90 replies to this topic

[shepard50]

Not to hijack at all, but it seems to me that Buchholz's comments are just a symptom of the DiceK conundrum.

The Sox FO is between the rock of the posting fee and the risk of alienating the entire Land of the Rising Sun and DiceK's suckiness hard place.

I am starting this thread because I think it is worthwhile to talk about Daisuke Matsuzaka, but we only seem to be discussing him in this forum relative to trading Penny or as a blocker to Buchholz.

I like 5belongsto George's phrase; the Daisuke Conundrum.

He's been here three years. What do we have?

• He had outstanding results last year, though we all know that he lived on the brink (and took us with him) in getting there.
• He seems to still be injured from the WBC this year, his BABIP is through the roof (.444 in 2009 relative to .266 last year, he has become very hittable while his other peripherals are mostly in line with last year), and most likely we haven't seen him at full strength in 2009

So, what do you think his upside is? What's the best way to realize that?

[OCD SS]

I don't think this is much of a conundrum as far as his performance goes. There isn't much the Sox can do to force him to pitch better. Luckily the pitching staff is not like SS or 3B, and there are a decent number of spots to go around, even if he's not

What I think has been overstated in every other thread is DiceK's untradeableness. It seems to hinge on a stereotypical notion about Japanese honor, and that he won't accept a deal elsewhere because that would be seen as a failure. He has a NTC and Scott Boras is the man's agent; DiceK won't just go anywhere, but if the Sox had interest from someplace he might like to go (the Mets seem like an obvious choice to me) I think Boras would consider it a welcome opportunity to renegotiate his contract with a lot more leverage... Any deal would be exceedingly difficult, and the value coming back would be a lot less than people might think.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

I am starting this thread because I think it is worthwhile to talk about Daisuke Matsuzaka, but we only seem to be discussing him in this forum relative to trading Penny or as a blocker to Buchholz.

I like 5belongsto George's phrase; the Daisuke Conundrum.

He's been here three years. What do we have?

• He had outstanding results last year, though we all know that he lived on the brink (and took us with him) in getting there.
• He seems to still be injured from the WBC this year, his BABIP is through the roof (.444 in 2009 relative to .266 last year, he has become very hittable while his other peripherals are mostly in line with last year), and most likely we haven't seen him at full strength in 2009

So, what do you think his upside is? What's the best way to realize that?

I remember looking at his peripherals at one point around the middle of the season last year when he was starting to run up the gaudy W-L record, only to discover that they were virtually identical to the numbers he put up during his 15-12 first year with the club (I think they looked pretty much the same at the end of the year as well, with the increase in walks and decrease in HRs being the biggest changes).

He's got 400+ innings in the book now, and I think that's who he is: a pretty good number three guy, who you should count on to win more than he loses, but not much more. His inefficiency while working--which may actually be a key to the success he does have--has the potential to stress the bullpen anytime any of the other starters are scuffling, and limits his value to the team.

I have no idea what's going on with him this year. His K/9 and BB/9 look like DiceK, but the HR, BABIP and AVG are all way up, and it doesn't look like bad luck. I tend to think he's injured, but a part of me wonders if the rest of the league has just caught onto him and will wait for the mistake. I'll let the f/x junkies solve that one.

[mfried]

I remember looking at his peripherals at one point around the middle of the season last year when he was starting to run up the gaudy W-L record, only to discover that they were virtually identical to the numbers he put up during his 15-12 first year with the club (I think they looked pretty much the same at the end of the year as well, with the increase in walks and decrease in HRs being the biggest changes).

He's got 400+ innings in the book now, and I think that's who he is: a pretty good number three guy, who you should count on to win more than he loses, but not much more. His inefficiency while working--which may actually be a key to the success he does have--has the potential to stress the bullpen anytime any of the other starters are scuffling, and limits his value to the team.

I have no idea what's going on with him this year. His K/9 and BB/9 look like DiceK, but the HR, BABIP and AVG are all way up, and it doesn't look like bad luck. I tend to think he's injured, but a part of me wonders if the rest of the league has just caught onto him and will wait for the mistake. I'll let the f/x junkies solve that one.

I think Dice-K is caught between his favorite mode of pitching - high pitch counts, low OBA, pitching behind and in trouble - and what the Sox (Farrell, Francona) want from him. Last year he had his way, but this year he's trying to do what the authorities want and he's getting hit. Although it's agony to watch I hope they let him do things his way. He doesn't look injured to me - just trying to pitch to contact.

[shepard50]

I remember looking at his peripherals at one point around the middle of the season last year when he was starting to run up the gaudy W-L record, only to discover that they were virtually identical to the numbers he put up during his 15-12 first year with the club (I think they looked pretty much the same at the end of the year as well, with the increase in walks and decrease in HRs being the biggest changes). ...

I have no idea what's going on with him this year. His K/9 and BB/9 look like DiceK, but the HR, BABIP and AVG are all way up, and it doesn't look like bad luck. I tend to think he's injured, but a part of me wonders if the rest of the league has just caught onto him and will wait for the mistake. I'll let the f/x junkies solve that one.

Exactly. So we can see that he has become much more "hittable".

Matsuzaka 3-Year View

Year ▴	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2007	26	15	12	4.40	32	32	204.2	25	80	201	108	1.324	8.4	1.1	3.5	8.8	2.51
2008	27	18	3	2.90	29	29	167.2	12	94	154	159	1.324	6.9	0.6	5	8.3	1.64
2009	28	1	4	7.55	7	7	31	7	14	32	62	2.097	14.8	2	4.1	9.3	2.29
3 Seasons		34	19	4.02	68	68	403.1	44	188	387	117	1.383	8.3	1	4.2	8.6	2.06

I am looking for all kinds of stats that will give me insight into why this is. I checked days of rest, and there is no significant drop off in performance. His velocity is down a bit, but not massively.

