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#1 Worst Trade Evah


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Posted 11 June 2009 - 05:13 PM

I'm interested in what the prospect watchers here think about what happened in the draft. I know there's some commentary stuff embedded in the draft threads, but I'd appreciate it if people who follow this wouldn't mind sharing their observations or take on the draft. Both big picture and detail stuff appreciated.

#2 threecy

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Posted 12 June 2009 - 06:20 AM

QUOTE (Worst Trade Evah @ Jun 11 2009, 06:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm interested in what the prospect watchers here think about what happened in the draft. I know there's some commentary stuff embedded in the draft threads, but I'd appreciate it if people who follow this wouldn't mind sharing their observations or take on the draft. Both big picture and detail stuff appreciated.


Looking at the draft tracker on Boston.com, I was very unhappy with their 5th round selection - what were they thinking?!? Heck, what was the University of Illinois thinking in scouting an 81 year old rookie?

QUOTE
Schwindenhammer, 81, has signed a letter of intent to play baseball at the University of Illinois next season

Edited by threecy, 12 June 2009 - 06:21 AM.


#3 smastroyin


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Posted 12 June 2009 - 07:20 AM

Setting aside the "best player available" stuff for a moment, I am once again a bit disappointed. We can't really judge until the signings are all made, but I'm a little sic of this FO's fascination with 80's St. Louis Cardinal type players. Too many speedy no power OFers and not enough bats. I know the theory that Theo talks about, you can always move guys to the corners. But the problem is that when they don't have the bats to play the corners you are stuck with a bunch of copies of the same player. Again, I understand "don't draft for need" but how many fast LHH CFer's does on organization need? To me "not drafting for need" means not stretching to take a catcher (e.g.) when there is a better guy still on the board, but when all you draft are the same types over and over again I don't think there is any big suprise that this development team has not developed a decent power bat, unless you give them credit for Youks power surge (perhaps they deserve it).

But, this offense continues to get older and will not remain a top offense unless they can fill the corners. The more I look at the way this organization develops talent, the more I fall into line with the thinking that they should have just completely overpaid Teixeira, even though in the abstract I wouldn't think that is a good idea.

#4 Paul M


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Posted 12 June 2009 - 08:47 AM

Shouldn't the fact they've been superior when it comes to developing pitchers mean they can use that currency to get hitters? Moreover, this lets them avoid the trap that is buying pitching on the open market and translate the surplus into more bats? This draft really didn't have any bats that I regret them passing up in the first two rounds, but it would be nice to get a legit power bat in the OF. Still, I expect this offense will be infused with more youth through trades at some point.

#5 Shelterdog


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Posted 12 June 2009 - 04:02 PM

QUOTE (smastroyin @ Jun 12 2009, 08:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Setting aside the "best player available" stuff for a moment, I am once again a bit disappointed. We can't really judge until the signings are all made, but I'm a little sic of this FO's fascination with 80's St. Louis Cardinal type players. Too many speedy no power OFers and not enough bats. I know the theory that Theo talks about, you can always move guys to the corners. But the problem is that when they don't have the bats to play the corners you are stuck with a bunch of copies of the same player. Again, I understand "don't draft for need" but how many fast LHH CFer's does on organization need? To me "not drafting for need" means not stretching to take a catcher (e.g.) when there is a better guy still on the board, but when all you draft are the same types over and over again I don't think there is any big suprise that this development team has not developed a decent power bat, unless you give them credit for Youks power surge (perhaps they deserve it).

But, this offense continues to get older and will not remain a top offense unless they can fill the corners. The more I look at the way this organization develops talent, the more I fall into line with the thinking that they should have just completely overpaid Teixeira, even though in the abstract I wouldn't think that is a good idea.


I don't think this is fair. It's incredibly hard to get a bat that can fill the corners without a very high pick. Every now and then a guy like Jay Bay get picked up in the 22nd round and turns into a stud but an awful lot of the power bats come off the boards way before where the Sox have been able to pick. I'm looking at the league leaders in home runs both this and last year and an awful lot of them (A. Rod, Mauer, Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Hamilton, Upton, Teixeira, Braun, Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, Longoria) were picked in the top ten or so spots in the draft. Most of the rest were picked between 20 and 50 (Hunter, Ludwick, Giambi, Dunn, Wright, Quentin, Cust). Very, very few true power bats get drafted after the first or second round (Howard, Pujols and Bay come to mind). So if you're the Sox and you're not picking until the 25th pick or so year after year, you just won't have that many chances to get a legitimate power hitting prospect.



