1193 replies to this topic

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The Angels seem much happier to play Aybar and Figgins than they are to play that non small ball playing Wood.

IIRC Wood's defensive rep at SS isn't very good. That may have something to do with it as well.

[Rudy Pemberton]

As to the Tigers being willing to take Lars and Clay or some such for Miggy... the prospects they gave up were at the time better than any combo we could put together now, and they are currently in first place in an incredibly weak division in which a few career years can get any team into the playoffs any year.

The ironic thing is that the players the Tigers sent to Florida (Maybin and Miller) are probably seen as tarnished now too. I don't see it as particularly likely that the Tigers would be interested in moving Cabrera, or that the Sox would be willing to give up tons of talent AND acquire such a huge contract, seems to be against their MO.

[Trautwein's Degree]

The Sox biggest need over the next 3-5 years outside of a catcher is a power bat that they can plug into the lineup and let mash. And I don't mean someone like Jason Bay who, while a nifty weapon, is not going to put up regular 1.000+ OPS seasons.

Not for anything but Bay is .301/.433/.657 with 12 homeruns and 42 RBI. Bay posts a VORP of 23 and an OPS+ of 171. He's having an MVP caliber season. Ellsbury is a "nifty weapon" but Bay is the real deal.

There is no such thing as a guarantee, but young offensive superstars are the least risky group of players. Miggy over the next half-decade projects to be similar to Manny in terms of his ability to hit for average and power while posting high OBPs.

Cabrera is fat, slow, and can't play defense. He has old player skills.

For a team with cash and prospect pools the size of Boston's, it is players like Cabrera that they should sign or get in a trade, for developing talent like Masterson and Bowden and Clay and Lowrie and Ellsbury and Kalish and Lars allows them to maximize their value by upgrading to the highest level of established Major Leaguers. The Sox right now are in the ideal position to make such a move, and I would trade any of the young guys to get Cabrera for the next 5 years.

When has Theo ever done this? He didn't do it for Santana or Arod and I'll bet he doesn't do this for Cabrera.

I've touched upon offense, but what about defense? IMO, it doesn't matter. His bat is so good that the defensive misgivings are similar to Manny's in that while harmful, they are not detrimental and do not significantly detract from his overall value.

Defense does matter. The fact that Ortiz can't play the field hurts the Red Sox because it forces Lowell and Drew either onto the field or out of the lineup. Then there's interleague play.

But, you ask, where would he play? I say again: it doesn't matter. He's the type of player that you make room for, whether it means a subsequent trade of Lowell or not resigning Bay - yes, I mean that. The Sox were prepared to look for similar trades if they signed Tex, so I think they would do the same for Cabrera - whom I would rather have than Tex over the life of their respective contracts.

Mark Teixeira in addition to being an elite hitter is an elite first baseman. There's a reason that Teixeria made a lot more coin in the offseason than Adam Dunn despite similar offensive production: defense matters.

From the Tigers' perspective, while they did trade some young prospects to get Miggy, those that they would fetch from Boston would arguably have greater value, especially if they were to nab Lars plus I am an Idiot/Bowden plus Bard or some other crazy combination. I admit that I thought the Tigers would suck enough this season to make this trade possibility much closer to reality than I believe it is, but if Detroit suddenly bottoms out over the next two months, I would not rule out Dambrowski's pulling another blockbuster.

At this point in your post, you've made several stupid assertions but this paragraph is just lazy. The Tigers are in first place in a wide open AL Central.

[TomRicardo]

Just so everyone is clear:

THE DETROIT TIGERS ARE NOT GOING TO TRADE MIGUEL CABRERA NO MATTER WHAT WE OFFER THEM. HE IS NOT A TRADE OPTION.

[SoxScout]

Cabrera is fat, slow, and can't play defense. He has old player skills.

Cabrera my be slow, but he is not fat or anything close to fat. He is also playing a fine 1B this year after not completely sucking there in his first year last year. I think anyone not willing to bet on his age 27-32 offensive years is absolutely crazy.

[pokey_reese]

If we are going to include Cabrera in this thread, then why not Pujols. He would look great in a Sox uniform. Also, a young Ted Williams.

Honestly, the list of guys that I would give up Buchholz for (not including Cabrera), would be pretty short, starting with Victor Martinez, Adrian Gonzalez... and pretty much ending there. However, I do think that any deal that involves a young, slugging 1B would allow us to at least consider adding Lars Anderson to the pot, but most teams have an all bat/no glove prospect that will likely end up at 1B anyhow, making him less attractive, along with the fact that basically everyone needs pitching. More and more it looks like if the Sox move at all on this it will be Nick Johnson, with the advantage that he won't cost us a king's ransom in prospects. Plus, our dugout can re-enact "Bucket List" during rain delays once Smoltz gets back.

[NDame616]

The reason why Cabrera isn't an option

The AL Central is wide open and the Tigers are in first place. Miguel Cabrera is the most important piece to a playoff caliber team.

While we are at it, let's see what it'll cost for Josh Hamilton, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins. All of those are as equally likely to be traded as Miguel Cabrera.

Edited by NDame616, 22 May 2009 - 09:17 AM.

[TomRicardo]

If we are going to include Cabrera in this thread, then why not Pujols. He would look great in a Sox uniform. Also, a young Ted Williams.

