453 replies to this topic

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

Three weeks before the draft and all's quiet (in SoSH land anyways) ..

BP's Kevein Goldstein has his first mock draft up over at Baseball Prospectus:

http://www.baseballp...?articleid=8915

[subscription required]

A snipett - Sox are picking 28th - just ahead of the MFY

28. Boston Red Sox

This is almost a layup; when you're at the end of the first round with nearly three weeks to go, there's a lot of guesswork involved. The Red Sox obviously need catching, and Tony Sanchez is a local product who offers good defense and a power bat. That said, the Red Sox also love tools, and it should be noted that general manager Theo Epstein was recently seen checking out Texas prep outfielder Everett Williams.

Selection: Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College

Is this just Goldstein musing on a local product? Have their been any other rumours speculating on players the Sox might be high on?

[JulE6]

I saw Sanchez play a fair amount for the Y-D Red Sox last year in the Cape League, and I came away fairly impressed. He showed a little bit of power and only made two errors behind the plate. I recall him being very sound behind the plate with a decent arm and a bat that could potentially translate well to the next level. I wouldn't be disappointed at all to see Sanchez in the Red Sox system

[SoxScout]

Man, Williams or Sanchez would be extremely underwhelming.

[JulE6]

Man, Williams or Sanchez would be extremely underwhelming.

Idk Scout, I like Sanchez. I wouldn't be too upset if they got him, and I'd be thrilled if they could get him in a later round. Who are you looking at for #28?

[SoxScout]

I have no idea, but Sanchez sounds more like Lavarnway or Federowicz than a first round pick.


And Williams is "Michael Bourn without the speed" who swings and misses a lot. WHAT???

[JulE6]

I have no idea, but Sanchez sounds more like Lavarnway or Federowicz than a first round pick.


And Williams is "Michael Bourn without the speed" who swings and misses a lot. WHAT???

I think Sanchez is more comparable to Exposito than he his Federowicz. More power than Federowicz but plays about the same level of defense.

And I agree, I'm not sure drafting what sounds like the April version of Cameron Maybin is a good idea

[TheGoldenGreek33]

I'm with SoxScout on Sanchez. It would be the most boring and unexciting pick. I highly doubt they'll take him or Stassi at #28. However, I think you're selling Everett Williams a little short. He may be the best hitting prep outfielder in the draft. He's a good athlete, has good bloodlines (his dad played in the NFL), and has produced as much as any high school hitter. BA has Everett the third best center fielder in the draft, behind Tate and Wheeler, and in front of Trout and Pollock.

Sanchez is definitely more Lavarnway and Fed-Ex, not Exposito. He has a slow bat and can't really hit much off-speed. He's had weight issues in the past, and his power potential is limited. IMO, it would be an awful 1st pick.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 21 May 2009 - 07:29 PM.

[JulE6]

Who cares if it's boring or unexciting? It fills a need and he's a solid prospect.

[SoxScout]

What need? MLB starting catcher? I don't see how he fills that.

Between Wagner, Expo, the two picks last year and praying Oscar Perez is the real deal I am fine with where our organization stands at catcher. It's not like Salty, Teagarden or Montero are hitting and we really screwed up by not getting one. If Wagner at least walks when catching that would be huge.

I'd much rather take someone like Pollock and then pay for a HS catcher.

[JulE6]

I can endorse Pollock.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Who cares if it's boring or unexciting? It fills a need and he's a solid prospect.

A. You don't draft for need.
B. With the amount of depth in the minor leagues, you can easily trade for a ML-ready catcher and still be in good shape. He'd be no better than Mark Wagner or Dusty Brown. Sanchez is what he is. He has zero projection, offers little power going forward, and I honestly couldn't imagine a worse first pick, not even AJ fucking Pollock.

[ItOnceWasMyLife]

From Klaw chat today...

Pat (Evansville, IN): Keith, I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have the Red Sox taking a catcher (Sanchez, Stassi) at #28. Not only would that be a pretty awful pick, it's assuming the Sox would be drafting for need, which is pretty absurd in itself. With that said, it's inevitable they'll be going after whomever drops due to signability concerns. So my question to you is, which name in the first round could you most see falling due to signability?

