How are the A's possibly involved in this?
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Roy Halladay Trade Discussion
#101
Posted 10 July 2009 - 03:48 PM
How are the A's possibly involved in this?
#102
Posted 10 July 2009 - 03:51 PM
How are the A's possibly involved in this?
They would acquire him now and then trade him at the deadline next July for half of what they gave up for him. Or collect two picks.
#103
Posted 10 July 2009 - 03:53 PM
#104
Posted 10 July 2009 - 03:59 PM
How are the A's possibly involved in this?
They will be losing holliday at the end of the season, if not earlier. Halladay will be getting about 7 mil from his new team, and 14.75mil next. They are 11.5 games out of the division, and 15 games back of the WC. Fiscally I'm sure they could do it with Holliday off the books, but it doesnt make much sense for them at this point to take on an expensive player, when they should be selling off everything. Only thing I can think of is Beane is working some 3 way deal that send Halladay to someone else.
#105
Posted 10 July 2009 - 04:00 PM
Isn't at least part of the assumption about Halladay's willingness to waive his NTC focus on his going to a team with a chance to be competitive? And that ignores the possibility that he'll want an extension (which I don't see the A's providing).
#106
Posted 10 July 2009 - 04:04 PM
It's not really about what's in it for him and more as to what he wants to do with a trade. Since he has a full NTC, he can demand an extension now in order to waive it (in which case a team like Oakland has no shot). Or pitch the remainder of his contract in hopes of landing a huge FA deal aftern 2010 (which makes a little more sense considering the economy now).
In the latter case, it is possible (but unlikely) that Oaklnad could make the right offer to Toronto and then convince Halladay to come pitch for them for 1.5 years at most. It wouldn't be the first time a future FA gets dealt to a low budget team that is unable to resign him.
#107
Posted 10 July 2009 - 04:23 PM
take it with a grain of salt, but I'm pretty sure JP said he won't grant a team a window to sign an extension.
#108
Posted 10 July 2009 - 05:00 PM
Interesting. I haven't seen that, and would be very surprised if Halladay agreed to waive his NTC without one.
If that were the case it might lend a great deal of creedence to the idea that Doc's interest really is in winning. It could also make sense that he would want to see what a city/ organisation is all about before signing a long term deal.
#109
Posted 10 July 2009 - 06:13 PM
If that were the case it might lend a great deal of creedence to the idea that Doc's interest really is in winning. It could also make sense that he would want to see what a city/ organisation is all about before signing a long term deal.
He would probably waive the NTC without an extension to go to a team like BOS or other playoff team. His stock would almost certainly rise pitching for a contender versus playing out the remainder of his contract in Toronto...so in that sense, it might be worth more to him to play in a large market playoff contender the final year of his contract.
#110
Posted 10 July 2009 - 06:27 PM
They went on to discuss how in the dickens JP thought he might expect some team to back up the armored car without talking to Doc......
Edited by Omar's Wacky Neighbor, 10 July 2009 - 06:30 PM.
#111
Posted 10 July 2009 - 07:21 PM
NY Post's Joel Sherman:
http://twitter.com/n...atus/2535626710
#112
Posted 10 July 2009 - 08:08 PM
Assuming the "B's" are Buchholz and Bowden.
#113
Posted 10 July 2009 - 08:54 PM
True, but he's pretty much established his credentials; the only place for him to go is down (think injury). He could can get the same money now that he could get in two years.
#114
Posted 10 July 2009 - 09:01 PM
Agreed...but does Halladay really have that much leverage to demand an extension to waive his NTC? I guess that's debatable and might depend just how badly his suitor wants him.
If he doesn't waive his NTC, he plays out the remainder of his contract in Toronto anyway without an extension. I mean, obviously he would probably try to get the extension as part of the trade, but would he necessarily flat out reject any trade to a big market like Boston without an extension?
We also do not know just how much Halladay weighs the contract thing in his decision. He has taken discounts already from Toronto so the money might not be quite as important as winning for him these days.