Honestly, the list of guys that I would give up Buchholz for (not including Cabrera), would be pretty short, starting with Victor Martinez, Adrian Gonzalez... and pretty much ending there. However, I do think that any deal that involves a young, slugging 1B would allow us to at least consider adding Lars Anderson to the pot, but most teams have an all bat/no glove prospect that will likely end up at 1B anyhow, making him less attractive, along with the fact that basically everyone needs pitching. More and more it looks like if the Sox move at all on this it will be Nick Johnson, with the advantage that he won't cost us a king's ransom in prospects. Plus, our dugout can re-enact "Bucket List" during rain delays once Smoltz gets back.

I would trade Buchholz for Napoli in a heartbeat. The fact he only gets half the catching starts in LAAAAAA is criminal.

[Joshv02]

I would trade Buchholz for Napoli in a heartbeat. The fact he only gets half the catching starts in LAAAAAA is criminal.

He has had one game off in their last 20 contests as he DHs whenever he doesn't C. He is now being used pretty optimally, considering their injuries, roster, and his strengths. He'd get less playing time in Boston, in fact. I don't think he is a realistic target anymore.

[Everybody Loves Rey Quinones]

I think one player the Sox should look at is JJ Hardy.

Reasons why:
-Upward trending OPS
-Power w/ a better major league track record > than Wood
-UZR avg of 11 over last 2 complete years (though I am not a huge fan of UZR)
-Brewers have Escobar waiting in the wings.
-Brewers have gap at 2B with Weeks out (could also be used as why not though)
-Brewers could use pitching in the rotation and pen
-Hardy being a pull hitter would be a good fit for Fenway
-Escobar is a better fit at SS than 2B so why not have him come up and play his natural position
-Brewers could use Lugo at 2B with Weeks out
-Brewers get a pro-rated rental with Penny for the pennant race
-Delcarmen gives Brewers insurance if Hoffman breaks down


Why not:

-As mentioned Weeks is out and Escobar is likely to be put in place at 2B
-Hardy needs to continue to improve on plate discipline as he averages 3.9 pitches per PA
-Brewers would not want Lugo's contract

Potential deal:

Sox trade: Penny, Lugo, Delcarmen, and Doubront + cash for Lugo's contract

Brewers trade: JJ Hardy

I included Doubront as the Brewers would want something longer term than just Hardy for Delcarmen.

This deal allows Sox to fill some short term gaps for the Brewers while providing some longer term answers as well.

For the Sox, they get a 27 year old SS off to a poor start who has been upward trending over the last 3 years with better range and athleticism up the middle who adds power to the lineup. Sox would be buying low on Hardy. It also allows them to shed Lugo and Penny opening a rotation slot. With Penny pitching better over the past few starts, Dice K returning, Jedi to the pen and Bard up, it would be a good time to sell.

Edited by Everybody Loves Rey Quinones, 22 May 2009 - 09:48 AM.

[czar]

Potential deal:

Sox trade: Penny, Lugo, Delcarmen, and Doubront + cash for Lugo's contract

Brewers trade: JJ Hardy

I included Doubront as the Brewers would want something longer term than just Hardy for Delcarmen.

This is a yearly issue that comes up, but why do people believe that teams will trade us good players for players who have been-- well-- not good on the Sox.

You can't just throw our garbage together and get a piece of gold.

[Bowlerman9]

Is Hardy enough of an upgrade over Lowrie to give up Penny (who is probably worth a B- prospect, give or take), MDC, Lugo and a ton of cash, AND Felix?

I think this would be a horrible horrible deal for the Sox for what could be a very small upgrade.

[Bowlerman9]

You can't just throw our garbage together and get a piece of gold.

See, I think the opposite. I dont think JJ Hardy is "gold". The problem with buying low is that, well, the value doesnt always return.

Hardy could be a 740-760 OPS SS, which is exactly what Lowrie could be when he returns. I wouldnt trade MDC and Felix for Hardy and I wouldnt throw in another trading chip (Penny) and waste a ton of cash just to move Lugo as well.

[Alternate34]

This thread has included some pretty wacky trade suggestions, the prime ones being Miguel Cabrera and JJ Hardy.

Let's all agree to a filter. The standings. Look at the standings and see if the team is above .500 and within a few games of 1st place (or in 1st place). Don't suggest trades for established star players of that team. It's not going to happen. Milwaukee will not trade JJ Hardy in the middle of a pennant race unless they have pictures of him committing unspeakable crimes. Even if Detroit was out of contention, they may not trade Cabrera who is one of the few elite young stars. Keep the discussion reasonable. Look at the players on teams like the Indians and the Nationals, not the Brewers and the Tigers.

I echo the sentiments that the Red Sox have to be looking for a player that can play in the field effectively. Getting a player like Adrian Gonzalez while maybe moving Lowell somewhere would be fantastic. Victor Martinez would be a decent pickup too if the price is right. Buchholz would probably be involved in a trade for Gonzalez and I would be OK with that, though Theo it seems might not. On another point, holy shit Gonzalez has hit 15 HR this year so far though HR/FB % is really high.

[Everybody Loves Rey Quinones]

Is Hardy enough of an upgrade over Lowrie to give up Penny (who is probably worth a B- prospect, give or take), MDC, Lugo and a ton of cash, AND Felix?

I think this would be a horrible horrible deal for the Sox for what could be a very small upgrade.

I think defensively this is not a small upgrade.

[Everybody Loves Rey Quinones]

This thread has included some pretty wacky trade suggestions, the prime ones being Miguel Cabrera and JJ Hardy.