Keith Law: (1:26 PM ET ) First off, neither of those would be a "pretty awful pick" or even a "slightly awful pick" or even a "really, it's okay, I'd just rather not talk about it for a few minutes" pick. Stassi was probably a top-20 guy until his shoulder got sore and he didn't throw for a few weeks, although he's back now and throwing fine. I think I answered the second part above - Tate for sure, Green maybe, Turner if the price is too high. And Matt Purke; I've heard $3MM on him and Kevin Goldstein heard $5MM.

[JulE6]

Wait...Green? As in Grant Green? No way he's on the board at 28, regardless of how hard it is to sign him.

[amarshal2]

Wait...Green? As in Grant Green? No way he's on the board at 28, regardless of how hard it is to sign him.

He's a Boras client who had an underwhelming year. It may be unlikely but "no way" is way off. You have no idea what Boras may ask for and how teams will react. He's a junior who could go back to school. It's not quite a LaPorta 2006 situation but it might be close.

[PaulinMyrBch]

I'm curious and I don't have a subscription, where is Colby Holmes on the list?

I coach his younger brother on a 13U travel team. Most have him projected in the low 60's.

[SoxScout]

I have seen Holmes everywhere from 45 to 90.

Edited by SoxScout, 22 May 2009 - 07:23 PM.

[PaulinMyrBch]

Size might be an issue. The velocity is legit.

[OCD SS]

My question is how much the shift to starting the draft in the evening for TV will affect "signability picks."

Part of the strategy in landing signability guys was supposedly to scoop them up before the end of the day's picks, the idea being that a team could negotiate a bit more in-depth with them after the player sees that he could go undrafted. This is supposedly why those picks came from the Sox in the late teens in 2006 but Middlebrooks was grabbed in the 5th round (at the end of the day; another comparable pick might be Tim Mellville from last year's draft, going in the 4th round to KC).

Does the late start, and fewer picks that first night, have the potential to push the "signability guys" into even earlier rounds (where their talent would probably dictate they should go)?

[templeUsox]

Who cares if it's boring or unexciting? It fills a need and he's a solid prospect.

Who cares if it fills a need?

[Quintanariffic]

Wait...Green? As in Grant Green? No way he's on the board at 28, regardless of how hard it is to sign him.

Well if he doesn't work out on the field, he cn always come and play a mean guitar in concert at Fenway.

[JakeRae]

My question is how much the shift to starting the draft in the evening for TV will affect "signability picks."

Part of the strategy in landing signability guys was supposedly to scoop them up before the end of the day's picks, the idea being that a team could negotiate a bit more in-depth with them after the player sees that he could go undrafted. This is supposedly why those picks came from the Sox in the late teens in 2006 but Middlebrooks was grabbed in the 5th round (at the end of the day; another comparable pick might be Tim Mellville from last year's draft, going in the 4th round to KC).

Does the late start, and fewer picks that first night, have the potential to push the "signability guys" into even earlier rounds (where their talent would probably dictate they should go)?

The moving forward of some signability guys last year probably had more to do with the increasing recognition of a few clubs of the incredible value that such picks possess. With more teams aggressively pursuing signability type guys, teams need to pick the guys they really want earlier and earlier in the draft.

So, if we believe that last year was a trend toward a greater recognition by MLB of the value presented by players like Middlebrooks and Melville, we would expect more of these sorts of picks in the 4-8 rounds than in the past. I'd be pretty surprised if signability type picks manage to slide up into the third round. But, I'm still not sure what impact the economic situation will have on this years draft. Will it push teams toward investing more money in the draft as an attempt to create greater value per dollar spent? This would make competition for signability guys greater. Or, will the economic pressure push teams to cut costs and, since the draft doesn't have a great short term impact, will the draft be seen as a relatively painless place to do this?

I both think the latter option is more likely, and am hopeful that it could present an enormous opportunity for the Red Sox use their financial advantage to acquire tons of talent in this draft. But, how teams choose to spend in this draft will be a very interesting story to watch develop on draft day.

[SoxScout]

Keith Law mock, published today..

28. Boston Red Sox

Max Stassi, c, Yuba City HS, Yuba City, Calif.:

Stassi threw very well last week in front of Theo Epstein, and he's always been able to hit. He shouldn't really get this far, but the time off from throwing (he had a slightly sore shoulder in late April/early May) made him a little harder to cross-check. They've been linked to BC catcher Tony Sanchez, but that sounds a bit like the "they're going to take the local guy" theory, which isn't Boston's M.O. They also like Everett Williams and Fuentes if he should get this far.

http://insider.espn....tory?id=4206996

[TheGoldenGreek33]

On Tuesday, he had to discuss "signability" with a member of the Boston Red Sox organization.