His 2009 leverage splits go from bad (hi-leverage) to disastrous (low-leverage), but at roughly the same ratios as his career stats.

DM 2009 Leverage Splits

Split	G	PA	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
High Lvrge	7	25	1	8	8	0.304	0.333	0.478	0.812
Medium Lvrge	7	81	12	18	1.5	0.368	0.457	0.618	1.074
Low Lvrge	6	48	1	6	6	0.413	0.438	0.717	1.155

I can't believe that he has become plain mediocre for no reason. The variance between last year's numbers in terms of BABIP and AVG against are too wide:

DM three year Batting Against

Year	Age	AB	R	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
2007	26	776	100	25	80	201	.246	.326	.405	0.731	.301
2008	27	608	58	12	94	154	.211	.321	.324	0.645	.260
2009	28	137	26	7	14	32	.372	.431	.628	1.059	.444

[koufax32]

At the risk of sounding like Chicken Little I thik it bears mentioning that this season so far could be symptomatic of a downturn. I personally don't think this is the case. I just think it needs to be mentioned as a possibility.

When comparing his career with his MLB peers we need to keep in mind that it's a completely different paradigm. His developmental years were so vastly different than what any American pitching staff would subject someone to. His "arm age" is much higher than his actual age. It would be interesting to compare his career pitch totals to other ML starters. Since high school he's been treated like Sandy Koufax in how he's been handled. I hope his end isn't similar.

I'll try to dig up some of those pitch totals. If someone else knows where to go have at it.

EDIT/UPDATE: I've done a little bit of sifting. I haven't found any pitch totals out of japan, just IP and a statement that his first three years had him at 2500 PA. The first comp. that came to mind was Doc Gooden because of the age similarities. There are some parallels but not enough to delve any further. Of course, the biggest health issue in my mind would be how he (Dice-K) was hendled in HS. There's no way that I know of to find that information.
Really what this comes down to is that there is not presently a way to compare pitchers abuse in the USA to that in Japan. It's comparing apples to oranges. As far as innings go a good comp. to today's Japanese pitchers would be the early 80's in MLB. Other than that how to you quantify the difference between a 150 pitch performance every 7 days and a 110 pitch performance every 5? If one assumes them to be roughly equal in exertion needed then It's probably safe to use the 1980's comps of young pitchers. That's an assumption that I just don't think is safe to make. What we do know is that the track record (albeit very limited) of Japanese pitchers who come to MLB is one of what we would consider early flameouts. It would be neat for someone to be able to develop a PAP system for Japanese baseball to be able to explain better why this may be the case.
That said my above statement can only be taken then on the level of a throw-away line based upon a limited sample size of early flameout Japanese pitchers. I'm sure many have already done so! Carry on.

Edited by koufax32, 16 June 2009 - 11:25 AM.

[TomRicardo]

What Daisuke conundrum? He is having a bad start to this year? What about the Lester and Beckett conundrum?

Matsuzaka had a better start to his Red Sox career in his first two years than Beckett did. He has pitched 31 regrettable IP. If the Red Sox reacted like a lot of people suggest on this board this team would look like the Washington Nationals.

People need to let the posting fee go. The Red Sox probably saw that as an investment in order to become relevant in Japan (it worked) more than money towards Daisuke. The money certainly isn't in the budget or hindering the Red Sox at trying to throw money at players see Teixeira, Mark. They aren't worried about it affecting the luxury tax. It was nothing more than investment which already has brought some dividends with Okajima and Tazawa.

Daisuke does not get paid a lot. He is a good value for a number 3 pitcher. Thats what he is. A good number three pitcher with some upside.

What I am failing to see is how Daisuke's 7+ ERA through 30 some odd IPs is a lot worse than Beckett's or Lester's 6.51 through nearly 50 IP.

Edited by TomRicardo, 15 June 2009 - 09:55 PM.

[DieHardSoxFan1]

What Daisuke conundrum? He is having a bad start to this year? What about the Lester and Beckett conundrum?

Matsuzaka had a better start to his Red Sox career in his first two years than Beckett did. He has pitched 31 regrettable IP. If the Red Sox reacted like a lot of people suggest on this board this team would look like the Washington Nationals.

People need to let the posting fee go. The Red Sox probably saw that as an investment in order to become relevant in Japan (it worked) more than money towards Daisuke. The money certainly isn't in the budget or hindering the Red Sox at trying to throw money at players see Teixeira, Mark. They aren't worried about it affecting the luxury tax. It was nothing more than investment which already has brought some dividends with Okajima and Tazawa.

Daisuke does not get paid a lot. He is a good value for a number 3 pitcher. Thats what he is. A good number three pitcher with some upside.

What I am failing to see is how Daisuke's 7+ ERA through 30 some odd IPs is a lot worse than Beckett's or Lester's 6.51 through nearly 50 IP.

I agree with most everything, except for the part about Okajima, who was signed before Dice-K agreed to terms with the Red Sox. I think most of this discussion evolves from the Sox' considerable pitching depth. In 2006, while Beckett sported an ERA north of 5.00, he still remained one of our best starting pitchers, what with all the injuries (Clement, Wells and Wakefield) ineffectiveness and mind-boggling trades (Arroyo). But this season, amidst bouts of injury and extreme ineffectiveness, the case can be made that Dice-K is the 6th best starter in the organization. Not saying I agree with it, but the case can be made.

[Sprowl]

Any deal would be exceedingly difficult, and the value coming back would be a lot less than people might think.