#115
Posted 10 July 2009 - 09:14 PM
You figure that a deal for Halladay would obviously include Buchholz and Lars Anderson. The question is how much more would it take? I'd imagine the Sox might be fine with the Buchholz and Anderson as part of the equation but would bristle at having to include a Casey Kelly, a Stolmy Pimiental, and/or a Nick Hagedone/Stephen Fife. If the Sox could make the package include a Michael Bowden and a Ryan Kalish, perhaps they would make that deal? Don't know if that's something Toronto would want to do. I read they would want two major league ready (by 2010) quality top-rate regulars and two other prospects that are a little further on down the road.
My thinking is that as much as I'd hate to give up a Buchholz, I'd think you'd be giving up 3 - 4 quality years from Buchholz for 1.5 years of impact from an ace pitcher, you'd give up a strong potential 1B bat in Anderson which could hurt the Sox, but I'd think it would be easier to pick up a 1B/3B on the FA market in the future, plus I am intrigued by Anthony Rizzo, a 1B who has been playing well in A ball. Bowden is a #4 type starter (not a blue chip, but if comparisons are to Jeff Suppan, that's not a bad pickup at minimum wage for Toronto.) Kalish also has promise as well, probably as a guy who will hit 15-20 homers per year with some good speed who can play CF, which could appeal to Toronto, but last I checked, the Sox seemed to have stocked up on CF with promise (Westmoreland, Hissey, Fuentes, Lin, Reddick)
Maybe that package would work and allow the Sox to keep Kelly, Hagedone, Pimiental, and Fife.
The great thing is the Sox would get an another ace to pitch (I don't see Halladay drastically making the Sox better in the regular season, although I think he'd relieve the burden on the bullpen) in the post-season, and that's where I think dominant starting pitching is most impactful.
Then, I would most likely let Halladay walk away, assuming he wants a 6 years $120 million deal or whatever. Collect the two picks and try to replace Buchholz and Anderson with them. I'd imagine the Sox could find two 1st round picks that could be impactful players for the future. Of course the fly in the ointment with my thinking is that the Sox would have to find a pitcher to replace Hallday and a 3B/1B to replace Lowell. As great as Halladay is, I'd be leery of signing a guy at 33 to a 5 or 6 year deal, especially a guy with that many innings behind him.
I honestly don't think Theo would be interesting in the proposal I'm talking about, and I'm not even sure Ricciardi would go for it. I also think Ricciardi would be most likely inclined to deal Halladay to any other division but the AL East (probably the NL). I don't really expect anything to happen, but it is interesting to think about. Like I said, a bat is great over the long-term of the season, but when you can stack aces in the post-season and have a deep, well-rested bullpen behind them, I would think that would be a recipe for a World Championship or two, and I certainly would be nervous about starting Daisuke, Lester, Penny, or even Wakefield (actually I have no desire to see him ever start of post-season game again) in a Game 3 of a post-season series. I honestly think that might be a bigger detriment to the Sox winning the World Series than a big bat, which the Sox certainly do need.
Edited by RedSox04, 10 July 2009 - 09:15 PM.
#116
Posted 10 July 2009 - 09:35 PM
If he doesn't waive his NTC, he plays out the remainder of his contract in Toronto anyway without an extension. I mean, obviously he would probably try to get the extension as part of the trade, but would he necessarily flat out reject any trade to a big market like Boston without an extension?
We also do not know just how much Halladay weighs the contract thing in his decision. He has taken discounts already from Toronto so the money might not be quite as important as winning for him these days.
JP still needs to cut payroll (otherwise he wouldn't trade him in the first place), I think the issue is that if Halladay wanted an extenstion to waive his NTC he could easily compel that from JP by simply telling him so. The only way JP can say "I will not grant an exclusive negotiating window" is with Doc's explict aproval, and that's a bit odd.