Let's all agree to a filter. The standings. Look at the standings and see if the team is above .500 and within a few games of 1st place (or in 1st place). Don't suggest trades for established star players of that team. It's not going to happen. Milwaukee will not trade JJ Hardy in the middle of a pennant race unless they have pictures of him committing unspeakable crimes. Even if Detroit was out of contention, they may not trade Cabrera who is one of the few elite young stars. Keep the discussion reasonable. Look at the players on teams like the Indians and the Nationals, not the Brewers and the Tigers.

I echo the sentiments that the Red Sox have to be looking for a player that can play in the field effectively. Getting a player like Adrian Gonzalez while maybe moving Lowell somewhere would be fantastic. Victor Martinez would be a decent pickup too if the price is right. Buchholz would probably be involved in a trade for Gonzalez and I would be OK with that, though Theo it seems might not. On another point, holy shit Gonzalez has hit 15 HR this year so far though HR/FB % is really high.

Actually the reason why Milwaukee would trade Hardy is to upgrade their staff FOR the pennant race. They're not selling off but realigning resources for the race and if they can bolster their staff and pen and find a fill in for Weeks while allowing Escobar to enter the major leagues at his natural position, I don't see that this is a white flag at all. I don't think trades need to be limited to teams out of contention. I'd also debate whether JJ Hardy is a "star player". I would argue Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are star players for the Brewers as opposed to JJ Hardy.

The fact one person thinks the Sox would be over paying while the other thinks we're moving garbage for gold could indicate reality is in the middle somewhere. I think this is far more realistic than thinking the Indians would trade Victor Martinez to the Sox or that the Padres would dump their best player and a potential NL MVP canidate to the Sox for a pitcher with no proven major league track record and a 3B on the downside of his career. I agree I think a filter is needed.

Edited by Everybody Loves Rey Quinones, 22 May 2009 - 10:51 AM.

[opes]

Potential deal:

Sox trade: Penny, Lugo, Delcarmen, and Doubront + cash for Lugo's contract

Brewers trade: JJ Hardy

Who else are you going to throw in there? You think we should add Bard and Bowden maybe? Cause that just might be enough for Hardy. Seriously, even if they were taking offers on JJ, What you are giving them is an entire garbage truck of shit. Theres no way they would want to take on that many players. Who are they going to kick off the roster to make room for 3 guys?(assuming they'd slip Doubront into the minors)

Its really surprising how their SP's are doing so far. But the wheels will fall off any day now for at least Parra and Looper. If we were living in a dream world with wizards and unicorns, the brewers would likely want a young SP, like Masterson/Bard.

[Everybody Loves Rey Quinones]

Who else are you going to throw in there? You think we should add Bard and Bowden maybe? Cause that just might be enough for Hardy. Seriously, even if they were taking offers on JJ, What you are giving them is an entire garbage truck of shit. Theres no way they would want to take on that many players. Who are they going to kick off the roster to make room for 3 guys?(assuming they'd slip Doubront into the minors)

Its really surprising how their SP's are doing so far. But the wheels will fall off any day now for at least Parra and Looper. If we were living in a dream world with wizards and unicorns, the brewers would likely want a young SP, like Masterson/Bard.

Opes,

I'd like to answer your questions but you seem to fluctuate from the Sox giving too much (why not adding Bard and Bowden) to the garbage truck analogy. Which is it?

The 3 players to move off the roster :

1.Hardy
2. Jorge Julio (unless you're saying Delcarmen is shit vs. Julio which would be hysterical)
3. Send Gamel down vs. Lugo and dump McGehee from the 40 man.

And it sounds like you agree Penny would be an upgrade vs. Parra and Looper. I would argue that they would want some more experience in the starting rotation with a pitcher who has been involved in a pennant race like Penny to help anchor the staff.

[opes]

WORDS

RE: answering your questions
1. Adding Bard and Bowden was sarcasm.
2. Those are good options to send down.
3. I dont think Penny would be an upgrade. So far he has been passable. I actually think Buchholz would be a better solution at this time. I would think Milwaukee would rather want a younger SP for the future at a low cost.
4. Additional to my thoughts, his value obviously would be higher than Lugo, given his age, contract and stats. To acquire him, realistically it would take at least 1 young A+ SP. We happen to have a glut of excellent young arms, and imo, they would target that.

[czar]

And it sounds like you agree Penny would be an upgrade vs. Parra and Looper. I would argue that they would want some more experience in the starting rotation with a pitcher who has been involved in a pennant race like Penny to help anchor the staff.

Given what we've seen from 2009 Brad Penny, those three bolded words don't seem to go together.

The only NL GM's who are likely looking at Penny are viewing him as a 3/4/5 guy to fill out a rotation and add some depth. No one is looking at him to "anchor" a playoff bound staff.

[Everybody Loves Rey Quinones]

Given what we've seen from 2009 Brad Penny, those three bolded words don't seem to go together.

The only NL GM's who are likely looking at Penny are viewing him as a 3/4/5 guy to fill out a rotation and add some depth. No one is looking at him to "anchor" a playoff bound staff.

The Brewers current rotation:

Gallardo
Suppan
Parra
Looper
Bush

I'd give you Gallardo would be the anchor but with very little stretch run experience. I'd put Penny ahead of the other 4. Sounds like you would put Suppan ahead of Penny. I disagree as their last month's results have been similar with Suppan facing St.L and CHC but also inferior lineups in Houston and Pittsburgh while Penny's faced TB, TOR, and LAA.

