[Frisbetarian]

The sport editor from the Harford Courant is looking for your opinions on who should start at first base for the American League in the 2009 All Star Game. He would like to get feedback today, so if you can get your post in here by 4:30 or 5 it would really help him out.

What say you SoSH? Youkilis or Teixeira? Or someone else?

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Kevin Youkilis had a better year in 2008, and he is having a better year in 2009. He missed two weeks, which is really Teixeira's only argument. I think Youks is the guy.

[rembrat]

It's Kevin Youkilis and it's not even close.

As a 1B:
Youkilis -.328/.461/.603
Tex - .264/.375/.547

And since that isn't really fair to Teix because of the PA difference (Youk has played a bit at 3B giving him les PA at 1B) here are Youkilis overall slash stats .317/.443/.588. Still a ton better than Teixeira's.

wOBA also gives the edge to Youkilis:

Youk - .440
Tex - .402

The people that give Teixeira the edge are the people that put a lot of stock in HR and RsBI numbers.

[Alternate34]

The sport editor from the Harford Courant is looking for your opinions on who should start at first base for the American League in the 2009 All Star Game. He would like to get feedback today, so if you can get your post in here by 4:30 or 5 it would really help him out.

What say you SoSH? Youkilis or Teixeira? Or someone else?

Youkilis

Youkilis - .443 OBP, .588 SLG
Teixeira - .384 OBP, .568 SLG

Youkilis also has a higher batting average. Teixeira's power numbers (especially HRs) are inflated by playing in the New Yankee stadium, though Youkilis does benefit from Fenway.

I am receptive to arguments about playing time, but it's not like Youkilis is injury prone. Defense, they are at least even, though I think Youkilis is a bit better. The last half of the previous season, they both did well.

[absintheofmalaise]

After looking at a variety of numbers, BtRuns, OPS, OPS+, RC/G and a few others, I'm going with Youkilis. His OBP is the key for me. lgOBP is .347. His is .443 while Teixeira's is .384 while the lgOBP for him is .337.

[Wade Boggs Hair]

I would go with Youkilis. He has better rate stats across the board (.317/.443/.588 vs. .275/.384/.568). From BP, Youk leads Teixeira in VORP (30 to 21.2) despite 60 fewer PAs. And while FanGraphs gives Teixeira a razor's edge in WPA (2.25 to 2.23), it gives Youkilis a big edge on defense (+10.7 UZR/150 to -3.1 for Teixeira). Teixeira also has a slim lead in WARP3 (6.2 vs. 6.1), but I think Youkilis' ability to match Teixeira in the advanced metrics despite time on the DL mitigates those narrow differences.

Apart from the numbers, I think Youkilis' ability to play third has added significant value to his team, given the recent injury to Mike Lowell and the need to play David Ortiz at 1B during road interleague games.

EDIT - beaten to the punch on some of the numbers.

This post has been edited by Wade Boggs Hair: 01 July 2009 - 02:28 PM

[PrometheusWakefield]

Lets not forget that Teixeira has moved from the best offensive park in the American League to... er... the new best offensive park in the American League. Teixeira stats show the impact:

Teixeira home .397 OBP .669 SLG 1.067 OPS
Teixeira away .373 OBP .472 SLG .845 OPS

Youkilis' stats on the road are basically equal: 1.070 at home, .998 on the road.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Lets not forget that Teixeira has moved from the best offensive park in the American League to... er... the new best offensive park in the American League. Teixeira stats show the impact:

Teixeira home .397 OBP .669 SLG 1.067 OPS
Teixeira away .373 OBP .472 SLG .845 OPS

Youkilis' stats on the road are basically equal: 1.070 at home, .998 on the road.

Yes, this is sort of the hammer to the argument. People looking at Teixeira's OPS+ have to realize that the park numbers BR is using are from the old stadium, not the new one. When they switch (after the season?) MT's adjusted numbers will plummet.

[Frisbetarian]

I think an argument could be made that Teixeira is only the 4th or 5th best 1st baseman in the AL this year. Branyan, Cabrera, and Morneau are all having great seasons, and Carlos Pena and Victor Martinez (if you count him as a first baseman - 39 games there vs 38 as a catcher) don't suck either.

[kanga12]

What say you SoSH? Youkilis or Teixeira? Or someone else?

Not to hijack this thread, but it does bear mentioning that Teixeira's numbers aren't that much better than some of his fellow AL first basemen -- and in some cases, worse:

Teixeira (NYY): .275/.384/.568 (20 HR, 60 RBI), 146 OPS+
Branyan (SEA): .303/.400/.606 (19 HR, 40 RBI), 164 OPS+
Morneau (MIN): .313/.394/.582 (19 HR, 64 RBI), 160 OPS+
Cabrera (DET): .332/.397/.557 (16 HR, 47 RBI), 146 OPS+

Edit: Fris beat me to the punch.
2nd Edit: Corrected typos

This post has been edited by kanga12: 01 July 2009 - 05:43 PM

[joyofsox]

Offensive Winning Pct.