Both of which are good reasons why the Red Sox wouldn't do such a deal, and probably wouldn't even broach it. DiceK would have to be a problem for such a deal to get anywhere up the deal-making priority list. He's not a problem -- he's just not effective, yet.

His inefficiency while working--which may actually be a key to the success he does have--has the potential to stress the bullpen anytime any of the other starters are scuffling, and limits his value to the team.

I have no idea what's going on with him this year. His K/9 and BB/9 look like DiceK, but the HR, BABIP and AVG are all way up, and it doesn't look like bad luck. I tend to think he's injured, but a part of me wonders if the rest of the league has just caught onto him and will wait for the mistake. I'll let the f/x junkies solve that one.

I agree that nibbling (= inefficiency) is a problem for the average staff, but given this year's bullpen arsenal, it's less of a problem for the Red Sox.

I don't think the pitchfx data can tell us much about the approach of the rest of the league. It can't really do much more than show that DiceK's velocity isn't back to normal and that his slurve, normally his best pitch, is less effective than last year. I do have some subjective impressions, though: I think his command of all his pitches has not yet come back since his spectacular performance against Cuba, and without better command, he can't nibble effectively because he is wild(er) in the strike zone than he was last year.

His stamina isn't back to normal after his DL stint, and when he tires, it shows first of all in loss of command -- leaving all his pitches up in the zone was the proximate cause of his downfall against the Phillies. His velocity is getting a little bit better, but he needs to sit at 93, not 91, if he wants to get away with the occasional mistake. His changeup gets hit too because it doesn't always work. He doesn't throw the changeup very often because he doesn't know whether it will dive or hang. He has taken to throwing the cutter more often when he needs a strike because it's the one pitch he has been placing pretty well.

He's still pitching like he's just out of spring training. I expect him to improve to a respectable third starter by mid-season, but like Papi's, his total season results will probably look mediocre.

[shepard50]

What Daisuke conundrum? He is having a bad start to this year? What about the Lester and Beckett conundrum?

I'd say the conundrum is that we have yet to see an upside to Daisuke as fully realized as we have seen with Lester and Beckett. 2009 notwithstanding, where both Lester and Beckett seem to have righted the ship, Matsuzaka is showing no signs of improvement. This alone probably wouldn't be a conundrum, except that we saw him struggle to go deep in games '08, and his performances based on his peripherals were less than indicative of the results he achieved.

Edit: Sprowl is beginning to describe what I am seeing, but am failing to precisely say.

Edited by shepard50, 15 June 2009 - 10:14 PM.

[Infield Infidel]

What I think has been overstated in every other thread is DiceK's untradeableness. It seems to hinge on a stereotypical notion about Japanese honor, and that he won't accept a deal elsewhere because that would be seen as a failure. He has a NTC and Scott Boras is the man's agent; DiceK won't just go anywhere, but if the Sox had interest from someplace he might like to go (the Mets seem like an obvious choice to me) I think Boras would consider it a welcome opportunity to renegotiate his contract with a lot more leverage... Any deal would be exceedingly difficult, and the value coming back would be a lot less than people might think.

I think his untradeableness hinges less on any kind of pejorative "honor", than on the team's credibility and sway in Japan and with Japanese free agents. There's no doubt having Dice-K helped in acquiring Tazawa and Okajima. Dice-K's was the deal the put the Sox on the map there (Tomo Ohka notwithstanding ). And he's the crown jewel of Sox marketing in Japan. They should be more worried than he is that trading him would be viewed as some kind of admission of failure, whether it is or isn't. He'll still be seen as a star there, while the Sox will be "The team that traded Dice-K". These notions could all be overblown.

I personally wouldn't want that to be a hindrance on any impetus for a trade, but it certainly has to be in the picture. If Dice-K doesn't want to go anywhere, that shouldn't stop the team from testing the waters.

Edited by Infield Infidel, 16 June 2009 - 12:01 AM.

[TomRicardo]

Another thing is that strike zones are much tighter this year than years before. ERAs have gone up around the board. It is going to take a little time for a nibbler like Daisuke to adjust.

[ngruz25]

Another thing is that strike zones are much tighter this year than years before. ERAs have gone up around the board. It is going to take a little time for a nibbler like Daisuke to adjust.

Is this true? Not doubting you, but how do you know this? The fact that ERA's have gone up doesn't necessarily mean the strike zone is shrinking, if that's what you're getting at.

Besides, if the strike zone really is smaller, Daisuke is really screwed, since he wasn't all that great at adjusting to the MLB strike zone before this year.

[5belongstoGeorge]

I see a conundrum... maybe we can quit using that word and just give a tip of the cap to Robert Ludlum... and acknowledge that the Red Sox may, may, have a better option than our esteemed pitcher that was dominant in the quarterfinal of the 1998 Summer Koshien, at least a better option right now for the short term.

It doesn't matter if he is getting squeezed by a "new" strike zone or if his more discerning statistical abstracts are the same as always. The fact is he is not getting it done, at least not yet this year. Maybe the Sox, because they are so deep in so many areas, can wait him out. Maybe or maybe not.

[TomRicardo]

Is this true? Not doubting you, but how do you know this? The fact that ERA's have gone up doesn't necessarily mean the strike zone is shrinking, if that's what you're getting at.

Besides, if the strike zone really is smaller, Daisuke is really screwed, since he wasn't all that great at adjusting to the MLB strike zone before this year.

The average pitch thrown for strike is down from around 57% to about 49% this year.

[OCD SS]

Both of which are good reasons why the Red Sox wouldn't do such a deal, and probably wouldn't even broach it. DiceK would have to be a problem for such a deal to get anywhere up the deal-making priority list. He's not a problem -- he's just not effective, yet.