Right now, despite the standings, the Brewers don't match up with the Cubs or Cards from a rotation perspective. Melvin has to know he needs to do something in order for them to remain in contention. Suppan was a solid #3 -#4 last year behind CC and Sheets. To ask him to be a #2 is asking too much. If the Brewers want someone like Peavy, Melvin will have to further empty the system after giving up LaPorta etc last year. I think he'd be more preferable to going a little more conservative this year with adding Penny and not giving up as much with Escobar waiting in the wings. Getting Delcarmen makes this less risky for Melvin as he bolsters the pen which will see alot of use in the second half given the back half of their rotation and Felix helps justify things if Penny walks after the season.

[czar]

Gallardo
Suppan
Parra
Looper
Bush

I'd give you Gallardo would be the anchor but with very little stretch run experience. I'd put Penny ahead of the other 4. Sounds like you would put Suppan ahead of Penny. I disagree as their last month's results have been similar with Suppan facing St.L and CHC but also inferior lineups in Houston and Pittsburgh while Penny's faced TB, TOR, and LAA.

Bush has been the team's best pitcher this season; Looper has been pretty solid as well. In fact, all five of those guys have better (league relative) stats than Penny so far. And it's not like Penny's peripherals over the last 2 years are hinting at some major breakout anytime soon.

Now, I understand that you can make somewhat of an argument that Penny will obviously pitch better in the NL Central, but I don't think anyone would agree that the Brewers would be looking at Penny as a guy who can slot in as a #2 on a pennant-caliber team.

[OCD SS]

IIRC Wood's defensive rep at SS isn't very good. That may have something to do with it as well.

I remember hearing Jim Callis compare Wood and Lowrie on a podcast, and at the time Wood was seen as the better defender.

[jippaman]

Not for anything but Bay is .301/.433/.657 with 12 homeruns and 42 RBI. Bay posts a VORP of 23 and an OPS+ of 171. He's having an MVP caliber season. Ellsbury is a "nifty weapon" but Bay is the real deal.

Bay is great. But he's not Miggy. And if you think Bay is going to put up these numbers for the next 5 years, you're going to be very disappointed. Plus, trading for Miggy doesn't preclude resigning Bay.

Cabrera is fat, slow, and can't play defense. He has old player skills.

Manny wasn't fat, but he was slow and couldn't play defense. He was also one of the best hitters we've ever seen. Cabrera is from that same lineage, and while I'm not saying he'll be as good as Manny, his bat places him in the top 5 offensive forces in the forseeable future. Not sure how you can argue with this.

When has Theo ever done this? He didn't do it for Santana or Arod and I'll bet he doesn't do this for Cabrera.

Different situation completely. Santana is a pitcher with much more risk than an offensive stud, while at the time a trade for A-rod was possible, it would have depleted the farm system. Now we're loaded and can absorb the loss of top prospects. The point isn't that Theo will make a trade, but that it's not an absurd idea.

Defense does matter. The fact that Ortiz can't play the field hurts the Red Sox because it forces Lowell and Drew either onto the field or out of the lineup.

Defense absolutely matters, I completely agree. But there are certain bats that overcome defensive shortcomings. I'm not going to give examples as many of the names are quite obvious (for one, Papi in his prime).

Then there's interleague play.

Irrelevant. If Theo ever made a decision based upon 15 games a year, we're all screwed.

Mark Teixeira in addition to being an elite hitter is an elite first baseman. There's a reason that Teixeria made a lot more coin in the offseason than Adam Dunn despite similar offensive production: defense matters.

Teix is indeed a much better overall player than Dunn (aside: the Sox would have signed Dunn as the DH if Papi weren't around - talk about a bargain contract for the production), but again, that's not the point, and we're not talking about Dunn. The Sox made a play for Teix, and now he's off the table, so Theo needs to explore all options to replace the offense lost by Manny's departure and to stay ahead of the current and future declines of currently rostered players.

At this point in your post, you've made several stupid assertions but this paragraph is just lazy. The Tigers are in first place in a wide open AL Central.

Go reread. I said that I initially thought the Tigers would be much worse than they are, but that given a collapse, they could decide to seriously retool. For further clarification (and I meant to write this in my original post): the economy may yet play a role in moves made by ballclubs, especially by those like the Tigers who hail from one of the hardest hit cities in the country. You cannot discount money or lack thereof as motivation for a big trade.

Finally, if I were Dambrowski I would absolutely NOT trade Cabrera - I think it would be a stupid move for the Tigers. However, you need to remember that this thread is based upon options for the Sox, and you'd be kidding yourself if you think Theo doesn't have his eye on the very best players in the game. Everyone can be had for a price, and it's my opinion that the Sox should explore what that bounty would be for Miggy regardless of a trade's perceived plausibility.

[snowmanny]

This thread has included some pretty wacky trade suggestions, the prime ones being Miguel Cabrera and JJ Hardy.

Let's all agree to a filter. The standings. Look at the standings and see if the team is above .500 and within a few games of 1st place (or in 1st place). Don't suggest trades for established star players of that team. It's not going to happen. Milwaukee will not trade JJ Hardy in the middle of a pennant race unless they have pictures of him committing unspeakable crimes. Even if Detroit was out of contention, they may not trade Cabrera who is one of the few elite young stars. Keep the discussion reasonable. Look at the players on teams like the Indians and the Nationals, not the Brewers and the Tigers.

You're probably right, although I have a dim recollection of Theo Epstein trading an established star or two while the Red Sox still had an outside shot at the playoffs. Point being, some of the players Boston has to offer in trade could have immediate impact for certain teams. Such as Bowden or Buchholz or Lowell
or Delacarmen or Bard or Lowrie.

Edit: Translating into English

Edited by snowmanny, 22 May 2009 - 07:34 PM.