Boston GM Theo Epstein dropped by, Stassi said. And after the meeting with a local Red Sox scout at their home, Jim Stassi said Max will be working out for the team the day before the draft at Fenway Park in Boston.

link

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

link

Hmmm .. increasing the hype that he will be a tough sign is a good idea .. increasing the possibility he will make it to #28.

Of course - what is the draft history of 1st round prep catchers? Are they as risky as high school starters?

[Seabass177]

I'm surprised to see Stassi falling to the Sox in Law's mock, as everything I've seen on him up until now had him in the 16-20 range, with quite a few mocks putting him with Arizona. There's some video of him hitting for his Team One squad here, and he looks to have a quick, compact swing with some decent power.

The one shocker in Law's mock was Donovan Tate not going in the first round. He's been linked to the Padres at the #3 spot, and he's a five tool player in a draft that's extremely thin on hitting. I know his bonus demands are supposed to be substantial and he's repped by Boras, but I'd prefer him to Stassi if he were to fall to the Sox at 28.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Stassi would be a decent pick. Again though, if the Sox truly aren't drafting for need, why not pop Luke Bailey in the third of fourth? Bailey was widely seen as the best catching prospect in the draft pre-TJ surgery. I'd much rather see that then taking Stassi with the first pick. The reason Stassi has fallen a bit is because of his shoulder. He's admitted it hasn't felt right all spring, but if the Sox think his shoulder is fine, he's probably who you'll see them take at 28.

KLaw's rationale for leaving Tate out of the first round had to do with the fact that the Padres aren't totally sold on Tate and past SD, there "isn't another team in the first round that has expressed a ton of interest in him"... I have a hard time believing the Sox or Yanks aren't interested in him. Actually, I'll guarantee if he fell that low, either us or the Yanks would grab him. You can't afford not to. He's the best prep position player in the draft and is, without a doubt, the most athletic specimen this year. KLaw also mentioned there being some issues with his make-up, but I've read several articles saying the contrary. That's the beauty of the draft, who to believe.

[gammoseditor]

Stassi would be a decent pick. Again though, if the Sox truly aren't drafting for need, why not pop Luke Bailey in the third of fourth? Bailey was widely seen as the best catching prospect in the draft pre-TJ surgery. I'd much rather see that then taking Stassi with the first pick. The reason Stassi has fallen a bit is because of his shoulder. He's admitted it hasn't felt right all spring, but if the Sox think his shoulder is fine, he's probably who you'll see them take at 28.

Well, if you aren't drafting for need, is there a reason to not take both of them, if you think Stassi is the best avaiable at 28 and Bailey is the best available in the third or fourth round?

[RedOctober3829]

Our CF, Brian Witkowski, is trying out for the Mets at Citi Field the day before the draft. He is a leadoff hitter who also hit for power and has plus-range in center.

Brian's season stats
.341/.435/.653 12 HR 36 RBI 15 2B 2 3B 10 SB

His one drawback is his K/BB ratio. He walked 27 times and struck out 26 times in 176 ABs. You would like to see a better ratio from a leadoff hitter. He looks to be a late-round pick. The Reds have also expressed interest.

[Sinistas]

I could be mistaken, but wouldn't think a 1.03 BB/K is cause for concern.

[templeUsox]

Yea, there's nothing wrong with that ratio. His bigger issue is that he's a senior and those numbers just aren't that good enough from a senior.

Edited by templeUsox, 27 May 2009 - 08:15 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

Yea, there's nothing wrong with that ratio. His bigger issue is that he's a senior and those numbers just aren't that good enough from a senior.

I just think a leadoff hitter shouldn't strike out as many times as he walks. I forgot to add that he picked up switch-hitting this year as well. He is a natural lefty and hit 5 of his 12 HRs from the right side. He is a fringe prospect at best, but he did develop more power this year and has a plus-glove in CF.

