[Sprowl]

Many great at-bats appear in retrospect as the key turning points in their games. They feature great stuff and location against batters who can protect the plate. Most great at-bats are long: a first-pitch home run or three unhittable sliders for strikes may be great moments, but they are not great confrontations between pitcher and batter. Lengthy duels featuring a pitcher with stuff good enough to challenge the batter, but not enough – for a long time, at least – to put him away. They usually have multiple foul balls and rising pitch counts, and they turn into a battle of the wills. Sooner or later you’re bound to hear an announcer opine that the hitter or pitcher gave in.

Sometimes the pitcher finally wins, but loses command to subsequent batters. Sometimes, but more rarely, the pitcher survives the duel and thrives thereafter. Some of my favorite at-bats are Pedroia duels that wear a pitcher down and end up with Pedroia getting on base anyway. Pedroia is the toughest of outs for the pitcher because he’s got (forgive me, Aladdin)

Great awesome powers of hand-eye co-ordination,
Itty-bitty little strike zone.

Diminutive stature notwithstanding, Pedroia doesn’t count too much on his own strike zone judgment, especially with an unreliable umpire calling balls and strikes. Against Sabathia and the Yankees, the 8th inning 10-pitch confrontation was the key point in the game. It pushed Sabathia to his pitch count limit before Rivera could relieve him directly. Instead, the Red Sox got into the soft underbelly of the Yankee bullpen (yeah I know, it’s a gross image).

Pedroia didn’t just swing at strikes – he swang at anything he could see. He didn’t take a gamble on ball 4 until the pitch was a changeup at eye level. He was protecting the strike zone against Sabathia and against the umpire. Jnai added a numbering feature to his pitchfx charting tool that helps visualize the confrontation. Under 'Matchup selector, you can choose an individual matchup instead of the pitcher's performance against all batters. This chart is the Pedroia-Sabathia confrontation, showing pitch location and type in sequence:



The sequence of pitches:
1 Fastball (called strike)
2 Changeup (high, for a ball)
3 Fastball (outside, for a ball)
4 Fastball (foul)
5 Fastball (foul)
6 Slider (foul)
7 Fastball (foul)
8 Fastball (foul)
9 Fastball (high, for a ball)
10 Changeup, very high and outside, for ball 4.

What great at-bats have you seen lately? What made it great? If you list the matchup, date, and inning, maybe some other enterprising souls can track down the pitchfx data and see how the great matchups look on the chart.


Edit: added missing pitch 8 (thanks for the catch, Harry Hooper).

This post has been edited by Sprowl: 13 June 2009 - 10:46 AM

[LoweTek]

What great at-bats have you seen lately? What made it great? If you list the matchup, date, and inning, maybe some other enterprising souls can track down the pitchfx data and see how the great matchups look on the chart.

Not lately but I recall a key Coco at-bat either very late last season or during the playoffs which was something like 15 pitches and was a turning point in the game. It was so good I used it as a teaching opportunity for the team I coach. If someone else can recall the date/game it would be interesting to see this same chart on that AB.

[MoGator71]

There was another Pedroia one, just as he was turning it around in '07, at Texas...pretty sure it was Gagne.

[drbretto]

It was Gagne. I think 12 pitches, ended with a home run. His first run of the season and I think it broke him. It's the precise point where Gagne started to suck.

[RingoOSU]

I remember in 2004, Casey Kotchman's rookie season he had this brilliant at bat vs Pedro

# Ball
# Ball
# Ball
# Foul
# Foul
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Strike Swinging (Runner Going)

Pedro had a 7-4 lead, and got the third out in the third, but it cost him 15 pitches.Pedro was out of the game in the 6th.
I won't say it was cause of that at bat though, he ended up giving up 7 runs.

[Over Guapo Grande]

Not lately but I recall a key Coco at-bat either very late last season or during the playoffs which was something like 15 pitches and was a turning point in the game. It was so good I used it as a teaching opportunity for the team I coach. If someone else can recall the date/game it would be interesting to see this same chart on that AB.

10/16/2008. Game 5 of the ALCS against Wheeler. A 10 pitch at bat that led to a single to RF to tie the score 7-7 in the bottom of the 8th.

[LoweTek]

10/16/2008. Game 5 of the ALCS against Wheeler. A 10 pitch at bat that led to a single to RF to tie the score 7-7 in the bottom of the 8th.

Thank you, yes. First video in the second row.