[Beomoose]

Just so everyone is clear:

THE DETROIT TIGERS ARE NOT GOING TO TRADE MIGUEL CABRERA NO MATTER WHAT WE OFFER THEM. HE IS NOT A TRADE OPTION.

Thank you.

[Lollardfish]

You're probably right, although I have a dim recollection of Theo Epstein trading an established star or two while the Red Sox still had an outside shot at the playoffs. Point being, some of the players Boston has to offer in trade could have immediate impact for certain teams. Such as Bowden or Buchholz or Lowell
or Delacarmen or Bard or Lowrie.

Edit: Translating into English

The SS who is an obvious trade target is Miguel Tejada. He's hitting extremely well, is healthy, is not a great fielder of course, costs 13 million, and then becomes an FA. Houston, meanwhile, is at the bottom of the NL Central. Assuming he continued to hit, one could probably be reasonably satisfied with the continued lack of fielding at the position. I'm not advocating this, mind, just in looking for obvious candidates he's the one who stands out.

[Beomoose]

The SS who is an obvious trade target is Miguel Tejada. He's hitting extremely well, is healthy, is not a great fielder of course, costs 13 million, and then becomes an FA. Houston, meanwhile, is at the bottom of the NL Central. Assuming he continued to hit, one could probably be reasonably satisfied with the continued lack of fielding at the position. I'm not advocating this, mind, just in looking for obvious candidates he's the one who stands out.

If he's the one that stands out I think we have to look for the one blending in. Tejada has a hot bat this season, but the Astros are going to demand a steep price for a guy who is 34, not a great fielder, and an FA at the end of the year. How about someone with +defense, so we can actually make those DPs thats everyone we face make with ease?

[Lollardfish]

If he's the one that stands out I think we have to look for the one blending in. Tejada has a hot bat this season, but the Astros are going to demand a steep price for a guy who is 34, not a great fielder, and an FA at the end of the year. How about someone with +defense, so we can actually make those DPs thats everyone we face make with ease?

That's certainly true. Any idea who "the one blending in" might be? I'm not advocating a deal for Tejada, he's just the guy who seemed likely to be dealt.

None of the other potential FAs are clear upgrades offensively, though some might be defensively. None of the other cellar teams have soon-to-be expensive (even if not FAs) short-stops that I have noticed, though I'm happy to be corrected on that.

I just don't see a SS out there who is a defensive wizard with a little offensive potential, which is the style of player I'd like to find.

[CaptainLaddie]

This is a yearly issue that comes up, but why do people believe that teams will trade us good players for players who have been-- well-- not good on the Sox.

You can't just throw our garbage together and get a piece of gold.

I love it because it makes me figure out who to pink.

[Quintanariffic]

If he's the one that stands out I think we have to look for the one blending in. Tejada has a hot bat this season, but the Astros are going to demand a steep price for a guy who is 34, not a great fielder, and an FA at the end of the year. How about someone with +defense, so we can actually make those DPs thats everyone we face make with ease?

If anyone thinks the Sox are going to expend prospects to fill a hole at SS before they see what they have in a healthy (and minimum wage) Lowrie, they are kidding themselves. Face it, folks - we're just going to have to suck it up for the next six weeks, as unpalatable as that may seem.

[jtn46]

Thank you.

Seriously. They just got the guy. We might as well start discuss acquiring Pujols.

While we're here doing this, no one is taking Lugo or Lowell, especially mid-season, unless we throw in a really good player. Lugo is a glorified utility player. Lowell, I don't know, if Ortiz sustains an injury Lowell probably becomes the everyday DH.


Wood is intriguing. I don't think he's a shorstop, or at least, that's the only logical reason the Angels aren't playing him there. They're not a good offensive club...if they had a SS capable of slugging well over .500, they'd play him...only 2 guys in baseball are accomplishing that, Hanley and Bartlett, who will regress any minute now. The Angels probably see Wood as a 3B and want to hang onto him in case Figgins bolts as a FA in the offseason. That probably means they'd part with him, but he's going to be much cheaper when they resolve that situation with Figgins.

So, the questions for the Sox FO right now:

-If Wood is indeed sub-par defensively, are they willing to tolerate that given his upside at the plate?
-If they're not, in the next few seasons holes may develop in LF, at 3B and potentially at DH. Do they believe enough in Wood's ability to hit to give up a lot to get him?

If he were a SS, Buchholz would be a fair price. If he's not, it's too high. I agree with the sentiment as well that Buchholz isn't going anywhere.

Edited by jtn46, 24 May 2009 - 12:52 AM.

[BrooklynDog45]

Is Orlando Cabrera not even an option to upgrade SS? Meaning will management be OK with him coming back for a half season. If the Sox could match up the piece they get for Penny with what Oakland might be looking for there would be no need to raid minor leagues. I know the Sox are putting out there Lowrie will be back but when and how effective will he be. I think its to big a risk to bank on Lowrie's return as the only SS solution. If he comes back healthy and playing well and they upgrade with Cabrera, Lowrie can take Green's role as utility IF because Lowell will need more days off in the second half.

Edited by BrooklynDog45, 24 May 2009 - 07:21 AM.

[Bowlerman9]

Is Orlando Cabrera not even an option to upgrade SS? Meaning will management be OK with him coming back for a half season. If the Sox could match up the piece they get for Penny with what Oakland might be looking for there would be no need to raid minor leagues. I know the Sox are putting out there Lowrie will be back but when and how effective will he be. I think its to big a risk to bank on Lowrie's return as the only SS solution. If he comes back healthy and playing well and they upgrade with Cabrera, Lowrie can take Green's role as utility IF because Lowell will need more days off in the second half.