I agree, and I certainly wouldn't expect the Sox (or advocate personally) trading him the way they would, say, Penny. I was just speaking on the meme that DiceK would use his NTC to block any and all deals, and the assumed reasons he would do so. I think the situation is much more complex than people give it credit for.

I think his untradeableness hinges less on any kind of pejorative "honor", than on the team's credibility and sway in Japan and with Japanese free agents. There's no doubt having Dice-K helped in acquiring Tazawa and Okajima. Dice-K's was the deal the put the Sox on the map there (Tomo Ohka notwithstanding ). And he's the crown jewel of Sox marketing in Japan. They should be more worried than he is that trading him would be viewed as some kind of admission of failure, whether it is or isn't. He'll still be seen as a star there, while the Sox will be "The team that traded Dice-K". These notions could all be overblown.

This brings up the other peculiar area of DiceK's value. I think we assume a lot of the above (and sometimes extend it to "the Sox are directly recouping the posting fee via marketing in Japan.") but I think it's a bit more problematic than that. Just thinking back to the rumor that was floated that the Sox turned down a potential DiceK for Reyes swap at least partly for the reasons listed above is a bit troubling. Should any on-field decision that should obstensibly be about wins and losses be tied into PR considerations? It gets a bit more complicated when you consider that Tazawa was talent added to the orginization because of these "extra baseball" considerations. Of course, you have to ask how far does it go? Is Lin untradeable because he is (probably) the face of the club's efforts in Tiawan/ China?

[TomRicardo]

Just thinking back to the rumor that was floated that the Sox turned down a potential DiceK for Reyes swap at least partly for the reasons listed above is a bit troubling.

Wait a minute, are you saying thinking was involved with a potential DiceK for Reyes trade rumor? Because I would say that any thought at all would lead to the logical conclusion that was complete and utter horse shit. Reyes is the cornerstone of the Mets "We are more Latino than the Yankees" marketing campaign.

Should any on-field decision that should obstensibly be about wins and losses be tied into PR considerations?

Yes. These teams are taking to make money. Winning helps make money and is the primary goal but there are times (see David Ortiz) where winning takes a backseat to PR. If Winning was everything the Florida Marlins should have been a much more popular team mid decade considering they won two WS in 7 years.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Exactly. So we can see that he has become much more "hittable".

I just don't see how you can draw that firm conclusion from the data. Qualitatively, it looks to me like he's struggling a bit. But the primary problem is an ultra high BABIP and an ultra high HR/FB and while both may be inflated somewhat by poor performance, both are also certainly partially a product of bad luck.

I also don't really see what the "conundrum" here might be. Even if Daisuke is not a #1 or #2 (which I think is true), he is a good pitcher on a very reasonable contact. What is the problem?

[OCD SS]

Wait a minute, are you saying thinking was involved with a potential DiceK for Reyes trade rumor? Because I would say that any thought at all would lead to the logical conclusion that was complete and utter horse shit. Reyes is the cornerstone of the Mets "We are more Latino than the Yankees" marketing campaign.

Then it's an appropriate example, even if the rumor didn't have much merit, as it had both teams making decisions based on PR instead of wins and losses.

Yes. These teams are taking to make money. Winning helps make money and is the primary goal but there are times (see David Ortiz) where winning takes a backseat to PR. If Winning was everything the Florida Marlins should have been a much more popular team mid decade considering they won two WS in 7 years.

Not really. The Marlins won, and then sold off everybody they could, negating any PR benefits they might've had. I think the number of baseball fans who want to root for Gordon Gekko when they go to a game is really small. I don't see the situation with Ortiz as an example of PR decisions as much as I see it as a comparison between long term and short term baseball decisions.

[smastroyin]

Not really. The Marlins won, and then sold off everybody they could, negating any PR benefits they might've had. I think the number of baseball fans who want to root for Gordon Gekko when they go to a game is really small. I don't see the situation with Ortiz as an example of PR decisions as much as I see it as a comparison between long term and short term baseball decisions.

Who cares? It's tangential argument. While we do not know what the Sox revenue stream from Japan actually is, we know that we can see Japanese ads whenever he pitches. We know that 5000 Japanese media members follow him around like the pied piper. If there is no revenue stream then so be it, but if there is you know the Sox aren't going to throw it away unless they think he is completely hopeless.

It does not have to do with PR which people view with a cynical lens (thanks dentist). It has to do with a direct marketing revenue stream.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

I just don't see how you can draw that firm conclusion from the data. Qualitatively, it looks to me like he's struggling a bit. But the primary problem is an ultra high BABIP and an ultra high HR/FB and while both may be inflated somewhat by poor performance, both are also certainly partially a product of bad luck.

I also don't really see what the "conundrum" here might be. Even if Daisuke is not a #1 or #2 (which I think is true), he is a good pitcher on a very reasonable contact. What is the problem?

Luck may be involved to some extent, but it's worth noting that his LD rate this morning is 29.2%, considerably higher than the 18% he posted in '07 and '08, and most of which reflects a decrease in ground balls. Hitters are making good contact against him.

[sachilles]

I personally don't think he's 100% healthy. He has even said he's not 100 percent, though I think that could be interpreted in more than one way.
Like Ortiz, Dice-k's pride has taken a hit. He was/is the poster boy of Japanese baseball. He is revered over there. He's always been the best, at least until he put on the RS uniform. He expects to win the Cy Young, expects to be on the all-star team. He expects to be the ACE. Unfortunately, he is not any of those things.
Like Ortiz, his failure to perform at the level he expects of himself, is a tough nut to swallow.
Dice-k is a nibbler. To do that well, you need pin point control, which he's struggled with this year.