#117
Posted 10 July 2009 - 09:52 PM
How are the A's possibly involved in this?
Just a guess, but Oakland under Beane has a history of serving as a middle-man in these kinds of deals. They may be evaluating Halladay on their own to gauge his value and determine what price they would want to extract from the third team which really wants him but doesn't have the necessary parts to deal with Toronto directly. Or Oakland might just want to unite Matt Holliday with Roy Halladay for marketing purposes to sell some t-shirts...
#118
Posted 11 July 2009 - 06:30 AM
This leads me to believe that they're not interested in trading for Halladay.
#119
Posted 11 July 2009 - 10:20 AM
This, coupled with JP's refusal to grant an exclusive negotiating window is going to severly limit JP's return. This might explain why some teams are already starting to pull some of their top prospects back in discussions. Halladay as only a guaranteed 1/2 season rental will put his value a lot closer to the Angels/ Braves Teixeira trade.
Edit: the more I think about it, the more I think this is wrong. Unless Doc had this language written into his contract, the source is relying on his being grandfathered in on the protection assigned players signing a long term deal.
- IIRC this protection was afforded to players who signed as FA's, rather than extensions (which Halladay did), so it wouldn't apply.
- I believe the clause cannot be invoked if the player has no-trade protection (as Halladay does); since Doc would need to waive his NTC in any deal, I don't think he can come back at the end of the season to ask for a trade.
Edited by OCD SS, 11 July 2009 - 11:02 AM.
#120
Posted 11 July 2009 - 01:02 PM
This, coupled with JP's refusal to grant an exclusive negotiating window is going to severly limit JP's return. This might explain why some teams are already starting to pull some of their top prospects back in discussions. Halladay as only a guaranteed 1/2 season rental will put his value a lot closer to the Angels/ Braves Teixeira trade.
Edit: the more I think about it, the more I think this is wrong. Unless Doc had this language written into his contract, the source is relying on his being grandfathered in on the protection assigned players signing a long term deal.
- IIRC this protection was afforded to players who signed as FA's, rather than extensions (which Halladay did), so it wouldn't apply.
- I believe the clause cannot be invoked if the player has no-trade protection (as Halladay does); since Doc would need to waive his NTC in any deal, I don't think he can come back at the end of the season to ask for a trade.
That doesn't make sense at all. Even if he could demand a trade so what? The team would have had a year to trade him and he would only be on the team one more year.
#121
Posted 11 July 2009 - 01:07 PM
You're missing the point. The old rule, which is no longer valid under the CBA, was that a player on a multi-year deal traded mid-contract could demand a trade at the end of the season he was traded. Thus if the rule applied here, someone could acquire Halladay, have him for the remainder of 2009, and then at the end of 2009 he could demand a trade or else be granted free agency. Again, I dont believe this rule applies here unless all old contracts were grandfathered in. If so, Boston could give up Buchholz+ for two months of Halladay and then be forced to trade him at the end of the season. Thats the concern mentioned above.
#122
Posted 11 July 2009 - 01:12 PM
Unless, of course, they agreed to a 3-4 yest extension with Halladay, who then rescinded his demand to be traded.
If the Sox are interested in getting Halladay, especially at the prospect cost, it's doubtful they'd do it for just 09-10. An offseason extension would make the trade demand clause moot.
#123
Posted 11 July 2009 - 01:14 PM
Any deal signed before 10/06 (when the current CBA went into effect) was grandfathered in for the purposes of this rule. Halladay signed his extension in 3/06, so it appears he'd have this trade-demand right.
#124
Posted 11 July 2009 - 01:17 PM
#125
Posted 11 July 2009 - 03:29 PM
If the Sox are interested in getting Halladay, especially at the prospect cost, it's doubtful they'd do it for just 09-10. An offseason extension would make the trade demand clause moot.