[Sprowl]

Not lately but I recall a key Coco at-bat either very late last season or during the playoffs which was something like 15 pitches and was a turning point in the game. It was so good I used it as a teaching opportunity for the team I coach. If someone else can recall the date/game it would be interesting to see this same chart on that AB.

10/16/2008. Game 5 of the ALCS against Wheeler. A 10 pitch at bat that led to a single to RF to tie the score 7-7 in the bottom of the 8th.

Good call. Coco's at-bat was an epic moment in an epic game. On pitches 6, 7, 8 and 9, Wheeler tried to climb the ladder with successively higher pitches, and Coco fought each of them off. Pitch 10 was a very good pitch to hit -- Wheeler lost command at the end of the at-bat, or perhaps he gave in. The chart's a little bit different because of pitch type: Wheeler appeared to be throwing all fastballs 89-91, or at least that's how pitchfx lumped them together. He just didn't have the velocity or the movement to make a fastball hitter like Coco swing and miss.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

This is really interesting. I can't remember any at bats specifically, but can offer a suggestion. Somebody who is a subscriber to baseball reference's play index might call up all Red Sox ABs in the past two years, sort the data by number of pitches, and select from the top group based on whatever criteria seem interesting (player, game situation, etc).

[Sprowl]

It was Gagne. I think 12 pitches, ended with a home run. His first run of the season and I think it broke him. It's the precise point where Gagne started to suck.

It turns out that pitchfx does have data for this early 2007 at-bat, and it was an amazing duel. Pedroia never got to a full count: he hit his home run on the 12th pitch and a 2-2 count. As before, the pitcher could not make the hitter miss, even with an extended sequence of tough pitches low or outside. Gagne tried everything, but nothing got by Pedroia.



Gagne's approach with Pedroia was quite different than Sabathia or Wheeler trying to get the hitter to chase high fastballs. He mixed his pitches up (6 fastballs, 4 changeups, 1 curve, and 1 slider or cutter; sequence = fb, curve, fb, change, change, fb, fb, change, slider, change, fb, fb). It looks like pitchfx got the pitch classifications right for Gagne, so this is a chart where it makes sense to use the pitch classifications as well. Gagne also mixes up location, alternating between fastballs for strikes at the knees or close to the outside edge and the changeup off the plate outside, and mixes in a slider and a curve -- Pedroia fouled those off too.



Back in the summer of 2007, the sandbox game threads came to know Gagne as Gollum, for his streak of unsettling appearances and their cumulative damage (and for his role in Rangerrob's Tolkien retelling of the Red Sox season). It is somehow fitting that his long decline was initiated by the Red Sox' most conspicuous hobbit. Gagne did get his Ring, in spite of his best efforts.

[ToeKneeArmAss]

It's hard to beat Alex Cora's 18-pitch effort that ended with a HR - for the Dodgers on May 12, 2004, in the 7th, against not-yet-old-friend Matt Clement:

Pitch 1: Ball
Pitch 2: Called Strike
Pitch 3: Ball
Pitch 4: Foul
Pitch 5: Foul
Pitch 6: Foul
Pitch 7: Foul
Pitch 8: Foul
Pitch 9: Foul
Pitch 10: Foul
Pitch 11: Foul
Pitch 12: Foul
Pitch 13: Foul
Pitch 14: Foul
Pitch 15: Foul
Pitch 16: Foul
Pitch 17: Foul
Pitch 18: Home run to right field.

Link to story in mlb.com archives

[brewdawg819]

Interesting article relating to length of AB to OPS concerning the Astros, here.

Excerpt:

In order to provide context, Bill James provides the following stats for 2007 major league hitters, by length of at bat:

1 and done: .344/.349/.543 .892 OPS
Short(1-3): .301/.317/.467 .784 OPS
Long (4+): .223/.352/.348 .700 OPS
7 Up (7+): .230/.406/.372 .778 OPS

For some reason, expected the longer the at bat, the more likelihood of the pitcher making a mistake and therefore better results for the hitter. But from the compiled stats above, the longer the AB, the less OPS, Slugging, and AVG, but a better OBP.

[HonestIago6]

Interesting article relating to length of AB to OPS concerning the Astros, here.

Excerpt:



For some reason, expected the longer the at bat, the more likelihood of the pitcher making a mistake and therefore better results for the hitter. But from the compiled stats above, the longer the AB, the less OPS, Slugging, and AVG, but a better OBP.

Well, you can't walk on 3 pitches. Thats got to be why OPS is down, OBP is only going to be BA + HBP for 1, 1-3 pitches. Longer at bats tend to have more balls, more walks, higher OBP. When SLG is down on 4+ pitch AB's, well, you're gonna have more 3-1 take a pitch situations, etc.