I seem to remember Lester having similar issues. How'd they get him to evolve out of it?
How coachable is Dice-k? Is it possible that his translator isn't quite conveying the nuances of the coaching points?

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Luck may be involved to some extent, but it's worth noting that his LD rate this morning is 29.2%, considerably higher than the 18% he posted in '07 and '08, and most of which reflects a decrease in ground balls. Hitters are making good contact against him.

True, but LD% also reflects a combination of ability and chance, and in 31 IP the standard errors for this statistic will be very high too.

Just to reiterate, I don't think he's pitching that well. But I think its very hard to tell how much is subpar performance and how much is bad luck. I certainly don't think there is enough data to conclude that he is a bad pitcher now or that we should be looking to trade the guy.

[yecul]

It's easy to see why he has sucked. Lots and lots of hard hit balls.





It's not quite as easy to figure out what changed from last year to this and whether that's going to be different going forward.

Eliminating the injury concern would be a good first step. Is he tired or in pain? Would a scan reveal anything? Given his workload at a young age and how intense his ML experience has been (working out of jams, etc) it'd be surprising if he didn't hit arm trouble.

Assuming that he is healthy there's not much they can do. He's going to remain in the rotation for a while longer yet. He can't just be sent down or thrown into the pen.

Although it's basically the antithesis of his performance to date he could try to up his aggression. Having less stuff (presumably) is bad. Getting hitters into favorable counts so they can tee off on your lesser stuff is worse. Maybe I should just say crappy FB rather than lesser stuff, but you get the idea.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The average pitch thrown for strike is down from around 57% to about 49% this year.

Is this true? If so, it's a huge story. That's a massive shift from one year to the next.

The obvious problem with Dice-K is the lack of strikes. He got away with it last year because he kept the ball in the park and had some good karma with runners on. This year, he's probably not 100%, he's not getting lucky, HR rate which tends to bounce around is way up, and batters have more success against him the more they see him.

Ultimately, the inefficiency had to catch up with him. It's made him practically useless in the post-season and in games against good teams. As long as he has trouble throwing strikes; I question how much he can help. The Japanese revenues are part of the discussion, but really hard to discuss much since no one seems to have a clue how much revenue is brought in at all.

Hopefully he turns it around, because he's not all that helpful out of the pen and it seems like there's not much the Sox can do with him.

[paulftodd]

His Hr/9 has jumped from 0.6 to 2.0, and this is likely his biggest issue.

I can not imagine Dice-K refusing a trade to a west coast team, especially an NL team, but his trade value is low at this moment.

The average pitch thrown for strike is down from around 57% to about 49% this year.

For Dice-K it is up slighty (63% vs 61%). Also, his pitch/PA is down slightly from 4.05 to 3.99 (SSS) and his BB/9 has dropped from 5.0 to 4.1. So if it is a smaller strike zone, it is not showing up in Dice-K's numbers. Maybe because he has only made 7 starts and may have got lucky with umpires who have a bigger zone.

[Paradigm]

His LD% is astronomically high -- 29.2% which is a full 3.3% higher than the second highest number (25.9%, Cole Hamels) though Matsuzaka doesn't qualify for league leaders given his time off. This is a category that normally moves in tenths of a percent. This jump is out of control, and it starts to explain why his BABIP% is also so high: because hitters are putting good wood on the ball.

His GB% is down to 30.2%, and though it was never high, this would put him tied with Chris Young for dead last in the majors if he qualified. Difference: Chris Young plays in Petco, and in the NL West.

This isn't a case where a pitcher's ERA misleads us, like it did with Jon Lester early this season, when his strikeout rate was higher than ever in his career.

No, this all suggests that this guy isn't just getting unlucky, he's just getting battered.

[John DiFool]

What Daisuke conundrum? He is having a bad start to this year? What about the Lester and Beckett conundrum?

What I am failing to see is how Daisuke's 7+ ERA through 30 some odd IPs is a lot worse than Beckett's or Lester's 6.51 through nearly 50 IP.

Because almost all their indicators showed that they were much better pitchers than they had been demonstrating 6 weeks into the season. Even now, after tons of improvement in that direction by both, their true ERAs are .7-1.2 runs higher than their FIP ERAs (around 3.5 in both cases, which in the AL in a hitter's park is great).

Oh, I do expect Dice-K to regress back towards the average-his FIP is two runs better than actual-but it's still 5.41; even at their nadirs Jon & Josh projected much better than that (my memory is low 4's). We already know that last year he was constantly on the edge of the razor blade, in that sense. Combine some bad luck with a regression in ability, and that Zips/FIP projected ERA in the low 4's could easily be around/over 5 by the end of the season (which would mean he would have to go ~4.6 from here on out-about average, still not great, not as good as the other two guys). He may turn it on like Beck and Lester have, and get back down below 4.5 eventually, but unlike them I (fan hat) have much less confidence that he will.

[Rudy Pemberton]

No, this all suggests that this guy isn't just getting unlucky, he's just getting battered.

Yep, and it's not as if there's been a bad inning here and there, or one or two bad starts skewing the data. He's had 7 starts, and really none of them have been good. Been given big leads and completely unable to hold them. Very frustrating and I can't really think of anything positive about his starts, except that there's only been 7 of them and it's still a somewhat small sample.

[pokey_reese]

The Japanese revenues are part of the discussion, but really hard to discuss much since no one seems to have a clue how much revenue is brought in at all.

