[Carmen Fanzone]

Yeah, it's May. And if a Dope finds this thread too early for the main board then they can certainly lock it.

But the Ortiz thread has dealved pretty deep into trade talk, much of it initially surrounding Nick Johnson but now wandering pretty far afield. And Carl Everett's Therapist's misguided attempt at a thread touched on many of the same issues. So, apparently, there's an appetite out there for discussing potential trades.

In the interest of confining them to a single thread, if nothing else, I've taken the initiative of starting one.

I'll repeat my target stated a few weeks ago - Lance Berkman. The Astros are going nowhere, he's owed about $26-$28 million in 2009/10/buyout, and he'd give the team some options surrounding DH, first base, even a little OF. He'd be off the books about the time Lars projects to be ready. Is Bard too much to pay for that if Ortiz doesn't turn around by a month from now?

Though to kill my own thread before it starts, let me say I found the "do nothing" Ortiz solution of simply rotating present players through the DH slot somewhat appealing as a short-term solution.

OK, SoSH. Put your trade targets, and their expected costs, here.

[veritas]

Is Bard too much to pay for that if Ortiz doesn't turn around by a month from now?

Is that a serious question? No way Houston would ever make that trade. One of the best offensive players in baseball for an unproven relief pitcher?

I don't think Bard + Bowden is too much to pay for Berkman. But I doubt that would be enough to get him.

[pokey_reese]

I think that we need to also break this discussion down a little further, as the Sox could go in several directions in an attempt to replace the production that they were expecting from Ortiz, not to mention the rest of the line-up and the rotation, although those areas are a little more settled.

We could go after the stop-gap, lower cost veteran like Johnson, who still wouldn't come cheap.

We could go after a top-tier rental like the Big Puma, which is less likely simply because he is too old to extend and the Sox haven't been partial to giving up a lot of young talent for a short window of any player.

We could look to exchange prospects, as in the theoretical La Porta deal, or likewise the theortical fit with Brandon Wood.

Or we could look to make a blockbuster move for an established major league star who is still young enough to be worth keeping around for a while, such as Victor Martinez, Adrian Gonzalez, or Matt Holliday.

None of these options are going to come cheap, and some will not even be possible until closer to the end of July, which may have an impact if the FO doesn't think that the team can live with Ortiz for another 2+ months.

edit: fixed the prospect swap portion to reflect the hypothetical nature of such talk, and added Wood.

This post has been edited by pokey_reese: 20 May 2009 - 02:40 PM

[Carmen Fanzone]

Is that a serious question? No way Houston would ever make that trade. One of the best offensive players in baseball for an unproven relief pitcher?

Sorry, my bad. I added that line before I posted when i realized I'd violated my own rule and not listed a price.

I meant to type "Bowden+" and for some reason typed "Bard" instead. Brain fart.

In my mind, the question is when the Astros see the light and realize they are not going to contend at any point in the course of Berkman's deal and decide to rebuild. Let's see what happens to attendance and revenue in that market over the next month.

[czar]

We could look to exchange prospects, as in the La Porta deal.

I hate the idea of trade threads discussing blockbusters halfway through May, but LaPorta wasn't a "prospect exchange;" he went over in the CC Sabathia deal.

[Yaz4Ever]

I hate the idea of trade threads discussing blockbusters halfway through May, but LaPorta wasn't a "prospect exchange;" he went over in the CC Sabathia deal.

I'm pretty sure he was referring to the Jayson Stark, Buster Olney - someone at ESPN - mentioning that the Sox might be interested in dealing some prospects for LaPorta, not the deal that sent LaPorta from MIL for Sabathia. He hasn't exactly set the world on fire since taking over for the injured Hafner, but I'd like to see them kick the tires on a deal for him or another young guy like the more-established and under-appreciated (not by the savants here, by the regular baseball fans) Adrian Gonzalez.