[Green Monster]

Matt Carasiti, RHP, Berlin HS, Berlin CT

We know the family and he has been contacted by 26/30 teams so far, with the Red Sox and Yankees showing the most interest recently. They are expecting 5th - 8th round selection. I don't have a BA subscription but would be interested in their comments if anyone could paste highlights.

http://www.courant.c...0,3397825.story

[SouthPaw21]

John Manuel is doing a chat at Baseball America. Red Sox question....

Richard (Boston): Would you care to take a stab at a longshot tough sign that might fall to the Redsox?

John Manuel: Bruce Fields' son, Daniel, a prep SS in Detroit, is the kind of guy who has big tools and a big price tag. He would't be a first-round guy, mor ein the Kalish-Hissey-Westmoreland mold. I think Boston would take some of the prep P's who could fall, like Jacob Turner, but we're not hearing them on Tate or Grant Green.

[jeff_moffett]

John Manuel is doing a chat at Baseball America. Red Sox question....

One name to look for: Jake Barrett (RHP), he's probably a 5th-10th round kid, but this guy is a stud. I watched him three times this year. The second time he was 90-91 in the first, and 92-94 in the 7th. I didn't have as good a look at the gun the third time out.

He also led AZ in HR's with something like 18, but doesn't project to be a hitter.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Based solely on talent, Barrett is a 2nd rounder.

[Williams Head Case]

Baseball America has a mock draft up for those with subscriptions.

[redinchicago]

He's a mock draft of bloggers (I know...) that has the Sox taking a HS arm:

http://mvn.com/outsi...rett-gould.html

The 6-A pitcher of the year in Kansas in 2008, Garrett Gould is a great athlete that is committed to Wichita State next year, where he could possibly play both ways as a pitcher and an outfielder. However, the 6'4" righty has rocketed up draft charts with improved velocity, and could sneak into the first round in June.

Gould benefited by a strength program he was put on over the off-season, and has taken his fastball up a notch, sitting in the low 90's - and it's not even his best pitch. He possesses on of the top curveballs amongst prep arms, a legit low-80's 12-6 power breaker that is a plus offering right now.

Garrett has shown a good feel for a change-up. He has good command of all three pitches, and while some scouts have their quibbles about his unconventional delivery, it doesn't affect his overall command and adds some deception to it. His frame allows for a good 20-25 lbs of muscle to be added, so there is plenty of projection to safely assume he'll add a few ticks to an already above average fastball. Gould was recently named the Kansas Gatorade Player of the Year, and finished his senior year by going 6-1 with a 0.88 ERA and 95 K's in 45 IP.

[Quintanariffic]

He's a mock draft of bloggers (I know...) that has the Sox taking a HS arm:

http://mvn.com/outsi...rett-gould.html

That selection was made by our own GoldenGreek33.

[SoxScout]

Keith Law updated mock:

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College: GM Neal Huntington and scouting director Greg Smith flew to meet with Sanchez last week. They don't have a deal in place, but this is the most likely choice from their mix of players, which also includes Bobby Borchering and Wil Myers.

?????????????????????

28. Boston Red Sox

Max Stassi, C, Yuba City HS, Yuba City, Calif.: I think they'd prefer Fuentes, but I don't see him getting past the gauntlet of Minnesota, the White Sox, and the Angels.

29. New York Yankees

Slade Heathcott, CF, Texas HS, Texarkana, Texas: Heathcott is one of the best tools players in this draft, but his uncertain family life (his father is in jail on drug charges and his mother is out of the picture for similar reasons) and expected price tag had him looking like a second- or third-rounder. Arizona, the Phillies and the Yankees have all scouted him heavily the last three weeks. The Yanks, meanwhile, have shown a lot of interest in Arnett, but I doubt he gets here.

[Wingack]

There seems to be a lot of recent buzz around the Yankees and Slade Heathcott. How does everyone feel about him here?

The Yankee system has really been lacking in the positional player department (especially via the draft) over the last decade and the I am intrigued by the idea of Heathcott and honestly I would not be upset if they went for a second positional player with their next pick as well. Tate if he is still around because of cash concerns or Renfroe.

[gammoseditor]

Keith Law updated mock:

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The Pirates pick might not make a lot of sense but the rumors are they're going cheap with there first pick and using the money saved to sign the top latin player this year for around $4 million because they don't think the talent in the draft is worth it this year. One of the other two guys Law has them linked two he has going 16th and the other he doesn't have in the first round at all.