I don't recall who posted it, but a while ago someone linked to an article specifically debunking the idea that the Red Sox were directly earning revenue from Japan due to Matsuzaka, because all foreign revenue streams go to MLB and are then evenly distributed as part of the revenue sharing plan. So while the Matsuzaka signing does matter in terms of signing guys like Tazawa who know of the reputation the Sox have in Japan, it isn't a matter of dollars earned. That same article went on to say that the Red Sox couldn't even cash in on Japanese endorsements because current contracts don't allow the Sox to establish partnerships with companies that make a similar product, even in a different market (i.e., because Bud Light is the official beer of the Red Sox, they can't make a deal to have Sapporo be the official beer of the Sox in Japan).

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

His LD% is astronomically high -- 29.2% which is a full 3.3% higher than the second highest number (25.9%, Cole Hamels) though Matsuzaka doesn't qualify for league leaders given his time off. This is a category that normally moves in tenths of a percent. This jump is out of control, and it starts to explain why his BABIP% is also so high: because hitters are putting good wood on the ball.

His GB% is down to 30.2%, and though it was never high, this would put him tied with Chris Young for dead last in the majors if he qualified. Difference: Chris Young plays in Petco, and in the NL West.

This isn't a case where a pitcher's ERA misleads us, like it did with Jon Lester early this season, when his strikeout rate was higher than ever in his career.

No, this all suggests that this guy isn't just getting unlucky, he's just getting battered.

From my calculations, he has given up 112 balls in play this year. The standard errors on batted ball percentages in that size sample are really high. This is definitely not a category that moves in tenths of a percent with a sample like this. In fact, every event accounts for about .9%.

That's not to say that he isn't pitching somewhat worse than last year. But its very, very , very possible that he is pitching to something like a 22-23 LD% and has just gotten unlucky. There is no way from this data to conclude that Daisuke has been terrible. It is quite likely that he has been pitching somewhat worse than previous years, but that's about all you can say.

[OCD SS]

Who cares? It's tangential argument. While we do not know what the Sox revenue stream from Japan actually is, we know that we can see Japanese ads whenever he pitches. We know that 5000 Japanese media members follow him around like the pied piper. If there is no revenue stream then so be it, but if there is you know the Sox aren't going to throw it away unless they think he is completely hopeless.

It does not have to do with PR which people view with a cynical lens (thanks dentist). It has to do with a direct marketing revenue stream.

Exactly how much is that direct marketing revenue stream worth vs on field performance? This is a more than merely theoretical implication with DiceK, even if the aforementioned rumor did not have much basis in fact. The belief persists that he is making the Sox money and that they won't trade him as a result. The issue with PR of this sort isn't that it was tainted by the Dentist's heavy handedness, it's that it's working counter to baseball ops goal of winning games.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I see a conundrum... maybe we can quit using that word and just give a tip of the cap to Robert Ludlum... and acknowledge that the Red Sox may, may, have a better option than our esteemed pitcher that was dominant in the quarterfinal of the 1998 Summer Koshien, at least a better option right now for the short term.

This, like the original post, is freaking idiotic. The only problem for the Red Sox is that they have an abundence of good pitching. At the majors, they have five pitchers who well could be #3s or better for most major league clubs, plus they have another on his way, plus they have two of the top pitching prospects in baseball, one of whom may, may be a better option than everyone on the major league staff.

Beckett is not going anywhere. Lester is 99% not going anywhere. Wake is not going anywhere. The Red Sox would love to get rid of Penny but are hard time finding full value because of the prior truisms. Smoltz is apparently not going anywhere except to the starting rotation. Clay is not going anywhere.

Dice-K is not going anywhere - not because it's a conundrum or because of marketing or honor or anything except for the fact that it would be difficult to get full value for a 28-year old #3 who has top of the rotation potential.

This is not a Dice-K problem. It's a problem when a team has an abundance of good pitching, which I'd much rather have than the opposite.

[smastroyin]

Exactly how much is that direct marketing revenue stream worth vs on field performance? This is a more than merely theoretical implication with DiceK, even if the aforementioned rumor did not have much basis in fact. The belief persists that he is making the Sox money and that they won't trade him as a result. The issue with PR of this sort isn't that it was tainted by the Dentist's heavy handedness, it's that it's working counter to baseball ops goal of winning games.

But baseball ops and whatever marketing PR arm have the same aim - to help the Boston Red Sox make money.

Looking, winning is great and all but I think we can safely throw away the old conventional wisdom that major league teams are just whimsical investments by ultra-rich owners. They make a ton of money and the owners are going to get the best return they can.

You are also ignoring, completely, the idea that the baseball ops team has a lot more faith in Daisuke going forward than the members of this message board. I doubt that Theo is sitting there saying "Shit John I made a huge mistake with Daisuke, can't I get rid of him?" and John Henry is saying "fuck you dude my new wife likes sushi and we get invites to Morimoto's with Daisuke."

[Worst Trade Evah]

It's not just about balls in play though. That's one indicator -- some other indicators are k/bb ratio, bb/k ratio, p/ip numbers, etc. He's bad every which way, and at some point, small samples or no, it's a pretty convincing picture of crappy performance. That's very different than the cases of Beckett and Lester earlier, when -- even with small samples -- there were quality metrics painting quite a bit different picture of their performances. The small sample size disclaimer is a little bit over-used sometimes, and I think it is here, when the various dimensions of measurement are multiplied out. Matsuzaka has been terrible, and that's not a sample-size illusion (the way it mostly was with Lester and Beckett).

I can't stand watching him. Notably, his "waste" pitches tend to be so awful, they never have a chance at fooling the hitter. And then he has to come in the zone, etc.

Edited by Worst Trade Evah, 16 June 2009 - 03:11 PM.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

It's not just about balls in play though. That's one indicator -- some other indicators are k/bb ratio, bb/k ratio, p/ip numbers, etc. He's bad every which way, and at some point, small samples or no, it's a pretty convincing picture of crappy performance. That's quite a bit different than the cases of Beckett and Lester earlier, when -- even with small samples -- there were quality metrics painting quite a bit different picture of their performances. The small sample size disclaimer is a little bit over-used sometimes, and I think it is here, when the various dimensions of measurement are multiplied out. Matsuzaka has been terrible, and that's not a sample-size illusion (the way it mostly was with Lester and Beckett).