Handshakes aside, how on earth is Cabrera an upgrade over Nick Green? Unless defense is 90% of a shortstops value, Green has him beat hands down.

[EP Sox Fan]

Handshakes aside, how on earth is Cabrera an upgrade over Nick Green? Unless defense is 90% of a shortstops value, Green has him beat hands down.

To build on your post, so far this season, Green has a 0.12 WPA for the season and has a 1.8 UZR and UZR/150 of 12.8 at SS. He also has a respectable 21.3% LD rate and a .367OBP. As a contrast. Cabrera has -.060 WPA, and surprisingly (with the usual SS caveat) -2.4 UZR and a -6.6 UZR/150 with a less encouraging 17.2 LD% and a 42 GB%. Cabrera's OBP, never a strong suit, is a pathetically low .284. While his BABIP is .253 and will probably regress to the mean, his low LD% and hight GB% seem to indicate that he's not hitting the ball with much authority.

As far as the fielding goes, Cabrera has a much stronger track record with a career UZR of 42.7 at SS (Green has a 1.0UZR in 300 innings at SS). However, he's been a bit erratic over the last 5 years with UZRs of -2.3, 19.9, -1.4, 8.0 and 14.0. Given that a lot of his perceived value is in his defense and that he's not lighting the world on fire with his defense so far this season, it does not appear that he's a far superior option to Green. There are some other options out there that are superior to the black hole of suck that is Julio Lugo and the relatively mediocre Nick Green, but Orlando Cabrera's not one of them.

[YTF]

I'll speak in general terms because this is just May 24th, but this may be a trade market unlike any we have seen. It has been suggested that many teams, particularly small market teams, will look to dump payroll as early as they can reasonably assume that they are out of the playoff picture. It should be a buyers market this season as we could potentially see more sellers AND some of those sellers may be looking to move multiple players. The Sox could be the ultimate buyer in this market as they have the finances and many desirable young players. Perhaps what some might see as a surplus. They will be on everyone's short list of teams to do business with and SHOULD be in the position to make any deal that they feel they need to make. There are issues to address for sure. Shortstop, DH and perhaps even Left Field. I also think that it is quite possible that they may pull the trigger on a corner infielder or top notch starting pitcher IF the deal is right. The Sox should be in a great position to make a deal and look forward to seeing what happens.

[Jnai]

WPA is a "story stat". Like RBI, it reflects not only your performance but the context in which that performance occurred.

It can tell us who was instrumental in a win, who had the big hits, or who had some big squanders, but it has little predictive value because players can't control the context in which they hit. So, it's meaningful, but it's not really predictive of future performance, so it probably shouldn't be a reason to trade (or not trade) a player.

On that note, your sad WPA of the day: David Ortiz has the 6th worst WPA in the league. In 2007, it was the 8th best.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

The SOSH board will hate this trade because it only makes sense for the short term its renting and it will cause the sox some money and contract missery down the road.

Trade Kason Gabbard and some other piece of do do to Cincinatti for Alex Gonzales. Either dump Lugo on someone eating contract, play him as a backup or have him crowbarred in the leg buy Jim Galooley.... Play Gonzales till Lowrie is healthy. When Lowrie is healthy send Green away. Have Lowrie be either a supersub/utility guy until he's fully healed (may take the rest of the year to get full strength back. Let Gonzo vaccuum everything up that is hit to SS and have him hit for a .650 to .700 OPS with a miniscule amount of occasional pop.... Pay his 6mil prorarted sal and cry while you do it, but atleast the pitchers don't shit there pants on every routine play at SS.

Then you make it to the playoffs and when our starters get hot you have another banner without dealing the kids...

Trade Kris Johnson , Doubront and Hunter Jones/Cox/Place (1 of those guys) plus Penny to Texas for Max Ramirez.

Call up Bowden and I am an Idiot , one for the Pen one for 5th starter...

aquire a decent "old player skills" power hitter like Dunn for money Kottaras and Capellon....

Be good for now and upgrade Catcher for the future

these seem more likely deal , the kind that are more plausible than trading for Cabrera or Hanley Ramirez....

Cet

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 24 May 2009 - 07:11 PM.

[Rough Carrigan]

The SOSH board will hate this trade because it only makes sense for the short term its renting and it will cause the sox some money and contract missery down the road.

Trade Kason Gabbard and some other piece of do do to Cincinatti for Alex Gonzales. Either dump Lugo on someone eating contract, play him as a backup or have him crowbarred in the leg buy Jim Galooley.... Play Gonzales till Lowrie is healthy. When Lowrie is healthy send Green away. Have Lowrie be either a supersub/utility guy until he's fully healed (may take the rest of the year to get full strength back. Let Gonzo vaccuum everything up that is hit to SS and have him hit for a .650 to .700 OPS with a miniscule amount of occasional pop.... Pay his 6mil prorarted sal and cry while you do it, but atleast the pitchers don't shit there pants on every routine play at SS.

Then you make it to the playoffs and when our starters get hot you have another banner without dealing the kids...

Trade Kris Johnson , Doubront and Hunter Jones/Cox/Place (1 of those guys) plus Penny to Texas for Max Ramirez.

Call up Bowden and I am an Idiot , one for the Pen one for 5th starter...

aquire a decent "old player skills" power hitter like Dunn for money Kottaras and Capellon....