[czar]

I'm pretty sure he was referring to the Jayson Stark, Buster Olney - someone at ESPN - mentioning that the Sox might be interested in dealing some prospects for LaPorta, not the deal that sent LaPorta from MIL for Sabathia. He hasn't exactly set the world on fire since taking over for the injured Hafner, but I'd like to see them kick the tires on a deal for him or another young guy like the more-established and under-appreciated (not by the savants here, by the regular baseball fans) Adrian Gonzalez.

Okay, it was Olney. Almost seems like more of a throwaway line, but I see where it came from.

[jp]

I think that, in terms of throwing out ideas, it would be best to also take the following into account when evaluating them:

- how the option being thrown out compares to the internal option(s) of Carter/Bailey
- how much salary would be taken on, for how long the acquired player is signed and where they are in their career

[pokey_reese]

Okay, it was Olney. Almost seems like more of a throwaway line, but I see where it came from.

Yeah, I was referring to the Olney-inspired rumor, though for what it's worth it has been mentioned in a few places now, Steve Phillips mentioned "the discussion" about such a trade in his chat, and a poster on a Cleveland site mentioned that he read about it cropping up in the context of a discussion between Theo and Shapiro about a deal involving Victor Martinez + La Porta for I am an Idiot + Lars + ?. I am not saying that there is anything to it (frankly, I wouln't be surprised if this was all purely rumor-mongering), just thought that it provided a good example of a potential prospect swap.

I would much rather pay Buchholz/Bowden + Lars for Adrian Gonzalez, but I think that this is the third time I have said so in a week, so I will leave it at that.

This post has been edited by pokey_reese: 20 May 2009 - 02:44 PM

[Tony C]

People in my strat league will laugh at me since both my targets are on my team, which just goes to show how blinkered i am.

Major Lg target: Adam Dunn.
Seems to me to be ideal, and there was if I recall debate on this board about signing him during the off-season.
-Is he dealable? Of course -- the Nats only have him signed through this year and would be a coup for them to spend a few million on him, get good production for a bit, and then deal him off for real live prospects of which they have desperate need. I doubt Dunn wants to be in D.C. long term, so I don't think there's a downside for the Nats. To the contrary, the only thing in which they're well stocked is lumbering D.H./OF types like him, and they could put Willingham right into his place.

-the price? I tend to think it'd be less than someone like Berkman as Dunn is sort of a rent-a-player. The basics would be the same: prospect pitching. I don't think it'd reach the Buccholz level, but Bard or Bowden +

-the fit? what's good about Dunn is that he has a certain versatility....within obvious limits. But can obviously DH if Ortiz is deemed toast. Can play 1B (not well) if Lowell or Youk are out. And can play LF if Drew, Bay, or Ellsbury need rest/are injured.

And the kid can hit.

Minor Lg target: Kila Ka'aihue
Dealable/price? KC is stocked at 1B/DH with Jacobs, Butler, Shealy ahead of Ka'aihue, and after a huge year last season KC acquired Jacobs so they don't seem to think too highly of him.
Fit? More of a DH replacement, though I guess is acceptable at 1B if Lowell or Youk have problems.

[pokey_reese]

Minor Lg target: Kila Ka'aihue
Dealable/price? KC is stocked at 1B/DH with Jacobs, Butler, Shealy ahead of Ka'aihue, and after a huge year last season KC acquired Jacobs so they don't seem to think too highly of him.
Fit? More of a DH replacement, though I guess is acceptable at 1B if Lowell or Youk have problems.

BP mentioned the (deep) fryin' Hawaiian on Monday:

Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, Royals (Triple-A Omaha)
After leading the minors in on-base percentage last year while finishing second in slugging, Ka'aihue's slow start had many wondering if his 2008 season was just some kind of mirage, with the Royals' strange acquisition of Mike Jacobs adding to the feeling that maybe there's something here that we just don't get. So much for that. With home runs on Friday and Sunday as part of a five-game surge that has seen him go 10-for-20 with three doubles, four home runs, and five walks, the big Hawaiian is suddenly batting .270/.439/.548 overall, and everything seems normal again.