Why would Halladay want a 3-4 year extension? If he maintains his health and performance through FA, he is likely to get Santana/Sabathia money and years. I'm just guessing here, but if I were Halladay, the minimum extension I'd consider signing would be something around 4/100. And, before people jump on my comment and say that he won't be a free agent so he'd sign for less, I am taking that into account. The discount, in this case, is years, and not dollars. 6/120 might be a realistic extension too. Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the game and is going to want to be paid like it, especially since the idea of a hometown discount goes out the window after he gets traded. You have to wonder if the Red Sox are going to be willing to spend that type of money on a pitcher on the wrong side of 30.
#126
Posted 11 July 2009 - 04:30 PM
Trading a player with a full NTC is akin to making him a FA (see the Santana trade). That Halladay hasn't done this means he is doing Toronto a good turn by not sucking away a lot of value in the deal.
#127
Posted 11 July 2009 - 06:09 PM
Trading a player with a full NTC is akin to making him a FA (see the Santana trade). That Halladay hasn't done this means he is doing Toronto a good turn by not sucking away a lot of value in the deal.
He could. But, as you point out, he isn't. Thus, his situation in terms of an extension, if traded for, is not analogous to that of Santana but to a normal player a year and a half removed from free agency. My point was that, even given the latter situation, the cost of extending Halladay might be substantially more than the Sox would be willing to offer and might not be the optimal move for the team. Even at a discount, Halladay, if extended, will probably cost more than twice as much as any player currently pitching for the Red Sox.
#128
Posted 12 July 2009 - 09:04 AM
I'm wondering about the Yankees' steadfastness now as Pettitte appears to be on the same second-half decline he charted last season and the Angels make mincemeat of the Yankees' *improved* pen, which also is the subject of some commentary by Cashman later in these notes. If you can keep Joba out of a trade, why don't you just get him?
Rice is right, to a large degree. All you have to do is point to last season, when Manny Ramírez led the Dodgers to the playoffs. He couldn’t get them past the Phillies in the National League Championship Series, but his value was never greater than from Aug. 1 to mid-October.
Halladay, however, is perceived as a savior.
“A great pitcher can make an impact, no doubt about it,’’ said Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, speaking in generalities because he can’t comment on another team’s player. “Look at last year with [CC] Sabathia and Milwaukee. I saw it firsthand in 2001 when we played the Arizona Diamondbacks in the World Series, where in a short series they had Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling and that was very difficult to overcome. I suppose a lot of it depends on who else you have in the rotation. But impact? Sure, a great pitcher can make a difference in a race.’’
One National League scout who has evaluated Halladay for a possible deal said, “If Boston or the Yankees got him, race over. I think he guarantees one of those teams the pennant. He may even guarantee you win the World Series. Imagine looking at Halladay and Josh Beckett in the same rotation in a playoff series. That would be nearly impossible to overcome.’’
But the reaction American League East GMs have received is that Toronto’s J.P. Ricciardi would likely not want to deal Halladay within the division. The Yankees and the Red Sox also feel, to some extent, that they already have the pieces to win it all, and would hate to trade away valuable young players for a veteran.
Cashman made that decision when he walked away from a deal for Johan Santana two offseasons ago. It would have involved giving up Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes, and Jeff Marquez, who was used to acquire Nick Swisher, now the Yankees’ starting right fielder. Hughes has been tremendous as a late-inning reliever, and Cabrera has had a good season in center. Instead, Cashman elected to keep his younger players, and a year later sign Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.
The Red Sox appear to be taking a similar stance, and have a track record of doing so during GM Theo Epstein’s tenure. Epstein had the chance to obtain Roy Oswalt a few years ago, but backed off. He also had a chance to obtain Santana, but would have had to give up Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz.
http://www.boston.co..._spirit?mode=PF
Edited by Cuzittt, 12 July 2009 - 09:09 AM.
Snipped overly long excerpt
#129
Posted 12 July 2009 - 09:27 AM
I view that kind of major enlargement of the deal the only way (and it is IMPROBABLE to say the least) the Sox get Halladay.