I don't think his KK and BB numbers (32 K, 13 non-intentional BB in 31 innings) have been bad at all. In a vaccum, those kinds of numbers are pretty damn good and definitely better than last year.

I agree that there are limitations to small sample size arguments, and I've never really been arguing that something isn't wrong. I'm just arguing (a) that you really can't say he has pitched terribly with this kind of sample size (ie, it is quite likely that he's pitched kind of crappy and then had some bad luck on top of that) and (b) that batted ball data does not eliminate luck/chance. People sometimes throw out batted ball data like it is a measure of ability with luck stripped out, and that is simply wrong.

I can't stand watching him. Notably, his "waste" pitches tend to be so awful, they never have a chance at fooling the hitter. And then he has to come in the zone, etc.

No argument here. I've always found him painful to watch, and this year has been nightmarish.

[Worst Trade Evah]

I don't think his KK and BB numbers (32 K, 13 non-intentional BB in 31 innings) have been bad at all. In a vaccum, those kinds of numbers are pretty damn good and definitely better than last year.

Good point, and definitely my bad there. I glanced at his line and completely missed that. So, reason for hope after all!

[5belongstoGeorge]

This, like the original post, is freaking idiotic. The only problem for the Red Sox is that they have an abundence of good pitching. At the majors, they have five pitchers who well could be #3s or better for most major league clubs, plus they have another on his way, plus they have two of the top pitching prospects in baseball, one of whom may, may be a better option than everyone on the major league staff.

Beckett is not going anywhere. Lester is 99% not going anywhere. Wake is not going anywhere. The Red Sox would love to get rid of Penny but are hard time finding full value because of the prior truisms. Smoltz is apparently not going anywhere except to the starting rotation. Clay is not going anywhere.

Dice-K is not going anywhere - not because it's a conundrum or because of marketing or honor or anything except for the fact that it would be difficult to get full value for a 28-year old #3 who has top of the rotation potential.

This is not a Dice-K problem. It's a problem when a team has an abundance of good pitching, which I'd much rather have than the opposite.

The problem isn't that they have an abundance of pitching, it is that a pitcher who has many strings attached is taking a starting slot from someone (several people?)that arguably could have more success. How the FO/Tito finesse that issue is what I am talking about.

And it is not about marketing or honor... I never thought such a thing, I think it is about money. NOt going anywhere? Of course not. That isn't the issue either. The issue is running an ineffective pitcher out there every 5th start.

Edited by 5belongstoGeorge, 16 June 2009 - 05:22 PM.

[TomRicardo]

Exactly how much is that direct marketing revenue stream worth vs on field performance? This is a more than merely theoretical implication with DiceK, even if the aforementioned rumor did not have much basis in fact. The belief persists that he is making the Sox money and that they won't trade him as a result. The issue with PR of this sort isn't that it was tainted by the Dentist's heavy handedness, it's that it's working counter to baseball ops goal of winning games.

They won't trade him because of his upside and 31 IP is not enough to devalue a guy whose first two seasons in Boston were better than Beckett's first 2 season. You seem to think this guy will be killing this team continuing on. He has had less failure than Buchholz last year and we saw how long they stuck with him.

I think there is a firm belief that he will turn his season around and look more like the Daisuke we saw the last two years. There is absolutely no reason besides irrational hatred of his pitching style or vendetta due to Pearl Harbor to think otherwise.

[Shelterdog]

And it is not about marketing or honor... I never thought such a thing, I think it is about money. NOt going anywhere? Of course not. That isn't the issue either. The issue is running an ineffective pitcher out there every 5th start.

The question is not whether he's been ineffective. Obviously he's sucked. The question is whether, going forward, he will continue to be ineffective. While Daiuske's nibbling isn't fun to watch, he was solid in 2007 and very, very good in 2008 (18-3, 2.90 era), so you've got to expect that if he is healthy he is going to be an effective pitcher (and certainly a top five pitcher for the sox) going forward.

[shepard50]

I don't recall who posted it, but a while ago someone linked to an article specifically debunking the idea that the Red Sox were directly earning revenue from Japan due to Matsuzaka, because all foreign revenue streams go to MLB and are then evenly distributed as part of the revenue sharing plan. So while the Matsuzaka signing does matter in terms of signing guys like Tazawa who know of the reputation the Sox have in Japan, it isn't a matter of dollars earned. That same article went on to say that the Red Sox couldn't even cash in on Japanese endorsements because current contracts don't allow the Sox to establish partnerships with companies that make a similar product, even in a different market (i.e., because Bud Light is the official beer of the Red Sox, they can't make a deal to have Sapporo be the official beer of the Sox in Japan).

I am pretty sure this is the article you refer to: Matsuzaka won't be a cash cow, by Rob Bradford

[Flynn4ever]

I made this point in the random crap thread, and some lambasted me, others gave it serious thought. My idea was simply, a spin through the bullpen. I know that Daisuke would probably not be that effective in the bullpen, but he isn't very effective in the rotation either. He could create a space for a guy who is pitching better right now (Buchholz or Smoltz {before you get on me, I know we don't know how Smoltz will pitch in the majors, but it is all a part of the plan.}) The most important thing about it is, it sends the message that "we know how hard you worked for team Japan in the WBC, great, now you aren't showing us what we need from you. You are fatter than you were before we put you on the DL, and you still nibble when you can and should be overpowering hitters. Take a break here in the bullpen, a place you haven't been in over ten years and consider your priorities."

