469 replies to this topic

[Sprowl]

Clay Buchholz: how did his cameo appearance go?

Here's some of the data: 5.2 ip, 4 h, 1 er, 3 BB, 3 K, 103 pitches. His pitchfx charts look pretty good. Of the hits, 3 were to Overbay, and 1 to Lind -- both LHB. The Blue Jays have a RHB-heavy lineup, and Buchholz had them making weak contact throughout the early innings. He started off the first inning working the outside edge, and getting groundballs on the offspeed pitches, especially the changeup. Later on the changeup also gave him 5 of his 9 swinging strikes. His fastball command was very good at the start, with lots of tailing action catching the outside edge. Later on he grooved a few pitches, but only the lefties made him pay for it.

There was plenty of horizontal movement on the fastball, but no obvious distinction in movement or spin angle between 4-seamer and 2-seamer clusters, so it's hard to say exactly which pitches were sinkers and which were regular fastballs. Regardless of the intention, his fastball is moving visibly: it can't be described as straight-as-an-arrow anymore.

He was more assertive than last year, shaking off Varitek numerous times. He survived the stressful situations without melting down, getting one runner with a quick throw to third on a tapper back to the mound. Pitching from the stretch, formerly a weak spot, didn't seem to cost him much.

What did he look like to you?

Edited by Sprowl, 18 August 2009 - 07:21 PM.

[JulE6]

One thing that stuck out to me is he seemed to be in control a fair amount. He seemed a bit more deliberate than last year, but he also seemed more sure of what he was doing. His changeup looked very good, and the fastball had terrific movement to it. Threw a good amount of first pitch strikes, too.

[John DiFool]

Based on Gameday, looked like he got squeezed a bit on low breaking balls (then again I suspect Gameday's "strike zone" is drawn a bit too low).

[MentalDisabldLst]

The two walks to end the outing concerned me. That spoke, I think, to a bit of rising panic rather than a total loss of control, judging by his facial expressions at the time.

It should be clear to him, though, that if he throws his stuff over the plate it's going to get major leaguers out.

One other note from the game: It seems clear that Dan Bard has been promoted to #3 reliever, part of the A-team, taking Ramon Ramirez's spot. Looks like our pen hierarchy is:

Papelbon
Okajima
Bard
Ramirez
Masterson
Delcarmen
Saito

When your #7 guy has a 3.52 ERA, your pen is good. Masterson's 4.98 is the only one above that.

[Kremlin Watcher]

Thought his off-speed stuff looked pretty good, and he seemed to go to it pretty frequently, which is a good sign of confidence. The change in particular moved down and in to righties really well and he had good arm speed that fooled hitters badly.

[RoDaddy]

The change in Buchholz tonight was night and day compared wiht the chemical spill we watched last year. We probably watched the best of our future pitching staff tonight in Buchholz and a dominant Bard.

[Beomoose]

The curve was sick, and overall he looked pretty damn good. I'd like to have seen him burn a couple more fastballs inside to brush hitters back, and I worry that he could get squeezed right out of a game if he's not getting the outside corner. But overall, big fan.

[Savin Hillbilly]

We probably watched the best of our future pitching staff tonight in Buchholz and a dominant Bard.

It occurred to me tonight that Buchholz and Bard are the new Lester and Papelbon.

I thought Buchholz looked OK. He wasn't electrifyingly good, but in a way that was the good news: he appeared to be having kind of an ordinary night, and it was still good enough to stymie a major league offense. I think nothing could be better for Buchholz right now than some boringly competent starts where he neither dominates nor disintegrates, but just takes care of business. And that was what tonight felt like.

[roundegotrip]

His fastball is a totally different pitch. Is it the lower arm angle? Whatever it is, it just makes his changeup that much more effective. Throw in the breaking ball, and it's easy to see how he chewed up and spat out AAA lineups.

Edited by roundegotrip, 17 July 2009 - 10:31 PM.

[Otis Foster]

Sprowl and others can prove/disprove this, I've only got my lyin' eyes and a failing memory. I thought a lot of his pitches were up in the zone, in the area where danger lies. It also seemed to me that he had a little trouble with his command when he tried to move out of that plane. Obviously, not enough to make a difference. Savin Hillbilly captured it for me - competent is good enough.