Be good for now and upgrade Catcher for the future

these seem more likely deal , the kind that are more plausible than trading for Cabrera or Hanley Ramirez....

Cet

FWIW, John Dewan's Fielding Bible ratings have never loved Alex Gonzalez. They rated him as barely better than average the year he was on the Sox (2006) and the next year. This year, it rates him as below average, essentially even with . . . Nick Green. Gonzalez was never that good on plays to the hole toward third, I think.

And I don't know why the Nats would trade you Adam Dunn for detritus. Their payroll's low enough and they get enough money from MLB that they probably don't need to do that and certainly not for Georgie and Capellon. And do you have any idea whether Max Ramirez can catch Wake or anyone else? His defensive rep is extremely bad.

Edited by Rough Carrigan, 24 May 2009 - 10:25 PM.

[D Jack's Dome]

That's certainly true. Any idea who "the one blending in" might be? I'm not advocating a deal for Tejada, he's just the guy who seemed likely to be dealt.

None of the other potential FAs are clear upgrades offensively, though some might be defensively. None of the other cellar teams have soon-to-be expensive (even if not FAs) short-stops that I have noticed, though I'm happy to be corrected on that.

I just don't see a SS out there who is a defensive wizard with a little offensive potential, which is the style of player I'd like to find.

Omar Vizquel.

[SoxScout]

Edes:

The Boston Red Sox have been scouting underachieving Atlanta outfielder Jeff Francoeur as they look to improve their outfield depth, especially in right field. J.D. Drew has had back and shoulder issues and seldom makes it through a season without breaking down, while his backup, Rocco Baldelli(notes), has ongoing medical concerns that make his availability suspect.

Francoeur, 25, hasn’t regained the power stroke that netted him 29 home runs in 2006, his first full season in the big leagues, but some scouts are convinced a change of scenery would do him wonders. And his durability is unquestioned – Francoeur did not miss a game in 2006 and ’07 and played in 155 in 2008.

With David Ortiz(notes) slumping, the Red Sox also have demonstrated some interest in Johnson, though it cooled when the Nationals asked for prime pitching prospect Michael Bowden(notes) in return.

Anyone else super excited about this possibility?!

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005	70	257	41	77	20	1	14	45	11	58	3	2	.300	.336	.549	.885
2006	162	651	83	169	24	6	29	103	23	132	1	6	.260	.293	.449	.742
2007	162	642	84	188	40	0	19	105	42	129	5	2	.293	.338	.444	.782
2008	155	599	70	143	33	3	11	71	39	111	0	1	.239	.294	.359	.653
2009	44	170	23	44	5	2	3	21	5	24	1	1	.259	.282	.365	.647

[SoxScout]

Also from Edes:

In the non-Peavy category, Boston’s Brad Penny looms as the most logical starting pitcher to be moved, with teams that can’t afford another No. 1 such as Peavy lining up to take a crack. The Phillies, Brewers, Royals and possibly the Twins look like teams that could be in play for Penny, who is 5-1 with a 5.96 ERA in Boston but is dispensable because John Smoltz(notes) is on the rehab trail and Clay Buchholz(notes) threw eight perfect innings Monday at Triple-A Pawtucket.

An Indians star could also head the market for shortstops if Shapiro decides to play seller. Jhonny Peralta(notes) might make a great match for Boston, which is unhappy with the play of veteran Julio Lugo(notes) while awaiting the return of injured second-year man Jed Lowrie(notes). Peralta might also provide the Red Sox a replacement down the road at third base for Mike Lowell(notes), who has defied expectations with his productive play after off-season hip surgery.

Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson(notes) also has attracted interest, while the Red Sox could conceivably make a play for Phillies shortstop/third base prospect Jason Donald(notes) in a Penny deal.

[TheYellowDart5]

Jack Wilson is a black hole offensively. Doesn't walk, doesn't hit for power. UZR has him all over the place while in Pittsburgh. Has been totally unable to stay healthy the last couple of years. There's no way that Lowrie can't produce what Wilson already does, or better.

Peralta's been terrible this year despite a high BABIP (.337). Low LD rate and more groundballs and pop-ups than ever. Bad defensive shortstop too.

I hate to say it, but will either of those guys really eclipse even the pathetic play that Lugo's been providing?

[NomarRS05]

Peralta was a top-five OPS shortstop in 2008. He is also one of only three shortstops to hit over 20 HR each of the last two seasons. I think he'd be a strong addition, though I wouldn't necessarily hand him the full-time starting SS position because of his suspect defense and slow start this year. But a Lowrie-Peralta platoon seems like a palatable solution.

Edited by NomarRS05, 26 May 2009 - 10:52 PM.

[Ed Hillel]

To me, the only shortstop that may be available out there that's worth trading for (at least by the trading deadline) is Hanley. Wilson, Gonzalez, Cabrera, etc. really aren't that significant of an upgrade over Lowrie, if they are at all, and it's not worth it to give up anyone, considering he should be back before the AS break. I'd much prefer they wait until the trade deadline and offer a package involving Buchholz, Bard, Lars, and Lowrie or some combination thereof should Hanley become available. Otherwise, ride for the rest of the season with Lowrie.

Edited by Ed Hillel, 26 May 2009 - 11:08 PM.

[TomRicardo]

To me, the only shortstop that may be available out there that's worth trading for (at least by the trading deadline) is Hanley. Wilson, Gonzalez, Cabrera, etc. really aren't that significant of an upgrade over Lowrie, if they are at all, and it's not worth it to give up anyone, considering he should be back before the AS break. I'd much prefer they wait until the trade deadline and offer a package involving Buchholz, Bard, Lars, and Lowrie or some combination thereof should Hanley become available. Otherwise, ride for the rest of the season with Lowrie.