Youkilis: .776

Teixeira: .695

[kiransdad]

Between Youkilis and Morneau; Youk has the edge in UZR (Morneau and Teixeira are comparable at -2) as well as in batting (over Morneau) so I'd go with him.

[yecul]

The argument for Tex would either have to be centered on his one awesome month, a total focus on HR and RBI, or to simply ignore baseball to be cynical and say how New York has a larger population to vote than Youkilis.

Others have illustrated why Youkilis *should* win, but that isn't always the final outcome.

[Frisbetarian]

Between Youkilis and Morneau; Youk has the edge in UZR (Morneau and Teixeira are comparable at -2) as well as in batting (over Morneau) so I'd go with him.

As always, I feel compelled to remind folks that it really takes 3 years of data before even the more complex defensive evaluation systems are close to accurate (especially for 1st basemen), and that partial year numbers can be quite misleading. When you have multiple years of data for a player it is always better to look at a player's history than his partial year. I'm not meaning to pick on you, kirins, and am fairly certain UZR's creator would tell you the same thing.

Youkilis is a very good defensive 1st baseman, Teixeira is a great one. But he's not good enough to make up for the offensive difference between the two this season, and Youkilis is the clear choice for 2009 AL All Star Team at 1st base.

[Beomoose]

.317/.443/.588? Youk. All day every day.

[OCD SS]

As always, I feel compelled to remind folks that it really takes 3 years of data before even the more complex defensive evaluation systems are close to accurate (especially for 1st basemen), and that partial year numbers can be quite misleading. When you have multiple years of data for a player it is always better to look at a player's history than his partial year.

In this case though, I think you can use the small sample size numbers. We're looking at what a player has done in this half season (depending on your own All-Star criteria), not his true talent level (which is what you'd have with the three year sample).

I'd also be curious to know how +/- compares the two. IIRC the two systems can diverge a little around 1B.

[koufax32]

Youkilis. For all the statistical reasons mentioned thus far. To pile on though, Teixeira's OPS+ is 147. Youkilis' is 160.

From the persective of who would help the AL win (since "this one counts")? Youkilis, by a complete landslide. An all-star game pits the best hitters against the best pitchers. Most "best pitchers" are power arms who have the ability to get themselves out of trouble with a strikeout at any given point of the game.

Youkilis vs. power pitchers
OPS = 1.248
OPS+ = 248

Teixeira vs. power pitchers
OPS = .871
OPS+ = 143

As others have posted, the question shouldn't be "which of these two should start?". It should be "does Teixeira deserve to even be there?"

EDIT: corrected number

This post has been edited by koufax32: 02 July 2009 - 02:55 PM

[mt8thsw9th]

As others have posted, the question shouldn't be "which of these two should start?". It should be "does Teixeira deserve to even be there?"

Of course he deserves to be there, he isn't having a poor season a la Jason Giambi in 2004. The question is "should Teixeira be there, potentially at the expense of Youkilis?" and the answer is a resounding "no".

[koufax32]

Of course he deserves to be there, he isn't having a poor season a la Jason Giambi in 2004. The question is "should Teixeira be there, potentially at the expense of Youkilis?" and the answer is a resounding "no".

Out of Youkilis, Morneau, and Cabrera who would Teixeira replace? I'm assuming three 1B on the roster.

FWIW I think Teixeira should be there. I just think that it would be absurd for anyone to say he was robbed if these three were named and he wasn't.

This post has been edited by koufax32: 02 July 2009 - 03:04 PM

[Frisbetarian]

In this case though, I think you can use the small sample size numbers. We're looking at what a player has done in this half season (depending on your own All-Star criteria), not his true talent level (which is what you'd have with the three year sample).

I'd also be curious to know how +/- compares the two. IIRC the two systems can diverge a little around 1B.

With defense, the sample size is quite small and the data used to calculate the assessments can be bad. This can cause partial season numbers to be quite skewed and means they do not necessarily reflect how the player has performed. I had this discussion with Mitchel Lichtman, UZR's creator, last summer, and he was quite clear that a larger sample size should always be used in lieu of a partial season.

A quick look through Inside the Book dot com's forums showed a recent conversation where Mitchel said:

I really hate when anyone takes a small sample within a large sample (like a player’s career or the last few years) and tried to make “sense” of it. There is absolutely no reason to be using 60 games of UZR for anything when you have 400 or 500 games. To say that someone is playing better or worse defense because the numbers are better or worse is not right. We don’t know that a player is playing bad defense because his UZR is minus. That is the whole point of using as much data as possible.

edit to add that I checked Teixeira's plus minus and Dewan, who we will be doing a chat with us next week, has him at +2 enhanced.