Bard was overwhelming. The Jays reminded me of the way the Yanks looked during Pedro's one-hitter (possibly the most commanding athletic performance I've ever seen) - dead man walking.

[Eric Van]

I thought Buchholz looked OK. He wasn't electrifyingly good, but in a way that was the good news: he appeared to be having kind of an ordinary night, and it was still good enough to stymie a major league offense. I think nothing could be better for Buchholz right now than some boringly competent starts where he neither dominates nor disintegrates, but just takes care of business. And that was what tonight felt like.

This was exactly my take. Great pitchers will have lots of starts when one of their offspeed pitches isn't really working more than adequately, and on those nights they are just competent by their own elevated standards. We've all seen Clay's curve be much nastier but the life and command of his fastball were fine MLB quality, which he seldom had last year, and of course the change was working really well. On a day with the same FB and change but the swing-and-miss knee-buckling curve he's shown in the past, he'd be unhittable.

[paulftodd]

He looked good. Of course, if this was Brad Penny someone would start a thread about how he failed to go deep again. This is not an issue for your # 4 or # 5 starter though, nor for Clay.

I also temper my optimism by noting the Blue jays have lost 14 of 18 and have a 677 OPS scoring 3.7 RPG and their most highly paid offensive player was "sick" while their owner delivers a demoralizing blow by putting a "For Sale" sign on their ace pitcher.

That said, Clay will be 25 next month, he is ready. He pitched 134 IP last year, and with this start is now about 105, so he has another 50-60 IP in him this season. I would hate to waste them in the minors. Need to move either Penny or Smoltz for him and bring him up.

[Quintanariffic]

This was exactly my take. Great pitchers will have lots of starts when one of their offspeed pitches isn't really working more than adequately, and on those nights they are just competent by their own elevated standards. We've all seen Clay's curve be much nastier but the life and command of his fastball were fine MLB quality, which he seldom had last year, and of course the change was working really well. On a day with the same FB and change but the swing-and-miss knee-buckling curve he's shown in the past, he'd be unhittable.

Bingo. I noticed that he didn't throw as many hooks as he normally does, so I suspect he just wasn't feeling it in the bullpen warmups tonight and shied away somewhat. Good show. I'd rather have hims tarting than Penny and Dice-K for the rest of the year if he can do this with a broken cylinder.

[mfried]

Bingo. I noticed that he didn't throw as many hooks as he normally does, so I suspect he just wasn't feeling it in the bullpen warmups tonight and shied away somewhat. Good show. I'd rather have hims tarting than Penny and Dice-K for the rest of the year if he can do this with a broken cylinder.

Trade Penny if we can get something decent for him. Then bring up Clay. He won't get better in AAA.

[Dick Pole Upside]

Based on Gameday, looked like he got squeezed a bit on low breaking balls (then again I suspect Gameday's "strike zone" is drawn a bit too low).

I agree with this.

Fastball mostly 93-96 with a little tail on it. Change-up mostly 81 with nice arm action. That 14-15 mph differential really jumped out at me. Very nice. Seemed like he was working the upper half of the strike zone with the fastball... don't know if that was by plan or nerves.

My only nitpick is that his pacing was excruciatingly slow. Like Steve Trachsel-slow. I worry that his head gets filled up with crap when he takes that long between pitches. Looks like he kept it together pretty well. Right when things were looking 2008-ominous, Tito pulled the ripchord and got him out of there.

One other comment: To my eyes, Clay looks like he "humps up" on some of his fastballs, putting a lot of visible effort into the pitch. In contrast, there's the sublime smoothness of Bard's delivery. Easy cheese as Kaat put it (paging Eck). Bard had that great WHOOSH to his fastball last night, and the breaking ball that he threw to K Scutaro in the bottom of the 7th was fantastic. Scutaro flinched thinking the pitch was gonna hit him right in the ribs and it swooped in at 85. 99mph gas on the black will do that to ya...

[ShaneTrot]

Was it my imagination or was he shaking off Varitek a lot during the first couple of innings?

[Savin Hillbilly]

My only nitpick is that his pacing was excruciatingly slow. Like Steve Trachsel-slow. I worry that his head gets filled up with crap when he takes that long between pitches.

Maybe he takes that long between pitches to get rid of the crap in his head. If you saw the comments from Mike Cather in yesterday's Globe, last fall Buchholz came to him for advice because he felt he "couldn't slow the game down." So maybe he needs the time between pitches to still his mind and feel like he's in control.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Was it my imagination or was he shaking off Varitek a lot during the first couple of innings?