#6 cutman1000

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Posted 12 June 2009 - 04:26 PM

I think that the Red Sox have realized that speedy, good defensive players up the middle are the easiest position players to develop. I fully believe that they keep drafting these players as a type of currencyŚdraft the ones that are easy to develop and perhaps get overhyped, then trade them for something else. Think about it...the Sox almost got Johan Santana with a package of these guys (Ellsbury, Kalish being main pieces).

#7 JakeRae


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Posted 14 June 2009 - 04:42 PM

QUOTE (smastroyin @ Jun 12 2009, 06:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Setting aside the "best player available" stuff for a moment, I am once again a bit disappointed. We can't really judge until the signings are all made, but I'm a little sic of this FO's fascination with 80's St. Louis Cardinal type players. Too many speedy no power OFers and not enough bats. I know the theory that Theo talks about, you can always move guys to the corners. But the problem is that when they don't have the bats to play the corners you are stuck with a bunch of copies of the same player. Again, I understand "don't draft for need" but how many fast LHH CFer's does on organization need? To me "not drafting for need" means not stretching to take a catcher (e.g.) when there is a better guy still on the board, but when all you draft are the same types over and over again I don't think there is any big suprise that this development team has not developed a decent power bat, unless you give them credit for Youks power surge (perhaps they deserve it).

But, this offense continues to get older and will not remain a top offense unless they can fill the corners. The more I look at the way this organization develops talent, the more I fall into line with the thinking that they should have just completely overpaid Teixeira, even though in the abstract I wouldn't think that is a good idea.

So, you don't think Lars and Reddick count as guys who could fill out the corners over the next couple years? Lars has struggled to start the season in AA, but is just 21 and is starting to come back to form and is a top 25 type prospect right now as a 1bman. Reddick is slugging .586 in AA so far this year as a 22 year old.

As Shelterdog pointed out, it is incredibly hard to draft for power unless you sit at the top of the first round. The simple truth is, their are a lot more toolsy hs outfielders who lack power than there are legit power bats in the draft. The fact that the team drafts the former heavily does not mean that they are ignoring opportunities to pick up the latter. Schwindenhammer, Jacobs, and Head are all examples of guys who are well-regarded draft picks this year who either have of project as having plus power.

Since the shift to focusing on tools and upside amongst drafted position players 3 years ago, we haven't seen results at the ML level from the draft, but we shouldn't. HS players are going to take about 4-6 years to be in the picture for a 25-man roster slot. We all need to be patient for a few more years and just enjoy the successes of our draftees in the minors while they develop. Power hitters do not grow on trees.

#8 Joshv02

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Posted 14 June 2009 - 06:02 PM

QUOTE (smastroyin @ Jun 12 2009, 08:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Setting aside the "best player available" stuff for a moment, I am once again a bit disappointed. We can't really judge until the signings are all made, but I'm a little sic of this FO's fascination with 80's St. Louis Cardinal type players. Too many speedy no power OFers and not enough bats. I know the theory that Theo talks about, you can always move guys to the corners. But the problem is that when they don't have the bats to play the corners you are stuck with a bunch of copies of the same player.

That doesn't explain their picks in rounds 3, 5, 8 or 10. And that's just the first 10 rounds. I think you didn't really look after pick #1 and if that is the full analysis, you can't put aside the "who is the best player" question.

Last year, their picks in rounds 5, 6, 7 and 9 were non-CF position players, too. Picks in rounds 5 and 6 in particular were drafted for their power potential.

#9 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 10 February 2010 - 03:28 AM

QUOTE (smastroyin @ Jun 12 2009, 07:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
We can't really judge until the signings are all made, but I'm a little sick of this FO's fascination with 80's St. Louis Cardinal type players. Too many speedy no power OFers and not enough bats. I know the theory that Theo talks about, you can always move guys to the corners. But the problem is that when they don't have the bats to play the corners you are stuck with a bunch of copies of the same player. Again, I understand "don't draft for need" but how many fast LHH CFer's does on organization need? To me "not drafting for need" means not stretching to take a catcher (e.g.) when there is a better guy still on the board, but when all you draft are the same types over and over again I don't think there is any big suprise that this development team has not developed a decent power bat, unless you give them credit for Youks power surge (perhaps they deserve it).