#130
Posted 12 July 2009 - 12:24 PM
One of those scouts is Sal Butera, a special assistant to Blue Jays General Manager J.P. Ricciardi.
#131
Posted 13 July 2009 - 09:15 AM
#132
Posted 13 July 2009 - 09:41 AM
And from the back of the room, SAM enters. He's escorting
two young AIRMEN in Air Force dress uniforms. SAM shows the
AIRMEN to a seat near the front, and takes his place at the
defense table.
#133
Posted 13 July 2009 - 01:01 PM
#134
Posted 13 July 2009 - 01:12 PM
#135
Posted 13 July 2009 - 01:14 PM
They've already got a full dossier on Buchholz. Likely just a little stagecraft on J.P's part as he wants all of MLB to believe a Halladay trade to Boston is close at hand.
#136
Posted 13 July 2009 - 01:19 PM

As for myself, I love Halladay, but not now and not at the price he's likely to fetch. Short-term, he costs too much for the incremental gain he brings to the rotation, and may detract from our ability to get another bat, which is what we really need; I take no more comfort in losing playoff games 2-1 rather than 6-1. Long term, he's going to want the sort of contract Theo hasn't been willing to give to pitchers, and it's hard to see the FO shelling out the $ to keep both Beckett and Halladay.
#137
Posted 13 July 2009 - 01:22 PM
"I'd rather hit than face Jeter, A-Rod, Matsui and Teixeira," Halladay said.
If I were Halladay, I would not go to Boston, New York or Tampa without an extension, when I could potentially pitch in Dodger Stadium or ATT. He has to think with his impending free agency in mind and a year in a half of pitching by the bay or in LA would certainly help his numbers more than having to face the big three in the AL East multiple times.
http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=4324204
EDIT: the price for the Dodgers or Giants is going to be somewhat lower in prospects because they dont have to pay Ricardi the premium for trading him inside the AL or worse, the division, and Halladay will have no objections. The price for the Phillies in prospects is probably similar to any other NL team, but I can't see Halladay going there without an extension due to the fact that pitching in that bandbox is going to hurt his price next winter.
The Giants should trade some of their young pitching for Doc and take Rios or Rolen as well. They would be set up very nicely and Sabean has mentioned several times that they have money to spend.
Edited by Gunfighter 09, 13 July 2009 - 02:03 PM.
#138
Posted 13 July 2009 - 01:22 PM
Unless that stage direction is "exit, pursued by a bear".
Edited by PrometheusWakefield, 13 July 2009 - 01:26 PM.
#139
Posted 13 July 2009 - 01:43 PM
#140
Posted 13 July 2009 - 01:45 PM
He is almost never right, especially in regards to timing. It's always within a few days and it never happens that soon.
I'm starting to think that Halladay won't even get traded. Unless they get a HUGE haul they'll just hang onto him.
#141
Posted 13 July 2009 - 01:54 PM
Where does his rotation spot come from? Trading Penny, right? That's always a tough line to walk- I wouldn't expect to get much for Penny after a Halladay trade when he doesn't even have a rotation spot.
If you traded him before anything got serious with Toronto... would it be too far fetched to think that Penny could bring something that would, as part of a larger deal, interest Toronto? I suppose you could then use Buchholz in Penny's spot in the interim- and, of course, for the remainder of the season should a deal not materialize. Or, you could replace him with Halladay in a trade a know you've got Dice-K coming in Sept and Bowden backing up the AARP crowd in Pawtucket.
Lot of moving parts there, I know. It's an interesting scenario though- ultimately I don't know if all the hoop-jumping and young talent it would require is worth it. It'd be close though.
#142
Posted 13 July 2009 - 02:05 PM
Now, is he worth the acquisition cost? Is he going to resign? Are there other preferable trade targets? Those are questions whose answers could make me pass on him.