Before the game he said he was pretty determined to throw the pitches he wanted to throw and that if that meant shaking off Tek, he'd do it. Said that's what's worked for him in Pawtucket all year and that he planned to stick with it.

[Rough Carrigan]

I'd like to see him use the inside corner a bit more. It doesn't look like he was making guys respect the whole plate. Did he throw any inside fastballs for strikes to righties? Any?

And I thought he and Tek were doing that "not gonna show you all our pitches" thing in the first couple innings, right up until he got into trouble with a couple guys on at which point he busted out his curveball.

[Jnai]

I'd like to see him use the inside corner a bit more. It doesn't look like he was making guys respect the whole plate. Did he throw any inside fastballs for strikes to righties? Any?

Yes, but he was much more comfortable on the other side of the plate.

[Jnai]

Based on Gameday, looked like he got squeezed a bit on low breaking balls (then again I suspect Gameday's "strike zone" is drawn a bit too low).

The strikezone was indeed iffy on the bottom part of the zone...



http://brooksbasebal...f...o Blue Jays

Edited by Jnai, 18 July 2009 - 09:57 AM.

[jayhoz]

The belt high and above changeups were a bit unnerving last night. He either was lucky or the arm action was deceptive enough. Let's hope it was the latter.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

The two walks to end the outing concerned me. That spoke, I think, to a bit of rising panic rather than a total loss of control, judging by his facial expressions at the time.

I think fatigue may have been a factor. He's averaging about 86 pitches a start this year, and has only gone as high as 96 twice.

I agree with Savin's comment about the pacing of the game. Cather's article suggested that a lot of what they've been doing on the psychological side with Buch isn't so much the mushy "trust your stuff" approach but teaching him how to cognitively manage his starts and not let the games speed up on him.

[IpswichSox]

Before the game he said he was pretty determined to throw the pitches he wanted to throw and that if that meant shaking off Tek, he'd do it. Said that's what's worked for him in Pawtucket all year and that he planned to stick with it.

I saw that in-game interview, too, and it was definately an "I'm in charge out there" kind of statement. What struck me though is that Buchholz started shaking off Varitek beginning on the second pitch of the game. Particularly with Varitek's vaunted pre-game prep, I'm surprised they didn't have the first inning pretty well mapped out -- or at least the first batter. Also, when Buchholz was shaking off Tek, it was Tek's third signal that he'd accept. Like, Tek would put down a fastball, and Buchholz would shake it off. Then Tek would put down a curvevball, and Buchholz would shake that off before Tek put down the changeup.

I was just really surprised that Tek and Buchholz didn't seem to be on the same page for the first few innings, like the Sox had just called up someone from Portland for an emergency start and Tek didn't have a clue what the guy had.

Regardless, it was nice to see Buchholz back and throw a very competent, workmanlike performance in his first game of the year. It's all good.

Edited by IpswichSox, 18 July 2009 - 11:11 AM.

[phragle]

The strikezone was indeed iffy on the bottom part of the zone...

Which could have had to do with abandoning the curve. He could have used it against the lefties.

[Rough Carrigan]

Yes, but he was much more comfortable on the other side of the plate.

Technically yes, he did throw one or two of his pitches to righties inside. For all practical purposes, no. He only used one side of the plate and in the end he'll get killed trying to do that. Even Jamie freaking Moyer makes an effort to keep righties honest with some inside pitches. It casts into doubt, a little bit, the value of his time in Pawtucket.

If you were a righthanded hitter, wouldn't you just ignore the inside part of the plate when batting against Buchholz? You have a 2-2 count with a couple men on base, don't you crowd the plate? I mean, you have to guess among the pitches but he's taken away your indecision about location, hasn't he?

Edited by Rough Carrigan, 18 July 2009 - 02:24 PM.

[Quintanariffic]

Technically yes, he did throw one or two of his pitches to righties inside. For all practical purposes, no. He only used one side of the plate and in the end he'll get killed trying to do that. Even Jamie freaking Moyer makes an effort to keep righties honest with some inside pitches. It casts into doubt, a little bit, the value of his time in Pawtucket.