[Bowlerman9]

Dunn signed a 2 year deal so he would not be a rent a player and would probably cost a lot more than a "rental".

[Ananti]

They should have just signed Dunn in the off season as insurance. There was a reasonable chance that Ortiz would not be able to perform, and if he was healthy you can move Dunn later anyway.

I would not trade Buchholz for any rent-a-player.

[Bowlerman9]

I would not trade Buchholz for any rent-a-player.

I'm not sure if this is a generic throw away line - if so - I completely agree.

If you are referring to Dunn as a rent-a-player, he is signed for another year and a half at a very reasonable salary. If you acquire him (which would basically stick a fork in Ortiz), you would not only have him for this year (8M) and next (12M), but you would have a chance to sign him to a long term deal if you believe that the depressed market in 2008 will rebound this off-season.

Basically, if the Sox acquired Dunn, he would be your Ortiz insurance this year and your off-season insurance for Bay leaving.

Not saying I would trade Buchholz for Dunn, just saying Dunn is in no way a "rent-a-player."

[mabrowndog]

I think that, in terms of throwing out ideas, it would be best to also take the following into account when evaluating them:

- how the option being thrown out compares to the internal option(s) of Carter/Bailey
- how much salary would be taken on, for how long the acquired player is signed and where they are in their career

- to what extent any expected increase in production would contribute to wins and a postseason berth.

This post has been edited by mabrowndog: 20 May 2009 - 03:54 PM

[koufax32]

Something that needs to be brought up is what would happen to Papi in all of this? If a bigger deal were made would he be part of it or would he be expected to go from demi-god to pine rider?

[Tony C]

Dunn signed a 2 year deal so he would not be a rent a player and would probably cost a lot more than a "rental".

ah, my apologies, thought it was a 1-year deal. you're right, that would increase the price, though I still think given that he's excess on a poorly constructed roster, the Natinals would be willing to deal him (or Johnson or Willingham).

[jippaman]

Miguel Cabrera. Trade The House. Get him, play him, watch him hit. Doesn't matter the casualties. IMO, there is no better pure bat this side of Pujols over the next five years.

(I'll defend this position in more detail later on when I have more time.)

[sachilles]

Something that needs to be brought up is what would happen to Papi in all of this? If a bigger deal were made would he be part of it or would he be expected to go from demi-god to pine rider?

That's the problem with the whole discussion.
If you bench him,he will never recover, and will have little value. Some team might pick him up cheap, and he'll either return to decent form and bite us in the butt, or he continues to struggle until a new team drops him.

I think that if you are going to operate on the premise that the RS need a trade for another bat, you need to find someone that is useful as more than just a dh. So when Papi gets things figured out, there is still a place for that bat to play on a regular basis.

Scenarios being

Ortiz gets put on the DL-You acquire a rental, and hope to retain that rental if they pan out(and Ortiz can't return to form).

Trade Ortiz-You acquire someone with a longer contract, and a high likelihood to perform on a regular basis. IF you pull the trigger on something like this, you'd better be bringing home a big name, otherwise the fans would go nuts. Keeping in mind you might have to lose someone else to make something like this happen. I also think any new "DH" will have to be able to play at least one position competently.

Ortiz gets put on the bench selectively-You acquire a rental, and hope to retain that rental if they pan out(and Ortiz can't return to form). OR you acquire a player than can play multiple positions adequately and do it better than the in house options.

None of these options seem appealing to me. The uncertainty of it, doesn't make it worth the risk in my opinion. I hate to see him struggle, but I think you just have to wait and see. If he can't get it together, I see him retiring on his own accord at the end of the season without any external pressure. I think he has too much pride to want to play in a diminished capacity.

[xjack]

The only name I've seen mentioned that makes sense is Victor Martinez. That way if Papi rebounds -- and I'm convinced he eventually will (though not to 2006 levels) -- at least you've got a player whom you can use to fill another offensive hole in the lineup.