I do not expect Boston to acquire Halladay. I do not expect Boston to make any trade of significance at all. Halladay getting moved looks more like a possibility/probability and not a definite at this point. I imagine there are 7+ teams on the phone with the Jays and that 5+ of them (or maybe all) are just keeping tabs to see if the price drops.
#143
Posted 13 July 2009 - 02:05 PM
Where does his rotation spot come from? Trading Penny, right? That's always a tough line to walk- I wouldn't expect to get much for Penny after a Halladay trade when he doesn't even have a rotation spot.
If you traded him before anything got serious with Toronto... would it be too far fetched to think that Penny could bring something that would, as part of a larger deal, interest Toronto? I suppose you could then use Buchholz in Penny's spot in the interim- and, of course, for the remainder of the season should a deal not materialize. Or, you could replace him with Halladay in a trade a know you've got Dice-K coming in Sept and Bowden backing up the AARP crowd in Pawtucket.
Lot of moving parts there, I know. It's an interesting scenario though- ultimately I don't know if all the hoop-jumping and young talent it would require is worth it. It'd be close though.
Who's to say that this isn't the case? I know they have publicly stated Buchholz will be up here for one start, but Penny could always be traded right after the all star break, thus keeping Buchholz up here until traded for Halladay.
#144
Posted 13 July 2009 - 02:26 PM
"I'd rather hit than face Jeter, A-Rod, Matsui and Teixeira," Halladay said.
Yeah, I can't imagine him wanting to face a team he absolutely dominates.
OPS against:
Jeter: 83AB, .589
ARod: 66AB, .785
Matsui: 50AB, .723
Teixeira: 26AB, .605
Boston has given him a bit of trouble over the years, but he's absolutely mowed down the Yankees to the tune of a 2.90 ERA in 223 1/3 innings, while he's compiled a 4.46 ERA in 240 1/3 career innings versus Boston. Perhaps I'm reading a bit too much into the comment...
#145
Posted 13 July 2009 - 02:34 PM
OPS against:
Jeter: 83AB, .589
ARod: 66AB, .785
Matsui: 50AB, .723
Teixeira: 26AB, .605
Boston has given him a bit of trouble over the years, but he's absolutely mowed down the Yankees to the tune of a 2.90 ERA in 223 1/3 innings, while he's compiled a 4.46 ERA in 240 1/3 career innings versus Boston. Perhaps I'm reading a bit too much into the comment...
What I read into it is that he chose those names to let Theo know he wants a Santana contract to wave his NTC.
#146
Posted 13 July 2009 - 02:35 PM
Right- my point wasn't considering that they pass on him because they may not have a slot- initially it was that, obviously if you got him, one of those 5 would have to go, and that the obvious choice would be Penny. So I was wondering, with that given, how it would or could shake down.
Edited by JohntheBaptist, 13 July 2009 - 02:35 PM.
#147
Posted 13 July 2009 - 03:20 PM
Where does his rotation spot come from? Trading Penny, right? That's always a tough line to walk- I wouldn't expect to get much for Penny after a Halladay trade when he doesn't even have a rotation spot.
I don't think Penny's trade value drops just because we get Halladay and he doesn't have a spot in the rotation. If anything, the other teams that lose out on the sweepstakes will still need pitching, and he conceivably could be worth a little bit more once Doc is no longer on the market.
Edit-Sp.
Edited by P'tucket, rhymes with..., 13 July 2009 - 03:21 PM.
#148
Posted 13 July 2009 - 06:40 PM
According to a baseball source, the Toronto Blue Jays will not allow any interested team to negotiate with a player should a trade be agreed upon prior to the July 31 trading deadline. In some cases, teams shopping a player like Halladay will allow interested clubs to negotiate with the player prior to formalizing a trade. In this case, the Jays have no such intention.
Extra Bases
#149
Posted 13 July 2009 - 06:55 PM
#150
Posted 13 July 2009 - 06:57 PM
The old rule gave the team a year to trade him. Thats why what was written was impossible.
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