If you were a righthanded hitter, wouldn't you just ignore the inside part of the plate when batting against Buchholz? You have a 2-2 count with a couple men on base, don't you crowd the plate? I mean, you have to guess among the pitches but he's taken away your indecision about location, hasn't he?

Rough -

Don't you think that's going a little overboard? Was working inside even one of the key developmental objectives for him coming out of last season? Personally, I was extremely encouraged by the improved velocity and movement on his fastball, as well as his poise when men were on base. His fastball and his head were the two big things holding him back last year, and the strides he took in those departments seemed pretty obvious to me. He got ahead on the majority of hitters with the fastball and was able to hold a good offensive team to 1 run on 4 hits without much help from what is arguably his best pitch - the knee-buckling 11 to 5 curve. To have your takeaway from last night be focused on his lack of pitching inside strikes me as looking for a reason to be pessimistic more than weighing all the facts with a semblance of objectivity.

Edited by Quintanariffic, 18 July 2009 - 04:35 PM.

[PrometheusWakefield]

I know, it's just two games. But the man who pitched for the Red Sox yesterday was better than the man who pitched for the Red Sox today. I have more confidence in Buchholz being at least decent for the rest of the year, and I have much more hope that Buchholz could step up, become a major factor the rest of the way and earn himself a few playoff starts. And I think it's a travesty that Buchholz is the one being sent down.

[PedroSpecialK]

I know, it's just two games. But the man who pitched for the Red Sox yesterday was better than the man who pitched for the Red Sox today. I have more confidence in Buchholz being at least decent for the rest of the year, and I have much more hope that Buchholz could step up, become a major factor the rest of the way and earn himself a few playoff starts. And I think it's a travesty that Buchholz is the one being sent down.

I wouldn't quite call it a travesty yet, given that there are two weeks until the trading deadline. If Penny isn't shipped out, an addition like Halladay isn't made, and Buchholz is still in the minors on August 1, then yes, it would reach that level.

[NDame616]

I know, it's just two games. But the man who pitched for the Red Sox yesterday was better than the man who pitched for the Red Sox today. I have more confidence in Buchholz being at least decent for the rest of the year, and I have much more hope that Buchholz could step up, become a major factor the rest of the way and earn himself a few playoff starts. And I think it's a travesty that Buchholz is the one being sent down.

Buchholz being sent down isn't a reflection of Penny being better than him...its a reflection of a roster crunch. With Buchh in AAA, he's there as a "what if" factor. The Red Sox still have two pitchers on the wrong side of 40 and Dice K on the DL. If you trade Penny away, he's gone. We are a sprained ankle away from Charlie Zink for two weeks.

Maybe Theo is preparing a Saito/MDC trade and he will put Smoltz in the pen. I don't know. But I think getting rid of Penny could be a huge mistake and give us two weeks of a AAA pitcher in Augusty/September.

Brad Penny isn't winning the Cy Young, but can we really expect Buchholz to produce at a much higher level than a 4.7 ERA? Maybe. Probably. But I think the little difference between what we are likely to see from 15ish starts from Clay vs 15ish starts from Penny isn't enough to have Theo risk Zing toeing the rubber vs. the Yanks at the Toilet

[Rdsxmbnt]

Buchholz being sent down isn't a reflection of Penny being better than him...its a reflection of a roster crunch. With Buchh in AAA, he's there as a "what if" factor. The Red Sox still have two pitchers on the wrong side of 40 and Dice K on the DL. If you trade Penny away, he's gone. We are a sprained ankle away from Charlie Zink for two weeks.

Maybe Theo is preparing a Saito/MDC trade and he will put Smoltz in the pen. I don't know. But I think getting rid of Penny could be a huge mistake and give us two weeks of a AAA pitcher in Augusty/September.

Brad Penny isn't winning the Cy Young, but can we really expect Buchholz to produce at a much higher level than a 4.7 ERA? Maybe. Probably. But I think the little difference between what we are likely to see from 15ish starts from Clay vs 15ish starts from Penny isn't enough to have Theo risk Zing toeing the rubber vs. the Yanks at the Toilet

Exaggeration. Before Zink ever gets the ball a huge number of things would have to happen. First Dice-K will eventually be back and if he doesn't come back or isn't effective the depth doesn't stop there. Then Masterson has the ability to start games as does Bowden. Are either the best option? No, they're both young and inexperienced but they also have a good deal of talent and it very much makes Penny expendable.