[Kevin Youkulele]

Interesting article relating to length of AB to OPS concerning the Astros, here.

Excerpt:



For some reason, expected the longer the at bat, the more likelihood of the pitcher making a mistake and therefore better results for the hitter. But from the compiled stats above, the longer the AB, the less OPS, Slugging, and AVG, but a better OBP.

The Bill James table is interesting but the way the results are presented obscures something that I find completely surprising. The 4+ results include the 7+ results, but the 7+ results being much better than the 4+ results means that the 4-6 pitch at bats are even worse than the 4+ numbers. Why would this be? Is it that the vast majority of strikeouts (i.e., that include a total of 1 to 3 balls and/or 2-strike fouls) are here? Without forethought, it is surprising that this is not offset to a greater degree by all the at bats ending in contact on pitch 4 or 5 with a 3-0 and 3-1 count. That batting average is awful!

I'd think there is enough sample to be able to meaningfully break the results down into single-pitch bins, up to at least 7 or so, and perhaps even number of fouls, non-foul strikes, and balls. I'd love to see that. It would also be good to have frequency information. Of course, I like looking at big tables of data...

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

This thread got me wondering about the record for the longest at-bat. Consensus seems to be that it was likely Roy Thomas, who suposedly fouled off 22 pitches in one at-bat. I guess the total number of pitches in that at-bat wasn't tracked, but it had to be at least 23 and possibly as many as 28.

http://en.allexperts.com/q/Baseball-Trivia...baseball-13.htm

Gee, I wonder who baseball expert Geoff is?

This post has been edited by Bucknahs Bum Ankle: 19 June 2009 - 11:37 AM

[Sprowl]

When a pitcher is going well, sometimes the best thing that the batters can do is wear him down: protect the plate, spoil good pitches, and wait for a pitch that can be hit. Javier Vazquez pitched very well against the Red Sox on June 27, but the Red Sox gradually wore him down. It wasn't easy: Vazquez had his breaking pitches well located and biting hard (his slider, curve, and changeup each got 4 swinging strikes; the fastballs only 2). There were lots of battles in this game. Pedroia and Drew in the first inning stayed alive for 6 and 8 pitches, before singling and striking out, respectively. The lower part of the lineup didn't fare so well, but the Red Sox kept fighting off Vazquez's pitches all day long.

Youkilis's 11-pitch at-bat with 2 out in the 8th inning finally drove Vazquez from the game. Vazquez stays on the edge of the strike zone, with most pitches on the outside edge except for one changeup low and inside. Youks protected the plate by swinging at just about everything: not pitch 1, a slow curve just below the knees, not pitch 2, a fastball outside at the letters, and not pitch 5, a slider low and way outside, but everything else; but he got the bat on the other 8 pitches. Vazquez mixed up his pitches, throwing 3 curves, a slider, and a changeup, as well as 6 fastballs on the outside edge above the waste. The last 3 pitches were all fastballs up and away, and by pitch 11 Youkilis had Vazquez measured for a triple down the line and off the right-field wall.

[Sprowl]

Pedroia has been at it again. On Friday night in Toronto, Little Ricky Romero was pitching well through 4 innings: 8 strikeouts on 69 pitches. Pedroia's at-bat with one out in the 5th inning put him over the edge: 12 pitches, culminating in a walk. Youkilis walked on 5 pitches, and then Ortiz doubled on the 6th pitch of his at-bat, sending Romero to the showers. Three batters, 23 pitches, 2 runs and 0 outs later, it was clear that Pedroia's persistent grinding was the turning point:



ball 1 outside - called strike 1 - foul ball strike 2 - ball 2 low and outside... then five foul balls on pitches both in the strike zone and inside to Pedroia - ball 3 low - another foul ball - and finally ball 4, just barely low on pitch 12.

[MarkInLondon]

I remember in 2004, Casey Kotchman's rookie season he had this brilliant at bat vs Pedro

# Ball
# Ball
# Ball
# Foul
# Foul
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Foul (Runner Going)
# Strike Swinging (Runner Going)

Pedro had a 7-4 lead, and got the third out in the third, but it cost him 15 pitches.Pedro was out of the game in the 6th.
I won't say it was cause of that at bat though, he ended up giving up 7 runs.

Presumbly the 'runner' was benched before the start of the fourth innings!

Long at bats towards the end of a close game are when baseball really comes into it's own - even watching on TV you can feel the tension ratcheting up like someone is blowing up a balloon.