA status.

[Beomoose]

I dislike popping the jewels out of the crown for short term-ers. Doc is way overpriced for 1.5 years and a chance to bid for him, and V-Mart/Lee are in the same big FA class even if the trade cost turns out more reasonable. Given the choice, and the cost, I'd rather trade for guys I think would be easier to retain. Adrian is in a dirt cheap contract through 2011 so the word "extension" will sound pretty enticing.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I'm pretty torn. In a vacuum I don't think Gonzalez is worth what the asking price is likely to be, but he fills a huge need, this team is poised to make another deep postseason run, and flags fly forever. If I'm Theo, I gag slightly and make the deal.

[JohntheBaptist]

One thing worth noting is that it's hard to envision a scenario where we get Gonzalez without giving up Buchholz (at least in a one-on-one trade). If that happens, something additional needs to be done about the hole in the rotation there. Our depth would be effectively wiped out.

[ookami7m]

One thing worth noting is that it's hard to envision a scenario where we get Gonzalez without giving up Buchholz (at least in a one-on-one trade). If that happens, something additional needs to be done about the hole in the rotation there. Our depth would be effectively wiped out.

I don't see any of these deals happening without giving Clay, but as you said this is the only deal where we wouldn't be getting a pitcher back...

[Montana Fan]

I don't see any of these deals happening without giving Clay, but as you said this is the only deal where we wouldn't be getting a pitcher back...

If you're Shapiro would you rather have the two picks a Type A will bring or Bowden & Bard or Bowden & Masterson? I think Martinez is the only one that can be had without giving up Buchholz.

Edited by Montana Fan, 27 July 2009 - 11:45 PM.

[redsoxstiff]

Halladay...Real estate....location...location etc...thus for me it is pitching ...pitching...Halladay...

[pk1627]

Sox have usually found a way to fill a glaring need at the deadline. With Lowell injured, we need a power corner. With Daisuke out, we need a #3 pitcher. I'm thinking the "blockbuster" trade involves SD with Gonzalez and a pitcher.

[mfried]

Gonzalez, easy.

Don't even want to do the other deals at the price they're going to cost.

Martinez is mostly a 1B, and isn't a big upgrade on what we already have.

Halladay is great, but is expensive in terms of prospects, and I don't want to watch Bard and Buchholz dominate us for the next 5 or 6 years.

Buchholz is not going to dominate good teams.

[OCD SS]

I don't see any of these deals happening without giving Clay, but as you said this is the only deal where we wouldn't be getting a pitcher back...

Sooooo... how do you feel about taking Peavy back with Gonzalez?

[86spike]

I'm really torn on this.

First off, I assume that any of these deals is going to cost us Buchholz plus at least 2 guys from the Bowden/Masterson/Lars/Bard pool and then maybe even something else. We're not getting any of those deals on the cheap (unless there's a giant salary dump attached, but still no sign of that being a possibility in the media reporting).

Adrian Gonzalez would be a massive, massive coup. For all the reasons deiscussed above.

But I'm sorely tempted to make the Cleveland move for both Martinez and Lee. VMart at his best is probably 80% as good as Gonzalez, but he does come with the incredible added bonus of being able to play catcher (I would assume at least half the time) pushing Tek to the bench much more, which is where he belongs if we want him to have any gas whatsoever left in his tank for the stretch run and hopefully the playoffs. That's a pretty huge benefit, IMO.

Cliff Lee would be a devastatingly good pick up to fill the hole left by Buchholz leaving in the trade (which I don't think is avoidable, nor should it be for top talent). Beckett, Lester, Lee, Penny is a championship rotation.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If you're Shapiro would you rather have the two picks a Type A will bring or Bowden & Bard or Bowden & Masterson?

I think he'd definitely want the players rather than the picks. Draft picks are great, but a few more years like the last two and Shapiro won't be around by the time those picks make the big leagues.

[Drek717]

Sooooo... how do you feel about taking Peavy back with Gonzalez?

That seems like the deal they should be most focused on, solves a lot of problems and does it long term. Won't be cheap, but it fills two massive holes.

[EastCoasterOutWest]

Gonzo hands down. He's young, cost controlled, hits to all fields and is a competent defender. Ortiz will most likely only get worse next year, and Gonzo could easily slot into a DH role, giving Youk/LaRoche time off at first and allowing Lowell to even slot into the DH role with Youk at third.

Besides the much needed infield depth at the corners, he is a more consistent hitter than LaRoche - even slightly better in the second half. He's a high OBP power-hitter who fits the mentality of this team and solves the problem of a dip in power in the lineup.

Lars could easily be a part of a deal for him, and I could be convinced that Buch would be worth it.

Just to add: There's also the possibility that Gonzalez behind Ortiz causes a jump in Ortiz's power #s (if one truly believes that Manny not hitting behind him has helped him into this "slump")

Edited by EastCoasterOutWest, 28 July 2009 - 11:36 AM.

[yecul]

Cost is a big factor here. We have as good an idea of Halladay's cost as you can get -- reportedly Buchholz, Kelly plus another top guy. We can safely assume that Gonzalez is going to take something similar, if not more.

The key might come down to Matsuzaka/Buchholz/Smoltz/Wakefield/Penny. If you have confidence in them then the Lee + Martinez package would not be as necessary and you're better of blowing your load on the single best player -- Gonzalez. If you have doubts and think you need a third starter to get to and have success in the playoffs, then getting Lee is a big positive while Martinez helps out the offense as well.

Based on reports, I bet Lee + Martinez come with a price that is the same or even less than either of the other guys alone. Maybe that is wrong.

[JMDurron]

That seems like the deal they should be most focused on, solves a lot of problems and does it long term. Won't be cheap, but it fills two massive holes.

For the long term, yes, but with Peavy's current injury, having to give up Buchholz to acquire him creates a big hole in the rotation for the short-term, until at least one of Wakefield/Peavy/Matsuzaka is healthy and ready to take a regular turn in the rotation again. Given that the Red Sox are pretty clearly competing to win right now, as well as trying to succeed in the future, I don't see them making a deal to sacrifice now for the future, at least not to the point of reducing the rotation to Beckett-Lester-Penny-Smoltz-Bowden/Masterson/Tazawa for any length of time.

I voted for Gonzalez, but if Buchholz is part of the cost to acquire him, we're just trading one significant problem (power in the lineup exacerbated by a team-wide slump) for another equally significant problem (rotation depth and ability exacerbated by injuries and Smoltz sucking).

EDIT to add - Any chance one of the Dopes could fix the thread name here? Getting the name of the top starter available at the trade deadline wrong seems...somewhat less than ideal.

Edited by JMDurron, 28 July 2009 - 12:05 PM.