[RedSox04]

I know, it's just two games. But the man who pitched for the Red Sox yesterday was better than the man who pitched for the Red Sox today. I have more confidence in Buchholz being at least decent for the rest of the year, and I have much more hope that Buchholz could step up, become a major factor the rest of the way and earn himself a few playoff starts. And I think it's a travesty that Buchholz is the one being sent down.

I would have to say I have more confidence going forward in Buchholz than I would in Penny. Yes it's only one game for Clay, and I understand the roster crunch situation, but I also believe the Sox need to spend the next 2.5 months coming up with the identity of the man who would pitch Game 3 and Game 7 in an ALCS if the situation dictated that Beckett and Lester get to pitch Games 1, 2, 5, and 6. I believe the Sox are hoping Smoltz takes that role. Daisuke was supposed to be number, but at this point, I think the Sox would only turn to him if they get desperate come September.

Penny has good stuff but doesn't have the ability to go deep into games or even dominate a game. I cannot recall any games where he went 7 innings and only surrendered 2 runs. It's always 3 runs in 6 innings or 4 runs in 5 innings or something like that. The man is a #5 starter with little reason to believe he'll be better.

Then there is Smoltz, and he'll get every opportunity to be that #3 starter, and deservedly so, but he's hardly a guarantee at this point, although I was encouraged by his last start despite only going 5 innings.

Wakefield has been the #3 starter but at his age and with his history down the stretch, particularly in the post-season, I'm not sure I'd want him pitching Game 4 let alone possibly get two starts in a best of 7 or a start in a best of 5.

The man with the best stuff and ability just might have pitched last night. Buchholz has the stuff, but he needs the opportunity and he has nothing to prove in AAA. How the Red Sox give him that chance should be interesting to watch, but it will be a shame if he doesn't get the chance. I'd have to believe the Sox will find a way to give him that chance.

[Rough Carrigan]

Rough -

Don't you think that's going a little overboard? Was working inside even one of the key developmental objectives for him coming out of last season? Personally, I was extremely encouraged by the improved velocity and movement on his fastball, as well as his poise when men were on base. His fastball and his head were the two big things holding him back last year, and the strides he took in those departments seemed pretty obvious to me. He got ahead on the majority of hitters with the fastball and was able to hold a good offensive team to 1 run on 4 hits without much help from what is arguably his best pitch - the knee-buckling 11 to 5 curve. To have your takeaway from last night be focused on his lack of pitching inside strikes me as looking for a reason to be pessimistic more than weighing all the facts with a semblance of objectivity.

If there are 15 posts above mine saying how Clay has improved, but I don't repeat their points (even though I don't contest their positive appraisals in any way) then I'm not accepting those points? Really?

Rather than regurgitate what had already been said I added the other impression that struck me. He still doesn't pitch inside. And he's going to have to or he won't get much better than he is now.

[NDame616]

Exaggeration. Before Zink ever gets the ball a huge number of things would have to happen. First Dice-K will eventually be back and if he doesn't come back or isn't effective the depth doesn't stop there. Then Masterson has the ability to start games as does Bowden. Are either the best option? No, they're both young and inexperienced but they also have a good deal of talent and it very much makes Penny expendable.

I know Zink is abut 10th on the depth chart and he will never throw for the Sox this season. I was just trying to prove a point that while Penny isn't ideal, he has been an OK major league quality pitcher for the past 3 and a half months. If he goes, we could be a twisted ankle away from someone who we probably would not want pitching for us down the stretch. Whether it's Bowden, Masterson or whoever would be next. I don't want Masterson or Bowden starting games for us in August.

The last time the Red Sox had too much pitching, Kyle Snyder started 10 games and Lenny Dinardo, Jason Johnson and Julian Tavarez started 6 each.

[dcmissle]

They need to be conservative because two guys in the rotation could easily break down. While I'm hoping and expecting that Dice K will return to effectiveness this season, I wouldn't count on it. I also would want no part of counting on Bowden down the stretch.

This suggests to me that Penny will be around unless and until they can get a very nice return for him, which I'm also not counting on. If at some point Penny begins to falter and the FO believes they can get more from Clay, I don't think they'd hesistate to switch out. There is no margin for error in this playoff race.