[BigMike]

There seems to be a lot of recent buzz around the Yankees and Slade Heathcott. How does everyone feel about him here?

The Yankee system has really been lacking in the positional player department (especially via the draft) over the last decade and the I am intrigued by the idea of Heathcott and honestly I would not be upset if they went for a second positional player with their next pick as well. Tate if he is still around because of cash concerns or Renfroe.

Reading his bio on BA, he sounds a lot like Trot Nixon to me. Kid has a chance to be a pretty good player I guess, but he sure doesn't seem like a guy you take if you are exploiting your financial advantages. Plus the kid has been hurt a lot already (shoulder, and an ACL). Seems like he has exploited one really hot stretch to blow up in the last few weeks. As a Sox fan, the Yankees picking Slade Heathcoat would make me pretty happy

I would think they would look more for one of the real high ceiling arms, or if any of the other big time players slide.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College: GM Neal Huntington and scouting director Greg Smith flew to meet with Sanchez last week. They don't have a deal in place, but this is the most likely choice from their mix of players, which also includes Bobby Borchering and Wil Myers.

This is the type of BS that has doomed that franchise. There have to be better players who they can get for a lesser price if that is the goal.

[templeUsox]

We did a pre-draft podcast tonight at SoxProspects.com.

Link to mp3 download

iTunes link

[Seabass177]

This is the type of BS that has doomed that franchise. There have to be better players who they can get for a lesser price if that is the goal.

It'd be the same as the Moskos pick. I thought they'd changed directions a bit after taking Alvarez last year, but old habits die hard.

I'd be pretty shocked if the Yanks didn't take Scheppers if he fell to them at 29. Yes, he's an injury risk, but they gave Brackman an MLB deal when they knew he'd need TJ surgery. The prevailing theme I'm getting from all of these mocks is that after the third tier (Strasburg / Ackley / Matzek, Crow, Miller, etc.) there's a ton of flux; the 15th best guy in the draft isn't much better than the 45th.

[David Laurila]

I thought they'd changed directions a bit after taking Alvarez last year, but old habits die hard.

I don't know that "old habits" is really accurate, as last year's draft marked their first under a new president, GM, and scouting director. Greg Smith, the SD, was previously with the Tigers and took Verlander in his last draft for them.

I don't know who the Pirates will take next week, but Huntington & his front office are light years ahead of the previous regime.

[ehaz]

http://www.baseballa...og/draft/?p=949 Kyle Gibson, who should be a top 10 pick is sliding down after some injury concerns. Past two starts he's dipped down 10 mph slower on his fastball. Last start he went 8 shutout innnings, even with the supposed elbow tightness. Would you take him if he fell to the Sox on draft day, or play it safe?

[Ymmot]

http://www.baseballa...og/draft/?p=949 Kyle Gibson, who should be a top 10 pick is sliding down after some injury concerns. Past two starts he's dipped down 10 mph slower on his fastball. Last start he went 8 shutout innnings, even with the supposed elbow tightness. Would you take him if he fell to the Sox on draft day, or play it safe?

Jim Callis says he has a stress fracture in his forearm Link

Keith Law tweeted that there is no ligament damage.

Kyle Gibson has a stress fracture in his forearm but no ligament damage. Buying opportunity for a smart team in late first round.

Edited by Ymmot, 06 June 2009 - 05:54 PM.

[SoxScout]

I'd take him in a heartbeat, then of course shut him down and get him on an arm program heading into spring.

Edited by SoxScout, 06 June 2009 - 05:59 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

Due to the lack of power bats in the organization, shouldn't the Sox be taking the bat with the best power potential available especially if it is an outfielder? Or would you keep drafting pitching? I just don't think that they need to be drafting a catcher in the 1st round.

[burstnbloom]

Due to the lack of power bats in the organization, shouldn't the Sox be taking the bat with the best power potential available especially if it is an outfielder? Or would you keep drafting pitching? I just don't think that they need to be drafting a catcher in the 1st round.

I think the Sox believe that drafting and developing pitching is the number one priority of the player development system. Free Agent pitchers seem to be the worst possibly investment. You can find power on the trade and free agent market, especially if you have a number of expendable young arms to trade for them in your system. If the best player available is a power bat, I see no reason not to take him, but I don't think you should go out of your way to draft a power hitter if there are better arms available.