Hanley's not available. That package probably would not be enough if Hanley was available. Get off Hanley. It will only cause you heartbreak and confusion much like the tall girl with broad shoulders and the deep voice at the end of the bar.

[amarshal2]

To me, the only shortstop that may be available out there that's worth trading for (at least by the trading deadline) is Hanley. Wilson, Gonzalez, Cabrera, etc. really aren't that significant of an upgrade over Lowrie, if they are at all, and it's not worth it to give up anyone, considering he should be back before the AS break. I'd much prefer they wait until the trade deadline and offer a package involving Buchholz, Bard, Lars, and Lowrie or some combination thereof should Hanley become available. Otherwise, ride for the rest of the season with Lowrie.

You know what really doesn't make sense? Trading four guys, FOUR GUYS, who are all likely to be MLB regulars with all-star upside for ONE guy. That's a generation of players and what the Red Sox have worked very hard to build. I don't care how good that player is, there's 25 players on a MLB team and trades like that one are just bad business and a gross waste of resources.

If Hanley is available for 2 big pieces (Buchholz, Bowden, Lars, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and to a lesser extent Bard) and a complimentary piece then maybe that's a trade that makes sense for both sides. Additionally, the rumors this off-season were that they offered Buchholz and Ellsbury. If the rumors are to be believed, it seems like the Sox think Hanley is better suited for CF since they didn't offer Lowrie and it's likely they would be stuck with Lugo regardless. Of course, they're just rumors and that might be me reading too deep into it and revealing my own bias but most of the evidence suggests he's not even an average SS making him less desirable in terms of filling this specific hole. The Sox pitching staff needs improved defense pretty badly.

Either way, until it is announced that Hanley is on the market, I see it as wishful thinking and a waste of time.

Sorry. Back to your regularly scheduled programing.

[TomRicardo]

You know what really doesn't make sense? Trading four guys, FOUR GUYS, who are all likely to be MLB regulars with all-star upside for ONE guy. That's a generation of players and what the Red Sox have worked very hard to build. I don't care how good that player is, there's 25 players on a MLB team and trades like that one are just bad business and a gross waste of resources.

If Hanley is available for 2 big pieces (Buchholz, Bowden, Lars, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and to a lesser extent Bard) and a complimentary piece then maybe that's a trade that makes sense for both sides. Additionally, the rumors this off-season were that they offered Buchholz and Ellsbury. If the rumors are to be believed, it seems like the Sox think Hanley is better suited for CF since they didn't offer Lowrie and it's likely they would be stuck with Lugo regardless. Of course, they're just rumors and that might be me reading too deep into it and revealing my own bias but most of the evidence suggests he's not even an average SS making him less desirable in terms of filling this specific hole. The Sox pitching staff needs improved defense pretty badly.

Either way, until it is announced that Hanley is on the market, I see it as wishful thinking and a waste of time.

Sorry. Back to your regularly scheduled programing.

You don't get how trading prospects work do you? You trade lottery tickets for a sure commodity. None of those guys are sure commodities. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if Ellsbury was no longer starting for us in three years. Lowrie still has questions at short, Bard is probably never going to be more than Farnsworth Redux. Lars still strikes out way too much though is still promising because of his age. And Bowden is probably never going to be more than a 2/3 pitcher at best.

The question isn't if that is too much it is if it is enough which it probably isn't.

[amarshal2]

Hanley's not available. That package probably would not be enough if Hanley was available. Get off Hanley. It will only cause you heartbreak and confusion much like the tall girl with broad shoulders and the deep voice at the end of the bar.

Seriously? If the Red Sox offered Buchholz, Lars, and.... Pimentel.... how does anyone top that? There's maybe 4-5 teams in MLB that are even capable of topping that out of their farm systems (TB, Tex, SF, Oak, Balt) and all 4 of them need the players it would take to acquire Hanley very badly. Unlike the Red Sox they have big holes and small payrolls. The other big market teams don't have the farm systems to match the trades or the MLB depth to pull something big off.

You don't get how trading prospects work do you? You trade lottery tickets for a sure commodity. None of those guys are sure commodities. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if Ellsbury was no longer starting for us in three years. Lowrie still has questions at short, Bard is probably never going to be more than Farnsworth Redux. Lars still strikes out way too much though is still promising because of his age. And Bowden is probably never going to be more than a 2/3 pitcher at best.

The question isn't if that is too much it is if it is enough which it probably isn't.

Yeah, that's it. Remember the last time we had this little spat? You can check it out in the Johan thread from 18 months ago.

edit: And I'll be the first to tell you that Bard might be Farnsworth, Bowden is a #3/4, and Ellsbury has competition coming up from the minor leagues. You still don't make those trades.

Edited by amarshal2, 26 May 2009 - 11:45 PM.

[TomRicardo]

Yeah, that's it. Remember the last time we had this little spat? You can check it out in the Johan thread from 18 months ago.

Yea pretty awesome we have Lester and Ellsbury right now instead of Santana.

edit: And I'll be the first to tell you that Bard might be Farnsworth, Bowden is a #3/4, and Ellsbury has competition coming up from the minor leagues. You still don't make those trades.

Yes, the Red Sox always get screwed by these. Why oh why did we give up all those prospects to get Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, and Lowell. We could have been seeing players flame out left and right instead have two WS championships.

In all those trades the only player that amounted to anything was Hanley.