[Rasputin]

They need to be conservative because two guys in the rotation could easily break down. While I'm hoping and expecting that Dice K will return to effectiveness this season, I wouldn't count on it. I also would want no part of counting on Bowden down the stretch.

This suggests to me that Penny will be around unless and until they can get a very nice return for him, which I'm also not counting on. If at some point Penny begins to falter and the FO believes they can get more from Clay, I don't think they'd hesistate to switch out. There is no margin for error in this playoff race.

I just don't buy this.

The question is basically whether the difference between Buchholz and Penny for 14 starts is greater than the difference between Smoltz or Wakefield and Masterson/Bowden/Matsuzaka over some undetermined number of starts. There's a pretty good chance that the undetermined number of starts is in the low single digits and it's not like Masterson, Bowden, and Matsuzaka are horrible.

Meanwhile, if you look at this histogram posted by dbn in the AL East the Break thread you should see that there's a ginormous difference in terms of winning potential between allowing four runs and allowing six.



Do you trust Penny to not give up six runs when he's a little off? I don't. I trust Buchholz to do it much more than I do Penny. Buchholz just has better pitches to work with.

I guess my point is this. 14 games with a moderately greater chance of giving up those extra couple runs is more likely to be costly than a moderate chance of having to use an injury replacement for a smaller number of games even if that replacement has a more than moderately greater chance of giving up those extra runs.

[Quintanariffic]

If there are 15 posts above mine saying how Clay has improved, but I don't repeat their points (even though I don't contest their positive appraisals in any way) then I'm not accepting those points? Really?

Rather than regurgitate what had already been said I added the other impression that struck me. He still doesn't pitch inside. And he's going to have to or he won't get much better than he is now.

Yeah, really. There was no need to regurgitate, but you didn't even acknowledge those 15 points, so the inevitable conclusion, given that you focused on a contrary point, was that you disagreed with those 15 points. It's not really a big leap to make here.

[paulftodd]

I know, it's just two games. But the man who pitched for the Red Sox yesterday was better than the man who pitched for the Red Sox today. I have more confidence in Buchholz being at least decent for the rest of the year, and I have much more hope that Buchholz could step up, become a major factor the rest of the way and earn himself a few playoff starts. And I think it's a travesty that Buchholz is the one being sent down.

Of course, Penny had Kottaras catching, Buchholz had the wizard calling his pitches. In his 5 games where Kottaras caught other starters than Wakefield, the Red Sox starters have went 27 2/3 IP, 42 H, 23 R (Beckett accounted for 10 2/3 IP, 21 H, 14R). It's a SSS, doesn't prove anything, but neither does 1 start prove anything by either starter. Penny has been decent this year, Buchholz will probably be decent as well. Penny has to be traded before he can be replaced by Buchholz.

Also, forget about any playoff starts, Buchholz is at 105 IP, and his cap is likely 160 IP since he went 134 IP last year. He might have 10 good starts left in him before he gets shut down. I hate to see them wasted in Pawtuckett though.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Penny has good stuff but doesn't have the ability to go deep into games or even dominate a game. I cannot recall any games where he went 7 innings and only surrendered 2 runs. It's always 3 runs in 6 innings or 4 runs in 5 innings or something like that. The man is a #5 starter with little reason to believe he'll be better.

Luckily, we don't have to rely on memory. There's this thing called the Internet now.

True, he has never gone 7 full innings this year, but he has done these things:

April 22 - 6 IP, 2 ER, win vs. Min
May 20 - 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, win vs. Tor
May 30 - 6 IP, 2 ER, win vs. Tor
June 11 - 6 IP, 0 ER, win vs. NYY
June 17 - 5 IP, 0 ER, win vs. FLA
June 28 - 6 IP, 2 ER, loss vs. ATL
July 4 - 6 IP, 2 ER, loss vs. SEA

Further, they were clearly limiting his pitches - he was not allowed to go past 90 pitches in all of April, despite a big lead vs. Minny (left after the sixth with a four run lead and only 89 pitches), and on May 20 they pulled him at 96 pitches with two out in the seventh even though they were ahead by 6. Lately, he's been going over 100 pitches more frequently, and other than being cuffed around by Toronto he's been very effective, giving up 5, 0, 0, 3, 2, 2, 3 ER in his other starts since June 1.

Only for the Red Sox is this guy a #4/5. He's a #3 for many (non-playoff, admittedly) teams.