Sorry for bumping up a seven-month old discussion, but I just came across this and was actually just having this same talk today and it's a great discussion point. I was and kind of still am on the same boat as you, smas, but I do think speedy lead-off/defensive guys are going to continue to be taken (especially with the huge supply of them in the '10 draft) by the current draft team and maybe even other teams. The way the post-PED game is changing, these type of guys are going to start becoming a more valuable commodity. We're seeing it at the major league level as well and its' construction of defense being the new market efficiency. So if I were to bet, the reason we're seeing guys like Fuentes, and Hazelbaker, and even Wilkerson being drafted is because perhaps in the next three or four years, these guys are going to be what is sought after via trade and free agency. They're much, much easier to project and scout than power bats. I don't know that I'd say the team is done drafting those type of players, but after seeing the Jason Place's and Will Middlebrook's not live up to their hype (and I'm not saying they're cooked), but I think they are shying away from that strategy simply because it rarely pans out. You won't hear of the big names being taken by us in the first few rounds, but they did take some big power potential guys in Brandon Jacobs and Miles Head later on in the draft. Or, they could very well just be re-allocating those funds to the international level, seeing as the system has guys like Michael Almanzar, Oscar Tejeda, and Jose Vinicio recently. Almanzar is probably the only one there with the biggest raw power, but it's just food for thought.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 10 February 2010 - 03:34 AM.


#10 OCD SS


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Posted 10 February 2010 - 08:26 AM

I'm sorry I missed this thread when it was posted as well. Greek, the problem I see with your line of thinking is that if it is easier to develop speedy, LHHing OFers I don't think you can also expect them to become more valuable as a type, or a market inefficiency to be exploited. If these types of players are going to wind up being desired for the post-PED game I think you'll quickly see a glut of them, and if you're trying to trade them for anything valuable there will be other teams out there ready to offer Brett Gardner, Jeremy Reed, Coco Crisp, Jordan Schafer, or whomever... By contrast if power bats are harder to develop they will become more valuable for their scarcity. We're already seeing that the Sox offense looks like it's going to be dependent on an infusion of thunder from somewhere outside the organization, and I think a lot people think they're going to be lucky to trade off some of their top young prospects to fill that need...

I think the Sox should be drafting more HS lottery pick types. It's going to be the only way for them to wind up with a player who would go at the top of the draft 3 years latter. THey need to invest a lot of picks in the Place, Middlebrooks, Renfroe types so that they can get that one "hit" who does develop into a guy who can hit in the middle of the lineup. I think if there's a market inefficiency coming in the post-PED game, it will be in power hitters, who will be a lot less common, and therefore more valuable. Whichever team can figure out how to get better at developing them will have a saleable commodity.

QUOTE (Paul M @ Jun 12 2009, 08:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Shouldn't the fact they've been superior when it comes to developing pitchers mean they can use that currency to get hitters? Moreover, this lets them avoid the trap that is buying pitching on the open market and translate the surplus into more bats? This draft really didn't have any bats that I regret them passing up in the first two rounds, but it would be nice to get a legit power bat in the OF. Still, I expect this offense will be infused with more youth through trades at some point.


Similar to the above, I just do not see this working out. As a plan it seems to run head on into the "you can never have enough pitching" paradigm. If we expect the MLB team to have a rotation 6 or 7 guys deep, and at the same time be willing to let our top pitchers walk for draft picks rather than pay them "more than they're worth" then the Sox are never going to have enough pitching to make deals outside of salary dumps like VMart or proposed deals for ancillary pieces (Like the proposed Bowden for Montero swap of last offseason).

#11 xjack


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Posted 09 June 2010 - 01:31 PM

QUOTE (smastroyin @ Jun 12 2009, 08:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Setting aside the "best player available" stuff for a moment, I am once again a bit disappointed. We can't really judge until the signings are all made, but I'm a little sic of this FO's fascination with 80's St. Louis Cardinal type players. Too many speedy no power OFers and not enough bats.

That's a fair complaint about past drafts, but this one? Vitek hit 17 homers this year. Brentz hit 18 this year, 28 last year. And the two high school CFs they drafted -- Ramos and Perkins -- are supposed to have significant power potential.... Brentz is the key. I think we all agree that a RH power bat is a need that the Sox have ignored in the draft, but this time around they used a high pick.

#12 SumnerH


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Posted 09 June 2010 - 01:37 PM

QUOTE (xjack @ Jun 9 2010, 02:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
That's a fair complaint about past drafts, but this one? Vitek hit 17 homers this year. Brentz hit 18 this year, 28 last year. And the two high school CFs they drafted -- Ramos and Perkins -- are supposed to have significant power potential.... Brentz is the key. I think we all agree that a RH power bat is a need that the Sox have ignored in the draft, but this time around they used a high pick.


The post you're replying to was from June 2009, FYI.

#13 xjack


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Posted 09 June 2010 - 03:57 PM

QUOTE (SumnerH @ Jun 9 2010, 02:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The post you're replying to was from June 2009, FYI.

excellent laugh.gif