I saw Bob Ryan's article last week speculating that Daisuke wants to pitch away from contact, wants to nibble and get into and then out of jams. If Theo, Tito and Farrell are all OK with that, I will just shut up. Does anyone really think they are all OK with that?

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I saw Bob Ryan's article last week speculating that Daisuke wants to pitch away from contact, wants to nibble and get into and then out of jams. If Theo, Tito and Farrell are all OK with that, I will just shut up. Does anyone really think they are all OK with that?

They seemed to be pretty goddamn OK with that approach last year, given the 18-3 record in spite of the walks and jams and nibbling.

I don't think the solution for a pitcher struggling to find his feel and approach is to put him in the pen, where work will be brief and irregular.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

I made this point in the random crap thread, and some lambasted me, others gave it serious thought. My idea was simply, a spin through the bullpen. I know that Daisuke would probably not be that effective in the bullpen, but he isn't very effective in the rotation either. He could create a space for a guy who is pitching better right now (Buchholz or Smoltz {before you get on me, I know we don't know how Smoltz will pitch in the majors, but it is all a part of the plan.}) The most important thing about it is, it sends the message that "we know how hard you worked for team Japan in the WBC, great, now you aren't showing us what we need from you. You are fatter than you were before we put you on the DL, and you still nibble when you can and should be overpowering hitters. Take a break here in the bullpen, a place you haven't been in over ten years and consider your priorities."

I saw Bob Ryan's article last week speculating that Daisuke wants to pitch away from contact, wants to nibble and get into and then out of jams. If Theo, Tito and Farrell are all OK with that, I will just shut up. Does anyone really think they are all OK with that?

This is a terrific idea if the point is to show him who's boss, and it won't cost the team anything more than a disrupted bullpen rotation, maximal juggling of the roster (if you put Buchholz in his slot), and minimizing the likelihood that DiceK recovers his stamina and command.

Tito, Theo and Farrell may not like watching him work anymore than we do, but I bet they'd be delighted to see him nibbling and getting out of jams again. The goal is to get DiceK to that point again, not to punish him for going to the WBC. How does sending him to the bullpen get that done?

[koufax32]

Dice K "can't be in this situation"

I'm sure any details that explain what the heck he means have been lost in translation. It seems like he's taking the "I am letting my team down" approach.

Edited by koufax32, 17 June 2009 - 12:30 PM.

[TallManinOregon]

"I have to bring my [stuff] back as quickly as I can. I really want to pitch for the team to win, with focusing on my details [of pitching]."

This sentance reads almost as badly as I feel when Dice-K gets all nibble-nibblie...

As someone that has umpired a fair amount of baseball (high school), pitchers that nibble tend to drive me nuts because every pitch can become an either/or call. Umps set their zone (okay, the corners of the zone... the zone is the zone, I know) early in the game and do their level-headed best to keep it locked in and consistent throughout the game, but Nibblers dabbling all over the corners make that tougher than it needs to be, because 90-mph fastballs a half-inch apart do look different... I think the point is, that Dice-K nibbles to the point that the ump tends to shrink the zone a little on him and so those corners he tries to nibble on become more narrow and more narrow.

I know I have thought this before watching him pitch (esp. if he's opposing a straight FB pitcher); and I know that MLB umps are far better than I am. But just from experience, if a pitcher throws strikes early and often, the corners can be a little more forgiving. If the pitcher is throwing everything around the strike zone, it becomes harder to define the difference between a strike and a ball... and when that's the case, I think umps tend to call more balls around the edges of the zone.

And I still have no idea what his quote means...

[Andrew]

Dice K "can't be in this situation"

I'm sure any details that explain what the heck he means have been lost in translation. It seems like he's taking the "I am letting my team down" approach.

Francona suggested Matsuzaka's track record during his first two seasons with the Sox should earn him the benefit of the doubt.

"I mean, we're talking about a pitcher who over the last two years has one, what, 33 regular-season games, three postseason games," Matsuzaka said. "That's 36 games. I don't care how you do it, that's a lot of games. We can't just put guys on a shelf when they run through tough times. I think a better way to go is to help fix 'em. We've got this guy signed for a long time. We want him to help us win games."

The manager also reiterated that Matsuzaka's status is not affected by neither Smoltz's arrival nor the six-man rotation.

This article really needed an editor...

[koufax32]

This article really needed an editor...

Isn't Guano in town for this series? I'm sure he can do a great job of translating for us.

[yecul]

1. He does not make his next start. Smoltz's return allows you to outright skip him giving everyone normal rest rather than the extra day. 2. Get his arm checked out. 3. Put him on the DL because he HAS to be hurt.

If he's not hurt, then that's really not good for Boston because he can't be sent down (contract) and will be an empty roster spot until he can get things together.

[NDame616]

1. He does not make his next start. Smoltz's return allows you to outright skip him giving everyone normal rest rather than the extra day. 2. Get his arm checked out. 3. Put him on the DL because he HAS to be hurt.

If he's not hurt, then that's really not good for Boston because he can't be sent down (contract) and will be an empty roster spot until he can get things together.

If the Tigers can hide Dontrelle Willis twice with an anxiety disorder (despite saying "I've talked to everybody and I don't feel like I have any nervousness out there," Willis said. "I've got so many moving parts that if one's out of whack from time to time it happens.") there has to be a place on the DL for Dice K.

And, correct me if I'm wrong, but saying "he can't be sent to the minors" isn't 100% correct I'm assuming. I would guess he CAN if he accepts the assignment. Maybe Theo and convince him and Boras about the long term benefits of going to AAA to correct whatever is wrong, come back in a month and go from there....