[Toe Nash]

I know, it's just two games. But the man who pitched for the Red Sox yesterday was better than the man who pitched for the Red Sox today. I have more confidence in Buchholz being at least decent for the rest of the year, and I have much more hope that Buchholz could step up, become a major factor the rest of the way and earn himself a few playoff starts. And I think it's a travesty that Buchholz is the one being sent down.

Well, it's not just two games. Penny has been pitching ahead of his ability for a while now (his last start pushed his ERA right up to where his peripherals say it should be) and it's at the least annoying that he wasn't traded earlier when he probably had more value. Besides the fact that Clay is a better pitcher.

Does anyone really think Masterson and Bowden (and Dice-K if he returns) are comparable to Kyle Snyder, Lenny Dinardo, Jason Johnson and Julian Tavarez?

[NDame616]

Well, it's not just two games. Penny has been pitching ahead of his ability for a while now (his last start pushed his ERA right up to where his peripherals say it should be) and it's at the least annoying that he wasn't traded earlier when he probably had more value. Besides the fact that Clay is a better pitcher.

Does anyone really think Masterson and Bowden (and Dice-K if he returns) are comparable to Kyle Snyder, Lenny Dinardo, Jason Johnson and Julian Tavarez?

The way DiceK has pitched this season, I think we would KILL for him to pitch like those players you mentioned.

Penny has done exactly what we would've hoped. In March, if you told anyone that at the ASB Penny would have 6 wins, 9 quality starts, a 4.7 ERA and not miss a start, people would be very excited at the signing.

Penny's last start was the first time he gave up more than 3 ERs in over a month. We like to look at the consistency that Lester and Beckett will give us, but as the 4th best starting pitcher in the rotation, Penny has been pretty damn reliable. Granted, he isn't going 7 or 8, but you can pretty much count on him getting into the 6th and giving up ~3 runs.

[Toe Nash]

The way DiceK has pitched this season, I think we would KILL for him to pitch like those players you mentioned.

He was hurt. If he returns, he would presumably be healthy.


Penny putting up a 4.50-5 ERA in 6 IP was fine when the bullpen was lights-out, and the team's 9-9 record in his starts shows this. But with the bullpen and offense regressing some, it's going to start costing more games as the pen gives up a run or two and the offense struggles to keep up.

[RedSox04]

Luckily, we don't have to rely on memory. There's this thing called the Internet now.

True, he has never gone 7 full innings this year, but he has done these things:

April 22 - 6 IP, 2 ER, win vs. Min
May 20 - 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, win vs. Tor
May 30 - 6 IP, 2 ER, win vs. Tor
June 11 - 6 IP, 0 ER, win vs. NYY
June 17 - 5 IP, 0 ER, win vs. FLA
June 28 - 6 IP, 2 ER, loss vs. ATL
July 4 - 6 IP, 2 ER, loss vs. SEA

Further, they were clearly limiting his pitches - he was not allowed to go past 90 pitches in all of April, despite a big lead vs. Minny (left after the sixth with a four run lead and only 89 pitches), and on May 20 they pulled him at 96 pitches with two out in the seventh even though they were ahead by 6. Lately, he's been going over 100 pitches more frequently, and other than being cuffed around by Toronto he's been very effective, giving up 5, 0, 0, 3, 2, 2, 3 ER in his other starts since June 1.

Only for the Red Sox is this guy a #4/5. He's a #3 for many (non-playoff, admittedly) teams.

You make a good point, showing his quality outings, and yes at times they were limiting his pitches, but the fact is that he started off with two horrendous outings that blew up his ERA. He's had all of this time and yet his ERA still hovers around 5. Yes for the Sox he is a #4 or 5 guy, but there is little probability that he can be more than that this season. With Buchholz that probabililty of being a pitcher who could rate higher than a #4 starter is higher and I think he needs to get the chance to be that guy. It's not like the Sox don't have other options if Penny were dealt, and Buchholz didn't succeed or there was an injury. The Sox have Buchholz and Bowden ready to step in. The main point I'm making is because I feel that Penny's ceiling with this team is limited the Sox need to find a way to get Buchholz a chance. It's not like he's going to take Wakefield's spot in the rotation unless he's injured so somebody has to go unless you're in favor of Buchholz pitching in Pawtucket all year. The Sox certainly didn't sign Smoltz with the intention of giving up on him or shipping him to the bullpen, so something has to give so that Buchholz has that chance to be the other guy who gets a start in the ALDS and the guy who'd get two starts in the ALCS. Buchholz's ceiling is much higher - the only question is when does he approach it - this year or next? There are signs that he could become a better pitching option that Smoltz, Wakefield, Daisuke and Penny this year. For me the biggest question since June has been who is the guy you want to match up against with Porcello or Joba or Saunders this year in the post-season? Wakefield, as much as I adore him and have appreciated the way he's stepped up this year to provide innings, isn't the answer I want to that question.

[NDame616]

He was hurt. If he returns, he would presumably be healthy.


Penny putting up a 4.50-5 ERA in 6 IP was fine when the bullpen was lights-out, and the team's 9-9 record in his starts shows this. But with the bullpen and offense regressing some, it's going to start costing more games as the pen gives up a run or two and the offense struggles to keep up.

I agree with you about the bullpen, however, there's a few points here:
-Someone a few posts ago brought up Buchholz's potential innings limit. He may only have ~8-10 starts left the season
-What about Buchholz makes us think he can consistently give us 7 innings everyday. Yea, the last start was a good one, but it wasn't *that* good, and it was against a poor hitting team
-The bullpen has regressed a tad, you're right. However, that was before the Sox found a dominant 7th/8th inning guy in Daniel Bard. I really think the heirarchy of the bullpen is going to dramatically change, with Bard getting in higher lev situations week by week until he gives Tito a reason not to put him in there. MDC's high lev innings are now going to be non-existant

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

-What about Buchholz makes us think he can consistently give us 7 innings everyday. Yea, the last start was a good one, but it wasn't *that* good, and it was against a poor hitting team

When did Toronto become a poor hitting team? They're tied with the Sox at an OPS+ of 101, 5th in the AL, and they're 6th in runs scored. They're not an elite hitting team, but they're certainly above average.

[PrometheusWakefield]

Seems to me that there are basically four considerations at work:

1. How much better is Buchholz than Penny?
2. How likely is it that one of our current starters gets hurt?
3. If that happens, what is the difference between Penny and Masterson (or Bowden or Matsuzaka)?
4. What can we get for Penny?

My take would be:

1. Probably significant, possibly very large.
2. Even odds.
3. Minor. A 5.02 ERA is a little worse than I would have expected from Masterson, so I'm almost indifferent between the two. (Yes, I know that Masterson has been bad in his last 8 innings, but this isn't about recent performance). I actually wouldn't mind seeing Matsuzaka given another chance to start this year if there is another injury to the rotation either.
4. Not sure, but at this point, I think this team is better without him even without a return.

Edited by PrometheusWakefield, 19 July 2009 - 01:35 PM.

[czar]

-Someone a few posts ago brought up Buchholz's potential innings limit. He may only have ~8-10 starts left the season

C'mon, the Sox will not be shutting Buchholz down at the end of August because of an innings limit. At that rate he'd be in line to throw 215 IP when he's 28.

[NDame616]

When did Toronto become a poor hitting team? They're tied with the Sox at an OPS+ of 101, 5th in the AL, and they're 6th in runs scored. They're not an elite hitting team, but they're certainly above average.

The past month.

.705 OPS (658 the past 2 weeks)
.245 BA
4.04 Runs/game (4.82 the whole season)

[ngruz25]

C'mon, the Sox will not be shutting Buchholz down at the end of August because of an innings limit. At that rate he'd be in line to throw 215 IP when he's 28.

Buchholz also threw 21 innings in the Arizona Fall League, bringing his total to 155.2 IP last season. A good chunk of those IP (76, to be exact) were high-stress MLB innings. He should be able to throw around 200 IP this season. He's currently a little over 100, so he's about halfway there. Lester went from 153 IP in 2007 to 210 (with postseason, 236) last season.

In sum, there shouldn't be any worries about the innings cap.

Edited by ngruz25, 19 July 2009 - 02:50 PM.

[czar]

Ngruz covered it but lurker judyb also hits on the AFL point, too:

Just wanted to remind someone that the Red Sox made sure to get Buchholz an extra 20+ innings in the AFL last season, and he's about to turn 25 years old, so you're probably on the right track thinking they have no intention of shutting him down over innings.